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National Centers for Environmental Prediction:
An Overview
“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”
Dr. Louis W. UccelliniNational Centers for Environmental Prediction
Director
1
March 2, 2011
Visit ofSoutheastern University Research Association
2
Research, Development and Technology Infusion
Respond & Feedback
Respond & Feedback
NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services
IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD DistributeDistribute
ObserveObserve
Products & Forecast Services
To Serve Diverse Customer Base
e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency
Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation,
Health organizations (CDC…)
NCEP
Feedback
- Process- Assimilate- Predict
- Process- Assimilate- Predict
Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models
CentralGuidanceCentral
GuidanceLocal
OfficesLocal
Offices
Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.
3
Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service
NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products
Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services
Space Weather Prediction Center
NCEP Central OperationsClimate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center
National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center
Aviation Weather Center
4
5
What Does NCEP Do?
- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather
- International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts
- Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
- Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
“From the Sun to the Sea”
• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts
• Climate Seasonal Forecasts
• El Nino – La Nina Forecast
• Weather Forecasts to Day 7
• Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather)
• Aviation Forecasts and Warnings
• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings
5
6
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Week 2 Hazards Assessment
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
CPC
For
ecas
t L
ead
Tim
eF
orec
ast
Lea
d T
ime
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
TPCOPCHPC
SWPCAWCSPC
Service Center Perspective
Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8
Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :
NDFD, Days 4 -7
6-10 Day ForecastM
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Com
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Hyd
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Hyd
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Fir
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Hea
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Hea
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Avi
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Avi
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Seasonal Predictions
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Climate/WeatherLinkage
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Climate Forecast System
For
ecas
t L
ead
Tim
eF
orec
ast
Lea
d T
ime
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
Ocean ModelHYCOMWave Watch III
Global Forecast System
North American Forecast
Rapid Update Cycle for AviationDispersion Models for DHS
NCEP Model Perspective
Mar
itim
eM
arit
ime
Mar
itim
eM
arit
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Lif
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Pro
pert
yL
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& P
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Lif
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Pro
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yL
ife
& P
rope
rty
Spa
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tion
sS
pace
Ope
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ons
Spa
ce O
pera
tion
sS
pace
Ope
rati
ons
Rec
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ion
Rec
reat
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Rec
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Rec
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ion
Eco
syst
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cosy
stem
Eco
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Env
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Mgm
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Agr
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Hurricane – GFDL, WRFGLOFS BaysChesapeakeTampaDelaware
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
ChesapeakeTampa
DelawareADCIRC
8
Air QualityWRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model
Regional NAMWRF NMM
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Updatefor Aviation
ClimateCFSv2
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s Model Production Suite
MOM4
NOAH Land Surface Model
Coupled
Global DataAssimilation
Oceans
HYCOM
WAVEWATCH III
NAM/CMAQ
8
Regi
onal
DA
Regi
onal
DA
Satellites + Radar99.9%
3.5B Obs/Day
NOSPORTSGLOFS
Computing Capability
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
JULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANN
umbe
r of H
its (M
illio
ns)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
“reliable, timely and accurate”
• Transition to IBM Power 6 complete– Declared operational
August 12, 2009– 73.1 trillion calculations/sec– Factor of 4 increase over the
IBM Power5 – 156 POWER6 32-way nodes– 4,992 processors– 20 terabytes of memory – 330 terabytes of disk space– 3.5 billion observations/day– 27.8 million model fields/day
• Primary: Gaithersburg, MD• Backup: Fairmont, WV
– Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes
– Web access to models as they run on the CCS
2010
Examples of Forecast Metrics
10
11
12
13
• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
• CPC Climate Test Bed
• NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed
• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed
• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL
• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA
• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed
• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (CSDL and CO-OPS)
Test BedsService – Science Linkage
between the Operational and Research Communities
14
Joint Hurricane Testbed• Managed through the NOAA USWRP• Designed to accelerate R2O at the USWRP
• Principal Investigators apply for funding through NOAA• A seven member Steering Committee rates all proposals• Funded projects are tested during one or two hurricane seasons in conjunction
with NHC/EMC points of contact• At the project’s end, each are evaluated by NHC/EMC staff• Implementation of successful projects are then carried out by NHC/EMC
staff/PIs
• 1) Number of projects supported: 62– 50 completed, 35.5 accepted for operational implementation, 5 rejected– 9.5 completed but pending further investigation– 12 projects in process: 12
• 2) Number of projects implemented: 31.5– 10 numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO– 21.5 projects implemented by NHC– 4 projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by NHC: 4
15
Process
2001 – 2010 Summary
16
Hazardous Weather Testbed
• Jointly managed by NSSL, SPC and WFO Norman• Designed to accelerate the transition of promising new
meteorological insights and technologies into advances in forecasting and warning for hazardous mesoscale weather events throughout the United States
• Composed of two program areas– Experimental Forecast Program focuses on application of
cutting edge numerical weather prediction models to improve severe weather forecasts
• Accelerated Multi-Model Ensemble mesoscale application• Introduced probabilistic severe wx outlooks based on ensembles
– Experimental Warning Program tests research concepts and technology specifically aimed at short-fused warnings of severe convective weather
• Annual NOAA HWT Spring Experiment attracts about 100 researchers and forecasters to Norman each year. 17
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
• Partners: NASA, NOAA, and DoD (USAF &USN)• Mission: To accelerate use of satellite observations in partners’
operational environmental modeling systems• Keys to Success
– Common science priorities, coordinated efforts, shared results– Research based on operational needs – transitionable results– Balance Research Program
• ~ 40 External Projects 2000-2010• ~ 100 Internal Projects 2000-2010
• Notable Achievements– Community Radiative Transfer Model– Assimilation of Advanced Sensor Data
• AIRS, IASI, SSMIS, Winds, COSMIC – Joint OSSE System Development– Strong Outreach Program
• Annual Science Workshop• Joint Workshops – ECMWF, HFIP• Biennial Colloquium for Students 18
Advancing Climate Prediction:The Climate Test Bed
• Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office• Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research
communities
19
Mission• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the
climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services
Mission• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the
climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services
Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)
• Focus Areas– CFS Improvements– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems– Climate Forecast Products
• Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series• CPC/CTB - RISA Program• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program• Delivered unified statistical post-
processing after CFS version 1
Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)
• Focus Areas– CFS Improvements– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems– Climate Forecast Products
• Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series• CPC/CTB - RISA Program• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program• Delivered unified statistical post-
processing after CFS version 1
AOLOI
ProposalNCEP Collaborator
R2O
O2R
Improved products and
services
Research OperationsClimate Forecast
ProductsMME
CFS Improvements
• Reanalysis / Reforecasts
• Earth System Modeling
• Tropical oscillations
• Model physics
• Etc.
Res
earc
h T
op
ics
AOLOI
ProposalNCEP Collaborator
R2O
O2R
Improved products and
services
Research OperationsClimate Forecast
ProductsMME
CFS Improvements
• Reanalysis / Reforecasts
• Earth System Modeling
• Tropical oscillations
• Model physics
• Etc.
Res
earc
h T
op
ics
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
HydroMeteorological TestbedHydroMeteorological Testbed
Jointly managed by OAR/ESRL and HPC
Goal: To accelerate the transfer of scientific and technological innovations into operations to enhance HPC products and services
Roles:• Identify and test new techniques
to improve HPC forecasts• Provide training in new techniques to
HPC forecasters• Host visiting forecasters and scientists
Principal Collaborators:• Other NOAA Testbeds (e.g. HWT, JHT)• Forecasters and academia
Description
32
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
HMT-HPC Winter Weather ExperimentHMT-HPC Winter Weather ExperimentJan 10 – Feb 11, 2011Jan 10 – Feb 11, 2011
HRW-NMM ObservedHRW-ARWExperimental NAM
•14 participants (WFOs, SPC, AWC, HPC, EMC, ESRL, and COMET)
•Can high-resolution models improve Day 1 forecasts of precipitation type and amount?
•Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts?
OPC thoughts on an Ocean-Coastal Testbed
• Ocean Prediction Center within NOAA family• Traditional role
•Provides operational data and forecast services•Facilitate R2O by linking science and users
• Future Directions• An operational infrastructure to deliver relevant (e.g., clock driven) NOAA services• Enabling a broad range of NOAA applications (e.g., ocean, coastal, ecological) services• Must rely on NOAA (e.g., NOS) R&D resource and expertise for product development
• Potential testbed focus areas•Physical forecasts and guidance
•Storm Surge / Inundation• Wind Current Interactions
• Water quality services• Sea Surface Salinity data applications and assessments• Ocean Color data applications• Enhancement of Harmful Algal Blooms, service delivery
•Ensemble (probabilistic) approaches
23
Forces for Change
Model Region 1
Model Region 2
Global/Regional Model Domain
ESMF-based System
• Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite – SREF– NAEFS– Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP)
• Entering the JPSS era– More rapid access to
hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface
radiance data• All models run within ESMF
– Models run concurrently – Hybrid vertical coordinate– Coupled– Spanning all scales
• Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications
Land
Ocean
• Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems• Real-time operations require world’s largest computers• BIOLOGY/CHEMISTRY NOW BEING INCLUDED
Atmosphere
Cryosphere
Model Production Suite
24
25
Ecological Forecast System: Ongoing Prototype Projects
• Chesapeake Bay• Beach/Water Quality• Living Resource Distribution• Dissolved Oxygen Predictions• Harmful Algal Bloom• Disease Pathogen Progression
• Gulf Coast• Gulf of Maine• Great Lakes• California Current
Oysters, Fish, Sea nettles ...
Vibrio...
Satellite Images of Saharan Dust Moving Across Atlantic
Algal Blooms and Dead ZonesBarnacles, Muscles
Ecosystem Prediction
26Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007
• Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay
• Generated since 2002
• Important for water management and recreational purposes
* Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers
Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake BayCurrent Demonstration Ready for Transition*
• Many of the oceanic consequences of climate change can best be explored with realistic high-resolution global ocean climate models, like those now being developed at GFDL.
• Example below: The roles of ocean transport and microbial decay in determining the impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, explored with a 1/8° global ocean climate model in a collaboration between NOAA/GFDL & NOAA/OR&R.
Simulated Dissolved Oil Concentrations in the Mixed Layer on July 15, 2010
Reference: A. Adcroft, R. Hallberg, J.P. Dunne, B.L. Samuels, J.A. Galt, C.H. Barker and D.Payton (2010): Simulations of underwater plumes of dissolved oil in the Gulf of Mexico, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2010GL044689, in press.
Recent Research Highlight from GFDL: High-resolution Ocean Modeling of DWH
Recent Research Highlight from GFDL: High-resolution Ocean Modeling of DWH
Omitting Microbial Decay with Microbial Decay (6 day Half-life)
• The developer stopped work in December 2008 when NCWCP construction was 80% complete.
• In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government. This claim was dismissed without prejudice in August 2010. In October 2010, the developer filed an appeal; resolution of this appeal is pending.
• In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court. In response, the court appointed a “Receiver” to complete the project. In November 2010, the court approved the Receiver’s plan and granted the receiver permission to resume construction.
• In December 2010, the Receiver petitioned the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit for dismissal of the previous claim filed by Maryland Enterprises. The Federal Court granted the motion on February 9, 2011 and dismissed the claim filed by the developer.
• These actions cleared away all remaining legal obstacles for the restart of work on the NCWCP project.
• GSA’s goal is to reach project completion approximately 12 months after re-start of construction. GSA’s most current estimate for the building’s substantial completion is March 2012 with complete move-in by July 2012.
28
New Building Status
29
Summary
• NCEP is– Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products
from the “Sun to the Sea”– Continually improving collaborative forecasts – especially for
extreme events– Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air
and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach
– A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery
– Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services with national and international communities
29
Appendix
30
32
Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service
Space Weather Prediction Center
National Hurricane
Center
33
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Week 2 Hazards Assessment
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
CPC
For
ecas
t L
ead
Tim
eF
orec
ast
Lea
d T
ime
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
TPCOPCHPC
SWPCAWCSPC
Service Center Perspective
Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8
Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :
NDFD, Days 4 -7
6-10 Day ForecastM
arit
ime
Mar
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eM
arit
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Mar
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Lif
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& P
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Spa
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Ope
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Spa
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Ope
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ons
Rec
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ion
Rec
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ion
Rec
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ion
Rec
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Eco
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Eco
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Env
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Env
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Mgm
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Em
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Mgm
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Agr
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Agr
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Agr
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Agr
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Res
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Ene
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Ene
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Com
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Hyd
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Seasonal Predictions
CDAS/Reanl vs GFSNH/SH 500Hpa day 5
Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S)
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1980 1990 2000 2010
YEAR
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n
NH GFS
SH GFS
NH CDAS/R1
SH CDAS/R1
Record Scores
Record Improvement
35
Attribute Operational Configuration Q1FY11 Configuration
Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km
Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels
Humidity based clouds
100 km/64 levels
Variable CO2
AER SW & LW radiation
Prognostic clouds & liquid water
Retuned mountain blocking
Convective gravity wave drag
Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S
1/3 x 1 deg.
Assim depth 750 m
MOM-4 fully global
¼ x ½ deg.
Assim depth 4737 m
Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation
2-level LSM
No separate land data assim
4 level Noah model
GLDAS driven by obs precip
Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice
Coupling Daily 30 minutes
Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background
Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background
Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)
124/month (week 3-6)
Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11
36
National Environmental Modeling System FY11; Q3
12 km
4 km
6 km
3 km
3 km
1.5 km
1.33 km
Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) NonHydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (NMMB) -- Physics retuned for NMMB -- Additional data sets: Windsat, ASCAT, ACARS humidity, NOAA-19 (HIRS and AMSU-A), IASI radiances, AQUA (AMSU-A), GPS (radio occultation)
Parent (12 km) – 84 hrs
Children (6, 4 & 3 km) – 60 hrs
IMET (1.5 & 1.33 km) – 36 hrs
37
EUROSIP Update
• MOU signed in July 2010 to include NCEP as EUROSIP partner (along with ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMet)
• The EUROSIP hindcast data files have been downloaded to computers VAPOR and STRATUS (in restricted access directories)
• CPC has FY11 milestone to develop and test a seasonal multi-model ensemble forecast tool that combines CFS and EUROSIP
37
Day at which forecast loses useful skill (AC=0.6) N. Hemisphere 500hPa height calendar year means
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
NCEP/GFS
For
ecas
t d
ay
8.02d
39
2010(preliminary)