National Drought Plan

GAMBIA – UNCCD DROUGHT INITIATIVE

Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Natural

Resources, GIEPA Building

Pipeline Road, Gambia

Developed for the

The Drought Task Team

By

1. Mohammed Jaiteh, Focal Point, Drought Initiative

2. Alpha Jallow, UNFCCC Focal Point

3. Dr. Buba Manjang, Medical and Health Services

4. Bubu Pateh Jallow, National Consultant

Republic of the Gambia United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Content Page No.

Table of Contents i Forward iv Appreciations v Acronyms vi Executive Summary viii 1: BACKGROUND 1

1.1 Purpose, Scope, Goals and Objectives 2 1.1.1 Purpose 2 1.1.2 Scope 2 1.1.3 Goals 2 1.1.4 Objectives 3

1.2 Plan Development Process 3 2: RELATIONASHIP TO OTHER PLANS AND POLICIES 4

2.1 Related National and Sectoral Policies and Regulations 4 2.1.1 The National Climate Change Policy: 4 2.1.2 The Forestry Policy (2010-2019) and the Forest Regulations: 5 2.1.3 The Environment Policies 5 2.1.4The Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy (2009-2015) 6 2.1.5The Fisheries Policy, Act and Strategic Action Plan 6 2.1.6Water resources policies and regulations 6 2.1.7Tourism policy and regulations 6 2.1.8Health policy and regulations 7 2.1.9Education Policy and regulations 7 2.1.10Disaster Management Policy and Regulations 7 2.1.11Local government, land and physical planning policies and

regulations 7

2.2 Existing Programmes Addressing Issues of Drought 8 2.2.1 National Action Plan to Combat Desertification, Land

Degradation & Drought (NAP) 8

2.2.2 National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) 8 2.2.3 National Biodiversity Strategy Action Plan (NBSAP) 8 2.2.4 National Forestry Action Plan and Strategy (NFAP) 9

2.3 Importance of National Drought Plan 9 3: OVERVIEW OF DROUGHT IN THE COUNTRY 10

3.1 Historical Occurrences 10 3.2 Understanding drought (Meteorological, Agricultural, Hydrological and

Socioeconomic Drought) 11

3.2.1 Meteorological drought 12 3.2.2 Agricultural Drought 12 3.2.3 Hydrological Drought 13 3.2.4 Socioeconomic Drought 13

3.3 Drought Impacts by Sector: 13

i

ii

3.3.1 Agriculture 13 3.3.2 Livestock 14 3.3.3 Water Resources 15 3.3.4 Socio-economic 16

4: DROUGHT MONITORING, FORECASTING AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT 17 4.1 Drought Indices 17 4.2 Current Monitoring, Forecasting and data collection 17 4.3 Drought severity in all relevant sectors 18 4.4 A Drought Impact Assessment Methodology 18

5: DROUGHT RISK AND VULNERABILITY 19 5.1 The drought Risk and Vulnerability Assessment and GIS Mapping 19 5.2 Drought Risk Areas in Various Administrative areas 20

6: DROUGHT COMMUNICATION AND RESPONSE ACTIONS 23 6.1 Communication Goal and Objectives 23

6.1.1 Objective 1 23 6.1.2 Objective 2 23 6.1.3 Objective 3 24 6.1.4 Objective 4 24

6.2 Drought levels to be included in the Communication 25 6.3 Modes of Communication 26

6.3.1 Peer to Peer Communication 26 6.3.2 Regional contact list 26 6.3.3 Regional conference call or face-to-face Meetings 26

6.4 Declaration of Drought 26 6.5 Communication and Coordination Guidelines 29 6.6 Drought Response Actions 30

6.6.1 Declaration of Drought Conditions 30 7: DROUGHT MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS 31

7.1 National Water Resources Monitoring and Impact Assessment 33 7.2 Development of New and Alternative Water Sources 34 7.3 Water Conservation Practices/Public Education Awareness and Outreach 35 7.4 Legislation and Land Use Planning 36

7.4.1 Land Use Change 36

7.4.2 Land Use Policy and Planning 38 7.4.3 Legislature supporting Land Use Planning 39 7.4.4 Land Resource Tenure and Legislation in The Gambia 40

8: THE NATIONAL DROUGHT ACTION PLAN 41 8.1 Priority Implementation Actions 41 8.2 Future Updates and Revisions 53

9: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL DROUGHT ACTION PLAN 54 9.1 Drought Implementation Framework and Future Revision of the Plan 54 9.2 Partnerships and an Integrated Approach 54 9.3 Financing and resourcing the Natioal Drought Plan 55

10: MONITORING, REPORTING AND VERIFICATION 57 11: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 59

REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING 60

iii

LIST OF FIGURES Page No.

Figure 1: Evolution of rainfall indices in the Sahelian countries from 1950 to 2005 (Source: AGRHYMET Regional Centres, Niamey, Niger)

10

Figure 2: Country average rainfall trend from 1943 to 2008 (Source: DWR 2016 (community Sensitization on CC)

11

Figure 3: Proportion of households reporting different types of drought impacts Source: The Gambia Loss and Damage questionnaire survey, July–August 2012.

13

Figure 4: Current and Projected Rainfall of The Gambia shows decrease especially in the North Bank

20

Figure 5: Climate Change impacts include less that 600mm of rainfall to be received in The Gambia by 2100

21

Figure 6: Saline water intrusion upstream due to reduced freshwater recharge to the River and salt water flow from the Ocean into the Estuary of the River due to rising sea level.

22

Figure 7: Vegetation Map of The Gambia 22 Figure 8: Temporal Changes in Land Use and Land Cover of The Gambia from 1975

70m 2013

37

Figure 9: National land cover baseline map, January 2014 (GoTG/IFAD, 2015) 38 Figure 10: Panchromatic images taken from Earth Observation Satellites 38

List of Tables Page No.

Table 1: Vulnerability of key sectors to drought hazards 19 Table 2: Summary of the different levels of drought conditions 25 Table 3: Drought Stages, Trigger Point Guidelines and Response Targets 28 Table 4: Showing a drought communication plan 30 Table 5: National and sub-National Agencies and their responsibilities in Drought

Management

32

Table 6: Main tenure types in the Gambia (Amie Bensuda& Co. 2013) 40 Table 7: National Drought Plan 43

iv

FORWARD

Drought is climate related and according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), climate change is

projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts, with impacts on many sectors, in

particularly food, water and energy. The Sahelian zone including The Gambia is particularly prone to drought. There

is the need to develop policies and strategies to address this insidious phenomenon and plan for the humanitarian

and development consequences of the drought related disasters that tighten their grip overtime, gradually destroying

lives and livelihoods. The planning process must move beyond a crisis-driven approach and develop integrated risk-

based national drought plan that provides an integrated overview of activities meeting the national and sub-national

needs and building resilience and sustainable livelihoods.

The Gambia National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in collaboration with other national

partners (MoA, MoHSW, MECCNAR, etc), Regional partners including the AGRHYMET and continental partners

including the African Centre for Meteorological Applications and Development (ACMAD) are making giant strides

to provide timely warnings and forecasts on droughts and other climate hazards to The Gambia. Models have been

developed to monitor rainfall, food crop water requirements satisfaction and prospective yields, the progress of

vegetation front and its different seasonal and inter-annual variations – phenomena that are negatively affected by

drought. Starting from May each year, a monitoring is implemented every 10 days at both regional and national

levels by the multidisciplinary working groups that issue decadal and/or monthly bulletins to inform decision makers

on the evolving agro-pastoral and hydrological situations. Those bulletins contain several chapters, going from the

interpretation of the results of the regional seasonal outlook forum on rainfall and hydrological forecasts, to the

analysis of the rainfall and hydrological situations, the progress of sowing, the assessment of crop water

requirements satisfaction and potential yields using field data and agro-meteorological models, the status of pastures

using vegetation indices, and the estimation of regional cereal/food balance. The information provided serves to

inform policy and decision making on a daily, seasonal and annual basis. The services from these organizations have

evolved from tackling only drought related issues to addressing all climate and climate change hazards, including

climate change impacts and adaptation assessments on agriculture, water resources fisheries and other key sectors of

the economy.

This National Drought Plan is linked to the National Climate Change Policy; the medium-term National

Development Plan (2018-2021); key climate and climate change strategies including the National Adaptation

Programme of Actions (NAPA), the Special Programme for Climate Resilience (SPCR), the Low Emissions Climate

Resilience Development Strategy; the Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Management (CCADM) and the

National Disaster Management Strategic Action Plan under the National Disaster Management Agency; and the

National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) process at country level. The Action Plan has priority implementation actions

that include (a) establishment of a Technical Drought Action Group; (b) compilation and publication of historical

and current statistical information on drought impacts around the country as a snapshot in time; (c) identification of

future vulnerabilities and impacts across sub-national and national jurisdiction and also across relevant sectors of the

economy; (d) identification, design and operationalization of an environment and climate change data base at the

National Meteorological Agency of The Gambia with nodes at relevant government departments; and (e) design and

implementation of a Comprehensive Water Resources Management Programme for The Gambia.

Monitoring and evaluation of the Plan will be assured with the development and implementation of a Monitoring,

Reporting and Verification Framework.

……………………………………………..

Honourable Minister

Ministry of Environment, Climate Change

and Natural Resources

v

APPRECIATIONS

The Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Natural Resources gratefully acknowledges the Global Mechanism of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification for the financial support that made possible the execution of the present study.

Special thanks and appreciation go to the Director of the Department of Forestry who is also the Focal Point of the Drought Initiative and Mr. Alpha Jallow, the UNFCCC Focal Point for their effective coordination and, constructive and thoughtful support throughout the project.

The development of this Plan was undertaken by the Drought Task Force that was constituted by the Director of Forestry and the UNFCCC Focal Point with close collaboration with the National Consultant

Sincere thanks to the following individuals and institutions for their unwavering support and collaboration during the study.

Mohammed Jaiteh, Focal Point, Drought Initiative

Alpha Jallow, UNFCCC Focal Point

Dr. Buba Manjang, Medical and Health Services

Bubu Pateh Jallow, National Consultant

…………………………………………………

Mr. Pateh Jah

Permanent Secretary

Ministry of Environment, Climate Change

and Natural Resources

vi

ACCRONYMS AFD French Development Agency

AGRHYMET Agriculture, Hydrology, Meteorology

ANR Agriculture and Natural Resources

ANRWG ANR Working Group

ARC Africa Risk Capacity Agency

ASIS Agriculture Stress Index System

CCADRM Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management

CED Climate and Environment Division of FAO

CEDAW United Nations Convention on the Elimination of all forms of

Discrimination against Women

CILSS the Inter-state Committee to fight against drought in the Sahel

CND Convention on Biological Diversity

CRR Central River Region

DANIDA Danish International Development Agency

DFID UK Department for International Development

DOA Department of Agriculture

DPWM Department of Parks and Wildlife Management

DRR Disaster Risk Reduction

DWR Department of Water Resources

ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

GBA Greater Banjul Area

GCF Green Climate Fund

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GEAP Gambia Environmental Action Plan

GIEWS Global Information and Early Warning System

GM Global Mechanism under the UNCCD

GTB Gambia Tourism Board

GWP Global Water Partnership

IDB Islamic Development Bank

IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development

ISDR International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

JAS July, August and September

KMC Kanifing Municipal Council

LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund

M&E Monitoring and Evaluation

MOA Ministry of Agriculture (MoA)

MECCNAR Ministry of Environment Climate Change and Natural Resources

MoFWRNAM Ministry of Fisheries and Water Resources and National Assembly

vii

Matters

MoH&SW Ministry of Health and Social Welfare

MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification

NaNA National Nutrition Agency

NAP National Action Programme to combat desertification, land degradation &

drought in The Gambia

NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action on Climate Change

NARI National Agricultural Research Institute

NAWEC National Water and Electricity Corporation

NBR North Bank Region

NBSAP National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan

NCCP National Climate Change Policy

NDMA National Disaster Management Agency

NDP National Development Plan (2018 – 2021)

NEA National Environment Agency

NEMA National Agricultural Land and Water Management Development Project

NEMA National Environmental Management Act

NEMC National Environmental Management Council

NFAP National Forestry Action Plan and Strategy

NFF National Forest Fund

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

OMVG a French acronym for River Gambia Development Authority

PA Protected Area

PAGE Programme for Accelerated Growth and Employment (2012-2015)

PRSP/SPA Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper/Strategy for Poverty Alleviation

PSU Planning Services Unit of the Department of Agriculture

PURA Public Utilities and Regulatory Authority

SCF Special Climate Funjd

TAG Technical Advisory Group

TDA Tourism Development Area

TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training

UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

WB World Bank Group

WCR West Coast Region

WFP World Food Programme

WSI Water Supply Index

viii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Drought is a slow onset disaster that tightens its grip over time. In most cases drought is a lack of rainfall leading to

inadequate water supply for plants, animals and human beings, can inflict devastating effects on life and livelihoods

and may result in food insecurity, famine, malnutrition, epidemics and displacement of populations. It also

significantly impacts sectors such as agriculture, livestock and water resources with serious ramification to socio-

economic and livelihood activities. The IPCC reports that climate change is projected to increase the frequency,

intensity, and duration of droughts, with impacts on many sectors, in particularly food, water and energy.

The Gambia experienced the drought of the 1970s and the subsequent droughts and low rainfalls/variable seasons

that followed to up recent years. The impacts experienced differ from year to year and also across the country.

These impacts ranged from loss of crops, hunger, malnutrition, increased poverty, loss of animals, reduced surface

water availability (lakes, ponds), increased urban migration and reduced national economic performance.

At UNCCD COP-13, the UNCCD institutions and bodies were requested to implement a drought initiative in the

biennium 2018-2019 at national level. A key element of the initiative is to support countries build drought resilience

by implementing concrete actions for drought preparedness. The intent is to boost the resilience of people,

communities and ecosystems against drought by being prepared and acting early. The preparation of this document

is funded by the UNCCD to meet request of the above, with the main objective of responding to international

initiatives and having in the Gambia a national drought plan which can respond at any time in the event of drought

or extremely low rainfalls.

National and sectoral policies and regulations related to the drought initiative in The Gambia include the ‘The

Gambia Incorporated Vision 2020)’ to which all the legislation, policies and strategies in place in The Gambia that

are aligned. The national and sectoral medium term strategies are developed with the objectives of implementing the

VISION 2020.

The National Climate Change Policy sets out comprehensive and crosscutting policy directions to implement

national development strategies in a climate-resilient manner, drawing on all sectors of the population in a spirit of

partnership and collaboration. The Forestry Policy and Regulations have the principal objective of checking land

degradation, in order to restore the natural balance and sustain the production and use of forest resources. The

Climate Change and Forest policies recognize government’s strategic shift towards poverty reduction and economic

growth, which underpins vision 2020, the Gambia Environment Action Plan, Local Government Reforms and

Decentralization, Strategy for Poverty Alleviation II (Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper), National Action on

Desertification, etc. The provisions will accommodate government’s decentralization process; and demand driven

“bottom-up approach” strategy of the Local Government Act, 2002. This Act places management responsibilities on

the Local Government Area Councils for a range of natural resources under their jurisdiction. The Water resources

policies and regulations make provisions to promote the (a) centralized inventory and management of all water

resources in the country; (b) most rational use of the available water resources, including the abatement of its

harmful effects such as flooding, soil erosion, siltation and salinisation; and (c) preparation of sectoral water plans,

sub-basin plans, basin and master water plans to serve as terms of reference for allocating sectoral uses of water.

The Health Sector Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan Related to All Hazards (2017 - 2019) addresses a

number of climate related hazards as well as underlining the cross-sectoral cooperation in addressing health sector

hazards (drought, floods, bush fires, windstorms, locust invasions, environmental degradation and epidemics), many

of which could be construed as being climate-change related. The Women’s Act enshrines the right of every woman

to live in a healthy and sustainable environment and that The Government shall take appropriate measures to

mensure greater participation of women in the planning, management and preservation of the environment and the

sustainable use of natural resources at all levels. The Strategic Action Plan for the Disaster Management

Programme (2008-2011) has an overall vision: Assurance of safer and resilient communities in which the impact of

ix

hazards would not hamper development and the ecosystem and provision for a better quality of life will be achieved

through effective emergency and disaster services; with, as policy goal: to ensure a proper and effective mechanism

for disaster mitigation and preparedness that will save lives and livelihoods in the country. The parks and wildlife

sub-sector policy will be addressing the underlying causes of biodiversity loss through greater and systematic

involvement of the population, in particular satellite local communities, in their effective management and the

specific parks and wildlife policy goal will continue to be the expansion of protected areas coverage of 10% of total

surface area.

In this Drought Plan, management is centered around (a) risk identification based on baseline knowledge on

hazards, vulnerabilities and priorities at any given level; (b) monitoring on how those risks and vulnerabilities

change through time; (c) response capability of potentially affected communities that enables them to reduce risk

once trends are spotted and announced through, for example, pre-season mitigation activities, evacuation or duck-

and-cover reflexes; and (d) warning communication, whereby the monitoring information is packaged into

actionable messages understood by those that need, and are prepared, to hear them. In The Gambia there is the

Multidisciplinary Working Group (MWG) that technically monitors and reports on the weather and climate of the

season. The National Meteorological Agency provides valuable information on climate science in the country, other

sectors, such as Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fisheries and Health also provide valuable monitoring and

warning data and information which is packages and used to develop the 10-day National Agro-meteorological

Bulletin. The National Disaster Management Agency unpacks the Bulletin and develops the relevant warming

communication and provides the same to the National Disaster Management Forum which is the policy body

responsible for the declaration and dissemination of disaster communication including drought incidence,

continuation and termination.

The Republic of The Gambia is ill prepared for droughts and other disasters, especially under a warming climate.

Some of the issues on the current status of the country on drought preparedness include (a) low institution

capacities and resources of the existing Government bodies to deal with drought issues; (b) often drought/crop

failures responses are coordinated through several Agencies, both Governmental and Non-Governmental with little

central coordination; (c) inventions in terms of reliefs/aids are directed toward human relief and recovery with little

or no post-drought/crop failures evaluation of responses undertaken; (d) None existence of a formal drought/crop

failure contingency plan; (e) the current early warnings can serve drought and famine but need to be instituted in a

national drought policy (which does not exist) and a drought plan; and (f) drought/crop failure mitigation actions

mainly focus on economic and crop diversification and poverty reduction measures, increasingly viewed as part of

the development process with drought policy lacking.

The current water sources of the country are three; atmospheric rain water, surface river water and groundwater.

These sources rely very much on the weather and climate parameters, particularly, rainfall. The availability of

freshwater in the river is influenced by movement of salt water from the ocean into the estuary of the river which is

dependent on the amount rain available during the rainy season. Rainfall is the only means of recharge of surface

and groundwater sources. Hence, any prolonged drought or deficient rainfall has the potential to affect these two

water sources with serious consequences that can lead to water scarcity and the resulting hardship with probable

conflicts.

Because all droughts arise from inadequate or lack of water, effective assessment and monitoring of the national

water resources will be essential. Assessment and monitoring programs should be developed according to different

risk scenarios for each locality; however, some actions must be guaranteed during drought situations. Emergency

situations such as droughts lead to discussions about universal access to safe water and sanitation, the use of new

technologies to minimize waste, water treatment in emergencies, and water saving measures. Wells (some

traditional, some modern concrete line wells) and boreholes (shallow and deep) are the main means of abstracting

ground water for public and private uses.

x

Hence the need to develop new and alternative water sources is essential as a way of mitigating drought and

deficient rainfall in the country through rain water harvesting from roof tops in residential areas; rain water

harvesting from surface run-off through creation of reservoirs in low-land areas in the country; and improvement of

potable water supply infrastructures in both urban and rural settlements.

This National Drought Plan thus contains a Drought Action Plan with priority implementation actions. A variety of

strategies and actions contained therein will pursue and improve the resilience of the country’s economy especially

the sectors (agriculture, water resources, fisheries, forestry, parks and wildlife, etc) that are climate and rainfall

dependent. These investments must be made as part of a comprehensive plan that includes, for the water resources

sector, expanded water conservation, water recycling, storm water capture and reuse, local and regional water

storage, groundwater management and other strategies to ensure water supply reliability and ecosystem health in

The Gambia. For the forestry and parks systems, tree growing using indigenous trees which are climate and climate

change resilient would work under harsh conditions including droughts.

The following key actions are relevant to the development and implementation of the Gambia National Drought

Plan.

1. Establish a Technical Drought Action Group to share information and develop recommendations to address the

current and prepare for future drought conditions under projected climate change;

2. Compile and publish historical and current statistical information on drought impacts around the country as a

snapshot in time;

3. Under scenarios of continuing and future (e.g. 10, 15 or 20 years) drought conditions, identify future

vulnerabilities and impacts across sub-national and national jurisdiction and also across relevant sectors of the

economy (water, agriculture, forests, wildlife protection, ecosystems, commercial industries, trade, etc.)

4. Design and operationalize an Environment and Climate Change Data Base at the National Meteorological

Agency of The Gambia with Nodes at relevant departments that include National Environment Agency,

National Disaster Management Agency, Department of Agriculture, Department of Forestry, Department of

Parks and Wildlife Management, Department of Water Resources, Department of Livestock Services,

Department of Fisheries and Department of Health Services.

5. Design and implement a Comprehensive Water Resources Management Programme for The Gambia that will

respond to current climate and climate change related drought conditions at the sectoral, sub-national and

national levels.

5.1. Conduct a comprehensive study with results to inform the process of updating all natural resources and

other relevant policies and regulations and facilitate long-term solutions for sustainability in the applicable

natural resources, particularly, water management plans;

5.2. Update the National Water Resources Master Plan including the design, promotion, facilitation and

encouragement of innovative water supply technologies such as irrigation that may be needed under a

water-stressed economy due to projected climate change.

5.3. Policy and institutional reforms in the water resources sector (e.g., relocation of abstraction points,

changes in pumping policies of deep wells and boreholes, flow regulation, licensing and permits for

withdrawal of river water for irrigation and increase water column in wells)

5.4. Creation of new surface and groundwater storage and improved distribution systems at the Municipal and

Regional Administrative levels to help address the nation’s projected stresses in the surface and

groundwater resources under changing climate related drought conditions.

5.5. Development and implementation of medium and long-term water infrastructure and technology plans and

strategies to ensure reliable and sustainable water supplies for both the economy and the environment; and

improvement of distribution at the Municipal and Regional Administrative levels.

1. BACKGROUND The Gambia is part of the Sahelian Region of West Africa and shared the same climate pattern of

the sub-region which differs from south to north. The Gambia as part of the Sahel region has

experienced three types of rainfall periods from 1950s to recent years. These periods are 1950s to

1968/69, 1970 to 1993 and from 1994 to recent years; the second period from 1970 – 1993, was

when most severe droughts were experienced in the sub-region. For simple understanding,

drought is generally defined as an extended period (a season, a year, or several years) of deficient

precipitation compared to the statistical multi-year average for a region that results in water

shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. Drought affects all parts of our

society, from food production to public health, and there is a growing need to help countries,

communities, agriculture, businesses, and individuals threatened by drought to plan accordingly.

Drought gives rise to series of environmental, ecological, social and economical impacts. It also

significantly impacts sectors such as agriculture, livestock and water resources with serious

ramification to socio-economic and livelihood activities.

The Gambia experienced the drought of the 1970s and the subsequent droughts and low

rainfalls/variable seasons that followed to up recent years. The impacts experienced differ from

year to year and also across the country. These impacts ranged from loss of crops, hunger,

malnutrition, increased poverty, loss of animals, reduced surface water availability (lakes,

ponds), increased urban migration and reduced national economic performance.

Nationally, to minimize or mitigate the impact of drought in the country, several initiatives were

taken at national level. New crop varieties were introduced both on cereals (millet, sorghum,

sesame) and groundnuts (cash crop) which are of short cycle and more drought-tolerant. The

cultivation of water melon and agroforestry was introduced and encouraged across the country.

At institutional level, the National Agricultural Research Institute (NARI) and National Disaster

Management Agency (NDMA) were established. The first was spearhead agricultural research

into new crop varieties and farming practices in the face droughts and low rainfalls, the latter is

tasked to manage natural disaster response measures and interventions.

Regionally, the Inter-state Committee to fight against drought in the Sahel (CILSS) and its

training Centre; AGRHYMET (Agriculture, Hydrology, Meteorology) were established with

headquarters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso and Niamey , Niger respectively. The first was to

coordinate at political level interventions on combating the impacts of droughts in the sub-region

and second is to conduct trainings for citizens of CILSS in the fields of Agrometeorology,

Hydrology, Crop Protection and instruments and computer with aim of building national

capacities in responding to the impacts of drought at national level.

Internationally, at the Conference of the Parties by its decision 29/COP.13), the UNCCD

institutions and bodies are requested to implement a drought initiative in the biennium 2018-

1

2

2019 at national level. A key element of the initiative will be to help countries build drought

resilience by implementing concrete actions for drought preparedness. The intent is to boost the

resilience of people, communities and ecosystems against drought by being prepared and acting

early.

The preparation of this document is funded by the UNCCD to meet request of the above, with

the main objective of responding to international initiatives and having in the Gambia a national

drought plan which can respond at any time in the event of drought or extremely low rainfalls.

1.1 Purpose, Scope, Goals and Objectives

1.1.1 Purpose The purpose of this plan is to provide a national mechanism whereby, Government and

stakeholders, both national and international can effectively and systematically assess drought

conditions, develop mitigation actions and programs to reduce risk in advance of drought, and

develop response options/actions that minimize economic losses/stresses, environmental losses

and social hardships during drought.

1.1.2 Scope The scope of the plan is national, covering the whole country and all sectors. It will have an

implementation institutional arrangement from high level in Government (Office of the

President/Vice President) to technical level (technical institutions) with an institutional focal

point.

1.1.3 Goals The overall goal is to enable the country to prepare itself in responding to disasters, particularly

droughts with regards to assessing, risk based national drought management policies and

interventions. The specific goals are:

i. Setting a functioning National Drought Taskforce responsible the implementation of the

National Drought Plan;

ii. Identifying and setting National Office with authority to declare drought and authorizing

resources mobilization and intervention actions;

iii. Formulate/strengthen national policies on natural disasters, particularly droughts with

good management strategies;

iv. Strengthen key institutions on capacity needs (human, material) from national to local

levels in implementing the drought plan implementing risk based management;

v. Establishing a national Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems

vi. Setting an Emergency Relief and Response mechanism

3

1.1.4 Objectives Generally, the objective of this plan, is to provide Government in collaboration with national and

international partners with an effective and systematic means of assessing drought conditions,

developing mitigation actions and programs to reduce risk in advance of drought, and developing

response options/actions that minimize economic losses/stresses, environmental losses and social

hardships during drought. Specifically, the objectives of the plan will be following:

i. Collect, analyze and disseminate drought-related information in a timely and

systematic manner.

ii. Establish criteria for declaring drought and triggering various mitigation and response

activities.

iii. Provide an organizational structure that assures information flows between and within

levels of government, as well as with Non Governmental organizations, and define

the duties and responsibilities of all agencies with respect to drought.

iv. Maintain a current inventory of drought assistance programs used in assessing and

responding to drought emergencies, and provide a set of appropriate action

recommendations.

v. Identify drought prone areas and vulnerable sectors, population groups, and

environments.

vi. Identify mitigation actions that can be taken to address vulnerabilities and reduce

drought impacts.

vii. Provide a mechanism to ensure timely and accurate assessments of drought’s impacts

on key sectors and other areas, as well as specific population groups.

viii. Keep the public informed of current conditions and response actions by providing

accurate, timely information to media in print and electronic form.

ix. Establish and pursue a strategy to remove obstacles to the equitable allocation of

water during shortages and provide incentives to encourage water conservation.

x. Establish a set of procedures to continually evaluate and periodically revise the plan

so it will stay responsive to the needs of the people and government ministries.

1.2 Plan Development Process The steps in the drought policy and preparedness process are:

Step 1: Appoint a National Drought Plan Task Force

Step 2: Define the Goals/Objectives of the Drought Plan

Step 3: Seek Stakeholder Participation

Step 4: Inventory/Situational Analysis

Step 5: Prepare/write the National drought Plan

Step 6: Identify unmet needs and fill institutional gap

Step 7: Communicate /Educate

Step 8: Evaluate the plan

4

2. RELATIONASHIP TO OTHER PLANS AND POLICIES

2.1 Related National and Sectoral Policies and Regulations

In 1996, the Government adopted a long-term strategy for accelerated and sustainable

development, ‘The Gambia Incorporated Vision 2020 (see BOX below)’in order to transform

The Gambia into a middle-income nation. The Gambia’s medium-term strategies (PRSP/SPA,

PAGE and NDP) have been developed with implementation modalities for Vision 2020. Under

this section, the legislation, policies and strategies in place in The Gambia that are aligned to the

VISON 2020 and the medium strategies and that are directly or indirectly related to addressing

climate change and drought management are discussed. Much of the legislation in The Gambia

pre-dates climate change awareness. The sectoral silos have hampered mainstreaming climate

change, with the tendency to leave everything to do with environment and climate change to the

MoECCNAR, without necessarily seeing these challenges as being cross-sectoral. While climate

change is now being addressed in new draft legislation (e.g. water resources) and in strategies

(e.g. agriculture and natural resources; forestry), existing legislation – where it addresses the

topic at all –is mostly restricted to environmental impact assessments of a very limited nature.

Changes in this would require changes in the National Environment Management Act and its

associated regulations to move from a requirement that an environmental impact assessment

determines whether a project will have “any adverse impact on the environment” to a

requirement to specifically address climate change as part of the long-term, multi-sectoral

impacts of an intervention, and to include provisions for enforcement. For example, there are

presently numerous user conflicts between different stakeholders with respect to the management

of coastal resources such as fisheries, mining of minerals (sand, ilmenite), agriculture and

forestry.

2.1.1 The National Climate Change Policy:

The National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) represents a significant step forward, with many

progressive and necessary provisions designed to ensure a coherent and effective approach to

reducing vulnerability to climate change and building adaptive capacity and resilience. There is

inadequate consideration of climate change in sector policies, while skills and capacity levels to

Vision 2020: The long term objectives of Vision 2020 are to address poor savings through improvements in

output from the real sectors and enhancing financial intermediation. A liberal market economy with undue

administrative interference shall improve the overall efficiency and competitiveness of the Gambian economy.

The role of Government shall be limited strictly to the production of public goods which cannot be produced by

the private sector while conducting a vigorous decentralization drive to ensure a more democratic process in the

allocation, management and control of resources.

5

mainstream and decentralize the climate change response are insufficient. It is therefore clear

that an overarching policy framework is needed to steer the transition to a climate-resilient

society, within a thriving low-emissions economy. This NCCP has the intention to provide the

framework for managing climate risks, building institutions and capacities, and identifying new

opportunities for climate-resilient sustainable development in The Gambia. It sets out

comprehensive and crosscutting policy directions to implement national development strategies

in a climate-resilient manner, drawing on all sectors of the population in a spirit of partnership

and collaboration. This National Drought Plan is thus aligned to and will support the

implementation of the NCCP, both geared towards climate resilience and transitioning The

Gambia from current brown to green economy.

2.1.2 The Forestry Policy (2010-2019) and the Forest Regulations:

The Government recognized the prospects of a balanced ecosystem in advancing the

socioeconomic development of the country. The policy framework for sustainable natural

resource management put an adequate forest cover at the centre front. The preceding Forest

Policy (1995 – 2005), proclaims that, a forest cover of 30% and placing 75% of the forest cover

under local community and private sector management is sufficient for maintaining an ecological

balance necessary for sustainable economic growth. However, the implementation of the 1995-

2005 forest policy faced the following critical constraints: (a) increasing population pressure on

land resources, and the inability of the natural resource sector to meet the increasing resource

demand; (b) the inability of various users to take full responsibility of balancing supply and

demand for forest resources; (c) inaccessibility to land and difficulties in securing extended

tenure (to match the long-term benefits of investment in forest resource development) for private

foresters; (d) poor marketing system for forest products; (e) inability to stimulate adequate

private sector response to investment possibilities in forestry; (f) inadequate capacity of the

institutional framework to sufficiently advance the sector; and (g) inadequate consideration of

climate issues in the policy design. This National Drought Plan is designed to apply adequate

remedial and protective measures in a systematic manner to sustain a sound forest resource base

for meeting the specific needs of the local population and to highlight the impacts of ongoing

climate change on forests, and the critical need to reduce deforestation and enhance ecosystem

resilience, in the face of climate change.

2.1.3 The Environment Policy and Regulations

Environmental Acts, such as the National Environmental Management Act of 1994 focus on

conservation, pollution control, and environmental impact studies, rather than incorporating any

aspect related to climate change. In this regard, environmental management policy is based on

sound partnership among the farming community, the private and public sectors in the effective

implementation of the Gambia Environmental Action Plan (GEAP).

6

2.1.4 The Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy (2009-2015)

The Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy (2009-2015), which was revised in 2013 to

integrate climate change issues systematically, including the highlighting risks to food and cash

crops, as well as livestock, from future climate change effects, as well as negative impacts to

natural (terrestrial and aquatic) ecosystems, with mangroves and grasslands being negatively

affected. The National Drought Plan is aligned to this policy and is expected support the

sustainable management of water system for effective response to climate and climate change.

2.1.5 The Fisheries Policy and Strategic Plan (2012 – 2015):

The Climate Change-Integrated Fisheries Strategic Action Plan (2012-2015) was reviewed in

2013 to place more emphasis on anticipated climatic impacts on fisheries and other aquatic

systems, and to propose a number of adaptation response measures. Significantly, although

women and female-headed households are the main work-force in agriculture and should be a

key focus of “rural resilience” efforts, gender is not significantly mainstreamed into the existing

ANR policy’s sub-sector policies and strategies, even though in its discussion on cross-cutting

issues the Policy does recognize a number of key constraints facing women: access to land and

land rights; lack of collateral to access credit, limited access to formal markets, lack of market

information and access to inputs, etc.

2.1.6 Water resources policies and regulations

Three new Draft Water Bills awaiting formal approval and enactment have been prepared which

address The Gambia’s water resources within the context of climate change. The Water Act will

ensure protection and management of the nation’s water resources, look to the needs of future

generations and promote the efficient and sustainable use of the resource for the future, and

enshrine the equal treatment of women, and public participation in decision-making. The OMVG

Convention does not seem to apply to groundwater connected to the basin’s surface waters and

fails to incorporate substantive obligations related to harm prevention and equitable use. These

issues will be discussed and remedied in the proposed National Drought Plan.

2.1.7 Tourism policy and regulations

The Gambia Tourism Board Act of makes no mention of any environmental responsibilities

and is completely silent on climate change. Therefore, changes in Physical Planning regulations

and NAWEC regulations would also apply to future building and construction works. The

regulations do specify requirements pertaining to erosion control and drainage (Section 13) but

only to “stabilize ground surfaces at the risk of wind, runoff or wave erosion”, and to maintain

major drainage channels “in conformity with public health regulations”. No mention is made of

climate proofing (whether related to sea-level rise, extreme weather events, flooding, etc.) and

thus this proposed National Drought Plan includes issues related to climate change extreme

events.

7

2.1.8 Health policy and regulations

The National Health Policy (2012-2020) had been reviewed to incorporate climate change

issues. The potential health impacts of climate change such as vector-borne and zoonotic

diseases (malaria, yellow fever, dengue, etc.), water-borne diseases (cholera, schistosomiasis,

etc.) and weather-related morbidity and mortality (as a result of extreme weather events) are now

integrated into policy. The updated Health Sector Emergency Preparedness and Response

Plan Related to All Hazards (2017 - 2019) was reviewed in 2018 to address a number of

climate related hazards as well as underlining the cross-sectoral cooperation in addressing health

sector hazards (drought, floods, bush fires, windstorms, locust invasions, environmental

degradation and epidemics) Many of these issues will be taken care of in the proposed National

Drought Plan.

2.1.9 Education Policy and regulations

Education, at Basic, Secondary and Tertiary level falls under the Ministry of Basic and

Secondary Education, and the Ministry of Higher Education, Research and Technology. The

Education Policy (2016-2030) notes that (a) there is urgent need for young people to be

equipped with the necessary knowledge, skills and attitudes to be able to address the challenges

triggered by climate change resulting to global warming and sea level rise; coastal and marine

degradation, loss of biodiversity, and issues of waste and waste management; and (b) considering

the need to prepare the youth for adaptation to the effects of climate change, and to engage them

with a view to a proactive, conscious and relevant response to the profound changes taking place

on the West African coastline, the education sector will partner with the relevant stakeholders to

push forward environmental education, including its integration in school curricula. This

National Drought Plan prioritizes and supports some of these issues.

2.1.10 Disaster Management Policy and Regulations

The Strategic National Action Plan (2014-2017) – Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction and

Management in The Gambia specifically recognized the need to integrate climate change

adaptation with disaster risk management, and is committed to develop risk assessment and risk

modeling tools, including drawing on technical assistance from international partners (World

Bank, ECOWAS, ISDR and the Africa Risk Capacity Agency and in close collaboration with the

private sector and insurance industry) to develop innovative and sustainable strategies of disaster

risk financing. Key areas for intervention in order to promote resilient development include the

enforcement of DRR measures in land-use planning and building regulations and standards. This

National Drought Plan will align to and support inclusive disaster management activities related

to hydrological events, especially drought incidence and management.

2.1.11 Local government, land and physical planning policies and regulations

Building codes and regulations fall under the Ministry of Local Government and its Physical

Planning Department, and are part of a series of measures requiring urgent action to underpin

8

climate resilience. Action to update and climate proof building standards, energy codes, etc., is

being undertaken jointly between the Ministry of Local Government and The Gambia’s

Standards Bureau. However, work has only recently started on this and the process is still in its

early stages. The process will need validation as well as integration into legal frameworks such

as the Local Government Act and the Physical Planning and Control Act.

2.2 Existing Programmes Addressing Issues of Drought

2.2.1 National Action Plan to Combat Desertification, Land Degradation

& Drought (NAP) The National Action Programme (NAP) to combat desertification, land degradation & drought in

The Gambia developed by the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Natural Resources

(MECCNAR) in 2015 underscored the importance of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) and

land degradation. It is perceived that the degradation of the land-based resources in The Gambia

is a compounded economic, environmental, ecological and cultural problem that requires

collective actions. In that context, and in an even broader sense, the process must be understood

as a social problem in which land degradation and desertification are at the center of a triangular

relationship between people, poverty and food security.

2.2.2 National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) The development of the National Adaptation Programme of Action on Climate Change (NAPA)

the Gambia was developed in 2007 emphasizing the importance the state attaches to the threat

from climate variability and climate change. The First National Communication of The Gambia

to UNFCCC 2003, captured the potential impacts of climate change on the socio-economic

sectors of the country are mostly negative and therefore the populations are vulnerable. The

Government of The Gambia has recognized the need for action in containing the threat and has

taken bold steps to this effect.

2.2.3 National Biodiversity Strategy Action Plan (NBSAP) The Gambia has prepared this National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (GBSAP) in 1998

to fulfill one of the key obligations under Article 6 of the Convention on Biological Diversity

(CBD). The GBSAP sets out a strategy for action under the following main headings; forestry

and forest biodiversity, fisheries and aquatic ecosystems; wildlife, wetlands, agricultural

biodiversity, livestock, geology and water resources, policies and legislation, international

agreements and social and cultural aspects of biodiversity. The Action Plan recognizes that much

of biodiversity loss in The Gambia, as elsewhere, is due to economic policy distortions and the

resultant poverty that encourage rapid over exploitation of biological resources rather than

sustainable use. It also recognizes that slowing down the rate of biodiversity loss will require

9

policy and institutional reform as well as institutional strengthening for effective action in all the

areas.

2.2.4 National Forestry Action Plan and Strategy (NFAP) The new National Forestry Action Plan and Strategy (NFAP) developed in 2018 came into being

after the 2001-2010 plan was reviewed and validated in 2018. The primary purpose of the plan is

to provide practical guidance on the implementation of programmes of sustainable dry land

forest management and rehabilitation. It provides a programme direction in sustainable dry land

forest management to make the forest sector more biodiversity-friendly, and socially beneficial.

It addresses the linkages between forestry, biodiversity, and poverty reduction, showing their

complementarities in sustainable economic development.

2.3 Importance of National Drought Plan The NDP is a measure to reduce the risk and effects of drought in the Gambia.

Learned about causes and pattern of drought in the Sahel region.

To know drought nature and impacts

Help protect livestock and environmental drought related disasters

Help coordinate all activities towards drought mitigation

10

3. OVERVIEW OF DROUGHT IN THE COUNTRY

3.1 Historical Occurrences The Gambia is part of the Sahelian Region of West Africa and shared the same climate pattern of

the sub-region which differs from south to north. The Sahel has experienced three types of

rainfall periods from 1950s to recent years. These periods are 1950s to 1968/69, 1970 to 1993

and from 1994 to recent years. The first period consist of persistent humid years (Figure 1

below) with positive rainfall (anomaly) indices with abundant precipitations throughout the

period. The second period from 1970 to 1993 persistently consists of dry years (negative

anomaly), which resulted in the droughts years of 1970s to 1993 in Sahel, the severity of which

differs from year to year affecting people and livestock. The Gambia was not spared in the these

droughts and low/erratic rainfalls, which has dropped the productivity of certain crops and led to

changes in the cropping pattern and the introduction of new short cycle crop varieties in the in

the late 1970s to early 1980s. The third period from 1994 to recent years is a period that neither

continuous humid or dry years, but an alternation between the two. However, this alternation is

largely attributed to the effects of climate change on the climate systems of the sub-region.

Figure 1: Evolution of rainfall (anomaly) indices in the Sahelian countries from 1950 to 2005

Source: AGRHYMET Regional Centres, Niamey, Niger.

Across these three periods the country has witnessed a gradual decline in annual rainfall

averages (Figure 2a below) of 5.75mm of rainfall per year, amounting to a decline of about

368.0mm in 64 years as the influence of climate change gradually sets in with all its adverse

impacts on the environment and its socio-economic activities. The decline with exceptional

years of drought is markedly visible from the graph, from a maximum annual average of

1484.7mm to a low of 513.1mm in 2003 and further a bit above this value in 2002, with a repeat

of the scenario in the 2011 Figure 2b below). Other droughts years were earlier in 1972, 1983-

1985, 1990-1993, 1996-1998 and 2002. These years recorded average annual rainfall values of

less that 600mm and were designated droughts years with severe impacts on the agricultural

11

production, livelihoods and overall economic performance of the country. The 1982 rainy season

remains the worst drought year since the start of records in The Gambia.

Figure 2a: Country average rainfall trend from 1943 to 2008

(Source: DWR 2016 (community Sensitization on CC)

Figure 2b: Country average rainfall trend from 1981 to 2010

(Source: DWR 2016 (community Sensitization on CC)

Within the period of 1994 to date, The Gambia has experienced a number of alternation between

humid years (above normal rainfall) adequate rains (normal rainfall) and low rainfall (below

normal rainfall). During the low rainfall period the pattern became unpredictable and unreliable

combined with early/late unset of rains, inadequate distribution of rains sometimes erratic in

nature. The 2011 season was a near drought year due to its inadequacy and uneven distribution

of rains affecting agricultural production leading to the Government declaring the year a crop

failure year impacting seriously on the GDP growth and economic performance. Predicted long-

term trends in drought and rainfall variability are reported for The Gambia, which suggests that

The Gambia is highly vulnerable to loss and damage from climate change, particularly from

climate extreme events such as droughts.

3.2 Understanding drought: Meteorological, Agricultural, Hydrological

and Socioeconomic Drought For simple understanding, drought is generally defined as an extended period; a season, a year,

or several years of deficient precipitation compared to the statistical multi-year average for a

region that results in water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector.

Meanwhile, dozens of more specific drought definitions are used around the world according to

the lack of rain over various time periods, or measured impacts such as reservoir levels or crop

losses. Drought can be defined according to meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and

socio-economic criteria1. Usually drought indices are commonly used as proxies for monitoring

water availability in an area. The indices which are used to define departures from normal

conditions include (1) meteorological drought indices that identify periods with below-normal

1http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/aq191e/aq191e.pdf

513.1

1,484.7

20

220

420

620

820

1020

1220

1420

1620

19

43

19

46

19

49

19

52

19

55

19

58

19

61

19

64

19

67

19

70

19

73

19

76

19

79

19

82

19

85

19

88

19

91

19

94

19

97

20

00

20

03

20

06

Ra

infa

ll (

millim

ete

rs)

537531

348

459

576543519

597596 575632648

486

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

An

nu

al m

ean

rai

nfa

ll (

mm

)Year

12

precipitation and above-normal precipitation; (2) agricultural drought indices that define periods

with dry soils resulting from below-average precipitation, intense but less frequent rain events, or

above-normal evaporation, all of which lead to reduced crop production and plant growth; and

(3) hydrological drought indices that define periods when river stream flow and water storage in

aquifers, lakes, or reservoirs fall below long-term mean levels. In quantifying meteorological

drought indices, precipitation is the primary variable and surface air temperature is the secondary

factor; soil moisture content and stream flow data are the primary variables used in estimating

the agricultural and hydrological drought indices, respectively (Mannocchi, F & Francesca,

Todisco &Vergni, Lorenzo, 2004).

3.2.1 Meteorological drought Meteorological drought is known when precipitation is compared to a long-term normal in terms

of departures from the normal. In essence, Meteorological drought is defined usually comparing

the precipitation of a precise place and moment to the average of precipitation of that place for a

long period (normal). This is why the definition is specific to each region. Meteorological

drought results in depletion of soil moisture that almost always has an impact on crop

production. In consideration here, is only the objective factor of reduction of precipitation, not

taking into account the effects of that reduction on water reservoirs, human needs or agriculture2.

3.2.2 Agricultural Drought Agricultural drought in short, when there is insufficient soil moisture to meet the needs of a

particular crop at a particular time. Agricultural drought is typically evident after meteorological

drought but before a hydrological drought. It occurs when there is not enough water available

for a particular crop or crops to grow during a particular time within a region or country.

An agricultural drought is considered to have set in when the soil moisture availability to plants

has dropped to such a level that it adversely affects the crop yield and hence agricultural

profitability. In brief, the definition of agricultural drought is concerned with the soil moisture

deficiency in relation to meteorological droughts and climatic factors and their impacts on

agricultural production and economic profitability3. Agricultural drought is typically evident

after meteorological drought (when rainfall decreases) but before a hydrological drought (when

the level of rivers, lakes and reservoirs decreases)4.

Furthermore, it is important to note that the effects of droughts are different in irrigated and non-

irrigated agriculture. In the first one the impacts are usually lower as it depends on stocks of

water (reservoirs), so in case of not having precipitations, these crops still get the water they

need, in the second case, crops depend directly on water falling as precipitations, if these are

2http://klimat.czn.uj.edu.pl/enid/3__Drought_in_the_Mediterranean/-_causes___types_of_drought_184.html 3https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289389232_Agricultural_drought_Indices_definition_and_analysis 4http://klimat.czn.uj.edu.pl/enid/3__Drought_in_the_Mediterranean/_causes___types_of_drought_184.html

13

reduced, they don’t get the water they need to survive5. This drought may not depend only in the

amount of rainfall, but also on the correct use of that water. Imagine there is a period of low

rainfall and also water is not used in the correct way for irrigation and other uses, then the

problem becomes even bigger than it was before.

3.2.3 Hydrological Drought Hydrological drought refers to when shortages/deficiencies of water resources: surface and

subsurface water supplies occur, when for example; groundwater, reservoir, or stream levels are

significantly reduced. This is considered the drinking water type of drought. Conditions for

hydrologic drought are built over extended periods of time. It takes a longer time for reservoirs

or streams to become depleted, which corresponds to longer replenishing periods6.

3.2.4 Socioeconomic Drought This of type drought occurs when human activities are affected by reduced precipitation and

related water availability. This form of drought associates human activities with elements of

meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought

3.3 Drought Impacts by Sector:

3.3.1 Agriculture Drought impacts agricultural production and quality of agricultural product. The figure below

(Figure 3) shows the proportion of households reporting drought impact of 2011 the North Bank

Region of the Gambia. From the table, it is clear that most household’s crops and livestock were

severely affected by the drought pushing food prices very high in the region.

Figure 3: Proportion of households reporting different types of drought impacts

Source: The Gambia Loss and Damage questionnaire survey, July–August 2012.

5http://klimat.czn.uj.edu.pl/enid/3__Drought_in_the_Mediterranean/-_causes___types_of_drought_184.html 6https://articles.extension.org/pages/64791/what-is-hydrological-drought

14

Drought or substantial dry periods cause partial or total crop failures with repercussion on

livelihoods tranquility and sedentarily settlement threatening the overall food securing situation

of whole, community or country. Generally, an agricultural system that depends entirely on

rainfall are the most hit in the event of drought. As the drought prolonged, irrigated agriculture

also run into problem as surface and underground waters dwindles down. Drought in agriculture,

cause lost of production, soil degradation and loss of its nutrients, abandonment of agricultural

lands, migration of farmers, increased rural poverty and affects the overall national Gross

Domestic Production of the county.

3.3.2 Livestock Any drought in the Gambia can impact the Livestock sector in four areas, namely: fodder, rate of

conception and calving, water availability, milk output and live weight. Fodder is the back born

of pasture for livestock survival and development, which itself depends of rainfall in the Sahel

region including the Gambia. Therefore any substantial variation in rainfall, either in frequency

or intensity could significantly affect the availability of fodder. Hence, any fall in fodder

availability due to low rainfall is the first main effect of drought on livestock production systems,

to an extent, Low rainfall also causes a drop in the availability of drinking water, precluding the

effective grazing of certain pastures7.

Drought also impacts on animal rate of conception. For Example in a drought year, animals

suffer both a lower rate of conception, due to a tardy and incomplete return to peak bodyweight

during the rains on one hand, and higher rates of miscarriage and stillbirth in the subsequent

period of pregnancy and calving in another hand, due to the high level of stress experienced by

animals as the dry season proceeds.

Drought in one year usually lead to lower calving rates in the following year, this drop in the

number of new calves within the herd is further aggravated by high mortality rates among young

stock. Whilst, in normal years of rainfall, this trend is different usually with a highly seasonal

calving pattern leading to most conceptions taking place in the mid to late rainy season (July to

October) followed by calving in the late dry season.

Another impact of drought on livestock is milk output, which depends on fodder availability.

Milk output usually falls as female access to fodder reduced and at certain level of this

inaccessibility lactation stops completely. The fall in availability of milk does not only affects

calf's nutritional status but also the consumption and nutritional levels of the herders and their

families, who to greater extend relies on their animal milk for part of their food requirements and

income.

7http://www.fao.org/wairdocs/ILRI/x5439E/x5439e02.html

15

Generally, in normal rainfall years, humans could often in tight competition with calves for

available milk from female animals in the herd, whereas, a drought-induced milk shortage will

intensify this rivalry.

The other aspect of livestock that could be affected by drought is animal live-weight, which

could fall drastically as grazing becomes scarce, thus reducing the value of stock in the market as

meat animals. This loss of weight also reduces animal strength resulting to less ability and value

for transportation of goods and agricultural use, such as ploughing and drawing of water for

domestic and agricultural uses.

3.3.3 Water Resources Drought has serious implications for the water resources sector. Both surface and underground

water and water quality are affected in any drought period, especially a prolonged drought.

Surface water bodies include rivers and lakes/ponds which are replenish annually by annual

rainfall. In the national context, most lakes or ponds vary in size and differ in water holding

capacity. Generally, they are all temporal in nature, and hardly most last for the length (8

months) of the dry season in The Gambia. The rate of replenishment of surface water bodies is

affected if there is any drop or reduction of rainfall or a year of drought.

Runoff water the vehicle of this replenishment of water bodies, depends on the annual quantity

and frequency of rainfall, thus any drought or reduced rainfall will result to reduced or total

cessation of runoff water. This will in turn led to quick drying up of lakes/ponds reduce river

flow, with the consequence of less water for tidal irrigation in the central parts of the country

and animal drinking water country wide. The reduced stream/river flow will result to rapid

upstream movement of the saline front allowing salt intrusion into the fields adjacent to the main

river and its tributaries, some of which are agricultural fields.

Likewise, underground water resources in the country are constituted of different aquifer depths,

depending on the area of the country. Generally, aquifer recharge comes from rainfall and at

times from streams and rivers. Drought or reduced rainfall reduces aquifer re-charge rate

restricting the availability of underground water resulting to gradual fall in ground water supply.

Gradual fall due from drought or continued reduction in rainfall affect both urban and rural

domestic water supply and also irrigation in gardens as all the sources of domestic water supply

in country come from underground aquifers. Prolong reduction of rainfall could result to

underground salt intrusion, particularly areas close to the ocean as aquifer re-charge falls due to

reduction in rainfall or drought.

Water quality is also affected by drought, for instance, hydrological extreme events, such as

droughts affect the runoff generation and confluence mechanism of any basin with a potential of

changing the pollutants transformation and the dilution capacity of water bodies.

16

During dry periods as runoff when ceased completely, domestic refuses, wastes and non-point

source contaminants alike are piled up in the earth’s surface and soil. When the rain falls again

ending the dry period, these contaminants join the receiving water body along with runoffs, thus

affecting its water quality. In another, the dry–wet alternation from drought to rainfall will

promote the decomposition of the organic matters in soil and increase the load of nutrients in

water, which lead to a rapid deterioration of surface water quality in a short time.

Dust, dry wastes and leaves emanating from dry soils and it’s the surrounding environment

carried by the wind affect the water quality of surface water bodies during droughts or dry

periods,

3.3.4 Socio-economic The socio-economic impact of drought has a pretty large ramification on society. These impacts

ranged from food crises, malnutrition, famine, migration, poverty, depression and deaths. The

drought brings along crop failure which in turn causes food crisiswhich has number of social and

economic ramifications.

The malnutrition affects people’s health and wellbeing and safety besides inviting conflicts on

the use of water resources. The high dust molecules density in the atmosphere due to prolonged

drought or dry period may finally affect the people’s respiratory system and may create allergy.

The dried condition may give more space for forest fire, which threaten the people’s life living in

the forests and forest fringes. The anticipation and depression about the loss of economy due to

drought may further create conflicts and disturb the peace of mind (Saxon, 2017).

As food becomes scared migration of people sets in from village to towns and cities (rural –

urban migration) in search of livelihood, which further aggravate the problems of employment

and social fabric. Drought can also increase poverty particularly rural communities with death of

animals due to water and fodder scarcity.

17

4. DROUGHT MONITORING, FORECASTING AND IMPACT

ASSESSMENT

4.1 Drought Indices Currently there are no pre-set drought indices in the country. Meanwhile the normality of

rainfall is used as a measure to determine looming drought or low rainfall. The normality is

divided into three: Normal rainfall, Below normal rainfall and Above normal rainfall.

For this plan the following indices will be used at Regional level:

1. At the end of August if total rainfall in each region is less than 30% of the normal for

that region, a drought situation is looming;

2. At the end of August if total rainfall in each region is between 30% and 40% of the

normal for that region, a low rainfall situation is looming;

3. At the end of August if total rainfall in each region is 50% of the normal for that

region, there will be near normal rainfall;

4. At the end of August if total rainfall in each region is 60% and above of the normal

for that region, abundant rainfall is expected;

4.2 Current Monitoring, Forecasting and data collection Currently, the monitoring systems in the country are not centralized, meanwhile, individual

institutions and Agencies had their own monitoring system using different kind of data and

information to run the system. These institutions are: World Food Programme (WFP),

Department of Water Resources (DWR), Service Planning Unit (SPU) of Ministry of

Agriculture, National Nutrition Agency (NaNA), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

and Department of Agriculture (DOA).

There isn’t a known existing centralized monitoring system specifically for drought in the

country, however, there exist a working collaboration between these institutions, whereby in

the event of a looming drought/crop failure due to erratic rains, all these institutions will be

call under the coordination of the Ministry of Agriculture to provide data and information to

monitor the looming situation and advice Government appropriately. At times, WFP and the

Ministry of Agriculture in collaboration with other relevant institutions (DWR, PSU,

National Disaster Management Agency [NDMA] FAO) will organize a joint assessment of

the progress agricultural season with the objective of advising Government on the overall

situation of the season and prevailing long term and short-term food security situation.

The Agriculture Stress Index System (ASIS) developed by Global Information and Early

Warning System (GIEWS) and Climate and Environment Division (CBC) of FAO can also

be use to monitoring of drought in the country. It can detect agricultural areas with a high

likelihood of drought and support the vegetation monitoring activities of FAO-GIEWS

18

The only available forecast used in the country is the Seasonal Outlook that is produced

every year in June which covers the months of July, August and September (JAS). It is

prepared by experts from the West African region. The outlook also includes in it the on-set

and cessation of the rainy season.

4.3 Drought severity in all relevant sectors The Agriculture and Natural Resources Sectors are the relevant sectors that receive the most

severe brunt of drought of crop failure. These sectors are Agriculture, Livestock, Water

Resources, Wildlife, Forestry and Health.

The severity on some sectors is direct while it is indirect on other sector. On Agriculture,

Water Resources, Livestock and Wildlife the severity is direct as they are impacted directly

with water scarcity. About 70% of the rural population is employed in the Agriculture sector

any drought more than half of the country is affected as the overall economy performance is

affected. Health and Forestry the severity is indirect. For health is the repercussion of drought

such as malnutrition, illnesses and deaths, while for the forestry is deforestation, with failure

of crops, the forest is last resort for the rural community leading to rapid deforestation.

4.4 A Drought Impact Assessment Methodology Several methodologies do exist for drought impact assessment, in the country the following

methodologies will be used to assess drought/low rainfall:

1. The severity of the drought at National and Regional Levels;

2. The population affected (impact across gender)

3. The sector most severely affected

4. How livelihoods are affected

5. Short-term and long-term food security situation

6. The overall economic performance (GDP situation)

Multi-sectoral Team from sectors that are severely impacted by drought plus UN Agencies

will be set. The Team will use these methodologies above to assess the impact of drought in

the country and provide a report to Government for further action.

The 6 items presented in the text above will be assessed at regular intervals to determine

aggregate impacts and also use the outputs as risk ranking analysis and classification, and

monitoring tool.

19

5. DROUGHT RISK AND VULNERABILITY

5.1 The drought Risk and Vulnerability Assessment and GIS

Mapping Drought risk is a combined effect of drought hazard (likelihood) and drought consequence

(vulnerability). Drought hazard is determined by frequency, duration and severity of

droughts. Drought impact on various ecosystems and economy depends on the vulnerability

of the affected system (Global Water Partnership).

Vulnerability of any sector to drought is generally term as the degree to which that sector is

likely to experience harm due to drought stress. Example for Agriculture, when drought

occurs, vulnerability of crops depends on several parameters, the most important ones being

the ability of the certain croptypes to adapt to drought stress and the environment of its

growth (soil, climate, available soil water) (Global Water Partnership).

Considering the size of the country, the vulnerability (Table 1 below) looks at sectoral

approach and only hazards connected to rainfall are considered. However, some

administrative regions are more vulnerable than others to droughts or insufficient rains due to

ecological and socioeconomic factors as shown in the map below (Figure 4).

Table 1: Vulnerability of key sectors to drought hazards Hazard Sector Vulnerability level Remarks

Insufficient rainfall

Agriculture medium The country’s Agriculture is rainfed, hence the sector performance and productivity is highly dependent on availability of rainfall making it sensitive and vulnerable to any shortfall in rainfall

Long dry spells Medium Drought High Insufficient rainfall

Water Resources

Medium The country’s water resources include the river and its tributaries, swamps and groundwater. A permanent area of the river is salt water, the distance from the mouth vary in the season; 270 km in the dry to 50km in pick of the rainy season. Seasonal rainfall is the regulator of this saline front movement, hence any drought or prolonged insufficient rainfall will see the saline front moving further upstream affecting fresh water availability.

Long dry spells Low Drought High

Insufficient rainfall

Livestock

Medium Apart from crop agriculture, Livestock is another sector that is seriously affected by any shortfall in seasonal rainfall due to its dependent on rainfed pasture. During the 2011rainfall deficiency, not only crops were affected some herders also lost their cattle due to hunger and diseases.

Long dry spells Low Drought High

Insufficient rainfall

The Economy

Low The country’s economic performance is connected to seasonal agricultural productivity. In any season with unfavourable agricultural productivity see the GDP contracting as was the case in the 2011. Long dry spells Low

Drought High

20

Insufficient rainfall

Wildlife medium Just like the Livestock, the survival of wildlife depend on good fauna and flora, in the case of the Gambia apart from river ecosystem, the rest of fauna and flora depend on rainfall for good functioning, insufficient rainfall or drought will lead to degradation of the fauna and flora affecting ability to sustain the wildlife

Long dry spells low Drought

High

Insufficient rainfall

Health

Low Health is affected by the health repercussions of drought such as malnutrition, famine, illnesses and deaths which will put extra pressure on the national Health services, which has limited resistance to withstand such increased pressures.

Long dry spells Low Drought High

Due to geophysical conditions, climatic extremes, and high degrees of exposure and

vulnerability, The Gambia is a highly disaster-prone country. One of the major hazards affecting

the country is Drought. According to the Detailed Post Harvest Assessment in 2011, The

Gambia was affected by drought due to late, unevenly distributed and erratic rainfall during the

rainy season, with an overall deficit of 10% below normal and 37% below 2010 levels.

Particularly affected was most of the North Bank Region (Figure 4) with average rainfall being

recorded at over 76% below normal in May-June and over 35% below normal in the period of

July to October as well as Lower River Region at 82% and 41% below normal.

Figure 4: Current and Projected Rainfall of The Gambia shows decrease especially in the North Bank

(a)

(b)

5.2 Drought Risk Areas in Various Administrative areas The country is very small (11,295 square kilometers) and any drought will virtually affect the

whole country. However, the northern part of the country is having a higher risk to drought due

to its annual rainfall records which are always low compared to the southern part in low rainfall

year and the fact that most of its forest is deforested and the lands degraded. The region is in two

administrative areas, the North Bank Region and part of the Central River North. Most of the

populations are farmers who depend on rainfed agriculture for food and income.

Climate change is gradually altering average temperature, sea level, and the timing and amount

of rainfall, as well as contributing to more frequent, severe and unpredictable droughts. Projected

rainfall amounts in the Gambia by 2100 will be less than 600mm country wide (Figure 5).

Climate change acts as a magnifier of existing climate-related hazards, which for The Gambia

Drying of the North

Bank Region makes

it a Drought prone

region

Drying of the North

Bank Region makes

it a Drought prone

region

21

imply severe or more unpredictable return period of drought and aridity. Droughts are rare events

but are potentially highly destructive.

Figure 5: Climate Change impacts include less that 600mm of rainfall to be received in The Gambia by 21008

The larger overall drying trend of the last 40 years has had a profound impact on water

resources: dried up springs and streams and falling water tables, contraction of seasonally-

flooded swamps and enhanced saline intrusion. The Saline Front has been observed to move far

inland, penetrating what is conventionally known as a perennially freshwater area (Figure 6).

Under climate change, the Salt Water Front is projected to move further upstream by about 37

kilometers by 2100. Since the 1960s, large areas of freshwater swamps in Western Gambia have

been replaced by saltpans or salt-water marshes as a result of reduced fresh water inflow from

8 Courtesy of Fatou Sima, Head of the Climate Division of the Department of Water Resources

22

storm run-off, preventing rice production in North Bank Region (NBR) and Western parts of

Central River Region (CRR). Mean sea level has increased by 0.19 cm from 1901