NCEP Site Update WG-CSAB – Spring 2010

NCEP Site UpdateWG-CSAB – Spring 2010

Allan DarlingDeputy Director, NCEP Central Operations

[email protected]

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 2April 7-8, 2010

Computing Capability

IBM POWER6 P575 – per-site architecture

156 POWER6 32-way Nodes 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz 69.7 Tflops Linpack sustained 20 Terabytes total memory 330 Terabytes total disk space Single 13 PB tape archive


CCS Upgrade

IBM Power 6 (P6) system installed and accepted at backup site - December 2008

Operational model suite transition complete at backup site - June 2009

IBM P6 system installed and accepted at primary site - June 2009

Operational model suite transition complete at primary site - July 2009

Final system testing and failover testing complete - August 2009

Transition to operations August 12, 2009


Resource UtilizationPrevious production system

P5 High Water Mark

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

00:0

0:00

00:4

4:00

01:2

8:00

02:1

2:00

02:5

6:00

03:4

0:00

04:2

4:00

05:0

8:00

05:5

2:00

06:3

6:00

07:2

0:00

08:0

4:00

08:4

8:00

09:3

2:00

10:1

6:00

11:0

0:00

11:4

4:00

12:2

8:00

13:1

2:00

13:5

6:00

14:4

0:00

15:2

4:00

16:0

8:00

16:5

2:00

17:3

6:00

18:2

0:00

19:0

4:00

19:4

8:00

20:3

2:00

21:1

6:00

22:0

0:00

22:4

4:00

23:2

8:00

dev

0

ofs_atl

test

para

multi

misc

cdc

dgex

aqm

cdas

hiresw

sref

godas

cfs

mrf

firewx

merge

ruc2

hur

wave

gefs

gdas

gfs

ndas

nam


Resource UtilizationP6 system

P6 High Water Mark

0102030405060708090

100110120130140

00:0

0:00

00:4

6:00

01:3

2:00

02:1

8:00

03:0

4:00

03:5

0:00

04:3

6:00

05:2

2:00

06:0

8:00

06:5

4:00

07:4

0:00

08:2

6:00

09:1

2:00

09:5

8:00

10:4

4:00

11:3

0:00

12:1

6:00

13:0

2:00

13:4

8:00

14:3

4:00

15:2

0:00

16:0

6:00

16:5

2:00

17:3

8:00

18:2

4:00

19:1

0:00

19:5

6:00

20:4

2:00

21:2

8:00

22:1

4:00

23:0

0:00

23:4

6:00

Dev

ResProdClimprod


NCEP Supercomputing Performance Growth

350 1179 1179 1849 18494379 4379

13990 15470

69735

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Years

Gig

aflo

ps (L

inpa

ck)

2009

15470

2010

69735


40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar July Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Dec Apr Aug

Perc

ent o

n Ti

me

Product Generation Summary

Posted within 15 minutes TOC Retrieved within 15 minutes

C90 Fire

J90 Backup Operations

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

IBM SP Phase II CCS Phase IICray Phase III

Product On-Time Percentage

Yearly Average2006: 99.42%2007: 99.70%2008: 99.82%2009: 99.85%


2010 System/Operations Initiatives

Model Implementation Streamline implementation process– launches this

year

Production Supercomputers Additional 100TB disk storage (multicluster-GPFS)

pending funding – this year New Operational Supercomputer acquisition and

transition – 2012-2013

CSAB Spring 2010 9

Forecast Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Weather and Climate

Fore

cast

Lea

d Ti

me

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

NCEP Model Perspective

Mar

itim

e

Life

& P

rope

rty

Spac

e Ope

ratio

ns

Recr

eatio

nEc

osys

tem

Envi

ronm

ent

Emer

genc

y M

gmt

Agric

ultu

re

Rese

rvoi

r Con

trol

Ener

gy P

lann

ing

Com

mer

ce

Hyd

ropo

wer

Fire

Wea

ther

Hea

lth

Avia

tion

• North American Ensemble Forecast System

• Climate Forecast System

• Short-Range Ensemble Forecast• Land Surface• Ocean• Waves• Tropical Cyclone

• Global Forecast System

• North American Mesoscale • Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

• Dispersion Models for DHS

- GFDL - HWRF

• Global Ensemble Forecast System

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 10

Ranked Probabilistic Skill Score

New SREF

N-1 version

Improved CONUS short range ensemble system

CONUS 2 meter temperature02 February – 10 August 2009 Upgrade models: WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM

Increase horizontal resolution: ARW (45 km to 35 km) NMM (40 km to 32 km) RSM (40 km to 32 km)

Total Membership = 21: Adding 4 WRF Reduces Eta by 4 members

For the 3 RSM members: replace Zhou cloud with Ferrier Use Global Ensemble Transform (ET) perturbations for

the 10 WRF members Increase output frequency from every 3 hr to hourly

for 1st 39hr (for SPC, AWC) Add/fix/unify variables in SREF output

radar (composite reflectivity + echo top) (for FAA) unify PBL height diagnosis with critical Ri (aviation) fix cloud base (aviation) BUFR broken out into individual station time-series

(SPC)

Upgrades to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF)

System Implemented 27 October 2009

model (dash)output (black solid)

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 11

GSI 3D-VAR Implemented 15 December 2010

Operational GFS

GFS Phase1 Tropical Cyclone Average Track Errors (NM)2008 Atlantic Season (1 July - 10 Nov)

GSI/GFS (phase1)

• Includes all four daily cycles (00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC)• GFS/GSI phase1 tropical cyclone track error reduced through 120h hours• The 120h track error reduced by 8% (117 cases)

Forecast Hour

Assimilate: NOAA-19 AMSU-

A/B, HIRS RARS 1b data NOAA-18 SBUV/2

and OMI

Improved use of GPS RO observations

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 12

Global Ensemble Forecast System System Implemented 23 February 2010

Upgrade horizontal resolution from T126 to T190 4 cycles per day, 20+1 members per cycle Up to 384 hours (16 days)

Use 8th order horizontal diffusion for all resolutions Improved forecast skills and ensemble spread

Add stochastic perturbation scheme to account for random model errors Increased ensemble spread and forecast skill (reliability)

Add new variables (27 more) to pgrba files Based on user request From current 52 (variables) to future 79 (variables) For NAEFS ensemble data exchange

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 13

North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

Collaboration between NCEP, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), FNMOC and Mexico Weather Service Elements:

Demonstrate value of Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) Engage in collaborative software development, focused on postprocessing products from

an arbitrary number of forecast systems Establish operational data transfer Application to operational products with shared software Continue to monitor value-added with MME strategy

Global ensemble products NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

operational in NAEFS 20 members -16 days

CMC operational in NAEFS 20 members - 16 days

FNMOC experimental in NAEFS 16 members – 10 days

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 14

Raw NCEP

NAEFS + FNMOCStat. corr.

NAEFS

Combined NCEP – CMC (NAEFS) show further increase in skill (6.2d)

Addition of FNMOC to NAEFS leads to modest improvement (6.7d)

Raw NCEP ensemble has modest skill (3.4d)

Statistically corrected NCEP ensemble has improved skill (4.8d)

0.5 CRPS skill

Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS T2m: Against analysis (NCEP’s evaluation, 4 of 4)

Value-added by including FNMOC ensembleinto NAEFS 2m Temperature

X

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 15

Modify GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL GSI/GFS Resolution Increase

T382 (~35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L

GFS Plans for FY10 Scheduled June 2010

Updated GFS physics package eliminates grid-point precipitation “bombs”Observed Operational GFS Upgraded Physics GFS

24 h accumulated precip ending 12 UTC 14 July 2009

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 16

2009 ImplementationsGFS

-New data sources and improved numerical techniques in the GSI-Unified post-processor for GFS and GDAS-Accuracy in formulation of some diagnostic variables improved-Additional parameters added to products

1st Qtr FY10 12/15/09

HWRF- Structural changes only, no scientific upgrade

1st Qtr FY10 11/24/09

GEFS- Increase horizontal resolution T126->T190 for 4 daily cycles out to 384H; use 8th horizontal diffusion for all horizontal resolutions; introduce stochastic perturbation scheme

2nd Qtr FY10 2/23/10

RUC- Extend forecast 18H; provide output every hour of forecast period

2nd Qtr FY10 3/02/10

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 17

2010 ImplementationsChange Planned ActualRTMA

- Add Guam 2.5 km NDFD grid; reduce RTMA grid spacing: CONUS from 5 km to 2.5 km, AK from 6 km to 3 km

3rd Qtr FY10

AQM- Add Ozone for AK; ozone and smoke for HI; add HYSPLIT smoke run for Hawaii; add CMAQ (sfc ozone) runs for AK and HI

3rd Qtr10

HYSPLIT- Upgrade dispersion model; include advanced physics, transport mechanisms, capability to deal with dust

4th Qtr10

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 18

2010 ImplementationsChange Planned ActualGlobal Multi-Grid Wave Model

- Generate GRIB2 output earlier in run; increase internal spectral model resolution; increase spectral resolution of point output

2nd Qtr FY10

Hurricane Wave Model- Upgrade to new multi-grid model running global NAH and NPH grids as a single model

2nd Qtr FY10

RTOFS- Add Jason-2 altimeter data; incremental upgrade of data assimilation schemes

1st Qtr FY10 11/03/09

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 19

2010 ImplementationsChange Planned Actual

GFSHorizontal Resolution Increase to T574 (27 km) with upgraded physics package NOTE: Format of 0.5 & 1.0 Grids will not change, but size and content of sigma or gaussian grid files will change. Details will be contained in forthcoming TIN.

3rd Qtr FY10

HWRFModified initialization and surface physics Couple with HYCOM

3rd Qtr FY09

GEFS- NAEFS: Downscaling for Alaska- NAEFS: Inclusion of FNMOC Ensembles- 3-D mask for ET with rescaling, auto adjust stochastic perturbations

2nd Qtr FY104th Qtr FY104th Qtr FY10

RUC - Rapid Refresh - WRF ARW Based 4th Qtr FY10

April 7-8, 2010

CSAB Spring 2010 20

2010 ImplementationsChange Planned ActualRTMA

- CONUS upgrade to 2.5 km, AK 3 km- Shift AK RTMA Grid

4th Qtr FY104th Qtr FY10

AQM- Extended CONUS AQFS (ozone) to HI- CONUS dust &/or smoke

3rd Qtr FY103rd Qtr FY10

HYSPLIT- CONUS dust 3rd Qtr FY10

4th Qtr FY10HI-Res Window

- Upgrade WRF model, add Guam, turn off RSM for HI

3rd Qtr FY10Wave Ensemble

- Combine FNMOC & NCEP wave models- Extend NCEP wave model to 10 days

4th Qtr FY10HI-Res Window

- Upgrade WRF model, add Guam, turn off RSM for HI

3rd Qtr FY10Wave Ensemble

- Combine FNMOC & NCEP wave models- Extend NCEP wave model to 10 days

April 7-8, 2010

See http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ for change descriptions and Technical Information Notices (TINs)

Documents

NCEP Site Update WG-CSAB – Spring 2010