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Response to NCEP Reviews/ NCEP Update. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP. 90 th AMS Annual Meeting Atlanta, Georgia January 19, 2009. “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”. Outline. General response to UCAR reviews 2009 NCEP highlights - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of Response to NCEP Reviews/ NCEP Update

  • Response to NCEP Reviews/NCEP Update Dr. Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP

    90th AMS Annual MeetingAtlanta, GeorgiaJanuary 19, 2009Where Americas Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin

  • *OutlineGeneral response to UCAR reviews2009 NCEP highlightsComputer transitionModel implementationsPerformance metricsDropout Team accomplishmentsPrediction of December 8-9 Midwest StormClimate portalReanalysis statusCenter highlights for 20092010 model implementationsBudget informationNew building statusSummary

  • Response to Reviews

  • *General ResponseDeep appreciation for the amazing amount of work and dedication of the review teamsI believe many of the issues articulated can be addressed within NCEP resourcesOther issues that will necessitate efforts within the NOAA budget approval processAlready begun acting on several of the recommendations (e.g., secured 2 FTEs for the SPC fire weather program)Individual centers are assessing reports and communicating with the workforce laying out strategies for moving forward (e.g., EMC- NCO)

  • UCAR Review of EMCRecognition of EMCs fundamental role inScientific maintenance of NCEPs operational systemsTransition to operations of new capabilitiesEnhancement of current operational capabilitiesRecognition of high level of organizational achievementConcerns and issuesGlobal system falling behind international competitorsToo many modelsInteractions with research community less than desirableLess than adequate computing resourcesMismatch of human resources and scope of workWorking relationship with NCORecommendationsSingle atmosphere-ocean-land surface modeling systemImplement advanced data assimilation system across atmospheric applicationsWork closer with NCO onImplementation processStrategic issues (e.g. computing resources)Improving relationships at all levelsMore details will be available after Review Team presentation at AMS next week*

  • EMC and NCO Response to UCAR Review TeamEMC should:Have access to substantially increased computer capabilitiesMatch human resources to the stated operational missionEmbrace an entirely new approach to model development and implementation focus on a single, powerful, flexible atmosphere-ocean-land surface modeling system involve the entire national weather and climate modeling communityEmploy data assimilation capabilities that are significantly advanced beyond those now used NCEP must alleviate tensions between NCO and EMC EMC and NCO Directors and staff recognize these tensions and are determined to alleviate them and improve working relationships at all levelsSince July 2009, NCO and EMC Directors are working together to:Begin to improve and streamline the implementation processManage progress toward individual implementations on a weekly basisManage use of HPC resources at NCEPs disposal (Resource Allocation Council)Support operational applications from the NOAA National Ocean ServiceApplications planned for 2010-2011 implementationGreat Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, Tampa Bay, Delaware Bay, Gulf of Mexico, Columbia RiverIntroduce Tsunami and Space Weather to NCEPs operational applicationsAdvocate for increased HPC resources through NOAA HPC management and upper level NOAA program management EMC and NCO Directors are Supportive of and enthusiastic about these developmentsDetermined to institute an atmosphere of full cooperation between NCO and EMC at management and working levels*

  • *Next StepsContinue to engage the Review Executive Board at each step to insure response meets recommendations and provide semi-annual reports for larger communityNCEP management meeting (January 28)Develop matrix for all recommendationsTrack all related activitiesLook to FY10 budget to initiate changesSeparate out the longer term issues and recommendations and begin engaging review committee and NOAA process for solutionsExplore various approaches for standing up an NCEP Advisory group. Establish by end of FY10Longer termNOAA/PPBES process (e.g., NOAA already addressing NCEP operational computer)NWS OSIP ProcessNCEP Summit in March, 2010 (organized by NWSHQ/OCWWS)Engage NOAAs Environmental Model Program (EMP)All NOAA modeling, HPCC, resource issues need to be worked through EMPEngage NWSEO at each step

  • 2009 NCEP Highlights

  • *Central Computer System (CCS)Popularity of NCEP Models Web PageMillions of Hits20012009Transition to IBM Power 6 completeDeclared operational August 12, 200969.7 trillion calculations/secFactor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 4,992 processors20 terabytes of memory 330 terabytes of disk space1.7 billion observations/day27.8 Million model fields/dayPrimary: Gaithersburg, MDBackup: Fairmont, WVGuaranteed switchover in 15 minutesWeb access to models as they run on the CCS

  • * FY2009 Implementations

    ChangePlannedActualRUC- 3-D Radar Reflectivity, Rapid Radiative Transfer Model11/17/08Wave Watch III- Great Lakes NDFD Wind Driven Model11/18/08NAM- WRF-NMM radiation parameterization, changing the turbulent mixing and diffusion schemes, two cold-season related changes to the WRF-NMM land-surface physics, TAMDAR data

    12/16/08Moratorium for CCS P6 UpgradeDec 08 - Jun 09 Aug 09Ended8/12/09GSI- Add IASI long wave brightness temperatures; improve computational efficiency; new version of CRTM_GFSGSI for radiative transfer; change background error variances and standard deviations; variational QC

    2/20/09

  • RecordValue*

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  • Day at which fcst loses useful skill (AC=0.6) N. Hemisphere calendar year meansForecast day*

  • *

  • *

  • *

  • *

  • Placeholder for Dropout slides (2)*

  • GFS dropouts that are 0.70 The month of October for the last 3 years has produced a total of 17 dropouts in the NH Decrease in NH dropouts during the winter months In general, almost 3 times as many dropouts in the SH compared to NH (36 NH vs. 93 SH)

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    04

    05

    16

    06

    15

    14

    75

    16

    13

    61

    31

    02

    Northern Hem.

    Southern Hem.

    Month-Year

    # of Dropouts

    # of GFS Dropouts (Oct '07-Dec '09)

    Chart4

    510

    01

    03

    02

    02

    09

    04

    05

    33

    41

    03

    00

    75

    07

    02

    03

    04

    16

    04

    13

    12

    55

    14

    02

    50

    31

    02

    00

    Northern Hem.

    Southern Hem.

    Month-Year

    # of dropouts

    Monthly Count of GFS Dropouts (Oct '07-Dec '09)

    ALL NH Drops

    Initialization Date (YYYYMMDDHH)GFS 5-day ACECMWF 5-day ACMonthly GFS dropout countsNHSHMonthly GFS dropout counts < 0.7NHSH

    20071021120.470.74Oct-07611Oct-07510

    20071022000.570.85Nov-0732Nov-0701

    20071022120.610.87Dec-0713Dec-0703

    20071023120.640.85Jan-0802Jan-0802

    20071111120.710.92Feb-0812Feb-0802

    20071220120.710.88Mar-08211Mar-0809

    20080121000.760.87Apr-0807Apr-0804

    20080217120.720.91May-0807May-0805

    20080301120.770.75Jun-0846Jun-0833

    20080304000.750.92Jul-0863Jul-0841

    20080304120.730.88Aug-0813Aug-0803

    20080604000.770.73Sep-0802Sep-0800

    20080605000.620.79Oct-0885Oct-0875

    20080606000.780.72Nov-0809Nov-0807

    20080625000.630.90Dec-0804Dec-0802

    20080702000.720.84Jan-0904Jan-0903

    20080702120.700.89Feb-0905Feb-0904

    20080703000.710.89Mar-0916Mar-0916

    20080704120.710.85Apr-0906Apr-0904

    20080706000.780.75May-0915May-0913

    20080707000.610.66Jun-0914Jun-0912

    20080707120.640.79Jul-0975Jul-0955

    20080708120.710.72Aug-0916Aug-0914

    20080710000.660.85Sep-0913Sep-0902

    20080719000.700.87Oct-0961Oct-0950

    20080923000.770.72Nov-0931Nov-0931

    20080923120.750.75Dec-0902Dec-0902

    20081004000.640.81Jan-1000Jan-1000

    20081004120.750.65

    20081010120.690.80

    20081011000.620.87

    20081011120.690.75

    20081012000.630.82

    20081012120.690.76

    20081013000.720.87

    20081021000.690.74

    20090306000.840.72

    20090316000.700.80

    20090515120.740.74

    20090523000.70.84

    20090614000.70.67

    20090614120.740.65

    20090704000.660.85

    20090707120.690.76

    20090708000.690.82

    20090728000.70.87

    20090728120.670.86

    20090804120.680.87

    20090830120.570.8

    20090925120.670.89

    20091024000.680.89

    20091024120.680.78

    20091026000.680.81

    20091031000.540.61

    20091031120.650.6

    20091101000.690.75

    20091129000.670.8

    20091129120.540.79

    ALL SH Drops

    Initialization Date (YYYYMMDDHH)GFS 5-day ACECMWF 5-day AC

    20070929120.700.91

    20071002120.660.82

    20071004120.650.82

    20071006120.520.90

    20071007000.670.87

    20071013000.680.84

    20071014000.630.83

    20071020000.650.82

    20071119120.640.90

    20071216120.680.90

    20071220000.670.90

    20071220120.650.83

    20080111000.680.83

    20080111120.840.74

    20080112120.690.89

    20080201000.680.74

    20080201120.790.73

    20080203000.650.83

    20080215120.860.75

    20080217000.730.87

    20080220000.840.74

    20080301120.750.60

    20080302120.730.68

    20080303000.670.82

    20080303120.590.85

    20080309120.710.91

    20080310120.710.89

    20080312120.740.73

    20080313000.690.71

    20080314120.760.58

    20080318000.590.79

    20080318120.660.63

    20080320120.640.78

    20080409000.690.85

    20080425000.670.77

    20080425120.670.80

    20080426000.610.91

    20080509000.680.90

    20080510000.690.86

    20080515120.650.90

    20080522000.600.87

    20080522120.550.82

    20080612120.640.85

    20080625000.700.89

    20080625120.660.87

    20080725000.690.82

    20080805000.690.87

    20080815000.800.71

    20080816000.670.85

    20080819120.680.84

    20080902120.840.69

    20080903000.800.71

    20081009120.670.92

    20081012120.650.83

    20081013000.710.87

    20081019120.650.83

    20081021120.650.76

    20081022000.610.76

    20081106000.700.89

    20081106120.680.92

    20081107000.690.90

    20081109000.690.84

    20081109120.660.82

    20090102120.610.81

    20090103000.440.79

    20090103120.550.81

    20090210120.660.80

    20090211000.690.82

    20090220120.650.78

    20090221000.610.63

    20090221120.700.83

    20090309120.750.70

    20090310120.760.74

    20090311120.640.75

    20090312000.640.82

    20090312120.680.85

    20090322120.640.69

    20090323000.660.72

    20090325000.680.86

    20090404120.740.73

    20090405000.790.67

    20090406000.670.83

    20090407000.770.73

    20090409000.600.82

    20090409120.590.85

    20040410000.490.78

    20040417000.700.91

    20090418000.810.75

    20090517120.690.84

    20090521000.700.92

    20090529120.670.89

    20090609000.700.88

    20090625120.640.77

    20090626000.66N/A

    20090703000.600.85

    20090703120.600.85

    20090704000.590.85

    20090704120.620.85

    20090705000.640.84

    20090801120.700.83

    20090812000.510.95

    20090821120.670.82

    20090823120.630.85

    20090824000.570.90

    20090902120.650.90

    20090915000.700.86

    20091108120.870.72

    20091109000.850.53

    20091109120.810.74

    20091119000.610.91

    20091220120.700.84

    20091228000.670.77

    NH and SH Drop List

    Dropout Table

    Northern Hem.Southern Hem.

    20071021122007092912

    20071022002007100212

    20071022122007100412

    20071023122007100612

    20071111122007100700

    20071220122007101300

    20080121002007101400

    20080217122007102000

    20080301122007111912

    20080304002007121612

    20080304122007122000

    20080604002007122012

    20080605002008011100

    20080606002008011112

    20080625002008011212

    20080702002008020100

    20080702122008020112

    20080703002008020300

    20080704122008021512

    20080706002008021700

    20080707002008022000

    20080707122008030112

    20080708122008030212

    20080710002008030300

    20080719002008030312

    20080923002008030912

    20080923122008031012

    20081004002008031212

    20081004122008031300

    20081010122008031412

    20081011002008031800

    20081011122008031812

    20081012002008032012

    20081012122008040900

    20081013002008042500

    20081021002008042512

    20090306002008042600

    20090316002008050900

    20090515122008051000

    20090523002008051512

    20090614002008052200

    20090614122008052212

    20090704002008061212

    20090707122008062500

    20090708002008062512

    20090728002008072500

    20090728122008080500

    20090804122008081500

    20090830122008081600

    20090925122008081912

    20091024002008090212

    20091024122008090300

    20091026002008100912

    20091031002008101212

    20091031122008101300

    20091101002008101912

    20091129002008102112

    20091129122008102200

    2008110600

    2008110612

    2008110700

    2008110900

    2008110912

    2009010212

    2009010300

    2009010312

    2009021012

    2009021100

    2009022012

    2009022100

    2009022112

    2009030912

    2009031012

    2009031112

    2009031200

    2009031212

    2009032212

    2009032300

    2009032500

    2009040412

    2009040500

    2009040600

    2009040700

    2009040900

    2009040912

    2004041000

    2004041700

    2009041800

    2009051712

    2009052100

    2009052912

    2009060900

    2009062512

    2009062600

    2009070300

    2009070312

    2009070400

    2009070412

    2009070500

    2009080112

    2009081200

    2009082112

    2009082312

    2009082400

    2009090212

    2009091500

    2009110812

    2009110900

    2009110912

    2009111900

  • Actions Undertaken through Drop Out TeamGoal: Improvement of the GFS using dropouts as case studies measuring ECMWF differences with GFS and other statistics to solve QC and other related problemsCurrently operational:Updated the station dictionary (dropout relieved during the testing period)Regional ATOVS Retransmission (RARS) resulting in more polar orbitsP5 to P6 transition change in data dump time for longer data windowNESDIS response to satellite data issue more promptPending:Asymmetric satellite wind quality controlReal Time Data Monitoring System (RTDMS) extended to 30 day archive

  • Increasing realization that NAM and SREF are becoming important tool for Days 1-3 forecast of extreme eventsDec 8-9th Midwest Snowstormmodel "spread" from 5 days out, with the white swath being the spread of the ECWMF, Canadian, and GFS Ensembles 48 hours out, with the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian plotted. The NAM is the left outlier, which tracked it right over Milwaukee 48 hours out. The SREF had a similar track. Verification*Prediction of December 8-9 Midwest Storm

  • NCS Climate Portal: Data & ServicesNOAA is developing a comprehensive, Climate Portal that provides ready access to all NOAA climate data, products, and services.www.climate.gov*

  • *NCEP Climate Forecast System ReanalysisComplete as of November 2009A global, high resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system for the period 1979-2009. Atmosphere resolution: 38 km (T382), 64 levels extending to 0.26 hPaOcean resolution: 0.25 degree at the equator, 40 levels to 4737 m depthProducts available at hourly time resolution, 0.5 degree horizontal resolution, and at 37 standard pressure levelsCFSR products began being transmitted on December 7, 2009, to the NOAA National Climate Data Center (NCDC), the official dissemination outlet for the CFSR. NCAR will also host a copy of the CFSR.CPC is in the process of generating its operational climate diagnostics products from the CFSR data. An operational implementation of the entire CFSR system, including all hindcast model runs, is scheduled for Q1 of FY11.

  • *Highlights from 2009NCO Implementation of Power6; migrating NAWIPS to AWIPS2EMC - porting the NCEP Production System to the Power 6 system (with NCO)HPC - operational implementation of the forecast graphics and narratives for AlaskaOPC - Ocean surface current and SST forecast (experimental)CPC contribution to the climate.gov Climate PortalAWC operational production of G-AIRMETSPC - routine issuance of high-time resolution probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts in support of the aviation and severe weather communitiesNHC - continued improving absolute error reduction and increased skill in track forecast for critical decision timesSWPC Securing budget increase for operational transition; initiated WSA/Enlil model transition

  • FY2010 Model Implementations SREF: Increase resolution to 32 km GEFS/NAEFS: T126T190 GFS: Increase resolution to T574 (27 km) NAEFS: Include FNMOC WaveWatch III: Global multi-grid wave model HIRES window: Improved high res WRF model Test Mode: Data Assimilation GSFC/GMAO/NCEP 4D VAR is proceeding

  • FY2010 Budget Information

  • *NCEP Historical Base Funding (Direct Appropriation) * Another $10-$15M Other Funding Sources$106.9M

  • *New Building StatusWork stoppage in December 2008 when 75% completeDeveloper filed Federal lawsuit to recover damages from U.S. GovernmentDeveloper filed for bankruptcy, June 2009 (in County Court)Receiver appointed by County Court in August 2009 and has taken over security, dehumidification services and repaired water leaksGSA continuing negotiations with Receiver to enable construction of facility to be completedFederal lawsuit heard on January 11, 2010; judgment expected in FebruaryMost optimistic schedule shows work resuming in July 2010 and NCWCP ready for occupancy in July 2011

  • *SummaryPositioning NCEP to respond to review in most positive, timely mannerWorking an aggressive model implementation schedule addressing the Drop Out issueHopeful on new building issue, but still in the courts

  • Appendix

  • Reaching Our GoalsGoal: Improvement of the GFS using dropouts as case studies measuring ECMWF differences with GFS and other statistics to solve QC problemsExtended network of partners upstream of the data flow concerned with dropouts (NESDIS, NRL, COPC,)Developed an additional framework for parallel experiments of raw observations (dumps) from data tanks, e.g. station dictionary changesPerformed impact experiments modifying or withholding select observations within the PREPBUFR or non-conventional filesComparisons between GFS and ECMWF using controlled (ECM) experiments to show the horizontal and vertical location of IC differences that caused dropoutsEstablishment of standard procedures when dropouts occurHigh-resolution (91 layer) ECMWF analysis in addition to low-resolution (ECM) experimentsCompiled statistics of how the GSI draws for observation types to quantify inherent biases and implement improvements to QC programs an ongoing programReal Time Data Monitoring System (RTDMS) extended to 30 days

  • * FY2010 Implementations

    ChangePlannedActualSREFIncrease resolution of WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM to 32 km

    - Expand bias correction from CONUS to North America; statistical downscaling using 12 km NAM and using 5km RTMA10/27/09HWRF- Structural changes only, no scientific upgrade

    11/24/09GFS/GSI Post consolidation GFS code restructuring New data types added to GSI 12/15/09

  • * FY2010 Implementations

    ChangePlannedActualRTOFS- Add Jason-2 altimeter data; incremental upgrade of data assimilation schemes

    11/03/09GEFS- Increase horizontal resolution T126->T190 for 4 daily cycles out to 384H; use 8th horizontal diffusion for all horizontal resolutions; introduce stochastic perturbation scheme

    2/16/10RUC- Extend forecast 18H; provide output every hour of forecast period2/16/10NAEFS- Downscaling for Alaska 2nd Qtr FY10

  • * FY2010 Implementations

    ChangePlannedActualGlobal Multi-Grid Wave Model- Generate GRIB2 output earlier in run; increase internal spectral model resolution; increase spectral resolution of point output2nd Qtr FY10Hurricane Wave Model- Upgrade to new multi-grid model running global NAH and NPH grids as a single model2nd Qtr FY10

  • * FY2010 Implementations

    ChangePlannedActualGFS- Horizontal Resolution Increase to T574 (27 km) with upgraded physics package3rd Qtr FY10

    HWRF- Couple with HYCOM3rd Qtr FY09NAEFS- Inclusion of FNMOC Ensembles4th Qtr FY10GEFS- 3-D mask for ET with rescaling, auto adjust stochastic perturbations4th Qtr FY10RUC - WRF Based4th Qtr FY10

  • * FY2010 Implementations

    ChangePlannedActualRTMA CONUS upgrade to 2.5 km, AK 3 km Shift AK RTMA Grid4th Qtr FY104th Qtr FY10AQM Extended CONUS AQFS (ozone) to HI CONUS dust &/or smoke3rd Qtr FY103rd Qtr FY10HYSPLIT- CONUS dust3rd Qtr FY10Wave Ensemble Combine FNMOC & NCEP wave models Extend NCEP wave model to 10 days3rd Qtr FY10HI-Res Window Upgrade WRF model, add Guam, turn off RSM for HI4th Qtr FY10

    **********