NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

A New Focus on Products and Services

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin”

Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP

Space Weather WorkshopBoulder, CO

April 30, 2008

Overview

• Future is now for Space Weather– Meeting space weather service needs of a rapidly growing user base

• SWPC positioning itself in the new era– Reorganized with a focus on customers, products, service

delivery and R2O– Partnerships – need to leverage community assets– Accelerated pace of technology and science advances – need to facilitate R2O

• Challenges– Uncertain budget – Developing infrastructure for R2O – “to accelerate R2O – must

support O2R”– Space-based Observations – IT facility issues

Growth of Space WeatherGrowth of Space WeatherUsers and CustomersUsers and Customers

NOAA Space WeatherPrediction Center

Sunspot CyclesSunspot Cycles

Commercial Space Transportation

Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology

Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation

EACH MONTH AT SWPC

400,000 Unique Users

50,000,000 File Transfers

120 Countries Represented by Users

67,500,000 Web Hits

0.3 TBytes of Data Downloaded

2008

• Plot does not include POES, GOES, and ACE real time solar wind data sets, (14 million file transfers per month)

• Over 1,000 event-driven products issued during solar “minimum” years 2006 & 2007

• Over 6500 unique users subscribe to SWPC’s web product services

• ~150 new users each month

SWPC Product Subscription Registrations2005 - 2008

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Increasing Space Weather Customers and Requirements

• GPS users represent the fastest growing customer base for SWPC

– Space weather is the largest error source for GPS

– GPS used in drilling, surveying, agriculture,

aviation, DoD operations, much more

• Fast-changing needs in aviation community

– 13 airlines will fly ~8,000 polar flights in 2008

– Transportation System (NextGen) - Wide-ranging transformation of national air transportation system will rely on satellite-based technology

Growing Space Weather Needs

Space Weather Prediction Center

Reorganization

• Align organizational structure with new fundamental emphasis on operations

ForecastOffice

Development and Transition

Research and Customer

Requirements

Space Weather Services

DirectorExecutive Officer

Secretary

Administrative and Technical Support

Strategic DirectionTeam

• Transfer from OAR to NWS – January 2005• Bottoms-up Reorganization Activities Commence – August 2006• Name Change to Space Weather Prediction Center – July 2007• Reorganization Officially Effected – February 2008

• Address the rapid changes in our user base

• Permit efficient and timely R2O

Branch Branch

Section Section Office

The Future of Space WeatherPartnerships: Research and R2O

“A US multi-agency partnership to enable, support, and perform the

research and development for next generation space science and space

weather models”

Leverage Community Assets

• Strategy: Leverage External Research Activities

Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies

• Coordination: National Space Weather Program

Customer-Centered and Partner-focused

Private sector- Work with the private sector to augment or enhance NCEP products and services.- Leverage private sector technology innovations.

Federal partners, Academic partners and the Research Community

- Assess coordinate and share resources and capabilities.- Pursue focused research and modeling activities.- Utilize other partner observations.

International partners - Share data, observations and expertise. - Share research results and actively participate in international research programs.

Accelerate R2O transition through “Test Bed” approach

Future Space Weather Prediction Models: GFS/WAM/IDEA

Geospace Model (~10 yrs?)Geospace Model (~10 yrs?) NWP in coupled geospace?NWP in coupled geospace? DA in IDEA domain?DA in IDEA domain? Coupling with heliosphere?Coupling with heliosphere?

GeospaceGeospace

GFS-2008GFS-2008

GFS-2008GFS-2008 Improved thermodynamics etc.Improved thermodynamics etc. TTO 2008 (3 FTE)TTO 2008 (3 FTE) D D TTO ~2–3 yrs. TTO ~2–3 yrs.

WAM (~3 yrs.)WAM (~3 yrs.) Extend up to 600kmExtend up to 600km Improved lower-atmospheric DAImproved lower-atmospheric DA Satellite drag products?Satellite drag products?

WAMWAM

IDEA (~5 yrs.)IDEA (~5 yrs.) Ionospheric NWPIonospheric NWP Satellite drag predictionSatellite drag prediction Coupling with geospace?Coupling with geospace?

IDEAIDEA

WAM

OpenGGCM

RCM

GIP

Solar WindIMF

SolarRadiation

OASIS

Geospace Assimilative System to fuel OASIS

Global Ionosphere Plasmasphere

Rice Convection Model

Whole Atmosphere Model

Geospace Global Circulation Model

• Budget– Sustain budget profile for SWPC

• Developing infrastructure for research-to-operations (R2O) – “to accelerate R2O – must support O2R”– Document NCEP’s forecast systems to facilitate use by larger research

community as part of “O2R” process– Collaborate on multi-model ensembles, and leverage developments

from partners– Engage science community on SWPC’s customer needs Observations

• Secure operational L1 solar wind monitor and coronagraph– Secure backup capability for GOES-10 XRS data stream

Challenges

13

Challenges

• SWPC is designated as a National Critical System (NCS), and therefore has stringent security and reliability requirements

- Complete C&A compliance measures for NCS

• Continuity of Operations requirements dictate the need for a backup system

- NOAA and USAF sites are being considered

Space Weather Enterprise Forum

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/swef/index.html

This forum will focus on the costs of space weather impacts and the benefits of improved space weather services with an emphasis on the anticipated needs of the user community in 2010-2020.

Summary

• SWPC is becoming fully integrated within NWS/NCEP service structure

• Pursuing requirements of a rapidly expanding user base

• Strengthening operational infrastructure

• Working towards the research to operations transitions needed to improve products and services in SWPC

• Will continue to work with the user and research community to advance the SWPC

• Working the budget issue for FY09 - 15

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF

• Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers

• NESDIS research and satellite services

• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

Construction Start 09-May-07

Move Start May 09

Move Complete January 10

Revised Construction Schedule

Appendix

New SWPC Product in 2008D-region Absorption over Poles

Meeting the Needs of the Aviation Community

• Existing product includes no measure of absorption over the Poles

• New product will define absorption at low and high latitudes

Future SWx Prediction Models: USTEC to GEOTEC

Europe (EUREF)

IHY-Africa

GPS occultations