North Dakota's Changing Demographics: Implications for ... · March 2010 North Dakota’s Changing Demographics: Implications for Transportation Dr. Richard Rathge. ... Me rcer Roberts

Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center March 2010

North Dakota’s Changing Demographics:Implications for Transportation

Dr. Richard RathgeProfessor and Director

North Dakota State Data Center

Spring 2010 Transportation Seminar Series

March 11, 2010


Presentation Objective:

1. To present an overview of historical shifts in population dynamics in North Dakota.

2. To examine main drivers of population dynamics within North Dakota.

3. To discuss the interface between populationdynamics and transportation issues.


Population

North Dakota’s population peaked in 1930 at 680,845.

The July 1, 2008 population estimate for North Dakota totaled 641,481, an increase of 3,577 persons from 2007.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

North Dakota Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and the Population Estimates Branch, http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php


North Dakota Cass County

McIntosh County

40 similar counties

4 similar counties

Percent Population Change by State, 2000 to 2009

Source: US Census BureauPrepared by the North Dakota State Data Center

March 2010




Number and Average Size of N.D. Farms, 1900-2002

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Agriculture, various years.


Farm Dependent Counties, 1950


Change in Jobs between January 2007 and June 2009

Percent Change in Total Population Estimates for North Dakota by County: July 1, 2007 to July 1, 2008



Key Demographic Drivers

1. Population consolidation

2. Rapidly shifting age distribution

3. Shifting household composition



1. Population Consolidation


N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution, 1900-2020

92.789 86.4 83.4

79.573.4

64.8

55.751.2

46.7 45.440.9

7.311 13.6 16.6

20.626.6

35.2

44.3

53.3 54.659.1

48.8

0102030405060708090

100

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2020

Year

Perc

ent

RuralUrban

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses.


North Dakota City Size: 2000

City Size Distribution in North Dakota: 2000

100 to 249 Persons

0 to 99 Persons35%

2,500+ Persons 5%

250 to 2,499 Persons

37%

Chart taken from the May 2002 Issue of the Population Bulletin, published monthly by the North Dakota State Data Center (Vol. 18, No. 5).

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000.

Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center June 2008

16

Population Density

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenry

Sioux

Mountrail

Divide

Burleigh

Benson

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

RichlandLogan

Dickey

TraillMercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

Eddy

Hettinger La Moure

Steele

Oliver

Grand Forks

Sargent

Sheridan

Ransom

GriggsFoster

Renville

McIntosh

GoldenValley

Persons Per Square MileLess than 66 to 1617 to 4546 or more

Population Density in North Dakota by County: 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000.




2. Shifting age distribution


A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000(National data)

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14121086420Population (in millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.

85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Male Female


A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020

Male Female

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14121086420Population (in millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.

85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701)

231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

21

Baby Boomers reach age 65

2.8 million beginning 2011 -- 4 million by 2020

or 5,000 a day (on average)

Baby Boomers enter age 85

Source: Older Americans 2004



Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Populationin North Dakota by County: 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenryMountrail

Sioux

Benson

Divide

Burleigh

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

RichlandLogan

Dickey

TraillMercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

LaMoure

Eddy

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Grand Forks

Sargent

Sheridan

Renville

Ransom

GriggsFoster

McIntosh

GoldenValley

Less than 15%15% to 21.9%22% to 27.9%28% or more


Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Populationin North Dakota by County: 2020Source: North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020, Sept. 2002

Less than 15%15% to 21.9%22% to 27.9%28% or more

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenryMountrail

Sioux

Benson

Divide

Burleigh

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

RichlandLogan

Dickey

TraillMercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

LaMoure

Eddy

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Grand Forks

Sargent

Sheridan

Renville

Ransom

GriggsFoster

McIntosh

North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701)

231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

25

The Elderly – 85 plus

0 %- 1.14%1.15% - 1.81%1.82% - 2.52%2.53% - 3.52%3.53% - 6.64%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Persons Age 85 and Older as a Percentage of Total Persons by State: 2000



North Dakota Public K-12 Enrollment, 2004-2006 and 2008-2016 Projections

Source: ND Department of Public Instruction


2000 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota

Traditional

Babyboom

X Generation

Y Generation


PERCENT CHANGE IN PERSONS:2000 to 2010 & 2000 to 2020(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)


Peaked in 1990Peaked in 2000

Relatively stable until 2005

Population Distribution by Age of Earner in North Dakota: 1980-2020

Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center March 2010Source: Census Bureau & North Dakota

State Data Center

N.D. Labor Force, by Generation



3. Changing household composition


Households by Type

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000

Hous

ehold

s

Married withChildren

Marriedwithoutchildren

Other familywith children

Other familywithoutchildren

Nonfamilyhoushold

North Dakota Households by Type: 1960 to 2000

19601970198019902000


Persons Per Household

2.63 2.51 2.382.18

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

Pers

ons P

er H

ouse

hold

1980 1990 2000 2006

Fargo-Moorhead Area Household Size


Interface Between Population and Transportation

1. Commuting patterns

2. Challenges in service delivery

3. Senior transportation

North Dakota: 93.0%Less than 60%60% to 79.9%80% to 89.9%90% or more




1970 Census

1980 Census

1990 Census

2000 Census

Percentage of Resident Workers Who Work in County of Residence: 1970 to 2000

Daytime Population

North Dakota = 1.7% IncreaseDecreaseIncrease

Change in Daytime Population Due to Commuting for North Dakota by County: 2000 North Dakota

Carter

Polk

Perkins

Dunn

Ward

Cass

CorsonHarding

McKenzieMcLean

Dawson

Grant

Brown

Day

Stark Morton

Fallon

Stutsman

WilliamsRoosevelt

Richland

Wells

Clay

Roseau

BarnesKidder

Slope

McHenry

Sioux

MarshallWalsh

Divide

Burleigh

Mountrail

Burke

Benson

Sheridan

Emmons

Pierce

Bottineau Cavalier

Traill

Dickey

Ramsey

Richland

Kittson

Billings

Logan

Mercer

Roberts

Adams

Nelson

TownerRolette

Bowman

Eddy

LaMoure

Pembina

Edmunds

Hettinger

Wilkin

Steele

Oliver

Wibaux

Renville

Sheridan

Grand Forks

SargentMcIntosh

Ransom

Foster GriggsNorman

McPherson Marshall

Grant

Campbell

Walworth

Stevens

GoldenValley

Traverse

Big Stone

Pennington

Mahnomen

Red Lake

Mo n

tana

South Dakota

Minnesota

Commuting’s Impact on Daytime Population: Census 2000

-20-15-10-505

101520

Perc

ent C

hang

e in

Day

time

Popu

latio

n D

ue to

C

omm

utin

g

Bismarck

Devils Lake

Dickinson

Fargo

Grafton

Grand Forks

GF AFB

Jamest

own

Mandan

Minot

Minot AFB

Valley City

Wahpeto

n

West

Fargo

Willi

ston

Figure 1. Percent Change in Daytime Population Due to Commuting in North Dakota Cities with at least 2,500 Workers: 2000

Chart taken from the December 2005 Issue of the Population Bulletin, published monthly by the North Dakota State Data Center (Vol. 21, No. 12).

Note: Daytime population refers to the number of people, including workers, who are present in an area during normal business hours.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Sample Data, www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/daytime/daytimepop.html

Mean Travel Time to Work

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenryMountrail

Sioux

Benson

Divide

Burleigh

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

RichlandLogan

Dickey

TraillMercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

LaMoure

Eddy

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Grand Forks

Sargent

Sheridan

Renville

Ransom

GriggsFoster

McIntosh

GoldenValley

DecreaseIncrease: 0 to 3.9 minutesIncrease: 4 to 6.9 minutesIncrease: 7 minutes or more

Change in Mean Travel Time to Work in North Dakota by County: 1990 to 2000

Public Transit Service

Source: http://www.publictransportation.org/systems/state.asp?state=ND

Ambulance company’s service areas

Source: Division of EMS and Trauma, ND Dept. of Health

Transportation Service for Seniors

Source: http://www.publictransportation.org/systems/state.asp?state=ND


Demographic Presentation 2010

Dr. Richard Rathge, Director North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND

NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58108-6050 [email protected] Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730 URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc

mailto:[email protected]�

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North Dakota's Changing Demographics: Implications for ... · March 2010 North Dakota’s Changing Demographics: Implications for Transportation Dr. Richard Rathge. ... Me rcer Roberts