Williamson County, TexasChanging Demographics and Implications of Growth

April 22, 2014

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1. How fast is Williamson growing?2. Where are people coming from?3. How is the population changing?4. What challenges are we facing?

Presentation Overview

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Growth

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

US (MSA)

Austin MSA

Real Annual GDP Growth, 2002-12

Austin MSA Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 47% between 2001 and 2012, second only to Houston MSA among metro areas with $50 billion or more.

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data adjusted for inflation (2013 Dollars).

Austin-Round Rock ranks #2 nationally in total economic growth since 2001

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Austin-Round Rock ranks #1 nationally in job growth since 2008-09 recession

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Total Non-Farm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with employment of 500,000 or more.

Rank Metro AreaEmployment

Dec 2013Job Growth

Jun 09-Dec 13 Rate

1 Austin 863,700 105,500 13.9%

2 Nashville 819,600 98,500 13.7%

3 San Jose 951,800 96,000 11.2%

4 Houston 2,812,700 283,200 11.2%

5 Charlotte 889,600 84,900 10.6%

6 Dallas 3,135,900 278,800 9.8%

7 Salt Lake City 662,100 54,900 9.0%

8 Oklahoma City 616,800 49,900 8.8%

9 Raleigh 538,100 41,300 8.3%

10 Denver 1,288,700 92,000 7.7%

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• 3 of top 10 fastest growing cities with 50K+ pop in Texas since 2010 (%): Cedar Park (#1), Georgetown (#4), Round Rock (#10)

• Growing by about 16,000 people per year; 30 net movers per day

• Housing units up 85% since 2000 (34% in Travis County)

Williamson County Growth Highlights

Source: Texas State Data Center, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2000 & 2010 Census.

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Williamson County playing an increasingly prominent role in regional growth

19001910

19201930

19401950

19601970

19801990

20002010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

26%

9%

25%

32%

74%

60%

Travis County

Source: US Census Bureau & Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin. January 2014.

Share of MSA Population, 1900-2010

Williamson County

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Migration

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Williamson County in 2010 tax year.

2010Net gain from 103 counties in other states and 51 counties in Texas

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Wayne County in 2010 tax year.

2010

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Orleans Parish in 2006 tax year.

2006

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Most people moving to WC are from Texas & usually Travis County

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Tax returns used as proxy for households. HH income is adjusted gross income per return. 2010 tax year. Nonmigrant HH income in Williamson County in 2010 was $65,778.

TexasHHs

2010HH Inc

2010

Travis County 7,951 $45,828

Harris County 488 $51,911

Bell County 470 $43,365

Bexar County 378 $45,293

Hays County 234 $36,636

Tarrant County 232 $48,586

Dallas County 219 $50,547

Bastrop County 174 $33,114

Collin County 141 $65,652

Burnet County 129 $45,232

Rest of U.S.HHs

2010HH Inc

2010

Maricopa County, AZ 173 $61,462

Los Angeles County, CA 141 $43,964

San Diego County, CA 115 $54,608

Orange County, CA 100 $52,520

Clark County, NV 93 $38,333

Cook County, IL 80 $43,500

Santa Clara County, CA 51 $63,745

Riverside County, CA 48 $46,062

Sacramento County, CA 43 $50,651

Pima County, AZ 42 $43,285

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Housing affordability undoubtedly a key driver of migration to WC

Source: Zillow., US Census Bureau, ACS 2008-2012. Median list prices in February 2014. YoY is % change since February 2013. Median multiple is the ratio of median household income to median home price and is presented here for a hypothetical 1,800 sq ft house. Historical average is 3.0.

Median RentPer Sq Ft YoY

Median BuyPer Sq Ft YoY

MedianMultiple

Austin $1.27 10% $165 13% 5.7

Cedar Park $0.91 -4% $123 13% 2.9

Georgetown $0.91 2% $123 3% 3.5

Leander $0.75 4% $107 11% 2.7

Round Rock $0.86 -5% $105 12% 2.7

Liberty Hill N/A N/A $105 6% 3.0

Pflugerville $0.90 8% $100 16% 2.4

Hutto $0.69 -8% $95 14% 2.7

Taylor N/A N/A $77 3% 3.0

Williamson County $0.93 -1% $112 10% 2.8

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A tale of two California invasions: middle-income vs. high-income

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Tax returns used as proxy for households. HH income is adjusted gross income per return. 2010 tax year.

Other State CountyTo Williamson

HHs2010

HH Inc2010

Maricopa, AZ 173 $61,462

Los Angeles, CA 141 $43,964

San Diego, CA 115 $54,608

Orange, CA 100 $52,520

Clark, NV 93 $38,333

Cook, IL 80 $43,500

Santa Clara, CA 51 $63,745

Riverside, CA 48 $46,062

Sacramento, CA 43 $50,651

Pima, AZ 42 $43,285

Other State CountyTo Travis

HHs2010

HH Inc2010

Los Angeles, CA 537 $75,657

Cook, IL 369 $48,444

Maricopa, AZ 301 $47,086

San Diego, CA 267 $52,880

New York, NY 238 $84,819

King, WA 204 $65,774

Clark, NV 193 $41,217

Orange, CA 181 $78,850

Santa Clara, CA 175 $112,885

Kings, NY 166 $48,325

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2011 2012 20130

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

20,049

22,854

13,434

10,754 9,94611,047

Travis CountyWilliamson County

Net Migration (People) to Williamson and Travis Counties, 2011-2013

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates.

Will 2014 be a tipping point w/ more people moving to WC than TC?

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Change/Challenge

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19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

201250

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Williamson

Hays

Per Capita Income (US=100)

Living wage job growth will be critical for incomes to keep pace w/ cost of living

Travis

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Asian

White

Black

Hispanic/Latino

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

27%

50%

60%

72%

Education inequality & workforce preparation are most serious threats to WC’s future prosperity

% Pop Age 25+ w/ No Completed Postsecondary Degree, 2012

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2012 Three-Year Estimates. Postsecondary degree includes associate’s degree or higher. Population projections from Texas State Data Center using the 2000-2010 migration rate scenario.

52% of Williamson County’s primary working age (25-64) residents have no completed postsecondary degree.

1 out of 2 new residents will be Hispanic over next 20 yrs.

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% Population < 125% Poverty Average Wage

White 63% 7% $57,015

Hispanic/Latino 24% 17% $37,053

Black 6% 18% $37,392

Asian 5% 11% $67,131

Can WC leverage growth opportunities to achieve inclusive wealth creation?

Population by Race/Ethnicity in Williamson County, 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2008-2012 Five-Year Estimates, Quarterly Workforce Indicators.

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1. Growth & urbanization represent opportunities and challenges for Williamson County

2. Strong foundation for promoting inclusive economic development w/ committed partnerships

3. Become the new home of “big ideas” in Central Texas

Summary

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Brian Kelsey, Principal & Founder7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108Austin, Texas 78757