NUCLEAR WEAPON RELIABILITY EVALUATION ...prod. “Nuclear Weapon Reliability Evaluation Methodology”,…

Embed Size (px)

Text of NUCLEAR WEAPON RELIABILITY EVALUATION ...prod. “Nuclear Weapon Reliability Evaluation...

  • SAND REPORT

    SAND2002-8133 Unlimited Release Printed April 2002 NUCLEAR WEAPON RELIABILITY EVALUATION METHODOLOGY

    Donald L. Wright and Rene L. Bierbaum

    Prepared by Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185 and Livermore, California 94550 Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Approved for public release; further dissemination unlimited.

  • Issued by Sandia National Laboratories, operated for the United States Department of Energy by Sandia Corporation.

    NOTICE: This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontrac-tors, or their employees, make any warranty, express or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any informa-tion, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represent that its use would not in-fringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors or subcon-tractors. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contrac-tors. Printed in the United States of America. This report has been reproduced directly from the best available copy. Available to DOE and DOE contractors from

    U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831 Telephone: (865)576-8401 Facsimile: (865)576-5728 E-Mail: reports@adonis.osti.gov Online ordering: http://www.doe.gov/bridge

    Available to the public from

    U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Rd Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone: (800)553-6847 Facsimile: (703)605-6900 E-Mail: orders@ntis.fedworld.gov Online order: http://www.ntis.gov/ordering.htm

  • - 3 -

    SAND2002-8133 Unlimited Release

    Printed April 2002

    NUCLEAR WEAPON RELIABILITY EVALUATION METHODOLOGY

    Reliability Assessment Department Sandia National Laboratories

    Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185

    Reliability and Electrical Systems Department Sandia National Laboratories Livermore, California 94551

    Prepared by Donald L. Wright Rene L. Bierbaum

    ABSTRACT

    This document provides an overview of those activities that are normally performed by Sandia National Laboratories to provide nuclear weapon reliability evaluations for the National Nuclear Security Agency. These reliability evaluations are first provided as a prediction of the attainable stockpile reliability of a proposed weapon design. Stockpile reliability assessments are provided for each weapon type as the weapon is fielded and are continuously updated throughout the weapon stockpile life. The reliability predic-tions and assessments depend heavily on data from both ground simulation tests and ac-tual flight tests. An important part of the methodology is the opportunities for review that occur throughout the entire process that assure a consistent approach and appropriate use of the data for reliability evaluation purposes.

  • - 4 -

    PREFACE This document presents an overview of the methodology used by Sandia National Labo-ratories (SNL) in performing reliability evaluations of nuclear weapons. It supersedes SAND93-0704, Nuclear Weapon Reliability Evaluation Methodology, June 1993. Various information has been updated in this version, including organization numbers, references, and recent stockpile management developments. The information presented has been extracted from a companion document, the Nuclear Weapon Reliability Evalua-tion Methodology Guide. This Guide documents the policies, practices and processes of SNL reliability evaluation organizations. The Guide is reviewed and revised periodically to reflect current practices and is maintained by the SNL Reliability Assessment Depart-ment. For further information or detail concerning the implementation of the methodol-ogy described by this report, please contact: Reliability Assessment Department, 12335 Sandia National Laboratories P.O. Box 5800, MS0830 Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185 or Reliability & Electrical Systems Department, 8205 Sandia National Laboratories P. O. Box 969, MS9202 Livermore, California 94551

  • - 5 -

    Table of Contents

    PREFACE.................................................................................................................................................................... 4

    TABLE OF CONTENTS............................................................................................................................................ 5

    TABLE OF FIGURES................................................................................................................................................ 6

    LIST OF ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................................................. 6

    1 MISSION AND PHILOSOPHY ........................................................................................................................ 7

    1.1 MISSION AND SCOPE...................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 ANALYSIS CONTEXT ...................................................................................................................................... 7 1.3 DEFINITION OF NUCLEAR WEAPON RELIABILITY........................................................................................... 9

    2 IMPLEMENTATION ...................................................................................................................................... 11

    2.1 RELIABILITY MODELING.............................................................................................................................. 11 2.2 FAILURE EVENT PROBABILITY QUANTIFICATION ........................................................................................ 13

    2.2.1 Reliability Prediction .......................................................................................................................... 13 2.2.2 Reliability Assessment ......................................................................................................................... 15 2.2.3 Prediction/Assessment Usage ............................................................................................................. 21

    2.3 SYSTEM RELIABILITY ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................. 21

    3 KEY SUPPORTING PROCESSES................................................................................................................. 27

    3.1 RELIABILITY DESIGN ................................................................................................................................... 27 3.2 TEST PROGRAMS.......................................................................................................................................... 27

    3.2.1 Product Acceptance Sample Testing ................................................................................................... 28 3.2.2 Stockpile Surveillance Program.......................................................................................................... 28 3.2.3 Other Data Sources............................................................................................................................. 29

    3.3 DOCUMENTATION ........................................................................................................................................ 29 3.3.1 Component Reliability Assessment...................................................................................................... 29 3.3.2 System Reliability Assessment ............................................................................................................. 29 3.3.3 NNSA Weapons Reliability Report ...................................................................................................... 30

    3.4 PEER REVIEW............................................................................................................................................... 31 3.4.1 Component and System Reliability Assessment Report Reviews......................................................... 31 3.4.2 Reliability Review Panel ..................................................................................................................... 31

    4 SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................................... 33

    REFERENCES.......................................................................................................................................................... 34

    DISTRIBUTION ....................................................................................................................................................... 35

  • - 6 -

    Table of Figures Figure 1: Damage Expectancy Probability Model .......................................................................... 8 Figure 2: Weapon System Reli