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October 16, 2012 State of the Industry

October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

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Page 1: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

October 16, 2012

State of the Industry

Page 2: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Today’s agendaDave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business

Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National Powersport Auctions

Hal Ethington, Senior Analyst, ADP Lightspeed

Noel Lais, Vice President of Operations, Spader Business Management

Mike Dixon, Product Release Specialist, Polk

Page 3: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Introduction

• Jim Woodruff– Chief Operating Officer, National Powersport Auctions

• 25 Years in Technology, Finance, Marketing• 12-Year Veteran in Powersports• Frequent Contributor of Data and Market Analysis

– Avid Rider

• National Powersport Auctions– Worldwide Leader in Powersport Vehicle Auction Services– Wholesale Vehicle Supply to Dealers Only via Live & Internet Venues– Serve All National Lenders and Over 10,000 Dealers– 5,000+ Vehicles/Month @ 4 US Locations

• San Diego, Dallas, Atlanta, Cincinnati

Page 4: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

NPA SAN DIEGO, CA

Page 5: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Wholesale Market Highlights

• Average Sale Prices & Seasonality• Unit Volume Trends & Seasonality• Product Mix

• Data drawn from approx 300,000 NPA transactions from 2007-2012– Includes bank repo & dealer consignment units, all of similar quality– Excludes Factory sales & certain products (scooters, boats, RVs, etc)– Assumes condition mix is constant over time– All data normalized to tune out changes year over year

Page 6: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Rela

tive

Ave

rage

Who

lesa

le P

rice

Month

Seasonal Wholesale Sales Price5-Year Average (2007-2011)

SPORT CRUISER ATV--SPORT ATV--UTILITY ATV--SIDE BY SIDE MX PWC Overall

Insights:

- Price fluctuates with season – generally strong in Spring and weaker in Summer / Fall- Seasonal effect varies with product category- Seasonality did not follow typical behavior during economic crisis and fuel price spike (esp 2008)- Product mix by age, condition and mileage affects average price

Page 7: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

Seasonal ASPCruiser

2007 2008 2009 2010

2011 2012 Grand Total

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

Seasonal ASPSport

2007 2008 2009 2010

2011 2012 Grand Total

Insights:

- Street motorcycle prices are seasonal- Strongest in Spring- Weakest in Summer & Fall

- 2008 prices peaked in Summer during gas crisis- Flattened in 2010-2011 as demand grew and supply shrank- Cruisers more consistent than Sport year-year

- HD more consistent than metric- 2012 prices holding strong

- Retail improving w/better economy- Credit default rates at historical lows

- Market would improve further with national pre-owned financing program- Cruisers (incl HD) tend to have higher ASP

- 2012YTD Cruiser ASP: $7,503- 2012YTD Sport ASP: $5,013

Page 8: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

Seasonal ASPATV-Sport

2007 2008 2009

2010 2011 2012

Grand Total

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

Seasonal ASPATV-Utility

2007 2008 2009

2010 2011 2012

Grand Total

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

Seasonal ASPATV-Side by Side

2007 2008 2009

2010 2011 2012

Grand Total

Insights:

- Off-Road pricing is seasonal (+/- ~15%)- Uplifts in both Spring and Fall, unlike Street

- Utility & Side-by-Side ATV pricing is less seasonal (+/- ~8%)- More utilitarian, less emotional / seasonal use

- Sport ATVs more sensitive to financing- Sport ATVs tend to have lower price point, hence greater %

- 2012YTD Sport ASP: $2,432- 2012YTD Utility ASP: $3,267- 2012YTD Side-by-Side ASP: $6,283

Page 9: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Mon

thly

Vol

ume

Cont

ribu

tion

Month

Wholesale Powersports Seasonal Volume

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Grand Total

Insights:

- While volumes changed significantly year-year, they behave similarly throughout each year- Volume seasonality tends to trail the riding seasons, being strongest in Spring and weakest in Summer & Fall- There is limited seasonal volume difference between product categories- Seasonality did not follow typical behavior during economic crisis, especially 2007 as the economy worsened

Page 10: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Ave

rage

Who

lesa

le P

rice

Uni

ts S

old

Quarter

Wholesale Powersports Volume / ASP Trends

Sum of TotalSold Average of AvgASP

Insights:

- Overall NPA wholesale volumes peaked in 2009 with the economic crisis, driven primarily by high repossession volumes- At the same time, average wholesale prices were weakest in 2009 when the market’s appetite for product was weakest- Economic conditions have improved since 2010, leading to higher prices while low default rates are dragging volumes down- Significant growth in dealers’ use of NPA for trades and aged inventory has helped keep product available and at moderate prices

Page 11: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Vol

ume

Rati

o

Quarter

Wholesale Powersports Product Mix

ATV--SIDE BY SIDE ATV--SPORT ATV--UTILITY CRUISER DUAL SPORT MX PWC SNOWMOBILE SPORT

Insights:

- Wholesale volumes generally follow new retail sales trends, with ~24 month lag- Credit approval rates have significant impact on both retails sales and wholesale volumes from defaulted product- Recent volume lag is longer now as loan defaults fall and portfolios age

- Cruiser volumes have continued to grow, partly due to dealer use of consignments- ATV volumes fell as credit portfolios cleaned out and retail sales declined, except for Side-by-Side ATVs as that segment grows

Page 12: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Summary

• Pricing and volumes vary 5-10% throughout the year; they are not static and are subject to many factors including selling and riding seasons, default rates and other economic conditions, financing and incentive programs, fuel prices, title processing times, bank recovery policies, etc.

• Pricing can also vary as much as 5-10% year to year in a given month • Prices generally rise 1-3% year-year as MSRP values rise; 2009 was an exception, where prices generally dropped

during the financial crisis / recession as demand waned and supply peaked • Both pricing and volume peak in Spring, which is the reverse of the law of supply and demand. This is driven by the

typical powersports selling season and consumer payment habits, and is actually good for both dealers and lenders/consignors - banks get top dollar when supply is highest and dealers have more product to choose from when they need it the most. In addition, the price spikes would be much greater if volume declined in the Spring.

• Street motorcycles (Sport and Cruiser) behave as expected - strong pricing in Spring and weaker in Fall, in sync with the selling season

• Utility and Side-by-Side ATV products have the least variance; after a little peak in Spring, their pricing stays fairly stable throughout the year

• PWC's have the greatest variance, with a slight delay in the peak closer to Summer. • Sport ATV and Off-Road (MX) products tend to have high variance, with strong peaks in Spring and steady declines

into Fall and Winter • 2011 pricing was generally more stable than most years throughout the year, especially for motorcycles. This it most

likely due to some resurgence in consumer demand combined with tighter supply. ATV pricing softened somewhat in 2011, which may be due to the lack of retail financing in that segment compared to others.

• 2012YTD (through Sep) is showing higher ASP than 2011 in most categories, with the exception of MX and PWC units. The 2012YTD trend for ASP is following a typical seasonal trend so far.

Page 13: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

For More Information…

• National Powersport Auctionswww.npauctions.com

[email protected]

858-513-1500

• Jim [email protected]

858-413-1118

Page 14: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Data Driven Decisions

The Metrics of Motorcycle Helmet Sales

Hal EthingtonADP Lightspeed

Page 15: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Helmet and Helmet Accessory Sales as % of Total P&A SalesJan – Sep 2012

IN AL HI ID WAMD NV AK ND PR NY CA NM TN NC GA VT KS VA CO UT OR FL OK MI MT TX IL MN PA ME AZ SD WI OH WYMO NH MA IA WV0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%9.1%

8.7%

7.5%6.9%

6.4%5.5%

4.9%4.5%

4.0% 3.7% 3.4%2.9%

V-Twin Dealers

States With Helmet LawStates Without Helmet Law

DE SC NJ

GA VT

VA

MD CO WA PA NY

NV CA CT KS IN

MA WI IL N

H MI

ME

SD HI

OR FL AR AL

OH IA NE

NC

ND

MS

OK TX MO

WV

MN AZ

TN MT

KY AK UT ID

NM LA RI

WY

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

13.3%

10.7%

8.7%7.9% 7.5%

6.6% 6.1% 5.8% 5.1%4.3%

3.3%

Metric Dealers

States With Helmet LawStates Without Helmet Law

Page 16: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Saska

tchewan

British

Columbia

Prince

Edward

Islan

d

Nova Sc

otia

Alberta

New Brunsw

ick

Manito

ba

Ontario

NW Te

rrito

ries

Newfoundland/La

brador

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

4.3% 4.2%

3.1% 3.0%2.8% 2.6%

2.2%

1.7%

1.2%

0.7%

Helmet and Helmet Accessories as % of Total PG&A Sales, Canada117 dealers by Canadian Province, Jan-Sep 2012

$213k CAD in Helmet Sales, $8m CAD Total Parts Dept Sales

Page 17: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Harley Davidson 64%

Tucker Rocky 12%

Parts Unlimited 11%

Western Power Sports 6%

Fox Racing 3%

Helmet House 1%

Sullivans 1%

Castle Sales Company Inc 0%

Other1%

Motorcycle Helmet Sales by Supplier212 V-Twin Dealers: 27,893 units, $3.2m in Sales

Page 18: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Tucker Rocky 36%

Parts Unlimited 22%

Western Power Sports

18%

Fox Racing 8%

Sullivans 5%

Helmet House 3%

Ducati 2%

Castle Sales Company Inc 1%

BMW 1% Ski Doo Us

1%

Sea Doo Water Us 1% Other

3%

Motorcycle Helmet Sales by Supplier1,136 Metric Dealers: 211,211 units, $21.7m in Sales

Page 19: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Parts Canada/Power Twins 58%

Sea Doo Water Us 9%

Ski Doo Us 8%

Kimpex 5%

BMW 4%

Gamma Sales 3%

Motovan Mo-tosports Inc

2%

Sea Doo Atv 2%

Other9%

Motorcycle Helmet SalesSuppliers by Percent of Sales

85 Canadian Dealers; 1,633 units sold; $217,000 cad

Page 20: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Month

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

9%

7%

6%

5%

8%

5%

6%

11%

10%

10%

9%

7%

7%

Motorcycle Helmet and Helmet Accessories Sales % by MonthAugust 2011 to August 2012

1,420 Dealers, $36.5m in Sales, All Dealer Types Combined

Page 21: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Motorcycle Helmet Sales% of Helmets Sold at Price Range

Jan 2012 to Aug 20121,420 Dealers: 307,000 unit sales, All Dealer Types Combined

$20 to $5020%

$50 to $10035%

$100 to $20034%

$200 to $3006%

$300 to $4002%

$400 to $5001%

over $5001%

Page 22: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

79 Month history of Motorcycle Same Store Sales580 Dealers, Jan 2006 to Sep 2012

Jan-

07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7

Sep-

07

Nov

-07

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-

08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-

09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep-

12

0.2

20.2

40.2

60.2

80.2

100.2

120.2

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

108%

52%

89%

ConsumerConfidence

Total Store

Cons

umer

Con

fiden

ce L

evel

Tota

l Sto

re S

ales

as

% o

f 200

6

Correlation Factor between Total Store Sales and Consumer Confidence Level = .64 (somewhat high)

Historic High Level of Sales100% of year 2006 7 Month period of Decline

Current Sustained Low Level of Sales65% of year 2006

Page 23: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

1519 Motorcycle Dealers New Units In Stock at Oct 2012

Page 24: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

1519 Motorcycle Dealers New Units in Stock at Oct 2012 Aged by Year

Page 25: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Presented byHal Ethington

Hal.ethington @adp.com

Page 26: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

Presented by

Noel LaisSpader Business Management

Dealer Metrics October 2012

Powersports

Page 27: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Fulfilling. Success.

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

Fulfilling. Success.Net Profit % of Sales

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5N

et P

rofi

t %

of

Sal

es

Page 28: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Fulfilling. Success.

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5N

et P

rofi

t %

of

Sal

es

© 2011 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

Net Profit % of Sales

Page 29: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Fulfilling. Success.

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2011 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

Net Profit % of Sales

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

1

2

3

4

5

6N

et P

rofi

t %

of

Sal

es

Page 30: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Fulfilling. Success.

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000A

nn

ual

Sal

esNew Powersport Sales

Page 31: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Fulfilling. Success.

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

New Powersport

Sales

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

An

nu

al S

ales

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

New Powersport Inventories

Page 32: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Fulfilling. Success.

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

New Powersport Inventories

New Powersport

Sales2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

An

nu

al S

ales

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201111.2%

11.4%

11.6%

11.8%

12.0%

12.2%

12.4%

12.6%

Ave

rag

e G

ross

Pro

fit

%

New Powersport

Gross Margins© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

Page 33: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Fulfilling. Success.

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

2012 Total Sales Forecast

2011 Actual Year-end June 2012 Forecast July 2012 Forecast August 2012 Forecast Preliminary September 2012 Forecast

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

$12,000,000

Page 34: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Fulfilling. Success.

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

2012 Net Profit Forecast

2011 Actual Year-end June 2012 Forecast July 2012 Forecast August 2012 Forecast September 2012 Forecast

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Page 35: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Fulfilling. Success.

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

New Powersports Inventory2012 to 2011 Comparison

New Powersport Inventories$1,700,000

$1,750,000

$1,800,000

$1,850,000

$1,900,000

$1,950,000

$2,000,000

$2,050,000

$2,100,000

$2,150,000

YTD Sept 2012

YTD Sept 2011

Page 36: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

Fulfilling. Success.

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

Used Powersports Inventory2012 to 2011 Comparison

Used Powersport Inventories$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

YTD Sept 2012

YTD Sept 2011

Page 37: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 Spader Business Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

Powersports

Noel Lais [email protected]

Spader Business Management800.772.3377

www.spader.com

Thank You!

Page 38: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 39

• New & Used Motorcycle Registrations

• 2011 vs 2012 YTD trend

• Compiled Monthly

Polk New vs. Used Transactions

Page 39: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 40

All Motorcycles

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

ALL MOTORCYCLES

NEW '11 USED '11 NEW '12 USED '12

Page 40: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 41

On-Hwy Trend

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC -

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

ON-HWY

NEW '11 USED '11 NEW '12 USED '12

Page 41: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 42

ATV Trend

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

ATV

NEW '11 USED '11 NEW '12 USED '12

Page 42: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 43

Off-Hwy Trend

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

OFF-HWY

NEW '11 USED '11 NEW '12 USED '12

Page 43: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 44

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC -

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

SCOOTER

NEW '11 USED '11 NEW '12 USED '12

Page 44: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 45

Dual Purpose Trend

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC -

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

DUAL

NEW '11 USED '11 NEW '12 USED '12

Page 45: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 46

Top 10 Models by Category

• New Motorcycle Registrations

• Report Months: 201106-201205

• Top 10 US Make Series

Page 46: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 47

Top 10 Models by Category – On Hwy

Category Rank Make Series Total

ON HIGHWAY 1 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHX 25,262

2 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLTHTK 13,935

3 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLSTC 9,401

4 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHTCU 8,410

5 KAWASAKI EX250-J 7,858

6 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHTCUTG 6,451

7 HONDA GL1800 5,729

8 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLTRX 5,685

9 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLTRU 4,859

10 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FXDWG 4,463

Total 92,053

Page 47: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 48

Top 10 Models by Category – Off-Hwy

Category Rank Make Series Total

OFF HIGHWAY 1 HONDA CRF50F 2,113

2 HONDA CRF450R 1,802

3 YAMAHA YZ450F 1,634

4 YAMAHA TT-R110E 1,431

5 KAWASAKI KX450-A 1,384

6 HONDA CRF250R 1,326

7 YAMAHA YZ250F 1,307

8 HONDA CRF70F 1,284

9 HONDA CRF450X (CANADA) 1,269

10 HONDA CRF100F (CANADA) 1,027

Total 14,577

Page 48: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 49

Top 10 Models by Category - Dual

Category Rank Make Series Total

DUAL 1 KAWASAKI KL650-E 2,550

2 SUZUKI DR-Z400S 1,442

3 SUZUKI DR650SE 1,362

4 BMW R1200 GS 1,198

5 BMW R1200 GS ADVENTURE 1,172

6 YAMAHA XT250 1,102

7 KAWASAKI KLX250T 1,020

8 KTM 530EXC CHAMPIONS 1,008

9 BMW F800GS 819

10 YAMAHA WR250R 742

Total 12,415

Page 49: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 50

Top 10 Models by Category - Scooter

Category Rank Make Series Total

SCOOTER 1 HONDA NPS50 3,589

2 YAMAHA YW50 2,436

3 YAMAHA YW125 2,402

4 HONDA NHX110WH 1,947

5 VESPA GTS300 SUPER 1,501

6 HONDA PCX125 1,481

7 HONDA CHF50S 1,403

8 VESPA LX150 1,348

9 VESPA LX150IE 1,197

10 YAMAHA XC125V 1,162

Total 18,466

Page 50: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 51

Top 10 Models by Category - ATV

Category Rank Make Series TotalATV 1 POLARIS RANGER 800 XP 9,603 2 POLARIS SPORTSMAN 500 H.O. 8,239 3 POLARIS RANGER RZR 900XP 6,004 4 POLARIS RANGER RZR 5,928 5 HONDA TRX420FM 5,658 6 POLARIS RANGER 500 EFI 5,072 7 POLARIS RANGER XP800 EPS 4,974 8 HONDA TRX500FM 4,361 9 POLARIS RANGER CREW 800 EPS 3,856 10 HONDA TRX420FE 3,714Total 57,409

Page 51: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 52

Polk Motorcycle NVPP – National Vehicle Population Profile

• “Snapshot” of all registered vehicles on the road in the US

• Compiled annually

• Current total is 10 million vehicles

Page 52: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 53

Where do we see most of the Top On Hwy model, the Harley FLHX, Registered?

TOP 10 DMAs NVPP TOTAL COUNT

CHICAGO 3,021

BOSTON MANCHSTR 2,857

NEW YORK 2,729

LOS ANGELES 2,275

MINNEAPLS ST PL 1,945

PHILADELPHIA 1,887

MILWAUKEE 1,855

HOUSTON 1,839

DALLAS FT WORTH 1,832

ATLANTA 1,657

Page 53: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 54

Where do we see most of the Top Dual Purpose model, the Kawasaki KL650 E, Registered?

TOP 10 DMAs NVPP TOTAL COUNT

DENVER 760

SEATTLE TACOMA 717

LOS ANGELES 647

PORTLAND OR. 542

NEW YORK 516

SAN FRAN OAKLAN 394

SALT LAKE CITY 368

SACRMNTO STK MD 352

ATLANTA 342

ALBUQUERQUE SAN 286

Page 54: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 55

Motorcycle NVPP – Top 10 Registered Models

Make Name Model Total Count

HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHTCUI 161,630

HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLSTC 147,393

HARLEY-DAVIDSON XL1200C 127,412

HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLSTF 111,266

HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHRCI 104,481

HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHX 93,455

HONDA GL1800 88,851

HARLEY-DAVIDSON FXDWG 77,427

YAMAHA XVS65/XVS65A 77,169

HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLSTCI 73,160

Page 55: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 56

Motorcycle NVPP – On Highway Category, Top 20 DMAs

Top 10 DMAs Total Count

NEW YORK 244,160

LOS ANGELES 242,552

CHICAGO 180,600

PHILADELPHIA 155,870

BOSTON MANCHSTR 147,027

MINNEAPLS ST PL 137,702

SAN FRAN OAKLAN 130,781

SEATTLE TACOMA 117,893

ATLANTA 110,653

DALLAS FT WORTH 106,139

Page 56: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 57

Motorcycle NVPP – On Highway Category, Top 20 DMAs (Cont.)

DMA Total Count

WASH DC HAGRSTW 105,548

DENVER 103,530

SACRMNTO STK MD 103,095

CLEV AKRON CANT 100,335

DETROIT 97,505

ORLANDO DAYTONA 91,185

HOUSTON 85,563

MILWAUKEE 84,100

PITTSBURGH 83,607

TAMPA ST PETE 83,274

Page 57: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. 58

Orlando vs. Seattle Variations in the Mix of Top Models

ORLANDO DMA SEATTLE DMAMake Name Model Total Count Make Name Model Total Count HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHTCUI 2,346 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLSTC 2,536HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLSTC 2,141 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHTCUI 2,149HARLEY-DAVIDSON XL1200C 1,650 HARLEY-DAVIDSON XL1200C 1,970HONDA GL1800 1,636 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHRCI 1,968HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHX 1,600 YAMAHA YZF-R6L 1,578HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLSTF 1,586 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLSTF 1,526YAMAHA XVS65/XVS65A 1,240 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHX 1,446HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHRCI 1,179 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHR 1,424HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHR 1,149 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLSTCI 1,424SUZUKI GSX1300R 1,100 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FXDWG 1,260HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHT CLASSIC 1,071 HONDA GL1800 1,244HARLEY-DAVIDSON FXDWG 1,039 HONDA CBR600RR 1,142YAMAHA YZF-R6L 997 YAMAHA YZFR1 1,111HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLSTCI 968 HONDA CMX250C 1,038SUZUKI GSX-R1000 943 YAMAHA XVS65/XVS65A 1,008YAMAHA XVS1100/A 938 HARLEY-DAVIDSON FLHRI 948SUZUKI VL800 900 HONDA VT1100C 922YAMAHA YZFR1 890 YAMAHA XVS1100/A 899HONDA CBR600RR 860 SUZUKI SV650 889SUZUKI GSX-R600 815 SUZUKI GSX-R600 883

Page 58: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

59© 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential.

Thank you!

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Phone: 248.728.7739

Email: [email protected]

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Phone: 562.505.0287

Email: [email protected]

For more information please visit:

www.polk.comAny use of this material including reproduction, modification, distribution or republication without the prior written consent of R. L. Polk & Co. is strictly prohibited.

Page 59: October 16, 2012 State of the Industry. Today’s agenda Dave McMahon, Senior Editor, Powersports Business Jim Woodruff, Chief Operating Officer, National

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