Oregon Hoffman Poll - Presidential Primary 4-28-16

8/17/2019 Oregon Hoffman Poll - Presidential Primary 4-28-16

1/15

The Hoffman Research Group A Division of Gateway Communications Inc.

On Tuesday April 26th and Wednesday April 27th, The Hoffman Research Groupsurveyed a cross section of Oregon Republican voters to ascertain their preferences in the2016 Presidential Primary Election.

The survey is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 555 randomly chosen

likely Oregon Republican Primary voters. Attention was given to Oregon’s rural and urbandivide within seven geographic regions. The survey also maintained appropriate balanceswith regard to age, gender and vote propensity.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.16 at a 95% confidence level.

Headquartered in Portland, OR, The Hoffman Research Group, a division of GatewayCommunications Inc., has conducted hundreds of political tracking surveys and marketresearch projects since 1984.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

For more information, please contact Tim Nashif, CEO of Gateway Communications, Inc.503-257-0100 • [email protected]


2/15


Image Question Language: “I’m going to read the names of three public figures

and ask you to tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. If

you have no impression or have never heard of the person that’s okay, just say so.”

Table 1. John Kasich Image

34% Favorable

25% Unfavorable

24% No Impression

17% Never Heard Of

Table 2. Ted Cruz Image

42% Favorable

37% Unfavorable

19% No Impression

2% Never Heard Of

Table 3. Donald Trump Image

49% Favorable

40% Unfavorable

11% No Impression

0% Never Heard Of

OREGON

STATEWIDE TRACKING SURVEY

CONDUCTED APRIL 26-27, 2016

TOPLINE REPORT[N=555]


3/15


Table 4. If the Republican Primary Election for President of the United

States were held today, would you vote for John Kasich, Ted Cruz,

or Donald Trump?

17% John Kasich

26% Ted Cruz

43% Donald Trump

13% Undecided (Option not read initially)

(IF CANDIDATE CHOSEN ON BALLOT QUESTION 4)

Table 5a. Is there a chance you could change your mind?

Overall

36% Yes

64% No

John Kasich

49% Yes

51% No

Ted Cruz

49% Yes

51% No

Donald Trump

24% Yes

76% No

(IF ‘UNDECIDED’ CHOSEN ON BALLOT QUESTION 4)

Table 5b. If you absolutely had to choose today, would you vote for John

Kasich, Ted Cruz, or Donald Trump? (n=67)

18% John Kasich

15% Ted Cruz25% Donald Trump

42% Still Undecided (Option not read initially)

Topline Report (Cont’d)


4/15


Demographic Information:

Table 6. Respondent Age

12% 18-34

38% 35-54

50% 55+

Table 7. Respondent Gender

48% Male

52% Female

Table 8. Voting History

1% New6% 1 of 4

16% 2 of 4

29% 3 of 4

47% 4 of 4

Table 9. Oregon Region

8% Multnomah

10% Clackamas

12% Washington

26% Mid

7% Coast

18% Southern

19% Eastern

Topline Report (Cont’d)


5/15


Cross-Tabulations


6/15


TABLE 1 - JOHN KASICH IMAGE

KASICH IMAGE

Favorable Unfavorable

No

Impression

Never

Heard Of Total

TOTALCRUZ IMAGE Favorable

Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of

TRUMP IMAGE Favorable

Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of

PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT John Kasich

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Undecided

COULD CHANGE MIND Yes (Soft Support)

No (Firm Support)

BALLOT LEAN John Kasich

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Still Undecided

AGE 18-34

35-54

55+

GENDER Male

Female

AGE BY GENDER Young Male

Young Feml

Older Male

Older Feml

VOTING PROPENSITY 1 of 4

2 of 4

3 of 4

4 of 4

New

STATE REGION Multnomah

Clackamas

Washington

Mid

Coast

Southern

Eastern

34% 25% 24% 17% 55544% 17% 23% 16% 230

30% 44% 21% 5% 205

22% 7% 35% 36% 103

9% 0% 9% 82% 11

28% 38% 21% 13% 273

46% 11% 24% 19% 220

24% 12% 40% 24% 58

0% 0% 0% 100% 1

85% 2% 7% 5% 94

28% 20% 33% 19% 146

21% 41% 24% 14% 241

27% 11% 27% 35% 74

45% 12% 26% 17% 171

30% 36% 22% 12% 302

42% 8% 17% 33% 12

10% 0% 40% 50% 10

29% 18% 29% 24% 17

32% 11% 25% 32% 28

28% 25% 25% 23% 65

27% 23% 31% 19% 212

41% 26% 19% 14% 278

34% 29% 24% 12% 266

35% 20% 24% 21% 289

26% 42% 19% 13% 31

29% 9% 29% 32% 34

35% 28% 25% 12% 235

35% 22% 23% 20% 255

22% 28% 39% 11% 36

35% 19% 23% 23% 91

29% 27% 29% 15% 163

40% 25% 19% 16% 261

0% 25% 75% 0% 4

43% 15% 28% 13% 46

45% 17% 22% 16% 58

41% 25% 17% 17% 64

34% 22% 29% 14% 145

22% 44% 22% 12% 41

36% 31% 20% 13% 98

24% 23% 25% 27% 103

HOFFMAN RESEARCH GROUP: A Division of Gateway Communications Inc.

Conducted April 26-27, 2016

Republican, Likely Voters

State of Oregon


7/15


TABLE 2 - TED CRUZ IMAGE

CRUZ IMAGE


No

Impression

Never

Heard Of Total

TOTALKASICH IMAGE Favorable

Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Undecided


No (Firm Support)


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Still Undecided

AGE 18-34

35-54

55+

GENDER Male

Female


Young Feml

Older Male

Older Feml


2 of 4

3 of 4

4 of 4

New


Clackamas

Washington

Mid

Coast

Southern

Eastern

42% 37% 19% 2% 54954% 33% 12% 1% 188

29% 66% 5% 0% 137

39% 33% 27% 1% 132

39% 11% 40% 10% 92

35% 49% 13% 2% 271

53% 25% 20% 2% 217

33% 26% 38% 3% 58

0% 0% 100% 0% 1

27% 46% 24% 2% 91

87% 3% 10% 0% 145

20% 61% 17% 2% 240

42% 18% 34% 5% 73

54% 25% 20% 1% 167

36% 49% 13% 2% 301

25% 42% 25% 8% 12

50% 0% 50% 0% 10

47% 24% 24% 6% 17

52% 11% 33% 4% 27

43% 35% 17% 5% 65

41% 38% 19% 2% 211

42% 37% 19% 1% 273

39% 44% 15% 2% 261

45% 31% 22% 2% 288

35% 45% 13% 6% 31

50% 26% 21% 3% 34

39% 44% 15% 1% 230

44% 31% 22% 2% 254

33% 44% 19% 3% 36

39% 38% 20% 3% 90

42% 34% 22% 2% 160

44% 39% 16% 2% 259

50% 25% 25% 0% 4

33% 39% 28% 0% 46

52% 31% 16% 2% 58

28% 38% 31% 3% 64

52% 34% 13% 1% 141

32% 52% 12% 2% 40

45% 42% 11% 1% 97

36% 34% 25% 5% 103




State of Oregon


8/15


TABLE 3 - DONALD TRUMP IMAGE

TRUMP IMAGE


No

Impression

Never

Heard Of Total


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of

CRUZ IMAGE Favorable

Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Undecided


No (Firm Support)


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Still Undecided

AGE 18-34

35-54

55+

GENDER Male

Female


Young Feml

Older Male

Older Feml


2 of 4

3 of 4

4 of 4

New


Clackamas

Washington

Mid

Coast

Southern

Eastern

49% 40% 11% 0% 55240% 53% 7% 0% 191

76% 18% 5% 0% 136

43% 40% 17% 0% 134

38% 45% 15% 1% 91

42% 50% 8% 0% 229

66% 27% 7% 0% 204

35% 43% 21% 1% 103

45% 36% 18% 0% 11

6% 86% 8% 0% 93

17% 68% 15% 0% 146

90% 3% 7% 0% 240

37% 47% 16% 0% 73

38% 46% 15% 0% 170

59% 35% 6% 0% 301

8% 92% 0% 0% 12

11% 78% 11% 0% 9

53% 18% 29% 0% 17

54% 29% 18% 0% 28

40% 51% 9% 0% 65

48% 37% 15% 0% 210

53% 39% 8% 0% 277

61% 31% 9% 0% 264

39% 48% 12% 0% 288

48% 45% 6% 0% 31

32% 56% 12% 0% 34

62% 29% 9% 0% 233

40% 47% 12% 0% 254

58% 19% 22% 0% 36

48% 38% 13% 1% 90

52% 40% 9% 0% 162

47% 43% 9% 0% 260

50% 50% 0% 0% 4

48% 41% 11% 0% 46

34% 53% 12% 0% 58

38% 52% 9% 2% 64

42% 48% 10% 0% 145

60% 30% 10% 0% 40

62% 30% 8% 0% 97

61% 26% 13% 0% 102




State of Oregon


9/15


TABLE 4 - IF THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

WERE HELD TODAY, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR JOHN KASICH, TED CRUZ, OR DONALD TRUMP?

PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT

John Kasich Ted Cruz

Donald

Trump Undecided Total

TOTAL

KASICH IMAGE Favorable

Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


No (Firm Support)


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Still Undecided

AGE 18-34

35-54

55+

GENDER Male

Female


Young Feml

Older Male

Older Feml


2 of 4

3 of 4

4 of 4

NewSTATE REGION Multnomah

Clackamas

Washington

Mid

Coast

Southern

Eastern

17% 26% 43% 13% 555

42% 21% 26% 10% 191

1% 21% 72% 6% 137

5% 36% 44% 15% 134

5% 30% 37% 28% 93

11% 55% 21% 13% 230

20% 2% 71% 6% 205

21% 15% 40% 24% 103

18% 0% 45% 36% 11

2% 9% 79% 10% 273

36% 45% 3% 15% 220

12% 38% 29% 21% 58

0% 0% 100% 0% 1

26% 41% 33% 0% 171

16% 25% 60% 0% 302

0% 0% 0% 100% 12

0% 0% 0% 100% 10

0% 0% 0% 100% 17

0% 0% 0% 100% 28

17% 40% 31% 12% 65

14% 29% 46% 11% 212

19% 21% 45% 15% 278

17% 22% 53% 8% 266

17% 30% 34% 18% 289

16% 29% 45% 10% 31

18% 50% 18% 15% 34

17% 21% 54% 8% 235

17% 28% 36% 19% 255

14% 14% 67% 6% 36

16% 27% 35% 21% 91

14% 28% 46% 12% 163

20% 26% 41% 13% 261

0% 50% 50% 0% 422% 24% 43% 11% 46

24% 31% 29% 16% 58

31% 17% 33% 19% 64

15% 34% 37% 13% 145

15% 22% 59% 5% 41

13% 24% 52% 10% 98

9% 22% 52% 17% 103




State of Oregon


10/15


(IF CANDIDATE CHOSEN ON BALLOT QUESTION)

TABLE 5a - IS THERE A CHANCE YOU COULD CHANGE YOUR MIND?

COULD CHANGE MIND

Yes No Total

TOTAL


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Undecided

AGE 18-34

35-54

55+

GENDER MaleFemale


Young Feml

Older Male

Older Feml


2 of 4

3 of 4

4 of 4

New


Clackamas

Washington

Mid

Coast

Southern

Eastern

36% 64% 473

46% 54% 168

16% 84% 128

41% 59% 111

44% 56% 66

46% 54% 199

22% 78% 189

45% 55% 73

29% 71% 7

27% 73% 244

43% 57% 184

60% 40% 43

0% 0% 0

49% 51% 92

49% 51% 144

24% 76% 237

0% 0% 0

39% 61% 57

39% 61% 186

33% 67% 230

35% 65% 24237% 63% 231

32% 68% 28

45% 55% 29

36% 64% 214

36% 64% 202

33% 67% 33

43% 57% 70

35% 65% 142

36% 64% 224

25% 75% 4

30% 70% 40

47% 53% 49

36% 64% 50

34% 66% 125

28% 72% 39

44% 56% 86

32% 68% 84




State of Oregon


11/15


(IF UNDECIDED CHOSEN ON BALLOT QUESTION)

TABLE 5b - IF YOU ABSOLUTELY HAD TO CHOOSE TODAY, WOULD YOU

VOTE FOR JOHN KASICH, TED CRUZ, OR DONALD TRUMP?

BALLOT LEAN

John Kasich Ted Cruz

Donald

Trump

Still

Undecided Total

TOTAL


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No ImpressionNever Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of

AGE 18-34

35-54

55+

GENDER Male

Female


Young Feml

Older Male

Older Feml


2 of 4

3 of 4

4 of 4

New


Clackamas

Washington

Mid

Coast

Southern

Eastern

18% 15% 25% 42% 67

25% 5% 25% 45% 20

14% 0% 43% 43% 7

11% 22% 28% 39% 18

18% 23% 18% 41% 22

10% 17% 27% 47% 30

42% 0% 33% 25% 12

14% 24% 19% 43% 2133% 0% 33% 33% 3

4% 4% 35% 58% 26

38% 24% 10% 28% 29

0% 9% 45% 45% 11

0% 0% 0% 0% 0

25% 0% 12% 62% 8

20% 20% 30% 30% 20

15% 15% 26% 44% 39

11% 6% 33% 50% 18

20% 18% 22% 39% 49

0% 0% 33% 67% 3

40% 0% 0% 60% 5

13% 7% 33% 47% 15

18% 20% 25% 36% 44

0% 0% 100% 0% 1

28% 11% 28% 33% 18

15% 20% 15% 50% 20

14% 14% 29% 43% 28

0% 0% 0% 0% 0

20% 0% 0% 80% 5

29% 29% 29% 14% 7

0% 11% 33% 56% 9

21% 21% 21% 37% 19

0% 0% 50% 50% 2

33% 0% 33% 33% 9

12% 19% 25% 44% 16




State of Oregon


12/15


TABLE 6 - RESPONDENT AGE

AGE

18-34 35-54 55+ Total


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


UnfavorableNo Impression

Never Heard Of


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Undecided


No (Firm Support)


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Still Undecided

GENDER Male

Female


2 of 4

3 of 4

4 of 4

New


Clackamas

Washington

Mid

Coast

Southern

Eastern

12% 38% 50% 5559% 30% 60% 191

12% 36% 53% 137

12% 49% 40% 134

16% 43% 41% 93

12% 37% 50% 230

11% 39% 50% 205

11% 40% 50% 103

27% 36% 36% 11

10% 37% 53% 273

15% 35% 50% 22010% 53% 36% 58

0% 0% 100% 1

12% 32% 56% 94

18% 42% 40% 146

8% 40% 51% 241

11% 32% 57% 74

13% 42% 45% 171

12% 38% 51% 302

17% 33% 50% 12

0% 40% 60% 10

6% 35% 59% 17

18% 21% 61% 28

12% 38% 51% 266

12% 39% 49% 289

3% 67% 31% 36

15% 47% 37% 91

16% 41% 43% 163

9% 29% 62% 261

25% 75% 0% 4

11% 28% 61% 46

10% 43% 47% 58

12% 36% 52% 64

10% 39% 51% 145

17% 34% 49% 41

12% 43% 45% 98

12% 38% 50% 103




State of Oregon


13/15


TABLE 7 - RESPONDENT GENDER

GENDER

Male Female Total

TOTAL


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Undecided


No (Firm Support)


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Still Undecided

AGE 18-34

35-54

55+


2 of 4

3 of 4

4 of 4

New

STATE REGION MultnomahClackamas

Washington

Mid

Coast

Southern

Eastern

48% 52% 555

48% 52% 191

57% 43% 137

49% 51% 134

34% 66% 93

44% 56% 230

57% 43% 205

38% 62% 103

45% 55% 11

59% 41% 273

37% 63% 220

40% 60% 58

0% 100% 1

48% 52% 94

40% 60% 146

59% 41% 241

28% 72% 74

50% 50% 171

52% 48% 302

17% 83% 12

10% 90% 10

35% 65% 17

32% 68% 28

48% 52% 65

47% 53% 212

49% 51% 278

61% 39% 36

43% 57% 91

50% 50% 163

46% 54% 261

75% 25% 4

46% 54% 4648% 52% 58

48% 52% 64

45% 55% 145

51% 49% 41

52% 48% 98

48% 52% 103




State of Oregon


14/15


TABLE 8 - VOTING PROPENSITY

VOTING PROPENSITY

1 of 4 2 of 4 3 of 4 4 of 4 New Total

TOTAL


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No ImpressionNever Heard Of


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Undecided


No (Firm Support)


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Still Undecided

AGE 18-34

35-54

55+

GENDER Male

Female


Young Feml

Older Male

Older Feml


Clackamas

Washington

Mid

Coast

Southern

Eastern

6% 16% 29% 47% 1% 555

4% 17% 25% 54% 0% 191

7% 12% 32% 47% 1% 137

10% 16% 35% 37% 2% 134

4% 23% 27% 46% 0% 93

5% 15% 29% 50% 1% 230

8% 17% 26% 49% 0% 205

7% 17% 35% 40% 1% 103

9% 27% 27% 36% 0% 11

8% 16% 31% 45% 1% 273

3% 15% 29% 51% 1% 220

14% 21% 24% 41% 0% 580% 100% 0% 0% 0% 1

5% 16% 24% 54% 0% 94

3% 17% 31% 47% 1% 146

10% 13% 31% 45% 1% 241

3% 26% 27% 45% 0% 74

6% 18% 29% 47% 1% 171

7% 13% 31% 48% 1% 302

0% 42% 25% 33% 0% 12

0% 20% 40% 40% 0% 10

6% 29% 18% 47% 0% 17

0% 21% 36% 43% 0% 28

2% 22% 40% 35% 2% 65

11% 20% 32% 35% 1% 212

4% 12% 25% 59% 0% 278

8% 15% 30% 45% 1% 266

5% 18% 28% 48% 0% 289

3% 16% 45% 35% 0% 31

0% 26% 35% 35% 3% 34

9% 14% 29% 47% 1% 235

5% 17% 27% 50% 0% 255

2% 11% 35% 52% 0% 46

3% 24% 29% 41% 2% 58

2% 12% 31% 55% 0% 64

3% 19% 28% 49% 1% 145

10% 15% 37% 39% 0% 41

20% 18% 26% 35% 1% 98

4% 13% 28% 55% 0% 103




State of Oregon


15/15


TABLE 9 - OREGON STATE REGION

STATE REGION

Multnomah Clackamas Washington Mid Coast Southern Eastern Total

TOTAL


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Unfavorable

No Impression

Never Heard Of


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Undecided


No (Firm Support)


Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Still Undecided

AGE 18-34

35-54

55+

GENDER Male

Female


Young Feml

Older Male

Older Feml


2 of 4

3 of 4

4 of 4

New

8% 10% 12% 26% 7% 18% 19% 555

10% 14% 14% 26% 5% 18% 13% 191

5% 7% 12% 23% 13% 22% 18% 137

10% 10% 8% 31% 7% 15% 19% 134

6% 10% 12% 23% 5% 14% 30% 93

7% 13% 8% 32% 6% 19% 16% 230

9% 9% 12% 23% 10% 20% 17% 205

13% 9% 19% 18% 5% 11% 25% 103

0% 9% 18% 9% 9% 9% 45% 11

8% 7% 9% 22% 9% 22% 23% 273

9% 14% 15% 31% 5% 13% 12% 220

9% 12% 10% 26% 7% 14% 22% 58

0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1

11% 15% 21% 23% 6% 14% 10% 94

8% 12% 8% 34% 6% 16% 16% 146

8% 7% 9% 22% 10% 21% 22% 241

7% 12% 16% 26% 3% 14% 23% 74

7% 13% 11% 25% 6% 22% 16% 171

9% 9% 11% 27% 9% 16% 19% 302

8% 17% 0% 33% 0% 25% 17% 12

0% 20% 10% 40% 0% 0% 30% 10

0% 12% 18% 24% 6% 18% 24% 17

14% 4% 18% 25% 4% 11% 25% 28

8% 9% 12% 23% 11% 18% 18% 65

6% 12% 11% 26% 7% 20% 18% 212

10% 10% 12% 27% 7% 16% 19% 278

8% 11% 12% 24% 8% 19% 18% 266

9% 10% 11% 28% 7% 16% 19% 289

13% 6% 10% 23% 3% 26% 19% 31

3% 12% 15% 24% 18% 12% 18% 34

7% 11% 12% 25% 9% 18% 18% 235

9% 10% 11% 28% 5% 17% 19% 255

3% 6% 3% 11% 11% 56% 11% 36

5% 15% 9% 30% 7% 20% 14% 91

10% 10% 12% 25% 9% 15% 18% 163

9% 9% 13% 27% 6% 13% 22% 261

0% 25% 0% 50% 0% 25% 0% 4




State of Oregon

Documents

Oregon Hoffman Poll - Presidential Primary 4-28-16