Pac12PostData

8/2/2019 Pac12PostData

1/5

Since 2009 Pac12Wins Pac12ExpWins Difference

NCAA 14 9.95217803 4.04782197

NIT 11 11.06048535 -0.060485348

CBI 16 9.098412698 6.901587302

Total 41 30.11107608 10.88892392

Expected numbers are calculated as follows

NCAA - Used the all-time average wins by seed. Ex. 128 12 seeds h

59 games so they average .46 wins each. 2 Pac-12 12 seeds since 2

they are expected to win .92 games

NIT - No historical data so used average wins by seed of non pac12

Ex . 13 nonPac12 1 seeds have won 24 games or 1.85 wins per tea

12 1 seeds are expected to win 5.55 games

CBI - Same thing as NIT for 09/10. No seeding in 11/12 so used exp

winning percentage of home teams vs road teams. Ex 21 home ga

played by nonpac12 teams, 17 wins. 8 HG played by Pac 12 teams

Expected Win = .81*8 or 6.48


2/5

ave won

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Conclusion- Since 2009 the Pac10/12 has never received a seed higher than a

4. Over the past 4 years, across the 3 post season tournaments, the pac10/12

has significantly over performed the expectations set by their peers. The

validity of the performance in the NIT/CBI can be questioned, but the

performance in the NCAA tournament was also substantially better thanexpected. If the NCAA tournament committee is looking for the best 37 (aka

the 37 teams that are going to play the best basketball in March) teams to

populate its tournament, perhaps the Pac12 teams are better candidates than

some of their computer numbers suggest.

Granted, this is a small sample size & the expected number calculations are

somewhat questionable in some cases. Still, the differences are sizeable


3/5

2012

Seed NonPacTeams Wins Wins/Team Pac12Teams Wins Expected Wins

1 2 2 1 2 3 2

2 4 1 0.25 0 0 0

3 2 2 1 2 4 2

4 4 3 0.75 0 0 0

5 4 4 1 0 0 06 4 2 0.5 0 0 0

7 4 3 0.75 0 0 0

8 4 1 0.25 0 0 0

2011 0


1 4 9 2.25 0 0 0

2 3 3 1 1 3 1

3 4 2 0.5 0 0 0

4 3 8 2.66666667 1 1 2.666666667

5 4 0 0 0 0 0

6 4 3 0.75 0 0 0 Home

7 4 2 0.5 0 0 0 Road

8 4 0 0 0 0 0

2010 0


1 3 5 1.66666667 1 0 1.666666667

2 4 9 2.25 0 0 0

3 4 6 1.5 0 0 0

4 4 6 1.5 0 0 0

5 4 2 0.5 0 0 0

6 4 2 0.5 0 0 07 4 0 0 0 0 0

8 4 1 0.25 0 0 0

2009- (2009 results added in manually, only considered for relevant seeds)

Seed NonPacTeams Wins Wins/Team Pac12Teams Wins Expected Wins Wins-Expected

1 13 24 1.84615385 3 3 5.538461538 -2.538461538

2 15 24 1.6 1 3 1.6 1.4

3 14 15 1.07142857 2 4 2.142857143 1.857142857

4 15 22 1.46666667 1 1 1.466666667 -0.466666667

5 16 6 0.375 0 0 0 0

6 16 7 0.4375 0 0 0 0

7 16 5 0.3125 1 0 0.3125 -0.3125

8 16 2 0.125 0 0 0 0

11 11.06048535 -0.060485348


4/5

2012CBI

NonPac12Home Wins NPac12HG Win% PAC12HW Pac12HG Win%

6 9 67% 3 3 100%

Road Road Win% Road Road Win%

2 11 18% 1 1 100%

2011CBI

NonPac12Home Wins NPac12HG Win% PAC12HW Pac12HG Win%

11 12 92% 5 5 100%

Road Road Win% Road Road Win%

1 16 6% 0 1 0%

17 21 81% 8 8 100%

3 27 11% 1 2 50%

2009/2010 CBI NonPac10 Teams NonPac10Wins Expected Wins Pac10Teams Pac10Wins

1 Seeds 5 4 0.8 3 7

16

Since 2009 Pac12Wins Pac12ExpWins Difference

NCAA 14 9.95217803 4.047822NIT 11 11.06048535 -0.0604853

CBI 16 9.098412698 6.9015873

Total 41 30.11107608 10.888924


5/5

NCAAT Teams Wins Expected Wins Wins-Expected Expected

12 Seeds 2 2 0.921875 1.078125 0.460938

11 Seeds 3 3 1.5 1.5 0.5

10 Seeds 1 1 0.651515152 0.348484848 0.651515

8 Seeds 1 1 0.75 0.25 0.75

7 Seeds 3 2 2.477272727 -0.477272727 0.825758

6 Seeds 2 2 2.46969697 -0.46969697 1.2348485 Seeds 1 3 1.181818182 1.818181818 1.181818

13 14 9.95217803 4.04782197 5.604877

Expected Wins

Wins-Expected

6.476190476

0.222222222

6.698412698 1.523809524

0.777777778

Expectedpac10W 2.301587302

2.4

9.098412698 Wins-Expected

4.6

CBI Totals 6.901587302

Documents

Pac12PostData