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Part Ⅲ 证券投资 择时. Unit 7 投资环境与择时 Unit 8 技术分析与择时. Unit 7 投资环境与择时. 知识目标 1 ) 了解证券投资环境分析知识; 2 ) 理解证券投资环境变迁中的证券价值规律; 3 ) 掌握财政政策、货币政策和汇率政策环境的分析应用。 能力目标 1 ) 具备对过热经济环境下证券价格的分析能力; 2 ) 具备对偏冷经济环境下证券价格的分析能力; 3 ) 具备对金融环境造就证券投资机会的分析能力。. 训练项目 3 投资环境分析. 任务 3 - 1 货币环境分析 (任课教师指导学生自主选择时间段) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Part Unit 7 Unit 8
Unit 7 1 2 3 1 2 3
31 20062007102007 3
1. 300
2.
3.
32 20084
1. 300
2.
3.
33 1k2DDMS34
1. 2. 3. 4.
Unit 7.1 1.
1 2
3
2. 1
2 3 4
3. 1 2
4. 1
2
5. 1 1
2
2 3
6. 1
2
3
7. 1
2
1. P1701 GDP GDP GDP GDP3 1 2Unit 7.2
2
2. 1 GDP2 163
3. 1GDPGDP2GDP GDP3
4. P17812 1 2 3
5. 12 3
1
2 3
4 1
2 3
6. 12
3 1 2 3
4 1 2 3
7. 1 1 2
3 1 24 1 2
8. 1 1GDP GDP GDP 2
3
2 1
2 3 4
Unit 7.3 1. 1 2 1
2
3 1 2 3
4 1 2 3
5 1 2 3
2. 1 1 2 3
2 1WTO 2IMF
3 4
5
Unit 7.4 1. 1 50 23
2. 12345678
71 GDP2123456789
Unit 8 1 2 3 1 2 3
4 41 3991061993219947
36829234219433523528012916994.78
22K 30039930020095200910kKK
43 730120062009
441. 19999991994232. 23003993002008
1
2
45 300399300112369
46 300399300K921RSIRSI
8020
1. 2. 3. 4.
Unit 8 .1 1. 2. 3. 4.
Unit 8 .1.1 1. 1
2P213
2. 1 2
3
3.
123
Unit 8.1.2 1. 1 2
3
2. 1234
3. 1234. 12
Unit 8.1.3 1. 123
2. 1K23
3. 1MA2RSI3MACD4KD5BIAS
Unit 8.1.4 1. 123
4 1 2 3
2. 1234
3. 1 1 2 3
23
8[1]1212345678
Unit 8.2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Unit 8.2.1 1. Wave Principle1 1 2 8 353 4 32 RNEllitt1939
12345ABC2.
1 18 2 5123453 3ABC23353
abc123abc45ABC
Unit 8.2.21. 1 1 22 1 2
3 1 2 3 Extend wave4 1 2
5 1 2
2. 1A 1 2A
2B
1 B 2 B3C 1 C 2 C
Unit 8.2.3 1. 2. 1 5A25 35 9
3. 13513512345112245435
4. AC123451234512345
5. AAcab12345c
6.
1991234567899123456789
235C1234551234
7.
112345123451234123455
21234512345
Unit 8.2.4 1. 2. 122423BBB
3. ABCCAABCCA
4.
1ABCBACABACAABC
2 BACAABCABC
3 BACAABCABC
5. 4B
6. 1
2
abcxabcabcxabc
Unit 8.2.5 1.
15325 A3
2.
1 2 C
3 1 2 3 42 541
3. 12C
ABC12345
Unit 8.2.61. Fibonacci13 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 2. 1212350.61831.61842.61850.382
3. 0.382 0.5 0.618 0.819 1.00 1.618 2.618 4. 1
2 153 2 19932 200151993+8=2001 20062007.102001+5=2006
4. 1 368 94.75 10.3820.5 194.75+(36894.75) 0.5=232 2351.4% 210.6180.8191 223523594.75) 0.819=120 235(23594.75) 1=96 (120+96) 2=108 105
312.618 3105+(235-94.75) 2.618=474 520 430.3820.51 4520(520-105) 0.5=313 520(520-105) 0.382=362 1235 (235+313+362) 3=303 308 5411.618 5308+(520-308) 1.618=651 666
2 1 36894.75 2 0.3820.618 666 666-(666-105) 0.618=319 314.98 368
368B331A194C 9594.07.2912352102352043086175A565B666C366X523A378453BC 235.6405.07.19
BAC12345
ABC12345
8[2]1 212345C6789
Unit 8.3 1. K2. 3. 4.
Unit 8.3.1 KP2181. KK2. K12
1K
2K
3K
3. K1
ABC
2
3
4
4. K1 1
ABC
21234
2
3
4
5
6
7
Unit 8.3.2 P244
1. 1V
2
3
4
5
2. 1V
2
3
4
5
3. 1
2
3
4
5
Unit 8.3.3 P2281. 12
2. Trend Channel
12345
3. 1
2
3
Unit 8.3.4 1. 1KK K K2 3
2. 1 2
3
4
3. 1 2
3 4
4. 12 K3
8[3]1 K2112K2K3K456789
Unit 8.4 P2331. MA2. MACD3. RSI4. KD5. BIAS6.
Unit 8.4.1MA1.
NN
2. 1
Ci---MA=Ci N
2
MA=C11+C22+ +Cnn (1+2+3+ +n)MA=[(C1+C2) 1+(C2+C3) 2++(Cn-1+Cn)(n-1)] [21+22+ +2(n-1)MA=C112+C222+ +Cnn2 12+22+32+ n2)
3 MAEMA EMAt
4
Ct1+EMA(t-1) (n-1) nEMAt=Ct2+EMA(t-1) (n-1) n+1EMAt=
23bsbB69sbsbssbsS
3.
1 B
B
B
B
S
S S S
2 N a b
SSBB
Unit 8.4.2 MACD1. MACDMoving Average Convergence Divergence
2. MACD
1EMAnt-1(n-1)+Ct2 n+1EMAn=
2EMA12EMA26
EMA12=(EMA12t-111+Ct2)/13 EMA26=(EMA26t-125+Ct2)/27
3DIF
DIF=EMA12EMA26
4n=9DIFDEA
DEA9=(DEA9t-18+DIFt2)/10
5
=DIFDEA DIFDEAMACD
DIFDEAMACD0bsbsbsbSbsbs
3. MACD
1DIFDEA 0 0 DIFDEA2DIFDEA 0 0 DIFDEA3MACD4MACD
BS
S
Unit 8.4.3 RSI1. RSI Wells Wilder2. RSI1
NNRS=
2
N---81421
3RSI
4RSIRSIRSI0100RSI NN+NRSI=100
3. RSI1RSI RSI80 RSI20
2RSI RSIRSI RSI RSIRSIRSI RSI RSI
3RSI RSI RSI
4RSI
RSI RSI RSI
1008050200RSIbssbsbssbsbsb
BS
BS
Unit 8.4.4 KD1. KD
1KDStochastic
2KD
NKD
2. KD1NRSVRow stochastic value RSVCtCl/ChCl100 RSV--- Ct--- Ch---N Cl---N2KD3N RSVN 9KDN 3
3. KD
1
D>70 D
3KD
KD KD
4 KD KD
RSIKD 0~100RSIKD
Unit 8.4.5 BIAS1. BIAS
BIAS
2. BIAS
BIAS1MAn/Ct100
BIAS--- Man---nn Ct---
>0
8[4]1 MACDRSIKDBIAS.2123MACD4RSI5KD6KD7BIAS8BIAS