Persistence in High School and College

The Future of Children

April 30, 2010

Transition to AdulthoodEnd of Adolescence to Adult Independence

MacArthur Foundation Network on Adult Transitions and Public Policy

Connie Flanagan

Penn State University

The Changing Transition to Adulthood:

Pattern from Post WWII through 1960’s

• Markers of Status Attainment - Orderly Sequence

Complete educationFull time jobMarriage and Family

Second Half of the 20th Century

Longer Age 18?, 25?, 30?Less orderly sequenceLess differentiated by gender

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Males 1960 Males 2000 Females 1960 Females 2000

Percent completing all five transitions

Age 20

Age 25

Age 30

Completing the Adulthood Transition in 1960 and 2000Leaving home, finishing school, becoming financially independent, getting married and having a child

Furstenberg, et. al. in Contexts, Summer, 2004

Notes: Data are from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series extracts (IPUMS) of the 1960 and 2000 U.S. Censuses. Men are defined as financially independent if they are in the labor force; women who have completed all transition except employment in the labor force are considered financially independent.

9%

44%

65%

2%

13%

31%29%

68%

77%

6%

25%

46%

Changes in nature of work

• Less predictable - Career planning ?• For most – career ladder – outdated model

• Jobs – shorter tenure, part time, contract work, fewer benefits

• Between 1970’s – 1990’s Slow growth in median earnings Privatization of Risk Management Decline in employer provided health insurance

and pensions Individuals “on their own’ to manage uncertainty

Institutional and Policy Mismatch:Inequalities by Social Class, Race/Ethnicity

Policies Oriented – 18 year old = adult

Vulnerable Groups – Eligibility Cliff – Systems of CareFoster Care, Juvenile Justice, Mental Health, Disabilities

Default Institutions that Scaffold Young AdultsFAMILIES 40% youth return home at least once after leaving Inter-generational transfers of wealth

FOUR-YEAR RESIDENTIAL COLLEGES Orientation, Dormitories, Extracurricular and Student Activities, Health and Mental Health, Recreation, Career Guidance, Civic/Community Engagement, Mentoring

Trends in Europe and the U.S.Disconnected youth

2004 Kids Count Report

One in six 18 – 25 year olds:• No degree beyond high school• No job• Not enrolled in school

• A 19% increase over three prior years

Council of Europe -- Exploring the European Youth Mosaic

Significant proportions of young people aged 15 – 19• Not in education• Not in training• Not employed

Implications of TTA for Educational Persistence

New Norm –Some Education Beyond High School

Expected by Employers Necessary to attain well-paying job

Financial and Social Returns to Education

Unpredictable Labor MarketHedging bets – Multiple Credentials – Double/Triple MajorsRetraining, Retooling

9 – 16% of 16 – 24 year oldsNo high school completion Parallel Trends Past Few Decades

High-School Drop Out and Declines in Marriage

Second Chance Programs – Degree Completion, Incorporation of Disconnected Youth

Policy Issues

Bridging the Gap Demands of Labor Market – Educationally Unprepared

Community Colleges Access and Persistence; Innovations Pell Grants

Bridging the Gap – Haves and Have Nots Vulnerable or “At Risk” Groups 2008 – Fostering Connections Act Coordination Across Systems vs. Compartmentalizing Training of Professionals -Young Adults with Disabilities Raising Minimum Wage and Extending EITC

New Institutional Forms Civic/Community Engagement – Social Incorporation AmeriCorps; Conservation Corps; ChalleNGe; Youth Build Edward Kennedy Serve America Act

Education and the Civic Divide

Participate in community affairs at least once a month

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02

no college

college

Social Trust by Year and Cohort

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Year of Data Collection

Mea

n L

evel

of

Soci

al T

rust

Each line represents a cohort

Education and Democracy

I know of no safe repository of the ultimate powers of the society – but the people themselves.

And if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education.

Thomas Jefferson