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Platinum & PalladiumPlatinum & Palladium
Current viewsCurrent views
Peter RyanPeter RyanNew York, 20 September 2005New York, 20
September 2005
QQ JewelleryJewellery
QQ CarsCars
QQ SupplySupply
QQ StocksStocks
PGM jewelleryPGM jewellery ChinaChinaProxy: Hong Kong PGM
importsProxy: Hong Kong PGM imports
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005F
millionozs
$0
$300
$600
$900
Platinum Palladium Platinum US$
Platinum pricePlatinum price
JewelleryJewellery
QQ PlatinumPlatinum demand likely to fall again in 2005demand
likely to fall again in 2005
Further decline in China, ongoing erosion in JapanFurther
decline in China, ongoing erosion in Japan
2m2m ozsozs in 2004; could become 1.75min 2004; could become
1.75m ozsozs in 2005in 2005
QQ Why?Why?
Expensive for consumersExpensive for consumers
Only marginally profitable for manufacturersOnly marginally
profitable for manufacturers
Competing alternatives (gold, white gold &
palladium)Competing alternatives (gold, white gold &
palladium)
QQ PalladiumPalladium again the beneficiaryagain the
beneficiary
Palladium jewellery; gaining ground in ChinaPalladium jewellery;
gaining ground in China
0.7m0.7m ozsozs in 2004; should exceed 1min 2004; should exceed
1m ozsozs in 2005in 2005
Autocatalyst consumptionAutocatalyst consumption
(excluding purchases for inventory)(excluding purchases for
inventory)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
19 96 1 997 1 998 19 99 2 00 0 20 01 20 02 200 3 20 04
millionozs
Platinum Palladium
AutocatalystAutocatalyst
QQ Key drivers of PGM demandKey drivers of PGM demand
Emissions legislationEmissions legislation
Production of catalyst equipped vehiclesProduction of catalyst
equipped vehicles
Penetration of diesel engined vehicles (platinum)Penetration of
diesel engined vehicles (platinum)
Outlook for gasoline engined vehicles (mainly palladium)Outlook
for gasoline engined vehicles (mainly palladium)
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Global light vehicle productionGlobal light vehicle
production(autocatalyst equipped(autocatalyst equipped million
units)million units)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
China/India Japan/Korea USA/Canada
Europe South America Others Source: Global InsightsSource:
Global Insights
Global light vehicle productionGlobal light vehicle
productionMarket share: gasoline v. dieselMarket share: gasoline v.
diesel
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Diesel
Gasoline
Source: Global InsightsSource: Global Insights
Global light vehicle productionGlobal light vehicle
productionGasoline & diesel (million units)Gasoline &
diesel (million units)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Gasoline
Diesel
Source: Global InsightsSource: Global Insights
Vehicle production outlook supportive of bothVehicle production
outlook supportive of both
platinum (diesel)platinum (diesel) andandpalladium
(gasoline)palladium (gasoline)
QQ Platinums opportunityPlatinums opportunity
Diesel particulate filtersDiesel particulate filters
Diesel penetration in North AmericaDiesel penetration in North
America
QQ Palladiums opportunity:Palladiums opportunity:
Platinum 32% share of the gasoline marketPlatinum 32% share of
the gasoline market
Emerging technology for diesel autocatalystsEmerging technology
for diesel autocatalysts
Mine productionMine production
Platinum & palladium (millionPlatinum & palladium
(million ozsozs))
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1999 2002 2005 F 2008 F
Platinum Palladium
Autocatalyst scrap recyclingAutocatalyst scrap recycling
Platinum & palladium (millionPlatinum & palladium
(million ozsozs))
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1999 2002 2005 F 2008 F
Platinum Palladium
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Mine productionMine production ++ autocat recyclingautocat
recyclingPlatinum & palladium (millionPlatinum & palladium
(million ozsozs))
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.08.0
9.0
1999 2002 2005 F 2008 F
Platinum Palladium
OutlookOutlook
QQ Platinum: modest surplus in 2005; close to balancePlatinum:
modest surplus in 2005; close to balance
Surpluses expected to appear from 2006Surpluses expected to
appear from 2006 Increased supply 2004 v 2008 ~ 1.4mIncreased
supply 2004 v 2008 ~ 1.4m ozsozs
Represents 19% of total demand in 2004Represents 19% of total
demand in 2004
Represents almost 40% of 2004 autocatalyst demandRepresents
almost 40% of 2004 autocatalyst demand
QQ Palladium: further surplus expected in 2005 (~500kPalladium:
further surplus expected in 2005 (~500kozsozs))
Surplus should contract in 2006 (post Stillwater sales)Surplus
should contract in 2006 (post Stillwater sales)
Increased supply 2004 v 2008 ~ 1.6mIncreased supply 2004 v 2008
~ 1.6m ozsozs
Represents 21% of total demand in 2004Represents 21% of total
demand in 2004
Represents almost 36% of 2004 autocatalyst demandRepresents
almost 36% of 2004 autocatalyst demand
Switzerland: net importsSwitzerland: net importscumulative
change 1987 to 2004cumulative change 1987 to 2004
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
PlatinumPlatinum PalladiumPalladium
OuncesOunces -- millionsmillions
