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PMSP Portfolio Optimizer
What is PMSP?
DOS-based statistical analysis program Calculates correlation between securities
over a historical period Optimizes portfolios of securities based on
correlation and risk/reward statistics of portfolio as a whole
Can be used to evaluate performance of portfolios over a “test” period
Functions
Data (import and edit data) Setup (change parameters and options) Correl (calculate stock correlation) Optimize (create optimal portfolios) Eval (evaluate selected portfolios)
Definitions Lower Partial Moment
A measure of downside risk Average of squared errors of below-average returns
Skewness Whether data “leans” to one side of the mean Positive (right) skew → “Peak” of distribution to left of mean
Kurtosis A measure of the variance and the tendency of the data to
be near the mean (how high the peak of the distribution is) “Normal” kurtosis is 3 Higher kurtosis implies a “leptokurtic” distribution Lower kurtosis implies a “platykurtic” distribution
A Sample Run
Find Data
CRSP (via WRDS database) Need text file with PERM numbers for each
stock Download file with Monthly Returns (with or
without dividends) and Value Weighted Index Save as .dat file
Select Data File
Load data for selected period from CRSP database (.dat file format) Securities chosen must have existed during the entire historical
and/or evaluation period or data for analysis will be incomplete Should also include data for benchmark (ex. S&P 500) Data file must be in same folder as program
Confirm Data Info
Set Dates & Goals
Time periods are month numbers in set (ex. 1-60 for 5 years of data)
Risk tolerance = % of assets in equities
Select Stocks from Set Program only analyzes certain number of securities at once May have to change stocks analyzed to find low-correlation
securities to run in later steps “Select Active Set” under Edit Data; use security numbers to
add/remove security
Individual Stock Statistics
First screen when Correl selected Shows risk/return statistics for historical period Select second Correl button to see stock correlation
Correlation Table
Run Optimization
Once securities are selected and correlated by program
Different heuristics can be set to optimize and sort portfolios (under “Options”)
Optimization Results Can scroll to see other statistics using “Reports” and “Next” or
“Back” Can view individual portfolio statistics & holdings by selecting
“Individual”
Sample Portfolio
Alternative Optimization
Nawrocki LPM Heuristic Need a LPM limit (ex. 8.00) Evaluates securities by Return/LPM ratios
(higher ratios mean higher weights) May not return number of securities desired
due to differences in optimization
Heuristic Options
LPM Heuristic Optimization
Evaluate: Select Portfolios
Choose own criteria (i.e. Return/Semivariance ratio)
Limited number of portfolios can be evaluated at once
Must select using “Select” function in Optimize menu before using Eval
Evaluate: Select Portfolios
Run Eval
Multiple graph options or Final End Period Report
Eval: Good Choices?
Final Notes
Very memory intensive Needs to be in a “low-level” folder (don’t
place it in a directory 6 folders in) Graphs will cause full screen
Switch out using Alt + Tab Right click Task Bar tab and select Properties Change to Window under Display Options and
apply change