Mission Statement Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved prediction services for the

polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal. The Polar Prediction Project constitutes the hourly to seasonal research component of the Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS).

Photos: G. D

ieckmann, M

. Hoppm

ann, AWI, N

. Gordon

An international Steering Group representing both the research and operational communities. The 5th steering group meeting is scheduled for August 2014, in Montréal.

An International Coordination Office to provide support to planning and implementation of the project and to ensure collaboration with other programmes. Sponsored by

Establishment and exploitation of special research datasets that can be used by the wider research community and forecast product users.

An intensive observing and modelling effort to advance polar prediction. This activity, termed the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), is envisaged to take place from mid-2017 to mid–2019.

A series of science workshops on polar prediction, e..g. “Linkages Workshop, December 2014, Barcelona, Spain.

A strong educational component, which will be jointly implemented with the Association of Early Career Scientist (APECS), e.g Polar Prediction Summer School 2016, Abisko, Sweden.

Implementation

International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction | c/o Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Bremerhaven, GERMANY | http://polarprediction.net

Steering Group: Thomas Jung, Germany

Peter Bauer, UK David Bromwich, USA

Jonathan Day, UK Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Spain

Chris Fairall, USA Marika Holland, USA

Trond Iversen, Norway Pertti Nurmi, Finland

Brian Mills, Canada Phil Reid, Australia

Ian Renfrew, UK Gregory Smith, Canada

Gunilla Svensson, Sweden Mikhail Tolstykh, Russia

Administrative support: Neil Gordon, New Zealand

Stefanie Klebe, Germany

Research Goals

Service-oriented Research

Forecasting System Research

Understand and evaluate the use of enhanced prediction information and services in polar regions

Improve representation of key polar processes in (coupled) models of the atmosphere, land, ocean and cryosphere

Determine predictability and identify key sources of forecast errors in polar regions

Underpinning Research

Improve knowledge of two-way linkages between polar and lower latitudes, and their implications for global prediction

Establish and apply veri!cation methods appropriate for polar regions

Develop and exploit ensemble prediction systems with appropriate representation of initial and model uncertainty for

polar regions

Develop data assimilation systems that account for the unique characteristics of polar regions

Provide guidance on optimizing polar observing systems, and coordinate additional observations to support modelling and

veri!cation

2013 20152014 2016 2017 20212012 2018 2019 2020 2022

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