Basic Demography

Describe global population distribution Examine causes and consequences of

population change To understand the Malthusian argument To describe demographic and economic

characteristics of a population To understand the Demographic Transition To describe the baby boom Understanding economic migration

World population growth is slowing Still adding ca. 80 million per year Most in developing countries Some countries are losing population

(Russia, E. Europe, coming in Japan) Forces affecting population change ∆P = BR – DR + I – O or ∆P = NGR +NMR

Assumed that human populations would continue to grow geometrically

And assumed that food production would grow arithmetically, due to diminishing marginal returns (or less than arithmetically)

Inputs

Output

arithmetic

Diminishing returns

• Failed to see impact of Industrial Revolution on Food production• Failed to see the opening of new lands (especially in the new world)• Failed to anticipate falling fertility rates

Based on West European & N. Am. History

Stage 1: Preindustrial Society – high and unstable birth & death rates, population growth rate slow, importance of children, low life expectancy

Stage 2: Early Industrial Society - high birth rates, falling death rate, high population growth

Stage 3: Late Industrial Society – low death rate, falling birth rate, high population growth

Stage 4: Post Industrial Society – low birth and death rates, low population growth

Stage 1 – Poor Health Care Stage 2 – Lower infant mortality rates with

better diet and improvements in health care(Figure 3.18)

Stage 3 – similar to Stage 2 Stage 4 – Few deaths from infectious

diseases, more from social malaise (Figures 3.21 and 3.22). Some countries below ZPG

Fertility is socially constructed, not taken for granted

Population does not grow uncontrollably, but rather stabilizes at a slow growth rate as birth and death rates fall

However, absolute population growth is still large (ca. 80 million per annum) due to the large base (current 6+ billion)

Total future population depends on fertility rate trends in less developed regions (Figure 3.28)

Based on Western societies (Europe, North America, Japan)

Not inevitable that there will be a fall in fertility rates in less developed countries

Even with dramatically lowered fertility rates

We cannot predict the length of time it will take these countries to move from Stages 2 and 3 to Stage 4 (if they do)