1

Precourt Energy Efficiency Center (Formerly: Precourt Institute for Energy

Efficiency)

2

Precourt Energy Efficiency Center • Established October 2006

• Initial funding, from Jay Precourt:

– operating cost, building; faculty endowment (now with PIE)

• Subsequent Funding: EPA, ARPA–E, The Energy Foundation,

Richard and Rhona Goldman Fund, Chevron

• Mission

– Improve opportunities for and implementation of energy

efficient technologies, systems, and practices.

– Focus on use of energy, especially economically efficient

reductions in energy use

• Operations

– Grants to faculty/student teams throughout Stanford

– Conferences (Silicon Valley Energy Summit; Behavior,

Energy, and Climate Change)

– Internal Research

3

ARPA-E $2,533,000

Ford Fdn. Gift $100,000

Precourt Gift, $6,714,600

Energy Fdn. - AB32 Project, $75,000

Goldman Fdn. - AB32 Project, $48,000

EPA Project, $363,100 Tides Foundation

(For ARPA-E) $10,000

Chevron, $60,000

PEEC Income - Actual to March 2011 $9,904,000

4

• Environmental Protection

• Global Climate Change

• Security

• Oil/International vulnerability

• Vulnerability of infrastructure to terrorism, natural

disaster, or human error

• Economics

• Price volatility: can lead to macroeconomic dislocations

– particularly oil.

Each Issue can be addressed by

improvements in the efficiency of energy use

Drivers of Energy Policy

5

U.S. CO2 Emissions 2008

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html 5

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Residential Commerical Industrial Transportation

Mill

ion

Me

tric

To

ns

of

Car

bo

n D

ioxi

de

Through Electricity

Natural Gas

Petroleum

Coal

Gasoline

Distillate(Diesel)

Jet FuelMost:

Buildings

Some:

Buildings

21% 18%

27%

33%

6

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation

BillionsTotal US Expenditures on Energy Consumption (2007): $1.233 Trillion

Retail Electricity

Biomass

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Coal

2007 US GDP:$14 Trillion$14,000 Billion

About 3% of

GDP

Electricity includes non-primary energy costs of electric system

About 4%

of GDP

7

PEEC Research Matrix Sectors

Methods Buildings Transport-

ation

Electricity

System

Industry Economy

Wide

Engineering

Modeling

Systems

Behavior

Policy

Current Emphasis

Other Areas Covered

Greatest Current Emphasis

School of Humanities and Sciences

Communication Byron Reeves

Economics Nick Bloom

Lawrence Goulder

Matthew Harding

Aprajit Mahajan

Symbolic Systems Jeff Shrager (consulting professor)

Psychology Sam McClure

Greg Walton

School of Engineering

Civil and Environmental Engineering Martin Fischer

John Haymaker (just left Stanford)

Mark Jacobsen

John Kunz

Computer Science Scott Klemmer

Philip Levis

Andrew Ng

Electrical Engineering Balaji Prabhakar

Management Science and Engineering Sam Chiu

James Sweeney

John Weyant

Thomas Weber

Mechanical Engineering Banny Banerjee

Christopher Edwards

Kenneth Goodson

Gianluca Iaccarino

School of Education

Nicole Ardoin

Graduate School of Business

Erica Plambeck

John Roberts

School of Medicine

Health Research and Policy - Epidemiology Abby King

Pediatrics Thomas Robinson

9

Workshops/Conferences

Each Year

• Silicon Valley Energy Summit. Jointly with Silicon Valley Leadership Group

• Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change. Jointly with ACEEE, California

Institute for Energy and Environment

One-Off Conferences/Workshops

• Energy Efficiency Workshop, with Snowmass Workshop on Integrated

Assessment of Global Climate Change, July 2007

• Electricity Measurement and Feedback Workshop. Sept. 2008

• French Delegation Workshop. November 2010

• Making Electromobility Work, December 2010

• Conference Presentation Material on website: PEEC.stanford.edu

• Many Powerpoints

• Video of entire Silicon Valley Energy Summit

Silicon Valley Energy Summit

Annual Conference

• Jointly with Silicon Valley Leadership Group 590 registered in 2010

11

Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change

Annual Conference

• Jointly with American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, California

Institute for Energy and Environment

• Alternates between Sacramento and Washington DC

• 750 registered in 2010

12

Research Examples

• Deconstructing the Rosenfeld Curve

• AB 32 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

• ARPA-E Sensor and Behavior Initiative

• Infosys-Stanford Traffic Project

13

Deconstructing the Rosenfeld Curve

Anant Sudarshan

Department of Management Science and Engineering

&

James Sweeney

14

The Rosenfeld Curve: Per Capita Electricity Purchases

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

KWhr Per CapitaAnnual KWhr per Person Electricity Consumption

California

US

15

Year 2001 Decomposition

Heating Load, 340

Cooling Load, 332

Water Heating, 238

Household Size, 382

Urbanization, 321

Commercial Floorspace

1036

Industry Composition 1325

Self Generation, 258

Unexplained (Residential), 545

Unexplained (Industrial) 416

Unexplained (Commercial) 272

Household Income, -130

-400-400

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

3,600

4,000

4,400

4,800

5,200

5,600

6,000

KW

h p

er

cap

ita

16

Decomposition Over Time: Residential

California ActualCalifornia Actual California Actual

Heating, Cooling LoadHeating, Cooling Load Heating, Cooling Load

Water Heating Water Heating Water Heating

Income Income Income

Household SizeHousehold Size

Urbanization

Urbanization

Urbanization

Unexplained

Unexplained

Unexplained

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1980 1990 2001

17

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

GW

h

Residential and Commercial Cumulative Conservation Savings 1980 - 2006

Title 24

Building Standards

Title 20

Appliance Standards

Program, Price, and Market Effects

~19% of

Residential and

Commercial Electricity Use

in California in 2006

Source: Art Rosenfeld, California Energy Commission

18

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

196

0

196

2

19

64

196

6

196

8

197

0

197

2

197

4

197

6

197

8

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

19

94

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

kW

h/p

ers

on

Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)

(kWh/person)

United States

California

California w/out stds

and programs

Source: Art Rosenfeld, California Energy Commission

19

AB 32 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

AB 32 Team from PEEC

00

50

10

0

15

0

Die

sel a

nti

-id

ling

Fue

l eff

icie

nt t

ire

s fo

r LD

VFu

el e

con

om

y -

me

diu

m/h

eav

y tr

uck

sP

etr

ole

um

& G

as P

rod

uct

ion

Fue

l eco

no

my

stan

dar

ds

-Fe

de

ral E

ne

rgy

Bill

Sola

r P

V (

CA

So

lar

Init

iati

ve)

Uti

lity

Bas

ed

En

erg

y Ef

fici

en

cy

Hu

ffm

an B

ill (

Pri

mar

ily li

ghti

ng)

Fed

era

l Sta

nd

ard

s an

d T

itle

24

Re

visi

on

sC

em

en

t P

rod

uct

ion

Fu

el S

wit

chin

g

Fue

l eco

no

my

stan

dar

ds

-P

avle

y B

ill

Ce

me

nt

Pro

du

ctio

n E

ffic

ien

cyP

etr

ole

um

Re

fin

ing

Fly

Ash

Su

bst

itu

tio

nfo

r C

em

en

t

Smar

t G

row

th p

lan

nin

g an

d o

the

rs

Re

du

ced

ve

nti

ng/

leak

s in

oil

and

gas

sys

tem

Co

nse

rvat

ion

fo

rest

man

age

me

nt

Ligh

t du

ty p

lug-

in h

ybri

ds

Co

nse

rvat

ion

till

age

CH

P R

esi

de

nti

al a

nd

Co

mm

erc

ial:

Agg

ress

ive

Ind

ust

rial

CH

P (

aggr

ess

ive

gro

wth

)

Hig

h-G

WP

gas

es:

sta

tio

nar

y so

urc

e

Aff

ore

stat

ion

/ R

efo

rest

atio

nB

iod

iese

lR

ecy

clin

g-C

om

po

stin

gC

HP

Re

sid

en

tial

an

d C

om

me

rcia

lIn

du

stri

al C

HP

(p

rice

ince

nti

ves

and

PTC

)Fo

rest

co

nse

rvat

ion

Lan

dfi

ll M

eth

ane

Cap

ture

Bio

gas

Ele

ctri

city

Hig

h-G

WP

gas

es:

mo

bile

so

urc

eP

ort

ele

ctri

fica

tio

nM

ed

ium

/he

avy

tru

ck h

ybri

diz

atio

nEt

han

ol (

Low

Car

bo

n F

ue

ls)

Smal

l hyd

roG

eo

the

rmal

po

we

rO

the

r M

ate

rial

s P

rod

uct

ion

Win

d E

lect

ric

Sola

r Th

erm

al

Agg

ress

ive

IOU

EE

Bio

mas

s El

ect

rici

tyC

oal

Pla

nts

wit

h C

CS

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

US$

pe

r To

n C

O2

e

Total CO2 Reductions (Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent)

CO2 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve

Smaller than 0.5 MM Tonnne Reduction

Very Responsive to CO2 PricesPartially Responsive to CO2 PricesMinimally responsive to CO2 PricesExisting Regulation

ARPA-E Sensor and Behavior Initiative

Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy

(ARPA-E)

– Created in 2009, modeled after DARPA

– First FOA: 3,700 applications 37 awards (1 behavioral)

– $5.5 million award

– Duration: 2 years beginning April 1, 2010 (may be extended)

Interdisciplinary

– 15 faculty

– 10 departments, 5 schools, 5 centers

– 30+ students

– Faculty Director: Professor Byron Reeves

– Project Director: Carrie Armel

22

Transformation Eco-System

ENERGY

USE

TRANSFORMATION

ENGINE

BEHAVIOR

CHANGE

COLLECT

&

CAPTURE

PERVASIVE

SENSORS

SENSOR

DEVELOPMENT

COMMUNICATION

NETWORK

DATABASE

ANALYTICS

PROGRAMS

FOUNDATIONAL

WORK

MEDIA

PROGRAMS

POLICY

PROGRAMS

COMMUNITY

PROGRAMS

MODELING

ECONOMETRIC

ESTIMATION

SEGMENTATION

MULTI-AGENT

SIMULATION

TECHNOLOGY

PLATFORM

PRESENT

&

INFORM

WEB ENABLED

DEVICES

SYSTEM

GROUP INDIVIDUAL

High PerformanceSwitching and RoutingTelecom Center Workshop: Sept 4, 1997.

INSTANT (Infosys – Stanford Traffic Project)

Balaji Prabhakar

Research at Infosys in Bangalore, India

• The INSTANT project uses the framework of

incentive mechanisms to reduce road traffic

congestion.

• Infosys employees were given chances for one

month extra salary for each time they took bus to

arrive before 8 am

• The goal of our work is to incentivize Infosys

commuters to travel at uncongested times.

• INSTANT serves as a pilot project to demonstrate

the applicability of incentive compatible

congestion pricing to combat congestion.

About INSTANT

Commuter arrivals

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000 before 8 AMbefore 8:30 AMbefore 9 AM

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000 before 8 AMbefore 8:30 AMbefore 9 AM

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500before 8 AM

before 8:30 AM

before 9 AM

50

55

60

65

70

75

Sep '08 Oct '08 Nov '08 Dec '08 Jan '09 Feb '09 Mar '09

Min

ute

s

Commuter arrivals Bus commuter arrivals

Other commuter arrivals Average morning bus commute time

and total person-hrs saved

2000 person-hrs

1400 person-hrs

2300 person-hrs

100 person-hrs 500

person-hrs 600

person-hrs

26

Precourt Energy

Efficiency Center

http://peec.stanford.edu

27

28

29

30

31

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