Presented to ERCOT Retail Market Subcommittee March 13, 2002

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Presented to ERCOT

Retail Market Subcommittee

March 13, 2002

Profiling Working GroupDarryl Nelson, Chair

Load Profiling Operating Guides(LPOG)

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Sections of LPOG Approved by RMS:

• Change Control Process for LPOG (2)

• Purpose of Load Profiling (3)

• Guidelines for Load Profile Development (5)

• Request for Changes to Load Profile Methodology (7)

• Request for Changes to Load Profile Models (8)

• kVa to kW Conversion (10)

Summary of Approved Sections

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Sections of LPOG Approved by RMS:

• Validation of Load Profile IDs (11)

• Requests for Changes to Profile Segment Definitions (12)

• Requests for Changes to Weather Zone Definitions (13)

• Load Profile Dispute Resolution Process (14)

• Access to Load Profiling Materials (18)

Summary of Approved Sections (cont’d)

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Approval of Approach for 6 sections:

• Profiling Working Group (4)

• Load Profiling Methodology (6)

• Load Profile IDs (9)

• Load Research Samples (15)

• Supplemental Load Profiling(16)

• Load Profile Metering (17)

Goal for Today

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Brief Overview

• Purpose of Profile Working Group (PWG)

• PWG Responsibilities

• PWG Reporting Structure

• PWG Membership

• PWG Contact Information

Profiling Working Group

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Goal for Today

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Background

• This section details periodic evaluation of Load

Profiling Methodologies

• Requests for changing methodologies addressed in

LPOG Section 6

• No retroactive application of a new methodology for

Settlements

Load Profile Methodology

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Timing

• ERCOT will evaluate annually

• Special circumstances may warrant a more

immediate review

• Evaluations will be presented to the PWG


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Considerations for Evaluations

• Load Profile Model performance

• Methodology performance

• Effect of proposed methodology

• Practical implementation of proposed methodology


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Possible Results of Evaluation

• No changes to methodologies

• Modify existing methodology

• Implement alternative methodology


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Goal for Today

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Assignment of Load Profile IDGeneral:

• TDSPs are responsible for assigning Load Profile ID

• Profile Decision Tree provides direction (on website)

Components of Load Profile ID:

• Profile Type

• Weather Zone

• Meter Data Type

• Weather Sensitivity

• Time-of-Use Schedule

Load Profile IDs

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Initial Assignment of Load Profile IDs• Profile Type 2 Segments

- Res or NonRes

- Consumption ==> Mar2000 thru Feb2001

• Weather Zone Zip code mapping for 8 WZs

• Meter Data Type IDR or NonIDR

• Weather Sensitivity ERCOT determines

• Time-of-Use NoTOU or TOUxx

where xx = TDSP TOU code

Load Profile IDs

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Assignment for New ES IDs• Profile Type 2 Segments

- Res or NonRes

- Consumption ==> Default

• Weather Zone Zip code mapping for 8 WZs

• Meter Data Type IDR or NonIDR

• Weather Sensitivity ERCOT determines

• Time-of-Use NoTOU or TOUxx

where xx = TDSP TOU code

Load Profile IDs

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Validation of Load Profile ID Assignment

ERCOT will validate according to LPOG Section 11

Load Profile IDs

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kVA Metered Loads

• TDSPs are responsible for providing monthly usage and demand data (if available)

• If kVA only is metered, then the TDSP shall convert kVA to kW for proper assignment of Load Profile Ids

• Any TDSP that measures kVA instead of kW must coordinate with the PWG to determine the power factor that will be used to estimate kW demand.

Load Profile IDs

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Load Profile ID Assignment for Non-ERCOT

• TDSPs are required to assign ESI Ids for all service delivery points within Texas, not just ERCOT.

• TDSPs then must submit a Profile ID to ERCOT, even though not used in ERCOT settlements

• Profile Ids for non-ERCOT areas must be different from ERCOT Profile Ids.

• TDSPs can submit their own Profile ID names for non-ERCOT ESI Ids

• Complete list of non-ERCOT Profile Ids will be maintained in Profile Decision Tree

Load Profile IDs

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Load Profile ID Assignment for NOIEs

Gray-box removed; Resource ID issue resolved

• Submit Load Profile Ids for ESI Ids that represent NOIE metering points

• Default values for four of the five Profile ID components

• Only weather zone must be determined

• Profile Decision Tree contains details

Load Profile IDs

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Assignments for Opt-In Entities

• Opt-in entities are subject to all requirements detailed in this section for assigning Load Profile Ids

• Opt-in entities shall be responsible for assigning and submitting all ESI Ids and their corresponding Load Profile Ids

• Submission at least 120 days prior to effective start date of entry into open market.

Load Profile IDs

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Processes to Change Profile ID Assignments

Outline

• General info

• Changes from Initial Validation

• Changes from CR disputes

• Changes from Annual Validation

• Changes from Meter Changes

• Changes away from Default Load Profile ID

Load Profile IDs

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General info

• ERCOT, a TDSP, or a CR may initiate a change

• Assignments based on criteria in Profile Decision Tree

• All communication via EDI specified by Texas SET, except for alternatives detailed in these LPOG

• Changes to Load Profile ID assignment shall be effective with a specific meter read date

• Known errors in assignment shall be changed retroactively to the meter read date when no error existed or six months, whichever is less

Load Profile IDs

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Changes from Initial Validation

• Currently in process

• ERCOT will notify TDSPs of Profile ID discrepancies via an email with attached text file

• Details of process are in Section 11, Validation

Load Profile IDs

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Changes from CR disputes

• CRs shall submit any requested change to the appropriate TDSP, in accordance with the procedures of the TDSP

• If TDSP disallows requested change, CR can dispute to ERCOT

• ERCOT makes final determination

• TDSP submits change within 3 business days

Load Profile IDs

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Changes from Annual Validation

This subsection is gray-boxed due to on-going discussions within PWG for implementation later this year.

Load Profile IDs

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Changes from Meter Changes

• Initial ESI ID creation and meter sets

• Non-IDR to IDR

- IDR Requirement (> 1 MW)

- ERCOT monitors and produces monthly report

- CRs are responsible for requesting installation (30 days)

- TDSPs install IDR once request received

(60 days)

Load Profile IDs

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Changes from Meter Changes (cont’d)

• No TOU to TOU

- CR requests TDSP to install TOU meter

- TDSP has until second regularly scheduled meter read date to install

- Available TOU schedules can be found in the Profile Decision Tree

• TOU to No TOU

- TDSP has option to replace TOU meter or leave in place, “virtual meter change”

Load Profile IDs

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Changes from Meter Changes (cont’d)

• Demand to No Demand

Gray-boxed while waiting on PRR309 approval

• No Demand to Demand

- CR requests TDSP to install demand meter

- TDSP has until second regularly scheduled meter read date to install

- TDSP communicates to CR when expected meter change will take place

Load Profile IDs

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Changes away from Default Load Profile ID

• New ESI ID is initially assigned default Profile ID

- ResLowWR

- BusDemMedLF

• Once 12 months of consumption is available, CR may request a change to the appropriate Profile ID

• Residential ESI Ids can use 7 months from October to April to calculate winter ratio.

• Criteria in Profile Decision Tree must be followed

Load Profile IDs

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Goal for Today

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General Info• Load research sample data is required by ERCOT as the basis for developing and evaluating load profiles.

• In the interest of reducing time of development and lowering associated costs for profiles in an open market, TDSPs and NOIEs provided all load research data to ERCOT used in the initial development of load profiles.

• ERCOT will make use of TDSP and NOIE load research data to the extent such data are available and useful.

• ERCOT plans to develop and arrange for implementation of its own load research samples.

Load Research Samples

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TDSP Samples

Maintenance of existing samples

• TDSPs are required by Protocols to maintain these samples to accuracy designed.

- Replacing sample points

- Replacing or repairing malfunctioning data collection equipment

- Maintaining and operating data collection and processing systems

- Providing annual reports to ERCOT


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TDSP Samples

Notification to ERCOT

• Any major change to the design of a sample requires TDSP to give ERCOT one year notice

• Whenever practical, TDSPs shall give ERCOT one year notice for the following changes:

- New sample

- Rotating a sample

- Adding supplemental strata

- Bulk replacement of equipment or data collection systems

- Other changes to sample design or implementatiion


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TDSP Samples

General Reporting Procedures

• By April 1 of each year, TDSP will report to ERCOT the status of its load research samples and future plans for these samples, plus provide load research data

• By September 1 of each year, TDSPs will report to ERCOT any major changes to the samples planned for the next year

• When requested by ERCOT, TDSPs will provide load research data within 60 days

• Data provided includes both individual premise and aggregated class estimates.


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TDSP Samples

Required Information

For annual reporting and data transmittal

• Certain fields in data files

• Data dictionary

• Sample design description

• Key stats for each stratum

• Estimates of annual peak load and accuracy measures

• Plans for any future major changes

• Description of any major changes in preceding 12 months


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TDSP Samples

Additional Requested Information

• For each stratum, alternate sample points installed and fraction of intervals with missing or bad data

• For each class sample, definitions of rate classes applicable to the sample

• Description of sample coverage


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TDSP Samples

Availability of Data

Load research data provided to ERCOT from the TDSP will only be available to ERCOT for its use in load profiling.


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TDSP Samples

Creation of New TDSP Samples

• TDSPs that develop a new load research sample shall inform ERCOT of the plan to develop the sample

• TDSPs will provide to ERCOT basic information about the population and sample design


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ERCOT Samples

General Info

According to the Protocols, ERCOT is responsible for developing new load research samples if it determines that existing load research data are insufficient for profile development and maintenance.


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ERCOT Samples

Availability of Data

• ERCOT will provide descriptive information available on load research samples, in support of load profiling, according to Protocols 18.3.1.

• Aggregate data from load research samples will also be made available to market participants by ERCOT

• Gray-boxed language addresses availability of individual sample point data. This issue and possibly this whole subsection (15.2.2) might be superceded by rulings from new PUC Docket No. 25516


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ERCOT Samples

Criteria of Standards

• Samples will be designed to meet a standard of +/- 10% accuracy at 90% confidence

• Review of achieved accuracy include:

- Accuracy of energy within certain time-of-use periods

- Demand at peak hour in each month

- Total energy consumption in each month

- Accuracy of load-weighted average price


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ERCOT Samples

Creation of New Samples

• Gray-boxed language addresses rights of data use by a third party. This issue and possibly this whole subsection (15.2.4) might be superceded by rulings from new PUC Docket No. 25516

• ERCOT will provide to the PWG basic information about the population and sample design


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ERCOT Samples

Guidelines for Installing and Refreshing Samples

• Decision to develop new load research samples will be based on ERCOT’s annual evaluation of models and methods.

• Triggers include:

- Poor model performance in areas that have inadequate load research data

- TDSP plans to discontinue load research programs

- Current models are based on old load research data


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Goal for Today

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General Info

According to Protocols 18.7, supplemental profiles should be developed for programs or pricing schemes that encourage a demand response to price in the retail market.

Protocols details the development of two supplemental profiles and allows for development of other future supplemental profiles.

The two supplemental profiles are:

- Time-of-Use ==> currently available to CRs

- Direct Load Control==>available in late 2002

Supplemental Profiling

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Load Profiling for Time-of-Use

General Info

Per the Protocols 18.7.1.4:

• CRs have the right to offer time-of-use schedules, but only those schedules associated with an existing TOU tariff within a TDSP service territory OR new schedules agreed to by the TDSP.

• Implementation of new TOU schedules subject to ERCOT and Texas SET change control process

• All TOU schedules must approved by PUCT

• Restrictions on TOU schedules may change when metering becomes competitive


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Establishing New TOU Schedules

• PUCT approval

• MP submits approved TOU schedule to ERCOT

• ERCOT makes necessary system changes to accommodate new schedule

• Limitation of four TOU periods


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Timing of New TOU Schedule Implementation

• ERCOT will implement new schedule within seven business days

• Once TOU meter is installed and programmed to record kWh per the new schedule, the CR may begin submitting ESI Ids with a Load Profile ID reflecting this TOU schedule to ERCOT


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Chunking Profiling Methodology Description

Standard load profile is applied to monthly consumption, but energy for each TOU period in the load profile is scaled to equal metered energy for the TOU period.


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Evaluation of the Chunking Profiles

• Assess general method based on profiles from other areas

• Assess using load research data within ERCOT

• Assess using data on customer characteristics within ERCOT

• Revisions to TOU Profile methods


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Direct Load Control

General Info

• Each direct load control program is required to use a statistically representative load research sample on the DLC population as a load profile, per Protocols 18.7.2

• Unique process to determine DLC load profiles


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Direct Load Control

TDSP Programs

Gray-boxed language reflects SB7 directive that investor-owned utilities are not allowed to administer DLC programs, but does this apply to opt-in entities?


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Direct Load Control

Responsibilities of CRs

• Costs of installation, maintenance, and processing of load research samples in support of DLC program

• Keep ERCOT up-to-date of ESI Ids in DLC program

• Provide ERCOT with types of loads controlled and control and communication technologies

• Notify ERCOT of changes to information previously provided, e.g. types of loads controlled, definition of dispatch groups


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Direct Load Control

Appropriate use of Sponsor Funds for Sampling

• ERCOT will conduct sample design and implementation prudently

• DLC load research data will be used only for development and evaluation of DLC profiles


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Direct Load Control

ERCOT Responsibilities

• Sampling

• Validation

• Statistical Validity

• Random Selection

• Accuracy

• AEIC Load Research Manual

• ERCOT requested data


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Direct Load Control

ERCOT Responsibilities (cont’d)

• Implementation of load research samples

• Processing load research data

• Verify sample validity of control devices and communication equipment


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Other Supplemental Load Profiles

Ordinarily, any other supplemental load profile shall use the same approach as DLC (lagged dynamic method), but these requests will be evaluated on a program by program basis.


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Requesting DLC or Other Supplemental Profiles• Only the CR serving the customers on a demand-responsive scheme may request a supplemental load profile to serve those customers

• ERCOT will post a request form to their website

• CR shall provide sufficient information to allow ERCOT to construct a representative sample design that accurately estimates the DLC or supplemental program load

• Once request has been received, ERCOT has 60 days to respond with questions and/or information about implementing the DLC samples

• ERCOT shall implement a new load research sample for DLC or other supplemental profiles within six months of final agreement between CR and ERCOT on sample design


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Access to Data

Gray-boxed subsection has been deferred until a later time when it is more relevant.


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Goal for Today

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Introduction• This section is a summary of major metering issues related to Load Profiling

• Primary uses of metering data are:

- To assign each ESI ID

- To allow validation for Load Profile ID assignments

- To ensure profile models are appropriately specified

- To allow for profile model development

Load Profile Metering

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IDR Requirement• IDR Requirement is defined in Protocols 18.6

• ERCOT shall monitor ESI Ids demand data to determine if 1000 kW threshold is met.

• ERCOT shall publish a monthly report to each CR

• CR is responsible for requesting an IDR installation within 30 days

• TDSP is responsible for installing requested IDR within 60 days

• Costs will be borne by the appropriate party in accordance with approved TDSP tariffs


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Demand Meter Changes• TDSPs are responsible to enforce appropriate thresholds and tariffs requiring the installation of a demand meter

• Demand to NoDemand

- CR has the option to keep a demand meter in place for their own billing purposes

- TDSPs have the option to physically remove the demand meter or do a “virtual meter change”


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Any IDRs installed as part of a load research program that is used in support of ERCOT load profiling or TDSP cost allocation/rate design are not subject to the IDR Requirement and may be removed as needed.


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Supplemental• Metering for supplemental load profiling shall be in accordance with Protocols Section 10 “Metering” and Section 18 “Load Profiling”

• Any TOU metering must be able to collect and record meter data into specified TOU periods approved by the PUCT


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Goal for Today

Documents

Presented to ERCOT Retail Market Subcommittee March 13, 2002