The project is engaged in the following elds:

Quantification of earthquake hazard (exceedance probability of a certain ground shaking

amplitude/level) including the influence of soil amplification characteristics

Seismic vulnerability of the built and populated environment

Development of models and software tools for risk quantification (risk = vulnerability * hazard)

Loss modeling at different scales

Here, the term earthquake hazard refers to the occurrence probabilities of damaging groundmotions, exclusively relating to natural phenomena and processes, while risk and loss resultsfrom combining the earthquake hazard with the vulnerability of the building stock.

Prosjekt | Earthquake hazard, risk and loss

PERIODE | 2003 - 2012

PROSJEKTLEDER | HILMAR

BUNGUM

The project is engaged in research topics withinquantification of earthquake hazard, seismicvulnerability, models for risk quantification and lossmodeling.

IntroductionEarthquakes hit without warning (Fig. 1), but with a damage potential that is generally con nedto a limited area around the epicentre or along the fault trace. In most cases, it is thecombination of earthquake magnitude, poor building quality, and high population density ofthe area of highest shaking that cause the disasters. This is one of the reasons why, withincreasing population and urbanization in earthquake-prone countries, the losses fromearthquakes have been increasing signi cantly over the last decades (Fig. 2).

Figure 1. Collapse of a dwelling due to the Kashmir earthquake of October 8, 2005.

Figure 2. (left) Global economic losses per decade in billions of US-$, normalized to the year 2000 value (Munich Re) and

(right) risk curves due to storms, oods, and earthquakes for the city of Cologne, Germany. The data considers losses at

buildings and in the sectors private housing, commerce, and industry for the year 2000 (courtesy of G. Grünthal, 2004). When

comparing earthquake risk with other natural risks it is informative to see from Fig. 2 that, at low probabilities, the earthquake

risk is far above the risk from other natural hazards (even in low-seismicity regions like e.g., Germany).

This implies that the earthquake damage increases strongly with decreasing occurrenceprobabilities (increasing return periods), which in turn means that the largest ones are rare butvery destructive. This indicates that at any given location one cannot rely on "human lifetimememory" as a basis for precautionary measures: science is needed instead.

At present, earthquakes cannot be predicted within reasonable time and spatial windows, andthe viable disaster prevention is therefore to delineate the earthquake-prone areas and tounderstand in detail the factors that turn an earthquake into a disaster or prevents the same.

Only with such knowledge, society can develop the capacity to limit future tragedies, andmitigation is a key word for the work within the ICG Project 3.

Research topics1. Earthquake hazard and site amplification

2. Seismic risk and loss analysis software (SELENA)

3. Vulnerability

4. Damage and loss estimation

Currently, SELENA computes seismic losses using the capacity spectrum method. The losses are

computed as aggregates of the inflicted damages to each building type within a predefined area

(a city quadrant, census tract or any user-specified area). The damage to the physical environment

can then be converted to monetary damages as well as to estimates of casualties using empirical

relations. The damages are presented in tabular form and any appropriate mapping or graphing

software can be used to display the results in easy understandable figures.

5. Illustration of risk and loss results - RISe

6. Tsunami modelling

7. Soil amplification studies

Related external projectsSeveral related projects are proceeding in 2008, including the EU projects LESSLOSS, NERIES,SAFER, and TRANSFER. In addition, MFA (UD) funded projects in Central America, Pakistan,and India. The coordination between ICG Project 3 and these projects will be very important inthe coming years.

Within NERIES, NORSAR is charged with coordinating the development of shake maps forEurope, and will also take part in the evaluation of risk estimation software and lossassessments. Within SAFER, NORSAR is responsible for developing real time damagescenarios, where the city of Naples and possibly Bucharest will be used as targets.

Another activity under the SAFER project is for NORSAR to develop rapid epicentre solutions

risk is far above the risk from other natural hazards (even in low-seismicity regions like e.g., Germany).

based on array data processing. NORSAR also has a small component in TRANSFER withfocus on tsunami-generating earthquake sources in the North Atlantic.

Plans for 2008

Further development of the SELENA software with the main focus on distribution and application

Expansion and adjustment of the RISe software

Strengthening of structural modelling and nonlinear analysis capacities

Further work on intra-plate ground-motion models (EU)

Tsunami source modelling of fault dislocations (cooperation with ICG Project 10)

Numerical simulation of H/V-data and further work on site amplification

Cooperation and coordination with other projects (EU, MFA)

Development of competence for multi-hazard and risk mitigation (earthquakes, tsunami,

landslides)

Visitors program (including students)

Publications (papers and reports)

5 Publications 2007-2009

Papers, Publications and ReportsSee here, for list of papers, publications and reports from this research area, "Earthquakehazard, risk and loss".

Personnel

Hilmar Bungum

Amir M. Kaynia

Daniela Kühn

Dominik Lang

Conrad Lindholm

Sergio Molina

Volker Oye

Hilmar BungumPOSITION | Sub-project ManagerNatural HazardsE | Hilmar.Bungum@norsar.noM |

/ CONTACTS