Public Opinion and Political Action

Unit II – Political Beliefs and BehaviorsAP U.S. Government and Politics

Introduction• This chapter deals with public opinion and its

influence on U.S. politics.– Public opinion – The distribution of the population’s

beliefs about politics and policy issues.• Americans’ political opinions are shaped by a

variety of factors.• Public opinion has an important impact on

government, but usually doesn’t determine what officials will do.

The American People• The U.S has always been a nation of immigrants.

• The U.S. has often been called a melting pot because of its history of immigration and mixing of cultures, ideas, and people.• Policymakers have begun to speak of a majority-minority,

meaning that America will eventually cease to have a non-Hispanic white majority.

– Current trends in America• Population growth in south and west.• Overall aging of the population.

Political Socialization• Political socialization is the learning process by

which people acquire their political opinions, beliefs, and values.– Political opinions are part of political culture.– Political culture – the characteristic and deep-seated

beliefs of a particular people about gov’t and politics.• The political socialization process takes place

through a number of agents of socialization.– Agents of socialization – Those agents, such as the family

and the media, that have a significant impact on citizens’ political affiliation.

Primary Socializing Agents Secondary Socializing Agents

Introduced at a very young age. Come into play as a person gets older.

Family – shapes a person’s beliefs from a very young age.• Children tend to place great trust in what their parents say.

Peers – many individuals share political opinions with their peers.

School – affects a child’s basic political beliefs.• mostly show government and leaders in a positive light.

Mass media – images in media impact an individual’s political beliefs.

Church – influence children's’ attitudes on society’s obligations toward different groups.• ex. The poor, the unborn

Political Leaders – become a major source of opinion.• most influential - President

Socializing Agents

Group Orientations

• Many Americans’ group affiliation impacts their political beliefs.– Self-interest is tied to the group, and they are likely to

respond when an issue arises that affects the group.– Religion

• Catholics and Jews have obligation to help the poor.• The “Religious Right” see the Bible as infallible truth.

– Opinions on abortion, gay rights, school prayer differ from society as a whole.

– Economic Class• Income and education level affect Americans’ opinions.• Lower income Americans more likely to support welfare; higher

income Americans more likely to support tax cuts.

Group Orientations, cont.– Region

• “Red States” – Republican bastions in the South, Great Plains, and Rocky Mountains.

• “Blue States” – Democratic bastions in the Northeast, northern Midwest, and West Coast.

– Race and Ethnicity• Blacks and Hispanics more supportive of affirmative action and less

trusting of police and judicial system.

– Gender• Men and Women think alike on many issues but differ on others.

– Women – more likely to support poverty assistance and education.– Men – more likely to support use of military force.

• Women are typically more liberal while men tend to be more conservative.

• On average more women are Democrats and more men are Republicans.

Group Orientations, cont.– Generations and Age• Americans of different ages respond differently to age-related

policies.• Older people are more likely to be involved in the political

process than younger people.

– Crosscutting• Individuals belong to multiple groups, leading to crosscutting.• One group’s beliefs will offset another’s leading to political

moderation.

Party Identification• Partisanship is a major frame of political reference

for many Americans.– Party identification – a person’s sense of loyalty to a

political party.– Party identification is not formal membership in a party

but rather an emotional attachment to it.• Partisanship impacts how people “see” candidates

and issues.– Selective Perception leads to people selectively choosing

information that supports what they already believe.

Political Ideology• Ideology – A consistent pattern of opinion on

particular issues that stems from a core set of beliefs.

• Less than ¼ of Americans have opinions consistent enough to have a true political ideology.

– Most Americans have ideological leanings.• economic liberals vs. economic conservatives• cultural (social) liberals vs. cultural (social) conservatives• libertarians vs. populists

– Ideological tendencies are a good way to look at how Americans think about government.

Measuring Public Opinion• Government is based on a system of relationships

one can’t see.– Public opinion is the same way, since we can’t “see” it,

we must measure it indirectly.• Today, the primary method for estimating public

opinion is through polls.– In a public opinion poll, a relatively few individuals – the

sample – are interviewed to estimate the opinions of a whole population.• Choosing respondents at random will allow their opinions to

approximate those of the entire population.

Public Opinion Polls• The accuracy of a poll is expressed in terms of

sampling error.– Sampling error is the degree to which the sample

estimates may differ from what the population actually thinks.

– The Gallup Organization has polled voters in every presidential election since 1936 and erred badly only once (1948).

– Rasmussen Reports

The Gallup Poll predicted that Dewey would defeat Truman in the 1948 presidential election. A Gallup poll a few weeks prior showed Dewey with a seemingly insurmountable lead, leading the Chicago Tribune to print the wrong result. Here, Truman holds up the Chicago Tribune with the headline “Dewey Defeats Truman” after his victory.

Problems with Polls

• Increasing refusal to participate in telephone polls.• Polled individuals unfamiliar with issues.• Dishonesty by respondents.• Poorly worded questions and poor question order.– Differently worded questions yield different answers.

• Non-opinions.– This occurs when respondent is uninformed and their

response can’t be considered valid.

Types of Polls• Straw Poll – unscientific survey used to gauge public

opinion on a variety of issues.• Tracking polls – continuous surveys that enable a

campaign or news organization to chart a candidate’s daily rise or fall in support.

• Exit polls – are done as voters leave selected polling places on election day.

• Push polls – Taken for the purpose of providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against that candidate.

Influence of Public Opinion on Policy• What impact does public opinion have on

government policies?– There is disagreement over the impact it should have.– Answer varies, most studies show that public opinion

does influence policymakers.

Limits on Public Influence• Inconsistency in citizens’ policy preferences.• Citizens’ lack of understanding issues.– Citizens need some understanding of issues in order to

influence opinion.

Public Opinion and the Boundaries of Action• Public opinion places boundaries on the actions of

political leaders.– V.O. Key – “politicians must operate within the limits of

what the public deems reasonable and acceptable.”• The greater the public involvement the more likely politicians

will respond.• Leaders use discretion when responding to public opinion.

• In many cases, the public is divided on an issue.• Leaders can’t satisfy both sides, so they usually take the side of

their party.

• Some feel policies reflect the preferences of leaders more than citizens.

How do people become involved in politics?• Political participation – involvement in activities

intended to influence public policy and leadership.– Voting– Joining political groups– Writing to elected officials– Demonstrating for political causes– Giving money to political candidates

Voter Participation• When the U.S. was founded suffrage was limited to

property-owning males.• 15th Amendment – seemingly gave blacks the right to vote

after Civil War.– Blacks were disenfranchised in the south by trickery and

intimidation.• White-only primaries, rigged literacy tests, poll taxes.

– African Americans fought for equal rights through speeches, boycotts, demonstrations, lobbying, civil disobedience, and passive resistance.

• Not until the 1960s were all barriers to suffrage eliminated for African Americans.

• 19th Amendment (1920) gave women the right to vote.• 26th Amendment (1971) changed voting age to 18.

• In the United States, the percentage of voters who are members of a racial or ethnic minority group has increased over the last 20 years.

Voter Turnout• Today, any American adult can vote.• Voter turnout – the proportion of persons of voting

age who actually vote in a given election.– Since the 1960s, voter turnout in Presidential Elections is

about 55%.• There has been an upward trend in presidential voting.

• U.S. voter turnout is low in comparison to other Western democracies.– Much of America’s lower turnout is attributed to

registration requirements and frequency of elections.

Voter turnout in presidential elections, 1960-2008.

Registration Requirements• Before Americans vote, they must register.– Registration began in order to keep people from voting multiple

times.– After registration began, voter turnout declined.

• In the U.S., registration is the responsibility of the citizen, not the government.

– In most states, persons must live at an address for 30 days to register.• States with convenient registration laws have voter turnout over 10%

higher than Nat'l average.

– “Motor Voter” law was enacted in 1993 by Congress to increase participation levels.• People can register to vote when applying for driver’s license or public

assistance.

Voter Turnout – U.S. vs. Other Countries

Voter ID Cards• Voter ID cards depress voter turnout.– Legislatures in a few states enacted voter ID laws, requiring

voters to have government ID to vote.• Republicans, most of whom support this, say that it prevents

voter fraud.• Democrats, many of whom oppose, feel it is a disguised effort to

keep low income people from voting.

– All voter ID legislation- proposed by Republicans.• Georgia photo ID/voter identification card law.

• Federal judge struck down monetary requirement – violates 24th Amendment, which outlaws poll taxes.

– Supreme Court upheld Indiana voter ID card requirement.

Frequency of Elections• America’s election schedule also places a burden on

voters.– The U.S. holds elections more often than other nations.

• Americans are asked to vote two to three times as often as Europeans, increasing the likelihood that they won’t participate every time.– U.S. elections are scheduled on Tuesday, forcing many

people to go after work.– Many other countries make election day a national

holiday.

Why Some Americans Vote and Others Don’t• Education and Income– College educated and upper-income Americans have

above average voting rates.

• Age– Young adults are much less likely to vote compared to

middle age and older adults.– Senior Citizens have a high turnout level – they are the

largest group of voters and thus attractive to candidates.– Only a small percentage of young adults vote in local

elections.• Civic Attitudes– Apathy, or a lack of interest in politics, exists in some

citizens.– Others refrain from voting because of alienation, the

feeling of powerlessness developed when a person feels the government does not care about them.

– Other Americans have a sense of civic duty, the belief that they should participate in political affairs.• These attitudes typically come from parents.

Elections• Elections are responsible for most political changes

in U.S. – The U.S. is almost unrivaled in the variety and number of

elections it holds.– In the U.S., the electoral process has two stages: primary

and general elections.

Primary Elections• In primary elections, voters decide which

candidates will represent the party in general elections.– Closed primaries allow only a party’s registered voters to

cast a ballot.– In open primaries, independents and sometimes

members of the other party can vote.• In eight states, a runoff primary will occur if none of the

candidates in a initial primary secures a majority of the votes.– A runoff primary is a contest between the two top candidates.

General Elections• Once the parties have selected their candidates for

each office, general elections occur.– In a general election, voters decide which candidates will

actually hold political offices.– Unlike primary elections, general elections are contests

between candidates of opposing parties.

Conventional Forms of Participation• Other opportunities exist for citizens to participate

in politics.• Campaign and Lobbying Activities– Compared to Europeans, more Americans get involved in

campaign activities.– More time consuming than voting.– Americans are also more likely to support political

groups.• Contributing money, contacting lawmakers, attending rallies.

• Virtual Participation– The internet has created additional opportunities to

participate in politics.• E-mail, social networks, chat rooms.• Much easier to get information on candidates and issues.

• Community Activities– Political participation extends to involvement in the

community.• Parent-teacher associations, church-affiliated groups, business

clubs.• People work together on issues of community concern.• This may have led to a decline in social capital, which is the

sum of face-to-face interactions in society.

Unconventional Activism• Social (Political) Movements are a way for citizens

to express their opposition to government.– Young people are more likely to get involved in

demonstrations.• Protests have become more organized in recent

years.– Many protests involve a great deal of planning.

• Public support for protests is relatively low in U.S.

Participation and the Potential for Influence • Most Americans are not highly active in politics.– Many Americans try to solve problems on their own

rather than through political action.• Lower income Americans are least likely to vote.– Their political influence is relatively limited.

• Pattern of individual political participation mirrors the distribution of influence that exists in private sector.– Those who have the most power economically often

have the most political power.