Qatar -Global trends,New Dynamics

Foreign Policy New Dynamics Global trends 2030Qatar Vision 2030Porter's Diamond Of National AdvantageRecommendations

Qatar Foreign PolicyImplications

• Qatar sees the Arab spring as an opportunity to spread influence to achieve global positioning using wealth &diplomacy toward transitioning Arab spring,supporting transitioning states toward democracy.

• Various geopolitical risks including GCC national security agenda against MB hostage &miscalculated risks in Egypt&Syria led to redirect inititives and prorities toward the region.

• Qatar acting as respected diplomatic mediator to embrace change in the Middle East and North Africa,taking comparative advantage as trusted peacemaker to strengthen international peace and security means of providing resolution for international disputes.

New Foreign Policy Dynamics

• The pragmatic diplomacy &power in Qatar foreign policy aim to maintain power balances,and refocus on its ambitions& domestic developments.

• GCC integration &unity toward syria will create opportunity to align priorities, unify strategically withSaudi& reduce creation of extremists that would lead to more complications.and enhance the U.S policy in the region.

Global Economic Trends 2030

• Global economies will continue to become more integrated by2030,as FDI flows are expected to grow four times,& exports will account for 33% of GDP.

• The health of the global economy increasingly will be linked to how well the developing world does

• U.S the Us will start natural gas production to maintain domestic sufficiency by 2030

and potential global exports for decades to come,would result in a substantial reduction in the Usnet trade balance and foster economic development,as consequences,Global surplus may exceed over 8 M barrels, at which point OPEC would face pice volatility.

EURO ZONE increase severity of climate disasters,and wave of unrest, the already fragile

alliance having split along north-south lines.too-strong euro pushes the eurozone into a financial black hole,rising unemployment.while the U.S &Japan weakening their currencies against the euro & taking trade advantage to avoid such crises.

Global Economic Trends 2030

China

China is expecred to have the largest economy, emerging countries such s india and,China will catch up with the developing world by 2030

in terms of GDP,population size, military spending, and technological investment.attracting alarge amount of FDIs.

Russia

Russia global output expected to shrink from 3.1%in 2020 to 1.8%by 2030 however It envisions measures to modernize energy infrastructure industry considered the as the largest gas reserve in the world.

Global Economic Trends 2030

BRICs

A dramatic increase in growthup to 7.9 P.A. their share of global exports 23% by 2030.China the largest single equity market in the world as their equity market cap will rise from 11%to 28% by 2030, followed by the United States (23%). India'5.4%,Russia (3.7%) and Brazil (3.1%.

Beyond the BRICs

the next eleven share of global exports will rise to 12% by 2030,

as South Korea,Mexico and Turkey will make most of the exports beteen 2010-2030. The next 11 Acronym:Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, Vietnam.

QATAR National Vision 2030

Porter's Diamond Of National AdvantageEconomic Development

Demand Condition 2030-China gas demand increase by %3.5

India %3.9,Asian marke %1.8 -Reduction in the U.S gas demand as

the worlds largest consumer -increasing demand on value-added

petrochemical products from China&Asnian countries

-increasing demand from Ukraine after crises -increasing gas demand &infrastructure in Turkey

-Formulation of coalition of medium powers &Inter regional linkagesW Latin American,

Southeast Asian,Africa in energy& food security sector

Related/Supporting Indutries

- the increasing demand for gas in europe requires qatari construction LNG terminals

to supply around the globe- launch value-added petrochemical products

-investment in LNG infrasturcture toextend supply around the globe

-Diversification of SWF $115 B over 27 countriesto reduce volatility risk&

achieve intergenerational savings

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Factor Condition-Partnership with Russia

for gas explortation-Partnership with Korea &China

to benefit from technologicalinfrastructure&innovation to build LNG

infrastructure -Foster R&D that leads to naitional advantage

-Signing long-term contracts with-Building diversion clauses in oil contracts will provide

flexibility,price control &minimize price

decline&quantity risks,

Governments-The increasing demand toward global FDIs-Qatar to enhance political stability through

economic cooperation-Qatar ranked 30 th freest economy

globally&peacemaker willfoster the country global integration

to global economy

Structured Rivalry

-Russia supply to europe 30%/ China-UAE suupply to Asia/Japan

-Iran supply to europe/Asian market-U.S gas production to reach sufficiency by 2030

-renewable energy to source 20%by2030

Porter's Diamond Of National AdvantageClimate Change

Demand Condition 2030-Decrease in the capacity of cean’ carbon absorption

-rise in temperatures around3-410 C -ggobal sea levels will rise by 52-98cm by 2100.

-Directly affect 3.2% of the Gulf region’s population,-Reduced life expectancy of buildings

-Increase of cost investment to adapt to climate change in real estate-Electricity transmission and distribution networks would be overloaded

Related/Supporting Indutries-Global effrots to reduce gas emission

-Financing clean technology in developing countriesFactor Condition

-Capacity-building under the Convention for countries with economies in transition

Governments-Hostage of Koyota conference

-Funding R&D for clean technologies -

Structured Rivalry-lack of policies toward human activity impacting climate change

-lack of possessing lates technology/recycling efficiency-

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Porter's Diamond Of National AdvantageSocial/Human Development

Demand Condition 2030-Embarke projects of 25 B value

-Increasing demand for skilled workers to constitue 80% of construction/engineering

-Influx of expats following the arab spring

Related/Supporting Indutries-Partnerships between U.S universities&Qatarto foster human capital & non-hydro strategy

Factor Condition-preserve the national identity to blend

cultures with modernization-Openess to other cultures to foster innovation

,learning,cultural intelligence,a well-developed culture brings dramatic,

sustained increases in productivity- The vitl role for Government

to encourage technoglogy education

Government

-Foster national identity &pride through policies

&initiatives throughout population&organizations-Foster R&D

-Foster partnerships to advance technology

Structured Rivalry-Brain Drain to attain higher &specialized education

-Immigration resulted from regional instability

Recommendations:

• The pragmatic diplomacy &power in Qatar foreign policy to maintain power balances,and refocus on its ambitions& domestic developments.

• FDI would provide competitive advantage for emerging economies,getting access to advanced technologies&economies of scale of Formulation of coalition of medium powers &Inter regional linkagesW Latin American,Southeast Asian,Africa.

• Dramatic increase in oil demand from BRICs by 35% by 2030,that would lead to extend LNG contracts.

• Chances in partnerships W Asian pacific, South Korea,China in energy infrastructure field,and technology

• The tendency to Changes in global structures of production, trade,& finance were reflected in the rise of BRICs acronym as center of influence.

Recommendations:

• As the Qatari SWF ranked the 8th largest,it is distinct advantage for geographical distribution , to reach cross-sectional returns

• value-added petrol chemicals,aluminum will contribute to economic transformation ,and benefit from economies of scale in china&Asian makets.

• Pegging Qatari currency to US $ will reduce inflationary pressures from investment overcapacity over the medium run.Different precautions can offset repercussion :Building solid financial system buffers&invest in bonds market .

• Building diversion clauses in oil contracts will provide flexibility,price control &minimize price decline&quantity risks,

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