21
India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing superior, sustainable returns over a long period SageOne Investment Advisory Services Quest for Outstanding Investments

Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments

India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of

capital while also providing superior, sustainable returns over a long period

SageOne Investment Advisory Services

Quest for Outstanding Investments

Page 2: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 2

Who We Are

SageOne Investment Advisors:

Investment advisory firm with alignment of interest - we will commit

significant personal capital into same investments as clients

Managed by seasoned professionals who are passionate about investing

Downside risk management embedded in our DNA

Stable and Cohesive investment team with diverse capital market

experience

Focused on capital allocation for sustainable long term returns through

reasonably diversified investment portfolio where we have domain

knowledge  

Page 3: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments

Key Executive Team Members

3

Name & Education

Yrs of Exp

Role Background

Manish JainB Com, MBA, CWA

20 Fund raising, strategic partnerships and idea generation

Rated as the Best Analyst in India by Institutional Investor / Asia Money Polls.

Early identifier of global generics opportunity and instrumental in raising over US $700m for Indian pharma companies. Worked with employers such as Deutsche Securities, DSP Merrill Lynch and Barclays.

Samit VartakCFA, MBA, BE

17 Chief Investment Officer (CIO): Stock selection, sector/stock allocation, deciding on buying/selling timing, cash levels and idea generation

International experience in investments, M&A, strategic corporate planning, business valuation and management strategy consulting

Worked with employers such as E&Y TAS, Deloitte FAS, Gap Inc and PwC Consulting in the US.

Kuntal ShahB Engg (BE)

20 Researching deep value, asymmetrically rewarding investment ideas; Fund raising

Experience of advising assets totaling US $600m for family offices across multiple asset classes.

Early identifier and investor in India's mobile revolution & the carbon credit story. Guest lecturer / visiting faculty at leading business schools.

Page 4: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 4

Performance of Portfolio Managed by the CIO Since Inception

Inception on April 15, 2008 before the financial crisis related crash in the Indian market

* Not Annualized

** CIO Portfolio, CNX Midcap and Nifty returns are weighted by capital flow/timing as mentioned in the next slide. MF performance is not weighted by capital flow

***HDFC EF is a large cap fund managed by Prashant Jain, IDFC PEF is small/mid-cap fund managed by Kenneth Andrade and Reliance LTEF is a mid-cap fund managed by Sunil Singhania. These 3 are India's best MF managers

Returns

CIO's Portfolio Return**

CNX Midcap Wtd

Return** Nifty WtdReturn**

HDFC Equity Fund***

IDFC Premier Equity Fund-

R(G)

Reliance Long Term Equity

Fund(G)

15-Apr-08

Apr15 '08 - Mar'09 -20.0% -32.2% -38.1% -34.0% -35.5% -37.5%

FY10 51.9% 54.4% 32.2% 114.5% 109.8% 92.3%

FY11 19.4% 5.0% 14.5% 18.9% 12.9% 6.6%

FY12 7.9% -3.6% -9.4% -7.4% 4.0% -6.5%

FY13 38.3% -1.7% 9.0% 3.6% 10.8% 4.3%

FY14 (YTD) * 29.5% 2.5% 16.9% -5.4% -5.2% -10.5%

Annualized Returns (Apr'08 -Oct'13) 26.4% 4.6% 8.0% 7.9% 9.6% 2.0%

Page 5: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 5

Methodology Used In Measuring Performance

Capital flowed in/out of the portfolio (managed by the CIO) over the past 5 ½

years. Hence CIO returns are of actual portfolio weighted by capital and

timing of flow (XIRR)

To facilitate comparison, Nifty and Midcap Index returns are also weighted by

the above capital and time and hence are exactly comparable (XIRR)

The 3 Mutual Funds’ performance is not weighted by CIO’s capital and time.

Its based on their start and end NAV for each fiscal years (Apr – Mar) and

hence are not exactly comparable, though they are comparable when looked

over multiple years

Mutual Funds performance includes dividends but CIO and Index calculation

doesn’t (averaged ~ 1.5 % annually)

Page 6: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 6

1 MillionInvested in Apr '08 Would Be Worth

Apr 15' 08 Mar 31 '09 Mar 31 '10 Mar 31 '11 Mar 31 '12 Mar 31 '13 Oct 24 '13 -

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

CIO CNX Midcap Index Nifty IndexHDFC Equity Fund IDFC Premier Equity Fund-R(G) Reliance Long Term Equity Fund(G)

Page 7: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 7

How Are We Different?

Downside protection v/s upside participation: Prime focus on downside protection and

best businesses.

Quality wins out: As a long term investor, we struggle with the “everything has a price”

mantra. However, the fact is that companies with true franchise qualities such as

leading brands, low cost structures and strong balance sheets perform better over a

cycle than their lesser competitors.

In equities, if you can avoid purchases of bad business or overpay for good ones, the

winners will take care of themselves. We believe most strongly that the best

foundation for above-average long term performance is an absence of lemons which

permanently destroy capital. It is for this reason that a quest for consistency and

protection, not single-year greatness, is a common thread underlying our investment

process.

Page 8: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 8

How Are We Different?

Alignment of Interest: More than 85% of our CIO’s assets in listed equities are in the

same portfolio as yours. CIO will buy/sell at the same time and at the same price as for

the clients for all future buys/sells. This may not be possible in cases where CIO

already has a position along with existing clients.

No lock in clause. We want you to be our client because of our performance and not

due to any legal right to lock your funds.

Page 9: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 9

What We Bring To The Table

In-depth understanding of emerging trends and opportunities in key growth

sectors in India

Domain Knowledge

Current investors, who are leading business families, provide access,

reference check as well as links for business development

Strong Network of Business Families

Identified companies which are likely to perform across business and

economic cycles

Repository of Investible Ideas

Ability to add value through strategic inputs, networking and competitive

intelligence

Value-add Competency

Multi business cycle tracking of select businesses has provided knowledge

of “what to focus on” and “what not to do”

Separate the wheat from the chaff

Page 10: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 10

Investment Philosophy

“Invest in Companies that can compound their capital at an above-average rate while incurring a below-average level of risk and at attractive valuations”

Sustainable ROCE

High ROE with prudent debt level

Reinvestment opportunity

High Returns

Efficient capital allocation

Clear distribution & retention policy

Minority shareholder friendly

Quality Management & Integrity

Prudent leverage

Good margins w/ conservative accounting policies

High free cash flow

Superior Balance Sheet

Balance of valuation multiples compared to growth

High earnings/dividend yield

Margin of safety

Attractive Valuation

Page 11: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 11

Our Art of Stock Picking Supported by Science

Market Returns

Asset (Cash/Equity)Allocation

Right Sector Focus and Allocation

Stock Picking

EffectiveCash Levels

Long termMacro trend

WeakCorrelation

Source of High& Sustainable

Returns

AttractiveValuation

Superior Market ReturnsMore

of

Scie

nce

More

of

Art

Page 12: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 12

Jan

-99

Ma

y-9

9A

ug

-99

De

c-9

9A

pr-

00

Au

g-0

0N

ov-

00

Ma

r-0

1Ju

l-0

1N

ov-

01

Ma

r-0

2Ju

l-0

2N

ov-

02

Fe

b-0

3Ju

n-0

3O

ct-0

3F

eb

-04

Jun

-04

Se

p-0

4Ja

n-0

5M

ay-

05

Se

p-0

5Ja

n-0

6M

ay-

06

Au

g-0

6D

ec-

06

Ap

r-0

7A

ug

-07

De

c-0

7A

pr-

08

Jul-

08

No

v-0

8M

ar-

09

Jul-

09

No

v-0

9M

ar-

10

Jul-

10

No

v-1

0M

ar-

11

Jun

-11

Oct

-11

Fe

b-1

2Ju

n-1

2O

ct-1

2

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Outperformance by Cash Management

Outperformance (left axis) Nifty 50

Outperforming Nifty by Effective Cash Levels

Our cash/equity strategy (0 – 30%) has outperformed the market most of the times and only underperformed during peak of bull runs such as 1999-2000 and 2007-2008.

Negative returns only during peak of bull runs

Page 13: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 13

Sell Discipline

Fundamentals of business have deteriorated and our original assumptions

are no longer valid

Recent corporate actions that indicate diminished focus on creating

shareholder value

Price has gone beyond what’s warranted by fundamentals

Another stock with similar fundamentals (or valuation) but with much

attractive valuations (or fundamentals) has appeared on the horizon

Reducing exposure in the stock/sector or changing equity allocation

Page 14: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 14

Qualities We Look For In A Company

Our PE Edge enables us to effectively identify the below qualities in a company

Page 15: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 15

Top Down Elimination Process

Universe of 1600

companies

$ 2 mn - $ 50 bn. Total

capitalization of $ 1.25

trillion

150 companies

Market CapTop Down Elimination

Trailing PE: 26.6 x

Latest PB: 2.2 x

Avg Size: $ 776 mn

5-yr Avg ROE: 13.5%

5-yr Avg ROCE: 15.7%

Latest Div Yield: 1.5%

Key Average Ratios

Our Fishing Pond

“The pond we want to fish in is the one where all the fish are the high-return variety”

$ 16 mn - $ 4 bn. Total

capitalization of $ 98 billion

Trailing PE: 18.3 x

Latest PB: 3.6 x

Avg Size: $ 654 mn

5-yr Avg ROE: 26.4%

5-yr Avg ROCE: 28.3%

Latest Div Yield: 2.1%

Valuation as of Jan 7, 2013

Page 16: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 16

Indian Stock Universe

Although there are more than 6000 companies listed on major India stock exchanges, only about 1600 are frequently traded and have market cap of > $ 2 mn

Market Cap Range # Traded Companies w/ Mcap > $2 mn

Total Market Cap ($ mn)

Average Market Cap

($ mn)

Trailing 12 month P/Ex

Latest P/Bx

5-year Average ROE (%)

5-year Average

ROCE (%)

Latest Dividend Yield (%)

< $100 mn 986 33,807 34 24.0 1.8 10.7 13.6 1.7

$100 mn - 500 mn 335 77,694 232 30.7 1.7 15.3 16.5 1.4

$0.5 bn - 1 bn 108 74,059 686 32.3 4.7 17.7 19.8 1.1

$1 bn - 2 bn 65 90,265 1,389 26.1 1.5 19.1 18.8 1.6

$2 bn - 3 bn 33 82,839 2,510 22.5 4.0 21.4 22.3 1.4

$3 bn - 4 bn 14 48,478 3,463 29.1 8.2 30.8 32.6 1.0

> $4 bn 69 841,495 12,196 36.5 4.7 25.1 26.5 1.3

Total 1,610 1,248,638 776 26.6 2.2 13.5 15.7 1.5

Valuation as of Jan 7, 2013

Page 17: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 17

Our Targeted Stock Universe

Stocks above $4 bn are broadly covered to find significant mispricing. Our fishpond is about 150 companies with enough liquidity in the small to mid-cap range.

Note that 90% of the above companies have markep cap of between $50 mn and $3 bn. Majority (>80%) of our portfolio companies will be from this fishpond based on the management quality and financial parameters that we like. Above are their key ratios.

Market Cap Range # Traded Companies w/ Mcap > $2 mn

Total Market Cap ($ mn)

Average Market Cap

($ mn)

Trailing 12 month P/Ex

Latest P/Bx

5-year Average ROE (%)

5-year Average

ROCE (%)

Latest Dividend Yield (%)

< $100 mn 32 1,941 61 17.8 2.3 26.6 31.6 2.2

$100 mn - 500 mn 60 15,073 251 18.0 3.0 25.9 28.3 2.7

$0.5 bn - 1 bn 30 20,125 671 18.2 5.5 26.5 28.0 1.6

$1 bn - 2 bn 16 21,615 1,351 16.5 3.3 24.6 23.7 1.8

$2 bn - 3 bn 6 13,940 2,323 20.1 4.2 28.3 26.7 1.3

$3 bn - 4 bn 1 3,248 3,248 16.4 3.5 20.6 17.4 0.8

> $4 bn 5 22,208 4,442 29.0 6.8 33.0 27.9 0.6

Total 150 98,151 654 18.3 3.6 26.4 28.3 2.1

Page 18: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 18

Composition of Portfolio and Risk Mitigation

12 – 16* Stocks in $ 50 mn - $ 3 bn Market Cap Range

30-40% in 3 to 4 of ourHighest Conviction Ideas

40-60% in 9 to 12 ofhigh conviction ideas

0-30% liquidity** dependingOn market valuation level.

Less than 15% of portfolio in one stock at entry value

Less than 25% of portfolio in one/closely related sector/s

Less than 20% of portfolio in one business group

Boundaries

* Although majority of our portfolio (>80%) will comprise of stocks in the $50mn -$3bn market cap range, some portion (max 25%) could fall outside this range depending on attractiveness of available opportunities.

** We may trim partial position in stocks depending on market valuation (which drives our cash allocation) and individual stock valuation levels, though our core holdings would remain the same over the long term.

Page 19: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 19

Our Portfolio Flavour

As of October 24, 2013Our Portfolio Wtd

AvgCNX Midcap

Index Nifty Portfolio Sectors Weights

Average Market Cap (Crs) 5,313 9,611 83,042 Consumer 26%

TTM ROCE 35.7% 18.4% 16.7% NBFCs 22%

TTM ROE 33.7% 16.7% 14.6% Agriculture 21%

EPS CAGR 5 Yr (past) 41.0% 13.8% 11.0% Pharma 10%

EPS CAGR 3 Yr (past) 49.5% 21.8% 18.4% Manufacturing 9%

Net Sales CAGR 5 Yr (past) 28.5% 18.6% 15.7% Banks 8%

Net Sales CAGR 3 yrs (past) 33.1% 20.9% 17.1% Media 5%

Dividend Yield (%) 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 100%

Total D/E* 0.27 1.37 0.68

TTM EV/EBIDTA 11.9 14.5 12.1

TTM PE 18.7 22.3 18.0

P/BV 7.05 3.79 7.02

* D/E is calculated excluding financial companies

Current portfolio contains 14 stocks

Page 20: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 20

Contact Us

Manish Jain

Mobile: +91 98202 67828

Email: [email protected]

Samit Vartak, CFAChief Investment Officer (CIO)

Mobile: +91 9970473951

Email: [email protected]

Kuntal Shah

Mobile: +91 98210 44456

Email: [email protected]

Mumbai Office:112, Highway Commerce CenterI B Patel Road, Goregaon (East)Mumbai 400 063Tel : +91 22 2686 6210

Pune Office:North Ct Bldg, 2nd FloorOpp Joggers Park, Kalyani NagarPune 411 006Tel : +91 20 3052 3459

Pune Office:North Ct Bldg, 2nd FloorOpp Joggers Park, Kalyani NagarPune 411 006Tel : +91 20 3052 3459

Page 21: Quest for Outstanding Investments India dedicated, long only, equity advisory with mission to preserve the purchasing power of capital while also providing

Quest for Outstanding Investments 21

Risk Factors

Risk Factors ( for detailed risk factors refer to PPM) Investments will be done in Indian Rupee denomination and investment returns are exposed to Rupee movement. Securities investments are subject to market and other capital market related  risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the Portfolio will be achieved. The liquidity of the Portfolio’s investments is inherently restricted by trading volumes in the securities in which it invests. We do not plan to hedge currencies and shall provide Indian Rupee exposure with attendant risk and reward. 

Disclaimer Presentation has been prepared from sources and data that Axis believes to be reliable and Axis makes no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. This Fund Information has been prepared solely as preliminary Information to determine investor interest regarding the Fund. It may not be used or reproduced for any other purpose. An offer or solicitation will be made only through the Private Placement Memorandum (“PPM”) and Subscription Agreement, and will be subject to the terms and conditions contained in such documents. The Fund Information does not constitute an offer to buy any securities and may not be used or relied upon in connection with any offer or sale of securities.The rates of return and other financial information set forth in the Fund Information are based on unaudited draft reports provided by executives and  managers at the request of the Fund’s General Partner and does not reflect investment management fees or carried interest to be charged. Investment returns will be reduced by investment management fees, carried interest and other expenses charged by the General Partner, which will be detailed in the Fund’s PPM. The Fund Information is qualified in its entirety by the PPM, which will contain, among other things, a description of the risks of an investment in the proposed Fund. The investors should independently evaluate the investment risks and are solely responsible for their investment decisions. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. Axis Holdings undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date thereof.

Note For US InvestorsThe Participating Shares have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (“1933 Act”), or the securities laws of any state, and may not be offered, sold or otherwise transferred directly or indirectly in the U.S. or to or for the account or benefit of any U.S. Person as defined in Regulation S under the 1933 Act except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the 1933 Act and any applicable state laws. The Participating Shares are being offered outside the United States pursuant to the exemption from the registration requirements of the 1933 Act under Regulation S under the 1933 Act, and inside the United States in reliance on Regulation D promulgated under the 1933 Act. The Company will not be registered under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”), since Participating Shares will only be sold to U.S. Persons who are “qualified purchasers”, as defined in the 1940 Act or as otherwise consistent with Section 3(c)(7) of the 1940 Act. The Participating Shares offered herein have not been approved or disapproved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), any state securities commission or other regulatory authority, nor have any of the foregoing authorities passed upon or endorsed the merits of this offering or the accuracy or adequacy of this Memorandum. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offence.The Board does not intend to permit Participating Shares acquired by employee benefit plans subject to Title I of the United States Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, as amended ("ERISA Plans"), and other benefit plan investors to equal or exceed 25 per cent of the value of Participating Shares of any Fund. Accordingly each prospective investor will be required to represent and warrant as to whether he is a “benefit plan investor” for purposes of the plan asset regulations under ERISA. Some Funds are not offered or sold in the U.S. or for the account or benefit of U.S. Persons. Details are set forth in the PPM