Ratio Analysis Mini Case Model

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  • Chapter 13 Mini Case

    Input Data:2003 2004 2005

    Year-end common stock price $8.50 $6.00 $12.17 Year-end shares outstanding 100,000 100,000 250,000Tax rate 40% 40% 40%Lease payments $40,000 $40,000 $40,000

    Balance Sheets

    Assets 2003 2004 2005Cash and equivalents $9,000 $7,282 $14,000 Short-term investments $48,600 $20,000 $71,632 Accounts receivable $351,200 $632,160 $878,000 Inventories $715,200 $1,287,360 $1,716,480 Total current assets $1,124,000 $1,946,802 $2,680,112 Gross Fixed Assets $491,000 $1,202,950 $1,220,000 Less Accumulated Dep. $146,200 $263,160 $383,160 Net Fixed Assets $344,800 $939,790 $836,840 Total Assets $1,468,800 $2,886,592 $3,516,952

    Liabilities and equityAccounts payable $145,600 $324,000 $359,800 Notes payable $200,000 $720,000 $300,000 Accruals $136,000 $284,960 $380,000 Total current liabilities $481,600 $1,328,960 $1,039,800 Long-term bonds $323,432 $1,000,000 $500,000 Total liabilities $805,032 $2,328,960 $1,539,800 Common stock (100,000 shares) $460,000 $460,000 $1,680,936 Retained earnings $203,768 $97,632 $296,216 Total common equity $663,768 $557,632 $1,977,152 Total liabilities and equity $1,468,800 $2,886,592 $3,516,952

    Income Statements

    2003 2004 2005Net sales $3,432,000 $5,834,400 $7,035,600Costs of Goods Sold $2,864,000 $4,980,000 $5,800,000Other Expenses $340,000 $720,000 $612,960Depreciation $18,900 $116,960 $120,000Total Operating Cost $3,222,900 $5,816,960 $6,532,960Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) $209,100 $17,440 $502,640Less interest $62,500 $176,000 $80,000Earnings before taxes (EBT) $146,600 -$158,560 $422,640Taxes (40%) $58,640 -$63,424 $169,056Net Income before preferred dividends $87,960 -$95,136 $253,584EPS $0.880 ($0.951) $1.014 DPS $0.220 $0.110 $0.220 Book Value Per Share $6.638 $5.576 $7.909

    b. (1.) Calculate the 2005 current and quick ratios based on the projected balance sheet and income statement data.

    Calculated Data: Ratios Industry2003 2004 2005 Average

    Liquidity ratios Current Ratio 2.33 1.46 2.58 2.70 Quick Ratio 0.85 0.50 0.93 1.00

    IndustryAsset Management ratios 2003 2004 2005 Average Inventory Turnover 4.80 4.53 4.10 6.10 Days Sales Outstanding 37.4 39.5 45.5 32.00 Fixed Asset Turnover 9.95 6.21 8.41 7.00 Total Asset Turnover 2.34 2.02 2.00 2.50

    IndustryDebt Management ratios 2003 2004 2005 Average Debt Ratio 54.8% 80.7% 43.8% 50.0% Times Interest Earned 3.35 0.10 6.28 6.20 EBITDA Coverage Ratio 2.61 0.81 5.52 8.00

    IndustryProfitability ratios 2003 2004 2005 Average Profit Margin 2.6% -1.6% 3.6% 3.6% Basic Earning Power 14.2% 0.6% 14.3% 17.8% Return on Assets 6.0% -3.3% 7.2% 9.0% Return on Equity 13.3% -17.1% 12.8% 18.0%

    IndustryMarket Value ratios 2003 2004 2005 Average Price-to Earnings Ratio 9.66 -6.31 12.00 14.20 Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio 7.95 27.49 8.14 7.60 Market-to-Book Ratio 1.28 1.08 1.54 2.90 Book Value Per Share 6.64 5.58 7.91 na

    g. Perform a common size analysis and percent change analysis. What do these analyses tell you about Computron?

    See the worksheet with the TAB "Common Size and % Change"

    Du Pont Analysis ROE P.M. T.A.T.O.Equity MultiplierComputron 2003 13.3% 2.6% 2.3 2.21Computron 2004 -17.1% -1.6% 2.0 5.18Computron 2005 12.8% 3.6% 2.0 1.78

    Industry Average 18.00% 3.6% 2.5 2.00

    The first part of the case, presented in Chapter 3, discussed the situation that Computron Industries was in after and expansion program. Thus far, sales have not been up to the forecasted level, cost have been higher than were projected, and a large loss occurred in 2004, rather than the expected profit. As a result, its managagers, directors, and investors are concerned about the firm's survival.

    Donna Jamison was brought in as an assistant to Fred Campo, Computron's chairman, who had the task of getting the company back into a sound financial position. Computron's 2003 and 2004 balance sheets and income statements, together with projections for 2005, are shown in the following tables. Also, the tables show the 2003 and 2004 financial ratios along with industry average data. The 2005 projected financial statement data represent Jamison's and Campo's best guess for 2005 results, assuming that some new financing is arranged to get the company "over the hump."

    Jamison examined monthly data for 2004 (not given in the case), and she detected an improving pattern during the year. Monthly sales were rising, costs were falling, and large losses in the early months had turned to a small profit by December. Thus, the annual data look somewhat worse than final monthly data. Also, it appears to be taking longer for the advertising program to get the message across, for the new sales offices to generate sales, and for the new manufacturing facilities to operate efficiently. In other words, the lags between spending money and deriving benefits were longer than Computron's managers had anticipated. For these reasons, Jamison and Campo see hope for the companyprovided it can survive in the short run.

    Jamison must prepare an analysis of where the company is now, what it must do to regain its financial health, and what actions should be taken. Your assignment is to help her answer the following questions. Provide clear explanations, not yes or no answers.

    a. Why are ratios useful? What are the five major categories of ratios? Answer: See Chapter 13 Mini Case Show

    (2.) What can you say about the company's liquidity position in 2003, 2004, and as projected for 2005? We often think of ratios as being useful (1) to managers to help run the business, (2) to bankers for credit analysis, and (3) to stockholders for stock valuation. Would these different types of analysts have an equal interest in the liquidity ratios? Answer: See Chapter 13 Mini Case Show

    c. Calculate the 2005 inventory turnover, days sales outstanding (DSO), fixed assets turnover, operating capital requirement, and total assets turnover. How does Computron's utilization of assets stack up against other firms in its industry?

    d. Calculate the 2005 debt, times-interest-earned, and EBITDA coverage ratios. How does Computron compare with the industry with respect to financial leverage? What can you conclude from these ratios?

    e. Calculate the 2005 profit margin, basic earning power (BEP), return on assets (ROA), and return on equity (ROE). What can you say about these ratios?

    f. Calculate the 2005 price/earnings ratio, price/cash flow ratio, and market/book ratio. Do these ratios indicate that investors are expected to have a high or low opinion of the company?

    h. Use the extended Du Pont equation to provide a summary and overview of Computron's financial condition as projected for 2005. What are the firm's major strengths and weaknesses?

    i. What are some potential problems and limitations of financial ratio analysis? Answer: See Chapter 13 Mini Case Show

    j. What are some qualitative factors analysts should consider when evaluating a companys likely future financial performance? Answer: See Chapter 13 Mini Case Show

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  • Common Size Statements

    Balance Sheets 2003 2004 2005 Industry

    AssetsCash and equivalents 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%Short-term investments 3.3% 0.7% 2.0% 0.3%Accounts receivable 23.9% 21.9% 25.0% 22.4%Inventories 48.7% 44.6% 48.8% 41.2%Total Current Assets 76.5% 67.4% 76.2% 64.1%Net Fixed Assets 23.5% 32.6% 23.8% 35.9%Total Assets 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

    Liabilities and equityAccounts payable 9.9% 11.2% 10.2% 11.9%Notes payable 13.6% 24.9% 8.5% 2.4%Accruals 9.3% 9.9% 10.8% 9.5%Total current liabilities 32.8% 46.0% 29.6% 23.7%Long-term bonds 22.0% 34.6% 14.2% 26.3%Total common equity 45.2% 19.3% 56.2% 50.0%Total liabilities and equity 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

    Income Statements 2003 2004 2005 Industry

    Net sales 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Costs of Goods Sold 83.4% 85.4% 82.4% 84.5%Other Expenses 9.9% 12.3% 8.7% 4.4%Depreciation 0.6% 2.0% 1.7% 4.0%EBIT 6.1% 0.3% 7.1% 7.1%Less interest 1.8% 3.0% 1.1% 1.1%Earnings before taxes (EBT) 4.3% -2.7% 6.0% 5.9%Taxes (40%) 1.7% -1.1% 2.4% 2.4%Net Income before preferred dividends 2.6% -1.6% 3.6% 3.6%

    Common Size Analysis and Percent Change Analysis In common size analysis, all income statement items are divided by sales, and all balance sheet items are divided by total assets.

    In percent change analysis, all items are expressed as a percent change from the first year, called the base year, of the analysis.

    Common Size Analysis and Percent Change Analysis In common size analysis, all income statement items are divided by sales, and all balance sheet items are divided by total assets.

    In percent change analysis, all items are expressed as a percent change from the first year, called the base year, of the analysis.

  • Percentage Change Analysis

    Balance Sheets 2003 2004 2005

    AssetsCash and equivalents 0% -19.1% 55.6%Short-term investments 0% -58.8% 47.4%Accounts receivable 0% 80.0% 150.0%Inventories 0% 80.0% 140.0%Total Current Assets 0% 73.2% 138.4%Net Fixed Assets 0% 172.6% 142.7%Total Assets 0% 96.5% 139.4%

    Liabilities and equityAccounts payable 0% 122.5% 147.1%Notes payable 0% 260.0% 50.0%Accruals 0% 109.5% 179.4%Total current liabilities 0% 175.9% 115.9%Long-term bonds 0% 209.2% 54.6%Total common equity 0% -16.0% 197.9%Total liabilities and equity 0% 96.5% 139.4%

    Income Statements 2003 2004 2005

    Net sales 0% 70.0% 105.0%Costs of Goods Sold 0% 73.9% 102.5%Other Expenses 0% 111.8% 80.3%Depreciation 0% 518.8% 534.9%EBIT 0% -91.7% 140.4%Less interest 0% 181.6% 28.0%Earnings before taxes (EBT) 0% -208.2% 188.3%Taxes (40%) 0% -208.2% 188.3%Net Income before preferred dividends 0% -208.2% 188.3%

    RatiosCommon Size and % Change