Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System · the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, to establish a regional early warning system within a multi-hazard framework, and build capacities

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Foreword The Council of the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) is pleased to present the RIMES Master Plan 2010-2014 to our Member States, collaborating countries, development partners, and other stakeholders. This Master Plan details Member States and collaborating countries’ needs and basic requirements on end-to-end early warning. It, thus, guides RIMES work in the first five years of its operation in building Member State capacities for providing actionable warning information towards forearmed, forewarned, and resilient communities. Envisioned to translate RIMES mandate, this Master Plan focuses on improving data availability to increase forecast reliability and lead time; model development that incorporates new/emerging technologies and products of research to enhance effectivity of warning information; development of decision support tools for communicating disaster risks; and demonstrations and transfer of new/ improved technologies and tools to build Member State early warning capacities. The RIMES Executive Board, which was constituted by the RIMES Council, evolved this Master Plan through an assessment of critical gaps in end-to-end early warning and a series of consultations with Member States and collaborating countries. This inherent ownership by Member States and collaborating countries, thus, ensures its successful implementation. I convey my sincerest gratitude to all RIMES Member States and collaborating countries for their invaluable contributions in the development of this Master Plan. Dr. Shailesh Nayak Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences Government of India, and Chair, RIMES Council

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Contents 1. Introduction to RIMES 1

1.1 Background 1 1.2 Purpose and Objectives 2 1.3 Governance 2 1.4 Key Services 3

2. The Planning Process 4 3. Master Plan 2010-2014 5

3.1 Component 1: Establishment and Maintenance of Core Observing and Monitoring Stations

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3.2 Component 2: Provision of Tsunami Watch and Coastal Inundation Forecasts

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3.3 Component 3: Support to NMHSs in Provision of Localized Hydro-Meteorological Risk Information

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3.4 Component 4: Capacity Building in Early Warning at all Levels 14 3.5 Component 5: Research and Development 17 3.6 Overall Resource Requirements 18

4. Resources for Master Plan Implementation 19

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Acronyms AIT Asian Institute of Technology Danida Danish International Development Agency ESCAPE Evaluation System for Computing Accessibility and Planning Evacuation INCOIS Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services INSPIRE Internet-based Simulation Platform for Inundation and Risk Evaluation GPS Global Positioning System NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NTWC National Tsunami Warning Center PMO Port Meteorological Office RegCM Regional Climate Model RIMES Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia RTSP Regional Tsunami Service Provider UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific UNESCO/IOC United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Intergovernmental

Oceanographic Commission WMO World Meteorological Organization WRF Weather Research Forecasting

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1. Introduction to RIMES

1.1 Background The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) is an international and intergovernmental non-profit institution, owned and managed by its Member States, for building capacities in the generation and application of user-relevant early warning information. RIMES evolved from the efforts of 29 countries in Africa and Asia, in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, to establish a regional early warning system within a multi-hazard framework, and build capacities for preparedness and response to trans-boundary hazards, along the declarations of the Special ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting on the Aftermath of the Earthquake and Tsunami (6 January 2005, Jakarta), the Ministerial Meeting on Regional Cooperation on Tsunami Early Warning Arrangement (29 January 2005, Phuket), and the Second Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (November 2007, Delhi). RIMES was established by UNESCAP through projects implemented by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center from 2005-2010, and with funding support from the Royal Thai Government and Danida. RIMES became a distinct institution on 30 April 2009 through the signing by collaborating countries of the RIMES regional cooperation agreement. Bangladesh, Cambodia, Comoros, India, Lao PDR, Maldives, Mongolia, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste have signed the RIMES cooperation agreement (refer to Figure 1); the other 16 countries (Armenia, Bhutan, China, Indonesia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Somalia, Tanzania, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Yemen) are in various stages of agreement consideration and approval.

Figure 1: RIMES Member States and collaborating countries RIMES was registered with the United Nations, under Article 102 of the UN Charter, on 1 July 2009. RIMES operates from its regional early warning center, located at the campus of the Asian Institute of Technology in Greater Bangkok (Pathumthani), Thailand.

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1.2 Purpose and Objectives RIMES purpose is to provide early warning services, according to differing needs and demands of its Member States, for enhanced preparedness and response to, and mitigation of natural hazards. Its specific objectives are:

1) Facilitate establishment and maintenance of core regional observation and monitoring networks, and ensure data availability for early warning

2) Provide regional tsunami watch within the framework of UNESCO/IOC 3) Support NMHSs for providing localized hydro-meteorological risk information within the

framework of the World Meteorological Organization 4) Enhance warning response capacities at all levels (national to community) within each

national early warning framework RIMES provides a portfolio of options for Member States to avail from or contribute to any of the above objectives. 1.3 Governance RIMES consists of three permanent bodies:

The RIMES Council, composed of heads of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), and national scientific and technical agencies generating multi-hazard early warning information, empowered to make policy decisions, on behalf of governments, concerning regional early warning arrangements, for enhanced preparedness for, response to, and mitigation of natural hazards

The Secretariat, which carries out the decisions and tasks assigned by the Council, and

provides support to the Program Unit in managing the regional early warning center. Currently, the Government of Mongolia provides Secretariat services to RIMES.

The Program Unit, responsible for day-to-day operation and management of the regional

early warning facility, and the implementation of programs and activities. The Program Unit has financial and administrative autonomy through delegated powers and the financial and staff regulations, approved by the Council. The Program Unit is co-located with the RIMES regional early warning center.

Figure 2 provides RIMES’ organizational structure.

Figure 2: RIMES organizational structure

Council

Secretariat

Program Unit

Tsunami Watch Provision

Technical Support to NMHSs

Societal Applications

Program Management

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1.4 Key Services RIMES provides the following key services to its Member States:

1) Tsunami Watch Provision to National Tsunami Warning Centers, under UNESCO/IOC framework:

• Seismic, sea level, and deep ocean monitoring • Data exchange, processing and analysis, and archiving • Provision of earthquake alerts and regional tsunami bulletins

2) Hydro-Meteorological Research and Development Support to National Meteorological

and Hydrological Services, under WMO framework:

• Generation of localized and tailored: o severe weather and short-term weather and flood information for users’

contingency planning o medium-term weather and flood information for users’ logistics planning o seasonal climate outlook for users’ longer-term resource planning and

management • Analysis of risks to climate variability and change, and identification of risk

management and adaptation options • Development of decision-support tools • Development of new generation risk information products

3) Capacity Building of national and local level institutions on End-to-End Early Warning,

within each Member State’s early warning framework:

• Assistance in establishing and maintaining observing and monitoring stations that are of regional benefit

• Training of scientists, both in-country training and through secondment arrangement at RIMES regional early warning center

• Development of decision-support tools and their application • Application of tailored risk information at different time scales in planning and

decision-making • Strengthening national early warning provider and user interface • Enhancing community responses to early warning • Early warning system audit

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2. The Planning Process The first meeting of the RIMES Council on 30 April 2009 constituted an Executive Board to implement Council policies and decisions on resource mobilization, and formulate an action plan for providing cost-effective services to each Member State. The Board convened in November 2009 and, with inputs from the Program Unit, considered ongoing early warning efforts in the region, assessed gaps and needs of RIMES Member States and collaborating countries, and prepared the first draft 5-year Master Plan (2010-2014), detailing Member States and collaborating countries’ needs and basic requirements on end-to-end early warning. Subsequently, consultations with Member States and collaborating countries were made to confirm that programs and projects included in the Master Plan meet individual needs and requirements, and prioritize these for implementation. The second meeting of the Executive Board in April 2010 finalized the Master Plan, provided recommendations for resourcing and implementation, and endorsed the Master Plan 2010-2014 to the RIMES Council.

Executive Board Recommendations for Resourcing Master Plan Implementation

The Executive Board, in its second meeting in April 2010, recommended the following funding strategy for Master Plan implementation:

Establish a Program Fund from Member State voluntary contributions in support of lesser-developed Member States. A Ministers’ Consortium may be established to spearhead Program Fund creation. Seek donor support for less developed Member States, in line with donor development priorities. Periodic meetings with donors may be organized.

Support from other sources may come from:

Synergy with regional initiatives, such as with WMO regional associations, Specialized Meteorological Centers, UNESCO/IOC, UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, Water Forums, disaster management centers, etc. Member States’ technical capacities. This will reduce implementation cost, and facilitate sharing of data, forecast products, knowledge, and expertise.

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3. Master Plan 2010-2014 This Master Plan translates RIMES mandate and provides strategic direction for RIMES’ work in the first five (5) years of its operation. While RIMES’ long-term goal is forearmed, forewarned, and resilient communities, the five-year goal for 2010-2014 is the development of basic early warning capacity in each Member State. The following sections present the gaps/ unmet needs on end-to-end early warning in RIMES Member States and collaborating countries, RIMES role in addressing these gaps, specific objectives for 2010-2014, and expected outcomes and programs and projects under these objectives. A summary of resource requirements to implement this Master Plan is provided in the last part of this chapter. 3.1 Component 1: Establishment and Maintenance of Core Observing and Monitoring

Stations Rationale Data from dense observation network are ideally required for proper monitoring of atmospheric, sea/ocean, and geologic elements, and for assimilation into numerical predictions for the generation of forecasts (e.g. weather, tsunami, marine, etc.) and subsequent timely issuance of early warning information for disaster prevention. Currently, data shared globally is inadequate for prediction and generation of high-resolution forecast products. While establishment of key observation stations are a national responsibility, some observation stations generate data for regional benefit. Resource-deficient countries are often unable to establish observation stations that are of regional interest. RIMES can establish this kind of stations and, when host countries need assistance, share the responsibility of operating and maintaining these stations. Unmet Needs/ Gaps The expert meeting held in February 2005, which designed the tsunami early warning system, laid out the minimum number of seismic and sea level observing stations in the regional network (refer to Figures 3 and 4). Of the 15 real-time broadband seismic stations required to fill the huge gap to observe and monitor the seismically active Manila, Sulu, and Cotabato trenches, Sagaing and Red River faults, and the Andaman Thrust, four (4) have been established with support from UNESCAP. To complement this network, China, through the China Earthquake Administration, assisted Lao PDR and Myanmar by establishing two (2) broadband stations in each country. These stations, however, do not yet contribute data regionally. A total of 20 sea level stations are required to observe and monitor changes in sea level in the Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, Gulf of Thailand, South China Sea, and Celebes Sea. Of these, six (6) have been established, with support from UNESCAP and UNDP. The stations established by UNESCO/IOC in Sittwe and Moulmein complement the regional network.

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Figure 3: Regional network of seismic stations

Figure 4: Regional network of sea level stations

Eleven (11) deep ocean buoy-based sensors were also designed (refer to Figure 5) to observe and monitor changes in pressure in the Arabian Sea (2), Bay of Bengal (3), Andaman Sea (2), Gulf of Thailand (1), South China Sea (2), and Celebes Sea (1). The Thai Meteorological Department established one (1) deep ocean pressure gauge in the Bay of Bengal, with assistance from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Planned Established Being established

Planned Established Being established By national centers

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Figure 5: Regional network of deep ocean sensors

Table 1 shows existing capacities of countries in observing and monitoring severe weather events. Resource-deficient countries have sparse to non-existent surface, upper air, and radar observing and monitoring systems. Data communication is also a gap, as most systems still use manual recording and sending of data to data processing centers. In the Southwest Indian Ocean region, the present number of marine meteorological stations is few and unevenly distributed. Many of the coastal stations, if operational, are located inland, and may be unrepresentative of the marine environment. This is due to the historical focus on requirements for aviation and agriculture. No in-situ meteorological observations of the open sea currently exist. Apart from the Reunion Island, which has a well-established Port Meteorological Office (PMO) with a permanent staff, no other countries in the region provide efficient PMO services and modern facilities to Voluntary Observation Ships calling at ports. Beside the use of weather satellite images from geostationary and polar orbiting satellites for weather forecasting applications, few countries have capability to receive and process satellite images to obtain products, such as sea surface topography and roughness (e.g. wind and waves).

Proposed Established

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Table 1: Current capacities in generating localized warning information

Observation system Data commu-nication facilities

Ability to draw data

from global

network

Availabi-lity of

historical database

Numerical weather prediction

Long-lead precipita-

tion forecast-ing

Flood modeling

Down-scaling to generate

tailor-made forecasts

Interpret-ation and

translation into user-friendly

messages

Tsunami modeling and risk

assessment

Dissemina-tion system

Meteoro-logical

Hydrolo-gical

Upper air Marine, sea level

Seismic Trained man-

power

Compu-ting

facility

Armenia 3 n/a to assess Bangladesh 2 Bhutan Cambodia* 1 0 China 4 Kenya 3/5 Lao PDR* Maldives 2/5 5 Mozambique Myanmar 0/2 2/0 Nepal Pakistan Philippines Seychelles 0/1 Sri Lanka* Tanzania Thailand* Timor Leste Vietnam

Note: *for verification; Comparative rating in terms of percentage of optimum requirement: 5-100% (excellent); 4-80% (very good); 3-60% (satisfactory); 2-40% (needs improvement); 1-20% (poor); 0-0% (very minimal to non-existent); for lumped components: rating for first in the list/ rating for second in the list

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RIMES Role in Addressing Gaps RIMES shall facilitate resource mobilization, acquisition, and installation of observing and monitoring stations. Host countries shall be responsible for their operation and maintenance. RIMES may assist as required. RIMES shall develop a data sharing mechanism for the region. Already, a data exchange backbone has been established at the RIMES regional facility for data sharing among Member States. RIMES also facilitates the enlistment of observing and monitoring stations in global networks, for sharing data globally. Specific Objective: Data availability from critical observing and monitoring stations for improving early warning information Expected Outcomes:

1) Establishment of critical observing and monitoring stations 2) Improved observing data availability regionally and globally 3) Improved simulation products from RIMES early warning center 4) Improved early warning capacity of Member States

Programs, Program Costs, and Funding

Program Details Total budget (‘000 USD)

Funds committed (‘000 USD)

Funding requirement (‘000 USD)

1.1 Improving critical observing and monitoring facilities for early warning

1.1.1 Establishment of real-time broadband seismic stations in Bangladesh, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Tanzania, and Vietnam

1,755 540 1,215

1.1.2 Establishment of near real-time sea level stations in Bangladesh, China, Comoros, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Seychelles, Tanzania, Taiwan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam

1,900 0 1,900

1.1.3 Establishment of marine observing stations in Bangladesh, Maldives, Mozambique, Pakistan, Seychelles, and Tanzania

1,395 0 1,395

1.1.4 Establishment of automatic weather stations in Myanmar, Nepal, and Seychelles

1,265 0 1,265

1.1.5 Establishment of low-cost weather radar in Armenia, Kenya, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Tanzania

1,085 0 1,085

1.1.6 Establishment of automatic water level stations in Nepal

640 0 640

1.1.7 Establishment of glacier and glacial lakes monitoring system in Bhutan, Kenya, Nepal, and Pakistan

1,600 0 1,600

1.1.8 Establishment of lightning detection network in Bangladesh

400 0 400

1.2 Ensuring critical data availability for early warning

1.2.1 Telemetry for local stations in Nepal and Pakistan

60 0 60

1.2.2 Assistance in maintenance of core observing and monitoring stations in Maldives and Seychelles

66 0 66

1.2.3 Establishment of data sharing policy and mechanism

20 20 0

Total 10,186 560 9,626

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3.2 Component 2: Provision of Tsunami Watch and Coastal Inundation Forecasts Rationale UNESCO/IOC operational requirements for Regional Tsunami Service Providers (RTSPs) include the linking of earthquake and tsunami forecast information with local hazard and risk assessment and inundation models through National Tsunami Watch Centers (NTWCs) to provide coastal inundation forecasts for threatened communities (Tsunami Service Level 3). Inundation forecasts are useful in guiding preparedness activities, such as evacuation and mobilization of response resources for a tsunami emergency, to longer-term preparedness activities, such as risk awareness, emergency preparedness planning, evacuation drills, etc. Unmet Needs/ Gaps There have been a number of efforts on tsunami risk assessment by various external institutions. Among these are the efforts by the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute/ Norwegian Seismic Array in Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka. A key gap in these efforts is capacity building of partner institutions in risk assessment tools. The role of partner institutions is limited to providing data and receiving outputs from the project. UNESCAP has supported the development of tsunami risk assessment tools: low-cost survey methodology for generating seamless near-shore bathymetric, topographic, and exposure data; and an internet-based risk assessment tool, named INSPIRE. RIMES has also developed a computer-based evacuation mapping tool, named ESCAPE, using outputs from INSPIRE. These tools are yet to be transferred to RIMES Member States, and demonstrated in high-risk areas. RIMES Role in Addressing Gaps A key role that RIMES plays in the region is capacity building of Member States in end-to-end early warning. RIMES works with regional and global centers in developing low-cost technologies for tool development, provides a test bed for testing these tools for operational applications, transfers these technology and tools to Member States, and trains technical/ operational staffs in tool application. Specific Objective: Service level 3 tsunami services and availability of tools and trained personnel for coastal inundation warning. Expected Outcomes:

1) Availability of user-relevant tsunami risk information to NTWCs 2) Improved tsunami risk assessment capabilities in Bangladesh, Kenya, Maldives,

Mozambique, Myanmar, Philippines, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, and Vietnam 3) Improved coastal inundation forecasting capacity in Bangladesh and Philippines

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2.1 Capacity building in tsunami risk assessment and coastal inundation forecasting

2.1.1 Tool transfer and training on seamless bathymetric, topographic, and exposure data generation and preparation for Kenya, Myanmar, and Seychelles

285 95 190

2.1.2 Tool transfer and training on tsunami risk assessment for Bangladesh, Kenya, Maldives, Mozambique, Myanmar, Philippines, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, and Vietnam

600 180 420

2.1.3 Development, transfer, and training on coastal inundation model that integrates all coastal hazards for Bangladesh and Philippines

120 60 60

2.1.4 SOP development for tsunami warning in Myanmar and Tanzania

60 0 60

2.1.5 Common protocols with INCOIS for tsunami warning for Indian Ocean Member States

50 0 50

Total 1,115 335 780 3.3 Component 3: Support to NMHSs in Provision of Localized Hydro-Meteorological Risk

Information Rationale Disaster managers require long-lead high-resolution site-specific hydro-meteorological disaster risk information to guide targeted warning dissemination and response. Existing capacities within NHMSs, however, are able to generate forecast information that are too wide in spatial scope. Global climate centers have generated products from years of research that may be used in generating long-lead high-resolution site-specific hydro-meteorological disaster risk information. These products need to be tested and translated for operational use and application. An example is the Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh program, which developed the technology for 10-day rainfall forecast using outcomes of research by Colorado University and Georgia Institute of Technology (U.S.). The technology has been tested and transferred to Bangladesh Meteorological Department, including its application in flood forecasting and flood risk management. With increasing awareness of the potential impacts of climate change, it is realized that socio-economic sectors, including water, agriculture, fisheries, health, forestry, transport, tourism and energy, that are highly sensitive to weather and climate extremes such as droughts, floods, cyclones and storms, heat waves or cold waves, have to enhance the use of climate information. Decision-makers in these sectors are increasingly concerned by the adverse impacts of climate variability and change, but are not sufficiently equipped to make effective use of climate information to manage current and future climate risks, as well as ecosystems. Unmet Needs/ Gaps Potential research outputs are not systematically assessed and calibrated for enhancing operational forecast system performances, while potentially usable operational forecast products are not integrated into decision-making system for resource management and reducing disaster risks. Translation of products of research into operational forecast products and to a form that disaster risk managers can use, however, requires addressing also the following gaps in capacity:

a) Upgrading of observation networks (refer to Section 3.1)

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b) Upgrading of telecommunication systems to make data communication faster, but cheaper (refer to Section 3.1)

c) Linkages with other institutions, agencies, and user communities (e.g. agriculture and irrigation department), where information (e.g. rainfall data) usable for providing forecasts and warnings is available

d) Training of NMHS personnel on meteorological and climate data processing and analysis, including prediction

e) Training of intermediary users in forecast translation into impact outlooks and response options

f) Training of end users in risk information application

Capacities of countries in the above were shown earlier in Table 1. RIMES Role in Addressing Gaps RIMES can facilitate development/ enhancement of enabling mechanisms for countries to make full use of global information and services. Improvements in climate information also need to be matched with an effective interface between scientists, service providers and decision-makers. This is also a potential niche where RIMES could play a very crucial role in supporting NMHSs. RIMES can provide a test bed for translating research products into operational products for application. It can facilitate linkages for accessing information necessary for prediction and forecasting. RIMES can also provide training in numerical prediction and downscaling for generating tailored forecast products, in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization, and interpretation and translation of forecast products into user-friendly information. RIMES advocates for the seamless use of forecast products. RIMES will assist in building NHMS capacity wherever there is a gap in any of the following:

a) Capacity in the generation and application of weather forecast products b) Technology development and transfer, capacity building in, and application of medium-

range forecast products c) Technology development and transfer, capacity building in, and application of

extended-range forecast products d) Downscaling, capacity building in, and application of seasonal forecast products e) Analysis of observable trends, capacity building in, and application of climate change

information products, using analysis techniques with low and moderate resource requirements

Specific Objectives:

1) Enhanced weather and flood forecasting capacities 2) Development of hazard and risk assessment capacities 3) Decision-support system development

Expected Outcomes:

1) Improved availability of historical observing data in RIMES Member States 2) Improved capacity in generating tailored weather and flood forecast products 3) Capacity in marine forecasting in Maldives, Philippines, and Seychelles 4) Experience in the application of new forecast products in decision-making and/or

planning 5) Improved capacity in trans-boundary tropical cyclone warning 6) Hazard and risk mapping capacity in Armenia, Bangladesh, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar,

Nepal, Pakistan, and Seychelles

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7) Wind resource assessment capacity in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Seychelles, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam

8) Risk communication tools in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam 9) Sector-specific decision-support tools in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam 10) Experience in tool application in communicating risks and in decision-making





3.1 Provision of user-relevant weather and flood forecast products

3.1.1 Data integration in Philippines and Vietnam

44 0 44

3.1.2 Data rescue 240 0 240 3.1.3 Upgrading climate data management system in Bangladesh

300 0 300

3.1.4 Development of weather analysis software in Nepal

200 0 200

3.1.5 Development and pilot application of 10-day weather forecasts in Nepal and Philippines

1,200 0 1,200

3.1.6 Downscaling of global numerical products for improving lead times of forecast products in Armenia, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines, and Tanzania

1,500 0 1,500

3.1.7 Integration of enhanced severe weather forecasts into flashflood forecasting, and pilot application in Armenia, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Seychelles, and Vietnam

4,200 0 4,200

3.1.8 Integration of enhanced severe weather forecasts into coastal flood forecasting, and pilot application in Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, Seychelles, and Vietnam

3,000 0 3,000

3.1.9 Development and application of downscaled medium-range forecasts for coastal hazards and river basins in Armenia, Indonesia, Kenya, Maldives, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Seychelles, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam

7,800 0 7,800

3.1.10 Development and pilot application of long-lead riverine flood forecasts in Bangladesh, China, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan

3,600 0 3,600

3.1.11Development of customized forecast products in Armenia, Bhutan, Mongolia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Seychelles, and Vietnam

2,700 0 2,700

3.1.12 Development of high-resolution marine forecast products for Comoros, Maldives, Seychelles, and Timor-Leste

400 0 400

3.1.13 Capacity development in high-resolution marine forecasting in Maldives, Philippines, and Seychelles

600 0 600

3.1.14 Development of air instability index in Comoros

200 0 200

3.1.15 Mechanism development for regional online interaction of forecasters during tropical cyclone occurrence

72 72 0

3.2 Improving weather/climate-related risk knowledge

3.2.1 Development of lightning hazard and risk assessment capacity in Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, and Seychelles

800 0 800

3.2.2 Development of landslide hazard and risk assessment capacity in Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Seychelles

800 0 800

3.2.3 Development of hazard and risk assessment capacity in Armenia, Bangladesh, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, and

1,400 0 1,400

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Seychelles 3.2.4 Development of potential wind resource assessment capacity in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Seychelles, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam

1,600 0 1,600

3.3 Tool development

3.3.1 Capacity development in dispersion modeling in Bangladesh, Philippines, Seychelles, and Vietnam

800 0 800

3.3.2 Development and pilot application of risk communication tools in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam

800 0 800

3.3.3 Development and pilot application of sector-specific decision-support tools in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam

800 0 800

Total 33,056 72 32,984 3.4 Component 4: Capacity Building in Early Warning at all Levels Rationale An effective early warning system links technical agencies that generate warning information with people at risk. This end-to-end system involves capacities in:

1) Observation and monitoring 2) Data processing and analysis 3) Prediction and forecasting 4) Risk assessment 5) Potential impact assessment 6) Warning formulation and dissemination until the last mile 7) Preparation of response options 8) Community response, which is shaped by:

a) Resourced and practiced emergency response plans b) Risk awareness c) Mitigation programs

9) Receiving user feedback 10) System adjustment/ improvement

Figure 6 shows the linkages of these elements. Disasters expose a country’s strengths and weaknesses in these early warning elements.

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Figure 6: End-to-end early warning system Unmet Needs/ Gaps Periodic system audits are required to reveal gaps and ensure the functionality and reliability of early warning systems. Once a year audit is ideal for frequently occurring hazards; while once in two years audit would be required for less frequently occurring hazards. RIMES Role in Addressing Gaps RIMES can assist countries by providing technical guidance and facilitation in early warning system audits and capacity enhancement in areas of deficiency. RIMES can facilitate the creation or enhancement of enabling mechanisms for a people-centered early warning system, as espoused by the Hyogo Framework for Action. Specific Objectives:

1) Periodic early warning system audits for continuous improvement of national and regional early warning systems

2) Establishment of early warning systems 3) Capacity building of forecasters 4) Capacity building of users

Expected Outcomes:

1) Institutionalized early warning system audits 2) Operational early warning systems for drought and floods 3) Improved forecasting skills 4) Improved performance in the management of risks from earthquake, tsunami, and

weather/ climate-related hazards

Dissemination to at-risk communities

Observation/ monitoring

Warning formulation

Community response

Data analysis

Prediction Risk assessment

Emergency response plans Public education/ awareness Mitigation programs

Potential impact assessment

Preparation of response options

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5) Better prepared communities to multiple hazards Programs, Program Costs, and Funding




4.1 Early warning system audit

Institutional arrangement for and application of early warning system audit tool at national and regional levels

460 0 460

4.2 Capacity building in tsunami forecasting

Regional training on tsunami modeling (Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Seychelles, Vietnam)

90 0 90

4.3 Capacity building in climate prediction

4.3.1 Regional training on Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) (Armenia, Maldives, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam)

90 0 90

4.3.2 Regional training on RegCM (Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam)

90 0 90

4.4 Capacity building on operational forecasting and warning

4.4.1 On-the-job training in tsunami forecasting and warning

420 0 360

4.3.2 Intensive training on numerical weather prediction

280 0 240

4.5 Establishment of early warning systems

4.5.1 Establishment of drought early warning system in Armenia, Mozambique, Myanmar, and Vietnam

1,200 0 1,200

4.5.2 Regional river basin management to improve drought (and flood) forecasting capacity in Bangladesh

90 0 90

4.5.3 Development of community-based early warning system

600 0 600

4.5.4 Monitoring of small-scale earthquakes, including earthquake risk assessment in Bangladesh

910 0 910

4.6 Capacity building in decision-support system development

4.6.1 Regional training on remote sensing data application (Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Seychelles, and Vietnam)

90 0 90

4.7 Capacity building in earthquake and tsunami risk management

4.7.1 Demonstration and training on probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment in Indo-Myanmar region

100 0 100

4.7.2 Regional training on earthquake loss estimation

90 0 90

4.7.3 Reducing risks to tsunami and other natural hazards in low elevation coastal zones in Bangladesh, Kenya, Maldives, Mozambique, Myanmar, Pakistan, Seychelles, Tanzania, and Timor-Leste

2,100 0 2,100

4.8 Capacity building in climate risk management

4.8.1 Institutionalization of forecaster-user interface – Monsoon forums (Bangladesh, Nepal)

50 0 50

4.8.2 Training on interpretation, translation, and communication of probabilistic forecasts (Bangladesh, Mongolia, Myanmar, Philippines, Seychelles, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam)

210 0 210

4.8.3 Demonstration of use of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making (Armenia, Bangladesh, Mozambique, Nepal, Philippines, Seychelles)

1,500 0 1,500

4.8.4 Addressing coastal hazards, including cyclonic winds, storm surge, and beach erosion (Comoros, Kenya, Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, Seychelles, Tanzania, and Timor-Leste)

1,600 0 1,600

4.8.5 Addressing challenges from climate change: effects on trans-boundary rivers in

2,000 0 2,000

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Greater Himalayan region (Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam) 4.8.6 Certification for hazard-ready communities in Bangladesh, Kenya, Mongolia, and Myanmar

800 0 800

4.8.7 National training on climate risk management (Armenia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Seychelles, and Vietnam)

180 0 180

4.8.8 Risk reduction to flash floods and landslides in Armenia, Bhutan, China, Comoros, Lao PDR, Mauritius, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Seychelles, and Vietnam

3,600 0 3,600

4.8.9 Risk reduction to snowstorms in Mongolia and Nepal

600 0 600

4.8.10 Risk reduction to tornadoes and lightning strikes in Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Philippines, and Nepal

1,500 0 1,500

4.8.11 Drought risk reduction in Armenia, China, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam

1,500 0 1,500

Total 20,150 0 20,150 3.5 Component 5: Research and Development Rationale RIMES, as a resource center for Member States, should continuously engage in research and development activities to enable it to deliver cutting-edge technology and capacity building on new techniques and tools for analysis and application. The research agenda would be driven by the following:

a) Search for low-cost, but efficient technologies b) Rapid provision of increasingly accurate and more detailed warning information c) Improving last mile communication d) Timely and appropriate response of warning recipients

Unmet Needs/ Gaps RIMES regional facility’s tsunami watch unit has just been established and, in the next five years, would be focusing more on enhancing its capabilities to achieve Service Level 3 IOTWS operation. The regional facility’s hydro-meteorological risk information unit, however, has been fully operational, and would be able to focus more on research and development on emerging techniques, tools, and technologies to enable it to provide research and development support to NMHSs. Research areas proposed are listed below. The list may be added to, based on feedback from NMHSs on areas that they would be needing assistance on, as well as from users who can articulate their needs through various interactions with RIMES staff.

a) Interface of synoptic systems with major climate drivers: impact on rainfall b) Glacial retreat in the Himalayas: analysis of gaps in observing systems c) Use of tsunami run-up detectors, hydro-acoustic station, geodetic GPS stations, and

coastal cameras for tsunami warning d) Development and online delivery of RIMES products (e.g. risk maps) for use in land-use

planning, mitigation, etc.

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e) Monitoring changes in vulnerabilities and incorporating these into risk assessment tools

f) Changing risk patterns in a changing climate and disaster risk reduction planning RIMES Role in Addressing Gaps As a regional center, which is not involved in day-to-day operational issues compared to NMHSs, RIMES is in a position to engage in research and development, taking advantage of its partnerships with global and regional centers. RIMES can filter available research outputs from global centers and test them for operational use by NMHSs. Specific Objective: Enhanced understanding of weather and climate systems to improve forecasting and warning Expected Outcomes:

1) Improved forecasting and warning of tropical cyclones 2) Climate- and risk-informed adaptation strategies 3) Greater access to knowledge and products of research





5.1 Climate research 5.1.1 Local climate/ climate change trend studies in Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Seychelles, and Timor-Leste

150 0 150

5.1.2 Changing risk patterns in the context of a changing climate (Kenya, Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, and Seychelles)

180 0 180

5.1.3 Interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoons (Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam)

90 0 90

5.2 NMHS services Cost-recovery of specialized services (Armenia, Bangladesh-aviation, Mozambique, Philippines, Seychelles, and Vietnam)

150 0 150

5.3 Knowledge sharing

RIMES technical publication for dissemination to Member States

25 0 25

Total 595 0 595 3.6 Overall Resource Requirements

Component Total budget (‘000 USD)



1. Establishment and maintenance of core observing and monitoring stations

10,186 560 9,626

2. Provision of tsunami watch and coastal inundation forecasts 1,115 335 780 3. Support to NMHSs in provision of localized hydro-meteorological risk information

33,056 72 32,984

4. Capacity building in early warning at all levels 20,150 0 20,150 5. Research and development 595 0 595 Total 65,102 967 64,135

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4. Resources for Master Plan Implementation As recommended by the Executive Board, in its second meeting in April 2010, resources for Master Plan implementation shall come from:

a) RIMES Program Fund from Member State voluntary contributions, for supporting capacity building needs of lesser developed Member States, and for RIMES institutional development in the early years of its establishment

b) Donor support for building capacities of most needy Member States

The following mechanisms may be established for resource mobilization:

a) Consortium of Ministers for Early Warning to obtain highest level political endorsement and guidance. This may be composed of China, India, Thailand, and regional representations, on rotation basis, from lesser developed countries of Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

b) Donor Consortium

Plan implementation should tap expertise and experience of Member States, such as:

a) Sharing of resources: e.g. radar system between Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Lao PDR b) User-friendly database management: Armenia c) Technical support in hydro-meteorological forecasting systems: China d) NWP-based climate forecasting: China e) Training on general meteorology and operational hydrology: Kenya, Pakistan f) Training on remote sensing and satellite data application: China, India, Kenya g) NWP training: China, India, Kenya h) Cost recovery of specialized services in meteorology: China i) Community-based early warning systems: Bangladesh (flood), Philippines j) Early warning dissemination: China k) Community perception of climate change: Myanmar

Synergy with regional initiatives should also be considered, such as those with WMO regional associations, UNESCO/IOC, UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, etc.

Documents

Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System · the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, to establish a regional early warning system within a multi-hazard framework, and build capacities