SYSTEMS IDEAS FOR SYSTEMS IDEAS FOR SCIENTIFIC & SOCIETAL SCIENTIFIC & SOCIETAL

IMPERATIVES IN THE IMPERATIVES IN THE COASTAL OCEAN:COASTAL OCEAN:GULF OF MEXICO GULF OF MEXICO

EXAMPLE, INCLUDING BP EXAMPLE, INCLUDING BP OIL SPILLOIL SPILL

RES.PROF. CHRIS MOOERS, RES.PROF. CHRIS MOOERS, CEE/CECS/PSUCEE/CECS/PSU

{A PHYSICAL {A PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHER}OCEANOGRAPHER}

ATTRIBUTES OF OCEAN ATTRIBUTES OF OCEAN PREDICTIONS (I.E., PREDICTIONS (I.E.,

SIMULATIONS, SIMULATIONS, HINDCASTS, NOWCASTS, HINDCASTS, NOWCASTS,

& FORECASTS)& FORECASTS)

*TARGET:4D “OCEAN *TARGET:4D “OCEAN WEATHER”WEATHER”

*CONSTRAINED BY *CONSTRAINED BY OBSERVATIONS & PHYSICSOBSERVATIONS & PHYSICS

*COUPLED PDEs*COUPLED PDEs

*FORCED & FREE DYNAMICS*FORCED & FREE DYNAMICS

*SUPPORTS ECOLOGICAL *SUPPORTS ECOLOGICAL PREDICTIONPREDICTION

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

• INFORMATION SYSTEMS ARE NEEDED INFORMATION SYSTEMS ARE NEEDED FOR OCEAN STATE ESTIMATION FOR OCEAN STATE ESTIMATION (HISTORIC, SYNOPTIC, & FORECAST)(HISTORIC, SYNOPTIC, & FORECAST)

• COMPONENTS: OBSERVING COMPONENTS: OBSERVING SUBSYSTEMS, MODELING SUBSYSTEMS, SUBSYSTEMS, MODELING SUBSYSTEMS, AND DATA MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEMSAND DATA MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEMS

• PRESENT STATUS: EMBRYONIC, AD HOC, PRESENT STATUS: EMBRYONIC, AD HOC, & CHAOTIC WITHOUT SYSTEM DESIGN = & CHAOTIC WITHOUT SYSTEM DESIGN = STALLEDSTALLED

Final forecast product…Final forecast product…

• In the past, trajectory In the past, trajectory forecasts provided ony forecasts provided ony to the SSC who briefs to the SSC who briefs the FOSCthe FOSC

• Forecasts were Forecasts were distributed widely and in distributed widely and in a number of formats a number of formats (e.g. GIS shapefiles) to a (e.g. GIS shapefiles) to a much broader audience much broader audience than in previous than in previous incidentsincidents

• Effective communication Effective communication of results remains a key of results remains a key challengechallenge

IASNFSIASNFS

Intra-Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast SystemsIntra-Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast Systems

Dong S. KoDong S. Ko

Naval Research LaboratoryNaval Research Laboratory

NRL Intra-Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast SystemNRL Intra-Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast SystemIASNFSIASNFS

GridGridTopographyTopography from NRL DBDB2from NRL DBDB2

• Longitude : 98 W – 55Longitude : 98 W – 55 W; Latitude : 5 N – 31 NW; Latitude : 5 N – 31 N• Horizontal Resolution : 1/24 Degree (~ 6 km)Horizontal Resolution : 1/24 Degree (~ 6 km)• Vertical Resolution : 40 Layers (19 Layers on the shelf)Vertical Resolution : 40 Layers (19 Layers on the shelf)• Forced with NOGAPS Wind, Air Pressure and Heat Fluxes (Solar Radiation)Forced with NOGAPS Wind, Air Pressure and Heat Fluxes (Solar Radiation)• Coupled to NRL Global NCOMCoupled to NRL Global NCOM• Assimilation of Satellite Altimetry and MODIS SST/SSSAssimilation of Satellite Altimetry and MODIS SST/SSS• 140 River Discharges140 River Discharges

Ko, D.S., R.H. Preller, and P.J. Martin, An Experimental Real-Time Intra Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for Ko, D.S., R.H. Preller, and P.J. Martin, An Experimental Real-Time Intra Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for CoastalCoastal Prediction, Proceedings, AMS 5th Conference on Coastal Atmospheric & Oceanic Prediction & Processes, 97-100, 2003.Prediction, Proceedings, AMS 5th Conference on Coastal Atmospheric & Oceanic Prediction & Processes, 97-100, 2003.

NRL Ocean Nowcast/Forecast SystemNRL Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System

Ko, D.S., P.J. Martin, C.D. Rowley, and R.H. Preller, A real-time coastal ocean prediction experiment Ko, D.S., P.J. Martin, C.D. Rowley, and R.H. Preller, A real-time coastal ocean prediction experiment for MREA04, for MREA04, J. Marine SystemsJ. Marine Systems, 69, 17-28, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.02.022, 2008., 69, 17-28, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.02.022, 2008.

Real-Time Ocean Nowcast/ForecastReal-Time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast

3D Temperature3D TemperatureSalinity AnalysesSalinity Analyses

Surface ForcingSurface ForcingBC RiverBC River

InitializatioInitializationn-72 Hours-72 Hours

HindcasHindcastt

NowcastNowcast0 Hour0 Hour

ForecastForecast+72 Hours+72 Hours

IASNFS Real-Time PredictionIASNFS Real-Time Prediction

Sea Surface ElevationSea Surface Elevation

http://www7320.nrlssc.mil/IASNFS_WWW/http://www7320.nrlssc.mil/IASNFS_WWW/

Loop Current/Eddy frontal locationLoop Current/Eddy frontal locationbased on satellite thermo imagebased on satellite thermo image

IASNFS Real-Time PredictionIASNFS Real-Time Prediction

Sea Surface Salinity/CurrentSea Surface Salinity/Current

IASNFS Real-Time PredictionIASNFS Real-Time Prediction

Sea Surface SalinitySea Surface Salinityfor NOAA/AOML Ocean Acidification Estimationfor NOAA/AOML Ocean Acidification Estimation

EPA General Environment Model for HypoxiaEPA General Environment Model for Hypoxia

Peter M. Eldridge and Daniel L. RoelkePeter M. Eldridge and Daniel L. Roelke

IASNFS/Hypoxia ModelIASNFS/Hypoxia Model

Simulation of Phytoplankton DynamicsSimulation of Phytoplankton Dynamics

SUMMARYSUMMARY

*OCEAN PREDICTION HAS A *OCEAN PREDICTION HAS A BRIGHT FUTUREBRIGHT FUTURE

*ITS PRESENTLY IN *ITS PRESENTLY IN TRANSITION BETWEEN R&D TRANSITION BETWEEN R&D

AND “ROUTINE OPERATIONS”AND “ROUTINE OPERATIONS”

*IT SUPPORTS BASIC *IT SUPPORTS BASIC RESEARCH & SOCIETAL RESEARCH & SOCIETAL

APPLICATIONSAPPLICATIONS

CONCLUSION: THE WAY CONCLUSION: THE WAY AHEADAHEAD

• SYSTEM TESTBEDS FOR R&D (EVALUATE, SYSTEM TESTBEDS FOR R&D (EVALUATE, INTEGRATE, SUSTAINED BUT FLEXIBLE)INTEGRATE, SUSTAINED BUT FLEXIBLE)

• SYSTEMS ENGINEERING WITH SYSTEMS ENGINEERING WITH STAKEHOLDER GROUPS STAKEHOLDER GROUPS (OPERATIONS:REQUIREMENTS, METRICS, (OPERATIONS:REQUIREMENTS, METRICS, COST-BENEFITS, DESIGN, ETC.)COST-BENEFITS, DESIGN, ETC.)

• SYSTEMS SCIENCE WITH INTERFACES SYSTEMS SCIENCE WITH INTERFACES BETWEEN NATURAL SCIENCE & SOCIETY BETWEEN NATURAL SCIENCE & SOCIETY (SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS, STABILITY, (SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS, STABILITY, SUSTAINABILITY)SUSTAINABILITY)