Rockhampton Regional Council Planning Assumptions Report

Rockhampton Regional Council Planning Assumptions Report Version 2, June 2014

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Executive Summary

This Planning Assumptions Report (PAR) contains the planning assumptions and growth projections underpinning the Priority Infrastructure Plan (PIP) prepared by Rockhampton Regional Council.

This Planning Assumptions Report (PAR) has been scoped to:

• document the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the Planning Assumptions Model (PAM), dwelling, population, gross floor area (GFA) and employment planning assumptions and the timing of development (development sequence);

• present and discuss dwelling, population, GFA, employment projections and development sequence; and

• identify the Priority Infrastructure Area (PIA);

The planning assumptions are critical elements underpinning the Priority Infrastructure Plan (PIP). Their purpose is to provide a logical and consistent basis for detailed infrastructure planning within network catchments and state assumptions about the type, scale, location and timing of future development and subsequent population and employment growth. The PAR applies to all land within the boundaries of Rockhampton Regional Council (as set out within the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme), and demonstrates how the strategic outcomes of the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme are to be implemented at the local level. The planning period for the PAR is 17 years to 2031.

Methodology

To guide the process of developing planning assumptions for the Rockhampton Regional Council PIP, a detailed, robust and transparent methodology has been adopted consisting of seven key steps. The seven steps are;

Step 1 – Existing Land Use and Development Assumptions

Step 2 – Future Land Use Assumptions

Step 3 – Ultimate Development Capacity Analysis

Step 4 – Development Sequencing Analysis

Step 5 – Priority Infrastructure Area

Step 6 – Growth Projections

Step 7 – Planning Assumptions Report

The Rockhampton region resident population growth projections are benchmarked against Queensland Government 2008 High Series population projections. Residential development sequencing and population growth projections are guided by the sub-regional allocation of population growth for the former Rockhampton City, Fitzroy and Mount Morgan Local Government areas.

Rockhampton Regional Council – Planning Assumptions Report Version 2 | Page i

Priority Infrastructure Area

The Priority Infrastructure Area (PIA) identifies sufficient land to accommodate forecast growth to 30 June 2031. The PIA is a two dimensional extent consisting of multiple geographically discreet areas and is to read in combination with development sequencing assumptions detailed in Appendix L. The PIA is shown in Appendix M.

Population

As of 30 June 2012, the estimated resident population (ERP) of the Rockhampton region is modelled in the PAM to be 83,992 persons with a non-resident population (NRP) of 4,958 persons and a total population (ERP plus NRP) of 88,951 persons. By 2031, it is projected that the total population will be 118,630 persons. As shown in Figure E.1, the resident population of the Rockhampton Regional Council (RRC) area is projected in the PAM to grow slightly above the 2008 High Series population projection and somewhat in line with 2013 High Series population projection.

At a sub-regional level, the Mount Morgan area is projected to grow in line with 2008 Medium Series population projections and Rockhampton City and Fitzroy areas are projected to grow above 2008 Medium Series population projections.

A summary of population projections at a sub-regional scale is shown in Table E.1. A summary of population inside and outside the PIA is shown in Table E.2.

Figure E.1 - Planning Assumptions Model and Queensland Government ERP Projections

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Pers

ons

2008 Medium Series ERP Projection 2013 Medium Series ERP Projection

2008 High Series ERP Projection 2013 High Series ERP Projection

PAM ERP Projection

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Table E.1 - Planning Assumptions Model and Queensland Government ERP Projection Comparison

2012 (Existing) 2016 2021 2026 2031 Growth

Rate % ^

RRC Growth Share %

(2012-2031)

Rockhampton City Area

Planning Assumptions Model 66,006 70,654 75,473 79,950 82,670

1.2% 64.1% 2008 Medium Series Projection 67,430 69,436 71,771 73,885 75,930

Difference -1,424 (-2.1%)

1,218 (1.8%)

3,702 (5.2%)

6,065 (8.2%)

6,740 (8.9%)

Fitzroy Area



Difference 1,121 (8.2%)

2,916 (19.4%)

3,099 (18.9%)

4,461 (25%)

4,613 (23.8%)

Mount Morgan Area



Difference -248 (-7.3%)

-292 (-8.4%)

-367 (-10.4%)

-441 (-12.2%)

-354 (-9.6%)

RRC LGA


1.4% 100.0% 2008 High Series Projection 85,805 90,122 94,936 99,683 104,393


1,660 (1.8%)

3,213 (3.4%)

5,775 (5.8%)

5,576 (5.3%)

Former RRC LGA (Including Livingstone Shire Council Area)


1.8% 2008 High Series Projection 123,409 131,714 142,343 153,483 164,745


1,324 (1%)

321 (0.2%)

2,883 (1.9%)

1,677 (1%)

^Average annual population growth rate between 2012 and 2031

Rockhampton Regional Council – Planning Assumptions Report Version 2 | Page iii

Table E.2 - Population Summary

2012 (Existing) 2016 2021 2026 2031

Total ERP in PIA 74,545 82,037 88,288 95,131 99,643

Total ERP Outside PIA 9,447 9,744 9,861 10,327 10,327

Total Non-Resident Population 4,958 5,902 7,140 7,900 8,660

Total RRC Population Projection (ERP plus NRP) 88,951 97,683 105,289 113,357 118,630

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Employment

As of 30 June 2012, the number of employed persons in urban based employment in the Rockhampton region is modelled in the PAM to be 34,036. By 2031, it is projected that the total urban based employment in the Rockhampton Region will be 60,783 persons. Figure E.2 below shows a comparison between employment and population projections (ERP plus NRP).

Figure E.2 - RRC Population and Employment Projections

A summary of employment projections at a sub-regional scale and inside and outside the PIA is shown in Table E.3. Employment projections for sub-regional areas are shown in Figure E.3.

Table E.3 - Employment Projection Summary

2012

(Existing) 2016 2021 2026 2031

Employment Projection by Sub-Regional Area Rockhampton City Area Employment 31,538 37,170 41,150 44,292 46,298 Fitzroy Area Employment 1,908 2,968 5,954 10,545 13,895 Mount Morgan Area Employment 590 590 590 590 590

Employment Projection Summary Total Employment in PIA 33,106 39,798 46,722 54,385 59,741 Total Employment Outside PIA 929 929 971 1,042 1,042 Total RRC Employment 34,036 40,728 47,694 55,427 60,783

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Pers

ons

RRC Population Projection (ERP plus NRP) RRC Employment Projection

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Figure E.3 - Employment Projections for Sub-Regional Areas

As shown in Figure E.4, it is projected that retail and industrial development will drive employment growth, with steady growth in commercial based employment.

Figure E.4 - Employment Projections by Employment Category

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Empl

oyee

s

Rockhampton City Area Employment Fitzroy Area Employment

Mount Morgan Area Employment

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Empl

oyee

s

Retail Commercial Industrial Community Purposes

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Achieved Density

A comparison of the maximum possible dwelling per hectare yield and the average dwelling yield achieved in the PAM on residential greenfield land (> 2,500m2) is shown in Table E.4.

Table E.4 - Comparison Between Maximum Possible Dwelling Yield and Average Achieved Dwelling Yield for Greenfield Residential Land

QPP Residential Zone

Maximum Possible Yield (dwellings/ha of net developable

area)

Average Yield Achieved in PAM

(dwellings/ha of net developable area)

Average Achieved Lot

Size Per Dwelling (m2)

Low density residential 15.3 11.7 855 Medium density residential 17.4 16.0 625 High density residential 610.0 610.0 16 Emerging community 15.3 11.3 883 Rural residential 0.5 0.5 20,000

Rockhampton Regional Council – Planning Assumptions Report Version 2 | Page vii

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 SHORT TITLE AND COMMENCEMENT .............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 THE ROCKHAMPTON REGION ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 ROLE AND PURPOSE OF THE PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS ...................................................................................... 2 1.4 ROLE AND PURPOSE OF THE PRIORITY INFRASTRUCTURE AREA ............................................................................ 2

2. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................... 3

2.1 OVERARCHING PROCESS .............................................................................................................................. 3 2.2 STEP 1 – EXISTING LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT ASSUMPTIONS ....................................................................... 4

2.2.1 Existing Dwellings ............................................................................................................................. 5 2.2.2 Existing Resident and Non-Resident Population ............................................................................... 6 2.2.3 Existing Gross Floor Area .................................................................................................................. 7 2.2.4 Existing Employment ......................................................................................................................... 8

2.3 STEP 2 – FUTURE LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................................... 9 2.4 STEP 3 – ULTIMATE DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY ANALYSIS .................................................................................. 10

2.4.1 Development Constraints ................................................................................................................ 10 2.4.2 Internal Non-Developable Area Assumptions for Greenfield Land ................................................. 13 2.4.3 Development Density Assumptions................................................................................................. 14 2.4.4 Development Application and Approvals ........................................................................................ 14 2.4.5 Ultimate Dwelling Capacity ............................................................................................................ 15 2.4.6 Ultimate Population Capacity ......................................................................................................... 16 2.4.7 Ultimate Gross Floor Area Capacity ................................................................................................ 17 2.4.8 Ultimate Employment Capacity ...................................................................................................... 18

2.5 STEP 4 – DEVELOPMENT SEQUENCING ANALYSIS ............................................................................................ 20 2.5.1 Guiding Principles ........................................................................................................................... 21 2.5.2 Sub-Regional Allocation of Resident Population Growth ................................................................ 21 2.5.3 Development Probability Analysis .................................................................................................. 22 2.5.4 Residential Development Sequencing ............................................................................................. 25 2.5.5 Non-Residential Development Sequencing ..................................................................................... 25 2.5.6 Sequencing Ground-Truthing .......................................................................................................... 26

2.6 STEP 5 – PRIORITY INFRASTRUCTURE AREA ................................................................................................... 27 2.7 STEP 6 – GROWTH PROJECTIONS ................................................................................................................ 28 2.8 STEP 7 – PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS REPORT .................................................................................................. 29

3. CENTRAL QUEENSLAND UNIVERSITY ROCKHAMPTON PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT AREA ........................ 30

3.1 RESIDENTIAL GROWTH .............................................................................................................................. 30 3.1.1 Lot 1/RP613177 (Former CSIRO Site) .............................................................................................. 31 3.1.2 Lot 70/LN2378 (CQU Rockhampton Site) ........................................................................................ 31

3.2 NON-RESIDENTIAL GROWTH ...................................................................................................................... 32 3.3 SEQUENCING ........................................................................................................................................... 32

4. DWELLING AND POPULATION PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................... 33

4.1 ESTIMATED RESIDENT AND NON-RESIDENT POPULATION ................................................................................. 33 4.2 BASE YEAR (2012) ................................................................................................................................... 34

4.2.1 Population ....................................................................................................................................... 34 4.2.2 Dwellings ......................................................................................................................................... 35

4.3 GROWTH PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................................................. 37

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4.3.1 2016 Projection ............................................................................................................................... 37 4.3.2 2021 Projection ............................................................................................................................... 39 4.3.3 2026 Projection ............................................................................................................................... 41 4.3.4 2031 Projection ............................................................................................................................... 43

4.4 ULTIMATE DEVELOPMENT .......................................................................................................................... 45

5. GROSS FLOOR AREA AND EMPLOYMENT PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS ................................................... 59

5.1 BASE YEAR (2012) ................................................................................................................................... 59 5.1.1 Employment .................................................................................................................................... 59 5.1.2 Gross Floor Area .............................................................................................................................. 59

5.2 GROWTH PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................................................. 60 5.2.1 2016 Projection ............................................................................................................................... 60 5.2.2 2021 Projection ............................................................................................................................... 61 5.2.3 2026 Projection ............................................................................................................................... 62 5.2.4 2031 Projection ............................................................................................................................... 63

5.3 ULTIMATE DEVELOPMENT .......................................................................................................................... 64

6. PRIORITY INFRASTRUCTURE AREA ...................................................................................................... 75

7. SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................... 76

7.1 POPULATION ........................................................................................................................................... 76 7.2 EMPLOYMENT ......................................................................................................................................... 80 7.3 ACHIEVED DENSITY ................................................................................................................................... 83

APPENDIX A

DENSITY ASSUMPTIONS TABLE

APPENDIX B

ZONING

APPENDIX C

PRECINCTS

APPENDIX D

BUILDING HEIGHTS

APPENDIX E

PAM REPORTING AREAS

APPENDIX F

CONSTRAINTS

APPENDIX G

ULTIMATE DWELLING CAPACITY

APPENDIX H

ULTIMATE POPULATION CAPACITY

APPENDIX I

ULTIMATE GFA CAPACITY

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APPENDIX J

ULTIMATE EMPLOYMENT CAPACITY

APPENDIX K

DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY

APPENDIX L

DEVELOPMENT SEQUENCING ASSUMPTIONS

APPENDIX M

PRIORITY INFRASTRUCTURE AREA

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Table Index

TABLE 1 - DWELLING AND POPULATION REPORTING CATEGORIES AND CORRESPONDING QPP USE DEFINITIONS ........................... 5 TABLE 2 - EXISTING DWELLING OCCUPANCY RATE ASSUMPTIONS ......................................................................................... 6 TABLE 3 - GFA AND EMPLOYMENT REPORTING CATEGORIES AND CORRESPONDING QPP USE DEFINITIONS ................................. 7 TABLE 4 - QPP USE DEFINITIONS AND EMPLOYEE TO GFA RATIO ASSUMPTIONS ..................................................................... 8 TABLE 5 - DEVELOPMENT CONSTRAINT ASSUMPTIONS ...................................................................................................... 11 TABLE 6 - INTERNAL NON-DEVELOPABLE AREA ASSUMPTIONS FOR GREENFIELD LAND ............................................................ 13 TABLE 7 - ULTIMATE DWELLING OCCUPANCY RATE ASSUMPTIONS ...................................................................................... 16 TABLE 8 - QPP ZONES AND EMPLOYEE TO GFA RATIO ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................. 18 TABLE 9 - DEVELOPMENT SEQUENCE TIMEFRAMES .......................................................................................................... 20 TABLE 10 - DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY ANALYSIS CRITERIA .............................................................................................. 23 TABLE 11 - CQU PDA DWELLING OCCUPANCY RATE ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................... 30 TABLE 12 - ASSUMED DWELLING GROWTH ON LOT 1/RP613177 (FORMER CSIRO SITE) ...................................................... 31 TABLE 13 - ASSUMED POPULATION GROWTH ON LOT 1/RP613177 (FORMER CSIRO SITE) ................................................... 31 TABLE 14 - ASSUMED DWELLING GROWTH ON LOT 70/LN2378 (CQU ROCKHAMPTON SITE) ................................................ 31 TABLE 15 - ASSUMED POPULATION GROWTH ON LOT 70/LN2378 (CQU ROCKHAMPTON SITE) ............................................. 31 TABLE 16 - CQU PDA EMPLOYEE TO GFA RATIO ASSUMPTIONS ....................................................................................... 32 TABLE 17 - ASSUMED GFA (M2) GROWTH ON LOT 70/LN2378 (CQU ROCKHAMPTON SITE) ................................................. 32 TABLE 18 - ASSUMED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ON LOT 70/LN2378 (CQU ROCKHAMPTON SITE) ........................................... 32 TABLE 19 - EXISTING AND PROJECTED DWELLINGS ........................................................................................................... 47 TABLE 20 - EXISTING AND PROJECTED POPULATION ......................................................................................................... 52 TABLE 21 - EXISTING AND PROJECTED NON-RESIDENTIAL GROSS FLOOR AREA (M2) ............................................................... 65 TABLE 22 - EXISTING AND PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT ........................................................................................................ 70 TABLE 23 - PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS MODEL AND QUEENSLAND GOVERNMENT ERP PROJECTION COMPARISON ....................... 78 TABLE 24 - POPULATION SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 79 TABLE 25 – QUEENSLAND GOVERNMENT ERP PROJECTION SUMMARY ............................................................................... 79 TABLE 26 - EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... 80 TABLE 27 - SUB-REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF SUB-REGIONAL ERP ............................................................ 82 TABLE 28 - COMPARISON BETWEEN MAXIMUM POSSIBLE DWELLING YIELD AND AVERAGE ACHIEVED DWELLING YIELD FOR

GREENFIELD RESIDENTIAL LAND ........................................................................................................................... 83

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Figure Index

FIGURE 1 – EXISTING (2012) ERP INSIDE THE PIA BY REPORTING AREA .............................................................................. 34 FIGURE 2 - EXISTING (2012) DWELLING MIX WITHIN THE ROCKHAMPTON REGIONAL COUNCIL AREA ....................................... 35 FIGURE 3 - EXISTING (2012) DWELLING MIX WITHIN THE PRIORITY INFRASTRUCTURE AREA .................................................... 36 FIGURE 4 - EXISTING (2012) TO 2016 POPULATION GROWTH (ERP) INSIDE THE PIA BY REPORTING AREA ................................ 37 FIGURE 5 - 2016 DWELLING MIX WITHIN THE ROCKHAMPTON REGIONAL COUNCIL AREA ....................................................... 38 FIGURE 6 - 2016 TO 2021 POPULATION GROWTH (ERP) INSIDE THE PIA BY REPORTING AREA ............................................... 39 FIGURE 7 - 2021 DWELLING MIX WITHIN THE ROCKHAMPTON REGIONAL COUNCIL AREA ....................................................... 40 FIGURE 8 - 2021 TO 2026 POPULATION GROWTH (ERP) INSIDE THE PIA BY REPORTING AREA ............................................... 41 FIGURE 9 - 2026 DWELLING MIX WITHIN THE ROCKHAMPTON REGIONAL COUNCIL AREA ....................................................... 42 FIGURE 10 - 2026 TO 2031 POPULATION GROWTH (ERP) INSIDE THE PIA BY REPORTING AREA ............................................. 43 FIGURE 11 - 2031 DWELLING MIX WITHIN THE ROCKHAMPTON REGIONAL COUNCIL AREA ..................................................... 44 FIGURE 12 - ULTIMATE POPULATION CAPACITY (ERP) BY REPORTING AREA (WHERE ERP > 500) ............................................ 45 FIGURE 13 - ULTIMATE DWELLING MIX WITHIN THE ROCKHAMPTON REGIONAL COUNCIL AREA ............................................... 46 FIGURE 14 - EXISTING (2012) URBAN BASED EMPLOYMENT INSIDE THE PIA BY REPORTING AREA............................................ 59 FIGURE 15 - EXISTING (2012) TO 2016 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH INSIDE THE PIA BY REPORTING AREA ..................................... 60 FIGURE 16 - 2016 TO 2021 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH INSIDE THE PIA BY REPORTING AREA ..................................................... 61 FIGURE 17 - 2021 TO 2026 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH INSIDE THE PIA BY REPORTING AREA ..................................................... 62 FIGURE 18 - 2026 TO 2031 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH INSIDE THE PIA BY REPORTING AREA ..................................................... 63 FIGURE 19 - ULTIMATE EMPLOYMENT CAPACITY BY REPORTING AREA (WHERE EMPLOYEES > 200) .......................................... 64 FIGURE 20 - PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS MODEL AND QUEENSLAND GOVERNMENT ERP PROJECTIONS ....................................... 76 FIGURE 21 - PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS MODEL AND 2008 QUEENSLAND GOVERNMENT SUB-REGIONAL ERP PROJECTIONS ......... 77 FIGURE 22 - ERP PROJECTIONS BY DWELLING TYPE ......................................................................................................... 77 FIGURE 23 - RRC POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS ....................................................................................... 80 FIGURE 24 - EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR SUB-REGIONAL AREAS .................................................................................. 81 FIGURE 25 - EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY EMPLOYMENT CATEGORY ................................................................................ 81

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Definitions, Abbreviations and Acronyms

Term Definition

ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

Base year 30 June 2012

CQU Central Queensland University

ERP The Estimated Resident Population is the estimated number of persons whose principal place of residence is within the Rockhampton Regional Council area.

Fitzroy Area Former Fitzroy Shire Council area

GIA Gracemere Industrial Area

Mount Morgan Area Former Mount Morgan Shire Council area

Non-resident dwelling Dwellings that contain non-resident population, including hospitals, hotels, relocatable home parks, rooming accommodation, short-term accommodation and tourist parks.

NRP

The Non-Resident Population is the estimated number of persons who reside in non-resident accommodation, including hospitals, hotels, relocatable home parks, rooming accommodation, short-term accommodation and tourist parks.

PAM Rockhampton Regional Council Planning Assumptions Model

PAR Rockhampton Regional Council Planning Assumptions Report

PDA Priority Development Area

PIA Priority Infrastructure Area

PIP Priority Infrastructure Plan

Projection cohort Five year projection cohorts from 30 June

QPP Queensland Planning Provisions

Resident dwelling Dwellings that contain resident population, including dwelling houses, dual occupancies, multiple dwellings, residential care facilities and retirement facilities.

Rockhampton City Area Former Rockhampton City Council area

RRC Rockhampton Regional Council

Ultimate development capacity

The maximum development yield planned for under the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme for land parcels having regard to allowable uses, development densities, lot size, internal road, park and drainage allowances, development constraints and development approvals.

Urban based employment

Employment within existing urban employment generating development. It excludes rural and mining based employment not located in an urban area or building.

Rockhampton Regional Council – Planning Assumptions Report Version 2 | Page xiii

1. Introduction

This Planning Assumptions Report (PAR) contains the planning assumptions and growth projections underpinning the Priority Infrastructure Plan (PIP) prepared by Rockhampton Regional Council.

This Planning Assumptions Report (PAR) has been scoped to:

• document the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the Planning Assumptions Model (PAM), dwelling, population, gross floor area (GFA) and employment planning assumptions and the timing of development (development sequence);

• present and discuss dwelling, population, GFA, employment projections and development sequence; and

• identify the Priority Infrastructure Area (PIA);

1.1 Short Title and Commencement

1. This document may be cited as the Rockhampton Regional Council Planning Assumptions Report Version 2, 2014 (the PAR).

2. The PAR informs the Priority Infrastructure Plan which forms Part 4 of the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme.

1.2 The Rockhampton Region

Located in the heart of Central Queensland, the Rockhampton Region is located approximately 600km north of Brisbane, and approximately 300km south of Mackay. The region spans an area of approximately 6,600km2 with the City of Rockhampton as a main service centre for the Central Queensland region. The Rockhampton region is strategically located at the junction of the Bruce, Capricorn and Burnett Highways, between Gladstone to the south, Mackay to the north and Emerald to the west. The Rockhampton Region includes the three main urban areas of Rockhampton, Gracemere and Mount Morgan, significant rural areas (including townships), and national parks.

Rockhampton Regional Council – Planning Assumptions Report Version 2 | Page 1

1.3 Role and Purpose of the Planning Assumptions

The planning assumptions are critical elements underpinning the Priority Infrastructure Plan (PIP). Their purpose is to provide a logical and consistent basis for detailed infrastructure planning within network catchments and state assumptions about the type, scale, location and timing of future development and subsequent population and employment growth. Combined with the desired standards of service they assist in the development of the plans for trunk infrastructure and form the basis for the calculation of infrastructure charges and additional infrastructure cost assessments.

The PAR underpins the Priority Infrastructure Plan and has been drafted in accordance with the Sustainable Planning Act 2009 (SPA) and SPA Statutory Guideline 01/11. The PAR applies to all land within the boundaries of Rockhampton Regional Council (as set out within the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme), and demonstrates how the strategic outcomes of the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme are to be implemented at the local level. This includes how Council proposes to achieve strategic dwelling targets and other key population and employment development policies identified in the strategic plan.

The planning period for the PAR is 17 years to 2031. This long term planning is required to provide for the most efficient and effective development of identified land and the provision of future infrastructure.

1.4 Role and Purpose of the Priority Infrastructure Area

The Priority Infrastructure Area (PIA) details Rockhampton Regional Council’s intent to sequence the supply of trunk infrastructure to accommodate anticipated urban development over the next 17 years in the most efficient way. The PIA is a two dimensional extent and is to be read in combination with development sequencing assumptions (Section 2.5). The PIA includes infill and redevelopment areas located inside the PIA that are not sequenced to develop by 2031 and are therefore outside the PIA.

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2. Methodology

2.1 Overarching Process

To guide the process of developing planning assumptions for the Rockhampton Regional Council PIP, a detailed, robust and transparent methodology has been adopted consisting of seven key steps. The seven steps are;

Step 1 – Existing Land Use and Development Assumptions

Step 2 – Future Land Use Assumptions

Step 3 – Ultimate Development Capacity Analysis

Step 4 – Development Sequencing Analysis

Step 5 – Priority Infrastructure Area

Step 6 – Growth Projections

Step 7 – Planning Assumptions Report

The final deliverables of this process are a land parcel based GIS model (referred to in this report as the Planning Assumptions Model (PAM)) and the Planning Assumptions Report (PAR). The PAM was developed using ESRI ArcGIS and examined existing land use and development, modelled projected future dwelling, population, GFA and employment growth and calculated the ultimate development capacity of the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme (including consideration of planning scheme provisions and planning scheme overlay constraints, existing land uses and development approvals).

The methodology and assumptions for each step are contained in Sections 2.2 to 2.8.


2.2 Step 1 – Existing Land Use and Development Assumptions

The first step in the PIP planning assumptions process is the establishment of existing land use and development assumptions. Existing land use and development assumptions data are used:

• to develop the base year (30 June 2012) dwelling, population, Gross Floor Area (GFA) and employment assumptions;

• for comparison to the development capacity analysis to identify land which is entirely developed; and

• for adjusting development capacity data where existing development exceeds calculated development capacity (e.g. development with a higher yield than allowed for under the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme).

Land use and development assumptions data is underpinned by RRC rating land use data classified by Department of Natural Resources and Mines (DNRM) land valuation land use codes. For the purposes of the PAR and PAM, land uses are reclassified into corresponding Queensland Planning Provisions (QPP) use type definitions (e.g. Single Unit Dwelling reclassified to Dwelling House, Drive in Shopping Centre reclassified to Shopping Centre). Identified errors and gaps in RRC data were corrected through desktop analysis, including a review of 2010 aerial photography and use of Google Street View.

Sections 2.2.1 to 2.2.4 outline the methodology and assumptions utilised in the development of existing dwelling, population, GFA and employment assumptions.


2.2.1 Existing Dwellings

Existing dwelling houses, dual occupancies, multiple dwellings and other dwellings are identified utilising corrected QPP classified land use data. Table 1 shows the reporting categories and the corresponding QPP use definitions for dwellings and population. Land parcels with a dwelling house land use record are assigned one single dwelling in the PAM. Land parcels with a dual occupancy land use record are assigned one dual occupancy dwelling per Group Title or Building Unit Plan lot (excluding common land). Where a dual occupancy is on one land parcel, two semi-attached dwellings are assigned to the land parcel in the PAM. Land parcels with a multiple dwelling land use record are assigned one multiple dwelling per Group Title or Building Unit Plan lot (excluding common or non-residential land) or for multiple dwellings on one land parcel, the number of multiple dwellings are identified using drive-by survey or Google Street View. Multiple dwellings are assumed to be equivalent two bedroom dwelling units.

The number of other dwellings on land parcels with Tourist Park, Relocatable Home Park, Short-term Accommodation, Hotel, Rooming Accommodation and Hospital land uses are based on the number of beds, sites or units identified through drive-by survey, internet research or telephone contact. The captured data is converted in to the equivalent two bedroom other dwelling units (e.g. 50 short-term accommodation beds are converted in to 25 other dwelling units) and assigned to land parcels in the PAM.

Where existing dwellings extend over a number of land parcels, the number of dwellings is equally split over the land parcels (e.g. one dwelling house over two land parcels is split, with each land parcel given 0.5 dwellings).

Table 1 - Dwelling and Population Reporting Categories and Corresponding QPP Use Definitions

Reporting Category QPP Use Definition

Dwelling House Dwelling House

Dual Occupancy Dual Occupancy

Multiple Dwelling Multiple Dwelling, Residential Care Facility, Retirement Facility

Other Dwelling Hospital, Hotel, Relocatable Home Park, Rooming Accommodation, Short-term Accommodation, Tourist Park


2.2.2 Existing Resident and Non-Resident Population

The existing resident population is calculated using the existing number of dwellings in the Dwelling House, Dual Occupancy and Multiple Dwelling reporting categories multiplied by the dwelling occupancy rates contained in Table 2. Dwelling occupancy rates are based on the 2006 and 2011 ABS Censuses at a sub-regional level to reflect sub-regional variances. Of note, is the low dwelling occupancy rate within dwelling houses in Mount Morgan indicating lower occupancy or alternatively higher vacancy rates.

The existing non-resident population is calculated using the existing number of dwellings in the Other Dwelling reporting category multiplied by the dwelling occupancy rates contained in Table 2. Populations in Relocatable Home Parks are split 50% resident and 50% non-resident.

Table 2 - Existing Dwelling Occupancy Rate Assumptions

Reporting Category

Dwelling Conversion Rate

Dwelling Occupancy Rates

Rockhampton City

Fitzroy Mount Morgan

Dwelling House Persons per dwelling 2.7 2.9 2.0

Dual Occupancy Persons per dwelling unit 1.7 1.7 1.7

Multiple Dwelling

Persons per two bedroom equivalent multiple dwelling unit

1.6 1.6 1.6

Other Dwelling Persons per dwelling unit or number of beds (two bedroom multiple dwelling equivalent)

1.6 1.6 1.6


2.2.3 Existing Gross Floor Area

Existing retail, commercial, industrial and community purposes gross floor area (GFA) is calculated using reclassified and corrected land use data and digitised building footprint data and multiplied by identified levels of GFA (e.g. building footprint of 1,000m2 multiplied by 2 levels of GFA equals 2,000m2 GFA). Levels of GFA exclude underground or under storey car parking.

Table 3 details the reporting categories and the corresponding QPP use definitions for GFA and employment.

Table 3 - GFA and Employment Reporting Categories and Corresponding QPP Use Definitions

Reporting Category QPP Use Definition

Retail Food and Drink Outlet, Garden Centre, Hotel, Nightclub Entertainment Facility, Outdoor Sales, Service Industry, Service Station, Shop, Shopping Centre, Showroom, Theatre, Tourist Attraction

Commercial Funeral Parlour, Office, Short-term Accommodation

Industrial Extractive Industry, High Impact Industry, Low Impact Industry, Marine Industry, Medium Impact Industry, Research and Technology Industry, Transport Depot, Warehouse

Community Purposes Air Services, Child Care Centre, Club, Community Use, Detention Facility, Educational Establishment, Emergency Services, Hospital, Place of Worship, Residential Care Facility


2.2.4 Existing Employment

Existing employment is calculated based on existing GFA divided by the employee to GFA ratios contained in Table 4. Employee to GFA ratio assumptions are informed by a business survey of businesses across the Rockhampton region capturing the number of employees for comparison with captured GFA. Employee to GFA ratios are also informed by the ABS Retail Industry Survey 1998-991 which contains GFA and employee data to allow the calculation of employee to GFA ratios for retail land uses.

Table 4 - QPP Use Definitions and Employee to GFA Ratio Assumptions

QPP Use Definition Employee to GFA Ratio

Detention Facility, Nightclub Entertainment Facility, Rooming Accommodation, Shop, Shopping Centre

35m2 GFA/employee

Air Services, Child Care Centre, Emergency Services, Funeral Parlour, Hospital, Service Industry, Showroom, Theatre

50m2 GFA/employee

Garden Centre, Low Impact Industry, Marine Industry, Outdoor Sales, Research and Technology Industry, Service Station, Transport Depot, Warehouse

100m2 GFA/employee

Food and Drink Outlet 15m2 GFA/employee

Hotel 150m2 GFA/employee

Residential Care Facility, Short-term Accommodation 300m2 GFA/employee

Office 25m2 GFA/employee

Educational Establishment, Extractive Industry, Medium Impact Industry, Tourist Attraction

120m2 GFA/employee

High Impact Industry 150m2 GFA/employee

Cemetery, Club, Community Use, Park, Place of Worship 250m2 GFA/employee

1 8622.0 – Retail Industry, Australia, 1998-99


2.3 Step 2 – Future Land Use Assumptions

The second step in the Planning Assumptions process is the determination of future land uses and development assumptions based on the QPP zones and Strategic Framework Settlement Pattern Maps of the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme. Land use zoning is shown in Appendix B. Precinct boundaries are shown in Appendix C.

Future land use and development assumptions data are used:

• to develop land use and development density assumptions for QPP zones; and • to identify and utilise broad development sequencing contained in QPP zones and the

Strategic Framework Settlement Pattern Maps.


2.4 Step 3 – Ultimate Development Capacity Analysis

The third step in the PIP Planning Assumptions process is the calculation of ultimate development capacity for dwellings, population, Gross Floor Area (GFA) and employment. Ultimate development capacity refers to the maximum development yield planned for under the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme for land parcels having regard to allowable uses, development densities, lot size, internal road, park and drainage allowances, development constraints and development approvals.

Ultimate development capacity data is used:

• to determine the development yield of infill and greenfield residential and non-residential land;

• to determine land requirements for growth; • to inform development sequencing and determination of a Priority Infrastructure Area (PIA); • for comparison to existing development to identify land that is fully developed; and • as one input to a test of a development’s consistency with the PIP assumptions.

Sections 2.4.1 to 2.4.8 document the methodology and assumptions utilised in the calculation of ultimate development capacity for dwellings, population, GFA and employment.

2.4.1 Development Constraints

Ultimate development capacity analysis is informed by mapping and analysis of a range of development constraints. The aim of this methodology is to determine the areas of land subject to different types of constraints. Each development constraint is considered individually in regard to its varying impact on development yield. The percentage loss in yield ranges from completely constrained areas that are not suitable for urban development to a reduced yield of 50%, 60% and 80%. As a working example, in a constrained area with a 60% development yield in a Low Density Residential zone, development yield would be 9.18 dwellings/ha of net developable area (60% of 15.3 dwellings/ha of net developable area).

Constraint analysis is undertaken at a land parcel level with each land parcel area split in to the areas of completely constrained, 50% development yield, 60% development yield and 80% development yield and populated in the PAM to form part of the ultimate development capacity calculation process. The unconstrained land area is then calculated in the PAM by subtracting the combined constraint area from the total parcel area.

Table 5 shows the list of constraints and their assumed impact on development yield. The mapping of the constraint areas is shown in Appendix F. The constraint areas contained in Appendix F predate final engagement and drafting of the planning scheme. As such, the constraint areas may have been changed in the final draft of the planning scheme since the constraints contained in the PAM were finalised. Unless there are substantial changes to the constraint areas which may influence the results of the model, the PAM will not be run again (in its current iteration) to incorporate constraint area updates. Any changed constraint areas will be incorporated into the next iteration of the PAM (and PAR) to inform the next planning scheme.


Table 5 - Development Constraint Assumptions

Development Constraint

Map Reference

Assumed Impact on Development Yield

Data Source

Biodiversity - Areas of Ecological Significance

Map DC-BAES High Ecological Significance - No development yield

Areas of Ecological Significance, DERM 2009

Biodiversity - Corridors

Map DC-BC Corridors - No development yield Areas of Ecological Significance, DERM 2009

Biodiversity - Waterways

Map DC-BWw Waterways - No development yield Vegetation Management Plan 2010 & RRC (Buffers)

Biodiversity - Wetlands

Map DC-BWt • High Ecological Significance (HES) - No development yield

• HES Buffer - No development yield • General Ecological Significance

(GES) - 50% development yield • GES Buffer - 50% development

yield

Areas of Ecological Significance, DERM 2009

Bushfire Hazard Map DC-BH • Medium Bushfire Hazard Area - 60% development yield

• High Bushfire Hazard Area - No development yield

RRC, 2013 (based on LIDAR 2010)

Coastal Protection - Hazard Areas

Map DC-CP • Medium Coastal Hazard Area - 80% development yield

• High Coastal Hazard Area - 80% development yield

Coastal Management Plan, 2012

DCDB Parcel Type

Map DC-PT DCDB Parcel Type: Road, Intersection or Water - No development yield

DERM Digital Cadastral Database

Extractive Resources

Map DC-ER Land within Extractive Resources Overlay - No development yield

Queensland Government KRA, 2012

Flood Hazard Map DC-FH • Extreme Flood Hazard - No development yield

• High Flood Hazard - No development yield

• Medium Flood Hazard - No development yield

- Aurecon Fitzroy River Flood Study 2012 - Aurecon Gracemere Catchments Flood Study 2013 - GHD Limestone Creek Flood Study 2007

Industrial and Landfill Buffer

Map DC-ILB Land within Buffer - No development yield

RRC Planning Scheme Industrial Zones and Landfill Sites


Development Constraint

Map Reference

Assumed Impact on Development Yield

Data Source

Land Use Map DC-LU QPP Existing Land Use: Park, Cemetery, Community Use, Place of Worship, Defence Force, Hospital, Educational Establishment, Emergency Services, Correctional Facility, Utility Installation - No development yield

Reclassified from DERM Land Use Valuation Codes

Landslide Hazard

Map DC-LH Land Slope ≥15% - 50% development yield

RRC, 2013 (based on LIDAR 2010)

Queensland Heritage Register

Map DC-QHR Land on Queensland Heritage Register - No development yield

Qld Heritage Register 2013

Tenure Map DC-T DCDB Tenure Code: CA, CV, FD, FR, HM, LL, MT, MP, MR, NP, PH, PP, RE, RY, SF, TR, TP, WR - No development yield

DERM Digital Cadastral Database

Water Resource Catchments

Map DC-WRC Land within Water Resource Catchments - 50% development yield

RRC & Vegetation Management Plan 2010


2.4.2 Internal Non-Developable Area Assumptions for Greenfield Land

Ultimate development capacity analysis of greenfield land is informed by consideration and allowance for land area required for internal roads, parks and drainage. The percentage of land assigned to internal roads, parks and drainage varies depending on the zone and minimum lot size. Internal roads, parks and drainage area assumptions are contained in Table 6.

Internal road percentages are informed by Economic Development Queensland’s (EDQ) Practice Notes. Allowances for internal roads, parks and drainage are made for unconstrained land and land with a reduced yield constraint. It is assumed that a percentage of park and drainage area can be provided in any completely constrained land area (e.g. drainage within the 30m waterway buffer). The calculation of internal roads, parks and drainage allowances are undertaken at a land parcel level and populated in to the PAM.

Table 6 - Internal Non-Developable Area Assumptions for Greenfield Land

QPP Zone Internal Road % Parks / Drainage %

Low Density Residential 30% 5%

Low-Medium Density Residential 25% 5%

Low Impact Industry 35% 2%

Medium Impact Industry 20% 2%

High Impact Industry 20% 2%

Waterfront and Marine Industry 20% 2%

Emerging Community 30% 5%

Rural Residential 20% 5%


2.4.3 Development Density Assumptions

Ultimate development capacity analysis is based on development density assumptions for each Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme zone and precinct including allowable uses within a zone, mixture of uses, building height, levels of GFA and minimum lot size for greenfield and infill land. Where it is assumed that multiple and other dwellings are integrated in to a mixed use development, density assumptions are calculated based on the residential split of ultimate GFA divided by the assumed GFA per dwelling to produce the number of dwellings. Appendix A contains the land use and density assumption table. This table shows for each zone and precinct, use definition types, building height, levels of GFA, minimum lot size and density assumptions. Development density assumptions are applied to the pre-calculated developable area of land and are negatively adjusted based on internal road, park and drainage and development constraint assumptions. Therefore, the development density assumptions shown in Appendix A are the maximum possible density.

The land use assumptions contained in Appendix A predate final engagement and drafting of the planning scheme. As such, zone provisions may have been changed in the final draft of the planning scheme since the provisions in Appendix A were finalised. Unless the changes substantially influence the strategic settlement pattern and PIA the PAM will not be run again (in its current iteration) to incorporate provision updates. Any changed zone provisions will be incorporated into the next iteration of the PAM (and PAR) to inform the next planning scheme.

2.4.4 Development Application and Approvals

Ultimate development capacity analysis considered development approvals (Material Change of Use or Reconfiguration of a Lot, including Preliminary Approvals) within their currency period up to December 2012. Development approval information was sourced from the RRC development approval system and where required, additional details on the approved number of lots, dwellings or GFA was obtained through a search and retrieval of individual development approvals.


2.4.5 Ultimate Dwelling Capacity

This task involves the calculation of the dwelling yield permissible under the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme for land parcels as part of the ultimate development capacity calculation process. Ultimate dwelling capacity is calculated at a land parcel level through the multiplication of unconstrained, 50% development yield, 60% development yield and 80% development yield constraint land area by development density assumptions. This includes allowances for internal roads, parks and drainage. Any area of land unsuitable for urban development because of a particular development constraint is excluded from the calculation process. In formula form, the calculation of ultimate dwelling capacity is shown below.

The total number of ultimate dwellings is apportioned based on the assumed dwelling split in the density assumptions in Appendix A (e.g. 80% Dwelling House, 10% Dual Occupancy, 10% Multiple Dwelling) and populated in to the PAM. Ultimate dwelling capacity is adjusted on land with a development approval to reflect the number of approved dwellings by dwelling type. Where the number of existing dwellings exceeds the calculated ultimate dwelling capacity, the ultimate dwelling capacity is adjusted to reflect the existing number of dwellings.

Ultimate Dwelling Capacity Formulas:

Unconstrained Development Yield =

Unconstrained Land Area × (1 – Internal Non-Developable Percentage (Table 6)) ×

Density Assumptions (Appendix A)

80% Development Yield =

80% Yield Constraint Land Area × (1 – Internal Non-Developable Percentage (Table 6)) ×

Density Assumptions (Appendix A) × 0.8







Ultimate Dwelling Capacity =

Unconstrained Development Yield + 80% Development Yield + 60%

Development Yield + 50% Development Yield

The findings from the ultimate dwelling capacity analysis are shown in Appendix G.


2.4.6 Ultimate Population Capacity

Ultimate population capacity is calculated at a land parcel level through the multiplication of the ultimate dwelling capacity and the dwelling occupancy rate assumptions shown in Table 7. Where the ultimate dwelling capacity is equal to the number of existing dwellings, the occupancy rates in Table 2 are utilised.

The findings from the ultimate population capacity analysis are shown in Appendix H.

Table 7 - Ultimate Dwelling Occupancy Rate Assumptions

Reporting Category

Dwelling Conversion Rate

Dwelling Occupancy Rates

Rockhampton City

Fitzroy Mount Morgan

Dwelling House Persons per dwelling 2.6 2.8 2.3

Dual Occupancy Persons per dwelling unit 1.7 1.7 1.7

Multiple Dwelling

Persons per two bedroom equivalent multiple dwelling unit

1.6 1.6 1.6

Other Dwelling Persons per dwelling unit or number of beds (two bedroom multiple dwelling equivalent)

1.6 1.6 1.6


2.4.7 Ultimate Gross Floor Area Capacity

This task involves the calculation of the Gross Floor Area (GFA) yield permissible under the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme for land parcels as part of the ultimate development capacity calculation process. Ultimate GFA capacity is calculated at a land parcel level through the multiplication of unconstrained, 50% development yield, 60% development yield and 80% development yield constraint land area by development density assumptions. This includes allowances for internal roads, parks and drainage. Any area of land unsuitable for urban development because of a particular development constraint is excluded from the calculation process. In formula form, the calculation of ultimate GFA capacity is shown below.

The total amount of ultimate GFA is apportioned based on the assumed GFA split in the density assumptions in Appendix A (e.g. 60% commercial, 20% retail). Ultimate GFA capacity is adjusted on land with a development approval to reflect the amount of approved GFA by GFA type. Where the amount of existing GFA exceeds the calculated ultimate GFA capacity, the ultimate GFA capacity is adjusted to reflect the existing amount of GFA.

Ultimate GFA Capacity Formulas:

Unconstrained Development Yield =

Unconstrained Land Area × (1 – Internal Non-Developable Percentage (Table 6)) ×

Density Assumptions (Appendix A)










Ultimate GFA Capacity =

Unconstrained Development Yield + 80% Development Yield + 60%

Development Yield + 50% Development Yield

The findings from the ultimate GFA capacity analysis are shown in Appendix I.


2.4.8 Ultimate Employment Capacity

Ultimate employment capacity is calculated at a land parcel level through dividing the ultimate GFA capacity by the employee to GFA ratio assumptions in Table 8. Employee to GFA ratios represent the average employee to GFA ratios for retail, commercial, industrial and community purposes GFA and are consistent with the employee to GFA ratios contained in Table 4. Where the ultimate GFA capacity is equal to the amount of existing GFA, the employee to GFA ratios in Table 4 are utilised.

The findings from the ultimate employment capacity analysis are shown in Appendix J.

Table 8 - QPP Zones and Employee to GFA Ratio Assumptions

QPP Zone Precinct Category Employee to GFA Ratio

High Density Residential Retail 25 m2 GFA/Employee

Principal Centre Business Services Precinct Retail 30 m2 GFA/Employee

Commercial 25 m2 GFA/Employee

Principal Centre Core Precinct Retail 30 m2 GFA/Employee


Principal Centre Denison Street Precinct Retail 30 m2 GFA/Employee


Principal Centre Quay Street Precinct Retail 30 m2 GFA/Employee


Major Centre Retail 35 m2 GFA/Employee

District Centre Retail 30 m2 GFA/Employee


Local Centre Retail 25 m2 GFA/Employee


Neighbourhood Centre Retail 25 m2 GFA/Employee


Low Impact Industry Industry 100 m2 GFA/Employee

Medium Impact Industry Industry 120 m2 GFA/Employee

Medium Impact Industry Gracemere Saleyards Precinct Industry 120 m2 GFA/Employee

Retail 130 m2 GFA/Employee

High Impact Industry Industry 150 m2 GFA/Employee

Special Industry Industry 100 m2 GFA/Employee Waterfront and Marine Industry Industry 150 m2 GFA/Employee


QPP Zone Precinct Category Employee to GFA Ratio

Special Purpose Rockhampton Airport Precinct - Business Services Sub-Precinct


Commercial 25 m2 GFA/Employee Community Purpose 50 m2 GFA/Employee

Special Purpose CQU Rockhampton PDA Retail 35 m2 GFA/Employee


Specialised Centre Gladstone Road and George Street Precinct



Specialised Centre

Gladstone Road and George Street Precinct - Outdoor Sales and Services Sub-Precinct


Industry 100 m2 GFA/Employee

Specialised Centre

Gladstone Road and George Street Precinct - Residential and Food Services Sub-Precinct


Specialised Centre Musgrave Street Precinct - Mixed Use Sub-Precinct



Specialised Centre Musgrave Street Precinct - Outdoor Sales and Services Sub-Precinct


Industry 100 m2 GFA/Employee

Specialised Centre Yaamba Road Precinct Retail 60 m2 GFA/Employee


2.5 Step 4 – Development Sequencing Analysis

The fourth step in the PIP Planning Assumptions process is the sequencing of development inside and outside the PIA from 2012 to 2031 and beyond.

Development sequencing is undertaken at a land parcel level using timeframes contained and described in Table 9. Development sequencing is used:

• to determine the extent of the PIA; • to guide growth projections and the provision of trunk infrastructure; and • as one input to a test of a development’s consistency with the PIP assumptions.

Development sequencing is informed by development probability analysis which examines a range of scored criteria to identify the order of future development from high to low probability. Sections 2.5.1 to 2.5.6 document the methodology and assumptions utilised in the development probability analysis and the guiding principles for development sequencing.

Table 9 - Development Sequence Timeframes

Timing Description

Existing Applies to existing development at 2012. No further urban development planned for under the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme.

2012-2031 Applies to existing dwellings in the Mount Morgan area, where it is assumed that population growth will occur through an increase in dwelling occupancy only.

2016 Development begins after 30 June 2012 and is fully completed by 30 June 2016.

2016+ Staged development, part of the development begins after 30 June 2012 and is completed by 30 June 2016, but the balance of the development is commenced and completed after 30 June 2016.


2021+ Staged development, part of the development begins after 30 June 2016 and is completed by 30 June 2021, but the balance of the development is commenced and completed after 30 June 2021.



2031+ Development begins after 30 June 2031. Development is beyond the life of the Planning Scheme and is outside of the Priority Infrastructure Area.


2.5.1 Guiding Principles

Development sequencing is guided by a set of principles that are used consistently across the region including:

• advancing the purpose of SPA through sequencing urban development in areas where adequate infrastructure exists or can be provided efficiently;

• the sub-regional allocation of resident population growth throughout the Rockhampton region;

• sequencing of land to accommodate population growth in a diversity of housing choices to meet housing needs (informed by the Rockhampton Regional Council Population Distribution and Residential Development Study2); and

• sequencing of land to accommodate urban based employment growth through the consideration of the employment needs to meet projected resident and non-resident population growth (informed by Rockhampton Regional Council Economic Development and Employment Study3).

2.5.2 Sub-Regional Allocation of Resident Population Growth

The Rockhampton region resident population growth projections are benchmarked against Queensland Government 2008 High Series population projections. The adoption of the 2008 High Series population projections was a decision made by RRC in consideration of the following:

• the recent historical and current rate of development is resulting in increased population growth above Medium Series population projections in Rockhampton City and Fitzroy areas;

• the extent and scale of residential development approvals across the Rockhampton region; • the core function of RRC as a lifestyle and service centre for the broader region which is

surrounded by regions of significant growth and development, including the mining and resource communities of Isaac and Central Highlands Regional Councils and the LNG/port focus of Gladstone Regional Council; and

• the impact of continuing growth in the Bowen, Surat and Galilee Basins and around Gladstone and Mackay and the need for RRC to provide services, employment and housing to meet the needs of the broader region.

There have been subsequent releases of population projections, specifically the 2011 and 2013 editions. Due to the changes in the LGA boundaries due to amalgamation and de-amalgamation, it is difficult to compare the 2008 and 2011 population projection editions for the current RRC LGA. Although, for the former RRC LGA (including Livingstone Shire Council Area) the 2008 High Series population projection lies between the 2011 Medium and 2011 High Series projections. For this reason, Council agreed to continue to plan based on the 2008 High Series population projection.

2 Rockhampton Regional Council Population Distribution and Residential Development Study November 2010 prepared by Buckley Vann, 99 Consulting and Urban Economics 3 Rockhampton Regional Council Economic Development and Employment Study December 2010 prepared by GHD and Economic Associates


Although the 2013 edition was not released in time to be incorporated in the PAM, the 2008 High Series population projection is higher than the 2013 High Series population projection for 2011 and 2016, between 2013 Medium Series and 2013 High Series projections for 2021 and between 2013 Low Series and 2013 Medium Series projections for 2026 and 2031.

Residential development sequencing and population growth projections are guided by the sub-regional allocation of population growth for the former Rockhampton City, Fitzroy and Mount Morgan Local Government areas. The sub-regional allocation of population growth is informed by analysis of ABS historical resident population estimates, the extent, distribution and scale of residential development approvals across the Rockhampton region and emerging development activity.

2.5.3 Development Probability Analysis

The development probability analysis method is used to quantitatively assess the probability of future development across the Rockhampton area to assist in the development sequencing of land to meet projected population and employment growth. Development probability analysis involves the consideration of a range of rated criteria to determine the comparative probability of future development. The analysis criteria, description of each criterion and rating criteria are contained in Table 10.

The adopted rating system included the following range of values which are weighted based on comparative significance:

• Very Low: 0 • Low: 25 • Medium: 50 • High: 75 • Very High: 100

The deliverable from the analysis is the calculation of total ratings and production of a development probability map detailing future development probability from very low to very high. In terms of development sequencing, land with the highest development probability is considered for sequencing first followed sequentially down through the development probability ratings. The findings from the development probability analysis are shown on Appendix K.


Table 10 - Development Probability Analysis Criteria

Criteria Description Development Probability and Rating Criteria

All Urban and Rural Residential Land Criteria

Strategic Framework Settlement Pattern Map Designation

Consideration of Strategic Framework Settlement Pattern Map designations as an indicator of Council’s preferred high level sequencing of development.

Strategic Framework Settlement Pattern Map designation: • Urban, Urban Infill, Urban

renewal, Rural Residential (≥ 5ha): Very High (100)

• New Urban Area: High (75) • Future Urban Area: Medium

(50)

Vacant Land Identification of vacant urban and rural residential land. It was assumed that vacant land would have higher market desirability than land with existing development.

• Vacant land: High (75)

Development Approvals

Identification of land with a development approval for a Material Change of Use or Reconfiguration of a Lot (including Preliminary Approvals) within its currency period. Includes development approvals up to December 2012.

• Material Change of Use or Reconfiguration of a Lot approval: Very High (100)

Commercial or Market Viability and Rate of Return

Analysis of the increase in development yield achieved through development as an indicator for commercial or market viability and rate of return. This involved the comparison of existing development and development capacity calculations and the calculation of the percentage (%) increase in development yield (e.g. 10 existing dwellings with development capacity of 20 dwellings is a 100% increase or doubling of yield). Notionally, development of vacant land would have a higher percentage increase in yield compared to an infill or redevelopment site.

Percentage increase in yield: • 0 - 200%: Very Low (0) • 200 – 300%: Low (25) • 300 - 500%: Medium (50) • 500%+: High (75)



Proximity to Existing Infrastructure

Identification of land in proximity to existing trunk infrastructure or vacant residential lots serviced with infrastructure.

• Vacant residential lot with capacity for one detached dwelling: Very High (100); or

Buffer distance: • 0m - 100m: Very High (100)

- Water Supply (33.3) - Sewerage (33.3) (Urban

land only) - Road (33.3)

• 100m - 200m: Medium (50) - Water Supply (16.6) - Sewerage (16.6) (Urban

land only) - Road (16.6)

• 200m+: Very Low (0)

State or Local Government Owned Land

Identification of land owned by State or Local Government. Development of Government owned land will be addressed as part of the declaration of State Interest and Council consultation processes.

• Government ownership: Very Low (0)

• Not Government owned: Very High (100)

Additional Residential Zoned Land Criteria

Proximity to Incompatible and/or Undesirable Existing Land Uses

Identification of land in proximity to incompatible and/or undesirable existing land uses including: • Special Industries; • Extractive Industries; • Detention Facilities; • Intensive Animal Industries; • Utility Installations (Waste

Management Facilities); • Cemeteries.

Buffer distance: • 0m - 50m: Very Low (0) • 50m - 100m: Low (25) • 100m+: Medium (50)

Proximity to Commercial Centres

Identification of land in proximity to zoned commercial centres as an indicator of proximity to services and employment.

Buffer distance: • 0km - 1km: Medium (50) • 1km - 5km: Low (25) • 5km - 10km: Very Low (0)



Proximity to Lifestyle Attractors

Identification of land in proximity to lifestyle attractors as an indicator of market desirability including: • Schools or Universities; • Beaches, waterways and lakes; • Parks and sport and recreation

facilities;

Buffer distance: • 0m - 500m: Medium (50) • 500m - 5km: Low (25) • 5km - 10km: Very Low (0)

Investment Properties

Land in ownership by a company or trust as an indicator of an investment property and not the principal place of residence.

• Land in ownership by a company or trust or rating address not principal place of residence: Medium (50)

2.5.4 Residential Development Sequencing

Residential land is sequenced using ABS Census 5 year cohorts for Rockhampton City, Fitzroy and Mount Morgan areas. At each cohort, land is sequenced based on the selection of land with the highest development probability until the calculated cumulative total sub-regional population reaches the adopted sub-regional population projection benchmark. This iterative process is continued for 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 cohorts through sequencing land based on highest through to lowest development probability. The sequencing of land is supported through internal Council and external development industry consultation. Land in surplus of the 2031 population projection benchmark is sequenced post 2031.

Residential development sequencing is shown in Appendix L.

2.5.5 Non-Residential Development Sequencing

Non-residential land is sequenced using ABS Census 5 year cohorts. At each cohort, land is sequenced based on the selection of land with the highest development probability until the calculated cumulative employment total reaches comparable employment projection benchmarks. This iterative process is continued for 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 cohorts through sequencing land based on highest through to lowest development probability. Land in surplus of the 2031 employment projection benchmark is sequenced post 2031.

Community land is sequenced using ABS Census 5 year cohorts. At each cohort, land is sequenced based on proposed Local and State Government projects (e.g. new or expansion of schools, hospitals, police stations etc.). To date, growth associated with State Government projects has not been included in the RRC PIP planning assumptions.

Non-residential development sequencing is shown in Appendix L.


2.5.6 Sequencing Ground-Truthing

A ground-truthing exercise is then performed on the sequenced parcels to test the sequencing against local knowledge of what is likely to occur (particularly for greenfield parcels). Where required, the sequencing is then updated to reflect this local knowledge while still ensuring that population and employment projections match sub-regional benchmarks.

This process is performed to pick up sequencing that may not be in-line with local knowledge of an area and is an acknowledgement that the Planning Assumptions Model process cannot possibly capture all of the factors that affect the sequencing of development. As the development of a Planning Assumptions Model can take some time, this ground-truthing exercise also picks up significant land use changes and development approvals that may have occurred since the beginning of the process.


2.6 Step 5 – Priority Infrastructure Area

The fifth step in the PIP Planning Assumptions process is determining the Priority Infrastructure Area (PIA). The PIA shows Rockhampton Regional Council’s intent to sequence the supply of trunk infrastructure to accommodate anticipated urban development in the most efficient way. The PIA includes sufficient urban greenfield and infill land to accommodate population and employment growth up to 30 June 2031.

The PIA is a two dimensional extent consisting of multiple geographically discreet areas and is to be read in combination with development sequencing assumptions detailed in Appendix L. The PIA aligns with development sequencing assumptions and includes land sequenced to complete development by 30 June 2031 (includes Existing, 2012-2031, 2016, 2016+, 2021, 2021+, 2026 and 2031 timeframes).

Land sequenced to commence development after 30 June 2031 (2031+ timeframe) is outside the PIA and primarily applies to infill and redevelopment areas inside the PIA or greenfield land outside the PIA that are not required for 15 to 20 years of growth. The PIA aligns with the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme Strategic Framework Settlement Pattern Maps urban and new urban designations, and includes some future urban areas in Gracemere.

The PIA is shown in Appendix M.


2.7 Step 6 – Growth Projections

The sixth step in the PIP Planning Assumptions process is the preparation of dwelling, population, Gross Floor Area (GFA) and employment growth projections. Growth projections are prepared at a land parcel level in the PAM, exported and summarised by PAM Reporting Areas. Reporting areas are based on QLD gazetted localities that were amalgamated in areas outside the PIA to form a balance area. The Gracemere reporting area is split in to two areas (Gracemere North and Gracemere South) to enable the mapping of the areas at a comparable scale. PAM Reporting Areas are shown in Appendix E.


2.8 Step 7 – Planning Assumptions Report

The seventh step in the PIP Planning Assumptions process is the preparation of the Planning Assumptions Report (PAR). The PAR contains the planning assumptions and growth projections underpinning the Planning Assumptions Model (PAM).

This PAR is structured to:

• document the methodology and assumptions used to prepare dwelling, population, gross floor area (GFA) and employment planning assumptions and the timing of development (development sequence);

• present and discuss dwelling, population, gross floor area, employment projections and development sequence; and

• identify a Priority Infrastructure Area (PIA);


3. Central Queensland University Rockhampton Priority Development Area

The Central Queensland University (CQU) Rockhampton Priority Development Area (PDA) was declared on 9 December 2011. The PDA covers 189 hectares and is located approximately 5km north of Rockhampton Central Business District in the suburbs of Norman Gardens and Parkhurst. On 26 April 2013 the CQU Rockhampton PDA Development Scheme was approved by the state government. The CQU Rockhampton PDA Precinct was created in the PAM to cover the CQU PDA, and is shown on Map PB-18 in Appendix C.

Due to the significant size and scale of the PDA it was decided to incorporate the CQU Rockhampton PDA growth into the PAM. As development within the PDA is guided by the CQU Rockhampton PDA Development Scheme (which is separate to the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme) the assumed growth for the area relied on the aspirations of the PDA Development Scheme. As such, the CQU PDA was considered a special area in the PAM where the growth assumptions came directly from the PDA Development Scheme and were not calculated using the usual methodology.

3.1 Residential Growth

It is assumed that residential growth will occur on two parcels within the CQU Rockhampton PDA: Lot 1 on RP613177 (the former CSIRO site) and Lot 70 on Plan LN2378 (the current CQU Rockhampton site). The dwelling occupancy rates used for the CQU Rockhampton PDA assumptions are shown in Table 11.

Table 11 - CQU PDA Dwelling Occupancy Rate Assumptions

Dwelling Type Occupancy Rate

Dwelling House 2.6

Dual Occupancy 1.7

Multiple Dwelling 1.6


3.1.1 Lot 1/RP613177 (Former CSIRO Site)

Table 12 - Assumed Dwelling Growth on Lot 1/RP613177 (former CSIRO site)

Reporting Category 2016 2021 2026 2031 Ultimate

Dwelling House 99 288 288 288 288 Dual Occupancy 42 123 123 123 123 Total Dwellings 141 411 411 411 411

Table 13 - Assumed Population Growth on Lot 1/RP613177 (former CSIRO site)


Dwelling House 257 748 748 748 748 Dual Occupancy 72 210 210 210 210 Total Population 329 958 958 958 958

3.1.2 Lot 70/LN2378 (CQU Rockhampton Site)

Table 14 - Assumed Dwelling Growth on Lot 70/LN2378 (CQU Rockhampton site)


Dwelling House 98 342 585 829 1,464 Dual Occupancy 48 167 285 404 714 Multiple Dwelling 13 47 81 114 202 Total Dwellings 159 555 952 1,348 2,379

Table 15 - Assumed Population Growth on Lot 70/LN2378 (CQU Rockhampton site)


Dwelling House 254 888 1,522 2,157 3,806 Dual Occupancy 81 283 485 688 1,213 Multiple Dwelling 22 75 129 183 323 Total Population 356 1,246 2,137 3,027 5,341


3.2 Non-Residential Growth

It is assumed non-residential growth will occur on one parcel within the CQU Rockhampton PDA: Lot 70 on Plan LN2378 (the current CQU Rockhampton site). The employee to Gross Floor Area (GFA) ratios used for the CQU Rockhampton PDA assumptions are shown in Table 16.

Table 16 - CQU PDA Employee to GFA Ratio Assumptions

Reporting Category Employee to GFA Ratio



Table 17 - Assumed GFA (m2) Growth on Lot 70/LN2378 (CQU Rockhampton site)


Retail 0 0 2,250 4,500 4,500 Commercial 0 0 1,500 3,000 3,000 Total GFA 0 0 3,750 7,500 7,500

Table 18 - Assumed Employment Growth on Lot 70/LN2378 (CQU Rockhampton site)


Retail 0 0 64 129 129 Commercial 0 0 60 120 120 Total Employment 0 0 124 249 249

3.3 Sequencing

Development sequencing for growth within the CQU Rockhampton PDA is largely based on the aspirations of the CQU Rockhampton PDA Development Scheme. Both growth parcels within the PDA are timed 2016+ (see Table 9) in the PAM. Due to the significant size and scale of the growth within the PDA, any changes to the timing of CQU Rockhampton PDA development will influence the timing of development in other areas, particularly development in Norman Gardens and Parkhurst.


4. Dwelling and Population Planning Assumptions

4.1 Estimated Resident and Non-Resident Population

The PIP planning assumptions include assumptions on the estimated resident population (ERP) and non-resident population (NRP). The inclusion of the NRP was required to allow the total infrastructure demand to be considered during infrastructure planning. It is noted that the benchmark Queensland Government population projections only include projections for the ERP. NRP data is not available through the Queensland Government and was calculated as part of the PAM process. The NRP is the estimated number of persons who reside in non-resident accommodation, including tourist parks, relocatable home parks, short-term accommodation, hotels, rooming accommodation and hospitals.

In the Rockhampton planning area, the omission of the NRP would result in an approximate 6% under estimation of population within the PIA in 2012 and an approximate 8% under estimation of population within the PIA in 2031. This highlights the significance of accounting for the non-resident population.


4.2 Base Year (2012)

4.2.1 Population

As of 30 June 2012, the estimated resident population of the Rockhampton region was modelled in the PAM to be 83,992 persons with a non-resident population of 4,958 persons. The total 2012 population (ERP plus NRP) was calculated to be 88,951. The estimated resident population inside the PIA was modelled in the PAM to be 74,545 persons with 9,447 persons residing outside the PIA. Figure shows the 2012 ERP inside the PIA for each Reporting Area.

Figure 1 – Existing (2012) ERP inside the PIA by Reporting Area

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4.2.2 Dwellings

As of 30 June 2012, the total number of dwellings was modelled in the PAM to be 36,323 dwellings, consisting of 27,947 dwelling houses, 1,660 dual occupancies, 3,286 multiple dwellings and 3,430 other dwellings. Figure 2 shows the 2012 dwelling mix across the Rockhampton region.

The total number of dwellings inside the PIA as of 30 June 2012 was 32,793 dwellings, consisting of 24,525 dwelling houses, 1,660 dual occupancies, 3,258 multiple dwellings and 3,350 other dwellings. Figure 3 shows the 2012 dwelling mix inside the PIA. Of note is the lower percentage of dwelling houses and the increased percentage of multiple and other dwellings inside the PIA compared to the entire Rockhampton region.

Figure 2 - Existing (2012) Dwelling Mix within the Rockhampton Regional Council Area

Dwelling House 77%

Dual Occupancy 5%

Multiple Dwelling 9%

Other Dwelling 9%


Figure 3 - Existing (2012) Dwelling Mix within the Priority Infrastructure Area

Dwelling House 75%

Dual Occupancy 5%


Other Dwelling 10%


4.3 Growth Projections

The following sections provide a summary of residential development and projected population growth for each projection cohort. Table 19 and Table 20 contain dwelling and population projections for the area inside the PIA (grouped by Reporting Area), totals for inside and outside the PIA and the regional total. Reporting Areas with no population inside the PIA were only included in the totals for outside the PIA and were not included individually in the tables. PAM Reporting Area boundaries are shown in Appendix E.

4.3.1 2016 Projection

As of 30 June 2016, the estimated resident population of the Rockhampton region is projected in the PAM to be 91,782 persons with 82,037 persons inside the PIA and 9,744 persons outside the PIA. The non-resident population is projected to be 5,902 persons, with the total population projected to be 97,683 persons.

Figure 4 shows Estimated Resident Population growth inside the PIA between 2012 and 2016 by Reporting Area. As demonstrated by Figure 4, the greatest amount of population growth inside the PIA is projected in Gracemere North, Gracemere South, Norman Gardens and Parkhurst.

Figure 4 - Existing (2012) to 2016 Population Growth (ERP) inside the PIA by Reporting Area

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Figure 5 shows the projected 2016 dwelling mix across the Rockhampton region. A comparison of the 2016 dwelling mix with the 2012 dwelling mix shows that the percentage of dwelling houses decreases to 75% and multiple dwellings and other dwellings increase to a 10% share each.

Figure 5 - 2016 Dwelling Mix within the Rockhampton Regional Council Area

Dwelling House 75%

Dual Occupancy 5%


Other Dwelling 10%




Figure 6 shows estimated resident population growth inside the PIA between 2016 and 2021 by Reporting Area. As demonstrated by Figure 6, the greatest amount of population growth is projected in Gracemere South, Kawana, Norman Gardens and Rockhampton City.

Figure 6 - 2016 to 2021 Population Growth (ERP) inside the PIA by Reporting Area

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Figure 7 shows the projected 2021 dwelling mix across the Rockhampton region. A comparison the 2021 dwelling mix with the 2016 dwelling mix shows that the percentage of dwelling houses decreases to 73% and multiple dwellings and other dwellings increase to an 11% share each.


Dwelling House 73%

Dual Occupancy 5%


Other Dwelling 11%




Figure 8 shows estimated resident population growth inside the PIA between 2021 and 2026 by Reporting Area. As demonstrated by Figure 8, the greatest amount of population growth is projected in Gracemere North, Gracemere South, Norman Gardens and Parkhurst.


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Figure 9 shows the projected 2026 dwelling mix across the Rockhampton region. A comparison of the 2026 dwelling mix with the 2021 dwelling mix shows that the percentage of dwelling houses decreases to 71%, dual occupancies increase to 6% and multiple dwellings increase to 12%.


Dwelling House 71%

Dual Occupancy 6%


Other Dwelling 11%




Figure 10 shows estimated resident population growth inside the PIA between 2026 and 2031 by Reporting Area. As demonstrated by Figure 10, the greatest amount of population growth is projected in Gracemere North, Gracemere South, Norman Gardens and Parkhurst.


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Figure 11 shows the projected 2031 dwelling mix across the Rockhampton region. A comparison of the 2031 dwelling mix with the 2026 dwelling mix shows that the percentage of dwelling houses decreases to 70% and other dwellings increase to 12%.


Dwelling House 70%

Dual Occupancy 6%


Other Dwelling 12%


4.4 Ultimate Development

Ultimate development refers to the development yield possible if development is consistent with the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme for land parcels having regard to allowable uses, development densities, lot size, internal road, park and drainage allowances, development constraints and development approvals. Ultimate development yield for the region is limited by zoned land within the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme and should not be considered a cap or constraint on growth within region.

Based on ultimate population capacity analysis, the ultimate resident population is modelled in the PAM to be 129,061 persons with 105,528 persons inside the PIA and 23,533 persons outside the PIA. The non-resident population is projected to be 20,833 persons, with the total population projected to be 149,893 persons. This ultimate population identifies the total resident and non-resident population that can be accommodated within the identified settlement pattern of the planning scheme.

Figure 12 shows the ultimate resident population capacity for Reporting Areas with an ERP greater than 500 persons. As demonstrated in Figure 12, the top ten Reporting Areas from highest to lowest population capacity are Parkhurst, Norman Gardens, Gracemere South, Frenchville, Berserker, Gracemere North, Park Avenue, The Range, Kawana and Koongal.

Figure 12 - Ultimate Population Capacity (ERP) by Reporting Area (where ERP > 500)

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Figure 13 shows the dwelling mix at ultimate development across the Rockhampton region. As demonstrated in Figure 13, the ultimate dwelling mix permissible under the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme sees a decrease in the percentage of dwelling houses and an increase in the percentage of other dwellings. The significant increase in the percentage of other dwellings is attributable to the multistorey buildings allowable in the Principal Centre and High Density Residential zones within Rockhampton’s Central Business District. Many of these parcels have existing uses on them and would require redevelopment to achieve this ultimate density.

Figure 13 - Ultimate Dwelling Mix within the Rockhampton Regional Council Area

Dwelling House 63%

Dual Occupancy 6%


Other Dwelling 20%


Table 19 - Existing and Projected Dwellings

Reporting Area Reporting Category Dwellings Per Time Period

Existing (2012) 2016 2021 2026 2031 Ultimate

Allenstown Dwelling House 1,048 1,049 1,054 1,051 1,050 970 Dual Occupancy 84 84 84 88 92 154 Multiple Dwelling 397 408 408 430 430 429 Other Dwelling 883 887 887 887 887 1,410 Total Dwellings 2,412 2,428 2,433 2,456 2,459 2,963

Berserker Dwelling House 2,666 2,677 2,720 2,693 2,664 2,606 Dual Occupancy 147 156 156 160 222 340 Multiple Dwelling 421 637 719 1,063 1,063 1,063 Other Dwelling 245 245 245 245 245 228 Total Dwellings 3,479 3,714 3,840 4,161 4,194 4,238

Depot Hill Dwelling House 520 520 525 525 525 525 Dual Occupancy 2 2 2 2 2 2 Multiple Dwelling 5 5 5 5 5 5 Other Dwelling 9 9 9 9 9 9 Total Dwellings 536 536 541 541 541 541

Frenchville Dwelling House 3,249 3,281 3,385 3,385 3,385 3,446 Dual Occupancy 249 253 253 253 253 257 Multiple Dwelling 191 195 195 195 195 199 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dwellings 3,689 3,730 3,833 3,833 3,833 3,902

Gracemere North Dwelling House 1,207 1,538 1,687 1,974 2,132 2,123 Dual Occupancy 36 46 66 131 151 156 Multiple Dwelling 62 71 92 170 261 340 Other Dwelling 0 22 140 210 397 549 Total Dwellings 1,305 1,677 1,985 2,485 2,942 3,169




Gracemere South Dwelling House 1,543 2,169 2,492 2,924 3,242 3,459 Dual Occupancy 22 88 129 165 205 235 Multiple Dwelling 14 29 70 112 152 182 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dwellings 1,579 2,286 2,690 3,200 3,599 3,876

Kabra Dwelling House 1 1 1 1 0 0 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dwellings 1 1 1 1 0 0

Kawana Dwelling House 1,423 1,522 1,737 1,737 1,737 1,739 Dual Occupancy 191 233 314 314 314 314 Multiple Dwelling 215 215 215 215 215 215 Other Dwelling 13 13 13 13 13 13 Total Dwellings 1,842 1,983 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,280

Koongal Dwelling House 1,592 1,593 1,597 1,597 1,597 1,651 Dual Occupancy 113 113 113 113 113 115 Multiple Dwelling 207 207 207 207 207 209 Other Dwelling 21 21 21 21 21 21 Total Dwellings 1,933 1,934 1,938 1,938 1,938 1,995

Lakes Creek Dwelling House 77 77 81 81 81 82 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dwellings 77 77 81 81 81 82




Mount Morgan Dwelling House 1,013 1,013 1,013 1,013 1,068 1,260 Dual Occupancy 8 8 8 8 8 8 Multiple Dwelling 30 30 30 30 30 30 Other Dwelling 18 18 18 18 18 202 Total Dwellings 1,069 1,069 1,069 1,069 1,124 1,500

Norman Gardens Dwelling House 2,854 3,431 4,005 4,266 4,510 5,192 Dual Occupancy 364 501 643 768 887 1,202 Multiple Dwelling 290 379 436 476 509 574 Other Dwelling 239 239 239 239 239 107 Total Dwellings 3,747 4,550 5,324 5,748 6,145 7,074

Park Avenue Dwelling House 1,970 1,971 1,981 1,981 1,981 1,989 Dual Occupancy 194 194 194 194 194 194 Multiple Dwelling 223 227 227 227 227 227 Other Dwelling 93 93 93 93 93 21 Total Dwellings 2,480 2,485 2,495 2,495 2,495 2,431

Parkhurst Dwelling House 409 890 1,055 1,775 2,370 2,917 Dual Occupancy 6 68 68 256 332 418 Multiple Dwelling 0 48 48 236 312 398 Other Dwelling 259 259 259 259 259 259 Total Dwellings 674 1,266 1,431 2,526 3,272 3,992

Port Curtis Dwelling House 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0




Rockhampton City Dwelling House 773 775 798 785 781 724 Dual Occupancy 45 45 45 57 65 75 Multiple Dwelling 349 675 1,330 1,663 1,663 1,655 Other Dwelling 1,435 1,967 2,623 3,028 3,317 10,219 Total Dwellings 2,601 3,461 4,795 5,533 5,825 12,673

The Common Dwelling House 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0

The Mine Dwelling House 8 8 8 8 10 12 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dwellings 8 8 8 8 10 12

The Range Dwelling House 1,772 1,772 1,786 1,785 1,785 1,806 Dual Occupancy 90 90 90 90 90 100 Multiple Dwelling 489 489 489 498 498 498 Other Dwelling 135 135 135 135 135 135 Total Dwellings 2,486 2,486 2,500 2,508 2,508 2,539

Walterhall Dwelling House 34 34 34 34 42 48 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dwellings 34 34 34 34 42 48




Wandal Dwelling House 1,578 1,578 1,586 1,586 1,586 1,591 Dual Occupancy 43 43 43 43 43 43 Multiple Dwelling 297 297 297 297 297 297 Other Dwelling 0 32 32 32 32 32 Total Dwellings 1,918 1,950 1,958 1,958 1,958 1,963

West Rockhampton Dwelling House 787 769 782 778 778 816 Dual Occupancy 66 66 66 66 66 67 Multiple Dwelling 70 70 70 70 70 71 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dwellings 923 905 918 914 914 955

Total Inside PIA Dwelling House 24,525 26,668 28,327 29,977 31,323 32,956 Dual Occupancy 1,660 1,991 2,274 2,708 3,037 3,680 Multiple Dwelling 3,258 3,983 4,839 5,895 6,135 6,392 Other Dwelling 3,350 3,939 4,713 5,188 5,663 13,205 Total Dwellings 32,793 36,581 40,154 43,768 46,159 56,233

Total Outside PIA Dwelling House 3,423 3,527 3,571 3,738 3,738 8,102 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 493 Multiple Dwelling 27 27 27 27 27 520 Other Dwelling 80 80 80 80 80 80 Total Dwellings 3,530 3,634 3,678 3,845 3,845 9,195

Total Regional Area Dwelling House 27,947 30,195 31,897 33,715 35,061 41,058 Dual Occupancy 1,660 1,991 2,274 2,708 3,037 4,173 Multiple Dwelling 3,286 4,010 4,867 5,922 6,163 6,912 Other Dwelling 3,430 4,019 4,793 5,268 5,743 13,285 Total Dwellings 36,323 40,215 43,832 47,613 50,004 65,428

Note: Sum of data may not equal totals due to rounding


Table 20 - Existing and Projected Population

Reporting Area Reporting Category Population Per Time Period


Allenstown Dwelling House 2,830 2,833 2,846 2,836 2,833 2,617 Dual Occupancy 143 143 143 150 156 262 Multiple Dwelling 634 653 653 689 689 687 Other Dwelling 210 210 210 210 210 210 Total ERP 3,817 3,839 3,851 3,884 3,888 3,775 Total NRP 1,203 1,209 1,209 1,209 1,209 2,047

Berserker Dwelling House 7,199 7,226 7,338 7,264 7,186 7,022 Dual Occupancy 250 265 265 271 377 577 Multiple Dwelling 673 1,019 1,151 1,702 1,702 1,702 Other Dwelling 63 63 63 63 63 63 Total ERP 8,186 8,573 8,816 9,300 9,327 9,364 Total NRP 329 329 329 329 329 302

Depot Hill Dwelling House 1,404 1,404 1,417 1,417 1,417 1,417 Dual Occupancy 3 3 3 3 3 3 Multiple Dwelling 8 8 8 8 8 8 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 1,415 1,415 1,428 1,428 1,428 1,428 Total NRP 14 14 14 14 14 14

Frenchville Dwelling House 8,772 8,856 9,124 9,124 9,124 9,280 Dual Occupancy 423 431 431 431 431 437 Multiple Dwelling 306 312 312 312 312 318 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 9,501 9,599 9,867 9,867 9,867 10,035 Total NRP 0 0 0 0 0 0




Gracemere North Dwelling House 3,500 4,427 4,844 5,640 6,080 6,054 Dual Occupancy 61 78 112 223 257 266 Multiple Dwelling 99 114 147 272 418 543 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 3,661 4,619 5,102 6,135 6,756 6,863 Total NRP 0 35 224 336 635 879

Gracemere South Dwelling House 4,475 6,228 7,129 8,335 9,225 9,831 Dual Occupancy 37 150 219 280 349 399 Multiple Dwelling 22 46 112 179 243 291 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 4,535 6,424 7,460 8,794 9,817 10,522 Total NRP 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kabra Dwelling House 3 3 3 3 0 0 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 3 3 3 3 0 0 Total NRP 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kawana Dwelling House 3,842 4,099 4,658 4,658 4,658 4,658 Dual Occupancy 325 397 534 534 534 534 Multiple Dwelling 344 344 344 344 344 344 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 4,511 4,840 5,536 5,536 5,536 5,537 Total NRP 20 20 20 20 20 20




Koongal Dwelling House 4,298 4,301 4,311 4,311 4,311 4,450 Dual Occupancy 192 192 192 192 192 195 Multiple Dwelling 331 331 331 331 331 334 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 4,822 4,824 4,835 4,835 4,835 4,979 Total NRP 34 34 34 34 34 34

Lakes Creek Dwelling House 208 208 218 218 218 221 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 208 208 218 218 218 221 Total NRP 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mount Morgan Dwelling House 2,026 2,036 2,036 2,036 2,162 2,899 Dual Occupancy 14 14 14 14 14 14 Multiple Dwelling 48 48 48 48 48 48 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 2,087 2,097 2,097 2,097 2,224 2,961 Total NRP 29 29 29 29 29 322

Norman Gardens Dwelling House 7,706 9,206 10,698 11,376 12,010 13,782 Dual Occupancy 619 852 1,094 1,305 1,508 2,043 Multiple Dwelling 463 607 698 761 815 918 Other Dwelling 106 106 106 106 106 0 Total ERP 8,894 10,770 12,595 13,548 14,438 16,743 Total NRP 277 277 277 277 277 171




Park Avenue Dwelling House 5,319 5,321 5,347 5,347 5,347 5,367 Dual Occupancy 330 330 330 330 330 330 Multiple Dwelling 357 363 363 363 363 363 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 6,005 6,014 6,040 6,040 6,040 6,060 Total NRP 149 149 149 149 149 34

Parkhurst Dwelling House 1,104 2,354 2,784 4,654 6,201 7,622 Dual Occupancy 10 116 116 435 564 711 Multiple Dwelling 0 78 78 378 498 637 Other Dwelling 102 102 102 102 102 102 Total ERP 1,217 2,650 3,080 5,570 7,366 9,072 Total NRP 312 312 312 312 312 312

Port Curtis Dwelling House 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total NRP 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rockhampton City Dwelling House 2,086 2,091 2,149 2,113 2,102 1,946 Dual Occupancy 77 77 77 97 111 128 Multiple Dwelling 558 1,080 2,128 2,661 2,661 2,648 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 2,720 3,247 4,353 4,871 4,874 4,722 Total NRP 2,296 3,147 4,197 4,845 5,306 16,351




The Common Dwelling House 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total NRP 0 0 0 0 0 0

The Mine Dwelling House 16 16 16 16 21 28 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 16 16 16 16 21 28 Total NRP 0 0 0 0 0 0

The Range Dwelling House 4,786 4,786 4,820 4,817 4,817 4,872 Dual Occupancy 153 153 153 153 153 170 Multiple Dwelling 782 782 782 797 797 797 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 5,721 5,721 5,755 5,767 5,767 5,839 Total NRP 216 216 216 216 216 216

Walterhall Dwelling House 68 68 68 68 86 110 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 68 68 68 68 86 110 Total NRP 0 0 0 0 0 0




Wandal Dwelling House 4,262 4,262 4,283 4,283 4,283 4,293 Dual Occupancy 73 73 73 73 73 73 Multiple Dwelling 475 475 475 475 475 475 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 4,810 4,810 4,831 4,831 4,831 4,841 Total NRP 0 51 51 51 51 51

West Rockhampton Dwelling House 2,125 2,076 2,110 2,099 2,099 2,199 Dual Occupancy 112 112 112 112 112 114 Multiple Dwelling 112 112 112 112 112 114 Other Dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total ERP 2,349 2,300 2,334 2,323 2,323 2,428 Total NRP 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Inside PIA Dwelling House 66,029 71,799 76,197 80,615 84,182 88,669 Dual Occupancy 2,822 3,384 3,867 4,603 5,163 6,257 Multiple Dwelling 5,214 6,373 7,743 9,432 9,817 10,227 Other Dwelling 481 481 481 481 481 375 Total ERP 74,545 82,037 88,288 95,131 99,643 105,528 Total NRP 4,878 5,822 7,060 7,820 8,580 20,753 Total Population 79,424 87,859 95,348 102,951 108,223 126,281

Total Outside PIA Dwelling House 9,355 9,653 9,769 10,235 10,235 21,815 Dual Occupancy 0 0 0 0 0 838 Multiple Dwelling 44 44 44 44 44 832 Other Dwelling 48 48 48 48 48 48 Total ERP 9,447 9,744 9,861 10,327 10,327 23,533 Total NRP 80 80 80 80 80 80 Total Population 9,527 9,824 9,941 10,407 10,407 23,613




Total Regional Area Dwelling House 75,384 81,452 85,966 90,850 94,417 110,484 Dual Occupancy 2,822 3,384 3,867 4,603 5,163 7,094 Multiple Dwelling 5,257 6,417 7,787 9,475 9,860 11,060 Other Dwelling 529 529 529 529 529 423 Total ERP 83,992 91,782 98,149 105,458 109,969 129,061 Total NRP 4,958 5,902 7,140 7,900 8,660 20,833 Total Population 88,951 97,683 105,289 113,357 118,630 149,893



5. Gross Floor Area and Employment Planning Assumptions

5.1 Base Year (2012)

5.1.1 Employment

As of 30 June 2012, the number of persons in urban based employment in the Rockhampton region was modelled in the PAM to be 34,036 persons. Urban based employment inside the PIA was modelled in the PAM to be 33,106 persons with 929 persons employed outside the PIA. As shown in Figure 14, the Reporting Areas with the largest urban based employment inside the PIA are Berserker, Kawana, Park Avenue and Rockhampton City.

Figure 14 - Existing (2012) Urban Based Employment inside the PIA by Reporting Area

5.1.2 Gross Floor Area

As of 30 June 2012, the amount of urban Gross Floor Area (GFA) in the Rockhampton region was modelled in the PAM to be 2,146,931m2 GFA (214.7ha). Urban GFA inside the PIA was calculated to be 2,027,184m2 GFA (202.7ha) with 119,747m2 GFA (12ha) located outside the PIA.

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5.2 Growth Projections

The following sections provide a summary of non-residential development and projected employment growth for each projection cohort. Table 21 and Table 22 contain Gross Floor Area (GFA) and employment projections within the PIA for each Reporting Area, totals for inside and outside the PIA and the area total. Reporting Areas with no employment inside the PIA were not included in the tables. PAM Reporting Area boundaries are shown in Appendix E.


As of 30 June 2016, urban based employment in the Rockhampton area is projected in the PAM to be 40,728 persons with 39,798 employed persons inside the PIA and 929 employed persons outside the PIA. Figure 15 shows projected employment growth inside the PIA between 2012 and 2016 by Reporting Area. As demonstrated in Figure 15, the greatest amount of employment growth is projected in Berserker, Gracemere South, Parkhurst and Rockhampton City. This reflects current centre locations, existing industrial areas and employment growth in the Gracemere Industrial Area (GIA).

Figure 15 - Existing (2012) to 2016 Employment Growth inside the PIA by Reporting Area

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As of 30 June 2021, urban based employment in the Rockhampton region is projected in the PAM to be 47,694 persons with 46,722 employed persons inside the PIA and 971 employed persons outside the PIA. Figure 16 shows projected employment growth inside the PIA between 2016 and 2021 by Reporting Area. As demonstrated in Figure 16, the greatest amount of employment growth is projected in Berserker, Gracemere North, Gracemere South and Rockhampton City. This figure identifies employment growth within the GIA and shows the role of the Principal Centre as a commercial employment centre.

Figure 16 - 2016 to 2021 Employment Growth inside the PIA by Reporting Area

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As of 30 June 2026, urban based employment in the Rockhampton region is projected in the PAM to be 55,427 persons with 54,385 employed persons inside the PIA and 1,042 employed persons outside the PIA. Figure 17 shows projected employment growth inside the PIA between 2021 and 2026 by Reporting Area. As demonstrated in Figure 17, the greatest amount of employment growth is projected in Berserker, Gracemere North, Gracemere South and Rockhampton City. Again, the GIA supports strong employment growth in Gracemere South.


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As of 30 June 2031, urban based employment in the Rockhampton region is projected in the PAM to be 60,783 persons with 59,741 employed persons inside the PIA and 1,042 employed persons outside the PIA. Figure 18 shows projected employment growth inside the PIA between 2026 and 2031 by Reporting Area. As demonstrated in Figure 18, the greatest amount of employment growth is projected in Gracemere North, Kabra, Kawana and Rockhampton City.


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5.3 Ultimate Development

Ultimate development refers to the development yield permissible under the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme for land parcels having regard to allowable uses, development densities, lot size, internal road, park and drainage allowances, development constraints and development approvals. Ultimate development yield for the region is limited by zoned land within the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme and should not be considered a cap or constraint on growth within region.

Based on ultimate Gross Floor Area (GFA) and employment capacity analysis, the ultimate urban based employment is modelled in the PAM to be 226,058 persons with 168,469 employed persons inside the PIA and 57,589 employed persons outside the PIA. This ultimate employment identifies the total employment that can be generated within the identified settlement pattern of the planning scheme.

Figure 19 shows the ultimate employment capacity for Reporting Areas with number of employees greater than 200 persons. As demonstrated in Figure 19, the top ten Reporting Areas from highest to lowest include Rockhampton City, Berserker, Stanwell, Parkhurst, Kabra, Park Avenue, Norman Gardens, Gracemere North, Kawana and Gracemere South.

Figure 19 - Ultimate Employment Capacity by Reporting Area (where Employees > 200)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Empl

oyee

s


Table 21 - Existing and Projected Non-Residential Gross Floor Area (m2)

Reporting Area Reporting Category Gross Floor Area (m2) Per Time Period

Existing (2012) 2016 2021 2026 2031 Ultimate Allenstown Retail 39,435 40,346 60,760 60,760 60,760 237,994

Commercial 30,058 30,412 30,412 30,412 30,412 43,608 Industrial 15,964 15,964 29,941 29,941 29,941 81,999 Community Purposes 30,677 30,677 30,677 30,677 30,677 30,677 Total GFA 116,133 117,399 151,790 151,790 151,790 394,277

Berserker Retail 97,246 121,390 134,681 155,678 155,678 811,296 Commercial 28,270 41,593 48,029 67,575 67,575 181,579 Industrial 16,496 14,765 16,875 16,875 16,875 95,267 Community Purposes 31,349 31,349 31,349 31,349 31,349 31,349 Total GFA 173,362 209,097 230,933 271,476 271,476 1,119,490

Depot Hill Retail 2,412 2,412 2,412 2,412 2,412 2,412 Commercial 128 128 128 128 128 128 Industrial 22,848 22,848 22,848 22,848 22,848 22,848 Community Purposes 5,912 5,912 5,912 5,912 5,912 5,912 Total GFA 31,301 31,301 31,301 31,301 31,301 31,301

Frenchville Retail 8,479 11,551 11,551 11,551 11,551 12,657 Commercial 2,621 4,261 4,261 4,261 4,261 4,538 Industrial 717 717 717 717 717 717 Community Purposes 36,436 36,436 36,436 36,436 36,436 36,436 Total GFA 48,252 52,964 52,964 52,964 52,964 54,348

Gracemere North Retail 33,724 40,006 75,376 96,357 148,483 190,206 Commercial 2,350 4,558 16,348 23,342 42,025 56,992 Industrial 13,759 21,413 33,911 62,383 62,155 66,861 Community Purposes 17,190 17,190 17,190 17,190 17,190 17,190 Total GFA 67,023 83,167 142,825 199,272 269,854 331,249




Gracemere South Retail 1,595 1,595 1,595 1,595 1,595 1,086 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 16,916 104,882 246,035 603,093 603,093 767,153 Community Purposes 5,301 5,301 5,301 5,301 5,301 5,301 Total GFA 23,812 111,778 252,931 609,989 609,989 773,540

Kabra Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 0 0 0 0 126,082 126,082 Community Purposes 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total GFA 0 0 0 0 126,082 126,082

Kawana Retail 18,051 18,309 15,140 15,140 15,140 62,973 Commercial 4,256 4,870 4,391 4,391 4,391 2,992 Industrial 150,346 186,609 214,009 258,346 316,723 731,065 Community Purposes 36,454 36,454 36,454 36,454 36,454 36,454 Total GFA 209,107 246,242 269,994 314,331 372,708 833,484

Koongal Retail 5,263 5,263 5,263 5,263 5,263 5,263 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 2,591 2,591 2,591 2,591 2,591 5,861 Community Purposes 10,173 10,173 10,173 10,173 10,173 10,173 Total GFA 18,027 18,027 18,027 18,027 18,027 21,297

Lakes Creek Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 23,840 23,840 23,840 23,840 23,840 23,840 Community Purposes 2,723 2,723 2,723 2,723 2,723 2,723 Total GFA 26,564 26,564 26,564 26,564 26,564 26,564




Mount Morgan Retail 14,439 14,439 14,439 14,439 14,439 59,425 Commercial 2,191 2,191 2,191 2,191 2,191 19,740 Industrial 174 174 174 174 174 174 Community Purposes 25,531 25,531 25,531 25,531 25,531 25,531 Total GFA 42,335 42,335 42,335 42,335 42,335 104,869

Norman Gardens Retail 54,492 60,068 60,068 62,318 64,568 618,240 Commercial 2,981 5,295 5,295 6,795 8,295 8,295 Industrial 6,172 6,172 6,172 6,172 6,172 348 Community Purposes 84,243 84,243 84,243 84,243 84,243 84,243 Total GFA 147,888 155,778 155,778 159,528 163,278 711,125

Park Avenue Retail 85,167 87,181 87,181 87,181 87,181 528,071 Commercial 21,773 22,644 22,644 22,644 22,644 6,462 Industrial 94,582 94,582 94,582 94,582 94,582 283,247 Community Purposes 38,394 38,394 38,394 38,394 38,394 38,394 Total GFA 239,916 242,801 242,801 242,801 242,801 856,174

Parkhurst Retail 11,334 22,352 22,352 24,153 24,151 22,984 Commercial 3,772 6,866 6,866 7,606 7,606 7,448 Industrial 138,783 184,425 191,375 191,375 191,375 1,267,052 Community Purposes 7,201 7,201 7,201 7,201 6,344 6,344 Total GFA 161,090 220,843 227,794 230,335 229,476 1,303,829

Port Curtis Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community Purposes 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total GFA 0 0 0 0 0 0




Rockhampton City Retail 189,116 223,240 277,129 295,715 324,569 1,007,667 Commercial 195,672 205,219 213,372 211,093 219,567 530,947 Industrial 110,480 109,712 108,709 108,709 108,709 108,709 Community Purposes 38,455 38,455 38,455 38,455 38,455 38,455 Total GFA 533,723 576,627 637,666 653,973 691,301 1,685,779

The Common Retail 674 674 674 674 674 674 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community Purposes 7,032 7,032 7,032 7,032 7,032 7,032 Total GFA 7,706 7,706 7,706 7,706 7,706 7,706

The Mine Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community Purposes 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total GFA 0 0 0 0 0 0

The Range Retail 4,139 4,139 4,139 4,139 4,139 4,139 Commercial 1,051 1,051 1,051 1,051 1,051 1,051 Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community Purposes 101,614 101,614 101,614 101,614 101,614 101,614 Total GFA 106,803 106,803 106,803 106,803 106,803 106,803

Walterhall Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community Purposes 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total GFA 0 0 0 0 0 0




Wandal Retail 6,988 7,576 7,576 7,576 7,576 8,860 Commercial 1,937 2,278 2,278 2,278 2,278 2,599 Industrial 4,106 3,969 3,969 3,969 3,969 3,969 Community Purposes 49,752 49,752 49,752 49,752 49,752 49,752 Total GFA 62,784 63,575 63,575 63,575 63,575 65,180

West Rockhampton Retail 1,512 2,524 2,524 2,929 2,929 2,929 Commercial 2,350 4,374 4,374 5,184 5,184 5,184 Industrial 4,195 4,195 7,594 7,594 7,594 7,594 Community Purposes 3,302 5,327 5,327 6,136 6,136 6,136 Total GFA 11,360 16,421 19,819 21,843 21,843 21,843

Total Inside PIA Retail 574,066 663,065 782,859 847,880 931,107 3,576,876 Commercial 299,410 335,741 361,640 388,951 417,609 871,563 Industrial 621,969 796,858 1,003,342 1,433,210 1,617,441 3,592,786 Community Purposes 531,740 533,764 533,764 534,574 533,717 533,717 Total GFA 2,027,184 2,329,428 2,681,605 3,204,615 3,499,874 8,574,941

Total Outside PIA Retail 10,809 10,809 10,809 10,809 10,809 10,809 Commercial 230 230 230 230 230 230 Industrial 82,213 82,213 87,172 95,650 95,650 6,530,553 Community Purposes 26,496 26,496 26,496 26,496 26,496 26,496 Total GFA 119,747 119,747 124,707 133,184 133,184 6,568,088

Total Regional Area Retail 584,874 673,873 793,668 858,689 941,916 3,587,685 Commercial 299,640 335,971 361,870 389,181 417,839 871,793 Industrial 704,182 879,070 1,090,514 1,528,860 1,713,091 10,123,339 Community Purposes 558,236 560,260 560,260 561,070 560,213 560,213 Total GFA 2,146,931 2,449,175 2,806,312 3,337,799 3,633,058 15,143,029



Table 22 - Existing and Projected Employment

Reporting Area Reporting Category Employees Per Time Period


Allenstown Retail 878 909 1,253 1,253 1,253 5,405 Commercial 358 372 372 372 372 1,379 Industrial 160 160 299 299 299 820 Community Purposes 247 247 247 247 247 247 Total Employment 1,643 1,688 2,172 2,172 2,172 7,852

Berserker Retail 2,332 3,327 3,797 4,779 4,779 24,481 Commercial 1,131 1,664 1,921 2,703 2,703 7,263 Industrial 161 144 165 165 165 952 Community Purposes 225 225 225 225 225 225 Total Employment 3,849 5,359 6,109 7,872 7,872 32,921

Depot Hill Retail 26 26 26 26 26 26 Commercial 5 5 5 5 5 5 Industrial 175 175 175 175 175 175 Community Purposes 29 29 29 29 29 29 Total Employment 235 235 235 235 235 235

Frenchville Retail 191 405 405 405 405 449 Commercial 105 170 170 170 170 182 Industrial 7 7 7 7 7 7 Community Purposes 301 301 301 301 301 301 Total Employment 604 884 884 884 884 939

Gracemere North Retail 836 1,047 2,226 2,925 4,690 6,141 Commercial 94 182 654 934 1,681 2,280 Industrial 129 206 332 617 615 662 Community Purposes 109 109 109 109 109 109 Total Employment 1,168 1,544 3,321 4,585 7,095 9,192




Gracemere South Retail 27 27 27 27 27 13 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 162 846 1,997 5,252 5,252 6,853 Community Purposes 51 51 51 51 51 51 Total Employment 241 925 2,075 5,330 5,330 6,917

Kabra Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 0 0 0 0 841 841 Community Purposes 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Employment 0 0 0 0 841 841

Kawana Retail 382 417 344 344 344 1,187 Commercial 170 195 176 176 176 120 Industrial 1,451 1,814 2,088 2,531 3,115 7,311 Community Purposes 223 223 223 223 223 223 Total Employment 2,226 2,648 2,830 3,274 3,857 8,840

Koongal Retail 105 105 105 105 105 105 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 24 24 24 24 24 57 Community Purposes 95 95 95 95 95 95 Total Employment 224 224 224 224 224 257

Lakes Creek Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 159 159 159 159 159 159 Community Purposes 23 23 23 23 23 23 Total Employment 182 182 182 182 182 182




Mount Morgan Retail 267 267 267 267 267 1,893 Commercial 85 85 85 85 85 787 Industrial 2 2 2 2 2 2 Community Purposes 218 218 218 218 218 218 Total Employment 572 572 572 572 572 2,900

Norman Gardens Retail 1,231 1,473 1,473 1,537 1,602 10,638 Commercial 23 116 116 176 236 236 Industrial 62 62 62 62 62 3 Community Purposes 631 631 631 631 631 631 Total Employment 1,947 2,281 2,281 2,406 2,530 11,508

Park Avenue Retail 2,297 2,394 2,394 2,394 2,394 12,673 Commercial 681 716 716 716 716 144 Industrial 871 871 871 871 871 2,791 Community Purposes 215 215 215 215 215 215 Total Employment 4,064 4,196 4,196 4,196 4,196 15,822

Parkhurst Retail 118 643 643 754 754 726 Commercial 21 145 145 175 175 168 Industrial 1,257 1,711 1,780 1,780 1,780 11,392 Community Purposes 81 81 81 81 77 77 Total Employment 1,476 2,580 2,650 2,790 2,786 12,364

Port Curtis Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community Purposes 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Employment 0 0 0 0 0 0




Rockhampton City Retail 4,479 5,729 7,891 8,601 9,563 33,767 Commercial 6,770 7,152 7,478 7,387 7,726 20,193 Industrial 1,096 1,089 1,079 1,079 1,079 1,079 Community Purposes 367 367 367 367 367 367 Total Employment 12,713 14,337 16,816 17,434 18,735 55,406

The Common Retail 7 7 7 7 7 7 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community Purposes 28 28 28 28 28 28 Total Employment 35 35 35 35 35 35

The Mine Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community Purposes 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Employment 0 0 0 0 0 0

The Range Retail 81 81 81 81 81 81 Commercial 42 42 42 42 42 42 Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community Purposes 1,130 1,130 1,130 1,130 1,130 1,130 Total Employment 1,253 1,253 1,253 1,253 1,253 1,253

Walterhall Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community Purposes 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Employment 0 0 0 0 0 0




Wandal Retail 135 171 171 171 171 222 Commercial 77 91 91 91 91 104 Industrial 36 34 34 34 34 34 Community Purposes 223 223 223 223 223 223 Total Employment 471 520 520 520 520 584

West Rockhampton Retail 40 50 50 54 54 54 Commercial 94 175 175 207 207 207 Industrial 42 42 76 76 76 76 Community Purposes 28 68 68 84 84 84 Total Employment 204 335 369 422 422 422

Total Inside PIA Retail 13,431 17,078 21,162 23,731 26,522 97,869 Commercial 9,657 11,110 12,146 13,239 14,385 33,109 Industrial 5,794 7,345 9,150 13,134 14,556 33,214 Community Purposes 4,224 4,265 4,265 4,281 4,277 4,277 Total Employment 33,106 39,798 46,722 54,385 59,741 168,469

Total Outside PIA Retail 124 124 124 124 124 124 Commercial 9 9 9 9 9 9 Industrial 634 634 676 747 747 57,294 Community Purposes 162 162 162 162 162 162 Total Employment 929 929 971 1,042 1,042 57,589

Total Regional Area Retail 13,555 17,202 21,286 23,855 26,646 97,993 Commercial 9,666 11,120 12,155 13,248 14,394 33,118 Industrial 6,428 7,979 9,826 13,880 15,303 90,508 Community Purposes 4,386 4,427 4,427 4,443 4,440 4,440 Total Employment 34,036 40,728 47,694 55,427 60,783 226,058



6. Priority Infrastructure Area

The Priority Infrastructure Area (PIA) was determined in the fifth step of the PIP Planning Assumptions process. The PIA identifies sufficient land to accommodate forecast growth to 30 June 2031. It facilitates the delivery of services and infrastructure in the most efficient way. The PIP, in collaboration with the strategic settlement pattern zone allocations and provisions, will schedule infrastructure works to service development within the PIA.

The PIA is a two dimensional extent consisting of multiple geographically discreet areas and is to read in combination with development sequencing assumptions detailed in Appendix L. The PIA aligns with development sequencing assumptions and includes land sequenced to complete development by 30 June 2031 (includes Existing, 2012-2031, 2016, 2016+, 2021, 2021+, 2026 and 2031 timeframes in Appendix L).

Land sequenced to commence development after 30 June 2031 (2031+ timeframe) is outside the PIA and primarily applies to infill and redevelopment areas inside the PIA or greenfield land outside the PIA that are not required for 15 to 20 years of growth. The PIA aligns with the Rockhampton Region Planning Scheme Strategic Framework Settlement Pattern Maps urban and new urban designations and urban zones excluding rural residential land parcels not intended to be serviced with trunk infrastructure.

The PIA is shown in Appendix M.


7. Summary

7.1 Population

As of 30 June 2012, the estimated resident population (ERP) of the Rockhampton region is modelled in the PAM to be 83,992 persons with a non-resident population (NRP) of 4,958 persons and a total population (ERP plus NRP) of 88,951 persons (refer to Section 4.2.1). By 2031, it is projected that the total population will be 118,630 persons. As shown in Figure 20, the resident population of the Rockhampton Regional Council (RRC) area is projected in the PAM to grow slightly above the 2008 High Series population projection and somewhat in line with 2013 High Series population projection.

At a sub-regional level, the Mount Morgan area is projected to grow in line with 2008 Medium Series population projections and Rockhampton City and Fitzroy areas are projected to grow above 2008 Medium Series population projections, as shown in Figure 21.

Figure 22 shows the projected resident population for the RRC area by dwelling type.

A summary of population projections at a sub-regional scale is shown in Table 23. A summary of population inside and outside the PIA is shown in Table 24. The 2008, 2011 and 2013 Queensland Government population projections are shown in Table 25.

It should be noted that the PAM (including comparisons to Queensland Government population projections) was completed before de-amalgamation using the former RRC LGA (including Livingstone Shire Council Area). The PAM and Queensland Government population projections have since been split to include only the current RRC area.

Figure 20 - Planning Assumptions Model and Queensland Government ERP Projections

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Pers

ons

2008 Medium Series ERP Projection 2013 Medium Series ERP Projection

2008 High Series ERP Projection 2013 High Series ERP Projection

PAM ERP Projection


Figure 21 - Planning Assumptions Model and 2008 Queensland Government Sub-Regional ERP

Projections

Figure 22 - ERP Projections by Dwelling Type

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Pers

ons

Rockhampton City Area PAM ERP Projection

Rockhampton City Area 2008 Medium Series ERP Projection

Fitzroy Area PAM ERP Projection

Fitzroy Area 2008 Medium Series ERP Projection

Mount Morgan Area PAM ERP Projection

Mount Morgan Area 2008 Medium Series ERP Projection

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Pers

ons

Dwelling House Dual Occupancy Multiple Dwelling Other Dwelling


Table 23 - Planning Assumptions Model and Queensland Government ERP Projection Comparison

2012 (Existing) 2016 2021 2026 2031 Growth

Rate % ^

RRC Growth Share %

(2012-2031)

Rockhampton City Area




1,218 (1.8%)

3,702 (5.2%)

6,065 (8.2%)

6,740 (8.9%)

Fitzroy Area



Difference 1,121 (8.2%)

2,916 (19.4%)

3,099 (18.9%)

4,461 (25%)

4,613 (23.8%)

Mount Morgan Area



Difference -248 (-7.3%)

-292 (-8.4%)

-367 (-10.4%)

-441 (-12.2%)

-354 (-9.6%)

RRC LGA


1.4% 100.0% 2008 High Series Projection 85,805 90,122 94,936 99,683 104,393


1,660 (1.8%)

3,213 (3.4%)

5,775 (5.8%)

5,576 (5.3%)

Former RRC LGA (Including Livingstone Shire Council Area)


1.8% 2008 High Series Projection 123,409 131,714 142,343 153,483 164,745


1,324 (1%)

321 (0.2%)

2,883 (1.9%)

1,677 (1%)



Table 24 - Population Summary

2012 (Existing) 2016 2021 2026 2031

Total ERP in PIA 74,545 82,037 88,288 95,131 99,643

Total ERP Outside PIA 9,447 9,744 9,861 10,327 10,327

Total Non-Resident Population 4,958 5,902 7,140 7,900 8,660

Total RRC Population Projection (ERP plus NRP) 88,951 97,683 105,289 113,357 118,630

Table 25 – Queensland Government ERP Projection Summary

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Growth

Rate % ^

2008 Queensland Government ERP Projections

2008 Low Series Projection 82,239 85,130 87,578 89,947 92,284 0.6%

2008 Medium Series Projection 83,590 87,940 91,715 95,373 98,970 0.8%

2008 High Series Projection 84,641 90,122 94,936 99,683 104,393 1.1%




2013 Low Series Projection 78,939 85,800 91,675 97,105 102,539 1.3%


2013 High Series Projection 78,939 87,421 96,191 104,647 113,318 1.8%



7.2 Employment

As of 30 June 2012, the number of employed persons in urban based employment in the Rockhampton region is modelled in the PAM to be 34,036 (refer to Section 5.1.1). By 2031, it is projected that the total urban based employment in the Rockhampton Region will be 60,783 persons. Figure 23 below shows a comparison between employment and population projections (ERP plus NRP).

Figure 23 - RRC Population and Employment Projections

A summary of employment projections at a sub-regional scale and inside and outside the PIA is shown in Table 26. Employment projections for sub-regional areas are shown in Figure 24.

Table 26 - Employment Projection Summary

2012

(Existing) 2016 2021 2026 2031

Employment Projection by Sub-Regional Area Rockhampton City Area Employment 31,538 37,170 41,150 44,292 46,298 Fitzroy Area Employment 1,908 2,968 5,954 10,545 13,895 Mount Morgan Area Employment 590 590 590 590 590

Employment Projection Summary Total Employment in PIA 33,106 39,798 46,722 54,385 59,741 Total Employment Outside PIA 929 929 971 1,042 1,042 Total RRC Employment 34,036 40,728 47,694 55,427 60,783

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Pers

ons

RRC Population Projection (ERP plus NRP) RRC Employment Projection


Figure 24 - Employment Projections for Sub-Regional Areas

As shown in Figure 25, it is projected that retail and industrial development will drive employment growth, with steady growth in commercial based employment. As shown in Table 3 in Section 0, the retail category includes a broad range of retail land uses including shops and shopping centres through to food and drink outlets and the service industry. In comparison, the commercial category includes office type land uses.

Figure 25 - Employment Projections by Employment Category

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Empl

oyee

s

Rockhampton City Area Employment Fitzroy Area Employment

Mount Morgan Area Employment

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Empl

oyee

s

Retail Commercial Industrial Community Purposes


It was found that employment as a percentage of the population varied across the region and was dependent on the availability and sequencing of employment generating development in each sub-regional area. Table 27 shows sub-regional employment as a percentage of sub-regional estimated resident population (ERP).

Table 27 - Sub-Regional Employment as a Percentage of Sub-Regional ERP

2012 2016 2021 2026 2031 Rockhampton City Area 48% 53% 55% 55% 56% Fitzroy Area 13% 17% 31% 47% 58% Mount Morgan Area 19% 19% 19% 19% 18%

Table 27 demonstrates that employment as a percentage of population varies across the sub-regions. It also shows that the Fitzroy area will significantly increase this percentage from 13% in 2012 to 58% in 2031. This may be an indicator that inter-regional travel between place of residence and place of work (particularly travel from the Fitzroy area to work in Rockhampton City) may change as the Fitzroy area begins to be able to offer more employment.


7.3 Achieved Density

A comparison of the maximum possible dwelling per hectare yield and the average dwelling yield achieved in the PAM on residential greenfield land (> 2,500m2) is shown in Table 28.

The selection criteria used to select parcels for analysis are: • Parcels with an area larger than 2,500m2 – this ensures that only greenfield land is analysed; • Parcel with growth potential (i.e. Ultimate number of dwellings > Existing number of

dwellings); • Ultimate number of detached dwellings does not equal 1 – this removes any already

subdivided vacant lots

Table 28 - Comparison Between Maximum Possible Dwelling Yield and Average Achieved Dwelling Yield for Greenfield Residential Land

QPP Residential Zone

Maximum Possible Yield (dwellings/ha of net developable

area)

Average Yield Achieved in PAM

(dwellings/ha of net developable area)

Average Achieved Lot

Size Per Dwelling (m2)

Low density residential 15.3 11.7 855 Medium density residential 17.4 16.0 625 High density residential 610.0 610.0 16 Emerging community 15.3 11.3 883 Rural residential 0.5 0.5 20,000

Table 28 shows that after constrained land is removed the achieved yield is often less than the assumed density assumption for each zone. Consequently the achieved minimum lot size is often larger than the assumed minimum lot size for each zone. The current trend is towards reduced lot sizes in new master planned developments. For this reason, the higher assumed yields have been retained for planning purposes.


Appendices

Appendix A – Density Assumptions Table

Appendix B – Zoning

Appendix C – Precincts

Appendix D – Building Heights

Appendix E – PAM Reporting Areas

Appendix F – Constraints

Appendix G – Ultimate Dwelling Capacity

Appendix H – Ultimate Population Capacity

Appendix I – Ultimate GFA Capacity

Appendix J – Ultimate Employment Capacity

Appendix K – Development Probability

Appendix L – Development Sequencing Assumptions

Appendix M – Priority Infrastructure Area

Rockhampton Regional Council – Planning Assumptions Report Version 2 |

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-a-density-assumptions-table.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-b-zoning.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-c-precincts.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-d-building-heights.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-e-pam-reporting-areas.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-f-constraints.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-g-ultimate-dwelling-capacity.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-h-ultimate-population-capacity.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-i-ultimate-gfa-capacity.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-j-ultimate-employment-capacity.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-k-development-probability.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-l-development-sequencing-assumptions.pdf

http://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.gov.au/files/assets/public/regional-services/planning-building-plumbing/publications/planning-studies/appendix-m-pia.pdf

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Rockhampton Regional Council Planning Assumptions Report