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Taking Sides on Dark Energy Taking Sides on Dark Energy Taking Sides on Dark Energy Taking Sides on Dark Energy Rocky Kolb Rocky Kolb Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics The University of Chicago The University of Chicago Rocky Kolb Rocky Kolb Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics The University of Chicago The University of Chicago 

Rocky Kolb- Taking Sides on Dark Energy

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Taking Sides on Dark Energy Taking Sides on Dark Energy Taking Sides on Dark Energy Taking Sides on Dark Energy

Rocky Kolb Rocky Kolb

Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics The University of Chicago The University of Chicago

Rocky Kolb Rocky Kolb

Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics The University of Chicago The University of Chicago

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Cosmology 1000 years ago Cosmology 1000 years ago (and Kansas Today) (and Kansas Today)

Cosmolog

y 1000 years ago Cosmology 1000 years ago (and Kansas Today) (and Kansas Today)

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ν

ν

ν

Stars:0.8%

Chemical Elements:(other than H & He) 0.025%

Neutrinos:0.17%

Radiation:0.005%

Cold Dark Matter:(CDM) 25%

Dark Energy (ΛΛΛΛ):70%

H & He:gas 4%

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Precision Cosmology Precision Cosmology Precision Cosmology Precision Cosmology

The Standard Model ofcosmology suggests

physics beyond the

Dark Energy

++++Dark Matter++++

Seed Perturbations

Precision astronomy is helpful to physics!

particle physics! n at on++++Baryo/Leptogenesis

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"How helpful to us is astronomy's pedantic accuracy,

which I used to secretly ridicule!"

Precision Cosmology Precision Cosmology Precision Cosmology Precision Cosmology

Einstein’s statement to Arnold Sommerfeld on December 9, 1915 (regarding measurements of the advance of the perihelion of Mercury)

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Cosmological Constant (Dark Energy) Cosmological Constant (Dark Energy) Cosmological Constant (Dark Energy) Cosmological Constant (Dark Energy)

1917 Einstein proposedcosmological constant, ΛΛΛΛ.

1929 Hubble discoveredexpansion of the Universe.

1934 Einstein called it“my biggest blunder.”

1998 Astronomers foundevidence for it, and renamed

it “Dark Energy.”

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We infer acceleration/dark energy by comparing

observations

Do not directly observe • acceleration of the universe• dark energy

Cosmological Constant (Dark Energy) Cosmological Constant (Dark Energy) Cosmological Constant (Dark Energy) Cosmological Constant (Dark Energy)

All evidence for dark energy/acceleration comesfrom measuring the expansion history of the Universe

model

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Edwin

Hubble

University of Chicago 1909 National ChampionsUniversity of Chicago 1909 National Champions

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Hubble’s Discovery Paper Hubble’s Discovery Paper - - 1929 1929 Hubble’s Discovery Paper Hubble’s Discovery Paper - - 1929 1929

s

constantsHubble'

v

0

0

=

=

H

d H

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Riess et al.

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Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe

a&velocity: / H (Hubble’s constant)

distance: D / a (cosmic scale factor)

acceleration: a&& / − G ( ρ + 3 p )

s c a

l e f a c

t o r a

time

deceleration

0a <&&

3 0 p ρ + >

03 0

a p ρ >

+ <

&&

s c a

l e f a c

t o r a

time

Λ: p = − ρ

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Many observables based on H ( z)

• Luminosity distance Flux = (Luminosity / 4π d L2)

• Angular diameter distance α = Physical size / d A

Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe

• Age of the universe

• Volume (number counts) N / V −1( z)

• Distances

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Friedmann equation (G00 = 8π GT 00)

Hubbleconstant curvature matter radiation

Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )2 3 42 2

0 1 1 1k M R

H z H z z z = × Ω + + Ω + + Ω +

• Ω R: radiation contribution small for z 104

• “All of observational cosmology is a search for two numbers.”( H 0 and Ω M ) — Sandage, Physics Today, 1970

• Ωk + Ω M + Ω R = 1 ⇒ Ωk ≈ 1 − Ω M

• Ωk well determined (close to zero) from CMB, post 2000

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Hubble Diagram Hubble Diagram Hubble Diagram Hubble Diagram

o f s

t a n d a r d c a n d

l e

distant universepast velocity

acceleration1998–today

redshift of spectral lines a

p p a r e n t

b r i g

h t n e s

s

nearby universe

present velocity H 0

1929–1998

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t i e r e t a l . ( 2 0 0 6 )

S N L S

E i n s

t ei n- d e S i t t

s p a t i al l yf l a t ,ΩΩΩΩ

k

m a t t er - d o mi n a t e d

( m axi m u m t h e or e t i c

a s

t r o n o m

i c a

l n o

t a t i o n

s u p e r n o v a

b r i g

h t n e s s

h t e r

f a i n t e r →→→ →

Hubble Diagram Hubble Diagram Hubble Diagram Hubble Diagram

A

r : 0 0 0 0

,

o d el

l b l i s s )

c o n

f u s i n

r e l a t e d

t

←←← ← b

r i

supernova redshift z

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Friedmann equation (G00 = 8π GT 00)

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )2 3 42 2

0

01 1 11

k M R H z z H z z z

Λ = × Ω + + Ω + + Ω +Ω ++

Hubble cosmologicalconstant constant curvature matter radiation

Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe

• [Could add Ωwalls ( 1+ z )1]

• 1 = ΩΛ + Ωk + Ω M + Ω R

• Ωk well determined (close to zero) from CMB

• Ω M reasonably well determined

• Ω R: radiation contribution small for z 104

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t i e r e t a l . ( 2 0 0 6 )

S N L S

E i n s

t ei n- d e S i t t

s p a t i

al l yf l a t ,ΩΩΩΩ

k

m a t t er - d o mi n a t e d

( m axi m u m t h e or e t i c

ΛΛΛΛCDM

a s

t r o n o m

i c a

l n o

t a t i o n

s u p e r n o v a

b r i g

h t n e s s

h t e r

f a i n t e r →→→ →

Hubble Diagram Hubble Diagram Hubble Diagram Hubble Diagram

A

r : 0 0 0 0 ,

o d el

l b l i s s )

c o n

f u s

i n

r e l a t e d

t

←←← ← b

r i

supernova redshift z

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1. Find standard candle (SNe Ia)

2. Observe magnitude & redshift3. Assume a cosmological model

4. Compare observations & model

Astier et al. (2006)SNLS

Evidence For Evidence For

Dark Energy Dark Energy

Evidence For Evidence For

Dark Energy Dark Energy

2.0

1.5

1.0 Ω ΩΩ Ω Λ ΛΛ Λ

ΩΩΩΩ M

5. Fit needs cosmoillogical constant

ρ V ∼ 10−30

g cm−3

Einstein–de Sitter model

Assumes w = −1 (i.e., Λ)Assumes priors on H 0, etc.

0.5

0

0 0.5 1.0

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Friedmann equation (G00 = 8π GT 00)

( ) ( )( )

( ) ( ) ( )2 312 3 42

0 1 11 1w

w k M R H z z H z z z

+ = × Ω + + Ω + + Ω ++ +Ω

dark

energy curvature matter radiation

Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe Expansion History of the Universe

Equation of state parameter: w = p / ρ (w = −1 for Λ)

if w = w( z): ( )

( )

( )

3 1

01 exp 3 1

zw dz

z w z z

+ ′′+ → − +

′ ∫parameterize: w( z) = w0 + wa z / (1 + z)

Cosmology is a search for two numbers (w0 and wa).

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The construction of a model … consists of snatching from theenormous and complex mass of facts called reality a few simple,

easily managed key points which, when put together in somecunning way, becomes for certain purposes a substitute for realityitself.

Evsey Domar20 th -century economist

ΛΛΛΛΛΛΛΛCDM:CDM: The Standard Model The Standard Model ΛΛΛΛΛΛΛΛCDM:CDM: The Standard Model The Standard Model

Earth

MarsEpicycle

Deferent

Eccentric

×Equant

This cosmological model

agreed with observationsfor 1300 years!

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10–30 g cm−−−−3333

The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant

So small, and yet not zero!

The Cosmological Constant The Cosmological Constant The Cosmological Constant The Cosmological Constant

The Unbearable Lightness of Nothing

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Dark (and Useless) Energy

1 MeV liter−−−−1111

The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant

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( ) ( )4 4

30 -3 4 310 g cm 10 eV 10 cm ρ −

− − −

Λ

Illogical magnitude (what’s it related to?):

( ) ( )

2 229 33

8 10 cm 10 eVGπ ρ

−−

ΛΛ =

The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant

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classical

0 E =

quantum12

E ω = h

All fields: harmonic oscillators with zero-point energy

The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant

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All fields: harmonic oscillators with zero-point energy

Gravitons: Vacuum energy

e+

e-

g

Photons: Lamb shift

e+

e-

γ γγ γ

The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant

3 2 2 3C

all particles all particles

d k k m dk k ρ Λ

= ± + ±∑ ∑∫ ∫

4

4 90 3

4 30 3

4 30 3

: bad prediction

: 10 g cm

: 10 g cm

10 eV: Observed 10 g cm

C

C Pl Pl

C SUSY SUSY

C

M M

M M

ρ ρ

ρ

ρ

Λ

+ −

Λ

+ −

Λ

− − −

Λ

Λ = ∞ = ∞ =

Λ = = =

Λ = = =

Λ = = =

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high- temperature

-

V ((((φ φφ φ ))))

The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant

φ φφ φ

temperature

∆∆∆∆V = Λ= Λ= Λ= Λ

GUT: 1010101074747474 g cm−−−−3333 SUSY: 1010101030303030 g cm−−−−3333

EWK: 1010101024242424 g cm−−−−3333 CHIRAL: 1010101013131313 g cm −−−−3333

OBSERVED: 10101010−−−−30303030

g cm

−−−−3333

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The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant

Th C ill i l CTh C ill i l CTh C ill i l CTh C ill i l C

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( ) ( )4 4

30 -3 4 310 g cm 10 eV 10 cm ρ −

− − −

Λ

Illogical magnitude (what’s it related to?):

( ) ( )

2 229 33

8 10 cm 10 eVGπ ρ

−−

ΛΛ =

Illogical timing (cosmic coincidence?):

The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant

BBNEWKGUT

ΛΩ

M RΩ + Ω

REC TODAY

Th C ill i l C t tTh C ill i l C t tTh C ill i l C t tTh C ill i l C t t

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The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant

Global warming, but universal cooling:

The Universe is cold and dark….and getting colder and darker!

Th C ill i l C t tTh C ill i l C t tTh C ill i l C t tTh C ill i l C t t

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t i e r e t a l . ( 2 0 0 6 )

S N L S

E i n s t ei n- d e S i t t

s p a t i al l yf l a t ,ΩΩΩΩ

k

m a t t er - d

o mi n a t e d

( m axi m u m

t h e or e t i c

ΛΛΛΛCDM

a s

t r o n o m

i c a

l n o

t a t i o n

s u p e r n o v a

b r i g

h t n e s s

The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant

A

r

:

=1 =1 =1 =1 ,

o d el

l

b l i s s )

c o n

f u s

i n

r e l a t e d t

supernova redshift z

3) Baryon acoustic oscillations

4) Weak lensing

1) Hubble diagram (SNe)

2) Cosmic Subtraction

The case for ΛΛΛΛ:5) Galaxy clusters6) Age of the universe7) Structure formation

Th C ill i l C t tTh C ill i l C t tTh C ill i l C t tTh C ill i l C t t

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dynamics x-ray gaslensing

The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant The Cosmoillogical Constant

cmb powerspectrum

ΩΩΩΩTOTAL ==== 1 Ω1 Ω1 Ω1 Ω M ∼∼∼∼ 0.30.30.30.3

CMB many methods

1.01.01.01.0 −−−− 0.3 = 0.70.3 = 0.70.3 = 0.70.3 = 0.7 ≠≠≠≠ 0000

How We “Know” Dark Energy ExistsHow We “Know” Dark Energy ExistsHow We “Know” Dark Energy ExistsHow We “Know” Dark Energy Exists

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How We “Know” Dark Energy Exists How We “Know” Dark Energy Exists How We “Know” Dark Energy Exists How We “Know” Dark Energy Exists

• Assume model cosmology: – Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) model

Friedmann equation: H 2 = 8π G ρ / 3 − k/a2

– Energy (and pressure) content: ρ = ρ M + ρ R + ρ Λ + … – Input or integrate over cosmological parameters: H 0, Ω B, etc .

• Calculate observables d L( z) , d A( z) , H ( z), …

• Compare to observations

• Model cosmology fits with ρ Λ, but not without ρ Λ

• All evidence for dark energy is indirect : observed H ( z) is not described by H ( z) calculated from the Einstein-de Sitter model

[spatially flat (from CMB) ; matter dominated ( ρ = ρ M )]

Taking Sides!Taking Sides!Taking Sides!Taking Sides!

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Taking Sides! Taking Sides! Taking Sides! Taking Sides!

• Can’t hide from the data – ΛCDM too good to ignore – SNe

– Subtraction: 1.0 − 0.3 = 0.7

– Baryon acoustic oscillations – Galaxy clusters – Weak lensing –

H ( z) not given by

Einstein–de Sitter

G00 (FLRW) ≠ 8π GT 00(matter)

• Modify left-hand side of Einstein equations (∆G00)

3. Beyond Einstein (non-GR)

4. (Just) Einstein (back reaction of inhomogeneities)

• Modify right-hand side of Einstein equations (∆T 00)

1. Constant (“just” a cosmoillogical constant)

2. Not constant (dynamics described by a scalar field)

Tools to Modify the RightTools to Modify the Right Hand SideHand SideTools to Modify the RightTools to Modify the Right Hand SideHand Side

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1964 Austin-Healey Sprite

Tools to Modify the Right Tools to Modify the Right- -Hand Side Hand Side Tools to Modify the Right Tools to Modify the Right- -Hand Side Hand Side

1974 Fiat 128

Tools to Modify the RightTools to Modify the Right Hand SideHand SideTools to Modify the RightTools to Modify the Right Hand SideHand Side

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scalar fields(quintessence)

Tools to Modify the Right Tools to Modify the Right- -Hand Side Hand Side Tools to Modify the Right Tools to Modify the Right- -Hand Side Hand Side

anthropic principle

(the landscape)

Duct Tape

Anthropic/Landscape/DUCTtapeAnthropic/Landscape/DUCTtapeAnthropic/Landscape/DUCTtapeAnthropic/Landscape/DUCTtape

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Anthropic/Landscape/DUCTtape Anthropic/Landscape/DUCTtape Anthropic/Landscape/DUCTtape Anthropic/Landscape/DUCTtape

• Many sources of vacuum energy

• String theory has many (>10500 ?) vacua

• Some of them correspond to cancellations that yield a small Λ

• Although exponentially uncommon, they are preferred because …

• More common values of Λ results in an inhospitable universe

Quintessence/Quintessence/WDWD 4040Quintessence/Quintessence/WDWD 4040

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Quintessence/ Quintessence/ WDWD– – 4040Quintessence/ Quintessence/ WDWD– – 4040

• Many possible contributions.

• Why then is total so small?

• Perhaps unknown dynamics sets global

vacuum energy equal to zero……but we’re not there yet!

V (φ )

φ 0

ΛΛΛΛ

Requires mφ ; 10−33 eV

Tools to Modify the LeftTools to Modify the Left--Hand SideHand SideTools to Modify the LeftTools to Modify the Left--Hand SideHand Side

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Tools to Modify the Left Tools to Modify the Left- -Hand Side Hand Side Tools to Modify the Left Tools to Modify the Left- -Hand Side Hand Side

• Braneworld modifies Friedmann equation

• Gravitational force law modified at large distance

• Tired gravitons

Five-dimensional at cosmic distances

Deffayet, Dvali& Gabadadze

Gravitons metastable - leak into bulk Gregory, Rubakov & Sibiryakov;

Dvali, Gabadadze & Porrati

Binetruy, Deffayet, Langlois

• Gravity repulsive at distance R ≈ Gpc

• n = 1 KK graviton mode very light, m ≈ (Gpc)−1

• Einstein & Hilbert got it wrong f ( R)

• “Backreaction” of inhomogeneities

Kogan, Mouslopoulos,Papazoglou, Ross & Santiago

Csaki, Erlich, Hollowood & Terning

Räsänen; Kolb, Matarrese, Notari & Riotto;Notari; Kolb, Matarrese & Riotto

( ) ( )1 4 416S G d x g R Rπ µ

= − −∫Carroll, Duvvuri, Turner, Trodden

Backreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of Inhomogeneities

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Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities

Homogeneous model Inhomogeneous model

h ρ ( )ix ρ r

h h

h h h

a V H a a

∝= &

3

i i

i i i

a V

H a a∝

= &

( )h i x ρ ρ =r

We think not!

?h i

H H ⇒ =

(Buchert & Ellis)

Backreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of Inhomogeneities

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• The expansion rate of an inhomogeneous universe of averagedensity ⟨ ρ ⟩ need NOT be! the same as the expansion rate of a

homogeneous universe of average density ⟨ ρ ⟩!

Ellis, Barausse, Buchert

Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities

equation — the new term need not satisfy energy conditions!

• We deduce dark energy because we are comparing to the wrongmodel universe.

Räsänen; Kolb, Matarrese, Notari & Riotto; Schwarz

Backreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of Inhomogeneities

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• Most conservative approach — nothing new – no new fields (like 10−33 eV mass scalars)

– no extra long-range forces

– no modification of general relativity

– no modification of gravity at large distances

– no Lorentz violation

Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities

, , , .

– no anthropic/landscape/faith-based reasoning

• Magnitude?: calculable from observables related to δρ / ρ

• Why now?: acceleration triggered by era of non-linear structure

• Possible attractor for effective ΩΛ

Backreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of InhomogeneitiesBackreaction of Inhomogeneities

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ΛCDM is the correct phenomenological model, but …

… there is no dark energy, gravity is not modified,

and the universe is not accelerating (in the usual sense).

Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities Backreaction of Inhomogeneities

Dark EnergyDark EnergyDark EnergyDark Energy

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"Nothing more can be done by the theorists. In thismatter it is only you, the astronomers, who can perform

a simply invaluable service to theoretical physics."

Einstein in August 1913 to Berlin astronomer Erwin Freundlich encouraging him to mount an ex edition to measure the deflection of

Dark Energy Dark Energy Dark Energy Dark Energy

light by the sun.

Observational ProgramObservational ProgramObservational ProgramObservational Program

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H ( z)

d L( z) d A( z) V ( z)

baryonosc.

stronglensing

weaklensing

supernova clusters clustersstronglensing

Observational Program Observational Program Observational Program Observational Program

Growth ofstructure

clusters

weak

lensing P( k,z)

Test gravity

solarsystem

millimeterscale accelerators P( k,z)

2 4 0k k k

H Gδ δ π ρδ + − =&& &

source?

Supernova Type Ia Supernova Type Ia Supernova Type Ia Supernova Type Ia

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Supe o a ype aSupe o a ype aSupe o a ype aSupe o a ype a

• Measure redshift and intensity as function of time (light curve)

• Systematics (dust, evolution, intrinsic luminosity dispersion, etc.)

• A lot of information per supernova

• Well developed and practiced

• Present procedure:

– Discover SNe by wide-area survey (the “easy” part) – Follow up with spectroscopy (the “hard” part)

(requires a lot of time on 8m-class telescopes)

– Photometric redshifts?

Photometric Redshifts Photometric Redshifts Photometric Redshifts Photometric Redshifts

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Traditional redshiftfrom spectroscopy

Photometric redshiftfrom multicolor

photometry

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations

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yyyyPre-recombination

• universe ionized• photons provide enormouspressure and restoring force

• perturbations oscillate(acoustic waves)

Post-recombination

• universe neutral• photons travel freely(decoupled from baryons)

• perturbations grow(structure formation)

B i g

B a n g T

o d a y

Time

ionized neutral

recombination

z » 1100110011001100

t » 380,000380,000380,000380,000 yrT ∼ 3000∼ 3000∼ 3000∼ 3000 K

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Eisenstein

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Eisenstein

Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations

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yyyy

• Acoustic oscillation scale depends on Ω M h2

and Ω Bh2

(set by CMB acoustic oscillations)

• It is a small effect (Ω B h2 ¿ Ω M h2)

• Dark energy enters through d A and H

Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations

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• Virtues

– Pure geometry.

– Systematic effects should be small.

• Problems:

– Amplitude small, require large scales, huge volumes

– Photometric redshifts?

– Nonlinear effects at small z, cleaner at large z ∼ 2−3, but …

dark energy is not expected to be important at large z

Weak Lensing Weak Lensing Weak Lensing Weak Lensing

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bδθ

dark energyaffects growth

rate of M

4 LS

OS

DGM

b Dδθ =

dark energy

affects geometricdistance factors

observe

deflectionangle

Weak Lensing Weak Lensing Weak Lensing Weak Lensing

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Space vs. Ground:

• Space: no atmosphere PSF

• S ace: Near IR for hoto- ’s

The signal from any single galaxy is very small,

but there are a lot of galaxies! Require photo- z’s?

• DES (2012)

– 1000’s of sq. degs.deep multicolor data

• Ground: larger aperture

• Ground: less expensive

• LSST (2015) – full hemisphere,very deep 6 colors

• JDEM/Euclid (???)

Galaxy Clusters Galaxy Clusters Galaxy Clusters Galaxy Clusters

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Cluster redshift surveys measure• cluster mass, redshift, and spatial clustering

Sensitivity to dark energy• volume-redshift relation

• angular-diameter distance–redshift relation•

• amplitude of clustering

Problems:• cluster selection must be well understood

• proxy for mass?• need photo- z’s

What’s Ahead What’s Ahead What’s Ahead What’s Ahead

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ATLAS

SKAFMOS WFMOS

SDSS

Lensing CFHTLS

ATLAS KIDS

DES, VISTA

JDEM

LSST SKA

Pan-STARRS

SUBARU

20202008

DUNE

2010

BAO LSST

SDSSDLS

LAMOST

Hyper suprime

DES, VISTA,VIRUS

Pan-STARRSHyper suprime JDEM

2015

CMB WMAP 2/3 WMAP 5 yr

Planck Planck 4yr

Clusters AMI

SZA

APEX

AMIBA

SPT

ACT

DES

SNePan-STARRSDES LSST

JDEMSDSS CFHTLSCSP ESSENCE

XCS

Roger Davies

Taking Sides Taking Sides Taking Sides Taking Sides

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The expansion history of the universe is not described by the

Einstein-de Sitter model:

Explanations:

1. Well established: Supernova Ia

2. Circumstantial: subtraction, age, structure formation, …

3. Emergent techniques: baryon acoustic oscillations, clusters, weak lensing

. -

• Constant vacuum energy, i.e., a cosmoillogical constant• Time varying vacuum energy, i.e., quintessence

2. Left-Hand Side

• Modification of GR

• Standard cosmological model (FLRW) not applicable

Phenomenology:1. Measure evolution of expansion rate: is w = −1?

2. Order of magnitude improvement feasible

“To me every hour ofthe light and dark is

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– Walt Whitman

the light and dark is

a miracle. Everycubic inch of spaceis a miracle.”

Every cubic inch ofspace is a miracle!• cosmic radiation• virtual particles• Higgs potential• extra dimensions• dark matter

• dark energy

Chemical Elements:(other than H & He) 0.025%

Radiation:0.005%

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ν

ν

ν

Stars:0.8%

(other than H & He) 0.025%

Neutrinos:0.17%

Cold Dark Matter:(CDM) 25%

Dark Energy (ΛΛΛΛ):

70%

H & He:gas 4%

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I must reject fluids and ethers of all kinds, magnetical,electrical, and universal, to whatever quintessential

thinness they may be treble-distilled and (as it were)super-substantiated.

Samuel Taylor Coleridge

Theory of Life (1816)

Taking Sides on Dark Energy Taking Sides on Dark Energy Taking Sides on Dark Energy Taking Sides on Dark Energy

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Rocky Kolb Rocky Kolb Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics

The University of Chicago The University of Chicago

Rocky Kolb Rocky Kolb Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics Enrico Fermi Institute & Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics

The University of Chicago The University of Chicago

Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations Baryon Acoustic Oscillations

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• Each overdense region is anoverpressure that launches a

spherical sound wave

• Wave travels outward at c / √ 3• Photons decouple, travel to us

WMAP

acoustic peaks

• Sound speed plummets,wave stalls

• Total distance traveled 150 Mpcimprinted on power spectrum

SDSS

DETF* Experimental Strategy: DETF* Experimental Strategy: DETF* Experimental Strategy: DETF* Experimental Strategy:

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• Determine as well as possible whether the acceleratingexpansion is consistent with being due to a cosmologicalconstant. (Is w = −1?)

• If the acceleration is not due to a cosmological constant, probe

the underlying dynamics by measuring as well as possible the. w z .

• Search for a possible failure of general relativity throughcomparison of the effect of dark energy on cosmic expansionwith the effect of dark energy on the growth of cosmological

structures like galaxies or galaxy clusters. (Hard to quantify.)

* Dark Energy Task Force

DETF Cosmological Model DETF Cosmological Model DETF Cosmological Model DETF Cosmological Model

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0( ) (1 )aw a w w a= + −Parameterize dark-energy equation of state parameter w as:

• Today (a = 1) w(1) = w0

• In the far past (a→ 0) w(0) = w0

+ wa

Standard eight-dimensional cosmological model:

w0

: the present value of the dark-energy eos parameter

wa : the rate of change of the dark-energy eos parameter

Ω DE : the present dark-energy density

Ω M : the present matter density

Ω B : the present baryon density H 0 : the Hubble constant

δζ : amplitude of rms primordial curvature fluctuations

nS : the spectral index of primordial perturbations.

w

ww(( a a)) ======== ww00000000 + + ww a a((11111111−−−−−−−− a a))ww(( a a)) ======== ww00000000 + + ww a a((11111111−−−−−−−− a a))w = present value

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w a

DETF figure of merit:−−−−1111

w0 = present value

wa = early value

w0000−−−−1111

Systematics Are The Key Systematics Are The Key Systematics Are The Key Systematics Are The Key

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The Power of Two (or 3, or 4) The Power of Two (or 3, or 4) The Power of Two (or 3, or 4) The Power of Two (or 3, or 4)

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CombinedFigure of merit = 100= 100= 100= 100

Technique AFigure of merit = 20= 20= 20= 20

Technique ZFigure of merit = 20= 20= 20= 20

My guess of

OngoingFOM ∼ 3× ongoing

Next step Ultimate

FOM ∼ 10 × ongoing

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My guess of

futureprogress

95% C.L.

Acceleration From Inhomogeneities Acceleration From Inhomogeneities Acceleration From Inhomogeneities Acceleration From Inhomogeneities

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• Most conservative approach — nothing new – no new fields (like 10−33 eV mass scalars)

– no extra long-range forces

– no modification of general relativity – no modification of gravity at large distances

– no Lorentz violation

– no extra dimensions, bulks, branes, etc.

– no anthropic/landscape/faith-based reasoning

• Magnitude?: calculable from observables related to δρ / ρ

• Why now?: acceleration triggered by era of non-linear structure

Acceleration From Inhomogeneities Acceleration From Inhomogeneities Acceleration From Inhomogeneities Acceleration From Inhomogeneities

Vi l f t t d f it ti l fi ld

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• View scale factor as zero-momentum mode of gravitational field

• In homogeneous/isotropic model it is the only degree of freedom

• Inhomogeneities: non-zero modes of gravitational field

• Non-zero modes interact with and modify zero-momentum mode

cosmology scalar-field theory

zero-mode a hφ i (vev of a scalar field)

non-zero modes inhomogeneities thermal/finite-density bkgd.

modify a(t ) modify hφ (t )ie.g., acceleration e.g., phase transitions

physical effect

Acceleration From Inhomogeneities Acceleration From Inhomogeneities Acceleration From Inhomogeneities Acceleration From Inhomogeneities

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• Expansion rate of

inhomogeneous Universe ≠

expansion rate of homogeneousUniverse with ρ = h ρ i

• Model an inhomogeneousUniverse as a homogeneous

Universe model with ρ = h ρ i

Standard approach Our approach

zeromode [effective scalefactor is a D ≡ V D

1/3 ]

• Effective scale factor has a

(global) effect on observables

• Potentially can account foracceleration without

dark energy or modified GR

• a(t V s t e zeromo e o

a homogeneous model

with ρ = h ρ i

• Inhomogeneities only have a

local effect on observables

• Cannot account for observed

acceleration