ESKOM 2014

Holding slide as guests enter auditorium.

Guests seated

Safety briefing

CUT LIVE CAMERA TO SCREEN

Safety briefing – Eskom safety marshall

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MC to stage to welcome guests

MC to stage to intro Dr. Steve Lennon for the welcoming address and setting the scene

After welcoming address and setting the scene by Dr. Steve Lennon the panel will enter to stage and take their seats:

Host: TBC

Al’Louise van Deventer – National Control Centre Manager

Dr. Richard Candy – National Control Centre Interface Specialist

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Start of event

Host Q: Who are you and what do you do?

A: Al’Louise and Richard to introduce themselves and the roles they fulfill at the National Control Centre

Host Q: Thank you Al’Louise and Richard. The purpose of us being here today is to discuss the management of a power system. Now, for me and I am sure for many people out there this is a complex and tricky situation with many variables. What happens when it is not managed effectively?

A: Let me refer to the map of the world on the screen. This map refers to all the countries and cities in the world that experienced a complete blackout in 2013.

Host Q: Ok, what is a complete blackout?

A: A complete blackout occurs when there is too much demand for electricity and if there are no options to restore the balance leads to the uncontrollable cascading and tripping of all generation and load on the power system.. And that is why it is so important for us to manage our power system. We

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will be explaining the Eskom value chain today so that you have a clear idea of what we do to manage our power system to prevent a complete blackout. In SA this is particularly important. The reason to prevent a complete blackout is this:

If you look at the map, you will see many other cities and countries experienced complete blackouts. For them to re-start their system, they are able to tap into a power system from a neighbour. So such a re-start takes a few hours or days. For SA, we do not have the luxury of tapping into another grid to re-start and we have to rely on our blackstart plant to start the system from scratch and then spread it from there to provide power to the rest of the country, one power plant at a time. This process could take about two weeks; you can imagine the severity of the problem if we do not have power for two weeks…

Host Q: I don’t even want to think of the consequences of not having power for two weeks. Ok, so let’s start to understand this power system you refer to. Whenever there is a reference to power, I immediately think of Eskom. However this is not correct as there are other role-players in the supply of power to consumers. ,

A: Eskom’s electricity value chain will be explained to give you an understanding of who and what Eskom is and leads into who the customers are

Yes, that’s very true; Eskom is not the only player when it comes to electricity. There are a couple of key areas:

1) Generation – this is the process of generating electricity through the transformation of other energy sources – we will look at this in more detail in a bit

2) Transmission – these are the lines that run from the Power plant to a substation, so we have to transmit the electricity along these lines to a substation near your I would like to show the slide of the grid here

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3) Distribution – Once we have transmitted the electricity to a sub-station near you the power is then re-distributed to the Customers including municipalities.

Eskom has about 5.1 million direct customers to whom we distribute electricity.

Municipalities are customers of Eskom and we supply electricity to them, so we transmit the electricity to them along Eskom lines to the municipal sub-station. The municipality then distributes the electricity to their customers. Customers need to always make sure who the entity is that sells them the electricity, Eskom, or their municipality. For the majority of residents, farmers and businesses in South Africa it will be a municipality that sells them electricity.

4) Demand – this comprises the users of electricity.

5) Raw materials – this refers to coal, nuclear fuel, water and all other resources required in the process of generating electricity

Q: Thank you for that clarity on the electricity value chain, so let us look at each of these in a bit more detail. Generation, explain to us what resources are used by Eskom to generate electricity?

A: As can be seen we have 13 coal powered stations totaling 35,700 MWs of available output.

We use coal because:

Abundance of coal as a natural resource in SA

It is a relatively safe way of generating electricity

It is the cheapest way of generating electricity

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We also have one nuclear power station that provide 1800 MWs.

However the cost of building additional nuclear power stations is very high compared to building coal power stations

We use out coal and nuclear power stations to meet the base load capacity for South Africa. (It takes days to start and stop nuclear and coal fired power stations.)

We also have additional power stations that provide power during peak periods which we call peaking plant.

These are the hydro power stations and Open Cycle Gas Turbines power stations.

These are mainly used during peak times and when we require additional supply because there is too much demand.

Peaking plant by its very nature can be started very quickly.

The OCGTs power stations can provide electricity to the grid within about 15 minutes from the time we start them up. Unfortunately, the cost to operate these power stations is very big and for the last few years, we have had to run them continuously to secure supply to SA.

We also have a few non Eskom Independent and Renewable Power Producers that contribute to the total generation mix.

We also have renewable generation which we call REIPPs who provide energy from the sun, wind and Bio Mass. We are unable to rely on them during the peak as their output is not reliable or deterministic.

Host Q: Ok, so how much electricity do you generate every day?

A: At any one moment in time, we have the capacity to generate 35.000 MW, but it is not all that simple…

Although SA has many generating options as described and we have the capacity to generate 35,000 MW. This includes 1500 MWs from Chorra Bassa in Mozambique which use HV DC to deliver the energy to South Africa.

Under specific conditions the demand in more than our generation capability.

When we are really constrained we also purchase a small amount of energy from our Southern African neighbors.

Host Q: Understood, so then what happens during load reduction to the connections to our neighbours?

A: During load curtailment conditions we do not sell any energy to our neighbours.

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Host Q: So, let me understand this up to now. Eskom generates electricity mainly through coal power stations and with one nuclear power station and a little bit of wind and solar with a few independent power producers operating in the country already?

A: Yes, that’s correct.

Host Q: Then, Eskom transmits this generated electricity along the power lines we see running between these massive pylon’s to a sub-station where either Eskom, or the municipality that owns that sub-station then distributes the electricity to their respective customers?

A: Spot on.

Host Q: Ok, so then, all these customers that use electricity make up the demand side of your business as you refer to it? Explain this to me.

A: Yes, we categorise users in 3 basic groups

Industrial – Large Industrial consumers, Rail, Mining, Agriculture

Commercial (office blocks, shopping centers, small consumers)

Residential.

This makes up the demand as a whole.

Host Q: Ok, so how does the demand change during the day?

A: There are many factors that influence the amount of electricity that our users demand and we have to try and balance the demand by supplying them with electricity that we have generated.

We know and can predict the user’s demand accurately based on historical behavior.

The predictions can be upset by weather and sudden socio economical events such as a severe cold front or sports events, school holidays and industrial strike action.

What we do know is that the demand peaks twice a day.

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The reason the demand is much higher during these two periods, is that almost all the users (as we mentioned before) demand this electricity usage AT THE SAME TIME.

This is particularly problematic during the winter evening peak between 5pm to 9pm because so many businesses still use a lot of electricity and then so many residential customers arrive home and start cooking, switch on lights, bath the children and then watch television.

All these events take place at the same time which creates the peak as shown in the above slide.

In summer the demands profile is slightly different which we will explain later.

To demonstrate, one element, let us look at how a cold front moving across the country influences the demand…

A: You will notice from the data on screen, that as a cold front moves across the country, we generally experience as much as a 500MW increase in demand for every roughly 1 degree celsius drop in temperature.

So, the big crux here is that when we have a typically mild SA winter’s day we would use in the region of about 34 000MW at any one time during the day.

The moment the cold front moves across and the temperature drops by about 6 degrees, within a few hours, the demand increases to about 37 000MW. And remember, we still have to keep some in reserve, in case a technical fault arises.

Host Q: Explain why it is important to have reserve…

A: The key importance to have reserve is to cater for unexpected changes on both sides to the equation.

We need to be able to cater for the loss of a large generator and the demand increase as listed above.

In case a technical fault occurs and we have a trip of a unit or multiple units, and this can happen at any time without warning.

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You see, what we ultimately have to achieve to prevent a complete blackout, is to maintain our power system on a frequency level of 50Hz.

Why 50Hz you may ask?

Well, that is just what we inherited from the rest of the world that is the standard.

So, let me explain this 50Hz thing. So, if you look at the animation on screen, you will notice the see-saw effect.

When there is too much electricity being generated, the frequency increases to above 50Hz and when there is too much demand the frequency decreases to below 50Hz.

Car analogy to explain how load effects the frequency.

Host Q: Ok, so we understand that you have to keep things in balance to prevent a blackout, which, as you mentioned at the beginning can be rather catastrophic for South Africa. So how do you keep this power system in balance?

A: Yes, keeping the power system balanced at 50Hz is critical to prevent a blackout, and that is our daily function (refer to Al’Louise and Richard). Therefore, we have an agreement in place with the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) that we are able to implement a process of Load Reduction to keep the power system in balance.

Load Reduction has two components:

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1) The first is referred to as load curtailment.

During this process or phase, we (Eskom) have an agreement with some of our large industrial customers, where we are able to request them to reduce their electricity usage in order for Eskom to have sufficient supply to meet the demand. Large industrial customers are able to reduce their load by up to 10%, however this takes a minimum of 2 hours to implement.

2) The Second is implementation of Rotational Load Reduction.

This process involve the physical interruption of individual customers electrical supply by either Eskom the municipalities.

When we reach the point of load reduction, we refer users to schedules… (Next slide)

If you are supplied by Eskom directly, the schedule is available on the Eskom website

If, however, you are supplied by a municipality, your load shedding schedules will be published by your municipality and you need to contact them for accurate information.

Host Q: Noted. So when there is too much demand, I assume you make the decision to say we are going to load shed? Take me through the process…

A: Once we know that we need to implement load reduction we firstly decide by how much demand that we need to curtail.

When we know that we have a generation problem, we determine the size of the gap between what is needed and what we have available. Based on the size of the difference we will implement the procedures and notify customers in accordance with NRS 048.

Host: What happened on the 6th March when we had the first case of rotational load reduction this year?

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Let’s first look at a normal day, in this case 14th March…

Then 6th March…

As we can see from the data on screen for 6 March, the problem of meeting the demand for day became evident at 04:25 am.

I was informed and this information was also relayed to Emergency Response Team at Eskom and I (Al’louise) advised that we need to reduce load immediately as there was an imbalance and the security of the system was threatened.

We requested load reduction from the entire country.

Host Q: This is quite extreme, so what happens next?

A: We then instruct the regional control centers (6 of them – explain where they are) that we need to reduce the demand in accordance with the Load Reduction protocol as defined in NRS 048.

The regional control centers then instruct the municipalities (that we have entered into a load shedding scenario) that they need to implement their contribution to the load reduction.

The municipalities then implement the load reduction in accordance with their published schedules.

Note that Eskom has no influence on how the municipalities implement the load reduction in municipal areas!!

Host Q: That is a stressful job I am sure, especially because it seems to happen so often?

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A: During the winter, the available capacity is constrained during the evening peak period.

In summer due to a number of environmental aspects tend to add additional constrains that last from morning to evening.

During summer, the problem actually becomes much worse, let me explain!

A:

Discuss winter profile first

Discuss summer profile generation is lower due to maintenance schedule

Host Q: What maintenance?

A: Think of a power plant as your car. You use it every day, but once a year, or after having done a certain amount of mileage, you have to take it to the mechanic to check that all the moving parts are still in good condition, apply lubricants between moving parts, replace broken parts, or parts at risk of breaking soon etc., Now think of a power plant as a very big car, one that cannot be taken to the mechanic. We have to get the mechanic(s) to the power plant and due to the sheer size of the parts, it takes quite a long time.

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Host Q: So what does this mean?

A: What this means is that we have many units offline during summer and as a result we have less generating capacity, so we cannot supply as much as we can during winter.

So, what this really means is that the available generation capacity is considerably reduced.

The other factors are the impact of summer weather conditions that include temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction on the performance of the generators.

The upshot is that during the summer months, we are at risk of load shedding for between 8 and 10 hours a day, where as in winter the period is between 2 and 4 hours.

Host Q: Ah, that makes sense, but even in winter we had load shedding during the day, so what happened there?

A: You have to remember that every time you experience a loss of electricity it is not necessarily as a result of a load reduction by Eskom. There are other outages that can contribute to a loss of electricity too

Host Q: Ok, what other outages could affect my electricity supply?

A: Outages could be as a result of many things, some of the most common include:

1) Due to cable theft or other forms of electricity theft that causes a loss

2) Maintenance issues (either on the part of Eskom or the municipality)

3) Due to fires under transmission lines

4) As a result of a technical fault on the transmission lines or at the sub station (distribution)

Host Q: I never think of all these possibilities, but how am I supposed to know what is going on?

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A: It is all about knowing where to find the information. As mentioned earlier, if you are a direct Eskom customer, load shedding schedules are available on our website, if you are supplied by a municipality, please contact them to find out what the problem is and if it is load shedding they will have the schedule of your turn. There are other types of communication too that Eskom provides on a regular basis, like:

1) A bi-weekly power bulletin that explains in more detail when the electricity demand is highest and the constraints with supply

2) Power Alert updates as a public broadcast announcement that serves to give updates every 15 minutes in the stresses experienced by the power system. These use real and current data

3) We have daily communication that is distributed to media

4) We have quarterly state of the power system updates with media

We have several energy efficiency and loss protection programmes like 49M, IDM (which encourages behavior change towards energy efficiency) and Operation Khanyisa (give a brief explanation)

Host Q: How and when are we warned about load shedding in advance?

A: The type of event determines how we communicate.

Based on anticipated demand and available generation, we send out daily bulletins on the state of the power system. We evaluate the state of the power system on a continuous basis and send regular notifications of the possibility of potential load reduction requirements. As a direct result of the notification, most time there is a corresponding drop in load that we no longer need to formally initiate the NRS 048 procedures.

For this we are really grateful.

Referring back to the timeline of 6 March and what happened there and the decisions that were taken to ensure that we did not reach crisis conditions that would lead to a black out. Thus by being aware and implementing the necessary good practice we kept the country safe. Under these conditions the notification period was correspondingly shorter

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Part of the reason for having this session today is to invite everyone in this room to be part of the users that we communicate directly with when the risk of load shedding is imminent.

Thus everyone here can share and appeal to their audiences and stakeholders to assist and reduce consumption to prevent the possibility of forced load reduction.

Host Q: I am sure we will all play our part, but what can I do to make a difference?

A: It is simpler than you think, let me demonstrate…

Image that you have a 6 kW petrol generator in your house.

This means that you can use the following equipment at the same time:

Kettle , TV, light and the computer.

Anything else such as the stove or the geyser will cause your generator to trip.

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.System will trip once use more electricity that what is supplied - Show tripping scenario at a peak point around 18h30 at critical point during soapie

Demonstrate what can be done to reduce impact:

1) Delay usage to later, i.e. cook later

2) Switch off pool pump

3) Switch off geyser

4) Never allow above items to operate at the same time

5) Switch off what you don’t need.

A: So, you see, it is not that difficult to make a very big but important difference. You may have previously heard the advice that we need to “Live in the moment”, well, my advice is this when it comes

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to electricity, only use the electricity that you need in that very moment. There is never a need to keep the geyser, stove, pool pump, television and all lights on at the same time. If we are all mindful of this, we won’t have a problem. And if everyone in this room can get his message across to everyone they communicate with, we will have achieved something quite unique in this world.

Host: Wow, thank you for that great advice, I think I need to rush home and go do my bit and I am sure that everyone in the audience today feels the same.

Host: I feel so much more informed, quite a lot of information I never knew and never thought about. I think this is going to bring on some changes in my home.

Ladies and gentlemen. I will now open the floor for questions. Please ask questions relevant to the presentation at this stage. Should there be general questions not relating to this presentation, please may I ask that you reserve those for later, we will open the floor at the end with Dr. Lennon,

Thank you

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