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saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
1
Sesavali ..........................................................................................................................................................................2
1. status qvo .................................................................................................................................................................2
2. savaWro brunva _ 2006-2007 ......................................................................................................................................4
3. savaWro brunva - 2008 ...............................................................................................................................................5
4. problemis arsi ..........................................................................................................................................................7
5. siRaribis done ..........................................................................................................................................................8
6. saSualovadiani riski ..............................................................................................................................................10
7. postsaomari suraTi................................................................................................................................................11
8. vaWrobis sikeTe .......................................................................................................................................................12
9. saqarTvelos adgili ...............................................................................................................................................13
10. saimedo statistikis molodinSi .........................................................................................................................19
11. samrewvelo evolucia ...........................................................................................................................................20
12. seqtoruli rentgeni .............................................................................................................................................21
13. `dieturi~ investireba ..........................................................................................................................................23
14. dakreditebis zigzagebi ........................................................................................................................................24
15. sabanko wnexi...........................................................................................................................................................26
16. kvanZis gasakveTad .................................................................................................................................................28
17. daskvnebi .................................................................................................................................................................29
18. rekomendaciebi ......................................................................................................................................................31
sarCevi
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
2
1 amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saerTaSoriso ganviTarebis saagentos, SvedeTis saerTaSoriso ganviTarebisa da TanamSromlobis saagentosa da
evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis mxardaWeriT, ekonomikuri politikis kvlevis centri siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi saqarTvelos savaWro po-
litikis monitorings axorcielebs. proeqtis farglebSi momzadebuli angariSis Sinaarsze pasuxismgebelia mxolod ekonomikuri politikis kvlevis
centri. SesaZlebelia centris Sexedulebebi ar emTxveodes evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis, amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis ganviTarebis saagen-
tosa da amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis mTavrobis Sexedulebebs.
Sesavali
ekonomikuri politikis kvlevis centrma evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis finansuri mxardaWeriT,1
proeqtis - `saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi~ ganxorciele-
ba 2008 wlis martidan daiwyo. proeqtis farglebSi centrma Seiswavla da gaanaliza saqarTvelos savaWro
saldos 2007 wlisa da 2008 wlis 10 Tvis dinamika, misi gavlena qveyanaSi mimdinare ekonomikur procesebze,
gansakuTrebiT siRaribis donis Semcirebis konteqstSi.
saqarTvelos savaWro saldos dinamika da misi gavlena ekonomikur procesebze qveynis ekonomikaSi arse-
buli mdgomareobis da mimdinare procesebis diagnositirebis erT-erTi meqanizmia.
dRes TvalsaCinoa, rom qveynis uaryofiTi savaWro saldo kvlavac Seuqcevadad izrdeba da ekonomikas
importze maRali xarisxiT damokidebuls xdis, rac imis maniSnebelia, rom ar xdeba qveynis ekonomikis
adgilobriv bazarze da eqsportze orientirebuli seqtorebis ganviTareba, rac pirdapir kavSirSia siRaribis
donesTan da dasaqmebis problematikasTan.
aqedan gamomdinare, am Temis analizi da advokatireba mogvcems SesaZleblobas, rom mTavrobasTan diskusia-
dialogis gziT moxdes mosalodneli safrTxeebis identificireba da maTi prevencia. am proeqtis ganxorcieleba da
advokatireba SesaZleblobas mogvcems, movaxdinoT fokusireba ufro konkretul da xelSesaxeb problematikaze,
romlis daZlevac ekonomikur sivrceSi realuri cvlilebebis momtani SeiZleba gaxdes.
1. status qvo
im miRwevebis paralelurad, rac saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi omamdel viTarebaSi aSkarad SeiniSneboda da
dResac misi warmatebis safuZvels warmoadgens, ekonomikur sivrceSi mimdinare procesebi zogierT iseT
problemasac gamokveTs, romlebmac, saboloo angariSiT, qveynis ekonomikis winsvlis Seferxeba SeiZleba
gamoiwvios.
aqedan erT-erTi sakvanZo Tema savaWro deficitis ganuxreli zrda gaxlavT, romelic bolo wlebis gan-
mavlobaSi sul ufro masStaburi xdeba. Sesabamisad, izrdeba qveynis importze damokidebulebis xarisxi da
mis SigniT sustdeba ara mxolod saeqsporto, aramed importis Canacvlebis perspeqtivis mqone adgilobrivi
seqtorebic.
savaWro saldos gauareseba Tavisi SinaarsiT kompleqsuri procesia da misi gamomwvevi faqtorTa mTeli
wyebaa, romelTagan TiToeuls sakuTari adgili da xvedriTi wili aqvs, Tumca mainc SeiZleba gamoiyos ram-
denime garemoeba, romelTa gavlenac midinare procesze yvelaze TvalsaCinoa.
importis gazrdas, erTis mxriv, savaWro tarifebis ganulebis tendencia uwyobs xels, rac TavisTavad
misasalmebeli tendenciaa, radgan vaWrobis gaiolebas da gaiafebas moaswavebs. Tumca, imavdroulad gasacno-
bierebelia is riski, rom amgvari politika adgilobrivi warmoebis SesaZleblobebs amcirebs da importuli
produqciiT bazris sruli gajerebis albaTobas kidev ufro mets xdis.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
3
imavdroulad, saeqsporto SesaZleblobebs ukanasknel or weliwadSi sagrZnoblad vnebda jer erovnuli
valutis kursis Seuqcevadi da mkveTri gamyarebis tendencia, rac eqsports aZvirebda da mis arsebul Tu
potenciur resurss amcirebda, imports ki, piriqiT, aiafebda da misi moculoba izrdeboda. mogvianebiT, ki
(2008 wlis noembridan) erovnuli valutis gacvliT kursTan dakavSirebiT warmoqmnili arastabiluri viTare-
ba aseve negatiurad aisaxa savaWro politikaze, vinaidan SeuZlebeli xdeba savaWro politikis da operaciebis
grZelvadiani dagegmareba da ganxorcieleba.
sxva met-naklebad mniSvnelovan faqtorebTan erTad (qarTuli saeqsporto potencialis simwire, qarTuli
kompaniebis naklebi finansuri mdgradoba da ucxour analogebTan SedarebiT gacilebiT susti poziciebi, ar-
sebul bazrebze adgilis SenarCunebis da gasaRebis axal bazrebze SeRwevis sirTuleebi da xarjianoba da a.S.),
es problemebi Sedegad iwvevs imas, rom xdeba ara eqsportis mateba da importis Canacvleba, aramed importis
gaZliereba, rac oficialuri statistikitac aris dadasturebuli da tendencia TvalsaCinoa _ qarTuli eqs-
porti, rac dro gadis, sul ufro da ufro metad eqceva importis CrdilSi.
arsebuli problema kidev ufro metad mniSvnelovania imiT, rom uSualo kavSirSia siRaribis daZlevis
problematikasTan. importis poziciebis aseTi gaZliereba sirTules uqmnis ara mxolod adgilobrivi kom-
paniebis finansur Tu instituciur mdgradobas da Semdgom ganviTarebas, aramed SeuZlebels xdis arsebuli
samuSao adgilebis SenarCunebas da, miT ufro, axali adgilebis generirebas.
es Tanabrad exeba rogorc qveynis Sida moTxovnilebebze, aseve saeqsporto mimarTulebebze orientire-
bul seqtorebs da kompaniebs. rogorc adgilobriv bazarze fokusirebuli momsaxureba da saqoneli, aseve
saeqsporto potenciali yvelaze metad iqmneba im sferoebSi, sadac mosaxleobis dasaqmeba didia.
magaliTad, soflis meurneobaSi, romelmac 2007 wels saqarTvelos mTliani Sida produqtis, daaxloebiT,
13%-is generireba moaxdina. am seqtoris saeqsporto da adgilorivi poziciebis SenarCuneba gansakuTrebiT
mtkivneuli im faqtoris gamo iqneba, rom masSi qveynis Sromisunariani mosaxleobis 55,6%-ia dasaqmebuli.
amdenad, qveynis eqsport-importis balansis konfiguraciis mkveTri cvlileba savaWro deficitis zrdis
TvalsazrisiT saqarTvelos ekonomikis grZelvadiani problemaa, romelsac negatiuri Sedegebi SeiZleba
mohyves. aqedan gamomdinare, misi safuZvliani analizi da Sesabamisi prevenciuli qmedebebis aucilebloba
aSkaraa.
proeqtis erT-erTi ZiriTadi mizania siRaribis problematikis swored am konteqstSi danaxva, vinaidan
Zalian xSirad arsebul viTarebaze dakvirveba da misi Seswavla xdeba xolme am faqtoris gauTvaliswineblad,
rac SeuZlebels xdis siRaribis gamomwvevi mizezebis kompleqsur xedvas da analizs.
arada, saqarTvelos savaWro deficitis Seuqcevadi zrda siRaribis problemas sul ufro mwvave xasiaTs
sZens da misi gavlena qveynis ekonomikaSi mimdinare procesebze (igulisxmeba rogorc Sromis bazari, aseve
axali kompaniebis Seqmnis, Semosavlebis generirebis da a.S. SesaZleblobebi) aseve mzardia.
eqsport-importis konfiguraciis cvlilebis gavlena siRaribis doneze ar aris myisieri procesi da
is yovelTvis mokle periodSi ar vlindeba. Sesabamisad, is dinamikaSi dakvirvebas da detalur analizs
saWiroebs.
am proeqtis erT-erTi ZiriTadi mizania, gamoavlinos da Seafasos is bma, romelic arsebobs eqsport-im-
portis balansis cvlilebasa da mis gavlenas Soris dasaqmeba-umuSevrobisa da siRaribis donis gazrda-Sem-
cirebis problematikasTan. am urTierTkavSiris gamovlena SesaZlebels gaxdis im suraTis ufro farTod da-
naxvas da gaTvaliswinebas, romelze dayrdnobiTac am ori sakvanZo problemis mogvarebasTan dakavSirebuli
politika unda gadamuSavdes.
amavdroulad, am analiziT mniSvnelovania ekonomikis im seqtorebis gamovlena da yuradRebis fokusSi
moqceva, romelTac mimdinare cvlilebebis konteqstSi an axali perspeqtivebi uCndebaT, an piriqiT, arsebul
poziciebs kargaven.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
4
2. savaWro brunva _ 2006-2007
ufro meti TvalsaCinoebisa da tendenciaze SedarebiT xangrZliv periodSi dakvirvebisTvis albaT sa-
survelia, sul mcire, bolo 2 wlis mocemulobebs davakvirdeT, romlebic ramdenime sayuradRebo garemoebas
gamokveTs.
saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunva 2007 wels (araorganizebuli vaWrobis gareSe) 6,457 miliardi dola-
ri iyo, rac 2006 wlis analogiur maCvenebelze 39,9%-iT metia. statistikis departamentis cnobiT, saerTo
sagareo vaWrobis moculobidan eqsporti 1,24 miliard dolars, xolo importi _ 5,22 miliards Seadgens.
uaryofiTi savaWro balansi rekorduli _ 3,98 miliardi dolaria (cxrili 1).
cxrili 1. saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvis odenoba da struqtura 2006-2007 wlebSi
2006 weli (mln dolari) 2007 weli (mln dolari) zrda (%)
savaWro brunva 4 651 6 454 39,9
eqsporti 993 1 240 24,9
importi 3 681 5 217 41,7
deficiti 2 688 3 976 47,9
saqarTvelos uaryofiTi savaWro balansi 100 partnior qveynasTan aqvs, romlebTanac savaWro deficiti
4,12 miliardia, dadebiTi savaWro balansi ki saqarTvelos 23 qveyanasTan aqvs (146 milioni dolaris jamuri
odenobiT).
2007 wels saqarTvelos milion dolarze meti dadebiTi savaWro balansi aqvs 11 qveyanasTan. esenia: kanada
(58,3 milioni), somxeTi (51,3 milioni), meqsika (12,6 milioni), gibraltari (8,3 milioni), tajikeTi (4,2 milioni),
iemeni (2,1 milioni), alJiri (1,6 milioni), erayi (1,4 milioni), belizi (1,3 milioni), filipinebi (1,3 milioni)
da avRaneTi (1,1 milioni).
savaWro deficitis 34,8% dsT-is qveynebze modis. am qveynebTan sagareo savaWro brunva 2007 wels 2,32
miliardi dolari iyo. dsT-is qveynebis wilad modis saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvis 36%, maT Soris
eqsportis 37,9% da importis 35,5%.
rac Seexeba evropas, aq saqme ase gamoiyureba: sagareo savaWro brunva evrokavSiris 27 qveyanasTan 2007
wels 1,8 miliardi dolari iyo, rac wina wlis Sesabamis maCvenebels 36%-iT aRemateba. aqedan eqsporti 269
milioni dolaria, xolo importi _ 1,54 miliardi. am qveynebis wilad saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvis
28% modis, maT Soris eqsportis 21,7%, importis 29,5% da savaWro deficitis 34,8% (cxrili 2).
cxrili 2. savaWro brunvis odenoba da struqtura dsT-sa da evrokavSiris qveynebTan 2007 wels
dsT (mln dolari, %) evrokavSiri (mln dolari, %)
savaWro brunva 2,32 1,80
eqsporti 37,9% 21,7%
importi 35,5% 29,5%
deficiti 34,8% 34,8%
tendencia naTelia: saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvaSi importi mzardi tempiT aviwroebs eqsports.
qarTuli eqsporti, rac dro gadis, sul ufro da ufro metad eqceva importis CrdilSi. Tan, qveynidan saeqs-
portod ZiriTadad kvlavac mxolod nedleuli gaedineba da, isic, sakmaod didi SeferxebebiT (igive Rvino
da citrusi an Tundac Savi liTonebis jarTi).
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
5
eqsportis aseTi mZime mdgomareobis fonze, importis aqtivoba sul ufro Zlierdeba. importis moZalebis
da adgilobrivi warmoebis Seviwroebis gamo, saeqsporto resursebi kidev ufro metad mcirdeba.
sagulisxmoa kidev erTi parametri: partniori 100 qveynidan saqarTvelos dadebiTi balansi mxolod 23-
Tan aqvs, danarCen 100-Tan _ uaryofiTi (SarSan proporcia 17-83-ze iyo). aqac uaryofiTebis ricxvi Seuqceva-
dad izrdeba, rac arsebuli eqsport-importis balansis gauaresebis kidev erTi dasturia.
eqsportis mcire masStabi pirdapir kavSirSia qveyanaSi produqciis warmoebis masStabebis dabal don-
esTan, radgan saubaria ara mxolod saeqsporto produqciis warmoebis mcire masStabTan, aramed _ importis
maRal donesTan. importis mudmivi mateba naTelyofs, rom saqarTvelos teritoriaze warmoebuli produqcia
ver uzrunvelyofs verc adgilobriv bazars, rac, Tavis mxriv, umuSevrobis safuZvelia. amitom, eqsportis
dabali maCvenebelisadmi, Sesabamisad _ importis mzardi maCveneblisadmi yuradRebis koncetrireba da eqs-
port_importis dinamikaze ekonomikuri aqcentebis gakeTeba mniSvnelovania qveynis umTavresi socialur-
ekonomikuri gamowvevis _ siRaribis dasaZlevad.
importis poziciebis aseTi gaZliereba sirTules uqmnis ara mxolod adgilobrivi kompaniebis finansur Tu
instituciur mdgradobas da Semdgom ganviTarebas, aramed SeuZlebels xdis arsebuli samuSao adgilebis Senar-
Cunebas da, miT ufro, axali adgilebis generirebas. es Tanabrad exeba rogorc qveynis Sida moTxovnilebebze,
aseve saeqsporto mimarTulebebze orientirebul seqtorebs da kompaniebs.
rogorc adgilobriv bazarze fokusirebuli momsaxureba da saqoneli, aseve saeqsporto potenciali yve-
laze metad iqmneba im sferoebSi, sadac mosaxleobis dasaqmeba didia.
magaliTad, soflis meurneobaSi, romelmac 2007 wels saqarTvelos mTliani Sida produqtis, daaxloebiT,
12,3%-is generireba moaxdina. am seqtoris saeqporto da adgilorivi poziciebis senarCuneba gansakuTrebiT
mtkivneuli im faqtoris gamo iqneba, rom masSi qveynis Sromisunariani mosaxleobis 55,6%-ia dasaqmebuli.
amdenad, qveynis eqsport-importis balansis konfiguraciis mkveTri cvlileba savaWro deficitis zrdis
TvalsazrisiT saqarTvelos ekonomikis grZelvadiani problemaa, romelsac negatiuri Sedegebi SeiZleba
mohyves. aqedan gamomdinare, misi safuZvliani analizi da Sesabamisi prevenciuli qmedebebis aucilebloba
aSkaraa.
3. savaWro brunva _ 2008
is, rom saqarTvelos ekonomika kvlavac didwilad aris damokidebuli importze da eqsporto sul ufro
metad eqceva mis wnexis qveS, wlevandeli 10 Tvis statistikiTac dasturdeba.
2008 wlis ianvar-oqtomberSi saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunva (araorganizebuli vaWrobis gareSe) 6
miliard 531 milion dolars Seadgens, rac wina wlis analogiur maCvenebelze 29%-iT metia. aqedan eqsporti
1 miliard 352 milioni dolaria (Sesabamisad 35,6%-iT meti), xolo importi _ 5 miliard 179 milion dolari
(27,4%-iT meti). anu 2008 wlis 10 TveSi saqarTvelos uaryofiTi savaWro balansi 3 miliard 827 milioni
dolaria da, savaraudod, wlis bolomde 4 miliard gadaaWarbebs.
2008 wlis ianvar-oqtomberSi saqarTvelos uaryofiTi savaWro balansi aqvs 104 partnior qveyanasTan,
romlebTanac savaWro deficiti 4 miliard 35 milion dolars Seadgens (nacvlad 100 qveynisa da 3 miliard
182 milioni dolarisa, rac dafiqsirda 2007 wlis ianvar-oqtomberSi).
2008 wlis ianvar-oqtomberSi qveyanas dadebiTi savaWro balansi aqvs 21 qveyanasTan 208 milioni dolaris
pozitiuri balansiT (nacvlad 22 qveynisa da 115 milioni dolarisa, rac dafiqsirda gasuli wlis ianvar-
oqtomberSi).
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
6
qveynebis raodenoba sagareo savaWro balansi, mln.
aSS dolari
uaryofiTi savaWro balansi
2007 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 100 3 182.2
2008 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 104 4 035.3
dadebiTi savaWro balansi
2007 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 22 114.5
2008 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 21 208.1
sul
2007 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 122 -3 067.7
2008 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 125 -3 827.2
2007 w. ianvari-oqtomberi 2008 w. ianvari-oqtomberi
aTasi aSS
dolari
procenti
jamis mimarT
aTasi aSS
dolari
procenti
jamis mimarT
eqsporti _ sul 997 024.5 100.0 1 351 972.0 100.0
feroSenadnobebi 117 630.9 11.8 260 894.3 19.3
Savi liTonebis jarTi 83 623.8 8.4 118 664.3 8.8
spilenZis madnebi da koncentratebi 79 212.5 7.9 111 918.0 8.3
azotovani sasuqebi 51 094.4 5.1 102 952.8 7.6
msubuqi avtomobilebi 54 932.6 5.5 99 084.6 7.3
oqro daumuSavebeli an naxevraddamuSavebuli 53 190.2 5.3 73 985.0 5.5
cementi 52 565.2 5.3 73 985.0 5.5
spirti eTilis aradenaturirebuli 80 moc. %-ze naklebi
spirtis koncentraciiT da spirtiani sasmelebi42 477.8 4.3 43 976.9 3.3
yurZnis naturaluri Rvinoebi 22 745.0 2.3 30 568.5 2.3
spilenZis jarTi 32 332.0 3.2 29 224.1 2.2
cxrili 3.
saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro balansi
cxrili 4.
umsxvilesi sasaqonlo poziciebi saqarTvelos eqsportSi
sasaqonlo jgufebidan saeqsporto aTeulSi pirvel adgilze feroSenadnobebia _ mis wilad 2008 wlis
ianvar-oqtomberSi eqsportis 19,3% modis da 261 milion dolars Seadgens. Savi liTonebis jarTis eqsporti
Seadgens 119 milion dolars, rac eqsportis 8,8%-ia. mesame adgilze myofi spilenZis madnebisa da koncentra-
tebis sasaqonlo jgufis eqsportis wili 8,3%-ia da 112 milion dolars Seadgens.
umsxvilesi saimporto sasaqonlo jgufi, 2008 wlis ianvar-seqtemberSi, navTobi da navTobproduqtebia,
romlis wili 13,1% da 679 milioni dolaria. meore adgilze myofi msubuqi avtomobilebis sasaqonlo jgufis
importi 435 milioni dolari anu importis 8,4%-ia.
mesame adgils navTobis airebis da airisebri naxSirwyalbadebis da samkurnalo saSualebebis sasaqonlo jgufebi
iyofen 3-3%-iani wiliT da, Sesabamisad, 157 milioni dolaris da 153 milioni dolaris Tanxobrivi moculobiT.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
7
2007 w. ianvari-oqtomberi 2008 w. ianvari-oqtomberi
aTasi aSS
dolari
procenti
jamis mimarT
aTasi aSS
dolari
procenti
jamis mimarT
eqsporti _ sul 4 064 762.4 100.0 5 179 221.7 100.0
navTobi da navTobproduqtebi 435 535.5 10.7 678 906.7 13.1
msubuqi avtomobilebi 300 182.2 7.4 435 174.0 8.4
navTobis airebi da airisebri naxSirwyalbadebi 241 990.6 6.0 157 373.1 3.0
samkurnalo saSualebebi 119 093.4 2.9 153 075.8 3.0
aparatura gadamcemi radiosatelefono, radiosatelegrafo
kavSiris, radiomauwyeblobisa da televiziisaTvis83 672.8 2.1 134 799.9 2.6
rkinisa da foladis wnelebi 60 587.1 1.5 101 567.6 2.0
xorbali 99 966.7 2.5 90 378.7 1.7
gamomTvleli manqanebi da maTi blokebi 61 337.0 1.5 80 615.0 1.6
manganumis madnebi da koncentratebi 15 864.8 0.4 69 876.2 1.3
xorblis fqvili 21 475.8 0.5 67 715.9 1.3
cxrili 5.
umsxvilesi sasaqonlo poziciebi saqarTvelos importSi
am siis zedapiruli analizic cxadyofs, rom qveynis eqsport-importis struqturaSi arc is tendencia
Secvlila, romlis mixedviTac qveynidan ZiriTadad nedleuli gaedineba, romlis warmoebaSic minimaluri
samuSao Zalaa CarTuli. importirebuli saqonlis nusxaSi ki upiratesad saboloo produqtebia, romelsac
saqarTveloSi gadamuSaveba aRar sWirdeba da mxolod sacalo qselSi serviss moiTxovs.
rogorc erT, iseve meore SemTxvevaSi dasaqmebis efeqti Zalian dabalia. Sesabamisad, importis zrda da
eqsportis naklebadmwarmoebluri segmentebis ganviTareba qveyanaSi dasaqmebis klebis da umuSevrobis zrdis
ZiriTad xelSemwyobad rCeba.
zogadadac, saqarTvelos ekonomikis momavali ganviTarebis Semafarxebeli ramdenime faqtoridan erT-
erTi umniSvnelovanesi swored qveynis mzardi savaWro deficitia. deficiti, romelsac, adre Tu gvian, au-
cileblad unda gamoewvia is, rac 2008 wlis noemberSi ori dRis intervaliT moxda _ erovnuli valutis
17%-iani devalvacia.
4. problemis arsi
saWiroa imis zustad gageba, Tu ra TvalsazrisiT warmoadgens savaWro deficiti aseT mniSvnelovan proble-
mas. Tumca, isic aucileblad gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom arsebuli viTareba qveynis, rogorc Semosavalze orien-
tirebuli ekonomikis struqturul arCevans ukavSirdeba.
TavisTavad, aseT deficits monetaruli da realuri ganzomilebebi gaaCnia. sakiTxis monetaruli mxare am
deficitis gacvliT kursze zemoqmedebaSi mdgomareobs. Teoriulad, gacvliTi kursis TviTkoreqtireba abalan-
sebs vaWrobas: importis siWarbe zrdis moTxovnas ucxour valutaze da aufasurebs erovnul valutas, rac zrdis
produqtebis konkurentunarianobas gacvliTi kursis TvalsazrisiT da aumjobesebs savaWro balanss.
stabiluri deficiti SeiZleba gaCndes sxvadasxva viTarebaSi: aSS-Si, sadac erovnuli valuta msoflio
valutacaa, rac aneitralebs gacvliTi kursis maregulirebel efeqts; im qveynebSi, sadac gacvliTi kursis
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
8
cvalebadoba SezRudulia mTavrobis mier gatarebuli mkacri sakurso politikiT, `savaluto faris~ reJimis
gamoyenebiT, an monetaruli integraciiT, rogorc evrokavSirSia.
iseT qveynebSi, rogoric saqarTveloa, sadac kapitalis Semosuli nakadebi akompensirebs savaWro defici-
tis gavlenas gacvliT kursze da inarCunebs erovnuli valutis maRal kurss.
am problemis realuri ganzomileba isaa, rom mzardi savaWro deficiti asaxavs erovnuli ekonomikis arakon-
kurentunarianobas da qveynis Zalze viwro ekonomikur bazas, romelic SeiZleba erT sul mosaxleze SromiTi da-
naxarjebiT gaizomos. es danaxarjebi SeiZleba Zalian dabali iyos iseTi mizezebis gamo, rogoricaa: ganuviTare-
beli ekonomika, araformaluri seqtori, potenciuri aqtivobis dabali done (rac ganpirobebulia demografiuli
faqtoriT), dasaqmebis dabali done, samuSao asakis mqone mosaxleobis dabali wliuri Sromis danaxarjebi.
saerTod, savaWro deficitis monetaruli da realuri ganzomilebebi ekonomikuri politikis prioritetebis
gaTvaliswinebiT unda gaanalizdes. sainteresoa, rom es viTareba safrangeTis ekonomikis dRevandel mdgomareo-
bas waagavs, romlis savaWro deficitic, ukve meoTxe welia, 39 miliardi evroa (mSp-is TiTqmis 2%). mas ganapiro-
bebs importirebuli energomatareblebis fasebi, evros maRali gacvliTi kursi, dabali xelfasebi germaniaSi da
arasakmarisi SromiTi danaxarjebi. aRniSnuli deficitis interpretaciac ekonomistebs Soris kamaTis sagania.
ra aris saqarTvelos ekonomikis prioritetebi?
Tu prioritetebi pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis meSveobiT modernizaciis ganxorcieleba da siRaribis
daZlevaa, maSin deficitis monetaruli efeqti ganeitraldeba da saqarTvelos kvlav maRali da stabiluri
gacvliTi kursi eqneba. amgvari kursi kargia pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis mosazidad, aseve mosaxleobis
myidvelobiTi unarisTvis im pirobiT, Tu mas Semosavali eqneba. magram, realurad, maRali gacvliTi kursi
ar aris kargi adgilobrivi warmoebis konkurentunarianobisTvis da Sesabamisad, dasaqmebis da adgilobrivi
Semosavlebis generirebisTvis. qveyana viwro ekonomikuri bazis CarCoSi Caiketeba.
isic unda davamatoT, rom erovnul valutaze pozitiur da negatiur zewolebs Soris arsebuli amJaminde-
li balansi saSualovadian periodSi sakmaod myife situacias qmnis. Tu gaviTvaliswinebT rom deficiti Zalian
didia (mSp-is 24%-ze meti, rac 12-jer metia, vidre safrangeTSi), aRniSnuli balansis nebismieri cvlileba
seriozul ekonomikur destabilizacias gamoiwvevs. ukve dRes pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Sedegad nomi-
naluri kursis gamyarebis Tavidan asacileblad didi odenobis laris ineqciebi inflaciis safrTxes qmnis.
garda amisa, importze zedmetad orientirebuli ekonomikis yvelaze didi nakli adgilobrivi aqtivobis
dasustebaa, ris Sedegsac xSirad yvelaze did problemas warmoadgens siRaribe, romelic bolo dros poli-
tikuri cxovrebis fokusSi moeqca. miuxedavad amisa, jer kidev ar xdeba aRniSnuli fenomenis Rrma analizi
da monitoringi. siRaribis raodenobrivi Sefaseba ver xerxdeba monacemTa araTanmimdevrulobis gamo.
5. siRaribis done
arsebuli monacemebis mixedviT, siRaribis done mcirdeba, magram igi ufro maRalia qalaqebSi, rac sakma-
od sakamaToa, Tu mxedvelobaSi miviRebT qalaqebSi fuladi gzavnilebis sidides. ufro marTebulia albaT is,
rom siRaribe dakavSirebulia dasaqmebis dabal donesTan rogorc qalaqad, ise soflad. soflebSi dasaqmebis
ZiriTadi forma, saerTaSoriso organizaciebis terminologias Tu gamoviyenebT, aris `TviTdasaqmeba~. rea-
lurad es aris wvrili, upiratesad TviTgamokvebaze orientirebuli fermeruli meurneoba.
TviTdasaqmebulebi ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis 50%-s Seadgens. daqiravebul adamianTa ricxvi
jerjerobiT ar gazrdila da ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis mxolod 30%-s an mTlianad dasaqmebulTa
35%-s Seadgens. jerjerobiT ar Catarebula Sromis bazrebis, fuladi gzavnilebis da siRaribis regionuli
analizi, rac qalaqad da soflad siRaribis xafangebs gamoavlenda.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
9
garda socialuri da politikuri Sedegebisa, aseTi mdgomareobis mTavari Sedegi saSualovadian periodSi
iqneba masStaburi dausaqmebloba, rac qveynis ekonomikuri bazis Semdgom Semcirebas moaswavebs. swored amis
gamo, sareitingo saagento Fitch Ratings frTxili iyo Tavis SefasebaSi, rodesac xazs usvamda saqarTvelos Semo-
savlebis saSualo dones da viwro ekonomikur bazas.
sagulisxmoa, rom jer kidev aprilSi, rodesac Fitch Ratings-ma saqarTvelos grZelvadiani BB- reitingi
SeunarCuna stabiluri perspeqtiviT, saagentom im riskebis identificirebac moaxdina, romlebic saqarTve-
los ekonomikisTvis rogorc mokle, aseve grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi problemebis wyarod SeiZleba iqces.
sakredito kompaniis eqspertebi xazgasmiT aRniSnaven, rom politikuri da ekonomikuri sisusteebis, maT
Soris sagareo savaWro deficitis gamo, qveynis swrafi ekonomikuri ganviTarebisTvis safrTxeebi arsebobs.
is faqti, rom mudmivad mzardi uaryofiTi savaWro saldo qveynis ekonomikis erT-erTi yvelaze mtkivneuli
problemaa, msoflios erT-erTma yvelaze avtoritetulma sareitingo saagentom kidev erTxel daadastura.
sxva garemoebebTan erTad, esec aris imis gamomwvevi faqtori, rom saagento Fitch Ratings wels saqarTve-
loSi mTliani Sida produqtis zrdis prognozi Seamcira. mogvianebiT ki reitingi klebisken mainc gadaisinja,
risi mizezic ruseTTan saomari modgomareoba da ekonomikuri maCveneblebis mkveTri gaureseba gaxda.
ekonomikur sisusteebs Soris uaryofiT savaWro saldos permanentulad mzardi sirTule rom aris da pirdapir
kavSirSia siRaribis donesTan da dasaqmebis problematikasTan, esec calsaxad aRiniSna. socialuri daZabulobis
muxti kvlavac maRalia, rac, sabolood, isev Sida politikuri mdgomareobis gamwvavebis mizezi SeiZleba gaxdes.
dasaqmebis dabali done saqarTveloSi arsebul ekonomikur problemaTa jaWvis is rgolia, romelic yo-
velTvis Zalian sustad gamoiyureba da socilur-ekonomikuri mdgradobis yvelaze myife elements warmoad-
gens.
vinaidan warmoebis dinamika CamorCeba moxmarebas, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom sawarmoo baza qveyanaSi Zalian
viwroa. es zedmeti moxmarebis realobis dasaqmebis aspeqtia. rasakvirvelia, mxedvelobaSia misaRebi Sromis
sxvadasxva intensivoba warmoebis sxvadasxva dargSi da isic, rom zogierTi arasaeqsporto dargi, magaliTad,
mSenebloba, bevr samuSao adgils qmnis. magram ase ar aris sxva, iseT mzard seqtorebSi, rogoricaa, vTqvaT,
finansuri seqtori an komunikaciebi. es struqturuli umuSevroba mxolod nawilobriv aisaxeba umuSevrobis
maCveneblebSi.
gasaTvaliswinebelia aseve araregistrirebuli dasaqmeba rogorc soflad, ise did qalaqebSi da emigri-
rebuli samuSao asakis mqone mosaxleoba, rac aseve mniSvnelovnad cvlis arsebul suraTs.
emigracia calke problemuri blokia _ kompleqsuri fenomeni, romelic aixsneba rogorc ekonomikuri (si-
Raribis biZgi da sxva qveynebSi cxovrebis maRali standartebis mimzidveloba), ise sociologiuri (adre
emigrirebuli diaspora) da kulturuli faqtorebiT (zogierTi qveynis simbolurad Tu ekonomikurad mi-
mzidveli Zala).
iseTi patara qveynebisTvis, rogoric saqarTveloa, emigraciis maRali done tradiciuli reaqciaa umuSe-
vrobaze. saqarTveloSi wminda migraciuli danakargi erT milion adamianze metia (mosaxleobis 20%), romlis
2/3 ZiriTadad ruseTSia (danarCeni aSS-Si, saberZneTSi, TurqeTSi, espaneTsa da ukrainaSi).
emigracia da zedmeti moxmareba Semosavalze orientirebul ekonomikas TviTmaval ekonomikad aqcevs.
rasakvirvelia, arsebobs sawarmoo investiciebis sapirispiro tendenciac, magram es tendencia jerjerobiT
sustia, rac imaze miuTiTebs, rom Semosavalze orientacia stabiluria da mdgradia da kidev ufro didia am
viTarebaSi Caketvis riski.
ase rom, saqarTvelo, yvela niSniT, aris Semosavalze orientirebuli ekonomika. imave 2006 wels aseTi Semo-
savlebi iyo: fuladi gzavnilebi (800 milioni dolari), pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi (1,1 miliardi dola-
ri), saerTaSoriso garantiebi (187 milioni dolari), kapitaluri Semosavlebi privatizaciisagan (312 milioni
dolari) da daaxloebiT 100 milioni dolari milsadenis sakomisioebis saxiT. gare wyaroebidan miRebuli
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
10
mTeli Semosavali 2006 wels 2,5 miliard dolars anu mSp-s daaxloebiT 32,5%-s Seadgenda. igive tendencias
adasturebs 2007 weli da 2008 wlis presaomari periodi.
Semosavlebze orientirebul situacias saqarTveloSi TavisTavad sami Zala amoZravebs: Semcirebuli ekonomi-
kuri bazis TviTmavali meqanizmi, emigracia da zedmeti moxmareba; dasavleli donorebis sagareo daxmareba, rom-
lebsac qveyanaSi grZelvadiani strategiuli interesebi gaaCniaT da pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis nakadebi.
6. saSualovadiani riski
ra Sedegebia mosalodneli saSualovadian periodSi?
SeiZleba CavTvaloT, rom didi savaWro deficiti TavisTavad problema ar aris, vinaidan amave dros Semo-
dis resursebi am deficitis dasafinanseblad da misgan gamowveuli disbalansis Sesamsubuqeblad da, piriqiT,
Semosuli kapitalis potenciurad negatiur zegavlenas realur gacvliT kursze swored savaWro deficiti
aneitralebs, magram isic faqtia, rom udidesma savaWro deficitma ukve gamoiwvia erovnuli valutis deval-
vacia da sxva riskebis gazrda.
saqarTvelos ekonomika, rogorc velosipedi, win migoravs am or disbalanss Soris. problema is aris, rom
es Tanafardoba ar aris stabiluri da sagareo Semosavlebis Semcireba (rac SeiZleba moxdes, magaliTad, Tu
saSualovadian periodSi emigrantTa nawilebi ukan dabrundeba) an savaWro deficitis kleba (rac mosalodne-
lia eqsportis zrdis Sedegad) makroekonomikur ryevebs gamoiwvevs.
garda amisa, kvazi-fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursis viTarebaSi, kapitalis msxvili nakadebis Semosvla moi-
Txovs laris Sesabamis emisias da zrdis fulis agregatebs: M2 2005 wels 26%-iT, xolo 2006 wels 30%-iT gai-
zarda, fulze moTxovna ki Sesabamisad ar gazrdila. es inflaciuri zewola ukve gamoCnda: saSualo fasebis
indeqsi 2005 wels 6,2%-dan 2006 wels 8,7%-mde, xolo 2007 wels _ 10,7%-mde gaizarda.
problema ukve sagrZnobia mosaxleobisTvis imitom, rom fasebi ZiriTadad saboloo moxmarebis saqonelze
matulobs. importis maRalma wilma, romelsac movaWreTa mcire jgufi akontrolebs, SeiZleba dawios konku-
renciis done am bazrebze da gamoiwvios aramonetaruli inflacia. inflacia Seamcirebs eqsportis poten-
cials da gazrdis zedmet moxmarebas.
sadReisod, Semcirebulia standartuli konkurentuli upiratesobebi. rodesac mzardi savaWro defi-
citia, pirvelive diagnozi aseTia: laris gacvliTi kursi ar aris optimaluri da Sors aris wonasworuli
mniSvnelobisgan. amis recepti laris kidev ufro gaufasureba iqneboda, romelic zedmetad gamyarebulad
iTvleba. Tumca, aseTi midgoma, ramdenime mizezis gamo, ar aris rekomendebuli saerTaSoriso savaluto fon-
dis da msoflio bankis mier.
es mizezebia: eqsportis struqtura, adgilobrivi soflis meurneobis da biznesis uunaroba, isargeblos
gacvliTi kursis koreqtirebiT, bankebis aqtivebis struqtura da, aseve, socialuri sakiTxebi. CamoTvlili
mizezebis gamo saqarTvelo iZulebulia, dResac laris ufro maRali kursiT icxovros, vidre es ekonomiku-
rad gamarTlebuli iqneboda.
saSualovadian periodSi es sakmaod seriozuli gamowvevaa. jerjerobiT pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi ar
Secvlis situacias, vinaidan isini ar aris realurad orientirebuli mwarmoeblurobis zrdaze da gareSe zewo-
las ar Seamsubuqebs.
qveynis mdgradi ganviTareba ar unda emyarebodes iaf muSaxels da fasebis konkurentulobas. magaliTad, tu-
ristuli momsaxureba, TurqeTTan SedarebiT, ar aris konkurentuli. qarTuli sasoflo sameurneo produqciis
zogierTi saxeoba, Zalian dabali tarifebis pirobebSi, ver uwevs konkurencias adgilobriv bazarze Turqul da
sxva qveynis analogebs. igive problema aqvs msubuqi mrewvelobis nawarms Cinur importTan mimarTebaSi, da a.S.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
11
am gamowvevis dasaZlevad saqarTvelom unda Seqmnas axali konkurentuli upiratesobebi xarisxiani da maRa-
li damatebuli Rirebulebis produqtebis bazaze.
amasTan, saqarTvelom unda moipovos konkurentunarianoba Tavisi agroproduqciiT da turistuli resur-
sebiT. rac Seexeba transportirebas, tranzits da logistikur momsaxurebas, saqarTvelo ukve iRebs sargebels
Tavisi specifikuri adgilmdebareobiT.
mimdinare angariSis deficiti da Semosavalze orientirebuli ekonomika ucxour finansur wyaroebze
Zlier damokidebulebas qmnis.
donorebisgan Semosavlebis miReba momavalSi metnaklebad garantirebulia strategiuli investiciebiT
saqarTveloze gamaval satranzito marSrutebSi. aseTi viTareba, romelic did dasavlur interesebs Seesaba-
meba, aSS-is an evrokavSiris mier qveynis instrumentalizaciis riskis matarebelia. garda amisa, Semosavlebi,
romlebic fuladi gzavnilebis saxiT Semodis, mudmivi politikuri riskis qveSaa, rac gasaTvaliswinebelia
ruseTTan urTierTobaSi.
qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis umTavresi SemzRudveli faqtori misi viwro ekonomikuri bazaa, rac
ucxoeTSi xangrZlivad mcxovreb diasporebTanaa dakavSirebuli da Semosavalze orientirebuli ekonomikis
damaxasiaTebel niSans warmoadgens. situacias amZimebs dasaqmebis problema, gansakuTrebiT soflad. amitom
saWiroa, agrarul regionebSi sabazro ekonomikis daCqarebuli ganviTarebis realuri xelSewyoba da soflis
mosaxleobis potenciuri emigraciis marTva, rasac soflad ekonomikis mwarmoeblurobis mosalodneli zrda
gamoiwvevs.
amrigad, viwro ekonomikuri baza saSualovadian perspeqtivaSi mdgradi ganviTarebis gadaulaxav barierad
rom ar iqces, aucilebelia arasruli dasaqmebis aRmofxvra da warmoebis zrdis uzrunvelyofa saeqsporto po-
tencialis gaumjobesebis gziT, rac pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis gamoyenebiT da evropuli normebisa da
standartebis damkvidrebiT unda moxdes.
7. postsaomari suraTi
calke saubris Temaa is problemebi, rasac dasaqmebas postsaomari viTareba Seuqmnis. msoflio bankis da gae-
ros SefasebiT, msoflio krizisis da agvistos movlenebis Semdeg, saqarTvelos ekonomikas recesia emuqreba.
donorebis prognoziT, konfliqtamde da konfliqtis Semdeg viTareba ase Seicvala: Tu manamde wliuri
zrda 9%-is farglebSi ivaraudeboda, axla misi moculoba 3,5%-mde daecema. inflacia 10%-dan 8%-mde iklebs,
mimdinare angariSis deficiti ki 16,6%-dan 20,8%-mde moimatebs.
mimdinare wels, pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi dagegmilze (2,1 miliardi dolari) TiTqmis miliardi
dolariT naklebi Semova da mxolod 1,2 miliards Seadgens. rac Seexeba biujets, romelic winaswari gegmiT
proficituli unda yofiliyo, amJamad is donorebis daxmarebis saxiT 480 milionamde dolars saWiroebs.
amave kvlevis mixedviT, saukeTeso SemTxvevaSi gadavaddeba investiciebi mSeneblobaSi, uZrav qonebaSi,
sacalo vaWrobasa da turizmSi. donorebis daskvniT, stabilurobis aRdgenamde eWvqveS dadgeba qveynis sa-
tranzito funqciac. deficitia mosalodneli sabiujeto SemosavlebSic, rac donorebis daxmarebiT unda
Seivsos.
donorebis prognoziT, uaxloes xanebSi umuSevarTa odenoba, savaraudod, 100-i aTasiT gaizrdeba da 350 aTass
miaRwevs, rac samuSao Zalis saerTo ricxovnobis mexuTedia.
Sesabamisad, umuSevrobis zewola ekonomikur viTarebaze kidev ufro zrdadi iqneba. aqedan gamomdinare, ad-
gilobriv damsaqmeblebs da dasaqmebulebs, romlebsac prekrizisul periodamdec sakmaod aqtiurad aviwroe-
bdnen importuli analogebi, amJamad kidev ufro rTul viTarebaSi aRmoCndebian da ara mxolod Semosavlebis
Semcireba, aramed samuSao adgilebis dakargvac eliT.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
12
8. vaWrobis sikeTe
rogorc qarTveli, ise ucxoeli mecnierebi da specialistebi erTmniSvnelovnad Tanxmdebian sagareo
vaWrobis uaRresad mniSvnelovan rolze ekonomikuri ganviTarebis maRali tempebis miRwevaSi. marTlac, Zne-
lia gadaWarbebiT Seafaso sagareo vaWrobis roli ganviTarebadi qveynebis, gansakuTrebiT ki mcire zomis
ganviTarebadi ekonomikebisTvis.
rogoria aseTi qveynebis msoflio vaWrobaSi da sazogadod, msoflio ekonomikaSi monawileobis xarisxi?
ra struqturuli da instituciuri faqtorebi axdenen gadamwyvet gavlenas vaWrobasa da ganviTarebaze? ra
tendenciebi yalibdeba am TvalsazrisiT Tanamedrove msoflioSi? rogor ganisazRvros saerTaSoriso vaWro-
bis ganviTarebis gziT ekonomikuri zrdis maRali tempebis miRwevis prioritetebi?
am sakiTxebis analizisa da monitoringis mizniT gaeros vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis asociaciis (UNCTAD)
samdivnom SeimuSava vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsi (vg-indeqsi), romelic qveynebis urTierTSedarebis
saukeTeso saSualebas warmoadgens.
msoflio ekonomikaSi saqarTvelos adgilze swored UNCTAD-is vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsis mixed-
viT dakvirveba sakmaod saintereso Sedegebs avlens.
vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsi sam ZiriTad mizans emsaxureba:
vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareobis monitorings;
am mdgomareobaze moqmedi faqtorebis analizs;
erovnuli da saerTaSoriso doneze politikis iseTi instrumentebis SemuSavebas, romlebic uzrun-
velyofs sagareo vaWrobis fokusirebas ganviTarebaze da siRaribis Semcirebaze.
sxva sityvebiT, es indeqsi mowodebulia daexmaros saxelmwifoebs, gansakuTrebiT dabalganviTarebul da
Rarib qveynebs, gansazRvron, Tu ra gziT moaxdinon efeqtiani integrireba msoflio ekonomikaSi da miiRon sarge-
beli saerTaSoriso vaWrobidan ekonomikuri zrdis, siRaribis Semcirebisa da keTildReobis amaRlebis mizniT.
pirvel sqemaSi konkretuladaa mocemuli vg-indeqsis gaangariSebis meTodologiuri principebi.
vaWrobis da ganviTarebis indeqsi miiReba 34 specifikuri maCveneblebis sami donis agregaciis Sedegad.
pirvel doneze xdeba aRniSnuli 34 maCveneblidan 13 agregirebuli maCveneblis gaangariSeba, romelTagan 9
axasiaTebs vaWrobisa da ganviTarebaze moqmed faqtorebs (faqtoruli Sefaseba) struqturuli da institu-
ciur WrilSi, 2 _ savaWro politikisa da ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT. me-12 da me-13 maCveneblebiT ki Sefase-
bulia vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareoba, rogorc Sedegi (Sedegobrivi Sefaseba).
sqema 1.
vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsis koncefciuri CarCo
struqturuli da
instituciuri Wrili
adamianuri kapitali
fizikuri infrastruqtura
safinanso Suamavloba
Sida finansebi
saerTaSoriso finansebi
instituciuri xarisxi
ekonomikuri struqtura
mikroekonomikuri stabiluroba
garemos sijansaRe
savaWro gaxsniloba
bazrebze wvdoma
faqtoruli
Sefaseba
(saSualo
Sewonili)
Sedegobrivi
Sefaseba
(saSualo
Sewonili)
martivi
saSualo
vaWrobisa da
ganviTarebis
indeqsi
vaWrobis mdgomareoba
ekonomikuri da
socialuri keTildReoba
savaWro politika
da ganviTareba
vaWrobisa da ganviTare-
bis mdgomareoba
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
13
sabolood vg-indeqsi miiReba, rogorc faqtoruli da Sedegobrivi Sefasebebis martivi saSualo ariTme-
tikuli (agregaciis mesame done).
es maCveneblebi, erTi mxriv, aRweren im faqtorebs, romelTa gavleniTac miiRweva vaWrobisa da ganviTa-
rebis arsebuli done qveyanaSi, xolo meore mxriv, axasiaTeben vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareobas.
ekonomikur maCvenebelTa aseTi farTo wris gamoyeneba TvalsaCinos xdis im faqts, rom mxolod sagareo va-
Wrobis liberalizacia ar iZleva vaWrobis gafarToebisa da ganviTarebis sasurveli donis miRwevis SesaZleblo-
bas. UNCTAD_is mier 2007 wels gamoqveynebul angariSSi naTlad Cans saqarTvelos Zlieri da susti mxareebi
vaWrobasa da ganviTarebis sferoSi sxva qveynebTan mimarTebaSi.
sagulisxmoa, rom aRniSnuli indeqsis gamoyenebis iniciativa arc ise didi xnis win warmoiSva. pirveli
aseTi gaangariSebebi, 2005 wlis monacemenze dayrdnobiT, 2006 wels gamoqveynda. maSin masSi msoflios 110
qveyana monawileobda. 2007 wlis noemberSi gamoqveynda 2006 wlis maCveneblebis safuZvelze gaangariSebuli
axali monacemebi, romelTa gaangariSebis samuSaoebs xelmZRvanelobda mrCevelTa sabWo, nobelis premiis
laureatis, profesor laurens kleinis TavmjdomareobiT.
9. saqarTvelos adgili
rac ufro maRalia vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsi, miT ukeTesia ama Tu im qveyanaSi am sferoSi arsebu-
li viTareba. aqedan gamomdinare, aRniSnuli indeqsis zrda mocemul periodSi sagareo vaWrobis gafarToebasa
da ekonomikis zrdaze miuTiTebs.
saqarTvelos vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareobis analizisa da misi danarCen qveynebTan Sedarebis-
Tvis qveynebis oTxi jgufia SerCeuli (Tumca cnobilia, qveynebis sxva regionuli klasifikaciebic): ganvi-
Tarebadi qveynebi, samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebi, evrokavSirSi 2004 wels Sesuli qveynebi
(evrokavSiri 10) da ganviTarebuli qveynebi.
aRniSnuli oTxi jgufi garkveuli mosazrebiT SeirCa. kerZod, ganviTarebadi qveynebis jgufSi SerCeva Cveni
qveynis mimdinare statusma ganapiroba; samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebi imis gamo SeirCa, rom
saqarTvelo swored am jgufSi Sedis da msgavsi sastarto pirobebi aqvs; evrokavSiris axali wevrebis jguf-
Tan Sedareba aucilebelia, radganac am qveynis mier vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis sferoSi miRweuli Sedegebi
sul cota, „programa-minimums` mainc unda warmoadgendes saqarTvelosTvis, rogorc evropul Rirebulebebze
orientirebuli qveynisTvis; da bolos, ganviTarebuli qveynebis jgufTan saqarTvelos monacemebis Sedareba im
mosazrebiT moxda, rom ukeT gamoCeniliyo, Tu ramdenad Sors varT ganviTarebis saukeTeso maCveneblebisgan.
rogorc zemoT motanili sqemidan Cans, UNCTAD-is mier vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis donis ganmsazRvreli
struqturuli da instituciuri faqtorebi daxasiaTebulia iseTi maCveneblebiT, rogorebicaa: adamianuri
kapitali, fizikuri infrastruqtura, safinanso Suamavloba, Sida dafinanseba, saerTaSoriso dafinanseba,
instituciuri xarisxi, ekonomikuri struqtura, makroekonomikuri stabiluroba da garemos sijansaRe.
adamianuri kapitalis Sefaseba jandacvaze gaweuli mTliani (saxelmwifo da kerZo) xarjebisa da ganaTlebaze
gaweuli saxelmwifo xarjebis mTliani Sida produqtTan SefardebiT xdeba. es indikatori gviCvenebs, Tu ramdenad
janmrTeli da kvalificiuri muSaxeliTaa uzrunvelyofili erovnuli ekonomikebis aRmSeneblobiTi procesebi.
saqarTvelosTvis igi 11-s Seadgenda, rac 42 punqtiT naklebia yvelaze maRal maCvenebelze, romelic vg-
indeqsiT me-3 adgilze gasulma daniam, me-8 adgilze gasulma norvegiam da me-12 adgilze gasulma islandiam
aCvenes. am maCvenebliT saqarTvelo 123 qveyanas Soris 117-120-e adgilebs inawilebs ekvadorTan (70-e adgili
vg-indeqsiT), ganasTan (96-e adgili) da bangladeSTan (102-e adgili) da mxolod 2 punqtiT uswrebs gvineasa
(116-e adgili) da nigerias (121-e adgili), aseve 3 punqtiT _ pakistans (103-e adgili).
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
14
adamianuri kapitalis indeqsiT saqarTvelo postsabWoTa qveynebidan yvelas CamorCeba. qveynebis am jguf-
Si aRniSnuli maCvenebeli 13-dan (azerbaijani) 35-dan (belarusi) meryeobs. qvemoT motanili grafikebidan na-
Tlad Cans, rom adamianuri kapitalis maCveneblbliT Cven mniSvnelovnad CamovrCebiT ganviTarebadi qveynebis
(21) da samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebis saSualo maCveneblebs (26), evrokavSiris _ 10-is (36)
da ganviTarebuli qveynebis analogiur maCveneblebTan mimarTebaze rom araferi vTqvaT (42).
statistikuri monacemebis simwire saSualebas ar gvaZlevs, rom srulyofilad SevafasoT ganaTlebisa
da jandacvaze saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebis danaxarjebis moculoba. Tumca, empiriuli monacemebiT, aseTi
200
300
400
500
100
grafiki 1.
vg-indeqsis komponentebis Sedareba saqarTvelosa da sxvadasxva qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT
0
0 0
0
50
50
50
100
100
100
150
150
150
200
200
200
250
250
250
300
300
300
350
350
400
350
ak
ak ak
ak
saqarTvelo da ganviTarebadi qveynebi:
vg-indeqsis komponentebis Sedareba
saqarTvelo da evrokavSiri _ 10:
vg-indeqsis komponentebis Sedareba
saqarTvelo da ganviTarebuli qveynebi:
vg-indeqsis komponentebis Sedareba
saqarTvelo da samxreT-aRmosavleTi evropa da dsT:
vg-indeqsis komponentebis Sedareba
fi
fi fi
fifS
fS fS
fSSf
Sf Sf
Sfsf
sf sf
sfix
ix ix
ixes
es es
esms
ms ms
msgs
gs gs
gssg
sg sg
sgbw
bw bw
bwvm
vm vm
vmesk
esk esk
esk
saqarTvelo
saqarTvelo
pirobiTi aRniSvnebi:
faqtoruli Sefaseba:
ak _ adamianuri kapitali
fi _ fizikuri infrastruqtura
fS _ safinanso Suamavloba
Sf _ Sida dafinanseba
sf _ saerTaSoriso dafinanseba
Sedegobrivi Sefaseba:
vm _ vaWrobis mdgomareoba
esk _ ekonomikuri da socialuri keTildReoba
ix _ instituciuri xarisxi
es _ ekonomikuri struqtura
ms _ makroekonomikuri stabiluroba
gs _ garemos sijansaRe
sg _ savaWro gaxsniloba
bw _ sagareo bazrebze wvdoma
saqarTvelo
saqarTveloganviTarebadi qveynebi
evrokavSiri _ 10 ganviTarebuli qveynebi
samxreT-aRmosavleT evropa da dsT
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
15
xarjebis gawevis saSualeba maT umetesobas ar gaaCnia. saxelmwifos xarjebs rac Seexeba, 2006 welTan Sedare-
biT, 2007 wels jandacvaze gaweuli xarjebi 34,4%-iT, xolo ganaTlebaze _ 13,3%-iT gaizarda.
miuxedavad amisa, maTze saxelmwifo biujetis mTliani xarjebis kvlav umniSvnelo wili modis: jandacvaze
_ 5%-is, ganaTlebaze _ 7%-is farglebSi. mTliani Sida produqtTan mimarTebaSi es monacemebi kidev ufro
naklebia: 2007 wels jandacvaze gaweuli xarjebis wili mSp-Si daaxloebiT 1,5%-s, xolo ganaTlebaze _ 2,2%-s
Seadgenda. zemoTqmuli naTlad metyvelebs imaze, Tu ramdenad didi mniSvneloba aqvs, mwiri dafinansebis
pirobebSi, adamianuri kapitalis warmoebis procesSi ucxouri investiciebis gonivrul gamoyenebas.
fizikuri infrastruqturis Sefaseba sami maCveneblis agregaciiT xdeba: safariani gzebis procentuli
SefardebiT qveynis Sida gzebis saerTo sigrZesTan, sahaero satvirTo gadazidvebiT (milioni tona erT kilo-
metrze) da satelefono xazebis sigrZiT (1000 mcxovrebze). es maCveneblebi axasiaTebs qveynis transportisa
da kavSirgabmulobis potenciur SesaZleblobebs, rac haeriviT aucilebelia vaWrobis ganviTarebisTvis.
fizikuri infrastruqturis agregirebulma maCveneblebma saqarTvelosTvis 16 punqti Seadgina, rac erTi
SexedviT arc ise dabalia 123 qveynis saSualo maCvenebelze, romelic 20-s Seadgens. Tumca, am maCveneblebiT,
miuxedavad Tavisi geopolitikuri da satranzito potencialisa, saqarTvelo mxolod ganviTarebad qveynebs
utoldeba da mkveTrad CamorCeba saSualo maCvenebels qveynebis yvela danarCen jgufSi: samxreT-aRmosavleT
evropasa da dsT-sac (saSualo maCvenebeli 29), evrokavSiri-10-sac (32) da ganviTarebul qveynebsac (45).
aRsaniSnavia, rom infrastruqturis, upirvelesad ki, gzebis, ganviTareba bolo wlebSi saqarTvelos mTa-
vrobis umniSvnelovanes prioritets warmoadgens. 2006-2009 wlebSi dagegmilia 400 km saerTaSoriso da 340 km
Sidasaxelmwifoebrivi mniSvnelobis gzebis mSenebloba da reabilitacia, rac ukve intensiurad xorcieldeba.
amis gaTvaliswinebiT, SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom saqarTvelos fizikuri infrastruqturis maCvenebeli sagr-
Znoblad gaumjobesdeba, Tu, ra Tqma unda, daixveweba Sesabamisi dargis statistikac. niSandoblivia, rom statis-
tikur samuSaoTa 2008 wlis saxelmwifo programaSi transportirebisa da kavSirgabmulobis statistika saerTod
ar aris naxsenebi.
safinanso Suamavlobis ganviTarebis xarisxis dasadgenad gamoyenebulia kerZo seqtorebze gacemuli kre-
ditis mTliani Sida produqtTan Sefardeba, romelmac saqarTvelosTvis 4 puntqi Seadgina, rac 27-jer nak-
lebia pirvel adgilze gasul aSS-sTan da 12,8-jer naklebia meore adgilze gasul germaniasTan SedarebiT.
aRsaniSnavia, rom postsabWoTa qveynebSi es maCvenebeli aseve dabalia da 3-dan (azerbaijani da somxeTi)
18-mde (latvia) meryeobs. qveynebis am kategoriidan igi yvelaze maRalia latviaSi (18) da estoneTSi (17), da-
narCenebSi ki 3-dan 11-mde farglebSia. aRsaniSnavia, rom es maCvenebeli yvelaze dabalia samxreT-aRmosavleT
evropisa da dsT-s jgufSi (sadac Sedis saqarTveloc) da 8-s Seadgens, maSin roca ganviTarebuli qveynebis
jgufSi ki 51.
ra perspeqtivebia safinanso Suamavlobis xarisxis amaRlebis TvalsazrisiT?
Tu qveynis mTliani Sida produqtis dargobriv struqturas gadavxedavT, naTelia, rom safinanso Suama-
vloba qveynis erT-erTi yvelaze swrafad mzardi dargia. marTalia, misi wili mTliani Sida produqtSi jer-
jerobiT 2%-isis farglebSia, magram zrdis tempebi namdvilad STambeWdavia: 2005 wels _ 52,8%, 2006 wels _
36,9%, 2007 wels _ 14,7%. amave periodebSi mSp-s zrdis tempi Sesabamisad, 9,4%-dan da 12,4%-mde meryeobda.
bolo sami weliwadSi sabanko sistemis aqtivebi 2,8-jer gaizarda da mTliani Sida produqtis 42,4% Sead-
gina, nacvlad 21,9%-isa 2005 wels. bankebis mier ekonomikis dakreditebis moculoba amave periodSi 2,7-jer
gaizarda da mSp-s 26,6% Seadgina (2005 wels _ 14,6%), xolo depozitebi _ 2,4-jer da mSp-s 16,8% Seadgina (2005
wels _ 10,1%).
amdenad, aqamde aRwerili sami maCveneblis mixedviT, saqarTvelos mdgomareoba naklebad saxarbieloa, gan-
sakuTrebiT adamianuri kapitalis indeqsis mixedviT. rac Seexeba danarCen ors, Tu bolo wlebSi infrastru-
qturis mSeneblobis da sabanko sistemis zrdis tempebs gaviTvaliswinebT, viTareba ufro imedismomcemia.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
16
struqturuli da instituciuri TvalsazrisiT ki, vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsis mniSvnelovani kom-
ponentebia Sida da saerTaSoriso finansebi.
Sida finansebi aRwerilia iseTi maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa mTliani Sida dagrovebis (mTliani Sida pro-
duqts gamoklebuli saboloo momxmareblis xarjebi) Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan. es maCvenebeli
saqarTvelosaTvis 41-s Seadgenda, rac 4 punqtiT dabalia, vidre saSualod samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa
da dsT-s qveynebis jgufSi da 11-13 punqtiT dabalia, vidre aq ganxiluli qveynebis danarCeni jgufebis
mixedviT.
rogorc cnobilia, saboloo moxmarebis maRali wili mTlian Sida produqtSi mosaxleobis cxovrebis do-
nis dabal xarisxze miuTiTebs, ris gamoc sazogadoeba iZulebulia miRebuli Semosavlebis meti nawili (Tu
mTlianad ara) mimdinare moTxovnilebebis dakmayofilebaze mimarTos da naklebi _ dagrovebaze. sagulisxmoa,
rom Tu 2005 wels saboloo moxmarebis xarjebi mTliani Sida produqtSi 84,3%-s Seadgenda, 2006 da 2007 wle-
bSi es maCvenebeli, Sesabamisad, 94.1%-mde da 92,5%-mde gaizarda, rac namdvilad damafiqrebelia.
saerTaSoriso finansebi Sefasebulia rogorc mTliani sagareo valis momsaxurebis (procentulad mTlian
erovnul SemosavlebTan) da moklevadiani valis (procentulad mTliani sagareo valTan) agregatuli ma-
Cvenebeli. Cveni qveynis mixedviT man 133 Seadgina da gadaaWarba saSualo maCvenebels ganxiluli qveynebis
yvela jgufis mixedviT (ganviTarebuli qveynebis garda), rac qveynis sagareo davalianebis tvirTis simZimeze
metyvelebs.
qveynis instituciuri xarisxi regulaciis xarisxisa da korufciis kontrolis maCveneblebiT xasiaTdeba.
regulaciis xarisxi asaxavs mTavrobis politikas biznes-garemos, fasebis kontrolis, sagareo vaWrobisa da
warmoebis ganviTarebis mimarT. korufciis kontrolis maCvenebeli ki, romelic sociologiuri gamokvleve-
bis Sedegebs eyrdnoba, asaxavs korufciis gavrcelebis xarisxs. maRali maCvenebeli miuTiTebs instituciuri
xarisxis ukeTesobaze.
saSualo maCvenebeli yvelaze dabali samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebis jgufSi iyo (44),
yvelaze maRali ki _ ganviTarebuli qveynebis jgufSi (92). saqarTvelosTvis am maCvenebelma 38 Seadgina da
faqtobrivad gauswro mxolod zogierT postsabWoTa (belorusia _ 27, ruseTi _ 34, ukraina _ 35, azerbaija-
ni _ 36) da afrikis qveyanas (kongos respublika _ 15, angola _ 23, zimbabve _ 25, burundi _ 31, sudani _ 33,
nigeria _ 33, centraluri afrikis respublika _ 35).
aRniSnuli maCveneblis mixedviT Cveni qveynis mdgomareoba marTlac damafiqrebelia. arada, sxva bolo-
droindeli reitingebiT saqarTvelom swored am sferoSi gadainacvla mowinave poziciebze. magaliTad, mso-
flio bankis reitingiT, biznesis warmarTvis simartivis mixedviT saqarTvelom 178 qveyanas Soris 2006 wels
35-e, xolo 2007 wels me-18 adgili daikava. marTalia, biznesis warmarTvis simartivis xarisxi ekonomikis
regulaciis xarisxis mxolod erT komponents _ biznes-garemos liberalizacias axasiaTebs, magram am kompo-
nentis roli Zalze mniSvnelovania.
regulaciis xarisxTan erTad, instituciuri xarisxi korufciis kontrolis maCvenebliTac xasiaTdeba.
saerTaSoriso organizacia Transparency International yovelwliurad aqveynebs qveynebis reitingebs korufciis
aRqmis indeqsis mixedviT. es ukanaskneli mewarmeTa da analitikosTa mier korufciis aRqmis xarisxs asaxavs
da 10-baliani sistemiT afasebs. 10 bali korufciis ararsebobaze miuTiTebs.
2006 wlis monacemebiT, saqarTvelo 163 qveyanas Soris 2,8 quliT 99-e adgilze iyo. 2007 wels saqarTve-
lom korufciis kontrolis maCvenebeli 20 punqtiT gaiumjobesa da 179 qveyanas Soris 79-e adgilze gadai-
nacvla da mniSvnelovnad gauswro imave regionul jgufSi Semaval iseT qveynebs, rogorebicaa somxeTi (99-e
adgili), albaneTi (105-e adgili), moldaveTi (111-e adgili), ekraina (118-e adgili), ruseTi (118-e adgili),
azerbaijani, belorusia, yazaxeTi, yirgizeTi (150-e adgili TiToeuls), TurqmeneTi (162-e adgili) da uzbeke-
Ti (175-e adgili).
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
17
yovelive zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, saeWvoa, rom instituciuri xarisxis maCvenebeli adekvaturad asa-
xavdes saqarTveloSi arsebul viTarebas. yovel SemTxvevaSi, momavalSi am indikatoris mniSvnelovan gaumjo-
besebas SeiZleba velodoT.
qveynebis ekonomikuri struqtura Sefasebulia iseTi maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa soflis meurneobaSi Se-
qmnili damatebuli Rirebulebis wili mTlian Sida produqtSi. aRniSnuli maCvenebeli tradiciulad dabalia
ganviTarebuli da maRali _ ganviTarebadi qveynebisaTvis. 123 qveyanas Soris igi 25-dan (gvinea-bisau) 66-mde
meryeobs.
saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi es maCvenebeli 54-s Seadgens, rac axlosaa ganviTarebadi qveynebisa da samxreT-
aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebis saSualo maCvenebelTan. aSkaraa, rom saqarTvelos agraruli po-
tenciali arasakmarisadaa CarTuli ekonomikuri zrdis samsaxurSi anu qveynis bunebrivi resursebi (klimati,
niadagi, wyali da a.S.) da maTze dafuZnebuli fardobiTi upiratesobebi jer kidev naklebad aris gamoyene-
buli.
saqarTvelos ekonomikis agraruli seqtoris ganviTarebis realuri perspeqtivis gansazRvris Tvalsa-
zrisiT, damafiqrianebelia saxelmwifo biujetis xarjebSi soflis meurneobaze gaweuli xarjebis dinamika:
2005 weli _ 1,8%, 2006 wels _ 1,6%, 2007 wels _ 1,1%, 2008 wels ki _ 0,9%. am dargis dafinansebis moculoba
absolutur maCveneblebSic mcirdeba. kerZod, 2007 wlisTvis soflis meurneobaze gaweulma xarjebma 2006
wlis analogiuri maCveneblis 84% Seadgina, xolo 2008 wlisTvis gaTvaliswinebulma dafinansebam (49 mln
lari) _ 91,4%.
am fonze garkveul winaaRmdegobas vawydebiT, rodesac vecnobiT 2008-2012 wlebis samTavrobo progra-
mas „erTiani saqarTvelo siRaribis gareSe,` romelic soflis meurneobis efeqtianobis zrdas gvpirdeba da
momavali 5 wlis ganmalobaSi qveynis mTlian eqsportSi am dargis produqciis wilis 25%-mde gazrdas varau-
dobs.
makroekonomikuri stabiluroba samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsisa da mimdinare angariSis balansis (pro-
centulad mTlian Sida produqtTan) bazaze fasdeba. qveynebis mixedviT igi sakmaod did diapazonSi meryeobs:
18-dan (angola, zimbabve) 108-mde (omani, mali).
saqarTvelo am maCvenebliT (84) dasavleTis qveynebs (evrokavSiris axali wevrebis jgufi _ 81 da ganvi-
Tarebuli qveynebis jgufi _ 89) miuaxlovda da mkveTrad aWarbebs saSualo maCveneblebs Tavis regionul
jgufSi (samxreT-aRmosavleT evropa da dsT _ 63).
qveynis makroekonomikuri stabilurobis xarisxis aseTi maRali maCvenebeli aSkara miRwevaa, radgan swo-
red 2006 wlidan daiwyo aRniSnuli indikatoris rogorc erTi, ise meore komponentis gauareseba, rac naTlad
Cans qvemoT motanili monacemebidan.
SedarebiT kargi Sedegi, savaraudod, sxva qveynebSi inflaciis ufro maRali doniT unda iyos ganpirobebu-
li. bolodroindeli realiebis gaTvaliswinebiT, saqarTvelos morigi Sefaseba am sferoSi naklebad saxarbielo
iqneba.
2005 2006 2007
mimdinare angariSis deficiti procentulad mTlian Sida produqtTan 10.9 14.9 19.0
inflacia 6.2 8.8 11.0
cxrili 6.
mimdinare angariSis deficitisa da inflaciis dinamika saqarTveloSi, 2005-2007
wyaro: saqarTvelos erovnuli banki
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
18
garemos sijansaRe, rogorc kompleqsuri fenomeni, raodenobrivad iseT maCveneblebis agregaciiTaa daxasia-
Tebuli, rogoricaa mtknari wylis wvdoma (mosaxleobis wili, visTvisac xelmisawvdomia mtknari wyali), sanita-
ruli wvdoma (mosaxleobis wili, visTvisac xelmisawvdomia adeqvaturi sanitaruli pirobebi) da moxmarebuli
energiis erTeulze myidvelobiTunarianobis paritetiT Sefasebuli mTliani Sida produqti. aRsaniSnavia, rom
qveynebis sxvadasxva jgufebis mixedviT es maCvenebeli TiTqmis erT donezea _ 14-17-is farglebSi, saqarTvelos-
Tvis ki igi 16-s Seadgens.
vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareoba savaWro politikisa da ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT iseTi maCveneble-
biTaa Sefasebuli, rogorebicaa sagareo savaWro gaxsnilobisa (ucxouri saqonlis adgilobriv bazarze SeRwevis
xarisxi) da ucxouri bazrebis wvdomis xarisxi. am maCveneblebiT saqarTvelo Tanabar mdgomareobaSia ara marto
samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebTan, aramed dasavleT evropisa da ganviTarebul qveynebTanac ki.
amaSi mniSvnelovani roli iTamaSa saqarTvelos gawevrianebam vaWrobis msoflio organizaciaSi da sazoga-
dod, sagareo vaWrobis liberalizaciam. sxvadasxva qveynebis mixedviT vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareobis
analizi uCvenebs, rom vaWrobis liberalizaciis komponenti mniSvnelovnad ganisazRvravs ganviTarebadi qveynebis
vg-indeqsis sidides. savaWro gaxsnilobis komponentis wvlili vg-indeqsSi 15%-s Seadgens.
Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom 2007 wlis 1 seqtembridan saqarTveloSi sabaJo tarifebis umetesi nawili ganulda,
qveynis sagareo savaWro gaxsnilobis morigi maCvenebeli albaT mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba, rasac samwuxarod ver
vetyviT ucxouri bazrebis wvdomis xarisxze.
marTalia, evrokavSirma saqarTvelos GSP+-is reJimiT sargeblobis ufleba 2011 wlamde gauxangrZliva da 7,2
aTasi dasaxelebis produqcia kvlavac sabaJo gadasaxadis gareSe Seva evropul bazarze, magram es aSkarad arasak-
marisi nabijebia: jer erTi, am SeRavaTiT realurad, mxolod 10-mde dasaxelebis produqciis (upiratesad, Txili,
ualkoholo sasmelebi, izotopebi, mwvanili, Tafli da feroSenadnobebi) mwarmoeblebi Tu sargebloben. esec ar
iyos, qarTuli eqsportis umTavres sisustes arasatarifo barierebi warmoadgens, rogorebicaa produqciis teq-
nikuri, sanitaruli, fotosanitaruli da sxva standartebis dacva.
dReisTvis, UNCTAD-is vaWrobis kontrolis Sefasebis kodirebis sistemis mixedviT, asamde gansxvavebuli ara-
satarifo barieria. bevrma qveyanam jer kidev me-20 saukunis 90-ian wlebSi daiwyo sakanonmdeblo bazis srulyofa
maTi gadalaxvisTvis. saqarTvelos ki am mimarTulebiT jer kidev bevri ram aqvs gasakeTebeli.
zemoaRniSnuli faqtoruli maCveneblebis agregaciis Sedegad miRebuli faqtoruli Sefasebis maCvenebeli
(559) wina wlis doneze darCa, Tumca, saqarTvelom 69-e adgilidan 73-e adgilze gadainacvla.
vg-indeqsis Sedegobrivi komponentis misaRebad ki, rogorc zemoT avRniSneT, gamoiyeneba vaWrobis mdgomare-
obisa da ekonomikuri da socialuri keTildReobis maCveneblebi.
pirveli maTgani daxasiaTebulia iseTi indikatorebiT, rogorebicaa: saqonlis eqsportis wili saqonlis mso-
flio eqsportSi, momsaxurebis eqsportis wili momsaxurebis msoflio eqsportSi, bazris koncentraciis indeqsi
qveynidan saqonlis eqsportisTvis da sagareo vaWrobis (eqsporti-importis jami) Sefardeba mTlian Sida produ-
qtTan.
am maCvenebliT saqarTvelo, romelsac 90 qula aqvs mxolod 6 punqtiT uswrebs ganviTarebadi qveynebis jgu-
fs saSualo maCvenebels da CamorCeba ganxiluli qveynebis sxva jgufebs: samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s
qveynebis jgufs _ 11 punqtiT, evrokavSiris axali wevri qveynebis jgufs _ 18 punqtiT da ganviTarebuli qveynebis
jgufs _ 33 punqtiT.
ekonomikuri da socialuri keTildReobis maCvenebeli xuT komponents moicavs: keTildReobis indeqss, mosa-
xleobis wignierebis dones, dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodnel xangrZlivobas, qalebisa da mamakacebis Semosav-
lebs Soris Tanafardobas da qalebis wils mTlian samuSao ZalasTan mimarTebaSi. am maCveneblis mixedviT saqar-
Tvelos qulam 299 Seadgina, rac 36 punqtiT sWarbobs analogiur saSualo maCvenebels ganviTarebadi qveynebis
mixedviT.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
19
Tumca, CamorCeba saSualo maCvenebels samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebis jgufis mixedviT _ 33
punqtiT, evrokavSiris axali wevri qveynebis jgufis mixedviT _ 45 punqtiT da ganviTarebuli qveynebis jgufis
mixedviT _ 96 punqtiT.
vaWrobis mdgomareobisa da ekonomikuri da socialuri keTildReobis maCveneblebis agregaciiT miRebuli
Sedegobrivi Sefasebis jamuri maCvenebeli 7 punqtiT gauaresda da 390 Seadgina, ris gamoc am maCvenebliT saqar-
Tvelom 51-e adgilze gadainacvla, nacvlad manamde dakavebuli 45-e adgilisa.
amdenad, vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsis gauaresebasTan erTad, mTeli rigi statistikuri monacemebiT
saqarTvelo mniSvnelovnad CamorCeba danarCen qveynebs, rac ara marto qveynis eqsportze orientaciis mniSvne-
lobis Seufaseblobaze da vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis integraciis dabal xarisxze miuTiTebs, aramed am procesze
moqmedi mTeli rigi faqtorebis Tanmimdevruli, kompleqsuri gadawyvetis aucileblobazec.
10. saimedo statistikis molodinSi
vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsi erT-erTi TvalsaCino magaliTia imisa, Tu ra seriozuli moTxovnebis wina-
Sea erovnuli statistika, romlisganac msoflio informaciuli sistema moiTxovs adekvatur monacemebs saerTa-
Soriso SedarebebisTvis. am mxriv mTavrobebs sul ufro meti pasuxismgebloba ekisrebaT, Tumca qveynebis mniSv-
nelovani nawili bolomde jer kidev ver an ar acnobierebs saimedo statistikis organizaciis aucileblobas da,
samwuxarod, saqarTvelo maT Sorisaa.
marTalia, ukanasknel periodSi mTavrobis mxridan ukve anonsirebulia statistikis departamentis ekonomi-
kuri ganviTarebis saministrodan gamoyofis da calke struqturad Camoyalibebis gegma, magram misi realizebis
konkretuli vadebi da modeli jerjerobiT mainc naklebad TvalsaCinoa.
udavo faqtia, rom kargi mmarTveloba damokidebulia karg institutebze. am ukanasknelTagan statis-
tikuri samsaxuri prioritetulia, radgan masze mniSvnelovanwilad aris damokidebuli ara marto kargi
mmarTveloba, aramed danarCeni institutebis warmatebuli funqcionirebac. ama Tu im qveynis statistikuri
sistema ara marto mocemuli qveynis, aramed globaluri sainformacio sistemis nawilia.
ama Tu im qveynis miRwevebi Tu Seferxebebi danarCeni samyarosTvis mxolod srulyofili statistikis
enazea gasagebi da xelmisawvdomi. gamoricxuli ar aris, rom saqarTvelos seriozuli CamorCena zemoT moyva-
nili zogierTi maCveneblis mixedviT msoflios danarCeni qveynebis, gansakuTrebiT ki dabalganviTarebuli
qveynebis, maCveneblenTan SedarebiT, swored statistikuri monacemebis simwiriT iyos gamowveuli.
sayovelTaod aRiarebulia, rom statistika Zviri fufunebaa, magram aucilebelia, rom saxelmwifom Tavisi ganviTa-
rebis ama Tu im etapze sworad gansazRvros prioritetebi am sferoSi da upasuxos kiTxvas: ra ufro Zviri ujdeba mas _
kargi statistika, Tu statistikis arqona. albaT, udavoa, rom es ukanaskneli sazogadoebas ufro Zvirad ujdeba.
sagulisxmoa is garemoeba, rom saqarTvelo, romelic evropasTan integraciisken iswrafvis, mTeli rigi
maCveneblebiT (adamianuri kapitali, fizikuri infrastruqtura, safinanso Suamavloba, Sida finansebi, ins-
tituciuri xarisxi, ekonomikis struqtura) mniSvnelovnad CamorCeba TviT evrokavSirTan uaxloes warsulSi
mierTebul qveynebs. am maCveneblebSi gansxvavebis Semcirebisken swrafva Sesabamis sferoSi qveynis ekonomiku-
ri politikis srulyofis aucilebel orientirad unda iqces.
rogorc zemoT motanil monacemTa Sedarebebi cxadyofs, vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis sferoSi saqarTvelos
CamorCenis erT-erTi seriozuli mizezi adamianuri kapitalis rolis araadeqvaturi Sefasebaa, romelic gasu-
li saukunis 90-ian wlebSi iRebs saTaves. qveyanaSi ganviTarebuli ekonomikuri da socialuri kataklizmebi gan-
sakuTrebiT mwvaved ganaTlebis sistemaze aisaxa, Tumca, am sferoSi dagrovili problemebis daZlevis efeqtiani
strategia, garkveuli mcdelobebis miuxedavad, jer kidev ar gamokveTila.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
20
yvelaze uxeSi SefasebebiT, dReisaTvis saqarTveloSi samuSao Zalis yvelaze aqtiuri nawili _ daaxloebiT 45
wlamde asakis mosaxleoba ar flobs dasaqmebisa da sazogadoebaSi Rirseuli adgilis dasakaveblad aucilebel
ganaTlebasa da profesionalizms, samuSao Cvevebsa da gamocdilebas. am asaks zemoT myofi mosaxleoba, romelic,
met-naklebad, yvela am cenzs akmayofilebs, samuSao adgilebis simciris gamo, moklebulia Tavisi profesiona-
lizmisa da unar-Cvevebis gamovlenis SesaZleblobas. swored es aris mizezi imisa, rom aqtiuri mosaxleobis didi
nawili emigrirebulia sazRvargareT da mxolod fuladi gzavnilebis saxiT SeuZliaT qveynis ekonomikur cxo-
vrebaSi monawileobis miReba.
adamianuri kapitalis saTanadod Seufasebloba ekonomikuri politikis erT-erTi umTavresi Cavardnaa.
qveynis saeqsporto SesaZleblobebis arasaTanado Sefaseba da misi ekonomikuri zrdis samsaxurSi Cayenebis
realuri xedvis nakleboba ekonomikuri zrdis meore xelisSemSleli faqtoria. vg-indeqsis ganmsazRvreli
faqtorebisa da maCveneblebis analizi cxadyofs, rom sakmaod dabalia qveynis fardobiTi upiratesobebis,
kerZod, geopolitikuri, satranzito, agraruli, rekreaciuli potencialis gamoyenebis done.
saeqsporto SesaZleblobebi gafarToebis mamoZravebel Zalad da katalizatorad ganviTarebuli qveynebis
bazrebze wvdoma unda iqces, risTvisac unda daCqardes saerTaSoriso standartebis damkvidreba da xarisxis
erovnuli infrastruqturis Seqmna. aRniSnulis miRweva saxelmwifos politikuri nebisa da Zalisxmevis gareSe
warmoudgenelia. mTavrobis ekonomikuri programis erT-erT wamyvan prioritetad saeqsporto warmoebaSi adgi-
lobrivi da ucxouri investiciebis mozidvis xelSewyoba unda iqces. investiciebis, romelTa soliduri wili
adgilobriv mrewvelobaSi unda dabanddes.
11. samrewvelo evolucia
qarTuli mrewvelobis dafinansebis da momavali gamowvevebis sakiTxi pirdapir ukavSirdeba rogorc sava-
Wro politikis reformirebis, aseve dasaqmebis umwvaves problematikas. 2007 wels saqarTvelos mrewveloba
erTob dinamikuri iyo. misi wliuri zrdis tempi, romelmac 13,8% Seadgina, sagrZnoblad aRemateboda mTeli
ekonomikis zrdas (12,4%).
es Zlieri zrda, uwinares yovlisa, saqarTvelos ekonomikis gajansaRebis jer kidev mimdinare process
asaxavs, romelic bolo aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi STambeWdavi gaumjobesebis miuxedavad, mainc Zalze CamorCeba
sabazro ekonomikaze gardamaval periodamde arsebul dones. evropis rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis bankis
90
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
grafiki 2. mSp-is dinamika da mrewvelobis zrda (%)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
realuri mSp (1998 -100) samrewvelo produqcia (1998 - 100)
wyaro: saqarTvelos ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saministros statistikis departamenti
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
21
monacemebiT, 2007 wels saqarTvelos mSp-s 1989 wlis donis mxolod 61% Seadgina. evropis rekonstruqciisa da
ganviTarebis bankis mier Seswavlil qveynebs Soris yvelaze dabali maCvenebeli am mxriv moldaveTs aqvs (51%),
saqarTvelos mezobeli somxeTi da azerbaijani ki, Sesabamisad, 137%-iT da 159%-iT, saukeTesoTa Soris arian
miuxedavad imisa, rom SeiaraRebuli konfliqtebi sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg maTac gadaitanes.
zrdis maRali tempis miuxedavad, mrewvelobis seqtors amJamad saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi Zalze mokr-
Zalebuli wili aqvs. resursebiT mdidar ekonomikaSi, rogoric azerbaijani da ruseTia, es Tanafardoba
aSkarad maRalia, Tumca, igi aseve sakmaod maRalia iseT SedarebiT mcire zomis ekonomikebSic, rogoricaa
estoneTi da ungreTi, rom araferi vTqvaT CexeTze.
statistikuri Sedareba da faqtobrivi monacemebic imaze metyvelebs, rom saqarTvelo Tavisi samrewvelo
potencialis Zalze mcire nawils iyenebs. jerac ar momxdara gardamavali periodis sawyis etapze miyenebuli
zianis kompensireba, rodesac jarTi wlebis manZilze, qarTuli eqsportis umsxviles sasaqonlo kategoriad
iqca.
amis mizezi nawilobriv isic aris, rom privatizaciiT ZiriTadad insaiderebma da araefeqtianma „wiTel-
ma direqtorebma` isargebles, romlebmac xelT igdes industrialuri aqtivebi. da es moxda saqarTvelos
mrewvelobis zogierT tradiciul seqtorSi gamokveTili fardobiTi upiratesobebis miuxedavad, romlebic
dakavSirebulia bunebriv resursebTan (noyieri niadagi iseT damatebuli Rirebulebis Semcvleli sasoflo-
sameurneo produqtebis warmoebisTvis, rogoricaa xili, bostneuli, Rvino, xorci da rZe; aseve miwisqveSa
mineraluri resursebi), jer kidev iaf muSaxelTan (miuxedavad imisa, rom oficialurad statistikis monace-
mebiT, realuri xelfasebi 2003-2006 wlebSi 77%-iT gaizarda) da aSkarad idealur geografiul mdebareobas-
Tan im gzajvaredinze, romliTac evropa dinamikur ekonomikur zonas _ azias ukavSirdeba.
12. seqtoruli rentgeni
saqarTvelos mrewvelobis rekonstruqciis amJamindeli procesis analizi sxvadasxva komponentis mixed-
viT SeiZleba. oficialuri statistikiT, 2007 wels samrewvelo warmoebis 70,1% gadamamuSavebel mrewvelo-
baze modioda. sididiT momdevnoa eleqtroenergiis, bunebrivi airisa da wylis miwodeba (21,4%) da samTomo-
povebiTi mrewveloba (8,5%). bolo or seqtors didi, gamouyenebeli potenciali gaaCnia. es gansakuTrebiT
hidroenergiis gamomuSavebaze iTqmis, romelic prioritetul seqtorad ganisazRvra. am seqtorSi saqarTve-
los advilad SeuZlia iqces msxvil eqsportiorad, gansakuTrebiT mezobel TurqeTSi. sakmaod STambeWdavia
samTomopovebiTi mrewvelobis ganviTarebac.
rac Seexeba gadamamuSavebel mrewvelobas, aq mdgomareoba gansxvavebulia. 2007 wels am seqtorSi oTxi
qveseqtori dominirebda (mTeli warmoebis TiTqmis 84%): lomis wili (43%) sakvebis, sasmelis da Tambaqos
warmoebaze modioda, mas 17%-ani wiliT pirveladi da warmoebuli liTonis produqtebi mosdevda (ZiriTadad,
feroSenadnobebi, romelic dRes saeqsporto saqonlis pirvel kategorias warmoadgens). momdevno poziciebi
15%-iani wiliT sxva araliTonisSemcvel mineralur produqtebs (upiratesad, cementi) da 9%-iani wiliT qi-
miuri mrewvelobis produqcias ekava.
Tu TiToeuli qvekomponentis dinamikas davakvirdebiT, davinaxavT sakmaod did sxvaobas sakvebi, sasme-
li da Tambaqos warmoebisa da yvela sxva seqtors Soris. maTi zrdis tempi nominalur gamosaxulebaSi 2005-
2007 wlebSi aseTi iyo: sxva araliTonisSemcveli mineraluri produqtebi _171%, rezini da plastmasi _
94%, pirveladi da warmoebuli liTonis produqtebi _ 84%, qimiuri produqtebi _ 61%, qaRaldis warmoeba
da beWdviTi produqcia _ 61%, satransporto aRWurviloba _ 59%, sakvebi, sasmeli da Tambaqos produqcia
_ 20%.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
22
Tu gaviTvaliswinebT sakveb produqtebze fasebis zrdis SedarebiT maRal temps, unda vivaraudoT, rom
saqarTvelos industriis es seqtori praqtikulad ar gazrdila an odnavi klebac ki ganicada, miuxedavad imi-
sa, rom sakvebi produqtebis adgilobrivi moxmareba sakmaod intensiuria. gansakuTrebiT, iseT produqtebTan
mimarTebaSi, rogoricaa rZis nawarmi, xili da bostneuli.
sakvebi produqciis seqtoris naklebi ganviTareba seriozuli SeSfoTebis sagania. es mxolod nawilo-
briv SeiZleba aixsnas qarTuli Rvinisa da mineraluri wylis eqsportze ruseTis mier dawesebuli embargos
gavleniT. samwuxarod, es ufro saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis Rrma struqturul krizisze miuTiTebs,
romlis dasaZlevad xelisuflebas jerjerobiT raime damajerebeli kompleqsuri ekonomikuri politika ar
warmoudgenia.
saqarTvelos soflis meurneoba, romelzec mTliani dasaqmebis 55,6% modis, warmoebis moculobisa da mwar-
moeblurobis donis mxriv iseT niSnulebze `gaiyina~, romlebic saharis samxreTiT mdebare afrikuli qveynebis
doneebs Tu Seesabameba (magaliTad, erT Zroxaze rZis wliuri warmoeba, gaeros-s sursaTisa da soflis meur-
neobis organizaciis (FAO) monacemebis mixedviT, mxolod 937 kg-s Seadgens maSin, rodesac somxeTSi Sesabamisi
maCvenebeli 1965 kg, xolo ruseTSi _ 3221 kg-ia).
mzardi adgilobrivi moTxovnis miuxedavad, 2007 wels sasoflo-sameurneo produqcia 1989 wlis dones
mxolod 8%-iT aRemateba, maSin, rodesac samrewvelo produqciis zrdam imave periodSi 85% Seadgina. kve-
bis mrewvelobis umTavresi problema saqarTveloSi pirveladi sasoflo-sameurneo warmoebis mniSvnelovani
gaumjobesebis arsebobaa. agraruli produqciis gadamamuSavebelma yvela wamyvanma kompaniam, nedleuli an
ucxoeTidan unda Semoitanos an adgilze sakuTari sanedleule bazis SeqmnaSi unda moaxdinos investireba,
rac im finansuri da menejeruli resursebis sxva mimarTulebiT warmarTvas iwvevs, romlebsac kompaniebi
ukeT gamoiyenebdnen ZiriTad biznesSi.
saqarTvelos mrewvelobis ganviTarebis meore mniSvnelovani Semaferxebeli garemoeba Sesabamis ganaTlebaze
gaweuli danaxarjebis simcirea. arada, yvela kargi maCveneblebis mqone qveyana (magaliTad, slovenia da baltiis-
pireTis saxelmwifoebi) ganviTarebis strategias ufro da ufro maRalteqnologiur saqmianobebze afuZneben,
ageben da TiTqmis 4-jer mets abandeben am seqtorSi, vidre saqarTvelo. sxva qveynebi ki, magaliTad, moldova,
romelic saqarTvelos msgavsad ucxoeTSi masobrivi migraciiT zaraldeba, iZulebulia biujetis didi nawi-
li adamianuri kapitalis eqsportis kompensaciaze daxarjos, vinaidan icis, rom emigraciaSi xSirad yvelaze
niWieri da mewarmeobis unariT dajildovebuli moqalaqeebi midian.
adamianur kapitalSi arasakmarisi investirebis uSualo Sedegia muSaxelis anazRaurebis swrafi zrda.
mrewvelobaSi saSualo Tviuri xelfasi 2004 wlis 201 laridan (104 dolari) 2006 wels 308 laramde (173 do-
lari), 2007 wlis bolosTvis ki 396 laramde (236 dolari) gaizarda.
ganaTleba rom mTavar Semaferxebel faqtors ar warmoadgendes, muSaxelis anazRaurebis zrda gacilebiT
naklebi iqneboda. jer erTi imitom, rom saqarTveloSi kvlav aris masStaburi faruli umuSevroba da formalur
ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa raodenoba ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis erT mesamedze naklebs da mTeli mo-
saxleobis 13%-s Seadgens. amitom muSaxelze moTxovnis zrdas axali adamianebis dasaqmeba unda gamoewevia da ara
xelfasebis zrda.
meore mizezi, rasac aseTi Sedegi unda gamoeRo, aris is, rom dRes Zalze cota ekonomika Tu moiZebneba
msoflioSi, sadac ise advilia mSromelTa daqiraveba da gaTavisufleba, rogorc saqarTveloSi.
faqtobrivi monacemebi gviCvenebs, rom ganaTlebis problema, upirveles yovlisa, saSualo donis menej-
ments exeba. saqarTveloSi kvlav aris kargi ganaTlebis mqone elita, romelsac xSirad ganaTleba dasavleTSi
aqvT miRebuli, magram ar aris saSualo done, romelic strategiul rols TamaSobs ganviTarebul ekonomi-
kebSi.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
23
13. `dieturi~ investireba
saTanado donis muSaxelTan erTad, investiciebi manqana-danadgarebsa da sxva kapitalSi nebismieri
industriuli ganviTarebis meore mTavari komponentia, vinaidan mrewveloba, Cveulebriv, ufro kapitalte-
vadi dargia, vidre ekonomikis sxva seqtorebi, kerZod, momsaxurebis seqtori.
am TvalsazrisiT, bolo statistikuri monacemebi araerTgvarovan signalebs gvaZlevs. 2007 wels Ziri-
Tad kapitalSi mxolod 311 milioni laris investicia ganxorcielda, rac saqarTveloSi dabandebuli mTeli
investiciebis 6%-s Seadgens. investiciebis zrdam mrewvelobaSi 2007 wels wina wlebTan SedarebiT, nomi-
nalur gamosaxulebaSi 50% Seadgina. magram Tu mwarmoebelTa fasebis indeqsis zrdas gaviTvaliswinebT,
aRniSnuli sainvesticio nakadebis moculoba, gaumjobesebuli biznes-klimatis miuxedavad, ufro naklebi
aRmoCndeba, vidre aTwleulis dasawyisSi iyo.
samrewvelo produqciis dinamikasa da mrewvelobaSi investirebis dinamikas Soris Zalze didi gansxva-
vebis pirveli mizezi is aris, rom mimdinare zrda ZiriTadad ekonomikis aRdgenis process asaxavs, radgan
saqarTvelo jerac mniSvnelovnad CamorCeba sabazro ekonomikaze gardamaval periodamdel arsebul war-
moebis dones.
amitom, samrewvelo kompaniebma jerjerobiT mxolod gamouyenebeli simZlavreebiis amoqmedeba SeZles
da TavianTi mcire investiciebi warmoebis procesis `minimalur~ gaumjobesebaSi daabandes. praqtikulad
aranairi investicia ar iyo saWiro samrewvelo Senoba-nagebobebsa da ZiriTad infrastruqturaSi. mzardi
raodenobiT mxolod manqana-danadgarebi iqna Sesyiduli, romelTa importic 2007 wels mniSvnelovnad gai-
zarda.
aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, ikveTeba, rom samrewvelo kompaniebis `Tavisufali zrdis~ periodi dasas-
ruls uaxlovdeba. sicocxlisunariani samrewvelo kompaniebis umetesoba ukve TiTqmis sruli simZlavriT
muSaobs da cdilobs axali simZlavreebis amoqmedebiT daakmayofilos gazrdili moTxovna, romelsac mo-
cemul etapze umTavresad adgilobrivi bazari qmnis. am TvalsazrisiT, samrewvelo investiciebis mateba
SeiZleba axali tendenciis pirveli niSani iyos.
40
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
grafiki 3. mrewvelobaSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebis wliuri nakadebi da
samrewvelo warmoeba (2001 = 100)
2001
100.0107.3
65.6
74.1
62.4
50.7
66.2
108.5116.7
121.5
135.5
155.7
177.2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
investiciebi mrewvelobaSi samrewvelo warmoeba (%)
wyaro: saqarTvelos ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saministros statistikis departamenti
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
24
14. dakreditebis zigzagebi
bolo 5 weliwadSi sabanko sistemis ganviTareba marTlac STambeWdavia. saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis
monacemebiT, 2003 wlis miwurulsa da 2007 wlis dasasruls Soris sabanko seqtoris moTxovna rezidenti iu-
ridiuli da fizikuri pirebis mimarT 5,9-jer _ 748 milioni laridan 4421 milion laramde gaizarda, mTliani
kreditis mSp-Tan Sefardebam ki 8,7%-dan 26,1%-s miaRwia.
sanam detalurad ganvixilavT sakredito portfelis dinamikas, sainteresoa saqarTvelos sabanko siste-
mis raodenobrivi monacemebis sxva gardamaval qveynebTan Sedareba evrobankis (EBRD) cifrebze dayrdnobiT.
gardamavali ekonomikis 20 qveyanas Soris, kerZo sawarmoebis adgilobrivi dakreditebis mSp-Tan Sefarde-
bebis mixedviT saqarTvelo naklebad STambeWdavad gamoiyureboda. ufro dabali maCveneblebi qveyanaTa am
jgufSi mxolod azerbaijans, somxeTsa da yirgizeTs hqondaT.
aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, am cifrebis yuradRebiT gaanalizebaa saWiro. pirveli Sefardeba, albaT, ar
aris Zalze mniSvnelovani, vinaidan bevri kompania saqarTveloSic da sazRvargareTac saxsrebs gareSe (ara-
adgilobrivi) wyaroebidanac sesxulobs. meore mizezi, ris gamoc sifrTxile gvmarTebs is aris, rom mTliani
kreditis mSp-Tan Sefardeba qveynebis mixedviT ar aris erTgvarovani. es maCvenebeli, bunebrivia, qveynebis
ganviTarebis dones asaxavs.
Cveulebriv, rac ufro ganviTarebulia qveyana, miT ufro maRalia misi kreditebis Sefardeba mSp-Tan. ami-
tom azri ara aqvs saqarTvelos dakreditebis mSp-Tan Sefardebis Sedarebas, magaliTad, sloveniis Sesabamis
maCvenebelTan, vinaidan am qveynis mSp 11-jer aRemateba saqarTvelosas.
Tu erT sul mosaxleze mSp-is donesa da dakreditebis mSp-Tan Sefardebis korelacias movaxdenT da Tu
fokuss eqskluziurad SinameurneobaTa dakreditebis mSp-Tan Sefardebaze gavakeTebT, romelic gamoricxavs
did cdomilebas samrewvelo kompaniebis mier ucxoeTidan mozidul finansebSi, sul sxva suraTs miviRebT:
0
30
25
20
15
10
5
grafiki 4.
mTliani krediti / mSp (%)
8.7
5.7
3.0
1.9 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
sesxebi rezident iuridiul da fizikur pirebze, mSp-is %
sesxebi rezident iuridiul pirebze, mSp-is %
sesxebi fizikur pirebze, mSp-is %
mrewvelobis dakrediteba, mSp-is %
wyaro: saqarTvelos erovnuli banki
9.6
14.6
19.1
26.1
6.8
10.4
13.5
16.9
2.84.2
5.6
9.3
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
25
saqarTvelos sabanko seqtori naklebad ganviTarebuli ki ara, `zeganviTarebuli~ SeiZleba iyos ekonomikis
danarCen dargebTan SedarebiT.
saqarTvelos mSp 2006 wels 2,5-jer meti unda yofiliyo, raTa SinameurneobaTa dakreditebis done `ga-
marTlebulad~ CaTvliliyo. 2007 wels ukve SinameurneobaTa `Warbi dakreditebis~ zonaSi unda SevsuliyaviT,
vinaidan kreditebi nominalur gamosaxulebaSi 103%-iT gaizarda da mSp-is 9,3% Seadgina, rac ufro maRalia,
vidre es ruseTs 2006 wels hqonda miuxedavad imisa, rom ruseTis mSp erT sul mosaxleze 4-jer aRemateba
saqarTvelos Sesabamis maCvenebels.
statistikuri monacemebi aSkarad aisaxeba yoveldRiur cxovrebaSi, sadac samomxmareblo saqonliT va-
Wrobis bumis aSkara niSnebi ikveTeba. magaliTad, avtomobilebis importi, romelic ZiriTadad samomxmareblo
kreditebiT finansdeba, 2004 wlis 116 milioni dolaridan 2007 wlis 370 milion dolaramde gaizarda, 2006-
2007 wlebSi macivrebisa da sarecxi manqanebis importma ki 112%-iT imata. TbilisSi kreditebiT parfiumerii-
sa da tansacmlis SeZenac ki SesaZlebeli gaxda.
SinameurneobaTa dakreditebis aseTi dinamikis pirobebSi, romelic swrafi zrdiT xasiaTdeba, bankebis-
Tvis mrewveloba ar warmoadgens strategiul seqtors. marTalia, mrewvelobis dakrediteba 2003 wlis bolos
minimaluri, 18 milioni laris donidan 2007 wlis bolos 211 milion laramde gaizarda, magram ganaxevrda misi
wili mTlian sakredito portfelSi _ 2003 wels mrewvelobaze bankebis sakredito dabandebaTa 21,6% modio-
da, oTxi wlis Semdeg ki am maCvenebelma mxolod 11,9% Seadgina.
adgilobrivi krediti
kerZo sawarmoebs /
mSp (%)
adgilobrivi krediti
Sinameurneobebs / mSp (%)
mTliani krediti
arasaxelmwifo
msesxeblebs / mSp (%)
mSp erT sul mosaxleze
(aSS dolari)
estoneTi 78.4 38.7 117.1 12209
latvia 77.8 38.0 115.9 8760
xorvatia 68.7 38.2 106.9 9582
slovenia 67.1 17.0 84.1 19218
ungreTi 54.6 18.5 73.1 11127
litva 47.7 17.9 65.6 8770
bulgareTi 47.4 16.6 64.0 4088
yazaxeTi 48.1 15.8 63.9 5221
ukraina 44.9 15.3 60.2 2258
CexeTi 39.9 16.5 56.4 13896
slovakeTi 39.2 13.1 52.3 10250
poloneTi 33.4 15.6 49.0 8939
yofili iugoslaviis
respublika makedonia31.0 9.6 40.6 3113
ruseTi 31.0 7.1 38.1 6874
rumineTi 26.3 11.2 37.5 5617
moldova 27.9 2.9 30.8 988
saqarTvelo 19.7 5.6 25.3 1721
azerbaijani 12.4 4.1 16.5 2363
somxeTi 8.7 4.1 12.8 1989
yirgizeTi 10.5 2.2 12.7 549
cxrili 7.
wyaro: EBRD
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
26
msgavsi suraTia iuridiuli pirebis dakreditebis qvekomponentSic. 2003 wels mrewvelobaze modioda misi
32,9%, 2007 wels ki am seqtoris wilma mxolod 18,4% Seadgina. es maCvenebeli bevrad dabalia vaWrobis dakre-
ditebis wilze, romelsac bankebi gansakuTrebiT swyaloben (47,7%) da TiTqmis uTanabrdeba mSeneblobisa da
uZravi qonebis dakreditebis wils (15,5%).
Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom es qvekomponenti mxolod iuridiul pirebs exeba da ar moicavs individebze
gacemul ipoTekur sesxebs, romlebic bolo wlebSi sakmaod STambeWdavad izrdeba, davinaxavT, rom bankebi
ZiriTadad fokusirebulebi arian moxmarebis (importis) da uZravi qonebis dafinansebaze. es namdvilad ar
aris pozitiuri Sedegi, gansakuTrebiT Tu gaviTvaliswinebT im politikur da makroekonomikur gamowvevebs,
romlebsac saqarTvelo kvlav awydeba Tavisi ekonomikis gajansaRebis gzaze.
15. sabanko wnexi
saqarTvelos sabanko seqtori, romelmac Zalian swrafi raodenobrivi zrda ganicada, magram Tvisobrivad
bevri araferi Secvlila, axla ganviTarebis axal fazaSi unda Sevides. imisTvis, rom sakuTari wvlili Seita-
nos saqarTvelos grZelvadian mdgrad ganviTarebaSi, igi ufro metad unda gaxdes fokusirebuli msoflio
bazrebze savaWro produqciis warmoebisa da momsaxurebis dafinansebaze. Tu ara da saqarTvelo SeiZleba im
qveynebis grZel siaSi aRmoCndes (magaliTad, Cile 1982 wlis, meqsika 1994 wlis an samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis
qveynebi 1997 wlis krizisebamde), romlebmac mwvave krizisebi gadaitanes ZiriTadad sabanko sistemebis ganvi-
Tarebis araadeqvaturi modelebis gamo.
Tu bankebisa da industriuli seqtoris urTierTobas davakvirdebiT, Tvisobrivi evoluciis dawyebis
Zalze fermkrTal niSnebs davinaxavT. magaliTad, mrewvelobaze gacemuli kreditebi sul ufro metadaa de-
nominirebuli larSi (2007 wels sakredito portfelis 40% maSin, rodesac 2003 wels es maCvenebeli 11,1%
iyo), rac msesxeblebisTvis valutis gacvliTi kursis cvlebadobis nakleb risks Seicavs.
magram, mniSvnelovani evolucia ar SeiniSneba kreditis xangrZlivobasTan dakavSirebiT, rac erT-erTi
ZiriTadi faqtoria, rodesac saqme grZelvadian investiciebTan gvaqvs. 2003 wels erT welze meti vadianobis
iyo samrewvelo kompaniebisTvis gacemuli sesxebis 48,8%, 2005 wels am kategoriis sesxebi 64,7%-s aRwevda, ma-
gram Semdeg maTi wili Semcirda da 2007 wels mxolod 59,9% Seadgina. samrewvelo kreditebis wili erT welze
meti vadianobis kreditebis saerTo moculobaSi 2007 wels didi ar iyo _ sul 15,5%, anu am kategoriis mTel
kreditebSi, romlebmac 2 miliard 34 milioni lari Seadgina, mxolod 315 milion dolars aRwevda.
ekonomikur istoriaSi xSirad davoben, rom bankebis survilis, daafinanson mrewveloba, erT-erTi ganmsa-
zRvreli faqtoria maTi SesaZlebloba, moizidon grZelvadiani resursebi. Tu es SesaZlebloba ar arsebobs,
mrewvelobis dafinansebis msurveli bankebi SeiZleba TavianTi moklevadiani valdebulebebis (depozitebi)
grZelvadian aqtivebTan (grZelvadiani sesxebi samrewvelo kompaniebSi grZelvadiani investiciebis dasafi-
nanseblad) SeuTavseblobis problemis winaSe aRmoCndnen. aman ki SezRuduli likvidurobis periodebSi, risi
momswrenic Tundac amJamad varT, bankebis gakotreba SeiZleba gamoiwvios.
kontinentur evropaSi manamde, sanam 1980-ian wlebSi didi finansuri deregulireba moxdeboda, grZelva-
diani aqtivebis dafinansebaSi sakmaod aqtiur rols TamaSobdnen saxelmwifoebi. isini pirdapir afinansebdnen
grZelvadian aqtivebs ganviTarebuli bankebis meSveobiT, an iribad, erovnuli bankebis grZelvadiani portfele-
bis refinansirebis gziT. upiratesoba samrewvelo kompaniebis balansebSi am dros aqciasTan SedarebiT kredits
eniWeboda, vinaidan aRniSnul kompaniebs SedarebiT advilad miuwvdebodaT xeli subsidirebul kreditebze.
kontinenturi evropis am modelma saSualeba misca Sesabamisi qveynebis ekonomikebs, swrafad dasweodnen
bevrad ufro win wasul britanul da amerikul ekonomikebs. gasakviri ar aris, rom 1930-ian wlebSi aRniSnuli
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
27
modelis kopireba sistematurad xdeboda laTinur amerikaSi (ganviTarebis banki braziliaSi, ekonomikuri gan-
viTarebis saagento CileSi, ganviTrebis safinanso instituti meqsikaSi), mogvianebiT ki iaponiaSi, koreasa da
taivanSi. magram, droTa ganmavlobaSi es modeli mZime tvirTad daawva saxelmwifo biujetebs, ramac misi Tan-
daTanobiT SezRudva, bevr SemTxvevaSi ki gauqmebac gamoiwvia, Tumca zogierT qveyanaSi ganviTarebis bankebi
kvlavac mniSvnelovan rols TamaSoben. amis kargi magaliTia germanuli KFW jgufi _ germaniis ganviTarebis
sakredito bankis cnobili instituti.
dRes saqarTveloSic msjeloben saxelmwifos SesaZlo rolze `produqtiuli~ ekonomikis dafinansebaSi.
ufro metic, saxelmwifo `iafi sesxis~ iniciativiT gamovida da dRes mis gafarToebasac apirebs. bevrma es
iniciativebi gaakritika, rogorc populisturi reagireba socialur problemebze, romlebic bolodroin-
deli politikuri ukmayofilebis safuZveli gaxda. cxadia, arc uamisobaa, magram gadawyvetilebis mimRebebs
Soris arsebobs gancda, rom meore Taobis reformebma, romlebic xels uwyobs investiciebsa da samuSao
adgilebis Seqmnaze orientirebul maRalefeqtian zrdas, moxmarebasa da aramdgrad importze dafuZnebuli
naklebadefeqtiani zrda unda Caanacvlos.
miuxedavad imisa, rom analitikosebi mudmivad usvamdnen xazs ufro maRalefeqtiani zrdis aucileblobas,
iafi sesxebiT produqtiuli ekonomikis dakreditebis idea naadrevia da albaT, usargebloc. jer erTi imitom,
rom saxelmwifos mmarTvelobis bolodroindeli gaumjobesebis miuxedavad, jer kidev ar miuRwevia efeqtiano-
bis da neitralobis iseTi donisTvis, romelic sakmarisi iqneboda subsidirebuli dakreditebis gansakuTrebiT
mgrZnobiare gamowvevebis sapasuxod.
meorec, jerjerobiT ar Cans aseTi sqemebis aSkara aucilebloba: komerciuli bankebis kapitalis Sefar-
deba kerZo seqtorze gacemul mTlian kreditTan saukeTesoa (seb-is monacemebis mixedviT 32,1% 2007 wlis
bolos), rac saSualebas aZlevs bankebs, grZelvadiani kreditebi TavianTi kapitalidan daafinanson. garda
amisa, grZelvadiani portfelebis refinansirebisaTvis maTTvis advilad xelmisawvdomia saerTaSoriso safi-
nanso institutebis iafi grZelvadiani resursebi. es institutebi Tavad arian mzad, uSualod daafinanson
sesxiT da uzrunvelyon kapitaliT ufro meti samrewvelo kompania saqarTveloSi.
komerciuli bankebisa da saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebis warmomadgenlebTan diskusiebis dros
xSirad ikveTeba wuxili, rom maT meti samrewvelo proeqtis dafinanseba surdaT, magram ver moZebnes sakmari-
si raodenobis kargi proeqti. amrigad, problema ara valdebulebebis, aramed aqtivebis mxaresaa. Tumca, arc
meore mxarea pretenziebis gareSe: bevri samrewvelo kompania aseve Civis, rom maTTvis ar aris advili sabanko
kreditis miReba da Zalze cota banks Tu hyavs gamocdili korporatiuli bankirebi, rom araferi vTqvaT
sainvesticio bankebis arsebobaze.
amaSic aris garkveuli simarTle, rasac ganaTlebaSi zemoT naxseneb problemebTan mivyavarT. mravali
niWieri adamianis emigraciis Sedegad, rodesac bevri qarTveli ucxoeTSi warmatebuli mewarmea, saqarTvelo
axla dekapitalizaciis winaSe dgas. bevri kargi sainvesticio SesaZleblobebis miuxedavad, cotaa sainvesti-
cio proeqti, vinaidan Zalian cotaa kvalificiuri mewarme.
am fonze, gasakviri ar aris, rom saqarTvelos bankebma sainvesticio bankebiviT daiwyes moqmedeba. TavianT
saaqcio kapitals zogierTi maTgani sakuTar klient-kompaniebSi abandeben: es procesi sakmaod TvalsaCino
iyo 2007 wels, rodesac adgilobrivi bankebis kapitaluri investiciebi ianvarSi 49 milioni laridan dekem-
berSi 215 milion laramde gaizarda.
radgan bankebi, Cveulebriv TavianT investiciebs SedarebiT mokle periodiT sazRvraven, isini albaT,
Seecdebian mogeba miiRon am kompaniebis aqciebis safondo birJaze kotirebiT. aman SeiZleba TandaTan adgi-
lobrivi finansuri bazris realur ganviTarebamde migviyvanos, romelic dReisTvis Zalze SezRudulia (2006
wels safondo birJis mTliani kapitalizacia mSp-is mxolod 8,3%-s Seadgenda, rodesac ruseTis Sesabamisi
maCvenebeli 104% iyo).
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
28
16. kvanZis gasakveTad
rogorc vnaxeT, arsebobs instituciuri Seusabamoba bankebsa da samrewvelo kompaniebs Soris erTmaneTis
molodinebis dakmayofilebis TvalsazrisiT. es Seusabamoba Cans msoflio bankis `biznesis warmarTvis~ 2008
wlis angariSSi: saqarTvelos reitingi, romelic zogadad Zalian kargia, saSualoa kreditis miRebis (48-e
pozicia) da kontraqtebis Sesrulebis (42) niSniT da dabali _ biznesis daxurvis niSniT (105). awydebian ra
xangrZliv Seferxebebs da sakmaod maRal xarjebs TavianTi uflebis ganxorcielebaSi da giraos gamoyenebaSi,
bankebi eridebian samrewvelo kompaniebisTvis sesxis micemas, radgan ician, rom maTi sabuRaltro aRricxva,
miuxedavad bolodroindeli mniSvnelovani gaumjobesebisa, kvlav garkveul eWvebs badebs.
am problemebis gadasalaxad, albaT, xeli unda Seewyos samrewvelo manqanebis da mowyobilobis lizingis
sistematur gamoyenebas, gansakuTrebiT, mcire da saSualo zomis samrewvelo kompaniebis SemTxvevaSi. li-
zingis amRebis mier valdebulebis Susruleblobis SemTxvevaSi, lizingiT gamcem kompanias ar sWirdeba sasa-
marTloSi wasvla lizingiT gacemuli aqtivebis dasabruneblad, vinaidan isini misi sakuTrebaa da yvelaferi
iolad gvardeba.
dRemde, saqarTveloSi, lizingis ganviTareba ferxdeba sagadasaxado xarvezebis gamo, vinaidan igi dRg-iT
ibegreba. es ki am sicocxlisunarian da martiv finansur instuments nakleb mimzidvels xdis imave saqonlis
saSualovadiani kreditiT dafinansebasTan SedarebiT, vinaidan sargebeli, romelic lizingis qiraSi devs _
ibegreba, saSualovadiani kreditis sargebeli ki _ ara.
garda amisa, saWiroa, rac SeiZleba swrafad Seicvalos saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebis midgoma saqar-
Tvelos ekonomikis dafinansebisadmi. aSkaraa, rom maTi keTilganwyoba im bankebisadmi, romlebsac afinanseben,
ar aris usafrTxo. ra azri aqvs e.w. mcire da saSualo sawarmoebis dafinansebas, Tu es sawarmoebi umeteswilad
savaWro kompaniebia, romlebic imports axorcieleben?
an ratom finansdeboda uZravi qoneba ase ganurCevlad im dros, rodesac misi sarisko bumis niSnebi ikveTebo-
da bazris yvela segmentze? bolodroindelma movlenebma aCvena, rom es kiTxvebi sruliad legitimuria da pasuxs
moiTxovs.
saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebma, romlebic saqarTvelos bankebis dafinansebaSi monawileoben, am eta-
pze mizanSewonilia fokusireba moaxdinon sagareo Semosavlis generirebasa da danazogebis Semqmnel saqmiano-
bebze, uwinares yovlisa, mrewvelobasa da soflis meurneobaze, agreTve energiis warmoebasa da efeqtianobaze.
rac Seexeba danarCen aqtivobebs, iq maTi Careva praqtikulad arc aris saWiro da SeiZleba mxolod bankebis
aqtivebis swraf zrdas Seuwyon xeli, rac ar warmoadgens saerTaSoriso institutebis valdebulebas.
gansakuTrebiT saintereso SeiZleba iyos saerTaSoriso safinanso da wamyvani ormxrivi institutebis
mxridan energiis warmoebasa da energoefeqtianobasTan dakavSirebuli specifikuri finansuri instrumente-
bis SeTavazeba. maT SeuZliaT qarTvel partniorebs gauziaron maRalteqnologiuri finansuri produqtebiT
sargeblobis mdidari gamocdileba, agreTve xeli Seuwyon energiis sxvadasxva zomis, kerZo da damoukidebeli
mwarmoeblis Zlieri seqtoris Seqmnas, vinaidan saqarTvelos hidroeleqtroenergetikuli potenciali kvlav
metwilad gamouyenebeli rCeba.
cxadia, ufro mniSvnelovania, xeli Seewyos samrewvelo kompaniebis aqciebSi komerciuli bankebis inves-
tirebas, uSualod an sainvesticio fondebis meSveobiT, rogoris Seqmnasac, sxva da sxva etapze, araerTi
qarTuli banki anonsirebda.
am institutebs aucileblad unda hqondeT droTa ganmavlovaSi aRniSnuli investiciebidan `gasvlis~
saSualeba adgilobriv safondo birJaze samrewvelo aqciebis sajaro kotirebis gziT. garkveuli rolis
Sesruleba SeuZliaT ucxour bankebsac. saukeTeso gamosavali iqneboda maTi da Zlieri adgilobrivi insti-
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
29
tuciuri investorebis kombinacia. am TvalsazrisiT seriozul SeSfoTebas iwvevs mzardi mimdinare angariSis
deficiti, romelic pirdapir aris dakavSirebuli samomxmareblo Sesyidvebis bumTan da kerZo danazogebis
Semcireba (saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis monacemebiT, kerZo danazogebi 2005 wels mSp-is 13,8%-dan 2007
wels 6,3%-mde Semcirda).
aqedan gamomdinare, saukeTeso saerTaSoriso standartebis gaTvaliswinebiT rac SeiZleba swrafad unda Se-
muSavdes grZelvadiani kerZo dagrovebis savaldebulo sistema. am mxriv gansakuTrebiT sainteresoa Ciles sa-
pensio fondebis sistema. danazogebis mobilizaciis amgvari sistemis gareSe, saqarTvelom SeiZleba saxifaTo
makroekonomikur sivrceSi Seabijos, gansakuTrebiT Tu pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi, romlebiTac aqamde
mimdinare angariSis deficiti finansdeboda, momavalSic iseve Semcirdeba, rogorc amJamad _ postsaomari saqar-
Tvelos viTarebaSi.
17. daskvnebi
rogorc saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis 2006-2008 wlis dinamikasa da maxasiaTeblebze dakvirvebam gamoa-
vlina, qveynis eqsporti-importi mudmiv koreqtirebas importis poziciis sasargeblod ganicdis.
savaWro deficitis ganuxreli zrda bolo wlebis ganmavlobaSi sul ufro masStaburi gaxda da mniSvne-
lovnad gaizarda qveynis importze damokidebulebis xarisxi, ramac ara mxolod saeqsporto, aramed importis
Canacvlebis perspeqtivis mqone adgilobrivi seqtorebic sagrZnoblad daasusta.
savaWro saldos gauareseba, rogorc dakvirvebam cxadyo, ar aris mxolod romelime erTi romelime kon-
kretuli faqtoriT gamowveuli Sedegi. Tavisi SinaarsiT es mravalkomponentiani, kompleqsuri procesia,
romelSic TviTeul gamomwvev faqtors sakuTari mniSvneloba da xvedriTi wili aqvs.
importis gazrdas, erTis mxriv, savaWro tarifebis ganulebis tendenciam Seuwyo xeli, rac TavisTavad ar
aris calsaxad Sesafasebeli procesi. erTi mxriv, aman savaWro procedurebis da vadebis Semcireba gamoiwvia,
rac udavod mxolod misasalmebeli faqtia. amasTan, importi gaiafda da saimporto operaciebis warmoebac
daCqarda.
Tumca, imavdroulad isic faqtia, rom amis Sedegad kidev ufro mZafri konkurenciis pirobebSi aRmoCnd-
nen rogorc adgilobriv, aseve saeqsporto bazrebze orientirebuli qarTuli sameurneo subieqtebi, romel-
Ta solidurma nawilma am konkurencias saTanadod veRar gauZlo da sabazro niSa an Seumcirda, an sulac
daekarga.
anu is riski, rom sabaJo tarifebis politika adgilobrivi warmoebis SesaZleblobebs amcirebs da impor-
tuli produqciiT bazris sruli gajerebis albaTobas kidev ufro mets xdis, saqarTveloSi praqtikuald
realizda. imavdroulad, naklebad imuSava am Canafiqris meore mosalodnelma efeqtma, romlis mixedviTac
sabaJo tarifebis ganulebas qveyanaSi teqnologiebis importi unda waexalisebina da, saboloo angariSiT,
swored saeqsporto piziciebi gaeZlierebina. es Sedegi dRes naklebad TvalsaCinoa.
imavdroulad, saeqsporto SesaZleblobebs ukanasknel or-sam weliwadSi sagrZnoblad vnebda jer erovnu-
li valutis kursis Seuqcevadi da mkveTri gamyarebis tendencia, rac eqsports aZvirebda da mis arsebul Tu
potenciur resurss amcirebda, imports ki, piriqiT, aiafebda da misi moculoba izrdeboda. am TvalsazrisiT,
qveynis saeqsporto SesaZleblobebi ukanaskneli sami wlis ganmavlobaSi seriozul permanentul dartymebs
ganicdida.
rac Sexeba 2008 wlis noemberSi momxdar erovnuli valutis mkveTr devalvacias, am faqts qveynis savaWro
politikaze, eqsport-importis struqturaze da eqsportis waxalisebaze pozitiuri gavlena aseve ar moux-
denia ramdenime garemoebis gamo: jer erTi, postsaomari viTarebis da globaluri finansuri krizisis gamo
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
30
qarTuli eqsportis SesaZleblobebi isidac Semcirebuli iyo da valutis kursis cvlilebas misTvis dadebiTi
biZgi ar miucia.
garda amisa, erovnuli valutis gacvliT kursTan dakavSirebiT warmoqmnili arastabiluri viTareba da
SesaZlo morigi koreqciis molodini aseve negatiurad aisaxa savaWro politikaze, vinaidan SeuZlebeli xdeba
savaWro politikis da operaciebis grZelvadiani dagegmareba da ganxorcieleba.
sxva met-naklebad mniSvnelovan faqtorebTan erTad (qarTuli saeqsporto potencialis simwire, qarTuli
kompaniebis naklebi finansuri mdgradoba da ucxour analogebTan SedarebiT gacilebiT susti poziciebi, ar-
sebul bazrebze adgilis SenarCunebis da gasaRebis axal bazrebze SeRwevis sirTuleebi da xarjianoba da a.S.),
es problemebi Sedegad iwvevs imas, rom xdeba ara eqsportis mateba da importis Canacvleba, aramed importis
gaZliereba, rac oficialuri statistikitac aris dadasturebuli da tendencia TvalsaCinoa _ qarTuli
eqsporti, rac dro gadis, sul ufro da ufro metad eqceva importis CrdilSi.
arsebuli problema kidev ufro metad mniSvnelovania imiT, rom uSualo kavSirSia siRaribis daZlevis
problematikasTan. importis poziciebis aseTi gaZliereba sirTules uqmnis ara mxolod adgilobrivi kom-
paniebis finansur Tu instituciur mdgradobas da Semdgom ganviTarebas, aramed SeuZlebels xdis arsebuli
samuSao adgilebis SenarCunebas da, miT ufro, axali adgilebis generirebas.
es Tanabrad exeba rogorc qveynis Sida moTxovnilebebze, aseve saeqsporto mimarTulebebze orientire-
bul seqtorebs da kompaniebs. rogorc adgilobriv bazarze fokusirebuli momsaxureba da saqoneli, aseve
saeqsporto potenciali yvelaze metad iqmneba im sferoebSi, sadac mosaxleobis dasaqmeba didia.
amdenad, qveynis eqsport-importis balansis konfiguraciis mkveTri cvlileba savaWro deficitis zrdis
TvalsazrisiT saqarTvelos ekonomikis grZelvadiani problemaa, romelsac negatiuri Sedegebi SeiZleba
mohyves. aqedan gamomdinare, misi safuZvliani analizi da Sesabamisi prevenciuli qmedebebis aucilebloba
aSkaraa.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
31
18. rekomendaciebi
imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom saqarTvelos bazris moculoba fizikurad aris limitirebuli, qarTuli kompa-
niebis meti mdgradobis, savaWro deficitis Semcirebisa da dasaqmebis problemis met-naklebad mosagvareblad
aucilebelia rogorc eqsportis xelSewyobis, aseve importis Canacvlebis RonisZiebebis ganxorcieleba.
imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom mTeli es problematika sakmaod mravalwaxnagovani da bevrSriania, aucilebe-
lia aqtivobebis gaaqtiureba sakmaod bevri mimarTulebiT, ramac sabolood arsebuli viTarebis Semsubuqeba
da Tvisebrivad axali savaWro da siRaribesTan brZolis politikis SemuSaveba da ganxorcieleba.
am mxriv sasurvelia gadawyvetilebaTa mTeli wyebis miReba, romelic qarTul prodyqcias ufro metad
konkurentunarians da warmoebis mxriv stimulirebuls gaxdis.
ufro konkretuli rekomendaciebidan aucileblad gamosayofia Semdegi sasurveli aqtivobebi:
yovlismomcveli kvleva da im dargebis gamokveTa da mxardaWera, romelTac saSualo da grZelvadian
perspeqtivaSi rogorc eqsportis gazrdis, aseve importis Canacvlebis realuri perspeqtiva gaaCniaT;
mwvane derefnis~ da erTi fanjris principis~ realurad da srulfasovnad amoqmedeba savaWro brun-
vis gazrdis da Sesabamisi sabaJo da sxva administraciuli procedurebis rogorc raodenobrivi, aseve
vadebis Semcirebis kuTxiT;
im ucxouri kompaniebis moZieba da mozidva, vinc dainteresebuli iqneba saqarTveloSi produqciis
warmoebiT da GSP+-is da sxva saxelmwifoebTan arsebuli SeRavaTiani reJimebiT sargeblobiT da saeqs-
porto bazrebze gataniT;
`sursaTis uvneblobis Sesaxeb~ kanonis SeCerebuli muxlebis dauyovnebliv amoqmedeba., raTa qarTul
sawarmoebSi gamoSvebuli produqcia Seesabamebodes saerTaSoriso standartebs da gauCndes saeqspor-
to potenciali;
qarTul kompaniebSi HACCP-is standartis danergva, rac sawarmoSi, fitosanitaruli da higienuri
normebis dacvas gulisxmobs da saeqsporto produqciis warmoebis aucilebeli pirobaa;
axal sainvestitico proeqtebze zomieri da gamarTlebuli SeRavaTebis an mxardaWeris reJimebis da-
wesebis sqemis (sagadasaxado ardadegebi, saxelmwifo qonebis gadacema) SemuSaveba da danergva;
Sromis kodeqsis gadaxedva, daqiravebulis uflebebis ufro metad dacvis da damqiravebel-daqirave-
buls Soris darRveuli disbalansis aRsadgenad;
statistikis samsaxuris srulyofili da Zireuli reforma, romelic Sesabamis monacemebs ufro
srulyofils da sandos gaxdis da SeaZlebels gaxdis rogorc realuri suraTis gamokveTas, aseve
ufro zust prognozirebas;
kerZo sapensio fondebis sistemis Camoyalibebis daCqareba da xelSewyoba, raTa Sesabamis kompaniebs
mieceT Sansi, meti fuli moizidon da mimarTon qveynis ekonomikaSi.
saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi
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SeniSvnebi