SEB Commodities Monthly April 2010

8/9/2019 SEB Commodities Monthly April 2010

1/20

April 9, 2010

Commodity Research: Bjarne Schieldrop (Head) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30, Filip [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47

Commodities Monthly

Nickel higher on demand Gold steady on fear=

General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M The UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Index advanced a marginal

0.2% in March, but differences between sectors were large Industrial metals was the strongest sector (+8.8%) and

agriculturals the weakest (-9.2%)

The global economic recovery continued, supporting demand forcommodities A potential Chinese monetary tightening is an overhanging threat

to the commodity market

Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Brent crude traded around $80/b in March, i.e. in the upper part of

OPECs desired $70-80/b range Brent crude broke above $85/b in early April, OPEC production

likely to be increased if this price level is maintained The 156:th ordinary OPEC meeting was concluded without quota

changes or other surprises There is a temporary upside risk in the oil market heading into the

US driving season as large quantities of crude oil are tied up in

financial dealsIndustrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Very bullish sector sentiment in March, falling LME stocks and

high cancelled warrants Nickel up 18.3% on strong stainless steel production The start of this years iron ore price negotiations have resulted in

doubled prices and quarterly contracts replacing yearly contracts

Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Continued strength in the industrial precious metals (silver,

platinum, palladium) on industrial recovery and investor demand In dollar terms, gold moved sideways in March, torn between

fluctuating European sovereign debt fear and dollar strength Gold closed at a new record level in euro terms at the beginning

of the April, 863.35/ozt

Jewellery demand is picking up as the first Indian weddingseason of the year starts

Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Corn, wheat and soybeans traded lower in March on a stream of

bearish USDA reports, good South American crop prospects andimproving Midwest planting conditions

Sugar kept falling heavily as crop prospects kept improving andbuyers awaited lower prices

Several of the soft commodities bottomed out in March andembarked on a new uptrend

Upside risk in conjunction with US planting season remains butconditions are improving

Arrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specific period.

N

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices(price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100)=

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

jan-09

feb-09

mar-09

apr-09

maj-09

jun-09

jul-09

aug-09

sep-09

okt-09

nov-09

dec-09

jan-10

feb-10

mar-10

apr-10

Industrial Metals

Precious Metals

Energy

Agriculture

Performance overview(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)

-16-14-12-10

-8-6-4-20246

810

Equities

Commodities

Energy

Industrial

metals

Precious

metals

Agriculture

YTD (%) MoM (%)

Winners & Losers last month(closing prices, %)=

-35-30-25-20-15-10-505

10152025

30

Sugar

Power,Nordic

USNaturalGas

Wheat

Corn

Cotton

EmissionRights(EUA)

Soybeans

Lead

Gold

Cocoa

Power,Continental

WTI

Coffe,

Arabica

Silver

Platinum

Brent

USHeatingOil

Tin

Zinc

Copper

Aluminium

Palladium

USGasoline

Nickel

Steel,Mediterranean

c

=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==


2/20


3/20

SEB Commodity Research

ENERGY==

_= = = SKNB= = ~= AUOKTML=~= ~= ~= ~= AUML= = j~K=m= = = = = =~I= = rp= = ~I=

~= ~= I= ~= == ^~= ~= ~= ~= ~=~==d==~=~=~=K=f=~I===~=~=== ~= ~= = = =~=~=~=~===K==l= j~= NT= = NRSW= ~= lmb`== ~= = = s~K= ^= I==~===~===~~=~=~== == =

= = ~= = = = = =~K=`~= =~== =~= ~= = RSB= = c~K= eI= =~~= O= L= = = =~= = = = ~= =~~= ~= ~= = =~~K=q= ~~= = = == = = ~= = ~=~= = NMeOK= f= ~I= lmb = ~= ~=~= ~= ~~= = S= LK=t========~I== p~= ^~~= = = ~= ~= =

= == ATMJUML=~= ~= = ~== = = = ~= = =~=~=K= f~=~= ~=~==~=AURL=~===~==~==~K=t=~===~= =ATMJUML=~= = ~~= ===~===~=~=~K==q=f~~=b=^=Efb^F==~= = = ~= TM= L= = == OMMV= E= URKM= LF= ~= OMNM= E= USKS=LF===~=l=j~=o=EljoFK=q= = ~= = = = Jlbà=~K=q===~==~I== rp= a~= = b= EalbF= ~=lmbÌ= ~= = = OMNM= ~=~= = =OTM=L= E= URKRN=LF=~=NMM=L=E=URKOQ=LF=K=q=fb^= = = MKV= L= = =c~= E= USKS= LFI= = lmb`== = ~= NQ= = K= lbà===~==PQKQ===g~~=E= OTMP= F= ~= ~~= = = ~=~= ~= = ~= K= p= = = ===~=~=~==

=~==OMNMI=~=~=~==~I=KK=====~====

===~I====~=~=~======~K=p==~=== ~= ~= = RO= = ~= = = =c~= K= RV= = ~= = ~K=`== ~= = NO== =TQ====~=K==rp= = = = = = NOKT= = =j~=====~===~K=d~====TKN==~=~= = TKO= I= = = ~~=~K= o= ~= == ~~=~~= K= q= ~= ===~=~====~=I=KK=~==~==~=~==~==K=

=q=~=~===~=~= = = = j= ~==~=~===~K=o~====~========~===K=q=f~~=~=k~==~===~K==_= =~== = =~= ~=AUMLK= f= = = ~= ~= ~=~= I= ~= ~= = = == = = = ~= ~=

==~=K= =~====~~=EfpjI=kcmF===rp=~==== ^=~~= == _= ~=AURL====~==~=~=~==rp=K==i=====~===~==== ~= = K= l= =I==~~===~=~~=~=====~= ~=~= ==K=l==~==`~===K=p~===~==

= = K= b~= == ~= = ~= ~= K= l=~= ~= = ~= _= = = == = = = ~= ~= = ATMJUML= = ~= = ~= ~~= = =ATRL= = OMNMK= eI= = = ~=~= = = = = == ~== = = ~I==~=~=====~I=~=== ~= = K= p= ~== = = = ~= = = = ~~=~= = = ~= ~= ~= ~= = ~=~= = = ~~= = ~= =~~= = = = ~= ~~= = =K= o= ~=~= = ~=

O


4/20


=~~~==~===^~=~===~= ~= = ===~=ANMML=~K==q== == =rp=~~=~= == = == =j~I= = =

= = = = ~= OMB= K=f~= = = = ~= ~== = ~= = =~I==~=~==~=~~==~=~=====~==~=~=~==~===~~=~K=`==~==~===rp=~=~=I====~== ~= = = = = = ~= ===K=q=~~=~==~====~===~==K=

=q~=~~= E^=TFW=q== ~=~= ~= = = K= q= = =~=AUUJVMLK==c

==

q=_~=a=f=~==~=PMB==~=~===PRTQ====~==j~=~= ~= = = ^~~= = = = `~=I=~=~==~==`=k=v~=~K=a=j~I====

= ~= = ~= = = P=~= = = = Es~I= _em= ~= o=qF= ~= = ~= ~= E=~= = `~FK= ^= = ~=~==~===~===~=~= ~==^=NI=`==~= == ~= = =~= =====~K=^========~===~=~===VKRBI==~=OVVUK===

Freight Indices(BFX, weekly closing, January 2002 = 100)=

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450500

Baltic Dry Index (left axis)

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (right axis)

Baltic Clean Tanker Index (right axis)

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==

q=~=~=~===~=~=~==~===== j~K= eI= = _~= a= q~=f= ~~= = ~~= RKUBI= = ==~=VSQ===~=~===TKNB=~==~=TMUK=

=k=m

==

^======E=c~==j~FI= ~~= = =k=m=j~= = ~= ~K= q= ~=~= ~= = = = = ~=~= = ~= = K=p~I=p=~==~=~= ~= = = =K=j= ~~~== ~~= ~= = =~= = = = = = ~=

= = ~= = j~I= ====~~=bro=QMLjtK=`=URB===~=p=~=~~===~=K=^=~=I==~=== ~~=~=~== p= = ~~= = = = == = = j~K= p= = = j~=~~= bro= RTKMOLjt= E= bro=NNKVMLjt= K= c~FK= q= p= =~~= ~~= bro= RVKMQLjt= E= bro=PQKVRLjt=K=c~FK==

q= ~= = = = ~=~=~= = = = ~= = ~==j~K=t=~= = ==~~==~=NM=qt====== ~= = ~= I= = ~= OU=qtK= f= ~= = ~= k=~~I= ~= ~I= ~= ~= d~== = ~= = = k= == = j~K= j~~= = = ===~===bro=OLjtK=^== = = = j~I= nOJNM= ~= ~= bro=QNKTRLjt= E= bro= NPKURLjt= LF=~= `~JNN= ~= bro= PVKOMLjt= E= bro=OKVMLjt= LFK= q~= = ~=~=~===K==a===~==^I==~==~= ~= ==K=d= == = = = = ~~= = == = ~= = = = =~=~=======~=== bro= QRLjtK= q= = = ~=====~==~============~=~===K=

P


5/20


=

System and Swedish spot prices(Nord Pool, weekly average)=

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

2009-W01

2009-W06

2009-W11

2009-W16

2009-W21

2009-W26

2009-W31

2009-W36

2009-W41

2009-W46

2009-W51

2010-W03

2010-W08

2010-W13

System price

Swedish price

`~=W=k=mI=pb_=`=o~==

`lO

==

a= j~I= = = ~= b~== ~I= br^= a= OMNMI= ~==NOKRVL=~=NPKSML=~==NKPB== L= ~= ANOKUPLK= ^= ~= ~= =b~==~~==OMMV===br=b=q~=p=~=~==^=NK=q=~~==~=L=====NNB====K=q=~=~=== = = ~= ~= ~~= = =~= ~= = = ~= ~~= ~=~K=eI==~==~I=~=

=~====~K=^=== ~= = = ~I== ~= = ~= ~= = =~= = ~~I= = = ~= d~== ~= EOMNNF= ~= QKSB= = == = ^K= q= br^= aJNM= == = ~I=~= RKNB=~= ~= ~=NPKRL= =~=^I= ====~===c~=ENQKMQLFK=p=b=== = = ~= = == = = ~= = = I= ====rp===~K==f==rp====~====~== ~= = = = == = = ~= = = ~=K= i~= g~I= ~= = = rp=b~=m=^=Ebm^FI=== = = = ~= ~= ~===~=`lO====~=~==~=K=p=~=== = = ~= = =~= ~= = = ~= = ==K=e=~======~= ~= = = = =

= = ~= = l~~= = K= q== ~= = ~= == = =

~= ~= = ~= = = ~= ~= =~= ~= ~== bm K= ^= ~I= =~= = bm^= ~= = ~=~= = = ~= ~= = = rp=p=`====K===

q= t= = ~= = = ~= =~= ~= = = == ~=~~==~K=l~~==~= = = = t~= PN= j~=~= ~= = ~= = ~= ~=~= = = = = ~= ~= = =^~= ~= ^~~= ~= K= q=~= ~= ~= = ^= ^=c= _~I= = = ~~= == ~K= q= = = ~== = ~= = ~I= ~== ~= = = ~K=^== rp=

=~======== ^= OOI= = = = = = ~== = = = = =~K==t==b~====== ~~= ~= = OMOMI= ~= =b~= = = = = =~===~=~===rpI=====~=~===br^===K=

Q


6/20


CRUDE OIL=

Crude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)=

102030405060708090

100110120130

140150

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

NYMEX WTI

ICE Brent

=

US crude oil stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

j f m a m j j a s o n d

2005-2009 avg.

2009

2010

OIL PRODUCTS=Gasoline and heating oil prices(NYMEX, /gal, front month, weekly closing)=

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

NYMEX Gasoline

NYMEX Heating oil

=

Gasoline and distillate stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=

110

120

130140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

j f m a m j j a s o n d

Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.

Gasoline 2010

Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.

Distillate fuel oil 2010

=

POWER=

Nordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Continental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=

20253035404550556065707580859095

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

R


7/20


CO2 NATURAL GAS=

EUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 10, weekly closing)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

US natural gas prices(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=

0123456789

101112

131415

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

==

FUTURES CURVES=WTI(NYMEX, $/b)=

7980

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

=

Brent(ICE, $/b)=

7778

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

=

Gasoline(NYMEX, /gal)=

200

205

210

215

220

225

230

235

240

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

=

US natural gas(NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

maj-10

sep-10

jan-11

maj-11

sep-11

jan-12

maj-12

sep-12

jan-13

maj-13

sep-13

jan-14

maj-14

sep-14

jan-15

maj-15

sep-15

jan-16

maj-16

sep-16

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

S


8/20


=INDUSTRIAL METALS==

^=

q= ~= ~= ~= ~= ~= == =j~I= =r_p= _= `j f======UKUB==~=~==OM==K=q=~===~=~=

= EHNUKPBFI= = = ~=EHVKNBFI== EHUKPBFI==EHUKOBF=~==EHTKUBFK= q= = ~= = ~= = ~=~= EJNKMBFK= p= = ~= == ~= ijb= = ~= ~= = ~== = ~= ~= ~~=~=K=

=

^= = = rpa= ONPMJOOVVL== j~I= = = = = ~= rpa=OOVVLK= ijb= = = = =~= ~I= = = ~= = =g=~=~I==~=~~=~=~=~===ESKNB==ijb====~= ~= =j~FK= q= ~= ~= == = = = = ~= =~= = KK= ~= = ~= K=_= ~= = ~= = =====K=eI=~=~== = ~= = = ~=K= q~= ~~= E^= TFW=^= ~= = = = =

= ~= = = I= = ======rpa=OQMML=K=

=`= = = = = = == = ~= = = ~=~===~===~K=eI==~== = =~= ~==~=

==~======~~K=q= ~=~= ==== ~==~=`==~=K=p~=~== ~= I= KK= = f~= =~I= = = ~= = ~= ~=~==fjc===~=K=q==~=~=====~K=

=

`=

=

`= = = rpa= TOUUJTUOSL= =j~I= = = = = ~= rpa=TTSULK= ijb= = ~= = ~= = == = j~= ~= ~= = = ~= ~== E= TB= = j~FK= `~=~~= ~= = = ~= ~= = ~=~=~~=EPKSB==ijb====~=

~==j~FK=q==~==== = ~= = = ~= =~= K= l= = = ~I= =`= ~= ~= ~= = ~= == = = = ~= == = OMNMK= eI= = == = ~= ~= ~= = =OMNMK=`~===~====~~===~~===KK===~=~=~=~~= ~= ~= ~K= q~=~~= E^= TFW= `= ~= = =

=~====TUKSB=c=~==~==~==~~=OMMU=K=

=q= ~= = = = = ~=~=~==~=====~= VMB= = ~= ~= = = =

= = ~= ~= ~= ~=~= ~= = ~K= s~= ~~= =~= = VTB= = = ~= = = == ~= = ~= = = ~= == = ~= = = = ~= =ARTL==ANOOKOL==NMnOK=q=~===~= = = = QM= ~= = ~~=~= = ~= = ~= K=`=~=~=~=====~= ~= ~= = = = = ====~=~=====~==~=~K==^= = = = = ~= = == = = ~= = = =~= = = ~~= = K= c~== ~= = ~= ~~= == ~= = = ~= == = ~= ~K= j= ~=~===~=====~= = = = K= t= = =~=~==~=~==~=~== = = ~= = ~=~= ~K= f= = ~= =====~K=

=

k=

=

k= = = rpa= ONOSPJOQVTOL= =j~I= = = = = ~= rpa=OQVTOLK= ijb= = ~= = = ~======c~=E=QB= = j~F= ~= ~= ~~= ~==EOKTB==ijb====~=~==j~FK=k=~=~===== ~= = = = ~= == =~== = = == ==~K= f= ~= ~= = = K=

T


9/20


k= = = = EkmfF= ~~= == = = ~= = ~= =~= = = = K=q~=~~= E^=TFW=k= == ~= =~==~======== c= K= m= ~=rpa= ORNTRL= =

===rpa=PMPMMLK==

w=

=

w= = = rpa= ONVMJOPSNL= =j~I= = = = = ~= rpa=OPROLK= ijb= = ~= ~== j~= = ~= ~~= ~== = ~= = = = EOKTB= = ijb====~=~==j~FK=q==~====K=a~==~=~= = = I= KK= ~= `=

= ~= ~= = ~= =~K=q=~=======~===~==~~~=== = ~= = ~K= q~=~~=E^=TFW=q=~=g~~===~====~=~====~=~=~~=====RMB=c=~=rpa=OUORLK==

p=

=

ijb=j~~====rpa=

QQSJRVPL==j~I=====~=rpa= RTPLK= ijb= = = = OMB= =j~K= ijb=c~= b~=~= ~= = =I= = = = ~~= = == = = = ijb= ~= = g= OUK=d~= ~= = = = = ===~==OMMVK=eI==MVeO= = ~= = = = ~=~= ~K= f= c~I= ~= == ~= = = OQB= L= = = = UMB=~~=~K=m=~=~==~=~~K=o=~===~=====~=K==

U


10/20


ALUMINIUM=

Aluminium price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Aluminium stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

SHFE

COMEX

LME

==

COPPER=Copper price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Copper stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

SHFE

COMEX

LME

NICKEL=

Nickel price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Nickel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

V


11/20


ZINC=

Zinc price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Zinc stocks(LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

SHFE

LME

=

LEAD=Lead price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Lead stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

200000

225000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

TIN=

Tin price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

24000

27000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Tin stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

NM


12/20


STEEL=

Steel price(LME Mediterranean, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

jan-09

mar-09

maj-09

jul-09

sep-09

nov-09

jan-10

mar-10

=

Steel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

4000045000

50000

55000

jul-08

sep-08

nov-08

jan-09

mar-09

maj-09

jul-09

sep-09

nov-09

jan-10

mar-10

=

FUTURES CURVES=

Aluminium(LME, $/t)=

205021002150

2200225023002350240024502500255026002650

apr-10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-11

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

=

Copper(LME, $/t)=

6900

7000

7100

7200

7300

7400

7500

7600

7700

7800

7900

apr-10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-11

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

==

Nickel(LME, $/t)=

19500200002050021000215002200022500

2300023500240002450025000

apr-10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-11

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

=

Zinc(LME, $/t)=

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

2450

apr-10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-11

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~

NN


13/20


=PRECIOUS METALS==

m= ~= ~= ~= = == ~= =j~=~= I= ~~=~= ~= ~= ~= ~= ~== = = ~= = = K= q=

= = ~= ~~= EHNNKMBF==~=~==~=~=~=~= EHSKRB= ~= HSKOB= FK= dI====~I==MKRBK=q=~=== = = ~= ~= = b~====~=~=d===~~K=q= =~== === = ~= = ~= ~=~=~K=d== ~= ~= = ===b======^I=USPKPRLK==

f~= = ~= ~~= ====~~= ~==~= ~K=a~== = = ~= = = j~= ~= = ~====f~==~===~K= d= bqc= ~= = ~= ~=~~I= KK= = pmao= = = =~=~==~==ENNPM=FK=

NO

=^= = ~= = = = = t=d=`=Etd`FI=`==~=== === = =~= =~= = ~= = ~K=

p= = = = = = = == ~= = = = ~= = ~==~=K=q=td`=~==~==~= = = ~= =~=~= = NVSQ= = = ~=~= = = ~= ~= ~= ~= =====~==OMMVI=~==~=== = = ~= = OMNM= = =~= ===K==d=~= = = = = = ~==~==~=====~=~=======ANNMMLK=^= = ~= = = = ~=

= = = = = = ~~I= = === = ~I= = = = === = ~= K= _= = = == ANNMML= ~~= = = ~= = ===~K==m~~=~=~==~~== ~== bqc= = = = = K=q= ~= = ~= ~= == = = = = ~=~= ~I= KK= = = ~~== = = ~= K= m~~= =

=~======= = =~= ~~= = ~==

I== = = = = ==rp=~= `~K= t= = ~= = = =~= ~= ~~= = = ======p=^~=Eg=NN==g=NN==~FK=q====== ~~= ~= == =~=~====~===~= = K= ^= ~= = ======~==b=~= = ~= ~= = = = ~== ~= ~= ~= = = ~=~=~I== ==~~=~=~=K=m=~=~=== == = ~~=~=~~K=p=^~==~====== ~= ~= ~= ~= = =

~~K==q~=~~I==E^=TFW=d==== ~= = ~= ~= = ~====OMMV=K=q============~=~=rpa=NNSNLK==

Gold and selected currencies vs. USD

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB

YTD (%) MoM (%)

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==


14/20


GOLD=

Gold price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Gold to oil & gold to LME Index ratios(front month, weekly closing)=

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7Gold to oil ratio (left axis)

Gold to LME Index ratio (right axis)

=

SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=

Silver price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

2

46

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Platinum and palladium prices(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

100

300

500

700

900

1100

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

300

550

800

1050

1300

1550

1800

2050

2300

Palladium (left axis)

Platinum (right axis)

==

FUTURES CURVES=

Gold(COMEX, $/ozt)=

1075

1100

1125

1150

1175

1200

1225

1250

1275

apr-10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-11

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

jul-14

okt-14

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

=

Silver(COMEX, $/ozt)

16,25

16,50

16,75

17,00

17,25

17,50

17,75

18,00

18,25

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

aug-14

nov-14

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

NP


15/20


AGRICULTURE=

q=~====~~===j~=~=~=K=l==~=I==~=~====EJNNB=~=JNPB=F==~=~=~=~=

= = EJOBFK= d= p= ^~== = = = ~= ~= ~== ~= = = rp= j=K= _~= rp= = ~=~=~=~===~=~~=~==~=====K=f===~== =~=~== = = I= ~= ~= ~===~===K==q= ~= rpa = m=m~= =~=~==~=j~K=q===~==

~= = ~= USMMM= rp= ~=~~= = = = = = =j~= = =~= = = = ~K=q= = =~= = ~= ~~=EHNB=K=OMMVFI===~==~~== NVQT= EHPB= K= OMMVF= ~= = ~=~= ~~= = NVTM= EJVB= K= OMMVFK= f== = = = ~=I= =rp=~= ==~= ~=~K=`~===~=~=Ej~=NFI== = ~= = = = = == = EHNNBFI= ~= = ~= ~=

= EJOBF= ~= ~= = = = ~==PMBK=q===== = = = = ~= = = ~== ~= = ~= ~= ~K= q====~===~====~==~~=rp=~=~K= `= ~= = = ^= ~=~= ~= = j~K= q= = ~= = == ==== ===~=~=~==~====~=~== = ~= ~= =~=~I====K=q= ~= = = = ~= = =

==~I====~==~= = = = K= q=====~=====~== = = ~= == = ~= ~= ~= ~= = ~== == = = ~= =K==p~== ~= ~= =~= QMB= == OV= ~= = ~= = ~K= q= ~== = = =~= = == ~= = = = _~~=

K= f~= = ~= ~= ~==~=~=~=~====

= = ~= = = ~= = =K=^==~==~===~==~= ~= ~= = ~= ~~K= _~~=~= f~= = ~= = ===~====~~K===`

==

`= = = PQRJPUSL= = j~I== = = = ~= PQRLK= f= =j~= = = = rpa^= t=^~= p= ~= a~= b~=Et^pabF= ~= = ~= ==RKUS==I=~====^~=K=b===~== = = SKNN= I= ~= ~= ~=

====~K=b====~====~=~==== == =~= ~= == ~~= rp= ~I= ~=~==~=~====rp=~== ~= ~= ~= ~K= q~= ~~=E^=TFW=`=~==~==~=~=== == ~= ~= ~= ~I=PMMJPOML===~K==

t~=

=

t~= = =QSQJROUL= =j~I== = = = ~= QSQLK= q=t^pab= = = MKRT= = K=b===~=~==MKVN=K=q=~= ~= ~= = = ===I====OO=~===rp= ~= = = = = ~= ~K= ^=~= ~= = = = ~= === = = ~= ~=K=q~=~~=E^=TFW =t~========MVnP==~=QORLK==

p~ ==

p~= = = VORJVTQL= =j~I= = = = = ~= VQNLK=p~==~==MKUV=====t^pabI======= MKVQ=K=o=^~= ~= _~~=~=~=K=b=~======rp==p=^~K=p~== = = ^~= = == = ~= = = j~K= q~=~~=E^=TFW=p~=~=~==~==~= = ~= ~= ~= = = = ~=K=

NQ


16/20


=

CORN=

Corn price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Corn ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

mt

days of supply

==

WHEAT=

Wheat price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

200300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Wheat ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

mt

days of supply

SOYBEANS=

Soybean price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Soybean ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

20

40

60

80

100

120

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

mt

days of supply

==

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa^=

NR


17/20


=

SUGAR COFFEE=

Sugar price(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Coffee price (Arabica)(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

==

=FUTURES CURVES=

Corn(CBOT, /bu)=

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

Wheat(CBOT, /bu)=

450

500

550

600

650

700

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

=

Soybeans(CBOT, /bu)=

910

920

930

940

950

960

970

980

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

=

Sugar(CBOT, /lb)=

15

17

19

21

23

25

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

10-02-26

10-03-24

10-03-31

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa^=

NS


18/20


=

COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS==

Current Date Previous Date NextEUROZONE

Industrial production (%, YoY) 1,0 2010-01-31 -4,0 2009-12-31 2010-04-14

Industrial production (%, MoM) 1,5 2010-01-31 0,6 2009-12-31 2010-04-14

Capacity utilization (%, sa) 72,0 2010-03-31 71,0 2009-12-31

Manufacturing PMI 56,6 2010-03-31 54,2 2010-02-28 2010-04-21Real GDP (%, YoY) -2,1 2009-12-31 -4,1 2009-09-30 2010-04-07

Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,1 2009-12-31 0,4 2009-09-30 2010-04-07

CPI (%, YoY) 0,9 2010-02-28 1,0 2010-01-31 2010-04-16

CPI (%, MoM) 0,3 2010-02-28 -0,8 2010-01-31 2010-04-16

Consumer confidence -17,0 2010-03-31 -17,0 2010-02-28 2010-04-22

USA

Industrial production (%, YoY) 1,7 2010-02-28 0,8 2010-01-31

Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,1 2010-02-28 0,9 2010-01-31 2010-04-15

Capacity utilization (%) 72,7 2010-02-28 72,5 2010-01-31 2010-04-15

Manufacturing PMI 59,6 2010-03-31 56,5 2010-02-28 2010-05-03

Real GDP (%, YoY) 0,1 2009-12-31 -2,6 2009-09-30

Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 5,6 2009-12-31 2,2 2009-09-30 2010-04-30

CPI (%, MoM) 2,1 2010-02-28 2,6 2010-01-31 2010-04-14

CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,0 2010-02-28 0,2 2010-01-31 2010-04-14

OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,3 2010-01-31 101,4 2009-12-31

Consumer confidence (Michigan) 73,6 2010-03-31 73,6 2010-02-28 2010-04-16

Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, 000) 162 2010-03-31 -14 2010-02-28 2010-05-07

JAPAN

Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 31,3 2010-02-28 18,5 2010-01-31 2010-04-15

Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) -0,9 2010-02-28 2,7 2010-01-31 2010-04-15

Capacity utilization (%, sa) 87,6 2010-01-31 84,3 2009-12-31


Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) -1,0 2009-12-31 -5,2 2009-09-30

Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,9 2009-12-31 -0,1 2009-09-30 2010-05-20

CPI (%, YoY) -1,8 2010-03-31 -1,8 2010-02-28 2010-04-30

CPI (%, MoM) -0,1 2010-02-28 -0,2 2010-01-31


Consumer confidence 40,0 2010-02-28 39,4 2010-01-31 2010-04-19

CHINA

Industrial production (%, YoY) 12,8 2010-02-28 18,5 2009-12-31 2010-04-15


Real GDP (%, YoY) 10,7 2009-12-31 9,1 2009-09-30 2010-04-15

CPI (%, YoY) 2,7 2010-02-28 1,5 2010-01-31 2010-04-15


Consumer confidence 104,2 2010-02-28 104,7 2010-01-31

Bank lending (%, YoY) 29,3 2010-01-31 31,7 2009-12-31

Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 30,1 2009-12-31 33,4 2009-09-30

OTHER

OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 103,6 2010-01-31 102,8 2009-12-31

Global manufacturing PMI 56,7 2010-03-31 55,4 2010-02-28Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=

NT


19/20


=PERFORMANCE==

Monthlyclosing

YTD(%)

1 m(%)

1 q(%)

1 y(%)

5 y(%)

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1111,74 -5,5 0,1 -3,6 29,2 53,9

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1047,43 -5,5 0,1 -3,7 29,1 34,1UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1287,10 -5,0 0,2 -3,1 38,7 75,5UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1304,32 -3,9 1,4 -1,2 42,4 37,0

UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1156,54 3,4 8,8 5,0 83,2 101,5UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 1628,83 -0,3 0,7 2,0 23,2 156,8

UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1229,68 -15,9 -9,2 -14,6 5,4 66,3Baltic Dry Index 2998,00 -4,5 9,5 N/A 85,6 -35,3

Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 83,76 2,8 5,1 5,5 68,7 51,2Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 82,70 3,2 6,6 6,1 68,0 52,3Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2299,00 2,7 9,1 4,3 69,0 15,8Copper (LME, $/t) 7767,75 3,9 8,3 5,7 93,7 127,0

Nickel (LME, $/t) 24972,00 31,9 18,3 35,2 155,5 53,8Zinc (LME, $/t) 2351,75 -7,7 8,2 -7,2 81,4 73,2Steel (LME, Far East, $/t) 595,00 41,7 33,7 48,8 77,6 N/ASteel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 572,50 40,5 28,5 45,5 70,4 N/AGold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1113,30 -0,4 -0,5 1,6 20,7 159,7

Corn (CBOT, /bu) 345,00 -17,6 -8,7 -16,8 -14,8 62,0Wheat (CBOT, /bu) 450,50 -19,2 -11,1 -16,8 -15,4 36,1Soybeans (CBOT, /bu) 941,00 -10,3 -1,1 -9,5 -1,2 50,0

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

=

MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS==

Date Source

Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.govDepartment of Energy, US inventory data

Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.orgAmerican Petroleum Institute, US inventory data

April 13 www.oilmarketreport.comInternational Energy Agency, Oil Market Report

April 14 www.opec.orgOPEC, Oil Market Report

Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.govUS Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress

April 9 www.usda.govUS Department of Agriculture, WASDE/WAP April 22 www.igc.org.ukInternational Grains Council, Grain Market Report

October 14 www.opec.orgOPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

=

CONTACT LIST, SEB COMMODITIES==

Position E-mail Phone Mobile

Mikael Nordstrm Head of Commodities [email protected] +46 8 506 230 26 +46 70 293 00 12

RESEARCH

Bjarne Schieldrop Chief Analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30

Filip Petersson Commodity Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84

SALES

Arne Boberg Head of Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67

Charlotte Aleblad Corporate Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10Magnus Wallenbert Corporate Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 24 +46 76 213 33 40

Katarina Johnsson Corporate Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02

TRADING

Stefan Fastesson Head of Trading [email protected] +46 8 506 230 13 +46 73 850 13 30

Mats Forsell Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82

Mats Hedberg Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78

Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76

Christian Ekstrand Quantitative Analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research==

NU
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


20/20

=

a~=C=

`~===

=q= ~====~====pb_=j~=_~I=~===p~~~=b~=_~=^_=EF=Epb_FK===l=~======~====~=~===~==K=^=~=~====~=== = = ~= = = = = = ~K= eI= =~= = ~~I= = = I= = ~= = = = ===~~====~==~=======~=~~K=^==~=~=~==========~========~=~=====~K=q=====~=~=I=~===~=~===~=~===X======~I==~=~==~==~===~==~========K==pb_==~==~=~==pI=pI===~K=f== ~= = ~~= ~= ~= k= ~= = b~= o~= j~= ~=j~~=q~=c~=E~==~==Jb~=~=~F==~==~~=I==~=~=~==k^pa^n=ljuI=kvpb=bI=i=p=b~I=a=_I=p=b~I=q=~=

`JuK= pb_= = ~= ~= ~= = c~= = pX= = =~=~====~===c~~=p=^=== = = ~= = = = = rhI= ~= = = = == = ~= ~= = ~= = = = pb_= =~K====

pb_=j~=_~K=^==K====

============

pb_=`=j==~====q~===K=

Documents

SEB Commodities Monthly April 2010