SEB Commodities Monthly March 2010

8/14/2019 SEB Commodities Monthly March 2010

1/20

March 2, 2010

Commodity Research: Bjarne Schieldrop (Head) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30, Filip [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47

Commodities Monthly

Nordic hydro power deficit, a challenge for industrial recovery=

General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M The early 2010 commodity price slump ended in February with

the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price index rising 3.9% OECD leading indicators continued to improve in all key areas

except China and India Fears of Chinese monetary tightening eased after CPI rose less

than expected The USD is set to remain strong on EU sovereign debt worries

Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Brent continued to trade between $70-80/b in February IEA revised 2010 crude oil demand 170 kb/d higher to 86.5 mb/d The Iranian nuclear crisis escalated significantly in February

Sustained crude oil rallies above $80/b are unlikely due to ahealthy supply situation

Record high Nordic power spot prices on low temperatures incombination with nuclear power plant outages and a weak hydrobalance, prices are likely to remain high

A global cap & trade agreement on greenhouse gas emissionspost 2012 is becoming more and more unlikely

Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M The industrial metals sector was the strongest in February with

the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Price Index rising 5.9% LME warehouse inventories are currently at 5-year highs LME cancelled warrants are beginning to pick up, a positive sign

of end user demand The sector retains significant downside risk if OECD demand

does not materialise

Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M The IMF will sell 191.3 tonnes of gold on the open market The strong dollar environment is challenging for precious metals EU sovereign debt worries offer a substantial upside risk in gold

Greece has until March 16 to devise a plan to cut public spendingAgriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M The US Department of Agriculture expects wheat and soybean

production to decrease and corn production to be flat during the10/11 crop season while wheat and corn stocks are forecast tofall and soybeans stocks to rise

Sugar prices have fallen by around 20% although the biggestsugar deficit is expected in Q3

Cotton prices are at 23-month highs due to strong industrialdemand

Arrows indicate the expected price change during the period in question.

THE NEXT SEB COMMODITIES MONTHLY WILL BE RELEASED ONAPRIL 9 DUE TO EASTER HOLIDAYS

N=

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices(price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100)=

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

jan-0

9

feb

-09

mar-

09

apr-

09

ma

j-09

jun-0

9

jul-09

aug-0

9

sep-0

9

okt-09

nov-0

9

dec-0

9

jan-1

0

feb

-10

Industrial Metals

Precious Metals

Energy

Agriculture

Performance overview(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)

-6

-4

-2

0

24

6

Equities

Commodities

Energy

Industrial

metals

Precious

metals

Agriculture

YTD (%) MoM (%)

Winners & Losers last month(closing prices, %)=

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Sugar

Cocoa

USNaturalGas

Power,Continental

Coffe,

ArabicaTin

EmissionRights(EUA)

Silver

Platinum

Aluminium

Gold

Zinc

Soybeans

Palladium

Corn

USHeatingOil

Copper

Wheat

Lead

Steel,Mediterranean

Brent

USGasoline

WTI

Nickel

Power,Nordic

Cotton

c

=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==


2/20

SEB Commodity Research

GENERAL=

q= r_p= _= `j`f= m= f== = c~I= = == PKVB= K= _= = == ~=~= E= RKVBF=~= =

E= QKVBFK= m= ~= ~= ~~=~= E= PKNB= ~= NKOB= FK=q== ~= = = ~=I=~====~=~=~= ~= = = g~~= = ===~==~=TBK==q==~==~==== = ~= ~= = ~= = ~=`= ~= = I= =~~=d= = == ~==~= = rp= ~= = = ~=

~K=eI=====~=c~= = = mjf= ~~I=~=~=~===== d= ~= ~= ~= `=~= ~= = = = ~==~==K==Ì=d=~==j~=NS===~= ~= = = = K= `~I= = =~= = = = = I= == = ===== ~K=Î== = = ~= p~I= m~=

~=f~=~====~=dI==~=====~==~=bjr==~=~==~=~==~=======~=dK= f= ~= ~I= d= ~= ===~=I=~=~=~== = ~= = ~=~= = ~~= I= = =~= = = = ~= ~= =~K=t==~=~=p~=~== I= = ~= ~= = = ===K==t=`~=g~~=`mf==~==ENKRB= K= = OKMBF= = ~=~=====~=~=~K= _~= = = ~= =g~~==~=~=~=~==`kv=NQSMK= j~I= = = = =~= = v~= = ~~= = m=l~~===~=~===K=j~===~=RJNMB=~~=== = OMNMI= = = ~= ~= ~== = = = = `=== ~= =~= = =

~K==

lbà= = ~=~= == = = ~= ~= ~~= = aI===f~=~=`~====K=q=~==~===== = = = = ~K=p= = ~= = = ~===~=~=~~==K=p=~==~=~===I== ~= = = = = =~K= eI= = = = dOM===~===~====~= ==== ===~===K==q=~====~==~=== b~= = = =

= = = K= f= ~I= = c= ======~==~== b`_I= ~= ~=b===~=~===~=~K=t=~~===~====~=~==~= = OMNM= ~= ~= ~= ~=~====~=~=~==K==

US Dollar Index(weekly closing)=

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

8991

93

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==

N


3/20


ENERGY==

`====~==ATMJUML== c~K= _= = = = =~= ATSL= ~= = = = ~= rp=~~= EfpjF= ~== ~=

~=~=~===^=OMMQI=~===~K=^==~=I==~==~====~== = K= eI= _= =~~==~==ATML===~== K= bro= = = =b= = = = ~= ~=d= =~~K=a= = = ~========~==~==~==~=~=~==d=~=~==~=~=~=K= c~~I=====

==~==c~K==f= = ~= l= j~= o= Ec~= NNF==f~~=b=^=Efb^F==OMNM=~=~=~===NTM=L== =~=== fjc= = ~====~=USKR=L=K=UQKV=L==OMMVK=b~=`==~=~=~== UKV= L= ~= ~= = NMB= fjc= =~= = `~K= q= = = = =~==OMNM======== = lbàK= c= ~I= = = rp==~= = ~= = = = = OP=~I===== ==~= =K=d~======QR=L==g~~=K=aK=a==~=I=lmb`= ~= = = SNB= = RUBK=lbà=====STKU==EOKRBF==OSTU===a== ~= ==~=== ~~=U== =RN==~=~==~==ON===TR=I===~=c~=K=aK===a=c~I==rp=a~==b==~I=====UKR==

=PPTKR=K=a~====PKV===NROKT===~====PKM= = =OPNKO=K= q=~= ==~=~~=~K==q=f~~=~==~===== = ~~= ~= = f^b = = ~== = = = ~~= ==~==~==~=f~=I==~=I= = ~= ~= ~~= =K=q==~===~=~==t~==q~K=eI=`~=

~===f~=~=~=~=~===~=rk==~~=

~K=f==I=f~===== = = ~= = = ~= ~=~K=Ì===~=f~=~=~=~=======~K= pI= = rp= ~= ~= ~= = =~=~====~===~==f~~=K===^= = I= ~= ~= lmb`== ~~= E= ~= SKR= I=~==~=TKRB==~=F=~=~= ~= ~= = = ~=~= ~= = = = = ~=K= f= = = = ~= ~= ~== == =~K=`====~===~=====

= ATMJUML= ~= ~= = = = = =K= cI= _m= = = =~=~=====~=== = ~= = ~== =====~~=K=b=~=~== ~= = ~= ~I= ~= ==~===~~=~=lbà=====~==pK=cI==~===J===~====~=~=== ~= ~J= ~~K=q========

~= = = = ~= ~===~===K=q=~I= = = ~= ~= = = =~==~=~==`~=E~==^~= F== = ~= NO===~= ~= ~= K= c~== = ~= ~= ~= = ==~=~== ~~K= q= ~I== ~= ~= = = = = ==~==OMMV=====b=k=~I=~=~=====~=~== ~== ~=~K= f= =

~===~===I======~=~J===K=q======== ~= = = rp= = ~===~=~=~==~== ~= = ~=~= = =~=~K=t===== = = = ~~= ~= = =~=~=~==~===~=~K==t===~==~=~==~=lmb`===s~==j~=NT=~==~= = lmb = = ~= = ASRJURLK=

O


4/20


=q~= ~~= Ec~= OSFW= q= ~== J~= = ~= ~= ~=====~======ATMJURL=~K==

c=

=

a= = ~= = ~= = c~I== ~= = = = K= q= ~=~===~===~===~= ~= ~= = = = I=~= = = = = =~~~= ~== = ~= = ~K=q=~===~=~===`== = = = = ==~=~~=E~~=~=~==F== = = = = = ~K= q~=

~= = ~= = c~= ~= ===~=OMMV=~=~=OMNMK=t====~=~=~===~==== = = = = ~= == ~= = = E= J~=~F=~=~=~=lb`a==~= = ~= E~= ~= ==~=FK==

Freight Indices(BFX, weekly closing, January 2002 = 100)=

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

130014001500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500Baltic Dry Index (left axis)

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (right axis)

Baltic Clean Tanker Index (right axis)

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==

k=m=

=

c~=~==~===== = = = = ~= ~= =~=~=~=~K=^== ~= = ~= = = = ~=~= ~= ~~= = = =~K= q~= = = p= ~== ~= ~= = ~= ~= = =~K=q== ~~=~=~===~=~=====JQM=qtI=~=NM= qt= = ~= = = QK= q= = =

==~=====~===OMMOK=e~=~==p~~~=~=

~= = ~~= ~= = == ~~K=q= k= = =~===~=~==p=qpl=Eq~=l~F=p~=h~=~== = = = = = = = = ~== =~= == ~~== ==

= = = = = = = == = = = ~K= o~= =~= ===~=~=~= = ~I= = = ~=~= = ~= = ~=~= = = = = == = = ~= = ~K= t=~= = ~= ~=~= ~= ~= == = = = = = = ~= =~= ==~= ~= ~= = ~I=~= ~= ~= = ~=~= = ~= ~= =

K==q= = ~= = ~= ~== = = ~= = =~==K=m== ~= ===c~= OO= = ~= = = = bro=NPQKUMLjt== =p=~~== =bro=RMRKSULjt=E=====~===~=~=~=~FK=q==~===~==I=~==~K=i=~=~===~===~==~=

~==~=~====~=LK==

Nordic spot price and hydro balance(Weekly Average)=

-50-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100110

2000-W1

2000-W26

2000-W51

2001-W23

2001-W48

2002-W21

2002-W46

2003-W19

2003-W44

2004-W17

2004-W42

2005-W15

2005-W40

2006-W13

2006-W38

2007-W10

2007-W35

2008-W08

2008-W33

2009-W06

2009-W31

2010-W03

Nordic spot price (/MWh)

Nordic hydro balance (TWh)

`~= W= _I= m= `~I= pb_= `=o~==

q= = = = c~= ~~= bro=SUKVOLjt=E=bro=NRKRQLjtF=K=g~~=bro= RPIPULjtK=q=k= = ~========~~===~==~I=~===

~=====~==~~K=^=====c~I=nOJNM=~=~=bro=RRKSMLjt= E= bro= TKPRLjt= LF= ~=

P


5/20


`~JNM= ~= bro= QOKNMLjt= E= bro=NKORLjt= LFK= t= = = = =~= ~= = ~= = = ====~==p=~==~= ~K=q= =~== =~=== = = == = =

=K==

`lO

==

q= e~~~= ~= = = = = =OMPRI= = k~= ~= = = = ==== ~=^~= =====~===K=o=~==~==fm``=OMMT=~==== ~= = = ~~I= o~~=m~~I==~==========~~K=f==

I= ~~K= q= ~= =~~=~======== K= f=~= =rp=I=PQB= =~= ~= ~= = = ~= = ~=~==QTB==~=~====~K=q==~====OMMU=== ==K= q= ~= = ~== = = ~= ~= ===h===NVVTI===~=~==~====`~==aK==f= rp= = = ~= ~= ~=

= K= q= = = ~= = =~= = ~=b~=h= ~= =p=_==g~~K=q==~==NR=c~==~=_~=~I=~==Q==~===~I=~====== J= = kK= f= = =~==~==~==== ~= ~= = = k= I==~=~~===rp=~=C=~=== ~= = = ~= = ~K= ^== = = = = I= =~=~=~=~= ~= ~=rp=~=C=~= ~= = = = ~K= q= rp=b~= m= ^= Ebm^F= =~==I====rp=p=`I==~=`lO==~===~~K=eI= ~= = bm^= = = =~=~~K=^===~=~==~= ~= = = bm^= = = ~==~K=^== = ~= ~=~======bm^===ded=K==l= = = ~= ~~I= br= ~=I= `= e~~I= ~= ~=

~==~=~=~=======p=^~=~====OMNNK=

q= = = = = = =`~I=j==a=OMNMK=t=~=C=~= = = ~= = = rp= ~= `~==~=~=~===I=~= = ~= ~= C= ~= ~= ~=~~= = = h= ~= = OMMUJNOI=

=~=K=q=~==v= = _I= = = = rKkK= c~=`= = `~= `~= ErKkK= c```F===`~= ~I= =~=~====~=~=_K=p=~=~=======~==~=~=~== = = ~I= ~= ~== = J= ~= = ~== ~= = = = =K= o~= I= ==~= ~= =~= = ========

o~= m= p~~= =~K==f==~===~==b~=~=~I==br=bqpI=~=========br==~== = h= = = = = ~=K=^= ~= =br^W= == br= bqp=~=~~=~==~==~== ^^rW= E= h= ~~= FK= b== b= ~= ~= = ~~== = h= I= = = = =

= = = h= ~= = =~= ~= C= ~= ~= = = ~= OMNOK=q=== `lO= = = =~= ~====~=~=~===~==I= ~= = ~=K=f=====~=~=~=C=~== ~= OMNOI= = = = = ~= =b~= ~= = = b~== ~= = = ~= = ~=K=q==~~==~=~===========~==~=~=~=~~=K==

b==b~===~=~===OMNP===I==~=====br^WK=q=~==== ~= = = = = OMNP= =OMOM== E= = = = = ~~= FI=b~= ~= = ~= = = ~= == = ~= ~== = = p~=~====rp=E~=~==~=~= = = br^WF= ~= = ~=~=~===K==q= br^= = ~= ~= ~J~=

= NOKQRL= ~= NQKMQL= = c~I=====~=NPKMMLK=

Q


6/20


CRUDE OIL=

Crude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)=

102030405060708090

100110120130

140150

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

NYMEX WTI

ICE Brent

=

US crude oil stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

j f m a m j j a s o n d

2005-2009 avg.

2009

2010

OIL PRODUCTS=Gasoline and heating oil prices(NYMEX, /gal, front month, weekly closing)=

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

NYMEX Gasoline

NYMEX Heating oil

=

Gasoline and distillate stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=

110

120

130140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

j f m a m j j a s o n d

Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.

Gasoline 2010

Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.

Distillate fuel oil 2010

=

POWER=

Nordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Continental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=

20253035404550556065707580859095

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

R


7/20


CO2 NATURAL GAS=

EUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 10, weekly closing)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

US natural gas prices(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=

0123456789

101112

131415

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

==

FUTURES CURVES=WTI(NYMEX, $/b)=

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

apr-

10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-1

1

apr-

11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-1

2

apr-

12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-1

3

apr-

13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-1

4

apr-

14

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

=

Brent(ICE, $/b)=

7072

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

apr-

10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-1

1

apr-

11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-1

2

apr-

12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-1

3

apr-

13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-1

4

apr-

14

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

=

Gasoline(NYMEX, /gal)=

190

195

200

205

210

215

220

225

230

235

apr-

10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-1

1

apr-

11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-1

2

apr-

12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-1

3

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

=

US natural gas(NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

mar-

10

jul-10

nov-1

0

mar-

11

jul-11

nov-1

1

mar-

12

jul-12

nov-1

2

mar-

13

jul-13

nov-1

3

mar-

14

jul-14

nov-1

4

mar-

15

jul-15

nov-1

5

mar-

16

jul-16

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

S


8/20


=INDUSTRIAL METALS==

`=

f~= ~= = = =c~= ~= ~= = = =`~=~==~==`=k=v~== = ~= ~= =

= mjfK= q= = = =~==E=NQKRBF===~=~== = E= MKRB= ~= = OKTB=FK=i~I==~===SKVBI=QKMB=~=SKSBK=K=

=

`= = = rpa= SOSPJTQNTL= =c~I= = = = = ~= rpa=TNTRLK= ijb= = = = =c~= = ~= ~~= ~=E= QKUBFK=^= == ~=~= ~= ~=~== =~=~======= ~= = = =~~I= = = = = ~= =====K=l~I===~= ~= ~~= ~= = ~K= q~=~~= Ec~= OSFW= `= ~= == I= ~= = = ~I=~= = = ~= = = ~= K=

m= = ~= = rpa= SVRML= ===~K=m==rpa=TRMML==~==~===rpa=TUMMK=

=ijb= ~= = = = = == ~= ~= J~= K= d= ~== ~= = = ~= = =~= ~= ~= = `~= ~=~I= = ~= OMNM= = ~=~I=~==K=^====mjf=

~~=~======~=~== = = = `= ~=====~==~K== =f= = = I= ~= ~= = == ~= = = K=eI= = = = = = =I= ~= `= ~= =lb`a=~====K=e= == ~= =~~=====~=~=~=~==K=f~===~=

= = = === ~~===~=K=

k=

=

k= = = rpa= NSVUQJONNNPL= =c~I= = = = = ~= rpa=ONNNPLK= ijb= = = = =c~= = ~= = = = ~=~= ~~= ~= = ~=E= OKRBFK= i~= = = `~~~=

= =~==k===c~====~==~~== = = = OMNMK= q= == = ~~~= ~= =c~= ~= = = ~= =~K=q~=~~=Ec~=OSFW =q== ~= = ~= = ~= =~= = ^= OMMV= = = rpa= ONOORLK= ^==~~=~=~=~==== ~= J= NSOB= = = ~=rpa=OPRRRL=~==========K=c====~===~=OMMU=SOBW= ~= OMMT= = ~= rpa= OQVMMLK= f~== = = = = rpa= NVUSMJNVUVML= K=_=rpa=NTMMML====~K=

=

^=

=

^= = = rpa= NVROJONOTL==c~I= = == = ~=rpa=ONMULK= ijb= = ~= ~== == = ~=~~== = ~= E= SKTBFK=b~= I= ~= = ~== = ~~= = = ~=~==~====~K=eI= = ~= ~= = = ~=~=====TRB==ijb== = = = ~~= ~K= q~=~~=Ec~=OSFW=d=~=====E~=====~==~=~=FK=m==rpa=OMTNL== ~= = = = = =rpa= OMOML= = I= = I= == = ~= = ~= = = rpa=NVTMLK=

=w

==

w= = = rpa= NVONJOPQTL= =c~I= = = = = ~= rpa=ONTRLK= ijb= = = ~== = = ~= ~= ~~=~= = E= MKSBFK= w= =~= = ~= = ~= K=eI=~==~=~==~=~=

==~=~=~~=~==OMNMK=q~= ~~= Ec~= OSFW= q= ~=

=

T


9/20


~= ~= = ~= = = ~== ~~= = ~= ~= ~~= J~===g~~=~K=p===rpa=ONMML= ~= = = = ~= = = rpa=NVPUL=~=~=OMMULMV=RMBW=~=rpa=NUVMLK==

p=

=

ijb=j~~====rpa=QNPJQQSL= = c~I= = = == ~= rpa= QQSLK= l= = ~= I=ijb= c~= b~= = = =rpa= QNRJQQRLI=====~=rpa=QQRLK=f= = = ~= = = = =K= f= `~I= = = = = = = ===PJR=~====~= = = ~= = ~= ~=~~K= `I= `~= =

= = = = = =~== = = = = = =~==~~K=p===~==== = OMNM= = = = K= q=~= = ~= = ~= =~= = = = ~= ~~= = ======~K=`=~=~=====~=====~=~=K=p=~===~=~I==~== = = = ~K= `I== ~= ~= ~= I=

KK= = o~I= = = = QMB= = =~==~=b~=K==

U


10/20


ALUMINIUM=

Aluminium price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Aluminium stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

SHFE

COMEX

LME

==

COPPER=Copper price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Copper stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

SHFE

COMEX

LME

NICKEL=

Nickel price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Nickel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

==

V


11/20


ZINC=

Zinc price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Zinc stocks(LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

SHFE

LME

=

LEAD=Lead price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Lead stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

200000

225000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

TIN=

Tin price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

24000

27000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Tin stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

NM


12/20


STEEL=

Steel price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

dec-0

8

feb

-09

apr-

09

jun-0

9

aug-0

9

okt-09

dec-0

9

feb

-10

LME Mediterranean

LME Far East

=

Steel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

jul-08

sep-0

8

nov-0

8

jan-0

9

mar-

09

ma

j-09

jul-09

sep-0

9

nov-0

9

jan-1

0

LME Far East

LME Mediterranean

=

FUTURES CURVES=

Aluminium(LME, $/t)=

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

2450

apr-

10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-1

1

apr-

11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-1

2

apr-

12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-1

3

apr-

13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-1

4

apr-

14

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

=

Copper(LME, $/t)=

640065006600

6700

68006900

70007100

72007300

74007500

apr-10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-11

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

==

Nickel(LME, $/t)=

18000

18500

19000

19500

20000

20500

21000

21500

mar-10

jun-10

sep-10

dec-10

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

10-01-2910-02-19

10-02-26

=

Zinc(LME, $/t)=

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

2450

mar-10

jun-10

sep-10

dec-10

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~

NN


13/20


=PRECIOUS METALS==

a= ~= = = = ==~=I==~=== = = = = ~=K= q= = = =

~= c~= = ~= ~= ~~== ~= = d= = = =K= m~~= = =====~=~K=a= = = = = ~= == K= = = = ~= ~=K=

`I== ==== =~= =~= I= = = ==K=f=~I==~=====~==~=~~====d==~=~=~=~=====K= `= = I= == ~I= ==~= = ~=~= ~= = ~= = = ~== ~= ~= = = = ~= ~======K==

= q~= ~~I= = Ec~= OSFW= d=~~=====~===~=J=~==K=m=~=rpa=NNSNL====~===~=~===~= rpa= NOOSLK= m= = rpa= NMUPJ

NMUUL===~==~K=

q=fjc=~====~==~=~===~=NVNKP======~= ~= QMPKP= K= i~= ~I= f~I= p=i~~= ~= j~= = ~= ~= = OMO=

= = ~K= q= fjc= ~= =~~= ~= ~= = = ~~= ~== = = ~= ~= ~== = ~= ~= = = ~= ~=~==~K=

==

Gold and selected currencies vs. USD

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB

YTD (%) MoM (%)

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

=^= = =t=d=`= Etd`FI==~===NNB=L==OMMVK=q==~= = = ~= ~= f=EHTBFK= fI= = = ~= `== = = = ~==~=~K=q===~==

= = ~= = `~K= a= == = = ~= = = =td`= = = ~= = ~== = OMNMK= f~= ~= =~= = ~= = ~= ~= =K=

=m~~= ~= ~= ~= = = == = = = = =K=q==~=~==== ~= = J= = = ~= = =~= = ~= = = = = ~=~= = ~K= c= ~I=`~= = = = ~= ~= =g~~==NKSS=====rp=~== = = K= p== = ~= = = = ~===~K==f~= = = ~= =~==~==K=fI==fjc= ~= ~= = ~= = ~===~====~=~==K=a=~=~=~== =~= ~= = I= = =

==K==

NO


14/20


GOLD=

Gold price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Gold to oil & gold to LME Index ratios(front month, weekly closing)=

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6Gold to oil ratio (left axis)

Gold to LME Index ratio (right axis)

=

SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=

Silver price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

2

46

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Platinum and palladium prices(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

100

300

500

700

900

1100

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

300

550

800

1050

1300

1550

1800

2050

2300Palladium (left ax is)

Platinum (right axis)

==

FUTURES CURVES=

Gold(COMEX, $/ozt)=

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

apr-10

jul-10

okt-10

jan-11

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

jul-14

okt-14

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

=

Silver(COMEX, $/ozt)

16,00

16,25

16,50

16,75

17,00

17,25

mar-10

jun-10

sep-10

dec-10

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

jun-14

sep-14

dec-14

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

NP


15/20


AGRICULTURE=

q= ~= = EI= ~= ~= ~F== = = c~= = ==I===~===== = ~= ~=

~= = ~= = = ~= = =K=eI==~====~= ~= ~~= ~= =c~K===a= = = = rpa^=^~= l= c= = ~===~====rp=OMNMLOMNN== ~K= t~= ~~I= = ~== ~= = = = K= `== = = = ~= ~= =~=~~=~==~=

= = = = ~= ~~= ==~K=p~=~~=~==~= = = = = =~~==~=~==~=~======~K==q=_~~=~=~==K=a== ~= = ~= = ~I== ~= ~= ~~= OMB= ==~K=eI= == ~== === = =~=nPI= = = =_~~= ~= ~K= `= ~= ~= ~=

OPJ=====rp=~~=~~=~===~K=a= ~=~====I==~~=====~=K=q==~===~==K==b= k= ~= ~= ~= ~== = ~= = = == K= ^= = = ~=~= = = = = ==~~===K=f=~=== = = = ~=~= = = =~= = ==~===~=====~= ~= ~= I= KK= = = = ~=~K==`

==

`===PROJPTUL==c~I== = = = ~= PTULK=a=t^pab= Et= ^~= p= ~=~= b~I= c~= VF= ~= == ~= = ~= = NKPU= == = = ~= MVLNMI= = = =

= = OKNR= = = = K=k=~=========~=

= = = = ~= = = MVLNMK=eI= = p= ^~= ==~=~===~=== ~~K=eI== = =

= = ~= I= ~= = =~=~=~K=^===~== rp= ~= = ~= E= ~=~= = ~= ~= =rp=~== = = F= = NMB= = NRB= == = K= q~= ~~=Ec~=OSFW =q=======~== = = K= m= = PRPL== = I= ~= = ~= = =PQTLI= = = = = = = ~= ~=~= ~= = = PMML= ~~== ==~K=

=t~

==

t~= = = QSVJRMSL= =c~I=====~=RMSLK=t^pab= ~= ~= = ~==~==NKPN=====~=MVLNMK=b= = = ~= = ~= == MKOS==== K=p== ~~= = = ~= = ~== =~= = = ~===== ~===

K=q~=~~=Ec~=OSFW=f~== = ~= = = = = = = == = g~~K= q= ~= = = ~=~===K=t= = === = = = ~= ~= = = = ~= ==QORLK==

p~=

=

p~= = = VMUJVSRL= =c~I=====~=VRNLK=t^pab= ~= ~= = ~==~==NKSQ=====~=MVLNMK=b= = = = = MKMT= = == K= ^= ~= = == = = ~= = = ~= ~==p=^~==~=~J==rp= ~~I= ~= = = = =~= = = = K= q=~= = = = ~= ~= ~==~========c~K=q~=~~=Ec~=OSFW= q==~==~==~==~===E~==a=~=~FK=^===~= = =VPOL==== = ~=

=~==VMML=~K==

NQ


16/20


=

CORN=

Corn price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Corn ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

mt

days of supply

==

WHEAT=

Wheat price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

200300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Wheat ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

4060

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

mt

days of supply

SOYBEANS=

Soybean price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Soybean ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

mt

days of supply

NR


17/20


=

SUGAR COFFEE=

Sugar price(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Coffee price (Arabica)(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

==

=FUTURES CURVES=

Corn(CBOT, /bu)=

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

mar-10

jun-10

sep-10

dec-10

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

Wheat(CBOT, /bu)=

450

500

550

600

650

700

mar-10

jun-10

sep-10

dec-10

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

=

Soybeans(CBOT, /bu)=

900

910

920

930

940

950

960

970

980

mar-10

jun-10

sep-10

dec-10

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

=

Sugar(CBOT, /lb)=

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

10-01-29

10-02-19

10-02-26

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa^=

NS


18/20


=

COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS==

EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next

Industrial production (%, YoY) -4,8 2009-12-31 -6,8 2009-11-30 2010-03-12

Industrial production (%, MoM) -1,6 2009-12-31 1,4 2009-11-30 2010-03-12

Capacity utilization (%, sa) 72,4 2010-03-31 71,0 2009-12-31

Manufacturing PMI54,2 2010-02-28 52,4 2010-01-31 2010-03-01

Real GDP (%, YoY) -2,1 2009-12-31 -4,0 2009-09-30 2010-03-04

Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,1 2009-12-31 0,4 2009-09-30 2010-03-04

CPI (%, YoY) 1,0 2010-01-31 0,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-16

CPI (%, MoM) -0,8 2010-01-31 0,3 2009-12-31 2010-03-16

Consumer confidence -17,0 2010-02-28 -16,0 2010-01-31 2010-03-22

USA

Industrial production (%, YoY) 0,9 2010-01-31 -2,2 2009-12-31

Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,9 2010-01-31 0,7 2009-12-31 2010-03-15

Capacity utilization (%) 72,6 2010-01-31 71,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-15

Manufacturing PMI 58,4 2010-01-31 54,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-01

Real GDP (%, YoY) 0,1 2009-12-31 -2,6 2009-09-30

Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 5,9 2009-12-31 2,2 2009-09-30 2010-03-26

CPI (%, MoM) 2,6 2010-01-31 2,7 2009-12-31 2010-03-18

CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,2 2010-01-31 0,2 2009-12-31 2010-03-18

OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,4 2010-01-31 101,5 2009-12-31

Consumer confidence (Michigan) 73,6 2010-02-28 74,4 2010-01-31 2010-03-12

Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, 000) -20 2010-01-31 -150 2009-12-31 2010-03-05

JAPAN

Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 18,2 2010-01-31 5,1 2009-12-31 2010-03-12

Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) 2,5 2010-01-31 1,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-12

Capacity utilization (%, sa) 84,3 2009-12-31 83,1 2009-11-30

Manufacturing PMI 52,5 2010-02-28 52,5 2010-01-31

Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) -0,4 2009-12-31 -5,2 2009-09-30

Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 1,1 2009-12-31 2009-09-30 2010-03-11

CPI (%, YoY) -1,8 2010-02-28 -2,1 2010-01-31 2010-03-26

CPI (%, MoM) -0,2 2010-01-31 -0,2 2009-12-31


Consumer confidence 39,4 2010-01-31 37,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-15

CHINA

Industrial production (%, YoY) 18,5 2009-12-31 19,2 2009-11-30 2010-03-11

Manufacturing PMI 52,0 2010-02-28 55,8 2010-01-31 2010-03-01

Real GDP (%, YoY) 10,7 2009-12-31 9,1 2009-09-30 2010-04-15

CPI (%, YoY) 1,5 2010-01-31 1,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-11


Consumer confidence 103,9 2009-12-31 103,3 2009-11-30

Bank lending (%, YoY) 29,3 2010-01-31 31,7 2009-12-31

Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 30,1 2009-12-31 33,4 2009-09-30

OTHER

OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 103,1 2009-12-31 102,2 2009-11-30

Global manufacturing PMI 56,1 2010-01-31 54,6 2009-12-31

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=

NT


19/20


=PERFORMANCE==

Monthlyclosing(100226)

YTD(%)

1 m(%)

1 q(%)

1 y(%)

5 y(%)

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1110,94 -5,5 3,7 -1,5 35,7 63,1

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1046,82 -5,6 3,7 -1,5 35,5 41,8

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1284,53 -5,2 3,9 -0,5 46,9 84,8

UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1285,96 -5,2 4,9 -0,7 47,9 52,6UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1062,71 -5,0 5,9 4,2 84,2 90,5

UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 1617,41 -1,0 3,1 -6,2 20,3 151,7

UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1353,68 -7,4 1,2 -4,9 21,9 85,1

Baltic Dry Index 2738,00 -12,8 -3,9 -29,6 40,4 -42,6

Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 79,66 -2,3 9,3 3,1 76,2 54,7

Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 77,59 -3,2 8,6 -1,1 66,8 56,4

Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2108,00 -5,8 2,7 3,6 57,8 10,5

Copper (LME, $/t) 7175,00 -4,0 6,6 3,9 106,4 117,3

Nickel (LME, $/t) 21113,00 11,5 14,5 29,1 111,2 30,6

Zinc (LME, $/t) 2174,50 -14,6 4,0 -5,4 94,2 58,8

Steel (LME, Far East, $/t) 445,00 6,0 4,5 -10,1 53,4

Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 445,50 9,3 8,4 15,6 45,1

Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1118,90 0,1 3,3 -5,3 18,7 156,6Corn (CBOT, /bu) 378,00 -9,7 6,0 -6,1 4,4 78,7

Wheat (CBOT, /bu) 506,50 -9,2 6,9 -10,7 -1,5 56,7

Soybeans (CBOT, /bu) 951,00 -9,4 4,0 -10,3 9,4 59,2

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

=

MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS==

Date Source

Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov

American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org

International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report March 12 www.oilmarketreport.com

OPEC, Oil Market Report March 10 www.opec.org

US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov

US Department of Agriculture, WASDE/WAP March 10 www.usda.gov

International Grains Council, Grain Market Report March 25 www.igc.org.uk

OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria March 17 www.opec.org

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

=

CONTACT LIST, SEB COMMODITIES==

Position E-mail Phone Mobile

Mikael Nordstrm Head of Commodities [email protected] +46 8 506 230 26 +46 70 293 00 12

RESEARCH

Bjarne Schieldrop Chief Analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30

Filip Petersson Commodity Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84

SALES

Arne Boberg Head of Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67Charlotte Aleblad Corporate Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10

Magnus Wallenbert Corporate Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 24 +46 76 213 33 40

TRADING

Stefan Fastesson Head of Trading [email protected] +46 8 506 230 13 +46 73 850 13 30

Mats Forsell Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82

Mats Hedberg Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78

Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76

Christian Ekstrand Quantitative Analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research==

NU
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


20/20

=

a~=C=

`~===

=q= ~====~====pb_=j~=_~I=~===p~~~=b~=_~=^_=EF=Epb_FK===l=~======~====~=~===~==K=^=~=~====~=== = = ~= = = = = = ~K= eI= =~= = ~~I= = = I= = ~= = = = ===~~====~==~=======~=~~K=^==~=~=~==========~========~=~=====~K=q=====~=~=I=~===~=~===~=~===X======~I==~=~==~==~===~==~========K==pb_==~==~=~==pI=pI===~K=f== ~= = ~~= ~= ~= k= ~= = b~= o~= j~= ~=j~~=q~=c~=E~==~==Jb~=~=~F==~==~~=I==~=~=~==k^pa^n=ljuI=kvpb=bI=i=p=b~I=a=_I=p=b~I=q=~=

`JuK= pb_= = ~= ~= ~= = c~= = pX= = =~=~====~===c~~=p=^=== = = ~= = = = = rhI= ~= = = = == = ~= ~= = ~= = = = pb_= =~K====

pb_=j~=_~K=^==K====

============

pb_=`=j==~====q~===K=

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