SEETHARAM

Global Asia Institute

“Living Cities”: New Insights for Water and Food Security for Rapidly Urbanizing Asia

Seetharam Kallidaikurichi E.Director, Institute of Water PolicyVisiting Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public PolicyDirector, Global Asia Institute

Global Interdependence Center – Global Conference Series 2009Food and Water – Basic Challenges to International StabilityBooth School of Business, SingaporeThursday, 19 November 2009

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,

without prior permission in writing from the Institute of Water Policy and Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

Global Asia InstituteGlobal Asia Institute

About the

Institute of Water Policy

To help leaders address

“water challenges” in the

region

2


Vision / Mission of IWP

Vision

• Increase the profile of water security in national policy agenda in

the region

• Leading research centre in Asia for effective water policies

• Centre of excellence for training leaders and professionals for

water governance and management

Mission

• Build and strengthen a water policy research network in the

region

• Offer training, water policy advise, and consulting based on a

dynamic and relevant policy research agenda

3


Research Focus

• The Medium Term Research Program focuses on areas like:

– Structural, macro and long term water policy issues

– Emerging global trends affecting water policy

– Climate change and adaptation measures in the water sector

– Formal policy instruments for water management

– Water resources management

– Water policy and technology

– Water, poverty alleviation and environmental conservation

– Legislative, regulatory and institutional frameworks

– Infrastructure finance

– Conflict and collaborative governance for water

– Politics and planning of water policy

– Sustainability of water resource systems

– Inter-linkages between water, energy, and food policies4


Our Activities

Conferences, Seminars

• Singapore International Water Week, 2009

• “New” Thinking on Water Governance, 2007

• World Cities Summit 2010

IWP Research

• Asian Water Indicators and Statistics

• Water Governance Index

• Dynamic Modeling of Water Policy Systems

• Key Lessons Learnt and Good Practices in Water and

Wastewater Management

• Case Studies on Good Practices for Urban Water Management

in Asia5


1. What does the world economic development, in

reference to GDP in the last 50 years, tell us?

6


GDP Per capita (Current US$) 1975-2005

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Germany

Japan

Korea, Republic of

Republic of Korea

Singapore

United States

7


2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

2005

2000

1995

1990

19851980

1975

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

GD

P p

er

cap

ita

(cu

rre

nt

US$

)

Percentage Urban (%)

Germany

Japan

Republic of Korea

United States

Linear (Germany)

Linear (Japan)

Expon. (Republic of Korea)

Linear (United States)

GDP and Urbanization

Data source: GDP per capita: UN-Data (Germany: Data prior to 1990 refer to the Federal Republic of Germany before unification for the

following categories: agricultural production, balance of payments, trade, government finance, defense, monetary indicators, and tourism.)

Percentage Urban: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World

Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unup8


Urbanization and GDP increase go together

Income growth

urbanization

urban employment

opportunities

+

industry

industry land

requirements

+

rural-urban

migration

-

GDP +

+

industrial

productivity +

+

-

+

9


Urbanization Trends in Asian Countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

India

IndonesiaChina

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 2000 2050

Germany

Sweden

USA

10


2. What else is needed to support GDP growth (and

urbanization)?

How has the world performed in the last 25 years with

Governance (measured by TI) and Human

Development measured by HDI?

11


Urbanization and GDP depend on Human Development,

Good Governance

12

Human development +

Good Governance

GDP Growth

Urbanization

GDP GrowthUrbanization


13


3. What are the key messages – we will have more cities

without choice, in the future.

Depending on what policies we embrace, we will know

whether we will have “choked cities” or “living cities”.

14


1950 1975 2000 2015

New York 12.3 Tokyo 19.8

New York 15.9

Shanghai 11.4

Mexico City 11.2

Sao Paulo 10.0

Population (million)

Source: United Nations 2004

Tokyo

Mexico City

Bombay

Sao Paulo

New York

Lagos

Los Angeles

Calcutta

Shanghai

Buenos Aires

Dhaka

Karachi

Delhi

Jakarta

Osaka

Metro Manila

Beijing

Rio de Janeiro

Cairo

19.8

18.1

18.1

17.8

16.6

13.4

13.1

12.9

12.9

12.6

12.3

11.8

11.7

11.0

11.0

10.9

10.8

10.6

10.6

Tokyo

Bombay

Lagos

Dhaka

Sao Paulo

Karachi

Mexico City

New York

Jakarta

Calcutta

Delhi

Metro Manila

Shanghai

Los Angeles

Buenos Aires

Cairo

Istanbul

Beijing

Rio de Janeiro

Osaka

Tianjin

Hyderabad

Bangkok

26.4

26.1

23.2

21.1

20.4

19.2

19.2

17.4

17.4

17.3

16.8

14.8

14.6

14.1

14.1

13.8

12.5

12.3

11.9

11.0

10.7

10.5

10.1

The Emergence and Growth of Megacities

15


Massive, unprecedented

urbanization in Asia—especially

the many small urban centers of

less than 500,000 people—will

present new types of water- and

wastewater-related challenges that

all countries will have to face.

Pace of Urbanization is Unprecedented

Source: AWDO 2007, ADB16


Lack of governance

Random and politicized policies

InefficiencyEconomic stagnation

Human misery

Improved governance

Predictable public

policies

Efficient economy

GDP Increase

Human development

Virtuous cycle – Living City Vicious cycle – Choking city

17


4. What is the framework for living cities? Living CITIES

18


urban employment

opportunities

housing price

urban land area

(km2)

quality of life

crowding

pollution

+

+

--

industry

industry land

requirements

+ available land for housing

-

-

-

+

rural-urban

migration

-

GDP +

+

+

industrial

productivity +

+

-

rural--urban

migration

urban population

- +

-

+

19


Living CITIES

Competitiveness

Infrastructure

Transport

Information

Environment

Shelter

20


The Global Competitiveness Report 2008-

2009 © 2008 World Economic Forum

IMD World Competitiveness

Yearbook 2008

The Best Countries for Business

2009: Forbes Magazine

21

Competitiveness

CCompetitiveness is crucial for cities to be the engine of growth for the nation

Commitment at local political administration is crucial to maintain competitiveness

Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006


Transparency International:

2008 Corruption Perceptions

Index

2009 Index of Economic

Freedom: The Heritage

Foundation, Wall Street

Journal

Opacity Index: Milken

Institute / Kurtzman

Group (2008)

22

Competitiveness



2009 Quality of Life Survey (City

Infrastructure) : Mercer HR consulting

The 2008 Human

Development Index: UNDP

23

Infrastructure

IInfrastructure of the cities must be efficient and affordable to achieve competitiveness

Infrastructure should be improved and operated on commercial sustainability



TTransport and communications should

provide mobility,

be safe and

be reliable for the cities to function effectively


Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Business Environment Ranking 2008

Doing Business Report 2009,

World Bank

24

Transport


IInformation is the key factor for good governance

Transparency, low transaction costs through e-government is a requirement


Global Information Technology Report 2008–

2009: World Economic Forum-Insead

E-readiness rankings 2008: EIU & IBM

Institute for Business Value

25

Information


EEnvironment i.e. when the quality of life, open space, and air quality are good, cities will be sustainable

Cities have life…


Innovation Output Study 20082009 Quality of Life Survey:

Mercer HR consulting

26

EnvironmentPersonal Safety Index, Mercer HR

(2008)


SShelter i.e. availability and affordability of housing space through appropriate land use and housing policy and planning is a salient feature of a city with a vision

The 2008 Global Cities Index: A.T Kearney,

Chicago Council of Global Affairs, FPCost of Living Index 2008: Mercer HR

consulting

27

Shelter



Living Cities

better “infrastructure”

good “governance”

become candidates for living in cities through leaders who ensure



5. What are the crucial enabling factors for living cities:

Effective Water and Sanitation services and food security.

How have the Asian cities performed with respect to Water,

sanitation and food security? What are the linkages between

good governance and water and sanitation?

29


Phnom

Penh, Jakarta, Vientiane, Johor, Metro Cebu, Singapore Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh,

Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam

Indicator 2007 2001 2005 2005 2005 2007 2003 2005

Water Supply

Coverage (%)

90 51 56 100 55 100 89 72.9

Water

Availability

(hours)

24 22 24 24 20 24 24 24

Non-Revenue

Water (%)

6 51 28 37 27 4 ** 34 43

Staff Per

1,000

Connections

4 5.3 8 2.1 8 2.6 @ 3.1 5.3

Operating

Ratio #

0.32 0.8 0.93 0.71 0.76 0.85 0.68 0.97

# Annual Operation and Maintenance cost/ Annual Revenue

** "Unaccounted for Water" for Singapore

@ "Staff per 1,000 accounts" for Singapore

Sources: ADB and the utilities

Water utilities lose nearly half the water they produce

30


Water utilities deliver on average 4 hours per day

31

# Annual Operation and Maintenance cost/ Annual Revenue

Source: Asian Development Bank, 2007 Benchmarking and Data Book of Water Utilities in India"na" denotes "not available"

Indicator Ahmedabad Amritsar Bangalore Bhopal Chandigarh Chennai Coimbatore Indore

Water Supply

Coverage

(%) 74.5 75.7 92.9 83.4 100 89.3 76.1 77.3

Water

Availability

(hours) 2 11 4.5 1.5 12 5 3 0.75

Unaccounted

for Water (%) na 57 45 na 39 17 41 na

Staff Per

1,000

Connections 2.2 4.8 5.2 20.7 8.6 13.3 4 18.7

Operating

Ratio # 1.43 1.36 0.8 2.82 1.36 0.44 0.82 5.33


Source: Asia Water Watch 2015, Asian Development Bank, UNDP, UNESCAP, WHO

Note: "na” - "not applicable”; . Transparency International’s CPI score indicates the degree of public sector corruption

as perceived by business people and country analysts. It ranges between 0 (highly corrupt) and 10 (highly clean)

Urban

water

Rural

water

Urban

sanitation

Rural

sanitation

Corruption

Perceptions

Country (%) (%) (%) (%) Index 2008

Cambodia 64 35 53 8 1.8

Indonesia 87 69 73 40 2.6

Lao People's Democratic Republic 79 43 67 20 2.0

Malaysia 100 96 95 93 5.1

Philippines 87 82 80 59 2.3

Singapore 100 na 100 na 9.2

Thailand 98 100 98 99 3.5

Vietnam 99 80 92 50 2.7

Immense challenges to deliver Water in Asia

32


Food Price Rise

• Over the past 5 years, food prices have been rising, stoking fears of a

"food crisis.“

– The World Bank's food price index climbed 57% in the first quarter of 2008

alone.

• About one billion people in Asia spend at least 60% of their income on

food. Majority of these are urban dwellers.

33

FAO food price indices (Till April 2008)

Source: http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ai465e/ai465e06.htm


6. What are the out-of-the-box solutions? Water and

Sanitation; innovation and technology (learn from

other sectors: energy, telecom, food, etc.)

34


Centrality of WATSAN

Improved governance

Predictable public policies

Efficient economy

GDP Increase

Human development

Human development

School enrollment

Education

Employment

and income

Water, sanitation, Food and Housing

Health

Water, Sanitation, Food and Housing:

Key to Human Development

35


“Even with the most comprehensive plans and visions of a sustainable future, nothing can be accomplished without strong political will, good governance, effective implementation and a motivated workforce.”

- Khoo Teng Chye(Chief Executive, PUB)

in Asit K Biswas, Cecilia Tortajada, and Rafael Izquierdo (Eds.), Water

Management in 2020 and Beyond, Berlin: Springer, 2009, p.249

36


urban employment

opportunities

housing price

urban land

area (km2)

public services

quality of life

crowding

pollution

+

+

+

--

industry

industry land

requirements

+ available land for housing

-

-

-

+

rural-urban

migration

-

GDP +

+

+

industrial

productivity +

+

-

rural--urban

migration

urban population

- +

-

budget allocated forimproving public

infrastructure

+

+

+

37


Water, Precious Water

Even a 2% drop in the body can trigger Dehydration

90%

Blood95%

95%

70%

82%

38


Water is Food, Need, and Good

“It is impossible to continue with the traditional idea

of providing required drinking water to every one

free of cost or at highly subsidized rates.”

• Drinking water is Food(1–2 liters per capita per day)

• Water for essential use is a Need (10–20 lpcd; own source, rain water harvesting)

• Water for other uses is a Good (24-hour supply; full cost recovery, water conservation)

Deliver drinking water immediately to all 39


Thinking “out-of-the-box” on Water & Sanitation

Learn from the telecom and energy sectors

• APANA is a new framework to serve a

potential $1 Trillion market, for a market size

of $100 million persons per year, until 2015.

• Technology driven, and Scalable Solutions

• Replace the 200-year old technology for

toilets

• Give new solutions to approx 1 billion

current customers

• Innovation for sanitation like “handphone”

for “telecommunication

• Car, fashion designers

• Vacuum cleaner solution for sanitation

• Building design innovation (self-contained

apartments, communities)

Issues

QuestionsSolutions

APANA 1012

40


Water, Energy, and Food policies cannot be delinked

Water, Energy, and Food policies cannot be made without a deeper understanding of the

central role of water with respect to everyday needs. Approaching any of the policies in

isolation will result in failed policies in a globalized world.

41


Nexus between Water and Food

• Agriculture consumes 85 percent of fresh water withdrawals in

developing countries

• Growing population in cities and growing affluence has increased the

demand for diets containing more animal protein

• Roughly 1,000-2,000 litres of water is required to produce a KG of

wheat, and 10,000-13,000 litres of water to produce a KG of beef

• The present average food ingest of 2,800 kcal/person/day may require

roughly 1,000 m3 per year water to be produced.

• Thus, with a world population of 6 billion, water needed to produce the

necessary food is 6,000 km3 (excluding any conveyance losses

associated with irrigation systems).

42Source: FAO, World Development Report 2008


7. Who can ensure that we embrace “living cities”

framework – Passionate leadership is essential

43


New Paradigm for Living Cities

“Proper Knowledge + Positive Action = Good Leadership”

• Executive education for nurturing leaders for the future

• Proactive role of media in shaping public policy on water

• Simple indicators for a “pulse check” on water governance

“People”

Procedures

Policy

“Passion”

“Nations that prioritized urban water policies have

successfully improved quality of life in terms of HDI.”44


8. What is the big picture on water management – new

look at the water cycle; dynamic modeling of public

policy

45


Understanding the water cycle: “no beginning” – “no end”

46


9. What is the vision of good water governance – Man is

part of Nature; Nurture Nature.

47


Nurture Nature

Air

Space

Fire

Water

EarthEarth provides all organic and inorganic nutrients (minerals) and materials.

75% of creation comprises water. Water is home to many beings. Water recycles itself eternally.

Solar energy, coal and petroleum products sustain the modern economy.

Modern industry, medicine, and households use a variety of gases. Air travel is the hallmark of 21st century.

Satellite, internet, mobile phone, and other communication technology are essential in daily life.

landslide,

earthquakes

floods

typhoons

volcanic eruption

extreme

temperatures

radiation hazards

harmful gases,

infective virus

Nature can Give; Nature can Destroy!48


Conclusion

“Governance is more about

governing our own behavior in Nature.”

49


About the


Transcending boundaries of

geography and knowledge

50


Introduction

• It will address deep issues crucial to the future of Asia, and at a

level of depth and breadth not readily achievable if studied

through traditional academic disciplines or policy institutes.

• GAI will provide an innovative new platform to bring together

existing expertise from NUS, as well as other universities within

and outside Asia, particularly scholars with expertise in China

and India, to work together across disciplines to address the

critical issues within Asia.

• It will be integrative as well as holistic, combining the hard-side

(engineering solutions, quantitative methodologies and

systematic scientific analysis), with the soft-side (human and

social issues) of the knowledge domains.

51


Vision and Mission

Vision

• Integrative research to solve challenges of the Asian century

Mission

• Integrative and multi-disciplinary, cluster of 2-3 PIs

• High impact research

• India / china focus

• Wikipedia approach / regular workshop

• Iterative and cumulative

• Social sciences first, followed by wet-bench

52


© All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,

without prior permission in writing from the Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

For further enquiries, please contact:

Director, Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

Director, Global Asia Institute

National University of Singapore, 469C Bukit Timah Road, Singapore 259772

Telephone: (65) 6516 2083, Fax: (65) 6468 4186

Email: [email protected]

[email protected]

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SEETHARAM