Session 2 - 17th October, 2013wp

8/12/2019 Session 2 - 17th October, 2013wp

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ProACT The eight keys to decision making I

The way decision is framed at the outset can make all the difference. To chose

well, decisions problems need to be stated carefully acknowledging theircomplexity and avoiding unwarranted assumptions and option-l imiting prejudices

e.g. Buying the rightfitness equipmentWork on right

decisionproblems

Your decision should get you where you want to go. Ask yourself what you mostwant to accomplish and which of your interests, values etc. are most relevant.Thinking through objectives gives direction to decision making

e.g. Attitude vs.Lifestyle

Specify yourobjectives

You alternatives represent the different courses of action you have to chose from.If you didnt have different alternatives you would not be facing a decision. Yourdecision can be no better than your best alternatives

e.g. Mother vs.Grandmother Create

imaginativealternatives

Alternatives can be several and can be sobering yet sometimes exciting.Consequences of each alternative will help to identify those that best meet yourobjectives

e.g. Moving locationUnderstand theconsequences

Objectives frequently conflict with one another and thus some must be sacri ficedfor another. In most complex decisions there is no one perfect alternative. Task isto chose among less than perfect possibi lities through priority setting

e.g. ContinuedMother vs.Grandmother Grapple with

your tradeoffs

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Good decision doesnt guarantee a good result Always focus your thinking where it matters most There is no harm in going back to the drawing board during problem

framing

Key takeaways

Clarify your uncertainties

Uncertainty makes choice farmore difficult

Effective decision makingrequires that you confrontuncertainty by judging thelikelihood of differentoutcomes and assessing theirpotential impact

E.g. Savings for an event vs.market crash

Evaluate your risk tolerance

Think hard about your risktolerance. Each decision withrisk may not bring the desiredconsequences

A conscious awareness ofyour tolerance will makedecision making smootherwith an alternative with theright level of risk for you

E.g. Savings in debt vs. equity

Consider linked decisions

Many important decisions arelinked over time; what isdecided today can influenceyour choices tomorrow

Key is to isolate and resolvenear-term issues whichgathering information aboutpossible issues that will ariselater

E.g. Tata Nano in Bengal vs.Sanand

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Managing decision making through changing circumstances and volatile environment

CASE

ProACT The eight keys to decision making II

Bills soundproofing business


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Decision Problem

Be creative about your problem definition: Its easy to state the problem in the most obvious wayor the first way it appearsEvery problem has a trigger the initiative force behind it. Create decisions for yourself beforeproblems arise. E.g. Conflict minerals vs. Supply chain improvements.

The way you state your problem frames your decision (SG)

Turn problems into opportunitiesWhat can I gain from this situation what are theopportunities? E.g. Carbon credits vs. stringent laws

Define decision problemAsk what triggered this decision? Assumption, trigger,connection between the trigger and the problem. E.g.Outsource vs. hire new software

Reexamine your problem definition as you goConsider several problem definitions in thebeginning also pause and reexamine the choice. E.g.Competitor grades vs. job

Problem Coverage Aimed at

Accurately posed problems

Creative problem definition

Gathering of data

Avoiding procrastination

Expansive and flexiblethought

Identifying multiple problems

Validation of possibilities


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If you dont know where you are going,any road will get you there."


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ObjectivesForm the basis for evaluating the available alternatives

Can be personal but need not be self-centered

Determine what information to seekHelp in explaining the choice to others

Determine a decisions importance and how much time and effort it deserves

Pitfalls

Step 1: Write down the concerns to be addressed through your decision

Step 2: Convert concerns into succinct objectives

Step 3: Separate ends from means to establish fundamental objectives.

Asking Why? e.g. Minimizing emission

Step 4: Clarify what you mean by each objective

Step 5: Test your objectives to see if they capture your interests

5-Steps to

identifyobjectives

Not taking enough time to specify clear objectives

Hard concerns over Soft concerns

Short Term Bias Getting it right takes effort

Narrow focus


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Profitability towards feasibility and sustenance


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In-Closing

Carry forwards

How to define the decision problemto solve the right problem HBP

Defining right Problems towards theright Objectives

Profitability

Next Session andPre-reads

Revision and Pop-Quizon Problem framing

How to define thedecision problem tosolve the right problemHBP

The Framing Challenge:What is the realproblem? HBP

Chapter 1 and 2 ofSmart Choices

Above and Beyond

Next Session andPre-reads

The framing challenge:What is the real

Problem? (HBSP ISBN -13:978-1-4221-0663-4,13 pages)

Group Assignment:Airline Case Due by5.00 P.M on Monday the21 st of October, 2013

Chapter 2 and 3 ofSmart Choices

Documents

Session 2 - 17th October, 2013wp