Shabelle Regions Deyr 2010/11 January 26, 2011 Information for
Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit
Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and
Cooperation SDC Slide 2 Field Coverage in Shabelle Regions: FS
field analysts in Lower and Middle Shabelle had access to field in
most districts, including Qoryaley, Kurtunwarey, Merca and Afgoye
in L/Sh and Balad, Jowhar and parts of Cadale districts in M/Sh. In
the areas that could not be accessed by the Field Analysts
directly, Food Security information was collected through
teleconferencing using enumerators with key informants/focus
groups. In addition, FS analysts travelled to most districts for
crop assessment, field observation, livestock and market
conditions. Nutrition information was obtained through partners and
key informants. Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field
Access and Field Data Locations Slide 3 Main Livelihood Groups
Sources of Food and Income Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of
Food and Income: Riverine livelihood: Primary sources of income of
poor: sale of crops, agricultural labour, and self employment.
Primary food sources of poor: Own crop and purchase. Primary
livelihood asset of poor: Agriculture land Agropastoral Livelihoods
(Agropastoral Maize/cattle and Agropastoral Sorghum/cattle)
Agropastoral Maize/Cattle: Primary sources of income of poor : crop
sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales,
self-employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials,
etc); Main sources of food of poor: own production(maize) and
purchase. Agropastoral Sorghum/Cattle: Primary sources of income of
poor: crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock
product sales, self- employment (fodder sales, firewood,
construction materials, etc); main sources of food : own
production(Sorghum) and purchase. Slide 4 Overall statement: Deyr
rains have failed in all livelihoods of the Shabelle regions.
Satellite imagery indicate cumulative rainfall (October-December)
of 0-20% of the normal. Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010
Rainfall Climate: Deyr 2010/2011 dekadal rainfall performances
Start of Season: started on time Temporal and Spatial Distribution:
Very low intensity of rains, with inadequate duration, frequency
and amount in both regions. Source: Slide 5 Climate Vegetation
Conditions (M.Shabelle) NDVI/RFE trend by district & land cover
Slide 6 Climate Vegetation Conditions (L.Shabelle) NDVI/RFE trend
by district & land cover Slide 7 Civil Security Situation: High
political tension among religious groups Prolonged political
confrontation in Mogadishu, and likely new conflicts at the border
of M. Shabelle with Hiran Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food
Security & Nutrition: Market disruption mainly in the districts
surrounding Mogadishu. Short term impact on urban areas and
transportation routes in conflict areas. Restriction of
humanitarian intervention - (suspension of World vision, Diakonia
and ADRA activities in southern Somalia) negatively impacting
access to food and basic services (IDPs health posts and feeding
centers ). High taxation by local authorities in the rural areas
that led many households to migrate to less controlled areas.
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Civil Insecurity Slide 8
Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates Shabelle Dhexe
(Middle) Cereal Production Estimates Districts Deyr 2010/11
Production in MT Total Cereal Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr 09/10 Deyr
2010/11 as % of Deyr PWA (1995-2009) Deyr 2010/11 as % of 5 year
average (2005-2009) MaizeSorghum Adan Yabaal --0--- Balcad 2,450-
70%68%98% Cadale --0--- Jowhar/Mahaday 2,800- 41%36%56% Shabelle
Dhexe (Middle) Deyr 2011 Total 5,2500 51%46%70% Shabelle Hoose
(Lower) Cereal Production Estimates Districts Deyr 2010/11
Production in MT Total Cereal Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr 09/10 Deyr
2010/11 as % of Deyr PWA (1995-2009) Deyr 2010/11 as % of 5 year
average (2005-2009) MaizeSorghum Afgooye 600 8%7%11% Baraawe --0---
Kurtunwaarey 2,200- 210%79%78% Marka 2,400- 90%27%66% Qoryoley
1,500- 50%27%39% Sablale 960- 100%133%249% Wanla Weyne --0---
Shabelle Hoose (Lower) Deyr 2011 Total 7,6600 34%23%38% Slide 9
Agriculture Cereal Production Trends in Middle Shabelle (1995-2010)
Deyr 10/11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 2010) Annual Cereal
Production Trends (1995 2010) Slide 10 Deyr 10/11 Cereal Production
Trends (1995 2010) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 2010)
Agriculture Cereal Production Trends in Lower Shabelle (1995-2010)
Slide 11 Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Trends in
Shabelle Regions Combined (1995-2010) Slide 12 Agriculture Regional
Contribution to Overall Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production in Southern
Somalia Shabelle regions collectively account for 72% of the total
cereal production (maize and sorghum) in southern Somalia. Slide 13
Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates(Mt) Middle
Shabelle DistrictSesameC/peaRiceTotal Jowhar4501203,0003,570
Balad18060-240 Cadale---- A/Yabal---- Total6301803,0003,810 Slide
14 Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates Lower
Shabelle DistrictSesameCowpeaTotal Afgoye15030180 Barawa000
K/warey2000802080 Marka40300340 Qorioley603595 Sablale10001501150
W/weyne000 Total3,2505953,845 Slide 15 Agriculture Differences
Between Riverine Areas in M and L. Shabelle Regions Lower
ShabelleMiddle Shabelle Good irrigation infrastructurePoor
irrigation infrastructure Banana plantationsRice plantation Good
gravity irrigationPumping irrigation Good market access (paved
road)Poor market access (rough road) Interventions from local
NGOsLimited interventions from local NGOs Slide 16 Agriculture Deyr
2010/11 Assessment Photos Good Riverine Rice Crop. Kallundi,
Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. 10 Poor Maize Crop. Marka, Lower
Shabelle, FSNAU, December 2010. Good sesame,Goosarow,Qoryoley,Lower
Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. 10 Significant drop down of Shabelle River
Level. Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. 10. Slide 17
Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow: Maize from Shabelle
flows to Mogadishu markets and then to Hiran and central regions
Slide 18 Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms
of Trade Trends in Cereal Prices: Jowhar (Middle Shabelle) Trends
in Cereal Prices: Afgoye, Marka and Qoryoley (Lower Shabelle)
Factors Influencing cereal prices: Poor Maize production - Riverine
Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods. High demand
on maize from neighbouring regions, including Banadir Slide 19
Agriculture Labour Rates & Availability Factors Influencing
Wage Labour Rates: High supply of casual labour (L. Shabelle in
particular), pushing down the wage rates. Agricultural activities
such as canal rehabilitation/road maintenance as a cash for work
Seasonality Middle Shabelle (Jowhar) Lower Shabelle (all main
markets) Slide 20 Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices
& Terms of Trade Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Jowhar,
Middle Shabelle (5 kg of maize/ daily wage rate) Regional Trends in
Terms of Trade: Lower Shabelle (6 kg of maize/ daily wage rate)
Factors affecting Terms of Trade: High cereal prices Decrease in
labour wage rates High supply of casual labour due to labour
migration from agro-pastoral areas following a very poor seasonal
performance. Slide 21 Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration
in Deyr 10/11 Livestock Poor performance of Deyr 10/11 season in
both regions resulting in below normal pasture and water Abnormal
migration to riverine areas of both regions. Slide 22 Livestock
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Conception
(Deyr 10/11) Calving/ki dding (Deyr 10/11) Milk production (Deyr
10/11) Expected calving/ kidding Jan Jun 11 Trends in Herd Size
(June 11) LivelihoodsLivestock Species M/L Shabelle Low for all
species in all livelihoods Medium for all species Poor for all
species Camel : Medium Cattle: Low- None Shoats: Low Shabelle Agro-
Pastoral All Species: Decreased trend for all species Slide 23
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: M/ Shabelle (Jowhar)
Livestock Trends in Goat Prices Regional Trends in Local Goat
Prices: L/ Shabelle (all markets) Factors Influencing livestock
prices: Poor body condition Less saleable animals in Middle
Shabelle Increased livestock supply into Lower Shabelle markets
after an influx of livestock from other livelihoods and regions
into riverine Low livestock demand after the end of Hajj period
Slide 24 Livestock Trends in Cattle Prices Regional Trends in Local
Cattle Prices (M/ Shabelle) - Jowhar Regional Trends in Local
Cattle Prices (L/Shabelle) All markets Factors Influencing
Livestock Prices: Poor body condition High livestock supply into
markets after an influx of livestock into riverine areas Reduced
sales at Garissa market due to poor pasture and shortage of water
along cattle trekking route to the market Low livestock demand
after Hajj period Slide 25 Regional Trends inTerms of Trade: M/
Shabelle (64kg of maize/goat) - Jawhar Regional Trends in Terms of
Trade: Cereal to Goat: L/ Shabelle ( 98 kg/head) all markets
Livestock Trends in Terms of Trade goat to cereal Factors
Influencing Goat to Maize ToT: High Cereal Prices Decreased
livestock prices due to poor body conditions and high supply. Slide
26 Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: M/ Shabelle (267kg of
maize/head of cattle) Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: L/
Shabelle ( 176 kg of maize/head of cattle) Livestock Trends in
Terms of Trade local quality cattle to cereal Factors Influencing
TOT (cattle to maize): High Cereal Prices Decreased livestock
prices due to poor body conditions, low demand and high supply.
Slide 27 Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Factors Affecting
Commercial Import Price increase (last six months) Disruption in
commercial imports and Bakkara market, due to persisting fighting
in Mogadishu and continuous piracy activities Increase in prices on
international markets Markets Slide 28 Nutrition Summary of
Nutrition Findings RegionNutrition Surveys (Oct Dec 10) Rapid MUAC
Screening (% 15% (23.0%;R=3) N=1650; 15 sites M. Shabelle
Agropastoral >15%25.0%; R=3) N=1650; 15 sites L. Shabelle
Riverine N=2200; 20 sites GAM MUAC of >15% (27.7%; R3) SAM MUAC
of >3% (8.7% R3) (FSNAU & partners, Dec10) L. Shabelle
Agropastoral N= 2200; 20 sites GAM MUAC of >15% (23.4%; R3),
SAMMUAC of >3% (7.4%; R3) (FSNAU & partners, Dec10)
Mogadishu/ Banadir N=1320; 6 District sites GAMMUAC of >15%
(29.2%; R3) SAMMUAC of >3% (12.0%; R3) (FSNAU & partners,
Dec10) High (>15%) and stable trends July- Dec 10, consistent
with 09 trends High (>20%) and increasing trends July-Dec 10,
higher than 09 trends High (>15%) and stable trends July- Dec
10, consistent with 09 trends High (>20%) and increasing trends
July-Dec 10, higher than 09 trends Very high (>20%) and
fluctuating trends in the last 6 months in Medina, Waberi, Hamar
weyne and Hamar Jabjab. Low levels (
