Simons CLFMA 2009

8/6/2019 Simons CLFMA 2009

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GLOBAL PRODUCTION,

CONSUMPTION ANDINTERNATIONAL MARKET OF

POULTRY MEAT AND EGGS

Dr PIET SIMONSDr PIET SIMONS

Past PresidentPast President

Worlds Poultry Science Association (WPSA)Worlds Poultry Science Association (WPSA)

PO Box 31PO Box 31

7360 AA Beekbergen7360 AA BeekbergenThe NetherlandsThe Netherlands

Poultry Seminar, Lonovala, IndiaPoultry Seminar, Lonovala, India

12 September 200912 September 2009


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nn Global poultry meatGlobal poultry meatnn Global egg productionGlobal egg production

nn Main poultry meat and egg producersMain poultry meat and egg producers(various countries)(various countries)

nn

Poultry meat and egg consumptionPoultry meat and egg consumptionnn CostCost--price poultry meat and eggs inprice poultry meat and eggs in

various countriesvarious countries

nn Global poultry marketGlobal poultry market

uu Driving forcesDriving forces

uu BarriersBarriersnn World trade poultry productsWorld trade poultry products

nn New poultry products in the futureNew poultry products in the future


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Global poultry meat market86.8 Million tonnes

nn Chicken: 85.6%Chicken: 85.6%

nn Turkey: 6.8%Turkey: 6.8%

nn Duck: 4.6%Duck: 4.6%

nn Goose and guinea fowl: 2.6%Goose and guinea fowl: 2.6%

Source: FAO 2007


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World poultry meat production 2007

0

10

20

30

4050

6070

80

90

100

Poultry Chicken Turkey Duck Goose and

guinea fowl

XMilliontonn

es

Source: FAO


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World poultry meat production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

XMillio

nMT

Source: FAO


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The changing contribution of the continents to global

poultry meat production (data in %, source FAO)

ContinentContinent 19701970 19901990 20072007

AfricaAfrica 4.04.0 5.05.0 4.24.2

AsiaAsia 17.917.9 24.224.2 36.036.0

EuropeEurope 28.128.1 20.620.6 15.515.5

USSRUSSR 7.17.1 8.08.0 --

N and C AmericaN and C America 36.236.2 31.331.3 27.527.5

S AmericaS America 5.85.8 9.59.5 15.615.6OceaniaOceania 0.90.9 1.21.2 1.21.2

WorldWorld 100.0100.0 100.0100.0 100.0100.0


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Poultry meat production in the

various continents over the years

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

AFRICA ASIA EUROPE LATIN AMERICA* NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006


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Leading countries in poultry

meat production

1970 2007

Country Production Share Country Production Share

(000 tonnes (%) (000 tonnes) (%)

USA 4,645 30.8 USA 19,481 22.4

USSR 1,071 7.1 China 16,034 18.5

China 971 6.4 EU 25 10,392 12.0

France 637 4.2 Brazil 8,908 10.3

World 15,101 100 World 86,800 100

Source: FAO


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Development of poultry meat production

in developed and developing countries

(million tonnes, source FAO)

YearYear WorldWorld DevelopedDeveloped

countriescountries

DevelopingDeveloping

countriescountries

Share (%) ofShare (%) ofdevelopingdevelopingcountriescountries

19701970 1515 1111 44 2626

19751975 1919 1313 55 2828

19801980 2626 1818 88 3131

19851985 3131 2121 1010 3333

19901990 4141 2626 1515 373719951995 5555 2828 2626 4848

20002000 6969 3333 3636 5353

20052005 8181 3737 4444 5555

Increase (%) 437 227 1,043 -


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Development of global meat production

(data in million ton, source FAO)

Year Beef

and veal

Pigmeat Poultry

meat

1970 38 36 15

1975 44 41 19

1980 46 53 26

1985 49 60 31

1990 53 70 41

1995 54 80 55

2000 57 90 69

2007 65 115 87

Increase (%) 71 219 480


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Further in 2007n Turkeys 5.9 million tonnes

u North America 3.4

u Europe 1.7n Ducks 4.0 million tonnes

u Asia 3.3

u China 2.75

n Goose and

guinea fowl 2.6 million tonnesu Asia 2.4

u China 2.3


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Chicken meat consumption 2008Country Kg/person/year

USA 46.1

Brazil 38.8

Argentina 30.7

Russia 19

EU 27 16.3

Japan 15

China 8.7

India 2.1

Rwanda 0.2

Source 2005: Executive guide WATT (2008/2009)

Source 2008: FAPRI


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Chicken meat consumption 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

40

45

50

USABrazil

Argentina

Mauritius

Russia

EU(27)

Japan

China Ind

ia

Rwanda

kg/person/year

Source: FAPRI (forecast)


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Production cost at farm level in

2007, outside EU (/kg LW)

P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

NL US TH BR

centperkgliveweight

chick feed energy other labour housing general manure

51,7

66,2

51,1

75,9


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World poultry meat consumption

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

kg/person/year


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World poultry productionGrowth forecast

YearYear

Poultry meatPoultry meat

(Million tonnes)(Million tonnes)

19951995 5656

20002000 7474

20152015 110110

20302030 140140


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Total cost farm + processing in

2007 (/kg carcass weight)


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NL G FR UK PL US TH BR

centperkgcarcassweigh

t

primary Slaughter


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Wings:

China

Legs:

Russia

Walking feet:

China

Breastmeat:Europe

Deboned

legmeat :Japan

Poultry meat: international trade

in meat cuts


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Brazil: number 1 exporter in

broilermeat

Source: Nutreco/Gira


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Advantages in Brazil

(also in Argentina?)n Good climate: low cost housing

n Low cost of labour

n Inland feed ingredients (corn, soybeans)

Combined with:

n Integrated production (contract)

n Big companies with good management

n

Modern equipmentn Innovative and marketdriven

n Low level of governmental regulations e.g. use ofMBM and growth promotors


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Future

In EU extra rules for animal welfare,In EU extra rules for animal welfare,environment and food safety:environment and food safety:

nn Regulations in EU:Regulations in EU:

uu Ban of meat and bone mealBan of meat and bone mealuu Ban on growth promoters (Ban on growth promoters (janjan 2006)2006)

nn Future Regulations:Future Regulations:

uu Lower stocking density (33 or 39 or 42 kg perLower stocking density (33 or 39 or 42 kg per

mm22, in 2010), in 2010)uu Reduction of salmonella (2011)Reduction of salmonella (2011)

uu Reduction ammonia emission (2010)Reduction ammonia emission (2010)


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World table egg production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2005 2006 2008 (exp)

Year

XMilliontonnes

FAO Database


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Egg production in the various

continents over the years

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

AFRICA ASIA EUROPE LATIN AMERICA* NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006


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Growth egg production

between 1960 and 2007

Fast inFast in AsiaAsia (now(now 38 million tonnes = 60.7%)38 million tonnes = 60.7%)

ChinaChina (now 25.8 million tonnes =(now 25.8 million tonnes = 41.3%;41.3%;1.2 million tonnes in 1961)1.2 million tonnes in 1961)

Medium slow inMedium slow in AfricaAfrica (2.3 million tonnes)(2.3 million tonnes)South AmericaSouth America (3.4 million tonnes)(3.4 million tonnes)

But continuous upwardsBut continuous upwardsSlow inSlow in EuropeEurope

OceaniaOceania

FAO Database, own calculations


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The five leading countries in hen

egg production

19701970 20072007

CountryCountry ProductionProduction ShareShare CountryCountry ProductionProduction ShareShare

(000 tonnes)(000 tonnes) (%)(%) (000 tonnes)(000 tonnes) (%)(%)

USAUSA 4,0534,053 20.720.7 ChinaChina 25,84625,846 41.341.3

USSRUSSR 2,2482,248 11.511.5 USAUSA 5,3085,308 8.58.5

JapanJapan 1,7661,766 9.09.0 IndiaIndia 2,6702,670 4.34.3

ChinaChina 1,5331,533 7.87.8 JapanJapan 2,5252,525 4.04.0

GermanyGermany 1,1621,162 5.95.9 RussiaRussia 2,0932,093 3.33.3WorldWorld 19,54019,540 100.0100.0 WorldWorld 62,57262,572 100.0100.0

Source: FAO


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Development of hen egg production in developed

and developing countries (000 tonnes, source FAO)

YearYear WorldWorld DevelopedDeveloped

countriescountries

DevelopingDeveloping

countriescountries

Share (%) ofShare (%) ofdevelopingdevelopingcountriescountries

19701970 2020 1515 55 2424

19751975 2222 1616 66 2727

19801980 2626 1818 88 3232

19851985 3131 1919 1212 3939

19901990 3535 1919 1616 4646

19951995 4343 1717 2525 595920002000 5151 1818 3333 6464

20052005 5959 1919 4040 6868

Increase (%) 195 29 758 -


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World egg consumption

8.0 kg eggs 130 eggs

Source: FAO

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

kg/person/year


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Egg consumption 2006

in selected countries

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Chi

na

Japa

n

Russia

USA

Argentin

aNL

Libya

Brazil

India

Banglad

esh

Co

ngoDRn

umbersofeggs/person

Source: International Egg Commission, annual review


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Production cost eggs 2006 outside EU,

farm level (ct/kg)


14,59,7 11,1

32,2

24,927,7

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

NL US BR

centperkg

manure

electricity

general

housing

labour

other

feed

pullet


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Production cost Eggs in 2003 outside

EU, Farm level (Ect/kg)

16 15

612 10 9

3837

3429

25 28

10-

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

EU PL UKR USA BR INDIA

centperkg

general

housing

labour

other

feed

hen



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Production cost eggs 2006 with China, farm

level (ct/kg)

Source: P. van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands

14,59,7 11,1

7,2

32,2

24,9

27,7 36,8

-10,0

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

NL US BR CH

Euro

centperkg

manure

electricity

general

housing

labour

other

feed

pullet


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Main trade flows in hen eggs

Main trade flow (> 100.000 ton):

Netherlands Germany

Malaysia Singapore

Minor trade flows

Poland Germany

USA Hongkong

India UAE

Source: ISPA


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Layer farming outside EU (e.g. Brazil, India)

nn Open housingOpen housing

nn CagesCages

nn Low cost feed, housing, labourLow cost feed, housing, labour


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Production cost outside EU

a) Circumstances

Low cost of inland feed-ingredients

Low cost of labour

b) Regulations:

- Space allowance: 300400 cm2 per hen

(optimum)- No regulations on debeaking / beaktrimming

- Use of meat and bonemeal (MBM)


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EU Housing systems in 2012


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P. van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands (2007)

More space, higher production

cost .

100 104114

122

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Cage 450cm2 Cage 550 cm2 Enriched cage Aviary

%


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Towards 2012 in EU

1. EU Directive welfare for laying hens

2003: Space allowance 550 cm2 per hen

2012: Enriched cages with 750 cm2

, layingnest, perch, litter

2. Beaktrimming before 10 days (ban in NL, G)

3. Salmonella control

3. Reduction on ammonia emission (IPPC etc)


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Cost increase EU 2006 -2012

(euro/kg eggs)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

NL G FR ES PL

eurocentperkgeggs

housing beaktrimming ammonia salmonella



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Expected Regional distribution of

the additional egg demand in 2015

Asia

Africa

Latin America

and Caribbean

North America

Europe

Oceania

Total: 12 million t

Source: Windhorst, WPSJ 64/3, 2008


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Global poultry marketDriving forces

nn Population growth and demographicsPopulation growth and demographics

nn Economic prosperityEconomic prosperity

nn Relative cost/price advantageRelative cost/price advantage

nn Health and nutritionHealth and nutrition

nn Consumer friendly productsConsumer friendly products

nn FastFast--food chainsfood chains


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Driving livestock revolutionnn ChinaChina 1.31.3 billionbillion

nn IndiaIndia 1.11.1 billionbillion

nn AfricaAfrica 1.01.0 billionbillion

nn 2007 (India):2007 (India):ChickenChicken meatmeat consumptionconsumption 1.9 kg/1.9 kg/yearyear

nn 2009 (2009 (AfricaAfrica,, estimatedestimated))EggEgg consumptionconsumption 4343 eggseggs//yearyear

per capper cap


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Global poultry market

Barriers

nn Trade barriers (high tarifs feedstuffs)Trade barriers (high tarifs feedstuffs)

nn Domestic monopoliesDomestic monopolies

nn Bilatereal agreementsBilatereal agreements

nn Standards (sanitation, hygiene, disease,Standards (sanitation, hygiene, disease,environment, GMO, residues, animalenvironment, GMO, residues, animal

welfare, increase price feedstuffs,welfare, increase price feedstuffs,money crisis, etc.).money crisis, etc.).


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Diseasesn Avian Influenza (HPAI)

especially danger H5N1


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Money Crisisn Crisis management

n Education

n Innovation

n Quality

n Branding


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Food safety

n Food safetymost important issue

Safety is the most important ingredientin our food. Europe must have thecapacity to ensure that we can deliverthis to our customers.

EU Commissioner for Food and Public Health


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However major limitations on the

expansion [of the poultry industry]

will be feed. T. Gillin, FAO 2001

According to Rabo 2008

International in 2012, 67 million kgextra needed to satisfy just meat

demand


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Development feed price in NL(LEI, euro/100 kg)

0

5

1015

20

25

30

35

40

jan-03

jan-04

jan-05

jan-06

jan-07

jan-08

jan-09

vlees leg

2007 2008 2009-1kw

Broilerfeed 30,8 36,5 33,3

Layer feed 23,5 28,1 23,6

Source: P.L.M. van Horne


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Consumption of gasoline and diesel compared

to bioethanol and biodiesel production 2005


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Production bioethanol and biodieselProduction 2005 < 2% of total use for transport

USA 44% (maize, soybean, sunflower)

Brazil 41% (sugercane, soybean)

EU 13% (rapeseed, sugarbeet)

S.E. Asia 2% (palm oil)

Ethanol 90%

Biodiesel 10%

Expected in 2035: 10x production 2005

This is


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Perentage of agricultural land needed to

replace 10% of transport fuel with biofuel


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Genetically modified foodsn Reduce grain wastage by over 40%

(less disease, weeds etc.)

n Will we consume GM foods?

n Will we eat products from animals fedGM feeds?


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Animal welfaren An issue that is gaining more and more

interest

n Battery cages to be banned by 2012 inEU

n Alternatives: enriched, aviary, deep

litter, free range, organic, grassn Also issue in Australia, USA etc.


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Environmental concernsn Manure disposal (N, P)

n Antibiotics EU (banned per January

2006) 10 000 million tonnes/year50% in livestock> 50% passed out (2500 million

tonnes)

n Noise and smelln Global warming potential (GWP)


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Poultry manure burning plant. May

2008 (18/ton)


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Global warming potential factors for major

gases using the IPPC (2001) climate change

values

Substance GWP 100 years; kg

CO2-equivalent

CO2 1

CH4 23

N2O 296

N2O-N 465

Defra project report ISO205, 2006


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Main burdens of animal products per

functional unit produced (1000 kgmeat, 20,000 eggs or 10,000 kg milk)GWP 100, kg 100 year CO2 equiv.

Sheep meat 17400

Beef 15800

Milk 10600

Pig meat 6350

Eggs 5540

Poultry meat 4580

Eggs organic 7000

cage 5250

Poultry meat organic 6680

non organic 4570

Defra project report ISO205, 2006


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World poultry productionFuture challenges

nn Continued sophistication of the industryContinued sophistication of the industry

nn Shifting from production to valueShifting from production to value--addingadding

and marketingand marketingnn Meeting consumer preferences/tastesMeeting consumer preferences/tastes

nn Competition for consumer expenditure for otherCompetition for consumer expenditure for other

goods and servicesgoods and services

nn Innovation should meet health, ethics andInnovation should meet health, ethics andenvironmentenvironment

nn Science based developmentScience based development


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Future (in practice)nn Poultry meatPoultry meat

uu More further processed productsMore further processed products

nn EggsEggsuu In medical science (purification proteins)In medical science (purification proteins)

uu To deliver antibodies to prevent diseaseTo deliver antibodies to prevent disease

uu

Functional food (enriched eggs)Functional food (enriched eggs)uu Home replacement mealsHome replacement meals


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Synopsisnn Poultry meat and egg production andPoultry meat and egg production and

consumption are continuously increasing andconsumption are continuously increasing andhave a broad acceptabilityhave a broad acceptability

nn Nutrition value of poultry products is highNutrition value of poultry products is high

nn Food security and safety must be assuredFood security and safety must be assured

nn Free market and trade are importantFree market and trade are important

nn

Poultry diseases, environment, energy,Poultry diseases, environment, energy,product quality and animal welfare needproduct quality and animal welfare needattentionattention


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Thanks for your attention

[email protected]@wur.nl

Documents

Simons CLFMA 2009