Singapore Property Weekly Issue 205

8/9/2019 Singapore Property Weekly Issue 205

1/14

Issue 205Copyright © 2011-2014 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.

http://www.propwise.sg/http://www.propwise.sg/


2/14

ContributeDo you have articles and insights and articles that you’d like to share

with thousands of readers interested in the Singapore property

market? Send them to us at [email protected] , and if they’re good

enough, we’ll publish them here, on our blog and even on Yahoo!

News.

AdvertiseWant to get your brand, product, service or property listing out to

thousands of Singapore property investors at a very reasonable

cost? Head over to www.propwise.sg/advertise/ to find out more.

CONTENTS

p2 Do Property Prices Always Recover and

Go Up Higher?

p7 Singapore Property News This Week

p12 Resale Property Transactions

(April 8 – April 14 )

Welcome to the 205th edition of the

Singapore Property Weekly .

Hope you like it!

Mr. Propwise

FROM THE

EDITOR

mailto:[email protected]://www.propwise.sg/advertise/http://www.propwise.sg/advertise/mailto:[email protected]


3/14

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 205

Page | 2Back to Contents

By Property Soul (Guest Contributor)

Recently, there were reports on units in high-

end condominium projects being sold at a big

loss. As property buyers, we often hear from

developers and property agents that propertyprices will always go up in the long run.

Does the property market always manage to

recover, with prices going higher than the

previous peak? Is it true that any time is a

good time to buy? Below is an abstract from

my book No B.S. Guide to Property

Investment about one of my real-life property

stories and the lessons learned.

Do Property Prices Always Recover and Go Up Higher?

http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/http://www.propertyclubsg.com/resources/


4/14



Bought a unit in a seafront condominium

In 2003, I bought a unit in a seafront

condominium. When it was under renovation,

two neighbors staying at the units above minedropped by for a chat. They both bought their

place first-hand from the developer.

“Do you mind telling us what price you paid?”

I told them the amount.

“Oh, that was more or less what we paid for last time.”

“Which year did you buy your place?”

“It was 1984. Do you know about their launch

at that time?”

“I don’t know. I was still in primary school in

1984.”

I did a search of the old newspapers. I found

that the condominium was selling in a

depressed market that year. My two

neighbors weren’t overpaying at all.

It was amazing that, almost twenty years

later, despite inflation and after all the upsand downs in the economy, we were back to

the launch price!

Who said prices can’t go back twenty years?

They don’t just go back, they can even go

back to where they started from.

Prices can’t drop lower?

Between 2002 and 2004, my strategy was to

buy rental properties at fifteen percent lower

than the last transacted price. In that way, I

still had a fifteen percent buffer in case prices

dropped further. And once the marketrecovered, I could sell them at any price and

still make a profit.

I did make money. But I was wrong.


5/14



How could I know that prices couldn’t drop

another fifteen or twenty percent?

Many people who bought in 1995 held on to

their overpriced purchase. They struggledthrough the recession in 2001, SARS in 2003,

the downturn in 2004… Every time when they

thought the bad days were finally over, a

more severe storm came.

J. Anthony Boeckh, author of The Great

Inflation, told what happened in some USstates after the sub-prime crisis:“In general,

prices nationally have dropped back to the

level of the cost of building a new dwelling,

which includes land acquisition, building

costs, and profit for the builder.”

Will exponential growth happen again?

Prices of landed properties in Singapore have

increased 75 to 100 times in the last fifty

years. But can they rise at the same rate in

the next fifty years?

I doubt so.

In the 1960s, Singapore’s infrastructure,

economy and social stability were verydifferent from today. The ease of borrowing

and the pool of eligible buyers were also very

limited.

In the last fifty years, Singapore has evolved

from an emerging country to a developed

nation. It is with substantial improvement in

our economy and living standard, coupled

with easy financing, that housing prices can

climb to where they are today.

Markets that achieved high growth in the past

cannot guarantee continued growth. On thecontrary, it could imply that the boom may

soon be over. Once the fundamentals are

changed, the trend will be reversed.


6/14



There are many countries that used to have a

strong economy. Then they experienced

recession. Some managed to recover and

grow again while others have remained weak

since.

Although history often repeats itself, there are

also things in history that, once they are

gone, are gone forever.

When, or will it ever, recover?

There is a saying that, in each property cycle,

prices always surpass the previous peak to

reach an all-time high. This happened several

times in the history of the Singapore property

market. But the question is: When?

The commodity bull market which started inthe early 1930s was surpassed only by the

bull market in the 1970s. Just look at gold,

there was a very long period of depressed

prices after its collapse in 1980.

Amid spiraling property prices in the 1980s,

many Japanese believed they would never be

able to afford it if they didn’t buy now. Many

borrowed huge housing loans that could only

be paid off by their grandchildren. The bubble

that burst in the late 1980s started two lost

decades in Japan.

This is how Marc Faber described a major

market collapse, as compared to a minor correction:

Major manias occur very infrequently. Once

they burst, they shake an entire generation’s

faith in the object of speculation ... while mini

manias may take place every few years ... a

major mania will represent the final stage, or

culmination, of a long-term secular up-trend

which may have lasted 10 to 25 years.


7/14



What are the lessons learned?

Only invest if you have the answers for the

following questions:

• Can you see any upside in the fundamentalsin the foreseeable future?

• How long do you think you can wait to see

profit from your property investment?

• Do you have the holding power to wait till

the next Bull Run?

• Will you see a recovery before your

retirement (and at least live to see that

happen)?

The next time you want to ask when a good

time to buy is, take the hint from investor Jim

Rogers:

Bottoms in the investment world don’t end

with four-year lows. They end with 10- or 15-

year lows. You do not buy unless it is cheap

and unless you see positive change coming

within the next 2 to 3 years.

Can you see positive or negative changes

coming?

By guest contributor Property Soul, a

successful property investor, blogger , and

author of the No B.S. Guide to Property

Investment

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY I 205

http://propertysoul.com/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://propertysoul.com/


8/14


Singapore Property This Week


Residential

G C B p u t u p f o r a u c t i o n f o r $ 20 m

A Good Class Bungalow (GCB) that is located

at Binjai Rise has been put up for auction. Its

indicative price is $20 million, or $1,174 psf.

The site has a gross floor area of 13,378 sq

ft. It is currently partially completed, and is

expected to have a swimming pool. To

complete the construction, it is expected that

it will cost another $1 million to $2 million; to

tear down the current structures, it may cost

up to $6 million, said the Business Times.

According to industry experts, mortgagee

sales of GCBs like this are rare. In instances

where they are placed for auction, GCBs are

typically put up for sale by owners, not

mortgagees. Industry experts added that

since 2014, there have been fewer GCB

auction sales due to the implementation of

the total debt servicing ratio framework. The

framework, which acts as a cooling measure,

had affected demand in the GCB market, said

experts. According to William Wong from

RealStar Premier Group, the site at Binjai

Rise is competitively priced, however its

proximity to the expressway may reduce its

appeal.

(Source: Business Times)

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY I 205


9/14



P r i v at e h o m e p r i c e s f a ll b y 1 % i n Q 1

In the first quarter, private home prices have

fallen by 1 percent, according to the Business

Times. Rents have also fallen by 1.7 percent.

Data from the Urban Redevelopment

Authority (URA) showed that the fall in prices

and rents in the private residential property

market has persisted for six consecutive

quarters. In Q1, prices of non-landed

properties fell by 0.4 percent in the corecentral region, 1.7 percent in the rest of

central region and 1.1 percent in the outside

central region, according to URA’s data. On

the other hand, a 0.9 percent fall was

observed in prices of landed properties.

Compared to the previous quarter, Q1 rentsof non-landed homes have fallen by 1.9

percent in the core central region, 1.8 percent

in the outside central region and 1.6 percent

in the rest of central region. Chia Siew Chuin

from Colliers International said that

developers have offered discounts in an

attempt to attract more buyers. For example,

GuocoLand offered discounts of up to 19percent for Sims Urban Oasis, while a 10

percent discount was offered to Marine Blue

buyers by CapitaLand. Chia added that she

believes private home prices will continue to

fall by about 5 to 8 percent this year. Nicholas

Mak from SLP International said that a 4 to 7

percent fall in overall rent is expected this

year. He believes that rents in the rest of

central region and outside central region are

falling faster than in previous quarters due to

an increase in supply of private and HDB

housing units for lease.




10/14



Q 1 r e s a l e f l a t p r i c e i n d e x f e l l b y 1 p e r c e n t

quart er-on-quart er

In Q1 this year, the HDB resale flat price

index has fallen by 1 percent, quarter-on-

quarter. According to the Business Times, the

fall in prices is slower than the previous

quarter, and is the smallest recorded quarter-

on-quarter decline for the index since Q3

2013. As the supply of Build-to-order (BTO)

flats tapers, market experts believe that

buyers may flock back to the resale market.

This year, HDB is expected to launch 16,900

BTO flats, which is fewer than the 22,455

BTO flats launched last year and the 25,139

BTO units launched in 2013. Not only so,

there are 10.8 percent fewer applications for resale HDB flats in the first quarter of this

year, compared to the previous quarter, said

the Business Times. Eugene Lim from ERA

Realty believes that this year there will be

more resale flat deals. He predicts that

18,000 to 20,000 resale flats would change

hands by the end of the year. Market experts

believe that there would be a 3.5 percent to 5

percent drop in HDB resale prices this year.This is less than the 6 percent fall in the price

index last year.


Commercial

Q1 Grade A of f ice vacancy rat es f a l l by 0. 3

percent q uart er-on-quart er

According to Cushman and Wakefield,

vacancy rates for Grade A office spaces have

fallen by 0.3 percent quarter and quarter to

3.9 percent in Q1 this year. Data from URAshowed that overall the vacancy rates of

office spaces have remained unchanged at

10.2 percent this year.



11/14



Christine Li from Cushman and Wakefield

added that Grade A office rents are expected

to increase by 5 to 6 percent this year as

vacancy rates will be around 3 percent by the

end of the year. Chia Siew Chuin fromColliers International added that the average

monthly gross rent for Premium Grade

spaces in Raffles Place/New Downtown may

increase by about 5 to 10 percent this year.

However, rents in the CBD area for Grade A

and B offices may increase by about 5percent for the entire year. Chia said that

despite the low transaction volumes in the

office market, there is still growing interest in

office properties. However Li believes that

retail rental market may remain weak due to

higher business costs and a smaller influx of

tourists.


Q 1 i n d u s tr ia l p r ic es i n c reas e d b y 0 .7%

w hile rent s increased by 0. 4%

According to the Business Times, prices and

rentals of industrial space have increased.

However this increase is slowing down due to

an increase in supply. In Q1 this year, the

overall prices of industrial spaces have

increased by 0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter

and rents have increased by 0.4 percent.

However, occupancy rates have fallen by 0.2

percent. According to Chia Siew Chuin from

Colliers International, in Q1, prices in the

multiple-user factory market have increased

by 0.1 percent from the previous quarter. The

Business Times added that the stabilising in

prices could be due to the festivities inFebruary and may also be due to the Total

Debt Servicing Ratio framework.



12/14



By the end of February this year, about 1,700

units of uncompleted multiple-user

developments were still available for sale,

according to statistics by JTC. Chia believes

that the overall industrial prices may reduceby 3 percent this year. However, rents for

business parks and independent high-spec

buildings are expected to increase by 3

percent and 6.5 percent in 2015 respectively,

said market experts.



http://propertymarketinsights.com/


13/14



Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Apr 8 – Apr 14

Postal

DistrictProject Name

Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

3 ALEXIS 657 1,140,000 1,736 FH

3 ALESSANDREA 1,001 1,440,000 1,438 FH

4 THE OCEANFRONT @ SENTOSA COVE 1,894 2,698,000 1,424 99

4 THE INTERLACE 2,099 2,700,000 1,286 99

8 CITY SQUARE RESIDENCES 1,206 1,655,000 1,373 FH

9 RIVERGATE 1,776 3,450,000 1,943 FH

9 THE COSMOPOLITAN 1,141 2,150,000 1,884 FH

9 ASPEN HEIGHTS 1,130 1,690,000 1,495 999

9 CAVENAGH HOUSE 1,701 2,150,000 1,264 FH

10 GOODWOOD RESIDENCE 2,508 6,150,000 2,452 FH

10 SOMMERVILLE GRANDEUR 1,884 2,850,000 1,513 FH

10 THE HORIZON 1,561 2,318,000 1,485 FH

10 VALLEY PARK 1,216 1,680,000 1,381 999

10 JERVOIS MEADOWS 1,216 1,600,000 1,315 FH

10 MUTIARA CREST 3,983 4,888,000 1,227 FH

10 CASABELLA 3,003 3,180,000 1,059 FH

11 AMARYLLIS VILLE 958 1,470,000 1,534 99

11 AMANINDA 1,249 1,810,000 1,450 FH

11 MONTEBLEU 1,141 1,580,000 1,385 FH

11 NOVENA HILL 710 970,000 1,365 FH

12 DE ROYALE 1,281 1,565,000 1,222 FH

12 KEMAMAN POINT 861 980,000 1,138 FH

13 8@WOODLEIGH 1,098 1,330,000 1,211 99

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

14 LE CRESCENDO 861 965,000 1,121 FH

14 WINDY HEIGHTS 2,476 2,120,000 856 FH

15 BELLA CASITA 506 800,000 1,581 FH

15 SUITES @ AMBER 635 965,000 1,520 FH

15 TIERRA VUE 1,227 1,700,000 1,385 FH

15 PEBBLE BAY 3,057 4,150,000 1,358 99

15 HAIG COURT 1,076 1,360,000 1,263 FH

15 AMBER PARK 1,744 2,140,000 1,227 FH

15 ST PATRICK'S RESIDENCES 2,562 2,900,000 1,132 FH

15 MABELLE 883 970,000 1,099 FH

15 PALM VISTA 990 1,000,000 1,010 FH

15 VILLA MARINA 1,281 1,200,000 937 99

16 OPTIMA @ TANAH MERAH 1,173 1,300,000 1,108 99

16 WATERFRONT WAVES 1,292 1,360,000 1,053 99

16 VILLAS LAGUNA 1,496 1,320,000 882 FH

17 LOYANG VALLEY 3,251 1,780,000 548 99

18 RIS GRANDEUR 1,539 1,400,000 910 FH

19 SUNGLADE 1,109 1,130,000 1,019 99

19 HOUGANG GREEN 764 700,000 916 99

19 REGENTVILLE 980 805,000 822 99

20 BISHAN 8 1,163 1,300,000 1,118 99

20 BISHAN 8 1,163 1,280,000 1,101 99

21 TERRENE AT BUKIT TIMAH 1,033 1,385,000 1,340 999



14/14



NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale propertytransactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority.Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchasersigns an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

21 SPRINGDALE CONDOMINIUM 1,163 1,238,000 1,065 999

21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,722 1,830,000 1,063 FH

21 THE RAINTREE 1,302 1,260,000 967 99

22 LAKEHOLMZ 1,507 1,370,000 909 99

22 PARC VISTA 1,302 1,055,000 810 99

23 HILLINGTON GREEN 990 1,030,000 1,040 999

23 MERA WOODS 1,345 1,360,000 1,011 999

23 HAZEL PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,335 1,210,000 907 999

23 REGENT HEIGHTS 1,023 860,000 841 99

23 NORTHVALE 1,087 850,000 782 99

23 PALM GARDENS 1,216 890,000 732 99

23 HILLTOP GROVE 1,862 1,160,000 623 99

27 CANBERRA RESIDENCES 1,141 1,210,000 1,060 99

27 THE ESTUARY 1,302 1,018,000 782 99
http://www.anthonyrobbinssg.com/propwise

Documents

Singapore Property Weekly Issue 205