Slides- Press Conference - 10 March 2016

8/19/2019 Slides- Press Conference - 10 March 2016

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U.S Voter Survey | 2

Methodology

Online survey of registered U.S. voters

Survey was conducted February 23 – March 3, 2016 Completed 1,950 interviews

Oversamples were collected among the following groups:

n=642; MoE ± 3.87 White men with less than a 4 year college degree.

n=257; MoE ± 6.11 White men with less than a 4 year college degree who are less

likely to vote.

n=277; MoE ± 5.89 White women with less than a 4 year college degree who are less

likely to vote.

n=337; MoE ± 5.34 Persons age 18-34 years old (Millennials) who are less likely to

vote.

Sample was weighted to a nationally representative sample of 1,200n MoE ± 2.83%

Please note that due to rounding, some

percentages may not add up to exactly 100%.


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TPP Initial Vote

Do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal?

Strongly 3%Strongly 9%

Somewhat 12%

Somewhat 13%

Support15%

Oppose

22%Undecided

11%

Don't know

enough

51%

Support Oppose Not sure Don't know enough


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The Trans-Pacific Partnership, also known as the TPP, is a trade agreement involving the

United States, Canada, Japan, Mexico, Australia, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand,

Chile, Singapore, and Brunei. The agreement was designed to deepen economic tiesbetween the 12 member nations by removing tariffs and standardizing regulations in

order to make it easier for the countries to trade with each other. Congress has to vote to

approve the agreement without amendment.

Supporters of the TPP say the agreement will help the American economy and create

jobs by leveling the playing field for American medium and small businesses on theglobal stage. Supporters also say the agreement will increase labor standards and

environmental protections in member nations which will lead to improved wages,

economic growth, and access to other markets.

Opponents of the TPP say that the agreement will strip the United States of valuable jobs

and manufacturing capabilities and it will open the door for more foreign workers toenter the American job market without any restraints. The TPP will benefit entrenched

global corporations but hurt working Americans, small businesses and startups. It will

also subject us to laws and regulations written by an international panel. This is a direct

threat to our self-government and to American sovereignty.

TPP Information


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TPP Informed Vote

Now that you’ve heard more, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership tradedeal?

Strongly

3%

Strongly

9%

Somewhat

12%

Somewhat

13%

Support

15%

Oppose

22%

Undecided11%

Don't

know

enough

51%

Support Oppose Not sure Don't know enough

Strongly

5%

Strongly

17%

Somewhat27%

Somewhat

28%

Support

32%

Oppose45%

Undecided

23%

Support Oppose Not sure

Initial Vote Informed Vote


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TPP Informed Vote by Party

Now that you’ve heard more, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal?

32%

42%

39%

29%

28%

23%

23%

27%

17%

45%

58%

37%

44%

54%

Overall

Decided vote

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

Support (Don't know) Oppose


7/40U.S Voter Survey | 7

TPP Informed Vote by Key Demographics


32%

42%

24%

27%

19%

33%

23%

21%

32%

36%

34%

45%

58%

54%

41%

45%

33%

Overall

Decided vote


White/Non-College/Men (16%)

White/Non-College/Less Likely

Voter/Men (4%)


Voter/Women (6%)

Millennials/Less Likely Voter

(12%)



TPP After Arguments Vote by Party


22%

29%

30%

19%

15%

25%

27%

29%

18%

53%

71%

44%

52%

66%

Overall

Decided vote

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)




TPP After Arguments Vote by Key Demographics


22%

29%

15%

17%

10%

24%

25%

22%

36%

34%

39%

53%

71%

63%

47%

56%

37%

Overall

Decided vote




Voter/Men (4%)


Voter/Women (6%)


(12%)



Anti-TPP President Support by Party

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for President who promises to put a stop tothe Trans-Pacific Partnership, and enact trade policies that put U.S. jobs first?

54%

76%

50%

50%

64%

29%

32%

32%

20%

17%

24%

18%

19%

15%

Overall

Decided vote

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

More Likely (Don't know) Less Likely



Anti-TPP Congressional Support by Party

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for U.S. Congress who promises to put astop to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and enact trade policies that put U.S. jobs first?

58%

79%

53%

54%

69%

27%

30%

30%

18%

15%

21%

17%

16%

12%

Overall

Decided vote

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

More Likely (Don't know) Less Likely



Lame Duck TPP Support by Party

Do you support or oppose Congress voting on the TPP in a special session of Congress?

17%

23%

23%

14%

16%

25%

27%

27%

21%

57%

77%

51%

59%

63%

Overall

Decided vote

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)




Lame Duck Congressional Vote by Party

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for U.S. Congress who committed toopposing any trade deals in a special after-the-election session of Congress?

48%

69%

42%

47%

56%

30%

33%

32%

24%

22%

31%

24%

21%

21%

Overall

Decided vote

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

More likely (Don't know) Less likely


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Lame Duck Congressional Vote by Party

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for U.S. Congress who committed toopposing any trade deals in a special after-the-election session of Congress?

48%

69%

42%

47%

56%

30%

33%

32%

24%

22%

31%

24%

21%

21%

Overall

Decided vote

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

More likely (Don't know) Less likely


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International Trade Attitudes

For each of the following statements, please indicate whether you agree or disagree.

77%

75%

74%

55%

12%

12%

12%

17%

11%

13%

14%

28%

Agree Don't Know DisagreeU.S. businesses struggling to find workers

should be working to attract and train

Americans by raising wages or improving

working conditions rather than bringing in

workers from outside the country who will

work for less.

Our economic and trade policies should

always put American needs and American

jobs first, before the needs of other

countries or big corporations.

While increasing international trade has led

to cheaper goods, it doesn’t matter how

cheap they are if I don’t have a good paying job.

Increasing international trade is good for

the U.S. economy. It makes products like

smartphones, TVs, and clothing cheaper for

U.S. consumers, and it gives U.S. companies

access to more foreign markets to sell our

products.


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International Trade Attitudes

For each of the following statements, please indicate whether you agree or disagree.

68%

64%

47%

15%

16%

19%

17%

20%

35%

Agree Don't Know DisagreeOne of the reasons we have such cheap goods, particularlycheap clothes, is because the workers making them in mostly

Asian countries, many being children, are paid slave-like wages

in harsh working conditions without any worker protections at

all. We should punish those countries with tariffs on those

imports which would raise the cost of those goods until there

are fair working conditions for all comparable to the United

States. Even though we might pay more for clothes, we wouldbe protecting our American values.

The real economic division in America is between the elites

who see themselves as global citizens of the world and the

mainstream of America which says put America's economic

interest first and the needs of the ordinary American people

above all.

International trade has helped improve foreign relations with

other countries and has led to increased cooperation in the

international community.


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Crony Capitalism by Party

72%

70%

71%

76%

14%

15%

15%

10%

14%

14%

15%

15%

Overall

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

Agree (Don't know) Disagree

The same political elite who have been rigging the political process in Washington arethe same ones that have been rigging trade deals that hurt Americans, but benefit

themselves.


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Crony Capitalism by Key Demographics

72%

72%

70%

76%

55%

14%

5%

10%

7%

15%

14%

23%

20%

18%

30%

Overall



White/Non-College/Less LikelyVoter/Men (4%)


Voter/Women (6%)


(12%)

The same political elite who have been rigging the political process in Washington arethe same ones that have been rigging trade deals that hurt Americans, but benefit

themselves.


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U.S. Right Direction/Wrong Track

Right Direction

29%

Wrong Track

64%

(Don't Know)

7%


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American Exceptionalism

42% 34% 7% 13% 4%

Strongly

Agree

Somewhat

Agree

Don't

know

Somewhat

Disagree

Strongly

Disagree

The United States is not an ordinary nation; America stands apart from all

other countries and we should protect our unique character in the world.


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The American Dream

46%

37%

16%

Better

Worse

Don't know

23%

50%

27%

Better

Worse

Don't know

Do you think you are better off financially or worseoff financially than your parents were when they

were your age?

Looking to the future, do you think most childrenin this country will grow up to be better off or

worse off than their parents?


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Unequal Opportunity

83%

10%

7%

There are different rules for the well

connected and people with money

Everyone more or less plays by the same

rules to get ahead

Don't know

In this country right now, do you think…


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Legacy of Free Trade

46%

18%

9%

27%

More of a benefit to

other countries

Equally beneficial to

all


the U.S.

Don't know

Over the last two decades do you believe the free trade agreements signed by theUnited States with other countries were:

63%

25%

12%


other countries

Equally beneficial to

all


the U.S.


24/40


25/40


Trade Priorities

72%

16%

12%

Protecting American jobs

and industries from being

outsourced to other

countries

Allowing free trade so you

can buy products at low

prices no matter what

country they come from

Don't know

Which is more important to you?

82%

18%

Protecting American jobs

and industries from being

outsourced to othercountries

Allowing free trade so you

can buy products at low

prices no matter what

country they come from


26/40


Decline of America by Party

Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree.

68%

51%

67%

89%

7%

10%

8%

3%

25%

40%

25%

9%

Overall

Democrat (32%)

Independent (41%)

Republican (27%)

Agree (Don't know) DisagreeAmerica is in a state of decline

l f b h


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Decline of America by Key Demographics

Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree.

68%

72%

70%

76%

55%

7%

5%

10%

7%

15%

25%

23%

20%

18%

30%

Overall




Voter/Men (4%)


Voter/Women (6%)


(12%)

America is in a state of decline


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Issue Importance

Indicate whether each one is an important problem facing the country today. On this scale,0 is not at all an important problem and 10 is an extremely important problem.

73%

72%

72%

69%

70%

71%

69%

67%

62%

62%

57%

54%

44%

46%

39%

8.52

8.30

8.25

8.24

8.24

8.23

8.20

8.07

7.85

7.82

7.36

7.26

7.06

6.57

6.13

Government ethics and corruption

Cuts to Social Security and Medicare

Jobs and unemployment

The budget deficit and the national debt

Terrorism attacks on American soil

Fighting ISIS and Al-Qaeda terrorism

American jobs moving overseas*

National security and defense

Increasing crime and violence

Stagnation of lower-to-middle-income wages

Income inequality*

Increasing border security and controlling immigration

Trade deals with other countries*

Climate change

Social issues like abortion and same sex marriage

8-10 Important Problem Mean


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F i P li d S i I C i d


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Foreign Policy and Security Issues Continued

Which of the following comes closes to your opinion?

53%

37%

10%

The U.S. is only one of

several leading

military powers

The U.S. is the No. 1

military power in the

world

Don't know

59%

41%

The U.S. is only one of

several leading

military powers

The U.S. is the No.1

military power in the

world

F i P li d S i I C i d


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Do you feel that it’s important for the United States to be the No. 1 military

power in the world, or do you think that being No. 1 is not that importantas long as the U.S. is among the leading military powers?

54%

37%

9%

Important for U.S. to

be No. 1 military

power in the world

Not important as long

as the U.S. is among

the leading military

powers

Don't know

59%

41%

Important for U.S. to

be No. 1 military

power in the world

Not important as longas the U.S. is among

the leading military

powers

F i P li d S it I C ti d


32/40



Several weeks ago two naval patrol boats were seized by the Iranian Republican Guard.

Secretary John Kerry eventually negotiated their released, but not before footage ofAmerican soldiers on their knees, on their own vessels, with guns pointed at their heads

was shown worldwide. Which of the following comes closest to your opinion?

54%

23%

22%

This has become the

symbol of American

humiliation.

This is proof that our

improving relations with

Iran.

Don't know

70%

30%

This has become

the symbol of American

humiliation.

This is proof that

our improving

relations with Iran.



33/40



69%

82%

17% 15%

18%

Overall

Decided vote


Do you agree or disagree with the following statement – Just recently it was reportedthat the United States must rely on Russian space rockets to put America’s most

sensitive spy and defense satellites into space. This is a frightening national security

consequence for America having crippled our own space program.



34/40



67%

79%

16% 18%

21%

Overall

Decided vote


Do you agree or disagree with the following statement – Our immigration policies arebeing written by the same corporate elite that want cheap labor anywhere they can

find it. They send our jobs and factories overseas and at the same time want to bring

lower-paid immigrant labor into our country.

Chi


35/40


China

Regarding China, do you think that America can rely on China as a strong economic

partner who want the United States to be safe and secure, or do you think China isactively trying to undermine the United States to advance its own economic and

national interests?

66%

13%

21%

China is trying to

undermine U.S.

Partner we can

rely on

Don't know

84%

16%

China is trying to

undermine U.S.

Partner we can

rely on

Chi C ti d


36/40


China Continued

Given the recent news reports about China’s military build-up, building artificial islands

in key Pacific trade routes, cyber hacking, currency manipulation and trade policies,which of the following statements do you most agree with:

47%

28%

10%

15%

Compromising

security

Totally ignoring

threats

Successfully managed

relationship

Don’t know

55%

33%

12%

Compromising

security

Totally ignoring

threats

Successfully managed

relationship

Chi C ti d


37/40


China Continued

There have been many news reports over the past few years about the cyber hacking

by China of sensitive and confidential United States military and financial data andelectrical power grids. In addition, millions of American government workers have had

their personal confidential files hacked and taken by the Chinese. There are claims that

China has also hacked into the confidential health records of millions of Americans.

How would you regard the way the Obama administration is handling this issue?

53%

26%

21%

Obama admin. needs

to be more aggressive

Obama admin.

correctly taking action

Don't know

67%

33%

Obama admin.

needs to be

more aggressive

Obama admin.

correctly taking

action

Alienation


38/40


Alienation

47%

47%

40%

37%

34%

35%

36%

35%

7%

6%

7%

11%

10%

9%

13%

13%

3%

3%

5%

4%

81% / 12%

82% / 12%

The power of ordinary people to control our

country is getting weaker every day.

Political leaders are more interested in protecting

their power and privilege than doing what is right

for the American people.

The U.S. has a two-track economy, where most

Americans struggle every day, where good jobs

are hard to find, and where the huge

corporations get all the rewards.

Powerful interests from Wall Street banks to

corporations, unions and political interest groups

have used campaign and lobbying money to rig

the system for themselves.

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

Don'tKnow

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree Agree/Disagree

72% / 18%

75% / 18%

Alienation


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Alienation

25%

5%

5%

4%

37%

14%

22%

19%

7%

6%

7%

7%

21%

32%

36%

33%

11%

43%

31%

37%

People like me don’t really have much say about

how the government works.

Politicians really care about people like me.

I believe the U.S. government is working for the

people’s best interests.

Politicians really care about the economic

suffering of ordinary Americans.

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

Don'tKnow

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree Agree/Disagree

23% / 70%

61% / 32%

26% / 67%

19% / 75%

Key Findings


40/40

Key Findings

This issue of American Trade Policy has moved from a minor issue in the

thinking of American voters to becoming a central issue as it relates not only

to trade but to economic anxieties.

While TPP is essentially unknown to the American electorate, once informed

about it they move very quickly and strongly against it.

Surprisingly, the voters of the party traditionally strongest for free trade, the

Republican party, have become the most consistent and strongest opponentsto trade policy and with those attitudes.

It appears that the trade issue and economic nationalism have become a

concrete nexus issue for the electorate. Into that issue seems to be flowing

the concerns of economic anxiety, national security and particularly the highalienation of the American people.

Documents

Slides- Press Conference - 10 March 2016