Social science for the Integrated Assessment of

environmental risks and problems.

DAY 2: robust science to supportdecisions on large scale risks

Dr. J. David Tàbara Institute of Environmental Science and Technology

Autonomous University of Barcelonawww.uab.cat/icta

Earthquakes

• According to long-term records (since about 1900), we can expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9 on the Richter scale) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year

• The number of earthquakes and tsunamis resulting in fatalities has increased approximately in proportion to global populations

• The growth of giant urban cities near regions of known seismic hazard is a new experiment for life on the Earth

Sources: NEIC 2003; USGS 2004; UNEP 2005 (GEO 2004/2005)

Bam, Iran: City destroyed by earthquake

A 6.6 magnitude earthquake struck southeastern Iran on 26 December 2003, killing over 40 000 people, injuring 16 000, leaving 70 000 homeless and destroying much of the city of Bam, the earthquake’s epicenter

In this example, high population densities are also associated with areas with active seismic activity

Mapping seismic risk in Africa

Forecasting technique: Scenario making

• A useful tool to think about could happen in order to know what to do now

• Key question: WHAT IF...

• Many types of scenarios and sources of knowledge to produce them: - QUANTITATIVE: per ex., using models- QUALITATIVE: per ex., using narratives

Usually we need both. • Should cover all the possibilities / futures

EU Green Paper on Adaptation

Com (2007) 354 Final (29.6.07)

scenario A1, IPPC

Practice of scenario making: Think of a possibility of a large Earthquake in the

next 5 years in Ashgabat and discuss...

1. What do you think could be the infrastructures and buildings which could be most affected?

2. What do you think could be the infrastructures that if affected, could most negatively impact the normal functioning of the city of Ashgabat?

3. What type of experts, tools and knowledge would you need to know who and what is most at risk and what to do?.

4. Suggest a feasible strategy to prevent large-scale losses in case such event happens.

www.irg-project.org