SOME IMPORTANT BASICS ABOUT BRAZIL• Some basic demographic information:

– 200 million people, 5th in the world; birth rate of 2.19 per woman= 118 in world– urban pop = 86%; White = around half– Life expectancy: female = 68, male = 75; 123rd in the world– Literacy: 89%, Avg. years of schooling: 14 years

• Some basic economics– GDP $2 trillion (2009), 10th largest in the world , 2007 = +6%, 2008, +5% – Per cap GDP (PPP) = $10.1K; 107th in the world– A quarter of Brazilians live in absolute poverty; it is one of the most unequal

countries in the world– Annual inflation 4-5% since 1994– Most of its economic growth is internal; its exports are external; it is an agricultural

power house.– World leader in ethanol production; has recently discovered vast oil reserves– Drug trafficking—Cocaine to Europe—is a problem, but not like in Mexico or the

Andean countries.

WHY TALK ABOUT BRAZIL?• It’s a good place to compare democratic consolidation internally

because of its various regions• Brazil may finally become “the country of the future”… It’s

development model, oil, diplomacy, the new left, and the bolsa familiar

• It presents a unique place to study the dynamics of democratization: Lots of internal variation with fixed rules

• It may be able to tell us something about the legacies of soft authoritarianism and limited political competition for democracy (Like Mexico, civil society became democratic before mass electoral politics did)

• It may have some institutional design problems (multiparty pres./Open list PR), but lots of other things going for it. We can thus ask the question of how much institutions really matter for deepening democracy.

BRAZIL: SO BIG, SO UNEQUAL

BRAZIL TODAY: ECONOMIC GROWTH COMPARED TO THE BRIC

BRAZIL’S ECONOMIC TRADE

BRAZIL’S GOVERNMENT SIZE

WHAT KEY JUNCTURES MOST SHAPED PREDEMOCRATIC BRAZIL?

• Monarchy (and slavery) from 1822-1889: It’s stability was atypical of the region for the most part

• State-based oligarchy (Minas, Rio Grande do Sul, and SP) (think Chinese “democracy”) in the First Republic (1889-1930): This is why federalism still matters in Brazil

• Getulio Vargas’s populist Estado Novo (1930-1945): Populism and corporatism ala Peron but with less backlash & division

• The first shot at democratization with an open-list proportional representation electoral system (1945-1964): Brasilia is built but…clientelism not parties organizes politics, leading to:chaos and finally a CIA-suppored military coup (1964)

• Bureaucratic authoritarian military rule (1964-1985): The economic “miracle” (for some) soft repression for everyone else (e.g. allowed unions & civil society to stay). Bright spots: The military continued elections with the opposition Popular Democratic Movement party, leadership rotation, and made some good econ. investments

Things are getting better!

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN POOR PEOPLE VOTE?

WHY DID BRAZIL FINALLY BECOME DEMOCRATIC?• The “abertura” and pacted democracy: Why did the military open things

up? Is top-down democratization good? • Direitas Ja! (1984) & the (fortunate?) death of the PMB’s Tancredo Neves

(1985)• José Sarney’s (1985-89) & rampant inflation

– Did Sarney really fail as bad as it seems? (G. Washington as a measure)– How did inflation help democracy by delegitimizing the extremes,

keeping the military out, and keeping govt. focused?• Brazil’s 1988 Constitution:

– Who should participate in writing a post-author constitution, and what should its scope be?

– What should the model be?... External or internal – How detailed should these kind of documents be? How should rights &

liberties be specified?– How easy should it be to amend? (Brazil = 60% majority of both

chambers of Congress, with two separate votes) • The impeachment of Fernando Collor de Mello (1992)

HOW IS POWER STRUCTURED IN BRAZIL?The multi-party presidential system: Is there a problem with presidents:

Winner take all, so who wants him to succeed? And what if s/he doesn’t succeed? Coalitions can help

• Four-year term, one-time reelection, single national district with run-offs if no majority

• Very strong pres. power: Can initiate legislation and veto, but his legislative success requires congressional approval (vetoes overridden by a 60% majority of both houses… twice)

• Strong, but accountable, provisional decree powers (Expire after 60 days, unless modified). Impoundment powers.

• Brazilian presidents govern by coalitions, distributing patronage, and cabinet seats; party-switching laws make it easy to join the coalition

A bi-cameral Congress: Strong, well-staffed committees with strong amendment powers Senate: 81 seats (3 for each state), eight-year staggered terms; elected using plurality (vs. majority), statewide elections, no runoffs.

• House: 513 seats; four year, non-staggered terms; elected by state-level OLPR elections involving hundreds of candidates, pop = # of reps in a state.

HOW IS POWER STRUCTURED IN BRAZIL? Cont.

Robust federalism: Why do large countries like Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil have this feature?

• Brazil gives states and municipalities lots of resources• Brazil’s system imposes identical accounting, election,

and party rules on sub-natl. govts. Is this a good thing?The main parties: The Workers’ Party (PT), the Brazilian

Democratic Socialist Party (PSDB); the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) Brazil has around 23 other parties including some hard-core leftist parties. (My research on women/min access)

HAS DEMOCRACY CONSOLIDATED IN BRAZIL?

• Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s (1994-2002), The Plano Real helps democracy, but did his method of reelection create problems?

• The rise of the Workers’ Party (PT) , Lula (2002-2010), and now Dilma (2010-1018) ? Is pretty clean better than squeaky clean?

• The health and vitality of subnational governments in Brazil: My own research

• What elites/people say & do about democracy now…Why is it ok that people are frustrated?

• Thinking about India, Brazil, and Mexico: Is there a reinforcing linkage between democracy and empowering poor people as equal citizens?

DOES BRAZIL HAVE BAD GOVERNMENT? DOES IT HAVE BAD DEMOCRATIC POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS?

• Is having government not work efficiently and in ways that are highly responsive all that bad? Much of what we read doesn’t talk about tradeoffs

• What challenges make multi-party, bicameral, presidential systems so hard to govern? – What’s wrong with presidentialism (vs. parlimentarism)?– Is two houses better than one?– How many “veto” points is ideal? How much strength for the judiciary

• What kind of voters are necessary to make democracy work well? What kind of leaders and politicians does OLPR lead to? (The voter’s dilemma)

• How well have democratic governments in Brazil (and elsewhere) addressed poverty and severe inequality? Is this kind of “responsiveness” ideal or is it is clientelism/populism?– A model for the world of “conditional cash transfers?”

Bolsa familia: 46 million people now served• How has rule under Lula’s government been different? Has a moderate,

democracy-focused (vs. class warfare inclined) left helped democracy?

DOES BRAZIL HAVE BAD GOVERNMENT? DOES IT HAVE BAD POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS? Cont.

• Why does democracy seem to be doing OK in Brazil over the long run despite arguably bad institutions?– Elites from across the political spectrum want the system to

work– Tri-level federalism with block grant funding and

participatory mechanisms – Sovereignty: The military won’t govern and the debt is well

under control.– Economic growth makes people patient. Even though they

say they don’t like the way democracy always work, they see it as the best alternative

– A dense civil society in a large population with good protections of civil rights in most places

– An external focus and strong nationalism: Brazil’s desire to be a major power has changed something