STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 1 The Trade Indicators Project (TIP) An OECD horizontal and international

OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 1

The Trade Indicators Project (TIP)

An OECD horizontal and international project for creating a web-based,

interactive research tool


The basic philosophy

• Globalisation analysis requires cross-disciplinary thinking and approaches

• A wealth of information needs to be – Sighted– Sorted– Analysed – Validated

• Bring separate database together in one application without duplication


Progress made

• There was strong agreement that there is growing demand for trade indicators and that the OECD should and could play a very useful role in this context.

• A statistical project, such as the TIP, with a solid methodological underpinning, combining different data sources and which could help to further advance the research agenda was recognized as a major possible tool for the international research community.

• OECDs richness of available international databases, ready to be used, was recognised as well as its competence and expertise in methodological questions

• There was agreement that OECDs Roundtable approach should be continued and regularly reported to the Trade Experts meetings and other interested bodies.

• There was a clear understanding that TIP would have to be embedded in the OECD.STAT environment. This means 2005 at the earliest from a data storage point of view.

• The first Web-based pilot version has been realised and is in place at the time of writing (September 2005).


Progress made• As reported to the 4ht and 5th ITS meeting:• An inventory of available databases at

OECD which could be used for the purposes of the TIP was drawn up by STD

• A first tentative selection of possible indicators was drawn up by OECD

• 3 Sources: an indicator “Taxonomy” (prepared by L. Iapadre, ICE) was integrated by OECD into the Roundtable conclusions and into the work done for the HEGI.


Achievements during the past 12 months:

• A methodological standard framework (see next slide) was developed

• Work for the OECD HEGI (“Aspects of trade globalisation Chapter”) served also as input into TIP

• Thorough research was carried out compiling all eligible OECD data sources and data availability

• Validation of data, integration into a Report Builder• Creation of an Interactive, Web-based query tool


How does this look like at present?

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES

OECD OCDE

12 - 14 (a.m.) September 2005 Beginning at 10.00 a.m. on the first day

OECD OCDE1

TIP: Standard methodological framework

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE – INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS

13 (p.m.) – 15 September 2005

Beginning at 2:30 p.m. on the first day

&

Dimensions

Indicator IDC

oncept

Refe

rence

Input

Output

Qua

lity

Data element Comment

Name of Indicator - name of the indicator,- referenced as OECD indicator

Definition - short definition

Formula

Valuation - current / constant price (based year)- exchange rate or PPP’s used

Complexity - technical complexity

Data sources- databases used- flow chart - referenced series

Data availability- periodicity- period brackets- area level: country / zone

Visualisation - graphic trend- country benchmarking


Trade indicator groups

1. Trade balance and coverage ratio

2. Trade openness

3. Trade performance indicators

4. Geographic concentration indicators

5. Specialisation

6. Foreign direct investment indicators

7. Foreign controlled affiliates indicators

8. Technology based indicators

9. Trade policy indicators (WTO)

10. Price Indicators

11. Trade intensity and specialisation indicators


1. Trade balance and coverage ratio

• Trade balance value (X-M)

• Normalised trade balance ( [X-M] / [X+M] )

• Coverage ratio (X/M)

2. Trade openness

• Trade-to-GDP-ratio ( [X+M] / GDP )

• Export propensity ( X / GDP )

• Import penetration ration ( M / [GDP-X+M] )

• Trade per capita ([X+M] / POP )

• …


3. Trade performance indicators

• Market shares ( xc / Xtotal )

• Export performance (Δxc –Σα* ΔMtotal )

• …

4. Geographic concentration indicators

• Herfindahl index of geographical concentration

Geographical distribution of export market shares

of goods

• Geographical distribution of import penetration of

goods

• Services trading partners

• ….


Development of a TIP web tool

SNA/ANASNA/ANA

DatabaseDatabase

ITCSITCS

DatabaseDatabase

ALFSALFS

DatabaseDatabase

TISTIS

DatabaseDatabase

……

DatabaseDatabase

Data extraction (SQL queries), data combination and calculationData extraction (SQL queries), data combination and calculationof the indicators, using of the indicators, using XL Report BuilderXL Report Builder

Creation of dot.stat

format using a macro

OECD.statOECD.stat flashmediaflashmediagraphsgraphs(Planned)


Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser (planned)







Save in xls-FormatSave in xls-Format

And/or save queryAnd/or save query


Interactive graphic presentation (planned)

• The trade indicators will be probably made available as macromedia flash objects (*.swf) [embedded in *.html]

• This will allow interactivity in the graphics• The graphs will be produced using

“XCelsius” graphic software

…examples…


Examples of interactive graphs

• Trade balance vs. normalised TBTrade balance vs. normalised TB

• Trade per capita, trade per capita to propensityTrade per capita, trade per capita to propensity

• Export performanceExport performance

• Export/import propensityExport/import propensity

• Trade balance to GDPTrade balance to GDP

• Market sharesMarket shares

• Geographical origin of import penetrationGeographical origin of import penetration

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2 3

4 5

6

7

8

9


Directions for further research

• Trade “plus” indicators, that is trade plus production (e.g. trade orientation measures), trade plus employment (e.g. correlation of trade and employment indicators, trade plus FDI/trade by foreign-affiliated firms (e.g. globalisation strategies).

• More Trade in Services data is needed containing cross tabulations by products and partner countries.

• Better integration of databases and Analytical Nomenclatures, e.g. by technology and factor intensity.

• Links of customs sources with enterprise structural statistics, as discussed at the 6th ITS meeting to allow building up micro data on enterprise-characteristics, performance and related trade.

• Trade intensity and specialisation indicators.

Documents

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 1 The Trade Indicators Project (TIP) An OECD horizontal and international