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Stochastic modelling in policy analysis. Danne Mikula, SSIA. * Swedish PAYG pension scheme. Designing rules for distributing of surplus of the Swedish NDC Pension Scheme. But first we need a crash course in. * The Balance Mechanism. Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Stochastic modelling in policy analysis
Danne Mikula, SSIA
* Swedish PAYG pension scheme* The Balance Mechanism
Designing rules for distributing of surplus of the Swedish NDC Pension Scheme
But first we need a crash course in
Notional Defined Contribution (NDC)
Pay As You Go scheme (PAYG)
Contribution rate 18.5% -> 16%
Total Liability = 2.5 x GDP
Buffer Fund = 10 % of Total Liability
“Autonomous system”
Main source of income for elderly
The Swedish pension reform defines
a financially stable pension system
• Average wage indexation
• Contribution = Entitlement
• Annuity Capital / ”remaining life length”
• Balance mechanism
BR = Assets
Liabilities
Assets? But the system is of PAYG type…
Balance Ratio (BR)
BR =Funds + ....
Pension liability
In Steady State:
Over-consolidation(could be removed) Pension Liability
Balance Ratio an intuitive explanation
BR =Funds + “Pension Liability in SS”
Pension liability
Define
Balance Ratio
Pension Liability in Steady State = Contribution Asset (CA)
CA = C * T
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Contributions (C)
TTurnover duration
”...time is money”
age
Pensions
Average age of contributor
Average age of retiree
AssetsBR =
Liabilities
CA + FBR =
D
Balance Ratio
C * T + FBR =
D
BR >= 1.0
Balance Mechanism
Balance ratio, Demography = Baseline, growth = 2%
0,90
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
1,40
1,50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
5.0% 3.25% 2%
Rate of return
3.25%
5.0%
2.0%
2.0%, with balancing
Big surplus could be accumulated
Asymmetric design
over-consolidation ?
”Automatic balance mechanism”, some properties
• No forecasts, nerveless early reaction to protect liquidity bookkeeping based on well defined, observable historical facts, increases transparency
• Allow less stable (“more socially attractive”) systems deviation from desired indexation only if it is financially necessary
• Secure financial stability regardless magnitude or type of financial strain
• Asymmetric construction can allow exploding buffer fund we need rule indicating when the assets are to big
0,90
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
1,40
1,50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Balance Ratio Ceiling (BRC)
Task: Find the proper BRC level
• Relatively small increase in risk for balancing caused by earlier distribution (<5%)• Consider the intergenerational fairness
Two guiding principles:
1.00 <= BR <= 1.00
Balance Mechanismrestoring the symmetry
1.00 <= BR <= 1.01 1.00 <= BR <= 1.02
1.00 <= BR <= 1.19 1.00 <= BR <= 1.20
… … …
“Ru
le s
pace
”
SwedishPensionModel(Micro)
UTÖModel
(Cell based)
Randomization of• Labour participation• Real return on Buffer Fund• Inflation
Different rules for asset distribution1.00, 1.01, …, 1.20, none
Pension liabilities
Base Line assumptions
With & Without the rule XBuffer FundContributionsPension benefitsBalance Ratio (assets & liabilities)
Aggregate sums, counts,(Average Gain & St. Dev.)
Repeat it “lot of times”
Analyse & make your choice
The framework
Ready!
Here next: Excel based analysis
1.00 <= BR <= 1.10
Recommendationfor the symmetric
mechanism