StranoNeural Network Criminal Profiling

8/13/2019 StranoNeural Network Criminal Profiling

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Neural Network for Psychological Criminal ProfilingNeural Network for Psychological Criminal Profiling

Marco StranoMarco Strano

Italian State PoliceItalian State Police

PsychologistPsychologist

Duke University researcherDuke University researcher

Roberta BruzzoneInternational Crime Analysis Association

Psychologist

Duke University Researcher

Department of MechanicalEngineering and MaterialsScienmce. DURHAM, NC


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20042004 M. Strano, R. BruzzoneM. Strano, R. Bruzzone

NNPCP: Decisional investigativeNNPCP: Decisional investigative

analysis support systemanalysis support system


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Equipe NNPCPEquipe NNPCP

Starting projectStarting project: Marco Strano (Italy): Marco Strano (Italy)

Forensic Psychiatric developmentForensic Psychiatric development: George Palermo (USA): George Palermo (USA)

Forensic Psychology developmentForensic Psychology development: Roberta Bruzzone (Italy): Roberta Bruzzone (Italy)

Forensic MedicineForensic Medicine

: Alfonso Terrana e Giacomo Badalamenti (Italy): Alfonso Terrana e Giacomo Badalamenti (Italy)

Software developmentSoftware development: Silvia Ferrari (USA);: Silvia Ferrari (USA);

Internet developmentInternet development: Daniel Durand (France): Daniel Durand (France)


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The benefits of increasing intuitive policingThe benefits of increasing intuitive policing

The benefit of increasing intuitive policingThe benefit of increasing intuitive policing

applied to the prevention of criminal conducts,applied to the prevention of criminal conducts,

and for the self-defence of police officers onand for the self-defence of police officers onduty, has been broadly documented throughduty, has been broadly documented through

studies in this field and is the subject of researchstudies in this field and is the subject of research

being carried out by eminent experts at globalbeing carried out by eminent experts at globallevel.level.

(Pinnizzotto A.J., Davis E.F., Miller C.E., 2003, 2004)(Pinnizzotto A.J., Davis E.F., Miller C.E., 2003, 2004)


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side effects in a high-stress situationside effects in a high-stress situation

In fact, the improvement of the ability to identifyIn fact, the improvement of the ability to identifya threat immediately through the development ofa threat immediately through the development of

emotion-type perceptual channels can cause aemotion-type perceptual channels can cause aremarkable reduction of the officers responseremarkable reduction of the officers responsetime and offers the possibility to better controltime and offers the possibility to better controlsome typical side effects produced by thesome typical side effects produced by thesudden exposition to a high-stress situationsudden exposition to a high-stress situation((tunnel vision, tachypsichyatunnel vision, tachypsichya, etc.)., etc.).


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Rational policing in the investigative analysisRational policing in the investigative analysis

However, the development of rational policingHowever, the development of rational policingappears to be necessary in investigativeappears to be necessary in investigative

analysis activities requiring the investigator toanalysis activities requiring the investigator to

have an inductive/deductive logical approach.have an inductive/deductive logical approach.


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The role of intuitive and rational policingThe role of intuitive and rational policing

As a usual trend, the rational assessment ofAs a usual trend, the rational assessment of

evidence plays the most important role inevidence plays the most important role in

investigative analysis, and intuitive policinginvestigative analysis, and intuitive policingdynamics are limited to some cases where thedynamics are limited to some cases where the

emotional channel can represent a further wayemotional channel can represent a further way

to access information helpful to the decision-to access information helpful to the decision-making process (i.e., during close observationsmaking process (i.e., during close observations

or the interrogation of a suspect or witness).or the interrogation of a suspect or witness).


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N.N.P.C.P.N.N.P.C.P.

a decisional support for rational policinga decisional support for rational policing


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Is it possible to replicate the operationIs it possible to replicate the operation

mechanisms of a criminal mind in a lab?mechanisms of a criminal mind in a lab?

Sociology, Social Psychology,Sociology, Social Psychology,

Individual Psychology and ClinicalIndividual Psychology and ClinicalPsychiatry rely their diagnosisPsychiatry rely their diagnosis

activity on the consideration thatactivity on the consideration that

human behaviors are oftenhuman behaviors are often

recurrent and have frequentrecurrent and have frequentcorrelations with deep psycho-correlations with deep psycho-

physiological bases, as well asphysiological bases, as well as

behavioral learning mechanismsbehavioral learning mechanisms..


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Goal directed actionGoal directed action

There are always a motivation, a goalThere are always a motivation, a goalto pursue (goal directed action) andto pursue (goal directed action) andan action logic (usually aimed atan action logic (usually aimed at

saving energy) for each social, groupsaving energy) for each social, groupand individual behavior.and individual behavior.

Such a logic can apparently beSuch a logic can apparently beunclear when the motivational factorunclear when the motivational factoris unknown to the observer due to itsis unknown to the observer due to itsatypicalness or its rooting in theatypicalness or its rooting in theactors profound psychology.actors profound psychology.

As an example, a motivation on aAs an example, a motivation on apsycho-pathological basis can revealpsycho-pathological basis can revealan apparently inconsistent logic.an apparently inconsistent logic.


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The aim of the NNPCP projectThe aim of the NNPCP project

The aim of the NNPCP project is to create anThe aim of the NNPCP project is to create an

intelligent and self-learning computer system capableintelligent and self-learning computer system capableof receiving and processing information coming fromof receiving and processing information coming from

observations of officers who experiencedobservations of officers who experienced crime scenecrime scenesituations, thus providing hypotheses for thesituations, thus providing hypotheses for the

motivational and behavioral construal of a subject (themotivational and behavioral construal of a subject (the

crime perpetrator).crime perpetrator).


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criminal mind replication?criminal mind replication?

Actually, the replication of the exact operationActually, the replication of the exact operation

mechanism of a criminal mind is a mere illusion, sincemechanism of a criminal mind is a mere illusion, since

there is no computer able to explain or anticipatethere is no computer able to explain or anticipateunquestionably the relevant portion of human behaviorunquestionably the relevant portion of human behavior

determined by the signification and selection capacitydetermined by the signification and selection capacity

that is peculiar to the human species.that is peculiar to the human species.


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The limit of computerThe limit of computer

A computer, even though highly sophisticated,A computer, even though highly sophisticated,

cant anticipate an individuals adaptive andcant anticipate an individuals adaptive and

interactive responses related to contextualinteractive responses related to contextualfactors and distant from the behavioral patternfactors and distant from the behavioral pattern

hypothetically correlated to a specific personalityhypothetically correlated to a specific personality

profile, or to a given psycho-pathologicalprofile, or to a given psycho-pathologicalframework.framework.


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Motivativational andMotivativational and

behavioral patternsbehavioral patterns

However, the NNPCP networkHowever, the NNPCP network

structure, even being unable tostructure, even being unable toreplicate exactly the operation of areplicate exactly the operation of a

criminal mind, suggestscriminal mind, suggests

motivational and behavioralmotivational and behavioral

patterns peculiar to the majority ofpatterns peculiar to the majority of

the criminal minds studied up tothe criminal minds studied up to

now.now.


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a logical behavior for a criminal minda logical behavior for a criminal mind

In fact, what digital technology can somewhatIn fact, what digital technology can somewhat

successfully replicate is a logical behavior (forsuccessfully replicate is a logical behavior (for

a criminals mind) through a statistical-inductivea criminals mind) through a statistical-inductiveprocessing and logical-deductive correlationsprocessing and logical-deductive correlations

that represent, as a whole, how that verythat represent, as a whole, how that very

person typically acts in a specific situation,person typically acts in a specific situation,

providing a decisional support that limitsproviding a decisional support that limits(without excluding) fault probabilities.(without excluding) fault probabilities.


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NNPCP system functions:NNPCP system functions:

verifying the reliability of inductive and deductive profilingverifying the reliability of inductive and deductive profilingmethods;methods;

providing investigators with a support for analysis andproviding investigators with a support for analysis andinvestigations;investigations; orienting and standardizing the investigative analysis;orienting and standardizing the investigative analysis; reducing error margins on a probabilistic basereducing error margins on a probabilistic base

recommending the analysis of various tracks andrecommending the analysis of various tracks andoffering the rational assessment of the severaloffering the rational assessment of the severalopportunities;opportunities;

reducing investigative decisions on an emotional-reducing investigative decisions on an emotional-

irrational base.irrational base.


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The approach of Neural networkThe approach of Neural network

The typical approach of a neuralThe typical approach of a neural

network relies on the most likelynetwork relies on the most likelytrend, even taking intotrend, even taking into

consideration other selectionconsideration other selection

options.options.


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The initial phase: NNPCP basic learnThe initial phase: NNPCP basic learn

In the initial phase, the software (network) undergoes a basic trainingIn the initial phase, the software (network) undergoes a basic training(basic learn) by means of the storing of correlations derived from the(basic learn) by means of the storing of correlations derived from thefollowing sources:following sources:

elements based on deductive logicelements based on deductive logic: for instance the presence of: for instance the presence ofsperm in the victims body indicates deductively that the suspect is asperm in the victims body indicates deductively that the suspect is amale;male;

elements based on statistical studieselements based on statistical studies: in the case the victim is less: in the case the victim is lessthan 1 year old, reliable international studies indicate the victimsthan 1 year old, reliable international studies indicate the victimsmother as the most likely offender (70%-90% of cases);mother as the most likely offender (70%-90% of cases);

elements based on deductive logicelements based on deductive logic: the authors experience in: the authors experience inClinical Psychology and the analysis of specific literature suggestClinical Psychology and the analysis of specific literature suggestthat some personality traits and some psycho-pathologicalthat some personality traits and some psycho-pathologicalframeworks (I and II axes DSM-IV) are more or less compatibleframeworks (I and II axes DSM-IV) are more or less compatiblewith a number of actions performed by the offender that can leavewith a number of actions performed by the offender that can leave

evidence (traces) on the crime scene or in the coroner report.evidence (traces) on the crime scene or in the coroner report.


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The basic trainingThe basic training

Therefore, the basic training simply puts theTherefore, the basic training simply puts the

system in the position of providing the firstsystem in the position of providing the first

profiles based more on logic that on experience.profiles based more on logic that on experience.

The system output is characteristic of a neuralThe system output is characteristic of a neural

network and is expressed in possibility trendsnetwork and is expressed in possibility trends

rather than reductionistic certainties. Such arather than reductionistic certainties. Such a

factor reduces the false positives and thefactor reduces the false positives and the

subsequent wrong accusations.subsequent wrong accusations.


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The reduction of logical investigative errorsThe reduction of logical investigative errors

The use of the NNPCP investigative decisionalThe use of the NNPCP investigative decisional

support reduces first-impression errors, halosupport reduces first-impression errors, halo

effects, decision-polarization effects, and anyeffects, decision-polarization effects, and anypossible prejudice of the investigators,possible prejudice of the investigators,

suggesting the most logical correlations andsuggesting the most logical correlations and

simultaneously indicating other tracks, maybesimultaneously indicating other tracks, maybeless evident and potentially less likely but notless evident and potentially less likely but not

completely inconsistent.completely inconsistent.


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Standardized investigation analysisStandardized investigation analysis

The adoption of a standardized investigation analysisThe adoption of a standardized investigation analysis

protocol, essential to the use of the NNPCP, makes theprotocol, essential to the use of the NNPCP, makes the

examination on the crime scene more systematic, andexamination on the crime scene more systematic, andencourage the investigator to draw information fromencourage the investigator to draw information from

several sources before formulating his/her firstseveral sources before formulating his/her first

hypotheses.hypotheses.


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Possibles new scenariosPossibles new scenarios

Even after such a formulation, the softwareEven after such a formulation, the software

stimulates the investigator to obtain furtherstimulates the investigator to obtain furtherelements that could disclose new scenarioselements that could disclose new scenarios

or disprove the first suppositions thator disprove the first suppositions that

surfaced in his/her mind.surfaced in his/her mind.


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mathematical logic and intuitionmathematical logic and intuition

The system proposes an investigative approachThe system proposes an investigative approach

based on a mathematical logic, yet leavingbased on a mathematical logic, yet leaving

enough space to the investigators intuitionenough space to the investigators intuitionduring the information retrieval phase.during the information retrieval phase.


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NNPCP reduce typicalNNPCP reduce typical

investigative errorsinvestigative errors


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Logical errorLogical error

it consists in acquiring a series of personalityit consists in acquiring a series of personality

features starting from a feature previouslyfeatures starting from a feature previously

detected to which they are correlated (i.e., if adetected to which they are correlated (i.e., if asuspect seems to be well-mannered, thensuspect seems to be well-mannered, then

he/she will be probably considered a friendly orhe/she will be probably considered a friendly or

inoffensive individual).inoffensive individual).


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Indulgence/hostility effectIndulgence/hostility effect

in this case, benevolent or unfavorable attitudesin this case, benevolent or unfavorable attitudes(also unconscious) can be put into practice(also unconscious) can be put into practicetowards a possible suspect, depending ontowards a possible suspect, depending onwhether his/her manners and look are pleasantwhether his/her manners and look are pleasantor not.or not.

This error can limit the search for possibleThis error can limit the search for possible

evidence against a suspect, underestimatingevidence against a suspect, underestimatingclues or avoiding deep examinations of potentialclues or avoiding deep examinations of potentialtraces.traces.

Or else, the attention can be focused on aOr else, the attention can be focused on a

subject having nothing to do with the factsubject having nothing to do with the fact(mechanism of the investigation theorem).(mechanism of the investigation theorem).


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Halo effect (error)Halo effect (error)

Halo effect:Halo effect:it is a very common cognitive distortionit is a very common cognitive distortionassociated to the normal operation of the human mindassociated to the normal operation of the human mindthat is inclined to save energy and often relies thethat is inclined to save energy and often relies the

construal of reality on few perception items, ignoring orconstrual of reality on few perception items, ignoring orunderestimating other items that can invalidate the firstunderestimating other items that can invalidate the firstimpression construed.impression construed.

This mechanism, skillfully described by Festinger, canThis mechanism, skillfully described by Festinger, canlead an investigator to the formulation of probablelead an investigator to the formulation of probablehypotheses, based on the first elements, without takinghypotheses, based on the first elements, without takinginto consideration evidences, even if significant, comeinto consideration evidences, even if significant, comeout afterwards.out afterwards.


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Prejudice effect (error)Prejudice effect (error)

the investigator can be influenced by previousthe investigator can be influenced by previous

similar cases (superficial approach owing to ansimilar cases (superficial approach owing to an

excess of inductive logic), or by consolidatedexcess of inductive logic), or by consolidatedattitudes (i.e., relating to the suspects raceattitudes (i.e., relating to the suspects race

origins or criminal records).origins or criminal records).

NNPCP advanced training:NNPCP advanced training:


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entry of actual casesentry of actual cases The entry of data derived from actual casesThe entry of data derived from actual cases

concerning CS, AV, RML and RI, subsequentlyconcerning CS, AV, RML and RI, subsequently

correlated according to the offenders (definitelycorrelated according to the offenders (definitelyidentified and interviewed while in custody)identified and interviewed while in custody)

biosociological, motivational, psychological andbiosociological, motivational, psychological and

psychopathological profile, slowly change thepsychopathological profile, slowly change thecertainty of the initial formulation (on acertainty of the initial formulation (on a

statistical base) having the system to generatestatistical base) having the system to generate

more and more accurate and reliable outputs.more and more accurate and reliable outputs.

NNPCP d d t i iNNPCP advanced training:


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entry of actual casesentry of actual cases

Crime scene analysis

Victim analysis

Coroner report(autopsy)

Others investigativeinformations

Offender interwiew

Case 1

NNPCP

LEARNING


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development of the NNPCPdevelopment of the NNPCP

The future development of the NNPCP system isThe future development of the NNPCP system is

conceivable through three steps and three time phases:conceivable through three steps and three time phases:

1.1. Initial phase (basic learn) 1-2 yearsInitial phase (basic learn) 1-2 years2.2. Statistical implementation phase (advanced learn) 2-5Statistical implementation phase (advanced learn) 2-5

yearsyears

3.3.

Operational phase (normal) 5-10 yearsOperational phase (normal) 5-10 years

NNPCP: The importance of geographicalNNPCP: The importance of geographical


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NNPCP: The importance of geographicalNNPCP: The importance of geographical

and cultural factors in criminal profilingand cultural factors in criminal profiling

The NNPCP software is searchable and updateable via the Internet.The NNPCP software is searchable and updateable via the Internet.The neural network recognizes data/cases from variousThe neural network recognizes data/cases from variousgeographical areas and provides its reply according to the regiongeographical areas and provides its reply according to the regionfrom which the request has been sent.from which the request has been sent.

Basically, the program is able to evaluate the different culturalBasically, the program is able to evaluate the different culturalvariables that can affect the thinking and behavior of a criminalvariables that can affect the thinking and behavior of a criminalwhose psychological profile is being sought after.whose psychological profile is being sought after.

The origin zone of real cases that contribute to feed the NNPCPThe origin zone of real cases that contribute to feed the NNPCPnetwork is identified through pertinent user-IDs and passwordsnetwork is identified through pertinent user-IDs and passwords(assigned to operators located in a given geographical area).(assigned to operators located in a given geographical area).

As an example, cases from a European country instruct theAs an example, cases from a European country instruct theEurope profile of the network that is able to recognize and routeEurope profile of the network that is able to recognize and routethem.them.


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Specific geographical areasSpecific geographical areas

Obviously, queries from a specific geographical area willObviously, queries from a specific geographical area willalso receive an output based on the correspondingalso receive an output based on the correspondinginstruction profile. Currently, the software is programmedinstruction profile. Currently, the software is programmed

to identify the cultural influences related to the areasto identify the cultural influences related to the areaslisted below:listed below: Western EuropeWestern Europe United StatesUnited States

South AfricaSouth Africa AustraliaAustralia ChinaChina IndiaIndia South AmericaSouth America

NNPCP: Web interface for desktopNNPCP: Web interface for desktop


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NNPCP: Web interface for desktop,NNPCP: Web interface for desktop,

laptop and handheld computerslaptop and handheld computers The NNPCP software allows the use of a number ofThe NNPCP software allows the use of a number of

commercial browsers and several types of handheldcommercial browsers and several types of handheldcomputers, both for queries and entries.computers, both for queries and entries.

Upon first connection to the system, the websiteUpon first connection to the system, the websitennpcp.org asks the user for his/her hardwarennpcp.org asks the user for his/her hardwareequipment and browsing software. According to theequipment and browsing software. According to the

users indications, the site gets ready to enable anusers indications, the site gets ready to enable anappropriate display of the forms on the screen.appropriate display of the forms on the screen.

The system is designed for the most common browsersThe system is designed for the most common browsers

(some versions of Explorer and Netscape) and the main(some versions of Explorer and Netscape) and the mainpalmtop computer trademarks and models.palmtop computer trademarks and models.


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NNPCP: The input of actual casesNNPCP: The input of actual cases

The instruction of the NNPCP neural network is carried out byThe instruction of the NNPCP neural network is carried out byentering actual cases, using data derived from the crime scene, theentering actual cases, using data derived from the crime scene, thecoroner report, the police report on the victim, and the psychologicalcoroner report, the police report on the victim, and the psychologicalstudy of the offender.study of the offender.

The system exploits all collected data to instruct the neural networkThe system exploits all collected data to instruct the neural networkonly after the investigation has been completed and the culprit hasonly after the investigation has been completed and the culprit hasbeen found out, arrested and interrogated.been found out, arrested and interrogated.

In particular, when the offender is detected after a long time, it mayIn particular, when the offender is detected after a long time, it mayoccur that the investigation remains at a standstill for months oroccur that the investigation remains at a standstill for months or

even years, so, in order to avoid any mistake, all registered andeven years, so, in order to avoid any mistake, all registered andcertified users have the opportunity to access only their own casescertified users have the opportunity to access only their own cases(opened by themselves).(opened by themselves).

In fact, the system recognizes user-IDs and passwords used whenIn fact, the system recognizes user-IDs and passwords used whenopening a case, so the operator wanting to modify (or conclude) aopening a case, so the operator wanting to modify (or conclude) a

case after some time, is offered that specific case only.case after some time, is offered that specific case only.

NNPCP:NNPCP:


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NNPCP:NNPCP:

Multiple accesses to the same caseMultiple accesses to the same case

The NNPCP system is able to collect all dataThe NNPCP system is able to collect all data

relating to the same case, but entered byrelating to the same case, but entered by

different operators (i.e., the crime scenedifferent operators (i.e., the crime sceneinvestigator, the coroner, the psychologist), andinvestigator, the coroner, the psychologist), and

converge them into the supporting database.converge them into the supporting database.

Operators will have to use the same CaseOperators will have to use the same Case

Identification Code (CIC).Identification Code (CIC).

NNPCP:NNPCP:


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NNPCP:NNPCP:

Statistical/analytical use of the systemStatistical/analytical use of the system

The NNPCP neural networkThe NNPCP neural network

supporting database is also able tosupporting database is also able to

perform the conventionalperform the conventionalcomputation of statistics, calculatingcomputation of statistics, calculating

the incidence of single variablesthe incidence of single variables

and correlating different variables.and correlating different variables.

Therefore, the system is exploitableTherefore, the system is exploitable

for research purposes in addition tofor research purposes in addition to

the investigative use.the investigative use.

A d if NNPCP kA d if NNPCP k


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And if NNPCP works..And if NNPCP works..

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StranoNeural Network Criminal Profiling