Sunday Times

/Behaviour &

Attitudes October 2012

Opinion Poll 3rd – 15th October, 2012

Prepared for

Prepared by Ian McShane

J.4174

Technical Appendix

3

Technical Appendix

The results of this opinion poll are based upon a representative sample of 971 Irish

adults aged 18 years +.

As such, the results can be deemed to be accurate to within plus or minus 3.2

percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Fieldwork was conducted over the period Wednesday 3rd – Monday, 15th October,

2012, with interviewing carried out at the Behaviour & Attitudes Computer Aided

Telephone Interviewing (CATI) Unit at Milltown House in Dublin.

Interviewing was conducted across all 43 constituencies in the country with

households selected for interview by way of Random Digit Dialling (RDD).

The sample is split across RDD landline numbers and RDD mobile telephone numbers,

so as to ensure that individuals living in landline only households, mobile only

households, and households with both a landline and mobile telephone are

represented in their correct proportions.

4

Technical Appendix

The subsequent survey results are weighted to reflect the known demographic profile

of Irish adults, utilising the most recently published census population estimates

from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

All aspects of the survey, are implemented in accordance with the technical and

ethical guidelines set down by the Association of Irish Market Research Organisations

(AIMRO) and the European Society of Opinion & Market Research (ESOMAR).

Charted Summary

6

Should Same Sex Marriage be Legislated for?

Q.2 As you probably know, in 2010 Irish law was changed to allow for full civil partnership between same sex

couples. Since then there have been calls for the law to be changed further to allow for full marriage for

same sex couples, with all of the legal entitlements that would bestow on the married couple.

In your opinion, should the law remain as it is whereby same sex couples can enter into full civil

partnership but not full marriage, or should it be changed to allow for full same sex marriage?

Base: All Eligible

Voters

Total

Gender Age Class 1Region

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins

ter

Munster Conn/

Ulster

Base: 971 484 487 302 377 292 440 479 52 269 252 267 180

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

Should remain as

is 26 31 22 19 23 40 22 29 33 27 25 24 33

Should allow for

full same sex

marriage with all

legal

entitlements

66 62 69 74 71 51 73 62 56 67 70 65 59

Don't Know / No

Opinion 8 7 8 7 6 9 4 9 11 6 5 11 8

7

Should Same Sex Marriage be Legislated for?

As recently as twenty years ago, the majority of Irish adults’ attitudes towards issues of

morality were very much in line with that of official Catholic Church doctrine.

Since then we have witnessed the increased secularisation of Irish society, the advent of

a more educated, well travelled and cosmopolitan generation and a collapse in trust in

the institutions of the Catholic church through a series of child abuse scandals.

As a result, the power of the church to dictate citizens’ personal moral agenda has by

now almost completely disappeared.

While this week’s census data has revealed that 84% of Irish people still classify

themselves as Catholic, the proportion doing so has declined significantly over the last

twenty years, and seems likely to continue on this path into the future.

Nowhere is this fracture between traditional church teaching and today’s social mores

more evident than in the results of the most recent Sunday Times/Behaviour &

Attitudes Opinion Poll.

8

Should Same Sex Marriage be Legislated for?

In today’s Poll, respondents were asked whether they felt full same sex marriage with all

of its associated legal entitlements should be legislated for, or whether the law should

remain as it is whereby same sex couples can enter into full civil partnership but not

marriage.

The results are stark and unambiguous. Thus, two-thirds of all Irish adults are in favour

of full same sex marriage, with just over a quarter of the view that the law should

remain as it is whereby gay couples can enter into civil partnership but not marriage.

Less than one in ten of all Irish adults are undecided on this issue – an interesting

indicator of the single-mindedness of the general population with regard to what would

once have been considered a highly contentious socio-cultural issue.

The proportion of individuals in favour of full same sex marriage registers at almost

three-quarters amongst the broad 18-54 years age cohort, with even a (very slim 51%!)

majority of 55 years+ individuals opting for such an arrangement.

9

Should Same Sex Marriage be Legislated for?

As might be expected, support for full gay marriage is marginally higher in urban

areas than it is in rural communities, and is particularly high (73%) amongst the white

collar and professional ABC1 socio-economic grouping.

The message from today’s poll is clear. The Irish electorate will support legislative

or even constitutional change with regard to issues which are deemed by them to be

of sufficient social import.

Coupled with the results of last month’s Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Poll

which revealed that 80% of the electorate would support a change in the law to

permit abortion where the life of the mother is at risk, we can truly say that Irish

society has been utterly transformed over the course of just a single generation.

10

Who Should Rory McIlroy Declare for?

Q.1 As you are probably aware, there has been some debate recently as to whether Rory Mc Ilroy will play for

Ireland or for Great Britain at the 2016 Olympic Games, or indeed whether he will play at the Games at

all. In your opinion, should Rory Mc Ilroy play for Ireland or for Great Britain in the 2016 Olympics, or

should he decide not to play at the Games at all?

Base: All Eligible

Voters

Total

Gender Age Class 1Region

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins

ter

Munster Conn/

Ulster

Base: 971 484 487 302 377 292 440 479 52 269 252 267 180

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

Should play for

Ireland 54 52 56 57 51 55 49 57 65 55 52 53 58

Should play for

Great Britain 12 15 10 13 12 13 14 10 21 9 15 14 12

Should decide not

to play at all 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 5 9 10 7 8

Don't Know / No

Opinion 25 25 25 21 30 23 29 24 9 27 23 27 21

11

Who Should Rory McIlroy Declare for?

On a lighter note, respondents were asked whether Rory McIlroy should play for Ireland

or for Great Britain at the 2016 Olympic Games, or indeed whether they felt he should

decide not to play at the games at all.

In response, just over half (54%) are of the view that McIlroy should declare for Ireland –

a figure which rises to 57% of those from a blue collar working class background, 65%

within the farming community, and just under six in ten of those resident in

Connaught/Ulster.

The great majority of the remaining 46% either hold no view (or perhaps no interest) on

the matter, or feel that McIlroy should simply decide not to play at the Olympics at all.

Just over one in ten are of the opinion that he should declare for Great Britain, perhaps

not surprisingly given the mini-furore which erupted when the Hollywood native

suggested that he felt more British than Irish in many ways.

On balance, the message from this poll would appear to be that, while a significant

proportion of punters across the Republic of Ireland would likely be upset if McIlroy

declared for Great Britain, there are as many again who have adopted a more sanguine

approach to the issue, and are happy for McIlroy to ultimately make his own decision on

the matter.

Tabular Data

Sunday Times Opinion Poll - October 2012 19/10/2012

Page 1Table 1

Fieldwork : 3rd - 15th October 2012 B&A

As you are probably aware, there has been some debate recently as to whether Rory Mc Ilroy will play for Ireland or for Great Britain at the 2016 Olympic Games, or indeed whether he will play at the Games at all.In your opinion, should Rory Mc Ilroy play for Ireland or for Great Britain in the 2016 Olympics, or should he decide not to play at the Games at all?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+

Total Gender Age Class Region Area

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,421 1,676 1,745 1,165 1,262 994 1,372 1,795 254 989 856 940 616 2,092 1,329

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,421 1,676 1,745 1,165 1,262 994 1,372 1,795 254 989 856 940 616 2,092 1,329

UNWTD 971 484 487 302 377 292 440 479 52 269 252 267 180 666 300

Should play for Ireland

1,852 875 976 666 640 546 670 1,017 165 539 449 495 359 1,054 798

54% 52% 56% 57% 51% 55% 49% 57% 65% 55% 52% 53% 58% 50% 60%

Should play for Great Britain

427 256 171 147 152 128 194 180 52 93 129 128 77 277 150

12% 15% 10% 13% 12% 13% 14% 10% 21% 9% 15% 14% 12% 13% 11%

Should decide not to play at all

290 133 158 106 95 88 109 168 13 94 83 63 51 194 96

8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9% 5% 9% 10% 7% 8% 9% 7%

Don't Know / No Opinion

853 412 441 246 375 232 399 430 24 264 196 254 129 568 285

25% 25% 25% 21% 30% 23% 29% 24% 9% 27% 23% 27% 21% 27% 21%

Sunday Times Opinion Poll - October 2012 19/10/2012

Page 2Table 2

Fieldwork : 3rd - 15th October 2012 B&A

As you probably know, in 2010 Irish law was changed to allow for full civil partnership between same sex couples.Since then there have been calls for the law to be changed further to allow for full marriage for same sex couples, with all of the legal entitlements that would bestow on the married couple.In your opinion, should the law remain as it is whereby same sex couples can enter into full civil partnership but not full marriage, or should it be changed to allow for full same sex marriage?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+

Total Gender Age Class Region Area

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,421 1,676 1,745 1,165 1,262 994 1,372 1,795 254 989 856 940 616 2,092 1,329

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WTD Base: 3,421 1,676 1,745 1,165 1,262 994 1,372 1,795 254 989 856 940 616 2,092 1,329

UNWTD 971 484 487 302 377 292 440 479 52 269 252 267 180 666 300

Should remain as is 906 515 390 221 289 395 307 515 83 262 217 224 203 524 382

26% 31% 22% 19% 23% 40% 22% 29% 33% 27% 25% 24% 33% 25% 29%

Should allow for full same sex marriage with all legal entitlements

2,257 1,045 1,212 861 891 505 1,005 1,109 143 667 600 614 366 1,419 838

66% 62% 69% 74% 71% 51% 73% 62% 56% 67% 70% 65% 59% 68% 63%

Don't Know / No Opinion

258 116 142 83 82 93 60 170 28 60 39 102 48 150 108

8% 7% 8% 7% 6% 9% 4% 9% 11% 6% 5% 11% 8% 7% 8%

Questionnaire

2

The Questionnaire

BEHAVIOUR & ATTITUDES POLL QUESTIONNAIRE – OCTOBER 2012

ASK ALL ADULTS 18YRS+

Q.1 As you are probably aware, there has been some debate recently as to whether Rory Mc Ilroy will play for Ireland or for Great Britain at the 2016 Olympic Games, or indeed whether he will play at the Games at all.

In your opinion, should Rory Mc Ilroy play for Ireland or for Great Britain in the 2016

Olympics, or should he decide not to play at the Games at all?

Should play for Ireland 1

Should play for Great Britain 2 Should decide not to play at all 3 Don’t know/No opinion 4

Q.2 As you probably know, in 2010 Irish law was changed to allow for full civil partnership

between same sex couples. Since then there have been calls for the law to be

changed further to allow for full marriage for same sex couples, with all of the legal

entitlements that would bestow on the married couple.

In your opinion, should the law remain as it is whereby same sex couples can enter into full civil partnership but not full marriage, or should it be changed to allow for full same sex marriage?

Should remain as is 1

Should allow for full same sex marriage with all legal entitlements 2

Don’t know/no opinion 3

J.4174

3

Thank you