Survey of South Sudan Public Opinion - International

International Republican Institute (IRI) - Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls

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Need

Survey of South Sudan Public Opinion September 6-27, 2011

www.iri.org

Survey Methodology


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SURVEY METHODOLOGY

• In September 2011, the International Republican Institute (IRI) undertook the first

countrywide poll of the new nation of the Republic of South Sudan which had achieved

independence two months earlier on July 9, 2011.

• The nationwide poll sampled a target population of South Sudan adults ages 18 and older

from all 10 states of South Sudan: Central Equatoria, Eastern Equatoria, Lakes, Jonglei,

Northern Bahr el Ghazal Unity, Upper Nile, Warrap, Western Bahr el Ghazal and Western

Equatoria.

• Data collection was performed by trained local South Sudanese personnel under the

supervision of IRI. The sample frame was based on the latest population estimates by 2010

Statistical Yearbook for South Sudan from the South Sudan Center for Statistics and

Evaluation. Consultative guidance on fieldwork and analysis was provided by Pechter Polls

of Princeton, New Jersey.

• The survey tool was administered through face-to-face interviews in the language of the

respondent’s choice: Dinka, Nuer, Juba Arabic, Classical Arabic or English.

• A stratified multi-stage sample procedure was used for interviewing. Population within

states was broken down by counties and geography (urban/rural). Quotas were set by

county and by geography within each district. The corresponding households were then

randomly selected within each county, and a respondent 18 years of age or older was

randomly selected from each household according to next birthday, taking into account the

female/male quota of each team. A gender quota ensured that every other interview was

with a female.


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• A total of 2,225 interviews were completed from September 6-27, 2011. The margin of error is

plus or minus 2.1 percent overall. Quotas were set by state to allow for state and gender

analysis and all 2,225 interviews have been weighted proportionally by state and gender.

• After the data was collected (2,225 interviews), state results were weighted in proportion to

the South Sudan population. For example, Central Equatoria represents 13.3 percent of the

adult population; therefore the 296 interviews collected from Central Equatoria were

weighted to 13.3 percent of all interviews. Similar weighting was applied to each state to

ensure that data are consistent with data from the South Sudan Center for Statistics and

Evaluation.

• Gender in the survey was 51.9 percent male and 48.1 percent female. This is consistent with

the gender breakdowns from the the South Sudan Center for Statistics and Evaluation.

• Verification was performed by supervisors on 44 percent of the sample, either by actual

observation or through follow-up interviews.

• Tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

• Response rate was 94.6 percent.

• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards

for market and social research methodologies.

All photos in this report are property of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan/Tim McKulka.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY


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SURVEY METHODOLOGY Survey statistics: Sample equals 2,225 interviews; Survey margin of error +/- 2.1%

Weighted By State

South Sudan State Sample Size Percent Margin of Error

Central Equatoria 296 13% 5.7%

Eastern Equatoria 239 11% 6.3%

Lakes 187 8% 7.1%

Jonglei 358 16% 5.2%

Northern Bahr El Ghazal 205 9% 6.8%

Unity 174 8% 7.4%

Upper Nile 265 12% 6.0%

Warrap 248 11% 6.2%

Western Bahr El Ghazal 91 4% 10.2%

Western Equatoria 162 7% 7.7%

Total South Sudan 2,225 100% 2.1%


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SURVEY METHODOLOGY Survey statistics: Sample equals 2,225 interviews; Survey margin of error +/- 2.1%

Weighted By State

Region Sample Size Percent Margin of Error

Bahr El Ghazal 731 33% 3.6%

Greater Equatoria 696 11% 3.7%

Greater Upper Nile 797 36% 3.5%

Total South Sudan 2,225 100% 2.1%


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Glossary

ANC African National Congress

CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement

GOSS Government of Southern Sudan

IRI International Republican Institute

NCP National Congress Party

NGO Nongovernmental Organization

SANU Sudan African National Union

SPLA Sudan People’s Liberation Army

SPLM Sudan People’s Liberation Movement

SPLM-DC

Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – Democratic

Change

SSDF-Forum South Sudan Democratic Forum

SSDF-Front South Sudan Democratic Front

SSLA South Sudan Legislative Assembly

ROSS Republic of South Sudan

UDF United Democratic Front

UDSF United Democratic Salvation Front

UDSF-M United Democratic Salvation Front – Mainstream

USAP United Sudan African Party

General Environment


9

Do you feel that South Sudan is generally heading

in the right direction or the wrong direction?

56%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Right Direction Wrong Direction


10

Why do you say that the country is heading in the right direction?

N = 1,239

21%

10%

9%

7%

5% 5% 4% 4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Democracy/Political Rights

Education

Crime and Security

Health

Infrastructure/Roads

Management of the Economy

Transportation

Independence/Separation/

Freedom


11

Why do you say that the country is heading in the wrong direction?

N = 921

11%

10% 9%

9%

8% 7%

7% 7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Crime and Security

Food Shortage/Famine

Health

Unemployment


Education

Management of the Economy

Corruption


12

Do you feel that South Sudan is generally heading

in the right direction or the wrong direction?

(by region)

73%

54%

46%

26%

45%

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Bahr El Ghazal Greater Equatoria Greater Upper Nile

Right Direction

Wrong Direction


13

In your opinion, what are the most important problems

facing this country?

11% 11%

10%

9%

7%

6% 5%

5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Health

Crime and Security


Education


Political Instability/PoliticalDivisions/Ethnic Tensions

Water Supply

Unemployment

Indicators


15

What top issues or concerns do you feel most impact

your daily life or family?

First Top Concerns

19%

11% 10%

9%

7%

5% 5% 4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%


Health

Unemployment

Education

Poverty/Destitution

Crime and Security

Sickness/Disease

Water Supply


16

What top issues or concerns do you feel most impact

your daily life or family?

Second Top Concerns

14%

12%

10%

7% 7%

6% 6%

4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%


Health

Education

Unemployment

Water Supply

Poverty/Destitution

Crime and Security

Sickness/Disease


17

What top issues or concerns do you feel most impact your daily

life or family?

First Concern Second Concern Third Concern

Food

Shortage/Famine 19%

Food

Shortage/Famine 14% Health 11%

Health 11% Health 12% Education 9%

Unemployment 10% Education 10% Food

Shortage/Famine 8%

Education 9% Unemployment 7% Water Supply 7%

Poverty/Destitution 7% Water Supply 7% Sickness/Disease 6%

Crime and Security 5% Poverty/Destitution 6% Crime and Security 6%

Sickness/Disease 5% Crime and Security 6% Unemployment 5%

Wages/Incomes and

Salaries 5% Sickness/Disease 4% Poverty/Destitution 4%

National Priorities


19

Now, I’m going to read you a list of things that the government could try

to do. For each one, please tell me whether you think it is a very high

priority, a priority, a low priority or a very low priority for the government.

Please keep in mind that there is not enough money for the government

to do everything at once.

64% 74%

82%

70% 79%

24%

21%

14%

23%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CreatingMore Jobs

BuildingRoads

ProvidingMore Accessto Healthcare

ProvidingMore Clean

Water

ImprovingSecurity

High Priority

Very High Priority


20

For each institution and individual, please tell me whether you

think very favorably, favorably, unfavorably or very unfavorably

about them.

Very

Favorably Favorably Unfavorably

Very

Unfavorably

The President 50% 32% 10% 4%

The Parliament 31% 40% 14% 6%

South Sudanese Armed Forces (Former SPLA) 49% 32% 11% 5%

Your State's Governor 24% 32% 18% 20%

Women Politicians 36% 35% 13% 7%

Your State's Government 24% 36% 21% 12%

Opposition Political Parties 20% 33% 20% 11%

The Police 37% 35% 15% 9%

Judges and the Courts 32% 37% 15% 10%

Your Tribal Leaders 39% 39% 13% 5%

Foreign Government Officials 39% 38% 9% 4%

Foreign NGOs 57% 28% 6% 4%

South Sudanese Who Lived in Sudan (North) and

are Now Coming Back 46% 30% 12% 8%

South Sudanese Returning from Another Country 50% 34% 8% 5%


21

For each institution and individual, please tell me whether you think

very favorably or favorably about them. (by region)

Bahr El Ghazal Greater Equatoria Greater Upper Nile

The President Very Favorably 79% 40% 32%

Favorably 17% 40% 41%

The Parliament Very Favorably 40% 24% 28%


South Sudanese Armed

Forces Very Favorably 66% 36% 42%


Opposition Political Parties Very Favorably 22% 15% 21%


South Sudanese Who

Lived in Sudan (North) Very Favorably 55% 33% 44%


South Sudanese Returning

from Another Country Very Favorably 57% 40% 50%


Land Ownership


23

Thinking of the land under your house, it should be owned by…?

56%

36%

3% 4%

0% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

You

The Government

Traditional Leaders

The Village orCommunity

No One


24

How about farm land or grazing land? Who should own it?

44%

41%

5%

9%

1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

The Farmer or theHerder

The Government

Traditional Leaders

The Village orCommunity

No One

Provision of Services


26

Who do you think actually has primary responsibility for managing

each of the following tasks?

National

Government

State

Government

Local

Government

Traditional

Leaders

Members of

the

Community

Building Roads/Hospitals and

Schools 67% 22% 6% 2% 2%

Keeping the Community Clean 8% 17% 30% 9% 34%

Managing Schools 23% 31% 30% 6% 8%

Collecting Taxes 12% 22% 43% 17% 3%

Solving Local Disputes 10% 10% 26% 42% 11%

Allocating Land 16% 26% 34% 16% 7%

Protecting Rivers and Forest 37% 24% 25% 6% 5%

Providing Security 53% 28% 13% 3% 2%

Security


28

Over the last year, would you say that security in South Sudan has

gotten…?

20% 22%

5% 3%

39%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Much Better Somewhat Better Much Worse Somewhat Worse Same Don’t Know/No Response

59%

34%


29

In some areas of South Sudan, violence is a major concern for

people. Which of the following types of violence concerns you the

most in your daily life?

23%

7%

5%

25%

19%

12%

2%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Local Crime (Like Robbery orKilling)

Domestic Crime (ViolenceWithin a Household)

Gender Violence (ViolenceAgainst Women)

Cattle Raiding

Conflict Between Two Tribesor Ethnic Groups

Armed Militias or Terrorists

Invasion from Foreign Armies

I Am Not Affected by Any Kindof Violence

Federalism


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23%

44%

4%

12%

17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Would you prefer that the state governments were stronger

or the national government is stronger?

35%

61%

Strongly Prefer State Somewhat Prefer State Somewhat Prefer National Strongly Prefer National Don’t Know/No Response


32

Thinking of the money from oil and other sources going to these

two levels of government, do you think that…?

7%

31%

39%

15%

2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

All of the Money Should Go to theNational Government and None tothe State Governments

Most of the Money Should Go tothe National Government andSome to the State Governments

Half of the Money Should Go tothe National Government and Halfto the State Governments

Most of the Money Should Go tothe State Governments and Someto the National Government

All of the Money Should Go to theState Governments

International Attachments


34

Now, I’m going to read you a list of countries. For each one, please

tell me whether you think very favorably or favorably about them.

11%

15%

20%

27%

30%

33%

36%

39%

40%

67%

20%

31%

27%

28%

37%

29%

35%

39%

36%

17%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Sudan (North)

Egypt

China

Norway

South Africa

United Kingdom

Ethiopia

Kenya

Uganda

USA

Very Favorably

Favorably

Voting Behaviors


36

When voting in an election or a referendum, how important to you

personally is advice from the following types of people?

63%

51%

59%

49%

35%

44% 45% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Very Important

Family

Friends

Religious Leader

Tribal Leader

Politician or Party Activist

Police Officer or Soldier

Civil Society Activist

Government Official


37

In an election, how likely would you vote for the following people?

Very Likely Likely

South Sudanese Returning from Another Country 38% 32%

South Sudanese Returning from Northern Sudan 28% 30%

A Person from Your Tribe or Ethnic Group 42% 38%

A Person from Another Tribe or Ethnic Group 38% 40%

A Woman 53% 33%

A Person Younger Than 35 37% 31%

A Person from Your Political Party 41% 35%

A Person from Your Religious Background 47% 36%

Democracy Attitudes


39

Turning to another topic, the idea of democratic government,

please tell me if you feel that you are…

38%

21%

11%

22%

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Very Familiar With the Idea ofDemocracy

Partly Familiar With the Idea

Not Really Familiar With theIdea

Not At All Familiar

Don't Know/No Response


40

In your opinion, how much of a democracy is South Sudan today?

N = 1,531 (responses of persons familiar with the concept of democracy)

20%

43%

23%

9%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

A Democracy With MajorProblems

A Democracy With MinorProblems

A Full Democracy

Do Not Understand Question

Not a Democracy


41

In your opinion, how likely is it that you can talk to your member

of parliament in the SSLA about an important issue?

23%

16%

22%

35%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Not At All Likely

Not Likely

Somewhat Likely

Very Likely


42

Talking about officials in the national government, how much

time…

…should your Member of

Parliament spend in this

constituency to visit the

community and its citizens?

…does your Member of

Parliament spend in this

constituency?

Almost All of Their

Time 10% 5%

At Least Weekly 18% 20%

At Least Once A Month 43% 29%

At Least Once a Year 15% 18%

Never 10% 20%


43

Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

Statement 1: Political parties create division and confusion; it is therefore unnecessary to have

many political parties in South Sudan.

Statement 2: Many political parties are needed to make sure that South Sudanese have real

choices in who governs them.

23%

15% 17%

36%

1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Agree Very Strongly WithStatement 1

Agree With Statement 1



Agree With Neither


44

Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

Statement 1: Members of Parliament represent the people; therefore they should make laws for

this country, even if the President does not agree.

Statement 2: Since the President represents all of us, he should pass laws without worrying

about what Parliament thinks.

61%

12%

7%

11%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%





Agree With Neither


45

Do you think a constitution should limit the number of years

an elected president is in office?

85%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Yes No


46

How many years should an elected president be in office?

Top Five Responses

39%

23%

7% 5% 5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

4

5

3

6

Unlimited

Political Parties


48

How satisfied are you with the SPLM’s performance as the ruling

party?

30%

7% 6%

37%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

67%

27%

Very Satisfied Satisfied Not Satisfied Not At All Satisfied Don’t Know/No Response


49

How favorable are you towards the following political parties?

Very Favorably Favorably Unfavorably Very

Unfavorably

Don’t Know/No

Response

SPLM 51% 33% 8% 3% 6%

UDF 5% 17% 11% 7% 60%

UDSF 3% 13% 11% 8% 65%

SSDF-Forum 4% 12% 10% 7% 68%

SSDF-Front 2% 11% 9% 8% 70%

UDSF-M 2% 10% 8% 8% 70%

SPLM-DC 4% 14% 9% 14% 58%

ANC 3% 14% 9% 8% 67%

USAP 3% 14% 9% 7% 67%

SANU 4% 16% 8% 7% 65%


50

How important do you think the participation of opposition parties

is in determining the future of the country?

42%

22%

8% 7%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Very Important

Somewhat Important

Not Very Important

Not At All Important



51

Are you a member of a political party?

43%

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Yes No


52

If yes, which party?

N=956

2% 1% 1%

91%

2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ANC

NCP

SSDF-Forum

SPLM

SPLM-DC

SANU

UDF

UDSF

UDSF-M

USAP

Women’s Issues


54

Compared to men, do you think women living in South Sudan

have…?

13%

23%

62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

More Rights

Equal Rights

Less Rights


55

Do you think women would make good legislators?

79%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Yes No


56

According to South Sudan’s constitution, women should make up

at least 25 percent of the government at all levels. Do you think

this number should be…?

53%

12%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Higher

Lower

Stay the Same


57

According to South Sudan’s constitution, women should make up at

least 25 percent of the government at all levels. Do you think this

number should be…?

41%

65%

12% 11%

44%

22%

2% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Men Women

Higher

Lower

Stay the Same


Demographics


59

Is the person interviewed person a man or a woman?

52% 48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Man Woman


60

Would you please tell me your age range?

53%

37%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18-34

35-59

60 or Older


61

What is the level of your schooling? Have you had…?

40%

27%

23%

8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

No Schooling

Only Primary Schooling

Only Secondary School

University School


62

What is your ethnic background?

Top Six Responses

40%

19%

3% 5% 4% 4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Dinka

Nuer

Shiluk

Bari

Zande

Toposa


63

Which of the following statements most applies to you?

49%

23%

18%

6%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

I Consider Myself Onlyas South Sudanese

I Feel More SouthSudanese Than Tribe

I Feel as Much SouthSudanese as Tribe

I Feel More Tribe ThanSouth Sudanese

I Consider Myself Onlyas Tribe


64

In general how do you rate your living conditions compared

to other South Sudanese?

10%

30%

27%

18%

14%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Much Better

Somewhat Better

The Same

Somewhat Worse

Much Worse


65

Thinking about the amount of money your family spends per

month, please tell me which of the following phrases best suites

your household situation.

62%

18%

15%

3% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Unable to Meet BasicNeeds

Able to Meet Basic Needs

Able to Meet Basic NeedsWith Some Non-EssentialGoods

Able to Purchase MostNon-Essential Goods

Plenty of DisposableMoney


66

What is your present occupation?

23%

3%

9%

15%

7%

15%

26%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Farmer

Herder

Worker

Civil Servant

Academic

Self-Employed (SmallBusiness)

Unemployed


67

What is your religion? Are you…?

93%

2% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Christian

Muslim

Other


68

What is your primary source of news and information?

61%

4% 2% 2% 2%

16%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Radio

Television

Newspapers

Internet

SMS/Cell Phone

Word of Mouth

Community Meetings(Village/Tribal Chief)


69

How often do you get news and information from the following

sources?

Never Less Than

Once a Month

Few Times a

Week Everyday

Don’t Know/

No Response

Radio 28% 4% 16% 48% 4%

Television 69% 5% 12% 8% 7%

Newspapers 73% 7% 8% 4% 8%

SMS/Cell Phone 62% 5% 9% 17% 7%

Internet 82% 4% 4% 3% 8%


70

Do you own a cell phone?

53%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Yes No


71

International Republican Institute 1225 Eye Street N.W.

Washington, DC 20005 www.iri.org

Pechter Polls 66 Witherspoon Street #405

Princeton, NJ 08542 www.pechterpolls.com

Documents

Survey of South Sudan Public Opinion - International