SWI Security Report Vol 3 Issue 11

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FEBRUARY 18, 2013 | SWI Security Report Vol 3 Issue-11

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SWISecurityReportVol3Issue-9

JANUARY17,2013

IndustrialSecurityIncidentinHaldiaisalessonorIndianIndustry

AttackedinAndhraPradeshbyMaoiststwoEssarCompanyvehiclesweresetonfre

HeadingorConvergence

theIndianHomeland

SecurityandDeenceMarketsSWISecurityReportVol3Issue-4

November3,2012

Issues that would continue to be relevant in 2013

NORTHEASTINDIA

TheUntappedPotentialandthePerennialParanoia

SECURINGPORTSININDIAProtectingport


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FEBRUARY 18, 2013 SWI Security Report Vol 3 Issue-11

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LEAD ANALYSIS:Is India Ready For 2014? pg 2

Is India Ready to Defend Its National Assets? pg 9The Possibility of Defence Spending Cut and Its Impact pg 11

India Security Review: Understanding Terror Threats to Megacities pg 13

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Contributors: Sandeep Bhardwaj, David LR Ralte, Pathikrit Payne

Copyright Security Watch India 2012Security Watch India (SWI) is a non-partisan, not-for-prot organization that addresses issues in the space

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SWI Security Report Vol 3 Issue-11 FEBRUARY 18, 2013 1

CONTENTS


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Is India ready for 2014?Are we staring at a two-frontal war with Pakistan & China and decisive battle against Maoist coincidingat the same time? Or is it that 2014 would usher in a new era of economic prosperity and tranquility

for South Asia and China? Pathikrit Payne

The recent spate of discussions in the Indian parliament

regarding the security preparedness of India primarily in the

context of Indian Armed Forces equipment obsolescence

issues vis--vis the growing nexus between Pakistan and

China brings to the fore the need to discuss the impending

crisis around 2014. So why is 2014 important for India?

Well, if one connects the dots, an interesting picture of the

emerging scenario comes up and needless to say that the

picture is not essentially a rosy one. It can be now said with

surety that by 2014 ISAF or International Security Assistance

Force, the international coalition led by US Armed Forces

would completely quit Afghanistan leaving behind a bloody

trail and vindicating once more why Afghanistan has always

been the quintessential graveyard for marching armies.

To understand what might emerge out of the exit of US

led forces in 2014, one should look at what emerged out

of the disintegration of Soviet Union and end of Cold War

in late eighties of the last century. That disintegration not

only ended the Cold War but also as a consequence of that,brought an abrupt end to the Afghan war. With the end of

Cold War, the Western World lost interest in the Mujahids

who were nourished and groomed to take on the Soviets

in Afghanistan, and exited the region. They left behind

an unruly militia numbering in hundreds of thousands,

many of whom were volunteers from other Islamic states

who had come to ght a holy war for Islam against the

communist invasion. Needless to say the Mujahids credited

themselves for the collapse of Soviet Union and their defeat

in Afghanistan, even though nothing can be far from thetruth. Yet ironically that victory essentially left hundreds of

thousands of Mujahids without a job in hand. And there is

nothing more dangerous than an unemployed mercenary.

For Pakistan, the real problem was to manage and contain

this huge army of mercenaries many of whom had married

local women in the Af-Pak region and have settled down

in its own restive NWFP and FATA region. But amidst this

problem was also an opportunity for it to give shape to its low

intensity conict game plan it had prepared for Kashmir to

settle score for the 1971 debacle and loss of Siachen. Andthus the trained, battle hardened Mujahids were the best lot

to give shape to it. One can look back and see that there

was an amazing coinciding of the end of the Afghan War

and the beginning of terrorism in Kashmir. Those Mujahids

who had gone back to their home states after the end of the

war started similar campaigns over there too against the

incumbent regimes. But the bloodiest of spates of terrorism

was witnessed in Kashmir where the foreign mercenaries

eventually hijacked the Kashmir agenda and started the

waging of a new wave of bloody terrorism on the Indian

state. The false indoctrination was that after Afghanistan it

was turn of Kashmir to get liberated.

The Repeat of History- Would South Asiabecome a Future Economic Paradise or aPerpetual Place of Anarchy?

More than two decades down the line, this year seems to be

a harbinger of the repeat of history about to happen, even

though things have changed much in both Kashmir and

Pakistan. It can now be stated with impunity that the exit of

US and its allied forces from Afghanistan would be similarly

portrayed by Taliban as its victory against the West, the way

they had portrayed the withdrawal of the Soviets as their

victory. While US might have to a great extent succeeded in

neutralizing the ability of Al Qaeda to plot another 9/11 from

their bases in Afghanistan, Taliban continues to remain a

potent force and perhaps a much stronger one than what it

was a few years back. It now has an equally strong offshoot

in Pakistan known as TTP or Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan with

support base and solidarity from a wide section of Pakistanis

who have been distraught with relentless drone strikes.

Today the Pakistani establishment faces severe threat from

not just the TTP but also from several other radical groups

who are slowly galvanizing against the government, which

they consider nothing more than a pawn in the hands of

the West. The exit of US and allied forces would invariably

embolden the Talibans counterpart in Pakistan to increase

their war against the government and dislodge it in the

same manner. For the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Pakistani

regime would be perhaps their next target and would throw


LEAD ANALYSIS


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all its might behind their counterpart in Pakistan for fullling

the objective. Thus for a hapless Pakistani Government

the only way to salvage itself from the predicament would

either be to create massive employment opportunities

for the radicalized lot through substantial reforms in theireconomy and education sector, or take a shorter path by

channelizing this huge disgruntlement, rage and negative

force towards an external common adversary. Needless to

say, that common adversary for the Pakistani Army, ISI

and the radical Islamists groups would be India and the

Kashmir agenda, an emotive issue for them on which all of

them converge. One can also state that the radicals might

get so much emboldened in Pakistan after the exit of US

from Af-Pak region that even if the Pakistani Government

is reluctant to take the path of proxy war all over again,the radicalized lot might just do it anyway even if it means

going against the wish of the state. Thus for the Pakistani

establishment, the twin challenges would invariably be to

prevent the radicals from overwhelming their own state

and also perhaps make sure that they dont make a repeat

of 26/11 a norm, which would only plunge the whole of

South Asia into a massive crisis in case India is forced by

its public opinion to retaliate. Therefore the near failure of

cross-border terrorism in J&K and the disillusionment of

the populace over there notwithstanding, there is a very

high chance of the resurgence of cross-border terrorism

in J&K. The profundity and the probability of the same can

be gauged from the fact that Indias active participation in

the modernization of the Afghan economy as well as its

infrastructure and military is not something to the liking

of the Taliban. And therefore their antagonism for India is

compounded by these factors in addition to the fact that for

the radical Islamist groups, India is a key part of the axis,

which consists of Israel and US among others. Thus, for

Taliban, the Pakistan based terror groups like LeT and JeM,

and the remaining fringe elements of Al Qaeda, US and

Israel might be distant targets difcult to hit but India in the

immediate neighborhood remains very much a possible and

viable ground for continuing the mayhem. This resurgence

of terrorism might become even bloodier for the fact that

this time it might not at all get any support from the Kashmir

populace, and from a large section Pakistani moderates

fed up with radicalism, which would antagonize the radicals

even more leading more internal turmoil in Pakistan.

A Well Governed and Prosperous Pakistanis in Indias Interest

While defense preparedness against any kind of externalmisadventure is essentially the need of the day, it is

also in Indias interest to make sure that Pakistan is not

overwhelmed by radicals and devastated as a society. India

can never be an oasis of development surrounded by failed

states. It is thus imperative for India to create opportunities

and make them a part of the growth story. Easier said than

done perhaps, but perhaps it is through increased economic

integration and by making Pakistan have stake in South

Asias growth story that one can eventually defeat radicals

and help the moderates in Pakistan have a greater say. In

the recent past World Banks Vice President for South Asia

Region Isabel Guerrero stated, If Pakistan can have more

trade with India, it would have a huge impact rst of all in

the bilateral relations, but also for Pakistans growth. That

is the answer to get out of the low equilibrium through high

growth.

Javed R Laghari , Chairman of Pakistans Higher Education

Commission, in an article in Newsweek namely, The

Real War with India published in July 2011 wrote :

Sixty-four years ago, Pakistan and India started

out evenly enough in terms of education and skilled-

workforce levels. India has overshot us and is now

competing with the big boys, swiftly and dedicatedly

catching up with the developed world in higher

education, science, technology, innovation, and

research. Pakistan cannot afford to be left behind.

We cannot allow security threats, the nancial and

ideological allure of Islamist radicalism, and bad

governance to defeat us


LEAD ANALYSIS


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In the same article he had further stated that Pakistan needs

to take a leaf out of Indias book to realize the possible.

But nevertheless the fear of a resurgence of terrorism and

radicalism does remain which has the potential to wreak

havoc in the whole of South Asia. And Pakistans moderates

would invariably need a helping hand from India to defeat

this menace.

The China Factor- Would Globalizationthwart a face-off or would economic rivalryinstigate one?

While the fact remains that the tentacles of globalization have

invariably made full scale war between any two developing

and globally integrated nations extremely difcult, on the ip

side, it is this quest for higher economic growth, the quest to

defeat rival nations in the economic war, and the insatiable

thirst for hitherto unexplored sources of energy to fuel thiseconomic growth, that has the potential to bring competing

nations to confrontation. One has to keep in mind that

Japans preemptive attack on Pearl Harbor that pulled in

US into the Second World War was essentially because of

USAs oil embargo on Japan which was about to put severe

strain on oil-starved Japans imperial agenda. One also has

to keep in mind that Germanys invasion of Soviet Union

and its determination to keep Romania under its fold had

more to do with the reserves of fossil fuel in those places

than issues of Aryan superiority.

Is Chinas military build-up mere posturing

or is it a harbinger of something worse?A couple of more dangerous factors would thus perhaps

compound the possible resurgence of terrorism around the

2014 period. For quite some time now it has become evident

that China has been spending massively to shore up its

military preparedness not just in South China Sea region but

also in the Tibetan plateau right across the Indian border.

It now has almost 22 army divisions or around 330000

personnel in addition to a wide array of Dong- Feng series of

MRBM and ICBM, S-300 Surface to Air Missiles and several

squadrons of frontline Su-27 and Su-30 deployed there.

The Qinghai-Lhasa train network can rapidly deploy several

brigades of personnel in no time from the hinterland to the

borders. Likewise, there have been substantial infrastructure

upgradations with construction of motorized roads right

up to the border. Similar infrastructure development and

deployment by China can be witnessed in Aksai Chin along

the LAC as well as in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. The

issue therefore that needs deliberation is whether all these

are mere casual indulgence on the part of the Chinese

establishment or is it that there are some sinister game plan

gradually taking shape behind the faade of unassuming

infrastructure development? Chinas creeping acquisition of

territory along the LAC, by taking advantage of the undened

border, has been going on for long. Add to this its complete

intransigence with respect to settling border issues through

talks and an uncanny similarity to the way things had build

up before the 1962 Indo-China war. The same smiling faces

and lectures on peaceful rise of China continue even while

military build-up and occasional loose talks by Chinese

diplomats reveal something else. While India might no longer

be the passive dove it was in 1962, the presumption and the


LEAD ANALYSIS


7/26

general perception in China still remains that it can any day

browbeat India to subservience. If the massive military build-

up in Tibet is only for military posturing, and to have a better

control over the restive province of Tibet, then probably it

would not be that big a cause of worry. But if it is for a repeatof 1962 then it is surely a cause of a major anxiety.

The Energy-Water Conundrum.

Indo-Chinese rivalry in energy is well known. It is also a

known fact that China has been considerably successful in

wresting the initiative to have a strong energy footprint in

Central Asia and Africa with India not lagging far behind. But

as if the energy rivalry between energy starved India and

China was not enough, the emerging water rivalry certainly

adds more to the growing list of geopolitical stress in South

Asia. Chinas alleged construction of dams and its endeavor

to divert the path of the Brahmaputra (known as Tsangpo in

Tibet) would have cataclysmic effects on both the ecology

and economy of Northeast India. So if it eventually happens

that way, what are the options left for India? Therefore, even

though war is in nobodys interest, face-offs cannot be ruled

out, and thus, spending on defense has to be shored up

keeping the geopolitical uidity of the region in mind.

Modernization of Indias Armed Force-Steady But Too Slow.

With respect to Indias military modernization, even though

by early next year India would have two nuclear submarines

in its arsenal (indigenously built Arihant and INS Chakra

taken on lease from Russia) and an additional aircraft

carrier in its kitty in addition to several newly commissioned

warships, frictions with China or Pakistan would essentially

be land based with air force and army playing bigger roles

that navy. Unfortunately Indian Air Force would continue to

be lacking far behind China with the rst combat plane from

the MMRCA deal not reaching the IAF kitty before 2016 andthat too only if the deal with Dassault for Rafale is signed by

this year. By the admission of the Indian Defense Minister

in the parliament, the rst of the Fifth Generation Fighter

Aircraft namely Su-50 that India is jointly developing with

Russia would not be forthcoming before 2019. Moreover

it would perhaps not be before 2014 that Agni V would

be made operational. The Mountain offensive Corps that

India is planning to raise would perhaps take a minimum

ve years to be operational. And even though India has

considerable missile deterrent in terms of its vast array ofAgni series of missile in addition to Brahmos and a newly

developed ballistic missile shield, the army is plagued by

the lack of modern artillery whose procurement has started

only now and would take time to replenish the depleted

arsenal. Therefore if some hawkish elements in Chinese

Establishment indeed have some sinister design in mind

then perhaps it would try to execute it around 2014 because

in another few years from that time the Indian Armed Forces

would be completely modernized. However, certain alacrity

that has been shown by the Indian Government for the

past few years, in terms raising two mountain divisions,

sanctioning construction of several hundred kilometers

of roads in Indo-China border, deployment of squadrons

of Sukhois, Brahmos and Agni missiles in Northeast in

addition to recent clearance of purchase of M777 ultra light

howitzers that are specically meant to be airlifted at short

notice for mountain warfare, all point towards urgency in

preparing for any eventuality. Lately though, Indian state is

waking up to the threats.

The Maoist Factor- Indias Biggest Threat

Yet the story does not end here only. The period of

2014 would also be the time when the war against Maoists

in India reach a decisive phase. The Government of Indias

ofcial gures now put the armed Maoist cadres somewhere

close to 46000, which is perhaps more than the strength of

armed forces of several smaller European nations. Out of

this, an estimated 8000 Maoist cadres are heavily armedwith sophisticated weapon systems. Recent arrest of some


LEAD ANALYSIS


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of the top Maoist leaders have also revealed the extent

of expertise they have developed in terms of producingweapons systems on their own and the extensive supply

chain they have in place. Yet somewhere down the line

governments own confusion with respect to how it should

deal with the menace is making the situation more complex.

It still continues to think it is a law & order issue to be dealt

by individual state governments. Lack of decisive action

and continuing with the belief that it is more of a socio-

economic problem in spite of the evidences suggesting

otherwise is only creating the stage for eventually bringing

the army into it for a full-scale military offensive. The

Maoist agenda is pretty clear with respect to toppling

the Indian political economic system someday and they

are gradually penetrating into newer regions as well as

creating an environment of terror through targeted killings

and kidnappings. By 2014 Indias economy would be a

near $2.5 trillion and as per reports of Indias Intelligence

Bureau, Maoists have it in their game plan to hit India hard

by targeting its economic infrastructure, something that

India can ill afford. Such economic casualties would hit

India perhaps more than anything else .Needless to say, a

full-scale conict scenario would invariably be a bloodied

one. One also has to take into account the consolidation of

all the northeastern insurgent groups that is taking place

in Myanmar with Paresh Baruah group of ULFA, PREPAK,

NDFB, KYKL and NSCN(K) all coming together under a

new umbrella to wage a renewed war against the Indian

state. Add to this fact that there are clear evidence of

growing nexus between the northeast based insurgent

groups and Maoists.

Concluding Remark- Prepare for the worstbut hope for a Serene South Asia

The moot question therefore that needs deliberation is

whether India is prepared to face external and internal

aggressions at the same time from 2014 onwards in case

such a scenario arises.. A full-blown war like scenario at a

time when India is besieged with internal security issues is

what Indias adversaries would consider an ideal situation

for them. The issue therefore for us to deliberate is whether

India as a nation is prepared for that or not. Fact remains

that Indias armed forces have gone through considerable

transformation in the last one decade time since Kargil

happened in the summer of 1999. Since then, according to

SIPRI, India imported arms worth $50 billion while it is on

the verge of acquiring arms worth $100 billion in the next

one decade.

The last decade saw several major deals getting cleared

including the deals for 123 AJT Hawks for Indian Air Force,

230 Su-30MKI, eight P-8I Posiedons, six C-130j tactical

transport aircrafts(order for another six being negotiated),

10 C-17 strategic air lifters, 80 Mi-17V helicopters for Air

Force ( order for another 59 is being negotiated), Smerch

Rocket launchers, induction of Pinaka MBRL,, Akash and

Brahmos missiles, acquisition of T-90s and Arjun Main

Battle Tank , while two aircraft carriers and three nuclear

are being constructed in addition to Scorpene Submarines

being build. While Indian Navy would be acquiring 90 new

ships in the next one decade, Indian Coast Guard which has

been undergoing substantial revamp since the happening

of the 26/11 seaborne terror attack in Mumbai, is expected

to induct 250 ships and 100 aircrafts in the next ve years.

Yet there is much more that is needed to be done at the

grassroots level and especially in modernizing the foot

soldier. It is not just the modernization but the pace at which

it is happening is important especially when armies in the

neighborhood are doing it at a breakneck speed.

Likewise a considerable amount of revamp in undergoing

in the internal security arena also. In the last three years

alone, as per data released by Union Home ministry, India

purchased the following for its Central Armed Police Forces

primarily for counterinsurgency operations.

89,641 light weight BP jackets,

67,965 AK-47 ries;


LEAD ANALYSIS


9/26

16,430 Assault ries;

2537 X-95 assault ries for CRPF

34377 Carbine Machine For BSF

1,805 Automatic Grenade Launchers;

2,608 Glock Pistols;

1,164 hand-held Thermal Imagers;

1,576 MP-5s;

8,109 PNS Weapons sights;

105 Mine protected vehicles;

8 ALH Helicopters;

118 Light Armoured Troop Carriers;

3,174 Deep Search Metal Detectors;

9,792 Passive Night Vision Binoculars etc

25 Remote Controlled Improvised Explosive Devices,

RCIED Jammers for CRPF Road Opening parties.

16,791 Digital VHF/UHF hand held radio sets for BSF

has been sanctioned.

Under the Modernisation of Police Force scheme,

the state level police forces have been provided with

26465 bullet proof jackets, 1077786 assualt ries and

17824 vehicles.

Yet in spite all this, much more is needed to be done to

tackle the menace of left wing and Islamist terrorism. India

is far from being completely secure from all kinds of internal

and external aggression and the government needs to

realize that spending on internal and external security isnot wastage but a key investment in securing the economy.

There is also a need for cohesive action and Indian states

should realize that they are part of one republic and not

individual states of a confederation. Therefore till the time

centre-state relations are given a new meaning, India

security would suffer. Preventing the Central Government

from having greater say in internal security matters in the

name of federalism is essentially harming India.

The Worst Case Scenario

In the worst case scenario, a two-rontal war would

completely tie up the army and spurt in terrorism in

Kashmir would stretch the army manned Rashtriya Rifes

to the limit, giving it very limited leeway to release men

and material or the anti-Maoist operations. The CRPF

too would be stretched to the hilt while taking on both the

terrorism in J&K and Maoists. Thereore keeping all this in

mind, it is time or Indian Government to realize that military

preparedness cannot be done at snails pace withouttaking into account the worsening situations both internally

and externally. It is thereore also time to make security

a shared responsibility and allow the private sector have

at least the wherewithal to guards its own assets through

armed private security contractors. It is also time to shed

the inhibitions with respect to deense spending and realize

that economic well-being and a vibrant society is good only

till the time the nation is able to protect it. Or else, sel

created impediments through ignoring the plight o the

armed orces and their concerns, being miserly in security

spending to appease the sel-proclaimed peaceniks, not

trusting and taking India Inc into condence, not giving the

oot soldier his due respect and amenities would only be a

perect prelude to a spectacular disaster.

Time to redene South Asia- Name itGreater South Asia by Including China in it

While preparation for war is one way of avoiding

a real war, the other important way is essentially tomake every stakeholder in South Asia, including China


LEAD ANALYSIS


10/26

have a sense o shared responsibility in the uture o

the region. Today more than two-th o humanity existin South Asia and China. In the next ew decades two o

the three largest economies o the world would be India

and China and as the theatre o global economy shits to

Asia, the prominence o South Asia and China can only go

northwards. As per the estimates o Standard Chartered

Bank, Indias GDP would be $30 trillion by 2030 compared

to Chinas $73 Trillion and USAs $38 trillion. The World

economy that time would be $308 trillion meaning that

nearly one-third o the global GDP by 2030 would be

in Greater South Asia by 2030. Thereore in spite o the

looming shadows o ace-os, rivalries and haunting past

when nations in South Asia ought with each other, the

uture o this place hold magnetic possibilities given the

enormous potential o its human resource and increasing

technological prowess. No doubt the world would benet

immensely rom it. But it is also important or India and

China to make people in the neighborhood benet rom

it. For, it is only through more economic progress that the

quality o lie o so many people living in Greater South

Asia can be improved. In spite o considerable geopolitical

tensions between US and China, they never think abouta war or the simple reason o strong economic stakes

they have in each other. While Chinese economy depends

much on US markets, the Chinese SEZs are imbued with

American investments be it rom GE, Microsot or Intel and

many others. It is time or India and China to develop such

shared stakes in Greater South Asia. It is only then that

none would think the destruction o other as benecial and

none would presume development as mutually exclusive. It

is perhaps only then that true peace and progress would

usher in extended South Asia without lowering guard. And

it Is only then that radicalism can be truly deeated in thereal sense, or, it is lack o economic opportunity and social

discord, coupled with desperations o government to keep

the unemployed, disgruntled fock intoxicated with passion

that drives nations to war. Integrated economic progress is

thus perhaps the best bet against it.


LEAD ANALYSIS


11/26

Threat to Critical Infrastructure- Is India Ready toDefend its National Assets?

Pathikrit Payne

On 28th August, 2012, as per Press Inormation Bureau,

the Minister o State or Home, Jitendra Singh stated in the

Parliament that since 2009, there have been 1183 incidents

o Maoist attacks that targeted economic inrastructure.

Such inrastructures that have been at the receiving

end o Maoist mayhem included properties o Public

Sector/Private Sector Units, Railways property, powerinrastructure, telephone exchanges in addition to schools

and panchayat buildings. The Minister had also stated

that Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Orissa are the

worst aected states in terms o Maoist violence. Further,

the MoS had inormed in the Parliament that seven Delhi

districts are now Maoist infuence which vindicates the act

that the Maoists are gradually shiting their ocus towards

urban bases.

Likewise, the massive terror crackdown in South India

last week which resulted in the arrest o 17 suspects rom

Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh exposed

that the alleged conspirators had planned among others to

target Indias prime nuclear installations like that o Kaiga

Nuclear Power Plant along with several other deence

establishment spread over South India.

The common thread that runs between the threat rom

both the Maoist and the Islamic terror groups, as can

be gauged rom recent revelations, is that both are now

seriously planning to target Indias critical economicinrastructure. The issue o radical Islamic terror groups

planning to target Indias critical economic inrastructure

and vital installations is not new as in the last couple o

years, on several occasions; Intelligence Bureau did send

terror alerts to several states regarding plans o cross

border jihadi groups like LeT planning to strike dams and

nuclear installations.

Indias economic and industrial inrastructure today spans

across the length and breadth o the country and is nolonger restricted to a mere ew corridors. Even some

o relatively economically backward but resource rich

states like Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Odisha have

recorded massive investment commitments rom Indian

and global industrial houses. In 2011, the our o the

worst Maoist aected states o India attracted combined

investments worth Rs 26.19 lakh crore. While Odisha

attracted investment proposals worth Rs 12.09 lakh crore,

Jharkhand received proposals worth Rs 9.13 lakh crore

ollowed by Chhattisgarh at Rs 4.56 lakh crore and Bihar

with Rs 2.38 lakh crore.

It is a oregone conclusion now that the Maoists are not

ghting or development but or their own hegemonic

power interests and thereore any kind o industrialisation

which might bring jobs and development and wean away

the erstwhile distraught populace o their bastions towards

progress would be violently thwarted and disrupted by

them. I that is one reason or their systematic targeting


LEAD ANALYSIS


12/26

o economic inrastructures, the other primary reason

invariably is to hit India where it hurts the most, i.e. the

economy. For the Islamic terror groups too, they know that

hitting any major or critical economic inrastructure would

not just give them instant mileage and global ootagebut would also wreak havoc or the economy in terms o

the psychological impact it would have on the potential

investors. The incident o 26/11 and the psychological

impact it created was a testimony to that.

Thereore the moot question that needs deliberation is

whether India is prepared to deal with this kind o attempted

physical onslaught on its inrastructure or not. While there

has been a considerable augmentation in the numbers o

central and state level police orces ghting Maoists as

well as much money has been spent on the developmento Quick Reaction Teams or cities to deal with 26/11 type

incident, nevertheless it would be impossible or the state

to provide blanket security to every critical inrastructure,

most o which now are in the private sector domain, without

making security a shared responsibility. Even though

many state governments are gradually coming up with

their own industrial security orces on the lines o CISF,

still such orces can only come or restoration o order or

or countering a terror attack. They cannot be permanently

there or point deence or pre-empting a terror attack or

thwarting a Maruti Suzuki type mayhem by an unruly

mob o employees. For that, the private industrial houses

would have to essentially depend on the private security

companies. But the Maruti Suzuki incident in Manesar

showed that mere presence o private security personnel

would be o no help unless they are specially trained or

riot control and counter terror operations and have a well

laid Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) to ollow in case

o any eventuality.

Thereore the need o the hour is essentially to train Indiashuge but ill trained orce o private security personnel

most o whom know nothing better than merely saluting in

attention. There are an estimated 5 million private security

personnel and their training is o utmost critical importance

i India has to protect its critical inrastructure. It is also very

important on the part o the government to proceed on the

issue o granting license or bulk procurement o arms

by select private security companies or their personnel.

Even though the government had issued advisories (as

per media reports) to major companies possessing critical

national assets to deploy trained manpower to counter

possible acts o terror, security o any major private sector

company requisitioning the service o a private security

company can never be absolutely ool proo unless they

have the permission to carry some or the other kind o

sophisticated small arms to deend themselves.

Should India Inc invest money to its ownsecurity companies?

While this issue is still preposterous but nevertheless given

the kind o unprecedented threat that Indian economy is

acing rom terror groups o all shades and colours, it would

not be surprising i India Inc essentially starts thinking

on that line. The issue at stake is not just to saeguardinvestments inside India but also abroad. Recently

AFISCO, an Indian consortium o steel companies led

by SAIL and which also includes NMDC, Rashtriya Ispat

Nigam Limited, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power, have

been given mining rights in Hajigak or the purpose o

setting up a 7 million tonne steel plant and an 800 MW

power plant. The mine in Hajigak is estimated to have 1.8

billion tonne o high grade iron ore reserves. The entire

estimated investment that India would make there would

be to the tune o $11 billion. Invariably such a scheme

o thing would be a sore in the eye o Indias bte noire

Pakistan and Taliban and thereore in the atermath o the

American exit rom Aghanistan in 2014, it would become

imperative or India to develop the wherewithal to protect

such vital overseas investments. Needless to say Indias

private security agencies would have a key role to play to

secure such investments but beore that, they have to train

their manpower to that level.

Overall, as things stand today, the threat to Indias critical

inrastructure would only keep increasing and in additionto the eorts o the Government o India, India Inc too

would have to spend or say invest a part o its revenue in

the development o a well equipped security manpower to

saeguard Indias investments.


LEAD ANALYSIS


13/26

The Possibility of Defence Spending Cut and its Impact onIndias Operational Preparedness.It would not augur well for India if India reduces its much needed spending on

defence and homeland security arena.-Pathikrit Payne

The possibility of India going in for a Rs 20,000 crore

defence spending cut in the current scal might not be

too good a news for either the defence establishments,

internal security establishments or the defence equipmentmanufacturers who have been betting on the Indian market

against the backdrop of major defence spending cuts

across Europe and US markets. For the present scal, as

per the reports that emerged in the media, the Government

of India has asked the Ministry of Defence to prioritise the

defence procurements and go in for only those equipments

whose purchase is extremely critical under the present

circumstances. Incidentally this itself comes against the

backdrop of Defence Ministry talking about an additional

Rs 45000 crore allocation for the current scal to continue

with Indias defence modernisation which is already quite a

few years behind schedule.

The issue of the possible defence spending cut should be

seen from three major perspectives. They are:

1. The geopolitical scenario across South Asia, including

the deteriorating situation in Pakistan

2. The modernisation of Pakistan and Chinese Defence

establishments and their increasing coordination.

3. The possible impact of such defence spending cut onthe homeland security aspect of India.

It was earlier this year that the previous Chief of Staff

of Indian Army, General (Retd) V K Singh had informed

the Government about the depleting stock of critical

ammunitions with Indian Army including the stock of Tank

ammunitions wherein in a letter to the Defence Ministry he

had stated that the stock of Indian artillery and air defence

ammunitions might just not last for more than two days in

the event of a possibility of a war. Against this backgroundthe Government of India in the recent past had to clear

deals for the purchase of 25,000 Invar Missiles for T-90

tanks, 10,000 Konkur Missiles for mechanised infantry

among several other deals. Reports also emerged recently

that the incumbent Chief of Army Staff General V K Singh

is slated to meet the Prime Minister and brief him about

the critical shortages of key equipment and ammunitions

that the Indian Army faces.

The issue of defence modernisation, critics would claim, is

a continuous process and that even if there is a temporary

lull in it and the purchases are carried forward for the next

year, would not have that much impact on the operational

preparedness of the nations armed forces. However,

anyone conversant with the way Indias acquisition process

drags on for decades and often gets mired in red tape,

bureaucratic juggernauts as also issues of impulsive and

random blacklisting of defence product manufacturers,

would appreciate the discomfort among the defence

establishments regarding the ramication of such defencespending cuts. Take for example the cases of some critical

deals which might get affected because of such expenditure

cut. The near $20 billion deal for 126 MMRC Jets with

Dassualt of France for their Rafale aircraft is still being

negotiated after the concerned companys product was

declared L1 in the recent past. For more than a decade now

the Indian Air Force has been facing a critical shortage or a

gap in its air superiority because of the near obsolescence

of the MiG-21 jets, which were almost half the eet of IAF

for a long time. The other reason for the critical gap had

been the relentless delay in the induction of the home-grown LCA Tejas which is yet to get the Final Operational


LEAD ANALYSIS


14/26

Clearance. Thus, IAF had been pitching on the eet of its

Su-30MKI, ongoing modernisation of Mig-29s and Mirage-

2000s and the induction of the Dassault Rafale MRCA as

quickly as possible. However, if the negotiations and the

nal signing of the contract are pushed to the next year, the

delivery of the aircrafts would also be similarly delayed as

the norm is that the delivery starts almost four years from

the signing of the contract.

The other critical deals that might also be affected would

be that of the purchase of 22 Apache AH-64 LongBow

helicopters and 15 Chinook Helicopters from Boeing, as

also the deal for an additional six C-130 J aircrafts and

M-777 ultra Light Howitzers. Each of these acquisition

programmes is extremely critical from the Armed Forces

point of view as these deals are key to fructifying its ability

to implement the Cold Start Doctrine as also the ability

to ght a two frontal war. There is also the deal for an

additional six MRTT (Multi Role Tanker Transport) hanging

in balance for which the two bidders were Airbus with its

A-330 MRTT and IL-78 of Russian origin. This too is critical

as mid air refuel tankers act as major force multipliers. It

would not portend good for India if the signing of contracts

for all these projects is postponed to the next year.

The other critical issue which needs equal deliberation

is that of the impact of Governments austerity measure

on the homeland security aspect of India. While nothing

concrete has so far been stated, it would not be surprising

if the spending cuts in the defence arena are followed by

similar measures in internal security spending. India is

going through a very critical stage so far as its internal

security is concerned with major modernisation drive of the

Central Police Forces as well as the State Police Forces

going on in order to improve their repower and operational

preparedness. This has become critical because of the

triangular threat that India is now facing in its internalsecurity theatre from the Maoists, the home-grown radical

elements like Indian Mujahideen, SIMI, insurgent groups of

northeast India as well as secessionist radical elements like

LeT which are backed by Pakistan. Therefore the operational

preparedness of the Indian internal security forces would

have to be up-graded to execute both urban counter-terror

measures as well as jungle warfare capabilities. Such up-

gradation of capabilities of nearly 800,000 Central Police

Personnel and near 2 million state police personnel needs

major investments on communication systems, repower,

combat clothing, accommodation, vehicles, logistics as

also surveillance and airlifting capabilities. With the battle

against the Maoists reaching a decisive stage, Indian can

hardly afford to cut on police modernisation and leave the

forces in the lurch. It would also have to be kept in mind

that whenever a nation has been invaded from outside, its

internal radical and secessionist forces have always sided

with the invaders against the state. Therefore weakening

Indias war preparedness and the possibility of any are-

up with Pakistan or China would only embolden Indias

Maoists and other radical groups to increase their subversive

activities and hit the state harder.

Therefore, from the perspective of Indias risk environment

with the possibility of a two frontal war with Pakistan and

China no longer being a distant but a distinct possibility,

with the deteriorating situation in Pakistan and theincreasing possibility of a new wave of terrorism from that

place being rammed into India and with the Maoists arming

themselves with more lethal repower, India can hardly

afford to reduce its defence and internal security spending

as most of these spending. The unfortunate saga is that the

axe would invariably fall on capital expenditure as revenue

expenditures or non-planned expenditures can hardly be

curtailed. The Issue of containing the scal decit is no

doubt important from the economic point of view, but that

can also be achieved through augmentation of revenue

through disinvestments on a large scale as also cuttingdown on major wasteful expenditures in other areas instead

of putting the axe on defence spending. In its quest to

make Indian economy strong, any effort to reduce defence

expenditure might make India vulnerable from external

and internal aggressions which would have a far bigger

cascading effect on investor sentiment and economic

wellbeing of the nation. Remember 26/11?


LEAD ANALYSIS


15/26

o anticipate nature of future attacks, it is important to examine

the terrorist and insurgent groups that have or may target

megacities. By analyzing their attack strategies, tactics and

capabilities, important insights can be collected. While there

are many terrorist organizations actively targeting India,

they have been categorised in ve loose groupings based

on their ideologies, capabilities and tactics. While from

intelligence or law enforcement perspective, it is importantto scrutinize each organization individually, for the purposes

of this study, it would sufce to identify the general attack

strategy.

International Jihadist Network

The International Jihadist Network is a collective label

for all Islamist terror organizations based in Pakistan

or Bangladesh like Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-

Mohammed (JeM), Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI-B)

etc. While markedly different in their leadership structure,

ideologies and objectives, these groups have been known to

share similar tactics, capabilities and strategies. Moreover,

in many occasions they have cooperated with each other.

These groups have been collectively responsible for a

majority of the attacks carried out in Delhi and Mumbai,

including most audacious attacks like Mumbai Terror Attack

of 2008 and Attack on the Parliament in 2001.

First distinguishing feature of these groups is the fact that

they have safe havens beyond Indian borders as well as in

insurgency-affected areas within India. This means that they

have better capability of recruiting and training their cadres

and more time to plan an attack undisturbed by security

forces crackdown. This allows them to be more efcient in

their attacks. The time gained by not being under constant

pressure of evading arrest, allows these groups to time their

attacks to more symbolic date and time. This is an importantinference. For example, the widely-accepted explanation for

why there was no attack after the killing of Osama bin Laden

was that Al Qaeda did not have a spectacular attack planned

waiting to be launched on a special date. They were under

constant pressure to execute each attack as soon as it was

planned, lest its secrecy was compromised under pressure

from security forces. However, for terror groups capable of

waiting in safety of their havens, free from such pressure, an

attack can easily be time to coincide a specic date that may

carry meaning.

It should be also noted that many of these groups, especially

LeT and JeM receive sponsorship from a large group of

foreign donors including government institutions, which

allows them greater resources and technical know-how. Most

vehement example of such resources is David Headley, an

American citizen who reconnoitred possible targets for LeT

before the Mumbai Terror Attack. A terrorist with American

passport is truly a valuable resource for South Asian terror

groups.

On the other hand, their dependence on foreign safe

havens and sponsors also means that they are at mercy of

international events and diplomatic pressure. This has been

validated by the decrease in number of attacks by Pakistan-

based groups in the last four years, which are believed to have

been pressurized by Pakistani Government agencies as well

as their diverted attention towards the War in Afghanistan.

Moreover, their foreign nature also makes it more difcult

for them to operate in the megacities as their cadres are

obviously outsiders. This allows an important advantage for

security forces in their efforts towards prevention.


India Security Review: Understanding Terror Threats to MegacitiesThis is the rst article of a series titled India Security Review that will provide a comprehensive assessment of

Indian Homeland Security over coming months. The next article on regional perspectives on Indian security

will be published in the next issue of SWI Security Intelligence Report

LEAD ANALYSIS


16/26

Another aspect of their foreign nature is that they are

capable of sea borne attack which would not be risked by

an India-based group which would be subject to scrutiny on

both port of departure as well as arrival. Thus coastline of

Mumbai presents a severe vulnerability in their case.

These groups have been known to use superior explosive

devices and better nances. They are also the only groups

capable of implementing a dayeen attack. However, their

greatest strength is the ability to foster other groups within

India and supplying them with resources and the technical

know-how. This brings us to the other threat namely

indigenous groups.

Indigenous Islamist GroupsThe indigenous Islamist groups - most notable being Indian

Mujahideen (IM) - have been existent in India for a long

time, but seem to have become more active in the recent

groups. This may be attributed to greater pressure on

Pakistan-based groups to limit their activities in India, which

has led them to pass the baton. Barring the Mumbai Attack

of 2008, these groups are believed to have been behind all

the attacks carried out in Megacities since 2007.

These groups, being of Indian origin, face completelyopposite advantages and handicaps compared to the

international groups. They are constantly under pressure

from security forces and therefore have are unlikely to

waste time waiting for the right date. However, given their

permanent presence in India, they have a much quicker

turnaround time and can launch attacks in quick succession,

as was seen in 2008.

Similarly, lack of safe havens and greater international

support means that they are the poorer cousins of LeT. This

means that since training is hard to come by, their personnel

are more valuable. They are unlikely to carry out any risky

missions that may result in loss of good cadres. It also

means that even small number of arrests by security forces

may disrupt their operations, as was seen after 2008 nation-

wide arrests and encounters of IM operatives. This paucity

of their resources is also reected in their inferior explosive

devices, which are usually based on ammonium nitrate,

instead RDX which is common for international groups.

However, what they lack in resources is made up in tacticsand organization. The indigenous groups have displayed

far superior tactics than any international group, especially

in the case of synchronization of explosions and use of

secondary device. For example, the Ahmedabad Bombings

of 2008 perpetrated by IM consisted of 21 explosions city-

wide within 70 minutes, which is much superior to any attackby an international group in India. More importantly, IM used

secondary devices in this particular case, planting devices

to go off in hospitals with enough time-lag to hit the victims

of rst wave of blasts being rushed in. This indicates that

they had studied the emergency response times, inner-city

distances and pattern of ambulance services.

On the similar logic, a hypothesis can be proposed that due

the very lack of resources may propel indigenous groups

to be more effective and adaptive in their behaviour. Thisis akin to the resource curse theory that overabundance

of resources remove incentives for nations to develop.

Similarly, it may be the case that paucity of resources may

force indigenous groups to evolve and adopt more effective

tactics since they face greater challenges. If so is the case,

they may end up posing a far greater threat for India in the

coming future.

Hindu Right-wing Terrorist Organizations

Hindu Right-wing Terrorist Organizations are relatively

new phenomenon comprising of lesser-known groups like

Abhinav Bharat. These groups have loose ideologies and

unclear objectives. Given that they have repeatedly refused

to take responsibility for any attack, it is very difcult to

identify which attacks are they responsible for. However,

they have been suspected in at least four attacks across

India.

The Hindu terror groups have displayed a much inferior


LEAD ANALYSIS


17/26

technical know-how and technical capabilities than previously

discussed groups. They have been known to use fuel bombs

indicating lack of resources. They have also shown a surprising

lack of operational security. Most important information to

be drawn from their case is linkages of crime and terrorism.According to the confession by Swami Aseemanand, a

member of Abhinav Bharat, lacking the technical capabilities

of building explosive devices, the group had hired outsiders

to build and deploy bombs. Notably, these mercenaries were

Muslims. This indicates that there are certain individuals

active in India who are available for hire as bomb-makers

and they operate independent of ideologies.

An important factor to note with regards to Hindu right-

wind groups is that given their loosely-dened ideology it isvery difcult to ascertain their preferences or motives. This

means that it is much more difcult to predict their target

choices or attack strategies since their activities are based

on inconsistent logic. In other words, of all terrorist groups,

Hindu terror groups have displayed an extraordinary

amount of irrationality in their behaviour. Accordingly, it is

very difcult to anticipate their next attack.

Maoists

Maoists, especially the Communist Party of India (Maoist),

have been leading insurgency in the eastern India for

several decades. Although politically motivated, the Maoists

have never been known to have attacked either Megacity.

In fact, they have little presence in either Delhi or Mumbai.

According to their military doctrine, Maoists are likely to

refrain from any insurgent activity in an urban area for

decades to come. However, this does not stop them from

executing a one-time terrorist attack in Delhi or Mumbai.

An attack carried out by Maoists would most likely be an

assassination attempt of a specic individual, probably

a government ofcial or a political gure. Choice of such

target would like be either revenge or an attempt to gain

political capital in their area of operation. Therefore, thetarget is likely to be someone directly involved in counter-

insurgency operations or someone in responsible for a

controversial policy being opposed by traditional political

base of the Maoists.

Another attack possible by the Maoists may be a desperate

attempt to force Government to ease military pressure

on them. Such an attack would most likely be made on

military installations or critical infrastructure. Given the

need for popular support, Maoists usually refrain fromindiscriminate violence against civilians. Therefore, an

attack on crowded areas is unlikely. Attack on defence or

paramilitary installations is plausible but given the security

of such targets, it would be very difcult for the Maoists to

execute such an attack with using suicide attackers. If so,

such suicide attack by the Maoists would be their rst. More

likely, they may attack a critical infrastructure by sabotaging/

bombing. In such attacks, Maoists have prociency, and

if such an attack is large enough, it is bound to serve its

purpose.

International Terrorist Groups

Finally, there is the threat of International terrorist groups.

These are the groups that have are not ideologically

opposed to India but to a third country or entity, which they

may target within Indian boundary. For example, Palestinian

terrorist groups may attempt an attack on Israeli citizens or

buildings in India similar to their attack on Israeli athletes

during Berlin Olympics. While such an attack has not taken

place until now, it is entirely plausible. In fact, it is more likely

than an attack by the Maoists. Such an attack would most

likely be carried out against foreign embassies, consulates

or diplomats. However, specic religious institutions and

businesses may also be at threat.


LEAD ANALYSIS


18/26


Industrial SecurityWhen State Governments Dont CooperateIncident in Haldia is a lesson for Indian Industry

-Pathikrit Payne

The incident of Haldia Bulk Terminals, a joint venture

between ABG Ports and LDA of France, stalling its

operations in Haldia and deciding to quit the state of West

Bengal citing law & order problem, brings to the forth the

important issue of industrial security and what options are

left with the industry when a state government allegedly

does not provide adequate security. Law & Order being astate subject in India, the responsibility of the providing

adequate security for industrial hubs and maintaining

a conducive environment lies solely with the respective

state governments. In case of Haldia Bulk Terminals,

which invested around Rs 164 crore and entered into a

contract with Calcutta Port Trust to operate two of the four

mechanised berths of Haldia Port, it has been alleged

that the state government and the local police has been

reluctant to provide adequate security to the personnel

of the concerned company in the wake of a labour unrest

arising out of the retrenchment of 275 workers due to

paucity of work. It is alleged, as per media reports, that

Calcutta Port Trust was not giving enough work to Haldia

Bulk Terminals and was instead diverting work to another

company which handles operations in the non-mechanised

berths. As per media reports Haldia Bulk Terminals have

been incurring loss of an estimated Rs 2 crore per year,

as it was not getting enough cargo from the Calcutta Port

Trust for handling. As a result it was forced to retrench 275

employees which resulted in major law & order crisis in the

region. As per media reports, three ofcials of HBT and theirfamily members were abducted by unidentied assailants

at gunpoint and were later released with stern warning to

leave Haldia and never to return again. Reports state that

in spite of repeated distress calls to Haldia Police, help

never reached on time which is being seen as reluctance on

the part of the ruling party to take stringent action against

the alleged perpetrators who have allegiance to their labour

union and any action to protect the interest of the company

would send so-called wrong signals to the voters in a season

of crucial Panchayat elections in the state. The shocking

aspect of the entire incident has been that even though the

Calcutta High Court had ordered the state government to

provide adequate security to the concerned company and

its ofcials, and even though for that purpose the company

had already deposited Rs 17, 45,730 as a payment for

security provision, nothing was done to prevent the criminal

acts of abduction and intimidation. As a result of this

imbroglio, the management of HBT eventually decided

to quit the operations in Bengal which is reminiscent of

the manner in which the TATA employees in Singur were

continuously intimidated resulting in the eventual pullout

of the TATAs from Singur.

THE HELPLESSNESS OF INDUSTRY

The issue at hand which is a concern for the industry as

a whole is what can a company do when the protection

of its assets and employees become secondary to petty

political calculations of the government and polity? How

can a business house operate if the state police machinery

turns a blind eye towards alleged criminal acts under

political pressure? Who then takes care of the massive

amount of money already invested in the assets? Hindustan

Times reported CEO of HBT Gurpreet Malhi stating, We

were forced to walk out from Haldia as the agencies entrusted

with law and order openly abandoned their responsibility.

The existence of a business organisation in a particular

place and sound execution of business activities not only

benets the concerned organisation and its employees, but

also the state government in terms of tax payment, and the

immediate economic environment through the development

of ancillary businesses. The success of one major business

organisation in a particular place also works as a catalyst

in terms of attracting more investments in the region. On

SPECIAL FEATURE


19/26


the contrary, exit of a business house due to worsening law

& order situation or labour crisis invariably results in major

slump in economic activities in the region. A case in point

in Singur which was gradually thriving based on the major

investments of the Tata Group in the small car factory andwas about to become a major industrial hub. But after the

exit of Tatas from that place owing to law & order problem

and continued political opposition to the proposed small

car factory, Singur now resembles almost a desert owing to

lack of job opportunities and drying up of any investment.

Meanwhile Tata Motors relocation of the plant to Sanand in

Gujarat acted as a catalyst to bring in more investment from

automobile sector in that place with both Ford and Maruti

Suzuki lining up major investments in Gujarat. Haldia is

likely to face the same fate as that of Singur with the exit of

HBT as more of the ships would prefer to dock at Paradip.

WHAT IS THE BEST PRACTICE IN DEVELOPEDNATIONS?

In most of the developed countries, major businessorganisations are allowed to hire armed private security

contractors for perimeter security. In India private security

companies have not yet been granted the permission to

procure small arms on their own. As a result, industry

is often found to be guarded by unarmed personnel and

completely depend on the local police for security related

issues. The security of employees of any organisation is no

doubt the responsibility of that organisation but what can

any business organisation do if it is not provided adequate

help by the states police machinery owing to political

pressure? Does it then have any other option left other than

to pullout from that place?

ALLOW PRIVATE SECTOR TO SEEK CENTRAL

HELP DIRECTLY IF STATE GOVERNMENTS DO

NOT PROVIDE ADEQUATE SECURITYLaw & Order being a state subject in India, police have

often been found to towing to the line of the ruling party

and rarely does it take a neutral stand. Even in the case

of the HBT, the Calcutta High Court expressed shock at

the sheer apathy of the local administration and rued the

fact that in spite of major tensions in the Haldia dock, no

senior police ofcer visited that place. Given this kind of a

situation, it is time to both allow private sector to have its

own armed security for securing its men and material and

also giving it the option to directly requisition central help

in case it nds that help from state police machinery is not

forthcoming. Giving that option would invariably force the

states to realise that their responsibility towards industry

is paramount and that it cannot be made secondary to

petty political issues. Starting a business and executing it

properly is not a matter of joke and it takes a considerable

amount of risk taking and human endeavour. Sudden

pullout or lockout results in the inability of the company

to pay back to the creditors which results in bad debt for

the banks and thus, something like this happening in a

large scale would result in major economic crisis for thenation. It is high time India stops taking its industry for

granted and ensure its safety for the economic security of

the nation.

SPECIAL FEATURE


20/26

Insights into Indian TerrorismIn an effort to counter terrorism in major cities, SWI did an in-depth analysis of

the trends of terror attacks that have happened in Mumbai and New Delhi over

the last two decades. Following are the insights gleaned from it.

Almost all attacks have been made against stationary

targets a building or a geographic location, rather

than a person or a group of people. It is reasonable toassume that this trend will continue.

Attacks on Mumbai have been traditionally better-

planned and more deadly. Accordingly, the counter-

terrorism efforts should give the city higher priority over

Delhi. Additionally, effort should be made by Mumbai

city security forces to emulate Delhis counter-terror

efforts.

Most favoured target for the terrorist has been public

places with little or no security followed by transportationinfrastructure, namely buses and railways, and

Government Buildings. Political organizations and

religious institutions remain relatively unaffected.

Deterrence works. There has been only one instance of

terrorists attempting to breach a security perimeter. In

almost all the cases, visible security measures, even if

merely pro forma, are enough deter would-be terrorists.

The attackers seem to be more concerned about where

to attack than how much causality. In other words,the fact that explosion does happen seems to be

overriding concern for terrorists rather than maximizing

the damage. This is an important lesson to be drawn,

especially if urban design can in some way ensure that

minimize the possibility of damage in terrorists most

favoured targets. In doing so, it can be condent that

the terrorists will not change their target preferences

only because of diminishing returns. For example, if

by architectural design, it can be ensured that open-air

crowded markets have lower density of trafc, thereby

minimizing the effect of any blast, then it is unlikely

that the terrorists will switch targets merely over this

consideration.

There have been some attacks on targets that may have

carried symbolic value. However, these attacks were

not more effective than attacks carried out elsewhere.

However, they were usually better-planned. This may

be explained by the fact that many buildings with

symbolic value or international recognition are usually

better protected, which helps in deterring the attacks

as well as minimizing the damage done by them.

Most attacks on Government buildings have been

essentially ineffective by design i.e. terrorists did not

attempt to maximize the damage. Instead, purpose of

such attacks seems to be sending political message.

By far, the greatest threat is to communal spaces such

as open-air markets, where overwhelming number of

attacks have been carried out. Minimal security, ease

of access and the general perception that a blast in a

crowded market would create panic, explain this trend.

Over the years, the number of attacks has decreased;

however, their quality has increased. In fact, attacks

carried out since 2007 have been considerably more

effective in raking up causalities than any attack before,

other than the 1993 Mumbai Blasts. This indicates a

growing sophistication in the know-how of the terror

groups.


SPECIAL FEATURE


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BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY

The Indian Homeland Security and Defence MarketsHeading for Convergence

-Pathikrit Payne

In the post 26/11 era, the world suddenly realised the

importance of giving equal attention to the concept of

internal security or Homeland Security by taking much of

the cue from USA. Several of the major defence contractors

who have hitherto only focussed on products meant for

securing a nation from an external enemy in a conventional

warfare or invasion type scenario, have started new divisions

to primarily cater to the homeland security requirements

of nations. It is a foregone conclusion that with increased

integration of the national economies in the international

arena and with increased commercial and human

interactions in the real and the virtual world, the chances

of the responsible and developed (including developing)

countries going for conventional warfare with each other

is gradually coming down. That does not though mean that

their defence budgets would automatically reect that.

Defence spending would continue at the pace at which it

has been going on in the past but more than quantity it is

quality of weapons systems that would get enhanced and is

evident in case of most countries. However the decrease in

the possibilities of conventional warfare does not necessarilymake the world a safer place to live in, as it has gone hand

in hand with an exponential increase in the possibilities of

asymmetric warfare with non-state actors who in certain

cases act based on an ideology and have pan-continental

presence while in certain other cases have been found

to be working with tacit blessings of some governments.

Whatever the case might be the criticality of protecting

every infrastructural facility, public place and institutes of

national importance have increased phenomenally. With

increasing sophistication and complexities of the way the

terror and extremist organisations have been operating, the

law enforcement agencies and the federal police forces,

who most of the time are entrusted with containing and

deactivating them, have been facing the ardent challenge

of increasing their own weapons and other combat

systems. So much so that in certain spheres there is not

much difference between the kind of weapon systems

and associated combat gears that the conventional armed

forces personnel would use and what the law enforcement

agencies need to use in the changing circumstances.

THE CONVERGENCE OF HOMELAND SECURITYAND DEFENCE MARKETS

Thus while as of yet it has been witnessed that the homeland

security market has been dened as a separate market from

that of the market for defence products, one can easily nd

considerable amount of convergence between the two. This

convergence or common ground is only going to increase

with time. This article would attempt to make a select list

of areas where one can witness considerable convergence

in the Indian market.

ASSAULT RIFLES

Gone are the days when top notch assault ries were

meant only for the armed forces and the police being given

the vintage Lee Eneld .303 rie and a wooden stick (call

lathi) for general policing. With most states in India facing

the risk of either Maoists terrorism or Islamic terrorism orboth at the same time and with some of Indias states also

facing separatist elements, almost all the states have been

attempting a major makeover of their state level police

machineries. Among the frontline police organisations

which have started this initiative are invariably the Central

Armed Police Forces, which, in addition to border guarding,

are tasked with the mandate to assist the state level forces

as a force multiplier. In the last few years the Union Home

Ministry bought,

a. 69,965 AK-47 Ries

b. 16,430 Assault Ries


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c. 2537 X-95 Assault Ries from Israel

d. 34,377 Mx4 Storm Carbine from Beretta for BSF

e. 1576 MP-5 Submachine Guns

f. 2608 Glock Pistols.

g. For the year 2012, Delhi Police has plans to procure

another 1368 MP5 Sub Machine Guns and 3440

Glock pistols.

h. In 2010 itself, Delhi Police had bought around

10,000 9mm pistols and 3450 Glock Pistols.

In the next few years state level police forces in India

would try to augment their strength of armed police which

is at present having a decit of around 4 lakh personnel.

Further, Central Armed Police Forces like ITBP, SSB and

CISF are also increasing the strength of their personnel.

Even though majority of them are likely to be equipped

with the indigenously made INSAS 5.56 mm and SLR 7.62

mm ries, considerable opportunities do still exist for the

procurement of other varieties of assault ries and pistols.

Further, under the Modernisation of Police Force Scheme,

during the period 2009-2011, state level police forces

were provided with 107786 weapon systems, primarily

assault ries and pistols.

Moreover reports state that an estimated order for nearly

30,000 MP5 have been given by the Union Home Ministry

after clubbing together the requirements of National

Security Guard along with that of the various state level law

enforcement agencies and Special Forces. A case in point

is the Tavor Assault Rie which is now being used by the

Special Forces of Indian Army, Navys Marcos as well as

the CRPF, vindicating the level of convergence between the

need of armed forces and police forces.

BULLET PROOF VESTS AND HELMETSThe demand for bullet proof

jackets has been increasing

not just in case of the armed

forces but also for the

central armed police forces

as well as the state level

Special Forces. In the last

three years the Union Home

Ministry purchased 89,641

light weight bullet proofjackets and more are being

purchased for the state level

police forces involved in anti

Maoist operations. In 2009,

the Comptroller and Auditor

General stated that there

is a shortfall of about 1.86lakh bullet proof jackets in

Army . There is an urgent

need to bridge this decit.

The qualitative requirements

would almost be perhaps the

same as that required for the

Central Police Forces, with

the prime requirement being that of being lightweight and

also being able to withstand a 7.62 mm bullet. Further there

are special requirements for the Special Forces of India

which includes the NSG, Garud, Marcos, Sagar Prahari Bal,Paras and Ghatak of Indian Army, Cobra of CRPF as well as

the SPG. Under the Modernisation of Police Force Scheme,

state police forces have also been provided with 26465

bullet proof jackets. Thus for companies dealing with bullet

proof vests and helmets, the homeland security market and

the defence market are not different but one grand market

with different customers.

HAND-HELD THERMAL IMAGERS, PASSIVENIGHT VISION BINOCULARS AND WEAPONSSIGHTS

During the period from 2008-2011, the Union Home

Ministry procured the following for the Central Armed

Police Forces:

1164 hand Held Thermal Imagers

8109 PNS Weapons Sights

9792 Passive Night Vision Binoculars.

As the ght against the Maoists intensies, and the

BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY


23/26


security forces penetrate deep into the Maoist bastions

in treacherous forests of Dantewada and elsewhere, there

would be huge requirements for such hand held thermal

Imagers, Weapons Sights and Night Vision Binoculars.

Similar requirements and perhaps in much larger scalealso exist for Indias armed forces to equip the Special

Forces and the infantry soldiers. Indian Armys ambitious

F-INSAS programme (Future Infantry Soldier As A System)

endeavour to equip its personnel with similar equipments.

In the recent past CRPF also came out with tenders for

4000 specialised Human Detecting Night Vision Devices

and 3000 night vision binoculars.

MINE PROTECTION VEHICLES

Over the years, it has been seen that the Maoists have

relied heavily on IED (Improvised Explosive Devices) in

their ght against the Security Forces since the Maoists

have limitations with respect to repower and can never

match the security forces in face to face gun battles.

However it is mostly during the troop movements in trucks

on unpaved jungle roads that they are most vulnerable

to attacks through IEDs detonated by Maoists. Keeping

this in mind several modications have been made in the

Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) of the Security Forces

and wherever possible, efforts are being made to avoid the

use of vehicles to reduce the chances of falling in the trap

of IEDs. Meanwhile efforts have also been made to procure

a large number of Mine Protection Vehicles which can give

at least a certain amount of protection to the troops from

any kind of IED detonation. During the period 2008-2011,

the Union Home Ministry procured 105 Mine Protection

Vehicles for the Central Armed Police Forces, especially

CRPF which is at the forefront of ght against Maoists.

Further, states like Jharkhand and Maharashtra which areat the forefront of ghting Maoists have also been procuring

large number of Mine Protection Vehicles. While TATA

Motors recently supplied ve Mine Protection Vehicles to

Jharkhand Police, it has an order for 32 Mine Protection

Vehicles from Maharashtra State Police. As per media

reports Jharkhand Police has already procured more than

hundred Mine Protection Vehicles.

Meanwhile the Indian Army too have considerable

requirements for Mine Protection Vehicles, Mine Sweeping

Vehicles and Mine Laying systems. The Indian Army has

in its arsenal a substantial number of Mine Protection

Vehicles. As per a press release by Mahindra & Mahindra,

BAE Systems have supplied more than 165 Casspir Mine

Protection Vehicles to Indian Army. Incidentally Mahindra

& Mahindra now has a joint venture with BAE Systems

namely Defence Land Systems India (DLSI) which has

already started delivering Mine Protection Vehicles tostates like Jharkahnd and DLSI has also been shortlisted

for Indias ambitious Future Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV)

Programme.

HANDHELD GPS DEVICES AND OTHERCOMMUNICATION SYSTEMS

One of the key aspects of the Central Governments

Modernisation of P

Documents

SWI Security Report Vol 3 Issue 11