Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Tahrir Data Project
Preliminary Descriptive Analysis
Discursive Context
• Pessimism and Utopianismsince Iran and Moldova
• 2011>Deen Freelon’s 4-part taxonomy
• The Hype and the Blowback
• Still an anecdotal debate
• Still: «Was it a Facebook Revolution?»
The Tahrir Data Sets
• TDS-a: protester media-use– 1200 interviews between Feb 24 & March 1– In-depth, “superficial” questionnaire
• TDS-b: coordinator media-use– 35 individuals, semi-structured, purposive sample
• TDS-c: Twitter and transnational networks– #jan25 tweets between Jan 21 & Feb 11– 675,715 tweets, 106,000 users, 27 languages
TDS-a: Protester Sample
• “Hidden population”• Predominantly:
–young, –well educated, –non-politcally active, –wired–men
Frequencies:media use
Blogs (123) Twitter (138) Radio (229) Email (285) Facebook (447)
SMS (492) Print (612) Phone (869) TV (978) Live Comm'n (989)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Used in Protests
How much did protesters use media?
How much did protesters use media?
Blogs (123) Twitter (138) Radio (229) Email (285) Facebook (447)
SMS (492) Print (612) Phone (869) TV (978) Live Comm'n (989)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Use in General Used in Protests
Email (285)
SMS (492)
Phone (869)
Radio (229)
Print (612)
Blogs (123)
Twitter (138)
TV (978)
Facebook (447)
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
57.5%
16.1%
10.8%
8.1%
5.4%
3.8%
3.0%
1.7%
0.7%
Drops in Medias' General Use to Protest Use
Med
ia (#
med
ia u
sers
)
Email (285)
SMS (492)
Phone (869)
Radio (229)
Print (612)
Blogs (123)
Twitter (138)
TV (978)
Facebook (447)
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
57.5%
16.1%
10.8%
8.1%
5.4%
3.8%
3.0%
1.7%
0.7%
Med
ia (#
med
ia u
sers
)
Email (285)
SMS (492)
Phone (869)
Radio (229)
Print (612)
Blogs (123)
Twitter (138)
TV (978)
Facebook (447)
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
57.5%
16.1%
10.8%
8.1%
5.4%
3.8%
3.0%
1.7%
0.7%
Med
ia (#
med
ia u
sers
)
Real Time Media?Synchronous Media?Social Media?Suitability for Protest Activity
Logical Regressions:Out on first day &
first time protesting
Protested on Day 1Exp (b) P
Age 1.009 0.27Male 1.295 0.11Education 0.991 0.87Net at Home 1.297 0.21Net on Phone 1.091 0.54Uses Text Gen 1.092 0.56Uses FB Gen 1.443* 0.01Uses TW Gen 1.429* 0.05Uses Blogs Gen 1.197 0.4Uses Email Gen 0.818 0.31Uses Phone Gen 1.22 0.46Uses TV Gen 0.483** 0.01Uses Radio 1.089 0.56Uses Print 1.366* 0.04_cons 0.341* 0.04N 1029ll -654.933* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001
Not 1st ProtestExp (b) P
Age 1.034*** 0Male 1.034 0.84Education 1.03 0.61Net at Home 1.589* 0.03Net on Phone 1.118 0.44Uses Text Gen 1.227 0.19Uses FB Gen 1.349* 0.04Uses TW Gen 1.467* 0.04Uses Blogs Gen 0.961 0.86Uses Email Gen 1.11 0.61Uses Phone Gen 0.673 0.13Uses TV Gen 0.763 0.34Uses Radio 0.723* 0.04Uses Print 1.781*** 0_cons 0.099*** 0N 1029ll -631.21* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001
Frequencies:Media rankings and protester behaviour
Phone Face To Face Facebook Satellite TV Email Twitter Documentation SMS Radio Print0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%Im
port
ant
Impo
rtan
t
Impo
rtan
t
Impo
rtan
t
Impo
rtan
t
Impo
rtan
t
Impo
rtan
t
Impo
rtan
t
Impo
rtan
t
Impo
rtan
t
Info
rmati
ve
Info
rmati
ve
Info
rmati
ve
Info
rmati
ve
Info
rmati
ve
Info
rmati
ve
Info
rmati
ve
Info
rmati
ve
Info
rmati
ve
Info
rmati
ve
Used
Used
Used
Used
Used
Used
Used
Used
Used
Used
Moti
vatin
g
Moti
vatin
g
Moti
vatin
g
Moti
vatin
g
Moti
vatin
g
Moti
vatin
g
Moti
vatin
g
Moti
vatin
g
Moti
vatin
g
Moti
vatin
g
Important
Informative
Used
Motivating
Media Arranged by Overall Scores
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al P
ossi
ble
Scor
e
Media Rankings (1)
Phone (869)
Face
To Fa
ce (989)
Faceb
ook (447)
Satel
lite TV
(978)
(285)
(138)
Documen
tation (n
o defined
users)
SMS (
492)
Radio (2
29)
Print (6
12)0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
75%
53%
65%
25%
52%
42%
10%
17%
5%
81%
46%
63%
21%
55%
42%
9%16%
3%
36%
51%
84%
43%
29%33%
7%
37%
8%
58%
43%
81%
20%24%
76%
6%
17%
4%
ImportantInformativeUsedMotivating
Media (# media users)
% o
f top
sco
re p
ossi
ble
from
med
ia u
sers
Media Rankings (2)
Phone (869)
Face
To Fa
ce (989)
Faceb
ook (447)
Satel
lite TV
(978)
(285)
(138)
Documen
tation (n
o defined
users)
SMS (
492)
Radio (2
29)
Print (6
12)0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
75%
53%
65%
25%
52%
42%
10%
17%
5%
81%
46%
63%
21%
55%
42%
9%16%
3%
36%
51%
84%
43%
29%
33%
7%
37%
8%
58%
43%
81%
20%
24%
76%
6%
17%
4%
ImportantInformativeUsedMotivating
% o
f top
sco
re p
ossi
ble
from
med
ia u
sers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
52%
46%
32%
26%
11%
6%5% 4% 5%
3%
Media Ranking Aggregatessignificance by full sample of respondents
Media (# of media users)
% o
f pos
sibl
e sc
ore
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
52%
46%
32%
26%
11%
6%5% 4% 5%
3%
62%
48%
73%
27%
40%
48%
8%
22%
5%
significance by full sample of respondents
significance by media user respondents
% o
f pos
sibl
e sc
ore
Key Protest Metrics
Reliability
• Blogs (>tw, live, fb, em)
• Exaggeration for Blogs and TW in content types and motivations
Documentation• Sources:
TV, Live, Phone, FB, Print • Users
FB, live TW, phone, sat
.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Media (total responses/total media users)
Relay
• Facebook and TV strongest showers
• Both as info types and activities
• The strange showing of live communication
Implications of TDS-a
Digital distinguish themselves through:• Degreee and character of media use • Behavior of media users• User relationships to media
TDS-c: Tweeters
1a. 1b.
Power law distributions for tweeters and retweeters.
TDS-c: Transnational communication flows
TDS b: Coordinator Strategies
• Traditional media & Hybridity• Strong ties and weak ties• Transnational Information Flows as
–Security–Motivation–Principle
Preliminary Conclusions
• Digital media are distinct• Digital media vs hybrid media• Context and contingency• We need more sophisticated models
– Utopianism and pessimism do not suffice– Information ecologies– Functional network mappings
A Facebook Revolution?
Silly Question
Moving Ahead
• Implications for further research– Grounded research– Local research– Open research – Comparative research
• Objects for further research– Mapping – Relay – Duplication and comparison
http://tahrirdata.info
