Upload
others
View
4
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Tbilisis iv. javaxiSvilis saxelobis saxelmwifo universiteti
medea qoCoraZe
aSS-is sagareo politikis analizi, meTodologia da funqcionireba
(saqarTvelos damoukidebel saxelmwifod CamoyalibebasTan mimarTebaSi)
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi filosofiis doqtoris akademiuri xarisxis mosapoveblad warmodgenili
disertacia
samecniero xelmZRvaneli prof. zurab daviTaSvili
Tbilisi
2008
avtoris stili daculia
T b i l i s i
2
sarCevi
Sesavali 4
Tavi I 13
sagareo politikis kvlevis Teoriuli wanamZRvrebi 13 1.1 sagareo politikis kvlevis mimarTeba saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa da Sidapolitologiur kvlevasTan 13 1.2 sagareo politikis kvlevis meTodologiebis mimoxilva 14 1.3 sagareo politikis sistemuri analizi 21
1.3.1 sagareo politikis sistemis konceptualuri da operaciuli gansazRvreba 21 1.3.2 sagareo politikis sistemis parametrebi da cvladebi 22 1.3.3 sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis garemo 27
1.3.3.1 saerTaSoriso sistema 30 1.3.3.2 Sidapolitikuri sistema 37 1.3.3.3 obieqti saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema da sagreo politikis
orientacia 40 1.3.4 garemos koncentruli modeli 40
Tavi II 42
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis meqanizmi 42 2.1 preambula 42 2.2 saerTaSoriso garemo 42
2.2.1. komunizmis damarcxeba 43 2.2.2 arastabilurobis axali kerebi 46 2.2.3 axali safrTxeebis ganviTareba 48 2.2..4 axali ekonomikuri centrebis Seqmna 51 2.2.5 saxelmwifoebs Soris mzardi urTierT-damokidebuleba 53
2.3 aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemo 58 2.3.1 socialur-ekonomikuri struqtura. 58
2.3.1.1 ekonomikuri zrdis tempi 59 2.3.1.2 biujetis Sesruleba 60 2.3.1.3 savaWro balansi 62
2.3.2 aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis reagireba socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis parametrebze. 63 2.3.3 korelacia saerTaSoriso garemos parametrebs da Sidapolitikuri garemos socialur-ekonomikur parametrebs Soris 68 2.3.4 ideologiuri struqtura 70
2.3.4.1 politikuri partiebi 70 2.3.4.2 sazogadoebrivi azri da masmedia 78 2.3.4.3 interesTa jgufebi, arasamTavrobo organizaciebi da analitikuri centrebi 83 2.3.4.4 politikuri istebliSmenti 86
3
Tavi III 97
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionireba saqarTvelos damoukidebel saxelmwifod CamoyalibebasTan mimarTebaSi 97
3.1 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi 98 3.1.1 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis urTierTqmedebebi saerTaSoriso garemos Sreze 98
3.1.1.1 baltiispireTis respublikebis damoukidebloba 99 3.1.1.2 sakavSiro xelSekruleba 101 3.1.1.3 putCi 102
3.1.2 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis urTierTqmedebebi Sidapolitikur Sreze 104
3.1.2.1 masmedia da sazogadoebrivi azri 104 3.1.2.2 specialuri interesebi 107 3.1.2.3 politikuri istebliSmneti 113 3.1.2.4 politikuri partiebi 127
3.1.3 aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis Sedegebi `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis cvladTan~ mimarTebaSi 132
3.2 prognozis funqcia 136
daskvna 139
gamoyenebuli literatura 152
danarTebi 170
4
Sesavali
problemis aqtualoba. saxelmwifoTa sagareo politikis Seswavlis
Tanamedrove etapze Camoyalibda aucilebloba imisa, rom empiriuli kvlevis
Sedegebi axleburad aisaxos saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa TeoriaSi.
ZiriTadi pretenzia, romelic gamoiTqmis politikis calkeuli
dargebis, maT Soris sagareo politikis, kvlevis mimarT mdgomareobs imaSi,
rom am tipis gamokvlevebi, Tavisi konkretuli fokusirebis gamo, viwroa da
Tavs aridebs zogadpolitologiuri Teoriebis SemuSavebas. aRiniSneba, rom
miuxedavad imisa, rom am tipis kvlevebi, erTi mxriv, sasargebloa Sesabamisi
dargis praqtikosi politikosebisaTvis da, meore mexriv, uzrunvelyofs
saWiro informacias SesaZlo induqciuri Teoriebis asagebad, TviT
politikuri mecnierebis Teoriis TvalsazrisiT, maT naklebi mniSvneloba
eniWebaT (Sabatier, 1991, p. 265-266). avRniSnavT, rom amgvari braldebebi
ZiriTadad momdinareobs politologebisagan, romlebic politikuri
mecnierebis kvlevis ZiriTad sagnad Sidapolitikur procesebs miiCneven.
Tumca, sagareo politikis SemTxvevaSic, sadac ZiriTadad miCneulia, rom
sagareo politikis Seswavlis sagans warmoadgens saxelmwifoTa
urTierTqmedeba, romelic mimarTulia maTi erovnuli interesebis
maqsimalur dakmayofilebaze (iqneba es absoluturi Tu SedarebiTi
xarisxiT, rogorc amas ganasxvaveben realizmis Tu liberaluri skolis
mimdevrebi) da naklebad aris orientirebuli Sidapolitikur procesebze,
Tanamedrove mkvlevarebi (orive skolis farglebSi) miuTiTeben
saxelmwifoTaSorisi urTierTobebis axal aqtorebze (politikur Zalebze,
socialur-ekonomikur jgufebze, arasamTavrobo organizaciebze, calkeul
individebze da sxva), romlebic sul ufro mzard zegavlenas axdenen
sagareo politikis ganxorcielebaze. Sesabamisad, sagareo politikis
Tanamedrove kvleva unda eswrafvodes zogadpolitologiuri principebis
SemuSavebas, romlebic safuZvlad daedeba amgvar mravalfaqtorian analizs.
5
uSualod aSS-is sagareo politikis Tanamedrove kvlevaTa moculoba,
romelic ganxilulia Cvens mier, SeiZleba daiyos Semdeg kategoriebad:
-- aSS-is sagareo politika calke aRebuli erTi saxelmwifos an
regionis mimarT, romelic efuZneba aSS-is konkretul strategiul
interesebs (mag. : ukrainis birTvuli iaraRis gaunebelyofa; TanamSromloba
ruseTTan masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis gauvrceleblobis sakiTxebze;
CineTis bazaris aTviseba amerikuli eqsportisaTvis, partnioroba
integrirebul evropasTan da sxva (Atwood, 1990; Starostenko, 1998; Chen, 1998; Beck,
1998, Granieri, 2006; Huliaras, 2006; Polat, 2007; Daly, 2008) ;
-- aSS-is sagareo politikis ganxorcielebis saSualebebi (sagareo
daxmareba, `iZulebiTi diplomatia,~ arasamTavrobo organizaciebi,
ekonomikuri sanqciebi da sxva) (Castillo, 1998; Easley, 1999; Mills, 1999; Javrik, 2007,
Cumings, 2007; Adelman, 2007; Rarick, 2008);
-- saerTaSoriso sistema, aSS-is erovnuli interesebi da erovnuli
ideologia, saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa Teoriebi (politikuri realizmis
amerikuli skola), rogorc aSS-is sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli
faqtorebi (Schonberg, 1998; Dai, 1999, Lahneman, 1999; Gentry, 1999, kakaCia, 2002);
-- gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesis calkeuli aspeqtebi (Ripley, 1990;
Frelich, 1998);
-- aSS-is urTierToba saerTaSoriso organizaciebTan da monawileoba
samSvidobo da humanitarul operaciebSi (Elston, 1998; Wright, 1998; Davis, 1998;
Ronayne, 1999; Hamilton, 1999; Kupchan, 2004; Simon, 2004; Topic, 2004);
-- aSS-is saagreo politikis axali gamowvevebi (fundamentalisturi
islami, terorizmi da sxva) (Logan, 1998; K. Lieber and R. Lieber, 2002, Hassig R. C. and
Kongdan Oh, 2005; Sokolski H., 2005; Oxford Analytica, 2008).
Tanamedrove periodis aRniSnuli naSromebi ikvleven aSS-is sagareo
politikis sxvadasxva aspeqts, Tumca ar eswrafvian zogadpolitologiuri
Teoriuli principebis SemuSavebas, rac erTi mxriv, calmxrivad
warmoadgens miRweul Sedegebs, xolo meore mxriv, arTulebs maT
dakavSirebas erTian Tanmimdevrul konceptualur sistemaSi. zogierTi
6
avtori miuTiTebs saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa TeoriaSi sagareo
politikis empiriul kvlevaTa Sedegebis axleburi asaxvis aucileblobaze
(Beck, 1998), magram amgvari miTiTebebi iSviaTia da kvlav ar efuZneba erTian
konceptualur CarCos. 1
amave dros, amgvari konceptualuri CarCos SemuSaveba mniSvnelovania
ara mxolod konkretuli saxelmwifos, am SemTxvevaSi aSS-is, realuri
sagareo politikis analizis TvalsazrisiT, aramed misi Semdgomi
prognozirebis da Sesabamisi rekomendaciebis gawevis TvalsazrisiTac im
saxelmwifoTaTvis, romelTa mimarTac xorcieldeba mocemuli saxelmwifos,
am SemTxvevaSi aSS-is sagareo politika.
warmodgenili naSromis aqtualoba mdgomareobs sagareo politikis
kvlevis zogadi meTodologiis SemuSavebis mcdelobaSi, romelic xels
Seuwyobs, erTi mxriv, calkeul saxelmwifoTa (Cvens SemTxvevaSi aSS-is)
sagareo politikis analizs, xolo, meore mxriv, politikuri mecnierebis
Teoriis ganviTarebas. SemuSavebuli meTodologiis ZiriTadi principebis
gamoyeneba, amave dros, sasargeblo unda iyos gansxvavebul
institucionalur pirobebSi mimdinare politikuri qcevis analizisTvisac.
kvlevis obieqti da sagani. Cveni kvlevis obieqts warmoadgens sagareo
politikis analizis zogadi meTodologia, romelic xels Seuwyobs, erTi
mxriv, calkeul saxelmwifoTa sagareo politikis kvlevas, xolo meore
mxriv, -- politikuri mecnierebis zogadi Teoriis ganviTarebas.
Cveni kvlevis sagans, rogorc zemoT aRniSnuli kvlevis obieqtis
calkeuli aspeqtebis gamovlinebas realur sazogadoebriv cxovrebaSi,
warmoadgens konkretuli saxelmwifos, kerZod aSS-is, sagareo politikis
konkretuli droiTi da sivrciTi realizaciis analizis meTodologia.
kvlevis mizani da amocanebi. sadisertacio naSromis mizania:
sagareo politikis kvlevis SemuSavebuli zogadi meTodologiis
safuZvelze, vuCvenoT aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionireba,
1 magaliTad, erT-erTi wamyvani evropuli kvleviTi centri -- `sagareo politikis centri ~-- romlis gacxadebuli mizanicaa sagareo politikis kvlevis aratradiciuli midgomebis
7
rac saSualebas mogvcems gavaanalizoT aSS-is sagareo politika
saqarTvelos suverenitetis damkvidrebis rogorc erT konkretul
sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi, aseve misi samomavlo ganviTarebis SesaZlo
tendenciebTan mimarTebaSi.
aRniSnuli mizani gansazRvravs kvlevis Semdeg amocanebs:
1. CamovayaliboT sagareo politikis kvlevis zogadmeTodologiuri
modeli.
mocemuli amocana, Tavis mxriv, moicavs Semdeg safexurebs:
-- ganvsazRvroT sagareo politikis kvlevis mimarTeba, erTi mxriv,
saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevasTan da, meore mxriv, saxelmwifos
Sidapolitikuri procesebis kvlevasTan da, Sesabamisad, gavaanalizoT
sagareo politikis kvlevis arsebuli meTodologiebi;
-- ganvsazRvroT sagareo politikis sistemis konceptualuri da
operaciuli mxareebi;
-- ganvsazRvroT sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis garemos
konceptualuri da operaciuli mxareebi;
-- CamovayaliboT sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis optimaluri
modeli.
2. SemuSavebuli meTodologiis safuZvelze, vuCvenoT aSS-is sagareo
politikis sistemis funqcionireba saqarTvelos mimarT (saqarTvelos
suverenitetis uzrunvelyofis erT-erT yvelaze kritikul sakiTxTan --
damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi).
3. warmovaCinoT SemuSavebuli meTodologiis SemecnebiTi, prognozis
da sarekomendacio funqciebi Sesabamisi aqtorebisTvis.
Mmecnieruli wvlili da praqtikuli Rirebuleba. dasaxuli amocanebis
warmatebiT gadaWra saSualebas mogvcems SevitanoT garkveuli wvlili
politikuri mecnierebis ganviTarebaSi sami aspeqtiT, romelic moicavs: 1.
sagareo politikis kvlevis Teoriul sakiTxebs; 2. saerTaSoriso
SemuSaveba, Tavis momxmarebels ar sTavazobs analizis raime erTian meTodologiur koncepcias.
8
urTierTobaTa disciplinis Teoriul sakiTxebs; da 3. saerTaSoriso
urTierTobaTa disciplinis Tanamedrove empiriul sakiTxebs.
kvlevis praqtikuli Rirebulebis gansazRvrisas, pirvel rigSi
amovalT arsebuli Tvalsazrisidan, romlis Tanaxmad saerTaSoriso
urTierTobaTa Teoria, xsnis ra saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa sferos, amave
dros TviTonac warmoadgens saerTaSoriso praqtikis Semadgenel nawils,
radganac xSirad imisda mixedviT, Tu ra Teoriuli sqemebisa da Sefasebebis
meSveobiT ganixileba saerTaSoriso viTareba, ganisazRvreba is
racionaluri sqemebi da Sefasebebi, romlebic safuZvlad edeba
gadawyvetilebis miRebisa da Sesabamis aqtorebs Soris urTierTqmedebis
process.
wminda pragmatuli TvalsazrisiT, sistemur principebze agebuli
sagareo politikis kvlevis zogadmeTodologiuri modeli itvirTavs sam
ZiriTad funqcias -- SemecnebiT, prognozis da rekomendaciis gawevis
funqcas, -- romelic uzrunvelyos Sesabamisi analizis warmoebas rogorc
sagareo politikis ganmaxorcielebeli `subieqti~ saxelmwifos (Cvens
SemTxvevaSi aSS-is), aseve `obieqti~ saxelmwifos (Cvens SemTxvevaSi
saqarTvelos) mimarT.
kerZod, SemecnebiTi funqciis ganxorcieleba uzrunvelyofs: 1.
obieqturi da subieqturi saxis struqturirebul informacias `subieqti~
saxelmwifos sagareo politikis garemos mravalmxrivi realobis Taobaze;
2. obieqturi da subieqturi saxis struqturirebul informacias `obieqti~
saxelmwifos Sida da sagareo politikis im aspeqtebze, romlebic
mniSvnelovania `subieqti~ saxelmwifos mokle da grZelvadian
interesebTan mimarTebaSi.
prognozis Ffunqciis ganxorcieleba uzrunveyofs: 1. `obieqti~
saxelmwifos garkveuli sakiTxebis `subieqti~ saxelmwifos sagareo
politikis sakiTxebad Camoyalibebis procesis analizs; 2. aRniSnul
sakiTxebze `subiqti~ saxelmwifos politikis ganviTarebis SesaZlo
mimarTulebebis analizs.
9
rekomendaciis gawevis funqcia waadgeba `obieqti~ saxelmwifos
politikur liderebsa da analitikosebs, vinaidan saSualebas mogvcems
gaweuli iyos: 1. moklevadiani taqtikuri xasiaTis rekomendaciebi,
ramdendac gaanalizebuli realobis fragmenti konkretul droiT da
sivrciT CarCoebSia moqceuli; 2. grZelvadiani strategiuli xasiaTis
rekomendaciebi, ramdenadac gaanalizebuli realobis fragmenti, Sedarebis,
analogiis Tu eqstrapolaciis gziT, SeiZleba '`daidos~ droisa da sivrcis
ufro vrcel monakveTze.
gamoyenebuli wyaroebi da literatura.
Cveni kvlevis Teoriuli miznebisaTvis Seswavlili iyo sagreo
politikis analizis arsebuli meTodologiebi, romelTa Sorisac,
analizis amosavali Tvalsizrisis safuZvelze, sami ZiriTadi mimarTuleba
gamoikveTa: saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa, Sidapolitologiuri da
sistemuri analizis mimarTulebebi.
aSS-is sagareo politikisadmi miZRvnil gamokvlevebSi aseve
gamoikveTa ZiriTadi tendencia, romelic analizis amosaval Tvalsazrisad
swored `saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa~ Tvalsazriss miiCenvs da realurad
istoriul-aRwerilobiT meTods iyenebs. am naSromebs Soris aRsaniSnavia h.
kisinjeris, s. hukis da j. spanieris, s. ambrouzis da d. brinklis, j. Ceisis,
T. patersonis da d. merilis da sxvaTa gamokvlevebi.
`politologiuri~ mimarTulebis analizisas, romelic
gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesze aris fokusirebuli da mxedvelobaSi
iRebs, rogorc kognitur, aseve fsiqologiur faqtorebs, Cven daveyrdeniT
r. snaideris, h. brukis, b. sapinis, j. rozenaus, j. marCis da j. olsenis da
sxvaTa publikaciebs.
literaturis analizis safuZvelze SevecadeT warmogveCina sagareo
politikis kvlevis sistemuri midgomis - rogorc sagareo politikis
ganmsazRvrel faqtorTa mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSirebis dadgenis saSualebis
upiratesoba. am mimarTulebis farglebSi, Cven didwilad daveyrdeniT r.
hoferbertis, j. kingdomis, p. sabatieris da sxvaTa kvlevebs. sistemuri
midgomis farglebSi, SevecadeT ra SegvemuSavebina sagareo politikis
10
sistemis garemos struqtura da analizis erTeulebi, Cvens mier
gaanalizebuli iyo harold da margaret sprautebis, k. ferandsis, d.
istonis da sxvaTa naSromebi.
uSualod empiriuli kvlevis miznebisaTvis gamoyenebuli iyo Semdegi
wyaroebi: -- amerikuli presa (New York Times Current Events Edition, USA Today,
Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, da sxva); -- aSS-is sagareo politikaze
pasuxismgebeli saxelmwifo istebliSmentis mier gamoqveynebuli
dokumentebi da gancxadebebi (Congressional Quarterly, U.S. Department of State Dispatch,
Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State da sxva); -- aSS kongresis mosmenebis
gamoqveynebuli teqstebi; -- aSS kongresis `evropaSi usafrTxoebisa da
TanamSromlobis komisiis” moxsenebebi; -- amerikeli da qarTveli avtorebis
(v. odomi da r. duJariki, d. darCiaSvili da T. pataraia, m. macaberiZe da
sxvebi) analitikuri gamokvlevebi saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis sakiTxebze.
naSromSi aseve gamoyenebuli iyo piradi interviuebi amerikuli analitikuri
centrebis warmomadgenlebTan amerika-saqarTvelos urTierTobebis
sakiTxebze.
kvlevis meTodebi. Cveni kvlevis zemoaRniSnuli miznis da amocanebis
gadaWris mizniT Cvens mier gamoyenebuli iyo politologiuri kvlevis
meTodebi, romelTa Sesabamisma adaptaciam aseve SesaZlebeli gaxada maTi
gamoyeneba sagareo politikis kvlevisaTvis. kerZod, gamoyenebuli iyo
Semdegi meTodebi:
1. sistemuri meTodi, romelmac struqturul-funqcionalur midgomaze
dayrdnobiT, saSualeba mogvca gangvexorcielebina sagareo politikis
sistemuri warmodgena im mravalganzomilebiani procesebis
gaTvaliswinebiT, romlebic monawileoben mis formirebaSi. kerZod,
aRniSnul meTodze dayrdnobiT gavaanalizeT aSS-is sagareo politikis
sistemis struqturebi, maTi komponentebi, aRniSnuli komponentebis
Sesabamisi parametrebi da sabolood, am parametrebis zemoqmedeba sagareo
politikis sistemis funqcionirebis reJimebze.
11
2. SedarebiTi meTodi, romelmac analizis sagnis variaciebis
dadgenis gziT saSualeba mogvca gamogvevlina Cveni kvlevis miznebisaTvis
saintereso is specifiuri niSanTvisebebi, romlebic sxagvarad SeiZleba
dafaruli yofiliyo pirdapiri kvlevisas. kerZod, CavatareT Sepirispireba
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebisa saqarTvelos mimarT
mis funqcinirebasTan samxreT kavkasiis danarCeni ori respublikis -
somxeTis da azerbaijanis mimarT, aRniSnul saxelmwifoTa mier
damoukideblobis mopovebis sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi. aRniSnuli
SepirispirebiTi analizis Catarebisas, amovediT daSvebidan, rom samxreT
kavkasia, Tavisi socialur- politikuri gamocdilebiT, perspeqtiuli
miznebiT, SesaZleblobebiTa da zogadi geopolitikuri mniSvnelobiT, met-
naklebad erTian erTeuls warmoadgens aSS-is politikuri azrisa da misi
strategiuli Tu ekonomikuri interesebisaTvis. am mimarTebiT, misi
mniSvnelobac, rogorc erTiani regionisa, gacilebiT ufro metia vidre
cal-calke aRebuli samive saxelmwifos mniSvneloba. Sesabamisad,
davuSviT, rom regionis mimarT gatarebuli SedarebiT erTiani miznebis da
saSualebebis mqone sagareo politikis pirobebSi, erTi calkeuli
saxelmwifos mimarT warmoebuli politikis ganmasxvavebeli niSnebi yvelaze
kargad swored danarCen saxelmwifoTa mimarT warmoebul politikasTan
SedarebaSi warmoCindeba.
garda zemoaRniSnulisa, saqarTvelos mimarT warmoebuli aSS-is
sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis Sepirispirebam mis
funqcionirebasTan samxreT kavkasiis danarCeni saxelmwifoebis mimarT,
saSualeba mogvca warmogveCina mTlianad regionSi aSS-is sagareo
politikisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli zogadi modelebi.
3. normatul-RirebulebiTi meTodi, romelmac garkveuli movlenebis
arsebul SefasebaTa gamovlinebiT, saSualeba mogvca gangvesazRvra aSS-is
sagareo politikis sistemis monawileTa Sesabamisi RirebulebiTi
poziciebi. aRniSnuli meTodis amosaval pozicias warmoadgens daSveba, rom
politikuri aqtorebi Tavis SefasebebSi eyrdnobian garkveul sayovlTao
Tu subieqtur eTikur normebs, rac am meTodis obieqturobas xSirad
12
sakamaTos xdis. miuxedavad amisa, migvaCnia, rom is RirebulebiTi
Sefasebebi, romlebic wamoweuli iyo Cvens mier saqarTvelosTan
mimarTebaSi sandoa da mniSvnelovanwilad aisaxa sagareo politikis
Sesabamis gadawyvetilebebSi.
4. empiriuli kvlevis meTodi, romelmac sagazeTo publikaciebis,
akademiuri gamocemebis, oficialuri dokumentebis da kongresis mosmenebis
teqstebis analizze dayrdnobiT saSualeba mogvca gangvesazRvra, rogorc
sagareo politikis sistemis monawileTa zemoT aRniSnuli Sefasebebi da
poziciebi, aseve sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze miRebuli
deklaraciuli Tu operaciuli donis Sedegebi.
13
Tavi I
sagareo politikis kvlevis Teoriuli wanamZRvrebi
1.1 sagareo politikis kvlevis mimarTeba saerTaSoriso
urTierTobaTa da Sidapolitologiur kvlevasTan
1948 w. `iuneskos~ rezoluciis klasifikaciiT, sagareo politikis
kvleva saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis farglebSia moqceuli da
gamijnulia politologiis ZiriTadi sakiTxebisagan (Ujyxfhjd^ Ujynfhtdf^ 1996).
dRes gavrcelebuli TvalsazrisiT, zRvari saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa
mecnierebasa da sagareo politikis kvlevas Soris analizis sxvadasxva
doneze gadis (Singer, 1969). viziarebT ra am ori dargis kvlevis saganTa
gamijvnas, analizis donis kriteriums ar miviCnevT am gamijvnis amosaval
wertilad. vTvliT, rom analizis makro done, romelic globalur arenas
moicavs da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa mecnerebas aris mikuTvnebuli,
ucilobliv gasaTvaliswinebelia calkeuli saerTaSoriso aqtorebis
sagareo politikis kvlevisas. sagareo politika, Tavis mxriv, dinamiuri
saerTaSoriso sistemis nawils warmoadgens da yovel mocemul etapze
gansazRvravs mis Sinaarss. urTierToba maT Soris SeiZleba davaxasiaToT
`nawilisa da mTelis~ terminebSi, sadac isini erTmaneTs
komplementarulobis principiT ukavSirdebian.
`iuneskos~ zemoTmoyvanili rezoluciis Sesabamisad, sagareo
politikis kvleva xSirad gamijnulia wminda politologiuri kvlevisagan
da misi fokusi moqceulia saerTaSoriso aqtoris gare samyaroze
orientirebul qmedebebze. meore mxriv, is gamokvlevebi, romlebic
swavloben gacxadebuli sagareo politikis mizezebs, yuradRebas
amaxvileben rogorc saerTaSoriso, aseve Sidapolitikur garemoze. sagareo
politika aq moiazreba, rogorc xelisuflebis ZiriTadi institutis,
14
saxelmwifos, irgvliv koncentrirebul socialur urTierTqmedebaTa
Sedegi.
Cveni interpretaciiT, sagareo politikis damokidebuleba
Sidapolitikur sistemasTan misi saerTaSoriso sitemisadmi
damokidebulebis analogiuria, sadac Sidapolitikuri sistema sagareo
politikis funqcionirebis garemos warmoadgens. sagareo politika, pirvel
rigSi, xom mocemuli sazogadoebis RirebulebebTan mimarTebaSia
relevanturi. Tavis mxriv, sagareo politika qveynis Sidapolitikuri
sistemis erT-erT mniSvnelovan cvlads warmoadgens.
debora gerneris daxasiaTebiT, sagareo politikis mecniereba
politikuri mecnierebis `sakmaod ucnaur dargs warmoadgens~, romelic
exeba rogorc adgilobriv, aseve saerTaSoriso politikur arenas da `xtis~
analizis individualuri donidan sistemur doneze (Gerner, 1991, p.125). Cven
viziarebT sagareo politikis kompleqsur daxasiaTebas, romelic Tanabrad
iTvaliswinebs rogorc qveynis sazRvrebs SigniT mimdinare socialur-
politikur da ekonomikur procesebs, aseve mis sazRvrebs gareT
ganviTarebul saerTaSoriso movlenebs da, jeims rozenaus TqmiT,
warmoadgens `damakavSirebel xids~ saerTaSoriso da saSinao sakiTxebs
Soris (ibid).
sagareo politikis kvlevis sagnis mocemuli interpretacia
Sesabamisad gansazRvravs kvlevis meTodologiasac. qvemoT mokled
davaxasiaTebT ZiriTad Teoriul Tvalsazrisebs, romlebic Tanamedrove
gamokvlevebis meTodologiur konteqsts Seadgenen da Sesabamisad
gansazRvraven Cveni kvlevis meTodologiur aparatsac. 1
1.2 sagareo politikis kvlevis meTodologiebis mimoxilva
sagareo politikis kvlevis arsebul meTodologiebs davaxasiaTebT
maTi ZiriTadi amosavali Tvalsazrisis mixedviT. kerZod, gamovyofT:
1 saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis meTodologiuri sakiTxebis Taobaze ix. daviTaSvili, z., `meTodis problema saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevisas~, qarTuli diplomatia, weliwdeuli 6, Tbilisi 1999, gv. 255-261
15
saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa, politologiur da sistemur Tvalsazrisebs,
romlebic, Tavis mxriv, sagareo politikis analizis mravalmxriv midgomebs
gansazRvraven (bukia, 2002, gv. 78-83).
saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa TvalsazrisiT ganxorcielebuli
sagareo politikis analizi fokusirebulia saxelmwifo qmedebaze, romelic
mis sazRvrebs gareT aris mimarTuli da motivirebulia misi erovnuli
interesebis dasacavad. am Tvalsazrisis WrilSi xasiaTdeba tradiciuli e.w.
istoriul-aRwerilobiTi (an istoriul-iuridiuli) meTodi. igi
faqtobrivad swavlobs saxelmwifosTan gaigivebuli liderebis
saerTaSoriso qcevas da ZiriTadad ugulebelyofs Sidasaxelmwifoebriv
faqtorebs (Dobson and Marsh, 2006; Basevich, 2003; Hook and Spanier, 2000; Ambrose and
Brinkley, 1997; Paterson and Merrill, 1995; Kissinger, 1994; Chace, 1992). Tumca, amgvari
analizis farglebSi aseve figurirebs saerTaSoriso sistema, rogorc
garemo, romlis cvalebadobazec reagirebs saxelmwifo, rogorc
saerTaSorios subieqti (Pettman, 1975, p.41; Green and Twining, 2008). es midgoma,
romelsac jozef nai `saxelmwifo-centrul realizms~ (Nye, citirebulia:
White, 1995, p.11) uwodebs, saerTaSoriso sistemaSi saxelmwifos qcevas
politikuri realizmis terminebSi xsnis.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa Tvalsazriss efuZneba omisa da
mSvidobis bevri Tanamedrove Teoriac. jek kugleri am Teoriebis did
nawils aerTianebs paradigmaSi, romlis ZiriTad niSans saxelmwifoTa
Soris Zalauflebis ganawileba warmoadgens (Kugler, 1991, pp. 187-208). am
Teoriebis WrilSi aseve daculia tradiciuli meTodis iuridiuli aspeqti,
romelic xazs usvams saxelmwifos, rogorc samarTlebrivi subieqtis
statuss saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis aRiarebul struqturaSi. amave
Tvalsazriss SeiZleba mivakuTvnoT midgoma, romlis Tanaxmad qvenis
sagareo politikis warmateba didwilad ganapirobebs misi saSinao
politikis warmatebasac, sadac sagareo da saSinao politikis dialeqtikur
erTianobaSi, `sagareo politikis problemebis gadawyveta upirvelesi
16
mniSvnelobisaa movlenaTa mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSirebis sistemaSi~
(baraTaSvili, 1999, gv.10).
SesaZlebelia mtkiceba, rom Tanamedrove saxelmwifo-centruli
Teoriebi, Tavis mxriv, eyrdnoba axali mimarTulebis SedarebiT istoriul
sociologias da politikur ekonomias. SedarebiTi istoriuli
sociologia wina planze wamowevs saxelmwifos, rogorc erTiani aqtoris,
damoukidebel rols ara marto saerTaSoriso asparezze, aramed TviT
qveynis SigniTac (Booth and Smith, 1995, p.24). msgavsad, Tanamedrove politikuri
ekonomiis midgoma, saxelmwifos ganixilavs, rogorc sakuTari resursebis,
interesebis da ekonomikuri ideologiis mqone damoukidebel erTeuls,
romelic Tavisi ekonomikuri politikis gatarebis mizniT urTierTqmedebaSi
Sedis Sesabamis adgilobriv socialur jgufebTan (Papava, 2006, pp.657-667). 1
d. gerneris, b. munis da sxvaTa azriT, saxelmwifos, rogorc
unitaruli moqmedi piris, rols kidev ufro meti yuradReba unda
eTmobodes sagareo politikis Semdgom gamokvlevebSi, vinaidan sagareo
politikis gageba SeuZlebelia im miznebis, prioritetebis, da SezRudvebis
gareSe, romlebic warmarTaven saxelmwifo qcevas. amdenad, sagareo
politikis nebismieri Teoria amavdroulad unda Seicavdes TviT
saxelmwifos Teoriasac (Gerner, 1991, p. 167; Moon, 1983, pp. 315-340).
Tumca unda aRiniSnos, rom Tanamedrove saxelmwifo-centrul
TeoriebSi aseve gamosWvivis wminda politologiuri Tvalsazrisic.
magaliTad r. rumelis interpretaciiT, saxelmwifo qmedebis analizisas
unda gaTvaliswinebuli iyos is faqti, rom saxelmwifos saxeliT moqmedi
`avtoritetuli~ elitis ukan dganan individualuri pirebi, romlebic
moqmedeben Sesabamisi politikur, biurokratiul da sazogadoebriv ZalTa
balansis garemoSi (Rummel, 1979); xolo jorj modelskis, uiliam tomsonis,
Carlz doranis da sxvaTa argumentaciiT, saerTaSoriso konfliqtebis
mizezebi saxelmwifoTa Sidapolitikur dinamikaSi unda veZioT da ara
1 Tanamedrove SedarebiTi istoriuli sociologiis da politikuri ekonomiis Teoriebis mimoxilva ix.: Geddes, Barbara, "Paradigms and Sand Castles in Comparative Politics of Developing Areas", Comparative Politics, Policy, and International Relations, Northwestern University Press, Evanston, Illinois, 1991, pp. 59-62
17
saxelmwifoTa urTierTqmedebaSi (Modelsky, 1987, Thompson, 1988, Doran, 1990,
citirebulia: Kugler, 1991, p.209).
sagareo politikis analizis `politologiuri~ Tvalsazrisi kvlevis
amosaval wertilad qveynis Sida politikur sistemas miiCnevs, sadac
analizis ZiriTadi obieqti aris ara saxelmwifos abstraqcia, aramed
sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli individebis qceva (Wallace, 1971, p.7). am
midgomis WrilSi Seiswavleba faqtorebi, romlebic zegavlenas axdenen
gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesze da moicaven, rogorc fsiqologiur
(kognituri procesebi), aseve sociologiur (socialuri struqtura da
socialuri jgufebi) aspeqtebs. aRniSnuli midgoma, romelic Tavdapirvelad
gamoikveTa r. snaideris, h. brukis, b. sapinis publikaciaSi (Snyder, Bruck, Sapin,
1954, citirebulia: Gerner, 1991, pp.134-135) da literaturaSi cnobilia,
rogorc `gadawyvetilebis miRebis midgoma~, viTardeboda politikur
mecnierebaSi biheviorizmis bumis fonze.
gadawyvetilebis miRebis empiriuli analizis Tvalsazrisi asaxulia
`SedarebiTi sagareo politikis~ mimarTulebaSi, romelic amave dros
cdilobs SeimuSavos sagareo politikis axsnis zogadi Teoria. kerZod,
jeims rozenaus Semoaqvs gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesisaTvis arsebiTi
faqtorebis kategoriebi, romlebic moicavs individualur, rolur,
samTavrobo, sazogadoebriv da sistemur faqtorebs da romelTa
rangirebac SesaZlebelia konkretuli saxelmwifos maxasiaTeblebis da
sagareo politikis konkretuli sakiTxebis mixedviT (Rosenau, 1966,
citirebulia: Gerner, 1991, pp.135-136). aRniSnuli kategoriebis SemoReba,
pirvel rigSi, warmoadgens sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli faqtorebis
tipologizaciis mcdelobas, romlis mizania ganxorcieldes erTze meti
saxelmwifos sagareo politikis kvleva. am mimarTulebis farglebSi
muSavdeba agreTve `movlenaTa monacemTa bazebi~ (CREON-Comparative Research on
the Events of Nations; COPDAB-Conflict and Peace Data Bank, ICBD - International Crisis
Behaviour Datasets), romlebic aRweren aqtorebis qmedebebs Sida da
18
saerTaSoriso asparezze. 1 amgvar monacemTa bazebs akritikeben
arasrulyofilebis da SerCevis subieqturi kriteriumebis gamo, Tumca
miviCnevT, rom aRniSnuli midgomis erT-erT mniSvnelovan mxares (garda
imisa, rom igi scildeba erTi konkretuli kulturul-istoriuli sociumis
farglebs) warmoadgens saxelmwifos Sida politikisa da saerTaSoriso
politikis gadakveTis wertilebis Zieba, rac Tavis empiriul gamoxatulebas
swored rom mravalmxriv monacemTa bazebSi poulobs. magram aqve unda
aRiniSnos, rom aRniSnuli midgoma wminda aRwerilobiTi xasiaTisaa da
iseTi faqtorebi, rogoric aris evoluciuri procesebi da sistemuri
cvlilebebi mis farglebs gareT rCeba.
maSin rodesac SedarebiTi sagareo politikis midgoma cdilobs
Camoayalibos sagareo politikis analizis zogadTeoriuli modeli,
literaturaSi gamoikveTeba politologiuri analizis calkeuli
midgomebic, romlebic gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesis garkveul
aspeqtebze amaxvileben yuradRebas. am midgomebs Soris gamovyofT:
`racionaluri aqtoris~ qmedebis analizis midgomas (March, Olsen, 1984; Posner
and Vermeule, 2007); koleqtiuri qmedebisa da biurokratiuli procesis
analizis midgomas (Art, 1973; Fabbrini and Sicurelli, 2008); gadawyvetilebis miRebis
procesze arasaxelmwifoebrivi aqtorebis gavlenis Seswavlis modgomas
(Moore, 1974; East, 1978; Schwarz, 2008); kognituri procesebis da individis
Seswavlis midgomas (Alexander, 1969; Kalaitzidis, 2007; Kaarbo, 2008); da
gadawyvetilebis miRebis analizs krizisul situaciebSi (Holsti, North and
Brody, 1964; McClelland,1972; Williams, 1982). unda aRiniSnos, rom CamoTvlili
midgomebi sazogadoebriv konteqsts (bunebrivia, gansxvavebuli
interpretaciiT) gadawyvetilebis miRebis situaciis erT-erT ZiriTad
faqtorad ganixilaven, Tumca TviT am konteqstis ganmsazRvreli
parametrebi maTi yuradRebis miRma rCeba.
1 monacemTa bazebis mimoxilva ix: Gerner, Deborah J. " Foreign Policy Analysis: Renaissance, Routine, or Rubbish?" Comparative Politics, Policy, and International Relations, Northwestern University Press, Evanston, Illinois, 1991. pp.157-161
19
sistemuri Tvalsazrisi eyrdnoba postulats, rom sagareo politikis
analizi realurad hkveTs ori disciplinis, saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis
da politologiis sazRvrebs da mxedvelobaSi iRebs, rogorc
saerTaSoriso, aseve Sidapolitikur procesebs, romelTa farglebSic
xorcieldeba Sesabamisi informaciis gadamuSaveba da gadawyvetilebis
miReba.
sistemuri analizis oponentebis mtkicebiT, romlebic exmianebian
Tavis droze bihevioristuli kvlevebisadmi gamoTqmul kritikas, sistemuri
analizi daiyvaneba raodenobriv sidideebze da Tavs aridebs politikuri
cxovrebis abstraqciebs (Bull, 1966). Tumca aqve gvinda avRniSnoT, rom
politikuri procesebis sistemuri kvleva, Cveni rwmeniT, pirvel rigSi,
warmoadgens, am procesebs Soris arsebul mizez-Sedegobriv kavSirebze
mkvlevaris Sexedulebis warmodgenis xerxs. amave dros, sistemuri
analizisaTvis ar aris ucxo ganzogadoebuli kategoriebiT apelireba.
1974 w. riCard hoferbertma SeimuSava politikuri procesis
konceptualuri CarCo, sadac gatarebuli politikis Sedegebi
warmodgenilia damokidebuli cvladebis saxiT da ganixileba, rogorc
istoriul-geografiuli da socialur-ekonomikuri pirobebis funqcia
(Hofferbert, 1974, citirebulia: Sabatier, 1991, pp. 273-285). aRniSnuli midgoma
mniSvnelovania im kuTxiT, rom Sidapolitikuri procesebis kvlevas igi
warmarTavs sazogadoebaTmcodneobis dargTaSorisi Seswavlis
TvalsazrisiT. meore mxriv, masSi ar aris gaxsnili saxelisuflebo
institutebis qcevis Sida meqanizmebi, iseve rogorc politikis Sedegebis
ukuqmedeba mocemul faqtorebze.
jon kingdomis mier Camoyalibebuli midgoma politikis SemuSavebis
procesisadmi aseve mravalaspeqtiania da moicavs sam `nakads~: 1. problemaTa
nakads; 2. politikuri analizis nakads; da 3. Tavad politikur nakads
(Kingdom, 1984, citirebulia: Sabatier, 1991, pp. 278-279 ). kingdomis Tanaxmad,
mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi politikaSi xorcieldeba maSin rodesac samive
nakadi erTdroulad iyris Tavs. kingdomis midgoma, iTvaliswinebs ra
20
politikuri procesis mraval gareSe faqtors, farToa da scdeba
institucionalizmis Tu individualuri subieqtivizmis calsaxa
Tvalsazrisebs. Tumca, kingdomis mimarT gamoTqmuli ZiriTadi pretenzia
mdgomareobs im pirobebis ganusazRvrelobaSi, rodesac adgili aqvs
aRniSnuli samive nakadis Tanxvedras.
sabatieris mier SemoTavazebuli Sidapolitikuri procesis analizis
konceptualuri CarCo aerTianebs zemoT moyvanili midgomebis bevr
elements. politikis cvlilebas garkveuli drois periodSi igi ganixilavs
rogorc faqtorebis sami simravlis -- metoqe koaliciebis urTierTqmedebis,
gareSe cvlilebebis da stabiluri sistemuri parametrebis -- funqcias.
dinamiuri da stabiluri elementebis Serwyma niSandoblivia sabatieris
analizisTvis (Sabatier, 1991, pp. 279-280).
sagareo politikis sistemuri analizis erT-erTi pirveli mcdeloba
ganxorcielebulia israelis magaliTze maikl brexeris mier (Brecher, 1972),
romlis mier SemoTavazebuli sqema iTvaliswinebs: sagareo politikis
operaciul garemos, fsiqologiur garemos (politikuri elitis midgomebsa
da gareSe samyaros xatebs), gadawyvetilebis miRebis process da saboloo
Sedegebs. brexeris sistema kompleqsuri formiT warmoadgens erTi
saxelmwifos sagareo politikis funqcionirebis sxvadasxva etaps, Tumca
masSi ar Cans TiToeuli etapisaTvis gamoyofili faqtorebis
urTierTqmedebis pirobebi. amave dros, brexeris sqema gamoyofs zogad
maxasiaTeblebs, romelTa dadgenac arsebiTi unda iyos sagareo politikis
sistemuri warmodgenis nebismieri mcdelobisaTvis.
aRniSnuli analizis xerxebi politikuri procesis ueWvelad
mravalfaqtorian suraTs warmoaCens, magram maTSi ar aris naCvenebi
gamoyofili faqtorebis mimarTeba politikuri procesis etapebTan, Tu ra
funqcias asruleben konkretuli faqtorebi politikuri procesis
sxvadasxva etapze da rogoria korelacia TviT am etapebs Soris. aRniSnul
midgomebSi, aseve naklebi yuradReba eqceva TviT politikuri procesis
Sedegebsa da maT ukuqmedebas aRniSnul faqtorebze.
21
aRniSnuli mosazrebebis gaTvaliswinebiT, Cveni kvlevis miznebisaTvis
mizanSewonilad migvaCnia gamoviyenoT sagareo politikis sistemuri
analizis midgoma, romelic sakmaod farTo da moqnilia, raTa moicvas is
mravalganzomilebiani procesebi, romlebic monawileoben sagareo
politikis formirebaSi.
1.3 sagareo politikis sistemuri analizi
1.3.1 sagareo politikis sistemis konceptualuri da operaciuli
gansazRvreba
sistemuri analizis erT-erTi fuZemdeblis devid istonis
daxasiaTebiT, `politikuri sistema warmoadgens urTierTqmedebebs,
romelTa meSveobiTac xdeba Rirebulebebis avtoritetuli mikuTvneba
sazogadoebisadmi~ (Easton, 1979, p.21). Tuki politikuri sistemis istoniseul
definicias ganvavrcobT sagareo politikis sistemisaTvis, SegviZlia
vTqvaT, rom sagareo politikis sistemis urTierqmedebebis Sedegad xdeba
misTvis damaxasiaTebeli Rirebulebebis proecireba gareSe sazogadoebriv
sistemaze. amave dros, Tu Sidapolitikuri sistemis mier SemuSavebuli
Rirebulebebi met-naklebad savaldebuloa mocemuli saxelmwifos
sazogadoebisaTvis, amgvari valdebuleba ar arsebobs im gareSe
sazogadoebisaTvis, romelzec mimarTulia Sesabamisi sagareo politika.
amgvarad, konceptualur doneze, sagareo politikis sistemas Cven
davaxasiaTebdiT, rogorc urTierTqmedebebis erTobliobas, romelTa
meSveobiTac xdeba Rirebulebebis ara-aucilebeli mikuTvneba mocemuli
sistemis gareT mdebare sazogadoebisadmi. operaciul doneze, sagareo
poltikis sistema warmodgenilia, rogorc droiTi da sivrciTi
urTierTqmedebebis erToblioba, romelic funqcionirebs Sesabamis garemoSi
da reagirebs am garemosaTvis damaxasiaTebel Sesabamis parametrebze da maT
Semadgenel cvladebze. amgvari dinamiuri sistema tradiciulad Seicavs
sam ZiriTad etaps: Sesavals, process da gamosavals. gamosavalze
miRebuli Sedegebi Tavis mxriv aisaxeba sistemis garemoSi da kvlav
22
gardaiqmneba im Sesaval faqtorebad, romlebzedac reagirebs sistema. amave
dros, sagareo politikis sistemuri warmodgena gulisxmobs Semdegi
debulebebis gaTvaliswinebas: 1. sistema efuZneba parametrebs, romlebic
Sedgeba Sesabamisi cvladebisgan. 2. sistema mocemulia erT mTlianobaSi 3.
sistema asaxavs dinamiur process. 4. sistema funqcionirebs Sesabamis
garemoSi (Clarke, 1989, pp. 27-55).
gamomdinare zemoTqmulidan, sagareo politikis sistemis sqemis
Camoyalibeba moiTxovs Semdegi nabijebis ganxorcielebas: 1. sistemis
ganmsazRvreli parametrebis da cvladebis gamoyofis kriteriumebis
dadgena; 2. sistemis ganmsazRvreli parametrebis da cvladebis gamoyofa; 3.
gamoyofil parametrebs Soris arsebuli mimarTebebis dadgena; 4. sistemasa
da misi funqcionirebis garemos Soris urTierTqmedebis dinamikis Cveneba.
1.3.2 sagareo politikis sistemis parametrebi da cvladebi
sistemis parametrebis da cvladebis gamoyofis kriteriumebi
sagareo politikis sistemis parametrebis da cvladebis
gansazRvrisas, Cven amovdivarT Semdegi kriteriumebidan: 1. sistema
funqcionirebs garkveuli parametrebis mixedviT, rac ganapirobebs sistemis
funqcionirebis reJimebs. 2. vinaidan sagareo politikis sistemas Cven
ganvixilavT, rogorc drois mocemul monakveTSi moqmed dinamiur sistemas,
mis parametrebad miviCnevT faqtorebs (procesebs), romlebic drois
mocemul monakveTSi gamoirCevian SedarebiTi mdgradobiT da zemoqmedeben
sistemaze. 3. sistemis cvladebad miviCnevT faqtorebs (movlenebs), romlebic
drois mocemul monakveTSi gamoirCevian SedarebiTi dinamiurobiT da
gansazRvraven sistemis parametrebis Sinaarss. 3. sistemis Semadgeneli
cvladis, rogorc sistemis funqcionirebis reJimis ganmsazRvreli
parametris Semadgeneli nawilis, arsebiTi Secvla iwvevs sistemis
gamosavalze miRebuli Sedegebis arsebiT Secvlas.
sagareo politikis sistemis Semadgeneli cvladebis daxasiaTeba
1. politikur sistemaze garemos zemoqmedebis struqturirebis mizniT
literaturaSi miRebulia sistemis `Sesavali~ faqtorebis cneba. devid
23
istonis ganmartebiT, Sesavali faqtorebi warmoadgenen `jamur cvladebs,~
romlebSic koncentrirebuli saxiT asaxulia sistemis operirebisaTvis
arsebiTi yvela gareSe movlena. istoni Sesaval faqtorebs or farTo
kategoriaSi -- moTxovnaTa faqtorebis (demands) da mxardaWeris faqtorebis
(support) kategoriaSi aerTianebs, romelTa cvalebadobis Sedegad, garemos
movlenebi `gadaecema~ politikur sistemas (Easton, 1979, pp.27-128).
sistemis Sesavali faqtorebis analogiur warmodgenas iZleva maikl
klarkic. sistemis Sesavalze arsebul mkafiod gamokveTil faqtorebs
klarki axasiaTebs, rogorc garkveul zewolas gadawyvetilebis mimRebi
pirebis mimarT, xolo naklebad gamokveTili faqtorebs, - rogorc
gadawyvetilebis mimRebi pirebis mxardaWeras, an ubralod, rogorc
arsebul tradicias (Clark,1989, pp.27-55).
veTanxmebiT ra garemos faqtorebis ZiriTad diqotomias, migvaCnia, rom
sistemis Sesaval stadiaze faqtorebis dayofa `moTxovnebis~ da
`mxardaWeris~ kategoriebad naadrevia. Sesavali faqtorebi amgvar
kategoriebad SeiZleba Camoyalibdnen mxolod mas Semdeg rac isini
urTierTqmedebaSi Sevlen politikuri sistemis operirebis meore etapis,
gadawyvetilebis miRebis etapis, faqtorebTan, anu mxolod mas Semdeg rac
isini urTierTqmedebaSi Sevlen politikur gadawyvetilebebze
pasuxismgebel biurokratiul da politikur aparatTan da gaivlian
interpretirebisa da Sefasebis process. xolo, manam sanam aRniSnuli
faqtorebi ar daeqvemdebarebian legitimuri biurokratiuli da politikuri
xasiaTis formalur Tu araformalur damuSavebas, migvaCnia, rom maTi
daxasiaTeba ufro marTebuli iqneboda SedarebiT `nedli~ stimuli-
cvladebis saxiT. Sesabamisad, gamovyofdiT ori tipis cvladebs:
cvladebi, romlebic Sesaval etapzeve garkveuli xarisxiT orientacias
ucvlian politikur sistemas da ubiZgeben mas Tvisobrivad axali tipis
Sedegebis miRebisaken; da cvladebi, romlebic ar ubiZgeben sistemas amgvari
qmedebisaken. pirveli tipis, ase vTqvaT, `radikaluri~ cvladebi,
bunebrivia, xasiaTdebian gansxvavebuli intensivobiT, sadac zemoqmedeba
24
SeiZleba iyos sruliad erTmniSvnelovani da interpretirebis mxolod
umniSvnelo arCevans tovebdes, an sadac miuxedavad garkveuli zewolisa,
interpretirebis SesaZleblobebi sakmaod farToa. meore tipis, ase vTqvaT,
`liberaluri~ cvladebi ar ubiZgeben sistemas Tvisobrivad axali
rezultatebisken da mas saSualebas aZleven met-naklebad igive `reJimSi~
gaagrZelos funqcionireba. Tavisi intensivobiT liberaluri cvladebi
aseve SeiZleba gansxvavdebodnen, imis da mixedviT, Tu ra xarisxiT iZlevian
isini arsebuli reJimis SenarCunebis saSualebas.
2. sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze devs faqtorebi,
romlebic aseve SeiZleba davaxasiaToT, rogorc `jamuri cvladebi,~
romlebSic koncentrirebuli saxiT asaxulia sistemis Sida procesis
dasrulebisas miRweuli Sedegebi. literaturaSi am faqtorebs ZiriTadad
axasiaTeben, rogorc saerTaSoriso asparezze saxelmwifoTa qmedebebs da
xSirad ugulebelyofen maT kavSirs im politikur procesebTan, romlebic
uSualod ganapirobeben gadawyvetilebis miRebis etaps; an dahyavT isini
saxelmwifo qmedebaTa simravleze, romlis klasifikacia ar efuZneba raime
erTian kriteriumebs da xSirad urTierTgadamfaravia.
gvinda davazustoT, rom sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze,
rogorc gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesis uSualod momdevno etapze,
pirvel rigSi, devs sistemis moqmedebis Sedegad miRebuli gadawyvetilebebi,
romlebic SeiZleba `realizebuli~ iyvnen Sesabimisi dokumentebis saxiT.
gamosavali etapis am pirvel dones Cven vuwodebT `deklaraciul~ dones da
mas mivakuTvnebT im gadawyvetilebebs, romlebic xorcieldeba aRweriTi,
brZanebiTi, instruqciuli, protokoluri, Tu sakuTriv deklaraciuli
dokumentebis saxiT. sistemis winare etapebis zemoqmedebis Sedegad,
deklaraciuli donis Sedegebs, SesaZlebelia mohyves Semdgomi, ufro
intensiuri ZalisxmeviT miRweuli `operaciuli donis~ Sedegebi.
operaciul SedegTa kategoriaSi Cven vaerTianebT miRebuli
gadawyvetilebebis Sesabamis qmedebebs, romlebic, Tavis mxriv, SeiZleba
iyos diplomatiur-politikuri, ekonomikuri Tu samxedro xasiaTis. sistemis
funqcionirebis deklaraciul da operaciul Sedegebs Soris ar aris
25
calsaxa damokidebuleba. realuri qmedeba uSualod SeiZleba mxolod
garkveuli tipis gadawyvetilebebs mosdevdes, romlebic, Tavis mxriv,
sistemaze `radikaluri~ cvladebis zemoqmedebis Sedegs unda
warmoadgendnen. deklaraciuli gadawyvetilebebis didi nawili ar
saWiroebs raime qmedebis Sesrulebas (magaliTad, aRweriTi an sakuTriv
deklaraciuli tipis dokumentebi). am tipis gadawyvetilebebs
literaturaSi `TviT-ganxorcielebad~ gadawyvetilebebsac uwodeben (Clark,
Smith, 1989, p. 170). Tumca, am tipis gadawyvetilebebis gavlena saerTaSoriso
sistemaze, ra Tqma unda, SeiZleba Zalze Zlieri iyos. am or zRvrul
SesaZleblobas Soris SeiZleba arsebobdes gadawyvetilebebisa da
Sesabamisi qmedebebis urTierTmimarTebaTa mravalricxovani variaciebi,
romlebic Tanmimdevrulobis xarisxis mixedviT yoveli konkretuli
SemTxvevisTvis SeiZleba gansxvavebuli iyos. meore mxriv, arsebobs aseve
garkveuli Seusabamobis problema politikosebis mier miRebul
gadawyvetilebebsa da maT ganxorcielebas Soris, rasac literaturaSi
`Canacvlebis~ movlenasac uwodeben (Clark, Smith, 1989, pp. 163-183). aq
aRsaniSnavia is garemoeba, rom swored operaciuli Sedegebi, yvelaze
TvalnaTliv warmoaCenen saxelmwifos qcevas saerTaSoriso sistemis
konteqstSi, da swored isini ganapirobeben yvelaze mkafiod sxva
saxelmwifoTa Sesabamis reagirebas. amdenad, sagareo politikis kvlevaSi
urTierTmimarTebas deklaraciul da operaciul Sedegebs Soris didi
mniSvneloba unda eniWebodes.
3. sistemis Sesavalsa da gamosavals Soris devs gadawyvetilebebis miRebis
rTuli procesi, romelsac literaturaSi xSirad `Sav yuTs~ uwodeben.
maikl klarki gvTavazobs gadawyvetilebebis miRebis procesis Semdeg
sqematur etapebs: pirvel etapze adgili aqvs Sesavalze arsebuli
faqtorebis interpretacias, romlis procesSic erTmeneTTan
urTierTqmedeben sistemis biurokratiuli manqana da individualuri
fsiqologiuri faqtorebi. meore etapze, amgvarad interpretirebuli
faqtorebi ukve yalibdeba sagareo politikis sakiTxebad, romelTac
26
gadawyvetilebis mimRebi pirebisTvis garkveuli politikuri datvirTva
aqvT. daskvniT etapze, gamokveTili sakiTxebi, kvlav gaivlian ra adaptacias
sistemis biurokratiul da fsiqologiur qselSi, yalibdebian, maqsimum,
rogorc sagareo politikis miznebi da, minimum, rogorc sakiTxebi,
romlebic ar moiTxovs raime reagirebas.
zogadad viziarebT ra klarkis mier gamoyofil etapebs, migvaCnia,
rom gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesze, garda biurokratiuli da
fsiqologiuri faqtorebisa, zegavlenas axdens mTeli wyeba faqtorebisa,
romlebic saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistemis struqturiT arian
ganpirobebulni. amave dros, sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis
ganxilvisas, amosaval postulatad miviCnevT, rom sagareo politikaze
pasuxismgebeli aparati, masze zemoqmedebis yvela faqtoris
gaTvaliswinebiT, gadawyvetilebis miRebisas xelmZRvanelobs ZiriTadi
orientiriT -- qveynis erovnuli interesebiT. erovnuli interesebis cnebisa
da misi sxvadasxva tipebis literaturaSi arsebuli analizis
gaTvaliswinebiT (macaberiZe, 1992, gv.17-30; oTinaSvili, 2002, gv.2-25; rondeli,
1996, gv. 90), ganzogadoebuli formiT CamovayalibebT, rom saxelmwifos
erovnuli interesebi moicavs misi sicocxlisunarionobis uzrunvelyofis
grZel- Tu moklevadian amocanebs, romlebic yoveli mocemuli istoriuli
periodisaTvis ganisazRvreba arsebuli saerTaSoriso sistemisa da
saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistemis mdgomareobiT. amdenad, SeiZleba
iTqvas, rom rogorc sagareo politikis SemuSavebis ZiriTadi orientiri,
erovnuli interesebi ganisazRvreba swored rom igive faqtorebiT,
romlebic devs sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze, Tumca, rogorc
idealuri kategoria, naklebad eqvemdebareba biurokratiul Tu
fsiqologiur zegavlenas. amave dros, sasicocxlo mniSvnelobis,
grZelvadian erovnul interesebs ganvixilavT, rogorc sistemis SedarebiT
mdgrad parametrebs, romelTac gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba eniWebaT
sistemis Sesaval etapze. meorexarisxovan da moklevadian erovnul
interesebs ganvixilavT, rogorc sistemis cvladebs, romlebic
27
gansakuTrebiT qmediTia sistemis Sualeduri, gadawyvetilebis miRebis
etapze.
amgvarad, sagareo politikis formirebis da ganxorcielebis procesi
Semdegi gamartivebuli sqemis saxiT SegviZlia warmovadginoT:
garemo
Sesavali
erovnuli interesebi
procesi
garemo
gamosavali
1. radikaluri cvladebi
2. Sualeduri cvladebi
3.liberaluri cvladebi
1. interpretacia
2.sakiTxebis gamokveTa
3. gadawyvetilebis miReba
1. deklaraciuli Sedegebi
2. Sualeduri Sedegebi
3. operaciuli Sedegebi
1.3.3 sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis garemo
politikuri sistemis garemosTan urTierTqmedebis analizisas, xSirad
apelireben e.w. `ekvilibriumis~ modeliT, romlis Tanaxmad, politikuri
sistema, reagirebs ra garemos madestabilizirebel zegavlenaze, iRwvis
wonasworobis SesanarCuneblad. amgvarad, sistemis realuri amocana
gagebulia, rogorc stabiluri garemos SenarCuneba. Cven ver daveTanxmebiT
sistemisa da garemos urTierTqmedebis amgvar interpretacias. erTi mxriv,
sistemis mizani SeiZleba iyos arsebuli wonasworobis rReva, xolo, meore
mxriv, politikur sistema, da kerZod sagareo politikis sistema, ara
mxolod reagirebs garemos gareSe stimulebze, aramed SeuZlia TviTonac
moaxdinos garemoze zemoqmedeba, raTa Tavisi miznebis Sesabamisad
gardaqmnas misTvis arasasurveli gareSe faqtorebi.
da mainc, ramdenad gansazRvravs garemo sagareo politikis
formirebas da mis mimarTulebas?
saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa disciplinaSi gamokveTilia
deterministuli Tvalsazrisi, romlis Tanaxmad, sagareo politika
mTlianad ganisazRvreba arsebuli saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa garemoTi.
es Tvalsazrisi aerTianebs ZalTa balansis, saerTaSoriso ekonomikur
28
urTierTobebis da e.w. `damokidebulebis~ Teoriebs. ra Tqma unda, Znelia
imis uaryofa, rom bevr SemTxvevaSi saxelmwifs sagareo politika
ganisazRvreba arsebuli globaluri politikuri da ekonomikuri
urTierTmimarTebebiT. amave dros, rogorc aRniSnaven Fharold da
margareT sprautebi, marTalia sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli pirebi
SezRudulni arian TavianT arCevanSi, maTi gadawyvetilebebi ar aris
absoluturad determinirebuli gareSe struqturebis mier (Sprout, 1965,
citirebulia: Clark, White, 1989, p.98). avtorebi aRniSnaven garkveuli
Sualeduri mdgomareobebis amsaxvel Tvalsazrisebs, maT Soris: 1. `garemos
albaTobis~ Tvalsazriss, romlis Tanaxmad, garemo gansazRvravs garkveuli
politikuri Sedegebis miRebis albaTobas; da 2. `kognituri biheviorizmis~
Tvalsazriss, romlis Tanaxmad, gadawyvetilebis mimReb pirebs, maT mier
garemos aRqmis Sesabamisad, gadawyvetilebis miRebis sakmao Tavisufleba
aqvT. krisToper ferandsi garemosa da sagareo politikas Soris
damokidebulebis Taobaze arsebul Tvalsazrisebs Tavs uyris sqematuri
samkuTxedis saxiT, romlis wverebzec ganlagebulia: `Tavisufali arCevani,~
`kognituri determinizmi~ da `eqstra-struqturuli determinizmi~ da
romelic saSualebas iZleva ganisazRvros mkvlevaris Tvalsazrisi imis da
mixedviT, Tu rogoria misi pozicia am sami midgomis mimarT (Farrands, 1989, p.
99).
sisitemuri analizis TvalsazrisiT, rogorc avRniSneT, garemo
gansazRvravs sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebas, imdenad
ramdenadac misi faqtorebi warmoadgenen sistemis Sesavalze arsebul
faqtorebs (parametrebsa da cvladebs), xolo sistemis gamosavalze
miRebuli faqtorebi (Sedegebi) kvlav ubrundebian garemos wiaRs.
arsebobs TviT garemos analizisa da misi kategorizaciis
sxvadasxva midgomebic.
devid istonis Tanaxmad, politikuri sistemis garemo moicavs `Sida-
sazogadoebriv~ da `gare-sazogadoebriv~ garemos. `Sida-sazogadoebrivi~
garemo Seicavs ekologiur, biologiur, pirovnebaTa da socialur
29
sistemebs. `gare-sazogadoebrivi~ garemo Seicavs yvela im sistemas, romelic
mocemuli sazogadoebis gareT Zevs, warmoadgens saerTaSoriso
`zesazogadoebis~ funqcionalur segmentebs da aerTianebs: saerTaSoriso
politikur sistemas, saerTaSoriso ekologiur sistemas da saerTaSoriso
socialur sistemas. Tavis mxriv, TviToeuli gamoyofili sistema
calkeuli qvesistemebisagan Sedgeba. istonis ganmartebiT, garemos es ori
kategoria, zemoqmedebs ra politikuri sistemis arsebul mdgomareobaze,
mas SeiZleba `stresis~ mdgomareobaSi aqcevdes, Tumca stresis ukugdeba,
amave dros, sistemis Tanamavali Tvisebacaa (Easton, 1979, p..22-25). garemos
istoniseuli daxasiaTeba exmaureba zemoxsenebul `ekvilibriumis~ models,
sadac wina planze wamoweulia `Widili~ sistemasa da garemos Soris.
Tumca, vTvliT, rom garemos egzom farTo warmodgena mouxerxebelia
politikuri sistemis romelime konkretuli tipis, maT Soris sagareo
politikis sistemis, analizis praqtikuli miznebisaTvis.
miRebulia agreTve saerTaSoriso da adgilobrivi garemos gamoyofa,
sadac ZiriTad ganmasxvavebel niSnad xelisuflebis koncentraciis
sxvadasxva xarisxia miCneuli. zemoT aRniSnuli fsiqologiuri faqtorebis
gaTvaliswinebiT, aseve miRebulia diqotomia, sadac erTi mxriv, gamoyofen
fsiqologiur garemos, xolo, meore mxriv, operaciul garemos.
fsiqologiuri garemo yalibdeba gadawyvetilebis mimRebi pirebis mier maT
irgvliv arsebuli samyaros aRqmis Sesabamisad, xolo operaciuli garemo,
gulisxmobs ra politikis obieqtur samyaros, Tavis mxriv Seicavs garemoTa
iseT saxeobebs, rogoricaa: saxelmwifos socialuri struqtura da
kultura, Sida ekonomikuri garemo, fizikuri garemo, da bolos,
saerTaSoriso sistemis struqtura, rogorc urTierTvaldebulebaTa
erToblioba. 1
garemos amgvari mravlobiTi tipebis gamoyofa xSirad ar iZleva maTi
erTmaneTisagan mkafio gamijvnis saSualebas, radganac maTi Tvisobrivi
1 sagareo politikis garemos tipebis klasifikaciebis mimoxilva ixileT:Farrands C., The Context of Foreign Policy Systems: Environment and Structure, in Clarke M., White, B., Understanding Foreign Policy, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1989, pp. 84-107.
30
maxasiaTeblebi sakmaod urTierTgadamfaravia. analizis praqtikuli
miznebidan gamomdinare, mizanSewonilad migvaCnia sagareo politikis
sistemis funqcionirebis erTiani garemos gamartivebuli modelis
warmodgena, romlis SemadgenlobaSic Seva gansxvavebuli faqtorebis
urTierTqmedebaze dafuZnebuli qvesistemebi. uxeSad gamovyofT sam aseT
qvesistemas: 1. saerTaSoriso sistemas, romlis farglebSic funqcionirebs
rogorc sagareo politikis ganmaxorcielebeli `subieqti~ saxelmwifo,
aseve aRniSnuli sagareo politikis `obieqti~ saxelmwifo. 2. `subieqti~
saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema. 3. `obieqti~ saxelmwifos
Sidapolitikuri sistema da sagareo politikis orientacia. rogorc zemoT
avRniSneT, am qvesistemebis damaxasiaTebeli is faqtorebi, romlebic drois
mocemul monakveTSi ar eqvemdebarebian mniSvnelovan cvlilebas, ganxiluli
iqneba rogorc garemos `mudmivi~ parametrebi. aRniSnuli parametrebi,
drois mocemuli monakveTisaTvis, Tavisi Sinaarsobrivi datvirTviT
gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJimebs. xolo
garemos is faqtorebi, romlebic drois mocemul monakveTSi meti
cvalebadobiT xasiaTdebian da TavianT erTobliobaSi Seadgenen Sesabamis
parametrebs, ganxiluli iqneba, rogorc garemos cvladebi, romlebic
pirdapir an arapirdapir zemoqmedeben sagareo politikis sistemaze.
rogorc avRniSneT, e.w. `radikaluri~ cvladebi ubiZgeben sistemas
Tvisobrivad axali Sedegebis miRebisaken, xolo `liberaluri~ cvladebi
saSualebas aZleven sistemas met-naklebad Cveul `reJimSi~ ganagrZos
muSaoba.
1.3.3.1 saerTaSoriso sistema
Cveni modelis Tanaxmad, sagareo politikis sistemis garemos
pirobiTad pirvel umniSvnelovanes Sres warmoadgens saerTaSoriso sistema.
literaturaSi aRiniSneba saerTaSoriso sistemis mravalnairi
maxasiaTeblebi, romlebic sruliad gansxvavebul kriteriumebs efuZneba.
31
magaliTad, qvinsi raiti gamoyofs eqvs analitikuri tipis
maxasiaTebels, romelic gansazRvravs saerTaSoriso aqtorebis
urTierTmimarTebebs saerTaSoriso sivrceSi. es maxasiaTeblebia:
ekonomikuri ganviTarebis xarisxi; politikuri decentralizaciis xarisxi;
siZlieris xarisxi; saerTaSoriso vaWrobisa da komunikaciis ganviTarebis
xarisxi; teqnologiuri ganviTarebis xarisxi; da resursebis misawvdomobis
xarisxi (citirebulia: Rummel, 1979). r. rumeli saerTaSoriso sistemas, an
misi TqmiT, saerTaSoriso sazogadoebas, warmoadgens Semdeg Tvisebebze
dayrdnobiT: -- saerTaSoriso sazogadoeba warmoadgens konfliqtisa da
Zalauflebis Tanafardobas; -- saerTaSoriso sazogadoeba emyareba gacvliT
urTierTobebs; -- saerTaSoriso sazogadoeba imarTeba libertaruli
politikuri zesistemis meSveobiT (ibid). SeiZleba iTqvas, rom rogorc
raitis aseve rumelis mier gamoyofili maxasiaTeblebi faqtiurad
daiyvaneba konfliqtisa da TanamSromlobis maxasiaTeblebze. gamokveTilia
saerTaSoriso sistemis daxasiaTebis sxva aqcentebic. kerZod, raimon aroni
gvTavazobs saerTaSoriso sistemis iseT ZiriTad Tvisebas, rogoricaa
samxedro Zalis gamoyenebis legitimuroba (gansxvavebiT saxelmwifos Sida
sistemisagan, sadac Zalis gamoyeneba TiTqosda aralegitimuria) (Aron, 1967,
citirebulia: Rummel, 1979). arsebobs Tvalsazrisic, romelic saerTaSoriso
sistemas qaoturobis niSniT axasiaTebs. kerZod, stenli hofmani
saerTaSoriso sistemas, gansxvavebiT Sidapolitikuri sistemisagan,
warmoadgens rogorc maRali ganusazRvrelobis xarisxis mqone sivrces
(Hoffmann, 1965, citirebulia: ibid).
migvaCnia, rom miuxedavad kriteriumebis mravalferovnebisa,
aRniSnuli saerTaSoriso sistemis maxasiaTeblebi SeiZleba dajgufdes
Semdegi wyvili kategoriebis mixedviT: mowesrigebuloba-mouwesrigebloba,
stabiluroba-arastabiluroba da integracia-izolacia. aRniSnuli
maxasiaTeblebi erTmaneTTan dakavSirebulni arian, magram saerTaSoriso
sistemas gansxvavebuli aspeqtebiT warmoadgenen. ganvixiloT TiToeuli
maxasiaTebeli da is argumentebi, romelTac daveyrdeniT maTi gamoyofisas.
32
mowesrigebuloba-mouwesrigebloba. aRniSnuli maxasiaTeblebis
gamoyofa efuZneba mtkicebas, rom saerTaSoriso sistemaSi gamoikveTeba
rogorc anarqiis, aseve saerTaSoriso sazogadoebisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli
tendenciebi. moviyvanoT aRniSnuli mtkicebis orive mxaris damasabuTebeli
argumentebi.
pirveli, saxelmwifoTaSoriso urTierTobebSi ar arsebobs erTiani
mmarTveli da ganmsjeli organo, an koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis globaluri
sistema, rogorc es uzrunvelyofilia calkeuli saxelmwifos farglebSi
saxelmwifo aparatis mier. amdenad, saerTaSoriso sistema anarqiuli
sistemaa, sadac dominirebs Zala da avtoriteti. meore, wesrigis da
konsensusis miRwevas saerTaSoriso sistemaSi xels uSlis is
dapirispirebac, romelic imTaviTve arsebobs status qvosa da cvlilebis
SesaZleblobas Soris. rogorc aRniSnavs devid aleni, msoflioSi
arsebobs mudmivi konfrontacia imaT Soris vinc dainteresebulia
cvlilebebi Seitanos arsebul sistemaSi da visi interesebic saukeTesod
aris daculi arsebuli mdgomareobiT (Allen, 1989, p. 81). meore mxriv, ra Tqma
unda, arsebobs rigi faqtorebisa, romlebic awesrigebs saxelmwifoTa
qcevas saerTaSoriso sistemaSi. pirvel rigSi, es aris evropuli qveynebis
mier SemuSevebuli diplomatiuri protokolis wesebi, romlebic amartivebs
dialogs sxvadasxva kulturuli tradiciebis mqone saxelmwifoebs Soris
(ibid, p. 81). meore, saxelmwifoebi ZiriTadad icaven saerTaSoriso samarTlis
ZiriTad principebsa da normebs, romlebic erTi mxriv, maT aniWebs
suverenuli Tanasworobis uflebas, xolo meore mxriv, akisrebs konkretul
valdebulebebs (aleqsiZe, 2001, gv. 26-52). mesame, globaluri masStabis
koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis sistemis ararsebobis pirobebSi, uZlieresi
saxelmwifoebi, rogorc globalur aseve regionalur doneze, mniSvnelovan
rols TamaSoben damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa sistemis warmarTvaSi
(rondeli, 1996, gv. 222). neorealizmi globalur struqturaSi wamyvan
adgils swored saxelmwifoTa aliansebs aniWebs, romelTa farglebSic
aRebuli valdebulebebis darRveva saxelmwifoebs Zvirad ujdeba (Farrands,
33
1989, p.95). meoTxe, saerTaSoriso sistemis mowesrigebulobis mniSvnelovani
faqtoria zemoaRniSnul aliansebSi gamokveTili ierarqia, romlis mTavari
ganmsazRvreli principi kvlav saxelmwifo Zlierebaa (Smith, 1989, pp. 185-212).
arsebobs Sexedulebac, romlis Tanaxmad dRevandel msoflioSi imdeni
ierarqiuli struqturaa, ramdeni saerTaSoriso sakiTxic arsebobs (Allen,
1989, p. 69). magaliTad, aSS-is saxelmwifo mdivnis moadgile politikis
sakiTxebSi piter tarnofi werda: "rodesac saqme gvaqvs aSS-sTvis
umniSvnelovanes politikur da ekonomikur sakiTxebTan, yovel mocemul
SemTxvevaSi, Cven sxvadasxva qveynebi gviWeren mxars da sxvadasxva qveynebi
gamodian Cvens winaaRmdeg" (Tarnoff, 1996, pp 5-8). mexuTe, rogorc samTavrobo,
aseve arasamTavrobo saerTaSoriso organizaciebis da transnacionaluri
kompaniebis gazrdili roli asaxavs Tanamedrove saerTaSoriso sistemis
swrafvas mowesrigebulobisken, amave dros, aRniSnuli saerTaSoriso
struqturebi qmnian e.w. `inteleqtualur infrastruqturas,~ romelic
xelmisawvdomi xdeba saerTaSoriso sistemis yvela monawilisaTvis (Farrands,
1989, p. 95). meeqvse, calkeuli saxelmwifoebi, saxelmwifoTa aliansebi da
saerTaSoriso organizaciebi Seadgenen erTian globalur struqturas,
romelic aRniSnuli komponentebiTa da maT Soris arsebuli kavSirebiT,
albaT, saerTaSoriso sistemis mowesrigebulobis mTavari ganmsazRvreli
faqtoria.
miuxedavad imisa, rom saerTaSoriso sistemis mowesrigebulobis
sasargeblo argumentebi, erTi SexedviT, ufro mravalricxovania, ver
vityodiT, rom Tanamedrove etapze, aRniSnuli wyvili maxasiaTeblebi
asimetriulia, Tumca savaraudoa, rom msoflio ganviTarebis samomavlo
tendencia, swored rom mowesrigebulobis mimarTulebiT warimarTos.
stabiluroba-arastabiluroba. mowesrigebuloba-mouwesrigeblobis
maxasiaTeblebi mWidrod ukavSirdeba saerTaSoriso sistemis stabiluroba-
arastabilurobis maxasiaTeblebs, romlebic yvelaze mkafiod realizmis
ZalTa balansis koncefciaSi gamoikveTeba. h. morgenTaus TqmiT, `ZalTa
wonasworoba da misi SenarCunebisken mimarTuli politika suverenul
34
saxelmwifoTa sazogadoebaSi aris ara mxolod gardauvali, aramed
arsebiTi mastabilizirebuli faqtori~ (Morgenthau, 1948, p. 161.). Tu ramdenad
aris ZalTa wonasworobisaken mimarTuli politika stabilizaciis faqtori
sakamaTo sakiTxia, vinaidan yovel mocemul etapze arsebuli ZalTa balansi
imTaviTve Seicavs cvlilebisa da konfrontaciis potencials. Tanamedrove
politikosebi bolo dros ukve uaryofen msoflioSi gavlenis sferoebis
danawilebisken swrafvas (solana, 1997). magram miuxedavad aRniSnuli
Tvalsazrisisa, ZalTa balansis pozicias jer kidev mniSvnelovani adgili
uWiravs rogorc literaturaSi, aseve realur saxelmwifoTaSoriso
urTierTobebSi. f. Fhartmanis TqmiT, dRevandel `decentralizebul~
saerTaSoriso sistemaSi TiToeuli saxelmwifo dgas e.w. `Zalis problemis~
winaSe, sadac Zalismieri agresia sruliad dasaSvebi movlenaa (Hartman, 1994,
p. 3).
politikuri realizmis erT-erTi warmomadgenlis r. aronis azriT,
yvelaze ufro stabiluri hegemonuri tipis saerTaSoriso sistemaa, sadac
Fhegemoni saxelmwifo urigdeba patara qveynebis arsebobas da `ar STanTqavs
maT~ (Aron, 1968, p.100,). dRevandel birTvul epoqaSi damkvidrda Sexedulebac,
rom bipolaruli sistema, misTvis damaxasiaTebeli Zlieri Sekavebis
meqanizmebiT, ufro stabiluria vidre nebismieri multipolaruli sistema.
Tumca aseve unda aRiniSnos rom Tanamedrove etapze, bipolaruli sistemis
rRvevisa da saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebis ganmtkicebasTan erTad, sul
ufro izrdeba realizmis Zalismieri logikisadmi kritikuli
damokidebuleba da swrafva erTiani, usafrTxo, egalitaruli
sivrceebisadmi.
integracia-izolacia. miuxedavad zemoxsenebuli argumentisa
saerTaSoriso monawileTa erTiani sivrcisken swrafvis Taobaze,
saerTaSoriso sistemis integracia-izolaciis maxasiaTeblebidan, dRes-
dReobiT, wina planze albaT mainc izolaciis maxasiaTebeli unda iyos
wamoweuli, vinaidan saerTaSoriso sistemis ZiriTad struqturul
elementebad kvlav suverenuli saxelmwifoebi rCeba, romlebic
35
axorcieleben individualur sagareo politikas, TavianTi erovnuli
interesebis Sesabamisad.
meore mxriv, msoflioSi sul ufro Rrmavdeba integraciuli
procesebi, romelTa ugulebelyofa SeuZlebelia. mravalganzomilebiani
ekonomikuri, politikuri, socialuri Tu ekologiuri kavSirebi aisaxa
kompleqsuri urTierTdamokidebulebis TeoriaSi (rondeli, 1996, gv. 132-141).
am Teoriis Tanaxmad, susti da Zlieri saxelmwifoebi erTnairad
monawileoben globaluri integraciis procesSi, romelSic erovnuli
usafrTxoebis cneba srulebiT axal datvirTvas iZens, xolo pirvel
planze TanamSromlobis sakiTxebi gamodis. am mimarTebiT, kompleqsuri
urTierTdamokidebulebis Teoriis umniSvnelovanesi elementia
`saerTaSoriso reJimi~, rogorc saxelmwifoTa TanamSromlobis
institucionalizebuli forma, romlis stabilurobac, Tavis mxriv, mis
monawileTa interesebis stabilurobas efuZneba (Goldstein, 2003, pp. 199-207).
ekonomikuri kavSirebis saerTaSoriso sistemaSi, rogorc cnobilia,
gamoyofen dasavleTis, Crdilo-samxreTis da aRmosavleT-dasavleTis
qvesistemebs; da Tumca TiToeuli maTgani efuZneba specifiur savaWro-
safinanso urTierTobebs, isini ar arian erTmaneTisgan izolirebulni
(rondeli, 1996, gv. 157). rogorc aRiniSneba, rac ufro didia
urTierTdamokidebuleba saerTaSoriso sistemis monawileTaA Soris, miT
ufro intensiuria maT Soris urTierTqmedebac. devid aleni saerTaSoriso
urTierTqmedebaTa sam tips gamoyofs (Allen, 1989, pp. 60-83): 1.
samTavrobaTSoriso, romelic gulisxmobs urTierTqmedebas saxelmwifoTa
mTavrobebs Soris. 2. trans-samTavrobo, sadac calkeuli samTavrobo
uwyebebi (saministroebi, departamentebi da a.S.) uSualod urTierTqmedeben
erTmaneTTan garkveuli interesebis Sesabamisad. 3. trans-nacionaluri,
sadac saerTaSoriso monawileni uSualod urTierTqmedeben rogorc
erTmaneTTan, aseve Sesabamisi saxelmwifoebis mTavrobebTan. unda iTqvas,
rom saerTaSoriso sistemis integracia-izolaciis RerZze, integraciis
procesi ar gulisxmobs saxelmwifoTa sagareo politikis SemuSavebis da
36
gatarebis gamartivebas, vinaidan komunikaciis damatebiTi arxebis warmoqmna
damatebiT sirTuleebs warmoSobs.
***********
amgvarad, migvaCnia, rom yovel konkretul SemTxvevaSi, saerTaSoriso
sistemis mdgomareoba SeiZleba daxasiaTebul iqnes im tendenciebis
mixedviT, romlebic warmoiqmneba da cvalebadobs gamoyofili wyvili
maxasiaTeblebis --mowesrigebuloba-mouwesrigeblobis, stabiluroba-
arastabilurobis da izolacia-integraciis RerZebze. Sesabamisad,
aRniSnuli maxasiaTeblebi saerTaSoriso sistemas warmoadgenen ori
ZiriTadi qvesistemis saxiT, sadac erTi qvesistema moicavs mouwesrigebel,
arastabilur da gaTiSul samyaros, xolo meore -- mowesrigebul,
stabilur, integraciul principebze agebul samyaros. bunebrivia, realur
samyaroSi, aRniSnuli qvesistemebi ar arseboben sufTa saxiT da
mniSvnelovnad faraven erTmaneTs. amave dros, aRniSnuli wyvili
maxasiaTeblebi da Sesabamisi qvesistemebi gansazRvraven mocemuli
saxelmwifos sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebasac. drois
mocemul periodSi, aRniSnuli maxasiaTeblebi ganapirobeben sagareo
politikis sistemis funqcionirebas, erTi mxriv, mouwesrigebel,
arastabilur da izolacionistur samyaroSi saxelmwifos mier Tavisi
adgilis mosapoveblad da, meore mxriv, mowesrigebul, stabilur,
integraciul samyaroSi saxelmwifos mier Tanasworuflebiani monawileobis
dasamkvidreblad.
saerTaSoriso sistemis parametrebi da cvladebi.
saerTaSoriso sistemis im faqtorebis gansazRvrisas, romlebic
sagareo sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli parametrebis da cvladebis rols
asruleben, amovdivarT Semdegi wanamZRvrebidan:
-- sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli saerTaSoriso
sistemis parametrebi warmoadgenen garkveul farTo procesebs, romlebic
drois mocemuli periodisaTvis Sinaarsobrivad gansazRvraven
saerTaSoriso sistemis gamoyofil maxasiaTeblebs. amgvari SedarebiT
37
mudmivi parametrebi gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis
zogad reJimebs imisda mixedviT Tu ramdenad uaxlovdebian isini
gamoyofili maxasiaTeblebis zRvrul mniSvnelobas.
-- cvalebadobis ufro maRali xarisxis mqone konkretuli movlenebi,
romlebic drois mocemuli periodisTvis konkretul Sinaarss aniWeben
saerTaSoriso sistemis gamoyofil parametrebs Cvens mier ganixilebian,
rogorc saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebi. TavianTi `radikalurobis~
xarisxiT, anu imis da mixedviT Tu ramdenad uaxlovdebian isini
gamoyofili parametrebis zRvrul mniSvnelobas, cvladebi zemoqmedeben da
saxes ucvlian sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebas.
-- saerTaSoriso sistemis yvela movlena ar aris erTnairad
relevanturi calkeuli saxelmwifosaTvis. saerTaSoriso sistemis
movlenebi relevanturia konkretuli saxelmwifosaTvis imdenad ramdenadac
isini ukavSirdebian aRniSnuli saxelmwifos Sida procesebs. amgvarad,
saerTaSoriso sistemis movlena iqceva mocemuli saxelmwifos sagareo
politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebul cvladad, Tuki igi relevanturia
aRniSnuli saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri TvalsazrisiTac.
-- konkretuli saxelmwifos urTierTqmedebebis ganxilvisas, rogorc
globaluri, aseve regionaluri masStabiT, mxedvelobaSi unda viqonioT is
garemoeba, rom mocemuli saxelmwifos sagareo politikis sistemis
Sesavalze arsebuli cvladebi SeiZleba icvlebodnen imisda mixedviT, Tu
danarCeni cvladebis ra kombinaciaSi iyrian isini Tavs.
1.3.3.2 Sidapolitikuri sistema
jon kenedim Tavisi prezidentobis dasawyisSi aRniSna, rom
gansxvaveba prezidentis damarcxebebs Soris qveynis saSinao Tu sagareo
saqmeebSi iseTive didia, rogorc gansxvaveba `kanonproeqtis Cavardnasa da
qveynis ganadgurebas Soris~ (Sorensen, Th., 1965, p.509). dRes, kontrasti
tradiciul SexedulebasTan, romlis Tanaxmad qveynis saSinao politika mis
sazRvrebTanave wydeba, sul ufro mkafio xdeba. davamatebdiT, rom qveynis
sagareo politikaSi, pirvel rigSi, aisaxeba urTierTqmedeba qveynis
38
Sidapolitikur sakiTxebsa da saerTaSoriso movlenebs Soris. aRniSnuli
Tvalsazrisi Cveni kvlevis erT-erT ZiriTad orientirs warmoadgens.
Cveni modelis Tanaxmad, sagareo politikis sistemis garemos
pirobiTad meore umniSvnelovanes Sres saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri
sistema warmoadgens. zeviT Cven ukve avRniSneT sagareo politikis
analizis `politologiuri~ Tvalsazrisi, romelic swavlobs sagareo
politikis Sidapolitikur determinantebs. aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisis
gaziarebiT, gamovyofT Sidapolitikuri sistemis or ZiriTad struqturas --
socialur-ekonomikur struqturas da ideologiur struqturas. TiToeul
MmaTganSi Tavis mxriv, gamovyofT rig komponentebs, romlebic
relevanturia sagareo politikis TvalsazrisiT.
saxelmwifos socialur-ekonomikuri struqtura. saxelmwifos
socialuri da ekonomikuri ganviTarebis done da stabilurobis xarisxi
uSualod aisaxeba mis sagareo politikaze. aRiarebulia, rom ekonomikurad
susti saxelmwifoebis sagareo politikaSi Warbobs usafrTxoebis
sakiTxebis prioriteti, romelTaganac gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba
usafrTxoebis ekonomikur aspeqtebs eniWebaT. aRsaniSnavia isic, rom bevri
axlad Seqmnili damoukidebeli saxelmwifosTvis, usafrTxoebis samxedro
aspeqtebia prioritetuli. viziarebT aseve edvard morsis debulebas,
romlis Tanaxmad swrafi socialur-ekonomikuri modernizaciis procesebi
ganviTarebad qveynebSi mniSvnelovan zegavlenas axdens maT sagareo
politikaze (moyvanilia: Farrands, 1994, p.90).
gamovyofT socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis sam ZiriTad
makroekonomikur komponents: ekonomikuri zrdis temps, saxelmwifo
biujetis Sesrulebis dones da savaWro balanss. aRniSnuli maCveneblebi,
iseve rogorc maTi Semadgeneli ufro viwro mniSvnelobis indikatorebi
(rogoricaa mTliani Sida produqti, samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi,
umuSevrobis done, mosaxleobis Semosavlis maCvenebeli, da sxva)
gansazRvravs saxelmwifos keTildReobis/siRaribis dones da gamoiyeneba
ekonomistebis da politikosebis mier saxelmwifos mTlian ekonomikur
39
mdgomareobaze dasakvirveblad. es komponentebi aseve pirvel rigSi
aisaxeba sagareo politikis sistemaze, im politikuri kursebis meSveobiT,
romelTac axorcielebs mTavroba qveynis ekonomikuri zrdis misaRwevad. anu
Tu amosaval postulatad miviRebT, rom saxelmwifos sagareo politika
mniSvnelovnad motivirebulia misi ekonomikuri gaZlierebiT, miviCnevT, rom
Sida debatebi ekonomikuri zrdis uzrunvelyofis kursebis irgvliv, iseve
rogorc maTi ganxorcieleba, aisaxeba qveynis sagareo politikazec, iqneba
igi dakavSirebuli sagareo daxmarebasTan, saerTaSoriso ZalisxmevaSi
monawileobasTan, Tu savaWro da usafrTxoebis TanamSromlobasTan.
saxelmwifos ideologiuri struqtura. saxelmwifos politikuri
struqtura pirvel rigSi efuZneba mis ideologias, romelsac
literaturaSi xSirad axasiaTeben, rogorc RirebulebaTa erTobliobas
sazogadoebaSi mTavrobis rolisa da miznebis Taobaze. 1 davamatebdiT
aseve, rom saxelmwifos ideologiuri struqtura motivacias uqmnis misi
sagareo politikis miznebs da gansazRvravs politikis warmatebulobis
Sefasebis kriteriumebs. ideologia ganapirobebs agreTve, Tu ramdenad
moqnilad reagirebs qveynis sagareo politika, rogorc misive sazogadoebis
Sida moTxovnebze, aseve saerTaSoriso sistemis gareSe zewolaze (Farrands,
1989, pp 84-107).
gamovyofT ideologiuri struqturis ZiriTad komponentebs,
romlebic, Cveni azriT, axasiaTeben ra mis arsebiT aspeqtebs, amave dros
uSualo zemoqmedebas axdenen demokratiuli saxelmwifos sagareo
politikis sistemaze. es komponentebia: politikuri partiebi;
sazogadoebrivi azri; masmedia; interesTa jgufebi; arasamTavrobo
organizaciebi da analitikuri centrebi; da politikuri istebliSmenti.
qvemoT Cven gavaanalizebT im paramtrebsa da cvaldebs, romlebic
axasiaTeben sakuTriv aSS-is Sidapolitikuri sistemis socialur-
ekonomikuri da ideologiuri struqturebis gamoyofil komponentebs da,
1 politikuri ideologiebis Tanamedrove mimdinareobebis Sesaxeb ix.: omar gogiaSvili, politikuri ideologiebi, Tbilisi, 2004; valerian Wania, politologiis safuZvlebi, Tbilisi, 2000
40
warmaodgenen ra aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebul
parametrebsa da cvladebs, gansazRvraven misi funqcionirebis reJimebs.
1.3.3.3 obieqti saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema da sagreo politikis orientacia
Cveni modelis Tanaxmad, sagareo politikis funqcionirebis garemos
mesame umniSvnelovanes Sres warmoadgens im `obieqti~ saxelmwifos
Sidapolitikuri sistema da sagareo politikis orientacia, romlis
mimarTac xorcieldeba Sesaswavli `subieqti~ saxelmwifos sagareo
politika. kvlevis miznebis Sesabamisad, pirvel rigSi mxedvelobaSi unda
iyos miRebuli is faqtorebi, romlebic specifiuri iqneba konkretuli
`obieqti~ saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri da saerTaSoriso
mimarTebebisaTvis.
1.3.4 garemos koncentruli modeli
amgvarad, sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis garemos
warmoavadgenT koncentruli modelis saxiT, sadac gamoyofili qvesistemebi
da maTi struqturebi Seadgenen erTmaneTis mimarT Tanmimdevrul da
urTierTSeRwevad Sreebs.
rogorc avRniSneT, koncentruli modelis, pirobiTad, yvelaze gare,
pirvel Sres warmoadgens saerTaSoriso sistema; Semdgom Sida, meore Sres -
sagareo politikis `subieqti~ saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema,
romelic, Tavis mxriv, Seicavs socialur-ekonomikuri da ideologiuri
struqturis Sreebs; xolo mesame Sres warmoadgens `obieqti~ saxelmwifo,
romelic Seicavs misi Sidapolitikuri da sagareo politikis orientaciis
Sreebs (ix. danarTi 1).
TiToeuli Sris parametrebi da cvladebi, maTi politikuri,
ekonomikuri da ideologiuri datvirTvis Sesabamisad, korelaciaSi arian
41
erTmaneTTan da gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis
zogad reJimebs.
amgvar modelze dayrdnobiT, miviCnevT, rom sagareo politikis
garkveuli sakiTxi SeiZleba wamoiWras sistemis funqcionirebis garemos
nebismier Sreze. aRniSnuli sakiTxi sistemis Sesavalze Tavdapirvelad
ganixileba, rogorc sistemis konkretuli cvladi, romelic
urTierTqmedebaSi Sedis garemos mocemuli Sreebis parametrebTan da
cvladebTan. amgvari urTierTqmedebis Sedegad aRniSnuli cvladi swored
rom yalibdeba, rogorc sagareo politikis sakiTxi, romelic Semdgom ukve
urTierTqmedebs sistemis funqcionirebis Sesabamis reJimebTan. sabolood,
mocemuli sakiTxi, gaivlis ra sistemis Sualedur -- interpretaciisa da
gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesis -- etaps, yalibdeba rogorc sistemis
gamosavalze miRebuli Sedegi (ix. danarTi 2).
42
Tavi II
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis
meqanizmi
2.1 preambula
winamdebare Tavis mizania, ganvixiloT aSS-is sagareo politikis
sistemis funqcionirebis meqanizmi Cvens mier SemoTavazebuli modelis
safuZvelze. vinaidan Cveni modeli sagareo politikis sistemas
warmoadgens dinamikaSi, mocemuli saSinao da saerTaSoriso garemos
CarCoebSi, misi ganzogadoebuli daxasiaTebis mcdelobac gulisxmobs
droisa da sivrcis faqtorebis gaTvaliswinebas, anu sistemis
funqcionirebis zogadi principebis warmoCenas garkveul istoriul-
geografiul fonze. amgvar fonad Cvens mier aRebuli iqna
Tanamedroveobis TvalsazrisiT erT-erTi yvelaze kritikuli periodi -
civi omis dasrulebidan, prezident jorj buSis administraciis
periodidan, pirveli civi omis-Semdgomi prezidentis, prezident bil
klintonis administraciis dasrulebamde, - rodesac ukve met-naklebi
simkveTriT gamoikveTa `axali msoflio wesrigis~ Semdgomi ganviTarebis
konturebi.
2.2 saerTaSoriso garemo
davaxasiaToT mocemuli periodis aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis
Sesavalze arsebuli saerTaSoriso garemos parametrebi, anu is konkretuli
procesebi, romlebic konkretul Sinaarss aniWeben garemos gamoyofil
maxasiaTeblebs, relevanturi arian aSS-is Sidapolitikuri sistemis
TvalsazrisiT da zemoqmedebas axdenen aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis
operirebaze.
Ppresisa da Tanamedrove saerTaSorso garemos analizisadmi
miZRvnili literaturis Sejereba saSualebas gvaZlevs gamovyoT xuTi
43
urTierTdamokidebuli farTo procesi, romlic axasiaTebs saerTaSoriso
garemos civi omis Semdgom periodSi. es procesebia: 1. komunizmis
damarcxeba; 2. arastabilurobis axali kerebis aRmoceneba; 3. axali
safrTxeebis ganviTareba; 4. axali ekonomikuri centrebis Seqmna; da 5.
mzardi urTierTdamokidebuleba saxelmwifoTa Soris.
aRniSnuli procesebi ganxiluli iqneba, rogorc aSS-is sagareo
politikis sistemis funqcionirebis reJimebis ganmsazRvreli zogadi
faqtorebi -- SedarebiT `mudmivi~ parametrebi, romlebic amavdroulad
Seadgenen nebismieri calke aRebuli saxelmwifos mimarT aSS-is sagareo
politikis SemuSvebis zogad konteqsts. Cven aq ar SevCerdebiT aRniSnuli
parametrebis calkeul komponentebze (konkretul movlenebze), romlebic
gansazRvraven mocemuli parametrebis Sinaarss da sistemaze zemoqmedebis
xarisxis mixedviT, SeiZleba ganixilebodnen, rogorc sistemis Sesavalze
arsebuli gansxvavebuli `intensivobis~ mqone cvladebi.
2.2.1. komunizmis damarcxeba
yofil komunistur blokSi axali tipis winaaRmdegobebis ganviTarebam
misi arastabilurobis axali SesaZleblobebi Seqmna. aRniSnuli procesi
Sesabamis asaxvas poulobs am periodis amerikul presasa da analitikur
literaturaSi, sadac yuradRebis centrSi kvlav dgas ruseTi, rogorc
didi SesaZleblobebisa da, amave dros, didi safrTxeebis matarebel qveyana.
ruseTis arastabilurobis safrTxe, amave dros, ukavSirdeba aRmosavleT
evropaSi demokratiuli gardaqmnebis Seferxebis safrTxes.
yofili komunisturi blokis potenciuri arastabilurobis swored es
procesi ganixileba Cvens mier, rogorc drois mocemuli monakveTisaTvis
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli erT-erTi
SedarebiT mudmivi parametri, romelic gansazRvravs sistemis
funqcionirebis erT-erT reJims. aRniSnuli procesi, romelsac Cven
zogadad vuwodebT komunizmis damarcxebas, saerTaSoriso garemos
ZiriTadad axasiaTebs `mouwesrigeblobis~ da `arastabilurobis~
44
maxasiaTeblebis mixedviT da ubiZgebs aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemas
imoqmedos reJimSi, romelic, reagirebs am maxasiaTeblebze (bukia, 2001, gv.
500-526).
rogoria es reJimi da rogor gansazRvravs igi sistemis gamosavalze
miRebul `deklaraciul~ da `operaciul~ Sedegebs?
analitikur literaturaSi dominirebs azri, rom civi omis periodis
naTlad gamokveTili maxasiaTeblebis gaqrobasTan erTad, irRveva mkafio
korelacia saerTaSoriso garemosa da aSS-is erovnul interesebs Soris;
amdenad, irRveva aSS-is sagareo politikis kriteriumebic. 1 Tuki
gaviTvaliswinebT im Sida winaaRmdegobebs, romlebic ganviTarda yofil
komunistur sivrceSi civi omis dasrulebis Semdeg, Cven srulad ver
gaviziarebT aRniSnul mosazrebebs. vityodiT, rom aRmosavleT-dasavleTis
Ria konfrontaciis amowurvasTan erTad, aSS-is sagareo politikis
moqmedebis areali sagrZnoblad gafarTovda da Tuki civi omis periodSi
analitikosebi kamaTobdnen aSS-is `evropuli politikis~ sxvadasxva
motivebis Taobaze, 2 SeiZleba iTqvas, rom axal etapze aRniSnuli motivebi
realurad konsolidirdeba mopovebuli gamarjvebis gasamtkiceblad; anu,
aSS kvlavac motivirebulia daicvas evropis (gafarToebulis)
usafrTxoebis interesebi, kapitalizmis fundamentaluri ekonomikuri
principebi da xeli Seuwyos TanamSromlobas saerTaSoriso mSvidobis
misaRwevad. Tumca, gafarToebul arealze am motivebiT ganpirobebuli
sagareo politikis konkretuli miznebis da amocanebis realizacia
pirdapir damokidebulebaSia aRniSnuli arealis Sida sirTuleebTan.
Sesabamisad, Cven visaubrebT aSS-is sagareo politikis miznebis da
amocanebis danawevrebasa da mravalferovnebaze, gamomdinare TviT arealis
1 magaliTad, aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisi sxvadasxva kuTxiT gaanalizebulia krebulSi U.S. Foreign Policy. The Search for a New Role, Edited by Robert J. Art and Seyom Brown, New York, 1993 . 2 amgvari motivebi erTiandeba Semdeg kategoriebSi: `tradiciuli,~ anu usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis motivebi `revizionistuli,~ anu kapitalizmis fundamentaluri principebis dacvis motivebi; da `idealisturi,~ rogorc saerTaSoriso mSvidobis da usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis motivebi.
45
problemaTa maravlferovnebidan, da ara sagareo politikis kriteriumebis
da motivebis danawevrebaze.
Cveni mosazreba emyareba Semdeg msjelobas: civi omis Semdgom
periodSi, ori sruliad gansazRvruli alternativis winaSe mdgari aSS
dainteresebulia stabilur da ekonomikurad Zlier dasavleT evropaSi,
romelic Tavisi sabazro ekonomikisa da demokratiis RirebulebebiT,
moizidavs aRmosavleT evropasa da yofil sabWoTa respublikebs. 1 amave
dros, aSS sasicocxlodaa dainteresebuli, rom ar iqnas CaTreuli im
qaosSi, romelmac, movlenaTa arasasurveli ganviTarebis SemTxvevaSi,
SesaZloa evropis mTeli kontinenti moicvas. meore mxriv, axali realiebis
pirispir, rodesac regionaluri usafrTxoebis suraTi uaRresad myife
xdeba, gafarToebul evropas kidev ufro metad esaWiroeba aSS-is
mxardaWera. amdenad SesaZlebelia mtkiceba, rom aRniSnuli parametris
sapasuxod, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJimi
momarTulia evropis gafarToebul arealze stabilurobis da
mowesrigebulobis SenarCunebisaken, sagareo politikis SedarebiT
danawevrebuli miznebisa da amocanebis Sesrulebis gziT. sistemis
gamosavalze, mocemuli reJimi gansazRvravs rogorc deklaraciuli, aseve
operaciuli donis Sedegebs, romelTa Sorisac umTavresad migvaCnia, erTi
mxriv, `nato~-s 2 da, meore mxriv, `evropaSi TanamSromlobisa da
usafrTxoebis konferenciis ~ (SemdgomSi `organizaciis~) 3 axali
politikuri misiebis ganviTareba.
1 Sesabamisi argumentacia ix.: Joseph S. Nye, Jr. What New World Order? Foreign Affairs, 1992, vol. 71, issue 2, pp. 83-96 2 1991 w. 3 oqtombers aSS-is saxelmwifo mdivanma j. beikerma da germaniis sagareo saqmeTa ministrma h. genSerma erToblivi gancxadebiT Semoitanes winadadeba ganxorcielebuliyo `nato~ -s `liazonis programis~ institucionalizacia Crdilo atlantikuri TanamSromlobis sabWos saxiT. 1991 w. noemberSi, romis samitma oficialurad daaarsa Crdilo atlantikuri TanamSromlobis sabWo, rogorc aliansis qveynebis mier partniori qveynebisaTvis usafrTxoebis sakiTxebze gamocdilebis gaziarebis forumi. 1999 w. mas Caenacvla evroatlantikuri TanamSromlobis sabWo, romelic politikisa da usafrTxoebis mraval sferos moicavs. 3 civi omis Semdeg, `euTk~ iZens misi wevri qveynebis saerTo problemebis gadaWris forumis funqcias, romlis aRsasrulebladac 1990 wlis noemberSi xeli ewereba `parizis qartias axali evropisaTvis~. am etapze `euTk~-s miznebia: gaaumjobesos Tavisi SesaZleblobebi konfliqtebis Tavidan acilebis da krizisebis marTvis mizniT; gaagrZelos muSaoba
46
2.2.2 arastabilurobis axali kerebi
mocemul periodSi, evraziis kontinentze arastabilurobis axali
kerebis warmoqmnis procesi ukavSirdeba komunizmis damarcxebis aRweril
process. yofil sabWoTa kavSirSi mwvavdeba politikuri, eTnikuri da
religiuri dapirispirebebi. SesaZloa, rom sabWoTa kavSiris daSlam,
moxsna ra evropaSi gareSe Zlieri Zalis faqtori, erTgvari katalizatoris
rolic Seasrula iugoslaviis konfliqtis ganviTarebaSi. aRmosavleT-
dasavleTis dapirispirebis dasrulebam arc israel-palestinis konfliqtis
dasrulebas Seuwyo xeli, miuxedavad imisa, rom sabWoTa kavSiris saxiT
palestinis ganmanTavisuflebel organizacias mxardaWeris mniSvnelovani
wyaro gamoecala. danarCen msoflioSi, axal `birTvul konturebs~ iZens
50-wliani pakistan-indoeTis dapirispireba, arastabiluribis axali kerebi
Cndeba afrikaSi, sul ufro mzard saerTaSoriso SeSfoTebas iwvevs
CrdiloeT koreis birTvuli ambiciebi. Cvens mizans ar warmoadgens
mocemuli periodis konfliqtebis daxasiaTeba. vityodiT mxolod, rom
meoce saukunis dasasrulisaTvis, saerTaSoriso sistemis yvelaze feTqebad
regionebSi arastabilurobis gadamwyvet faqtorebs warmoadgens
polarizebuli politikuri procesebi, ekonomikuri siduxWire, religiuri
Seuwynarebloba da mzardi terorizmi. meore mxriv, globalizaciis
procesi aseve xels uwyobs lokaluri finansuri da ekonomikuri krizisebis
TiTqmis myisier gavrcelebas. xolo globalizaciis procesis is
monawileni, romlebic wamgebian mdgomareobaSi aRmoCndebian TavianTi
geopolitikuri metoqeebis pirispir, saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebis rRvevis
axal potencials iZenen. 1
adamianis uflebebis dacvis sakiTxebze; misces wevr saxelmwifoebs Semdgomi biZgi ekonomikuri, samecniero da garemos dacvis sferoSi TanamSromlobisaTvis. 1994 w. euTk ukve `organizaciis~ statuss iZens da axali politikur impulsiT, 1999 w. stambulis samitze iRebs evropuli usafrTxoebis gafarToebul qartias. 1 globalizaciisa da arastabilurobis kavSiris Sesaxeb ix. krebuli: Facing a Changing World, Institute for National Strategic Studies, http://www.ndu.edu
47
arastabilurobis axali kerebis warmoqmnis procesi, msgavsad
komunizmis damarcxebisa, saerTaSoriso sistemas aseve axasiaTebs
`mouwesrigeblobis~ da `arastabilurobis~ gamoyofili maxasiaTeblebis
mixedviT; Tumca aRniSnuli procesis konsolidireba aSS-is sagareo
politikis sistemis Sesavalze, rogorc am sistemis funqcinirebis erT-erTi
reJimis ganmsazRvreli parametrisa, sakmaod araerTmniSnelovan
zemoqmedebas warmoqmnis.
gamovyofT aRniSnuli parametris aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemaze
zemoqmedebis or tendencias.
1. mimdinare konteqstSi, aSS-is politikuri istebliSmentisTvis
aSkaraa lokaluri konfliqtebis Sekavebis aucilebloba, maT mier ufro
farTo sistemuri xasiaTis SeZenis aRsakveTad. kerZod, sabWoTa kavSiris
daSlisTanave, aSS-is usafrTxoebis strategiis mesveurebi xazs usvamen
rogorc aSS-Si, aseve evropaSi SeiaraRebis arsebuli donis SenarCunebis
aucileblobas (Powell, 1993, p.7). regionaluri stabilurobis SenarCunebis
mizniT, aSS-is samxedro istebliSmentis farglebSi yalibdeba e.w.
`mSvidobiani monawileobis~ koncefcia, romelic sam komponents
iTvaliswinebs: aSS-is teritoriis gareT samxedro nawilebis ganlagebas;
erToblivi wrTvnis programebis ganxorcielebas; da pirdapiri samxedro
kontaqtebis ganviTarebas (Shelton, 1999). imavdroulad, aSS-is politikur da
analitikur wreebSi msjeloben axali e.w. `erTiani samxreTis strategiis~
SemuSavebis aucileblobaze, romlis veqtoric moyolebuli balkaneTidan,
moicavs axlo aRmosavleTs, sparseTis yures, da samxreT-aRmosavleT azias
(Institute for National Strategic Studies, 1999, pp. 24-30).
2. meore mxriv, aSS-is politikuri istebliSmentisTvis aseve naTelia,
rom arastabilurobis axali kerebis aRmoceneba SerCeviT reagirebas
moiTxovs. ZiriTadi kiTxva, romelic ismeba aSS-is politikur wreebSi aris
- Tu rogor unda ganisazRvros aSS-is usafrTxoebis interesebi e.w.
`periferiul~ regionebSi? (Newsom, 1999)
48
am kiTxvaze erT-erTi radikaluri pasuxis Tanaxmad, aSS-is
usafrTxoebis politika, pirvel rigSi, dasavleT naxevarsferoze unda iyos
mimarTuli, vinadan swored iq wydeba `aSS-is, rogorc eris", bedi. (Woodruff,
1993, pp.103-108) Tumca, romc movwydeT am erTob calmxriv Tvalsazriss,
Sesabamisi gancxadebebis analizi saSualebas gvaZlevs gamovyoT msjelobis
Semdegi ZiriTadi xazi: lokaluri Tu regionaluri konfliqtebis
daregulirebis mcdelobisas, aSS-ma ar unda ikisros calmxrivi
valdebulebebi. Amave dros, amgvari gancxadebebis simravle saSualebas
gvaZlevs davaskvnaT, rom sakuTriv aSS-is erTpirovnuli monawileoba
arastabilurobis axali kerebis aRmosafxvrelad politikuri
istebliSmentisTvis naklebad aris misaRebi.
miuxedavad aRniSnuli ori tendenciis winaaRmdegobrivi xasiaTisa,
migvaCnia, rom aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze gamoyofili
parametri gansazRvravs sistemis operirebis sakmaod mkafio reJims,
romelic mimarTulia mokavSireTa Ziebasa da maTi erToblivi Zalisxmevis
koordinirebaze usafrTxoebis saerTo amocanebis gadasaWrelad (Nye, 1998).
Tuki movaxdenT SeiaraRebis kontrolisa da saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebis
sakiTxebSi saxelmwifo mdivnis imJamindeli moadgilis jon holumis
citirebas, `aSS mzad unda iyos erTpirovnuli qmedebebisTvis, magram
amavdroulad, rudunebiT unda muSaobdes kaoliciebis Seqmnisa da
ganmtkicebisaTvis~ (Holum, 1998).
2.2.3 axali safrTxeebis ganviTareba
axali safrTxeebis ganviTareba, rogorc Tanamedrove saerTaSoriso
garemos ganviTarebis Tanamavali procesi, marginalur fundamentalistur
saxelmwifoTa agresiis zrdis kvaldakval, mzardi intensivobiT xasiaTdeba.
axal safrTxeTa Soris ori ZiriTadi mimarTuleba moiazreba. pirvel
farTo mimarTulebas warmoadgens masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis
gavrceleba, sadac, Tavis mxriv, gamoiyofa: a) birTvuli iaraRis saxelmwifo
kontrolidan gadena; b) marginalur saxelmwifoTa mier birTvuli iaraRis
49
ganviTareba; g) biologiuri da qimiuri iaraRis ganviTareba. meore farTo
mimarTulebas warmoadgens terorizmis gavrceleba. ukve Cvens mier
ganxilul periodSi, gamoikveTeba terorizmis axali tipi, romelic miznad
isaxavs misTvis `borotebad~ gacxadebuli demokratiis simboloebis
ganadgurebas. aRniSnuli procesi ukavSirdeba zemoT aRweril or process,
gansakuTrebiT ki komunizmis damarcxebas, ramac birTvuli iaraRis
gadinebis uprecendento saSiSroeba Seqmna. migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli
procesi saerTaSoriso garemos axasiaTebs ara mxolod, da ara imdenad,
`mouwesrigeblobisa~ da `arastabilurobis~ mimarTulebiT, ramdenadac
`integracia-izolaciis~ wyvili maxasiaTeblis RerZze, integraciis
mimarTulebiT, Tumca, ra Tqma unda, igi am maxasiaTeblis negatiur
gamovlinebas warmoadgens. jozef nais mier SemoTavazebuli msoflioSi
Zalauflebis ganawilebis samganzomilebiani modelis analogiiT,
mkvlevarTa da politikosTa umravlesoba axali safrTxeebis warmoqmnis
tendencias ganixilavs trans-nacionaluri urTierTqmedebis doneze, sadac
Sesabamisi `tranzaqciebi~ iolad xorcieldeba mTavrobaTa kompetenciis
miRma (Nye, 1998). Tumca, rogorc yvelaze arasasurveli scenari, ar
gamoiricxeba agresor saxelmwifoTa koaliciebis Seqmnac.
aRniSnuli procesi, rogorc sagareo sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli
SedarebiT mudmivi parametri, gansazRvarvs aSS-is sagareo sistemis
funqcionirebis reJims, romelic, Cveni azriT, oTx ZiriTad mimarTulebazea
orientirebuli. es mimarTulebebia:
1. SeiaraRebis gauvrceleblobis saerTaSoriso reJimis xelSewyoba; 2.
regionaluri usafrTxoebis gaZliereba; 3. marginalur saxelmwifoTa
mimarT sanqciebis ganxorcieleba; 4. aSS-is sakuTari Tavdacvisunarianobis
gaZliereba. 1
1 aRniSnuli mimarTulebebis gamoyofa ganxorcielda Semdeg wyaroebze dayrdnobiT: Holum, John D. (Acting Under Secretary of Sate for Arms Control and International Security Affairs), "New Security Threats: The U.S. Response," U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changing World, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 3, No.3, July 1998; Fact Sheet: Combating Terrorism (Presidential Decision Directive 62), White House, May 22, 1998 ; Mann, Paul, "Pentagon Called Unprepared for 'Post-Modern' Conflict," Aviation Week and Space Technology, Vol. 148, No. 17, April 27, 1998, pp. 54-56;
50
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sedegebis rogorc `deklaraciul,~
aseve `operaciul~ doneze, aRiSnuli reJimi Sesabamisad gulisxmobs: --
SeiaraRebis kontrolis saerTaSoriso SeTanxmebebSi (rogoricaa,
`birTvuli gauvrceleblobis xelSekruleba,~ `qimiuri iaraRis konvencia,~
`biologiuri iaraRis konvencia,~ `birTvuli masalebis fizikuri dacvis
konvencia~) monawileobas; -- diplomatiuri da usafrTxoebis zomebis
kombinirebas mocemul regionebSi masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis
gavrcelebis aRsakveTad (am zomebs Soris TvalsaCino adgili uWiravs `nan-
lugaris safrTxis Semcirebis erTobliv programas~); -- marginalur
saxelmwifoTa (erayis, libiis, sudanis) politikuri da ekonomikuri dasjis
zomebs; -- axlad damoukidebel saxelmwifoebTan TanamSromlobas, maTi
saerTaSoriso struqturebSi CarTvisa da ormxrivi TanamSromlobis
formatiT (National Security Strategy, White House, 1999).
marTalia, aRniSnuli reJimi gansxvavebul parametrs eyrdnoba, igi
exmianeba aRweril wina or reJims, rogorc evropis gazrdil arealze
stabilurobis SenarCunebasTan mimarTebaSi, aseve mokavSireTa aliansebis
ZiebasTan mimarTebaSi. amave dros, aRniSnuli samive parametri -- yofil
komunistur banakSi axali problemebis ganviTareba; arastabilurobis axali
kerebis ganviTareba; da axali safrTxeebis warmoSoba -- aSS-is sagareo
politikis sitemas aniWebs operirebis kidev erT umniSvnelovanes reJims,
romelic uSualod ukavSirdeba aSS-is sakuTari usafrTxoebis
uzrunvelyofas: globaluri masStabiT, demokratiis ganviTarebis
Cohen, William S. (Secretary of Defense) , "Creating an Environment for Peace, Stability, Confidence," U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, Preventing Conflict: Military Engagement in Peacetime, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No. 3, December 1999; Holum, John D., (Senior Advisor to the Secretary of state for Arms Control and International Security) "The Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Challenges and Responses," U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, Responding to the Challenge of Proliferation, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2, September 1999; Berger, Samuel R., (National Security Advisor to President Clinton), "Strengthening Non-proliferation: Essential to Global Security," U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, Responding to the Challenge of Proliferation, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2, September 1999; Lugar, Richard (Senior Republican Member of the Senate Foreign Relations and Intelligence Committees and Chairman of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee), "Nunn-Lugar: An Impressive Record on Soviet-Nuclear Arms Dismantlement," U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, Responding to the Challenge of Proliferation, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2, September 1999
51
xelSewyobas. Tavisi aspeqtebiT (da sistemis gamosavalze Sesabamisi
SedegebiT) aRniSnuli reJimi, albaT yvelaze ufro farToa da moicavs iseT
mimarTulebebs, rogoricaa: adamianis uflebebis dacva; damoukidebeli
mediis ganviTareba; samoqalaqo sazogadoebis, kanonis uzenaesobis da
damoukidebeli sasamarTlo sistemis ganviTareba; saxelisuflo
struqturebSi korufciasTan brZola da sxva.
2.2..4 axali ekonomikuri centrebis Seqmna
mocemuli periodis ekonomikuri Sefasebebi eWvqveS ayeneben aSS-is
erTpirovnuli ekonomikuri liderobis perspeqtivas. amave dros, Tu civi
omis periodSi dasavleT evropa warmoadgenda erTgvar `mSvidobis zonas,~
sadac nebismieri winaaRmdegoba, komerciuli winaaRmdegobebis CaTvliT,
aucileblad daZleuli unda yofiliyo (McArdle, 1993, pp.270-288), civi omis
Semdgom periodSi, usafrTxoebis saerTo interesebis SedarebiT
SesustebasTan erTad, warmoiqmna trans-atlantikuri komerciuli qiSpobis
ganviTarebis pirobebic. 1 amave dros, amerikul Sida bazarze iaponuri
saqonlis `agresiuli~ SemoWris kvaldakval, aSS-s winaaRmdegobrivi
urTierTobebi uyalibdeba CineTTanac, romelic ekonomikis zrdis tempiT
saerTaSoriso arenaze TandaTanobiT wina planze gamodis (The Economist, May
20, 2000, pp.21-22). Zalas ikrebs `merkosuri~ 2 da `aseanic.~ 1
migvaCnia, rom axali ekonomikuri centrebis ganviTarebis tendencia
saerTaSoriso sistemas axasiaTebs `inetgraciisa~ da `arastabilurobis~
maxasiaTeblebis sakmaod myife balansis mdgomareobiT, sadac saerTaSoriso
vaWrobisa da ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis integraciul procesebs gaaCniaT
1 evrokavSiris akrZalva amerikuli xorcis importze, an kvotebis daweseba samxreT amerikuli bananis importze, iseve rogorc Tavis mxriv, aSS-is sapasuxo `damsjeli~ satarifo zomebi evropul importze, zemoTmoyvanili msjelobis ilustracias warmoadgens. 2 `merkosuri~ (MERCOSUR) -- `samxreTis saerTo bazari~ Seiqmna argentinis, braziliis, paragvais da urugvais mier 1991 w. SeqmnisTanave `merkosurs~ mxars uWerda `evrokomisia~ da `evrokavSiri.~
52
moTamaSeTa dapirispirebis sakmaod Zlieri potencialic. ukve 1980-ian
wlebSi vaSingtoni miuTiTebs, rom evropis erTiani bazris Seqmna, romelic
`evropas evropisTvis Semofarglavs,~ SeiZleba saziano iyos rogorc
evropisTvis, aseve aSS-sTvis da mTliani globaluri ekonomikuri
sistemisaTvis (Lundestad, 1997, p.209). 1990-iani wlebis meore naxevris
literaturaSi musirebs azric, rom `ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da
ganviTarebis organizaciis~ (OECD) wevr qveynebs Soris imdenad mwvavdeba
ekonomikuri winaaRmdegobebi, rom maTi tradiciulad SemakavSirebeli
saerTo Rirebulebebi ukana planze ixevs.
axali ekonomikuri centrebis ganviTarebis process da mis Tanamaval
e.w. `konkurentuli TanamSromlobis~ tendencias Cven ganvixilavT, rogorc
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebul parametrs, Tavisi
Sesabamisi `radikaluri~ Tu `liberaluri~ zemoqmedebis cvladebiT.
aRniSnuli parametri aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis
reJims sakmaod calsaxad gansazRvravs; kerZod, sagareo politikis wina
planze gamodis ekonomikuri sakiTxebi (rac, Tavis mxriv, kidev ufro
amwvavebs konkurencias axal ekonomikur moTamaSeebTan).
sistemis gamosavalze arsebul `deklaraciul~ da `operaciul~
doneebze, aRniSnuli reJimi gulisxmobs ufro `agresiuli~ sagareo
ekonomikuri politikis gatarebas da sazRvargareT amerikuli biznesis
lobirebas. kerZod, 21-e saukunisaTvis dasaxuli aSS-is erovnuli
usafrTxoebis strategiis erT-erT umTavres komponents warmaodgens
amerikis ekonomikuri konkurentunarianobis gaZliereba, romelic, Tavis
mxriv, moicavs: aSS-is teqnologiuri upiratesobebis SenarCunebas;
mTavrobisa da kerZo seqtoris mier erToblivi saeqsporto strategiis
SemuSavebas; maRalteqnologiuri produqciis eqsportis politikis
gamkacrebas (National Security Strategy for a New Century, 1999).
1 `aseani~ (ASEAN) -- samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis qveynebis asociacia Seiqmna 1967 w., Tavdapirvelad xuTi wevri saxelmwifos mier. `aseanis~ regionis mosaxleoba Seadgens 500 milions, xolo misi erToblivi mTliani Sida porduqti Seadgens 737 miliard dolars.
53
konkurentunarianobis gaZlierebis konkretul saSualebebs
warmoadgens: e.w. `konkurenciis xelSewyobis~ politika da misi Semadgeneli
antimonopolisturi praqtikis uzrunvelyofis meqanizmebi; `msoflio
savaWro organizaciis~ cirkularebi, romlebic gansazRvarvs sanqciebs
arasamarTliani savaWro praqtikiT dakavebuli mxareebisadmi; da sagareo
daxmareba, romlis udidesi nawili kvlav amerikuli saqonlis da
momsaxurebis Sesyidvas xmardeba. 1
2.2.5 saxelmwifoebs Soris mzardi urTierT-damokidebuleba
saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis procesi Tavisi
arsiT axlos dgas axali ekonomikuri centrebis warmoqmnis procesTan,
Tumca aq wina planze gamodis integraciuli aspeqtebi, romlebic moicavs
ra saxelmwifoTa savaWro -ekonomikur urTierTobebs, aseve asaxeba maT
politikur urTierTqmedebaze. am TvalsazrisiT, pirvel rigSi
gamoikveTeba evropis integraciuli procesebi, romlebic Rrmavdeba ra
swored 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisidan, saukunis bolosaTvis ukve
warimarTeba `evropis erTiani ekonomikuri mTavrobis,~ `evropis federaciis~
da `evropis konstituciis~ misaRwevad (The Economist, May, 2000, pp.22).
aRniSnuli parametri, saerTaSoriso garemos ganviTarebas axasiaTebs
`mowesrigebulobis,~ `stabilurobis,~ da `integraciis~ maxasiaTeblebis
mimarTulebiT, Tumca misi zemoqmedeba aSS-is saagreo politikis sistemis
1 aRniSnuli saSualebebis gamoyofa ganxorcielda Semdeg wyaroebze dayrdnobiT: Tritell Randolph (Assistant Director for International Antitrust Bureau of Competition, Federal Trade Commission Byline), "The Application of U.S. Antitrust Laws to Foreign Conduct: Recent Developments", USIA, Economic Perspectives, February 1999. http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/ Lang, Jeffrey, Partner Wilmer, Cutler and Pickering, " International Trade Domestic Regulation, and Competition Policy," ibid; Stern, Paula (President, The Stern Group, Inc.), Working Toward New U.S. Competition Policy Related To Trade," ibid; Klein, Joel ( Assistant Attorney General, Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of Justice), Expansion of International Cooperation Against Anti-Competitive Behavior," ibid. Barry, Tom and Jason Oringer, "Foreign Aid," Foreign Policy in Focus, Volume 2, Number 24, January 1997, http://www.fpif.org/
54
operirebis reJimze winaaRmdegobrivia da ar gulisxmobs mis upirobo
mxardaWeras.
gamovyofT or aspeqts, romelic aRniSnuli parametris sapasuxod,
axasiaTebs aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis reJims: 1.
swrafva wamyvani rolisaken globaluri institucionaluri mmarTvelobis
ganxorcielebaSi; 2. sakuTari erovnuli interesebis dacva. pirveli
aspeqti -- globaluri institucionaluri mmarTvelobis ganxorcieleba,
pirvel rigSi, gulisxmobs aSS-is liderobas koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis da
demkratiuli sazogadoebis saerTaSoriso normebis uzrunvelyofis
sakiTxebSi. am mimarTebiT, sistemis gamosaval etapze, aSS-is sagareo
politikis ganxorcielebis erT-erT yvelaze efeqtur saSualebas
warmoadgens aSS-is monawileoba gaeroSi - struqturaSi, romelSic
ganxorcieleba hpova vilsoniseuli msoflio mTavrobis ideam.
aRniSnuli mtkiceba ar aris erTmniSvnelovnad gaziarebuli aSS-is
analitikur Tu politikur wreebSi. kerZod, aSS-sa da gaeros
urTierTqmedebis sakiTxebze SesaZlebelia analizis sami mimarTulebis
gamoyofa, sadac: pirveli mimarTulebis farglebSi gamoiTqmis SeSfoTeba
gaerosadmi aSS-is daqvemdebarebis Taobaze (Rieff, 1999); meore mimarTuleba
gaeros ganixilavs, rogorc aSS-is sagareo politikis instruments,
romelsac igi moxerxebulad iyenebs Tavisi miznebis misaRwevad (Bennis,2000);
xolo mesame mimarTuleba miuTiTebs konceptualur Seusabamobaze TviT
gaeros institutsa da amerikul Rirebulebebs Soris, romlebic TiTqosda
saerTod eWvqveS ayeneben raime `zemTavrobis~ arsebobis mizanSewonilobas
(Belton, 1997).
mocemul periodSi aSS-is sagareo politikuri kursis analizi
gaerosTan mimarTbeSi, rogorc deklaraciul, aseve operaciul donebze
(TviT gaeros reorganizaciis mcdelobaTa CaTvliT), saSualebas gvaZlevs
vamtkicoT, rom gaero kvlavac warmoadgens aSS-is sagareo politikis
gatarebis mniSvnelovan saSulebas, romelic kerZod mimarTulia aSS-is
55
institucionaluri globaluri mmarTvelobis ganxorcielebis
xelSewyobaze. 1
meore aspeqti - aSS-is sakuTari interesebis uzrunvelyofa - Cvens
mier, pirvel rigSi, ganixileba `evropis kavSirTan~ mimarTebaSi. rogorc
aRiniSneba amerikul analitikur literaturasa da politikur gamosvlebSi,
aSS tradiciulad mxars uWers evropis integracias, rogorc regionis
keTildReobisa da usafrTxoebis aucilebel pirobas. magram, Tuki
daveyrdnobiT zemoT ganxilul Tezas `evropis kavSirTan~, rogorc
damoukidebel moTamaSesTan, konkurenciis gamwvavebis Taobaze, unda
miviRoT is garemoebac, rom mocemul periodSi, aSS-is interesebSia
evropuli integracia moaqcios usafrTxoebisa da ekonomikuri
TanamSromlobis CarCoebSi, rac amavdroulad uzrunvelyofs sakuTriv aSS-
is interesebis ganxorcielebas. usafrTxoebis sferoSi, aRniSnuli pozicia,
pirvel rigSi, gulisxmobs evropaSi `nato~-s SenarCunebas, xolo
ekonomikur sferoSi, - evropis kavSiris `efeqtis~ Sesustebas saerTaSoriso
vaWrobis liberalizaciis gziT.
komunizmis damarcxebis parametrTan mimarTebaSi, Cven ukve gavusviT
xazi `nato~-s axal ganzomilebas- evropis transformaciisa da
stabilizaciis xelSewyobas. aSS-is mier aRniSnuli ganzomilebis
ganviTareba, amave dros, emsaxureba zemoT xsenebul institucionaluri
globaluri mmarTvelobis ganxorcielebis mizansac. xolo aq moyvanili
ganzomileba - evropuli integraciis moqceva erTian usafrTxoebis
CarCoebSi aSS-is interesebis uzrunvelsayofad - aramc Tu gamoricxavs,
1 aRniSnuli mtkiceba efuZneba Semdeg wyaroebs: Fact Sheet: United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (Includes State Department Data on U.S. Contributions); U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, The United States and the United Nations, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 2, No. 2, May 1997 Fact Sheet: United Nations Humanitarian Activities (Includes White House Data on U.S. contributions); U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, The United States and the United Nations, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 2, No. 2, May 1997 How U.S. Lawmakers View the United Nations; Statements by Members of Congress; U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, The United States and the United Nations, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 2, No. 2, May 1997 Albright, Madeleine, " The U.N, the U.S., and the World," Congressional Digest, vol. 76, no. 1, January 199, pp. 14-15 Council on Foreign Relations, "American National Interest and the United Nations," New York, NY: The Council, 1996 Birenbaum, David (Former U.S. Representative to the United Nations), "Keeping America's Commitment to the United Nations," U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, The United States and the United Nations, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 2, No. 2, May 1997
56
aramed piriqiT, avsebs kidevac pirvels, miuxedavad imisa, rom xSirad isini
erTmaneTTan SepirispirebiT ganixilebian.
saerTaSoriso vaWrobis liberalizacia, `nato~-s misiis axali
datvirTvis msgavsad, ormag mizans emsaxureba. pirveli aris globaluri
masStabis mizani -- globalizaciis procesSi CarTul saxelmwifoTa
ekonomikuri keTildReobis amaRlebis xelSewyoba, rac Tavis mxriv
gulisxmobs aSS-is mier institucionalur globalur mmarTvelobaSi, am
SemTxvevaSi ekonomikur mmarTvelobaSi, wamyvani rolis damkvidrebas; xolo
meore mizania -- aSS-is interesebis uzrunvelyofa axali ekonomikuri
sivrceebis (pirvel rigSi, `evropis kavSiris~) gafarToebis konteqstSi.
aRniSnuli ormagi mizani Tavdapirvelad xorcieldeba arsebuli GATT
SeTanxmebis, xolo Semdgom, misi memkvidre WTO -s meSveobiT. aSS-is
liderebis gancxadebebis ZiriTadi masa fokusirebulia swored pirvel,
globalur mizanze, romelic, Tavis mxriv, gulisxmobs bazrebis gaxsnas,
axali samuSao adgilebis Seqmnas da garemos dacvis gaumjobesebas. meore
mizani -- aSS-is rolis da interesebis uzrunvelyofa -- ZiriTadad efuZneba
saerTaSoriso vaWrobis garkveuli normebisa da regulaciebis CarCoebSi
moqcevas, monawile mxareTaTvis Tanabari pirobebis Seqmnis konteqstSi. 1
gvinda xazi gavusvaT, rom am SemTxvevaSic, saerTaSoriso vaWrobis
liberalizaciis ori mizani ar gamoricxavs erTmaneTs.
amgvarad, saxelmwifoTa mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis parametris
sapasuxod, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistema operirebs reJimSi, romelic
Sesabamisi saSualebebis meSveobiT, mimarTulia rogorc globaluri
masStabis usafrTxoebis da ekonomikuri keTildReobis misaRwevad, aseve
1 aRniSnuli msjeloba efuZneba Semdeg wyaroebs: President Clinton on Globalization and World Trade, (excerpts from address to the World Economic Forum), Economic Perspectives, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol.5, No.1, February 2000, http://usinfo.state.gov/journals Aron, David (Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade), "Keeping Market Access on Track, " Economic Perspectives, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol.5, No.1, February 2000, http://usinfo.state.gov/journals Baucus, Max (U.S. Senator from Montana), "Seattle Does not Mean an End to Progress", Economic Perspectives, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol.5, No.1, February 2000, http://usinfo.state.gov/journals
57
sakuTriv aSS-is usafrTxoebis da ekonomikuri keTildReobis interesebis
dasacavad.
*****
daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saerTaSoriso garemos aRniSnuli
xuTi ZiriTadi procesi da maTi Tanamavali movlenebi, romlebic Cvens mier,
Sesabamisad, ganixilebian, rogorc aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis
Sesavalze arsebuli SedarebiT `mudmivi~ parametrebi da konkretuli
cvladebi, gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis zogad
erTian reJims, romelSic gamovyofdiT or urTierTSeRwevad dones:
globalur dones da erovnul dones. globalur doneze, sistemis mizania
saerTaSoriso garemos usafrTxoebis, politikuri stabilurobis da
ekonomikuri keTildReobis uzrunvelyofa; erovnul doneze, sistemis
mizania sakuTriv aSS-is erovnuli usafrTxoebis, politikuri
stabilurobis da ekonomikuri keTildReobis uzrunvelyofa. rogorc
avRniSneT, mocemuli doneebi urTierTSeRwevadia, anu sistemis warmateba
erT doneze ganapirobebs mis warmatebas meore doneze.
bunebrivia, sistemis gamosavalze Zevs amgvari ormagi miznis miRwevis
konkretuli saSualebebi, romlebic, Tavis mxriv, SeiZleba ganekuTvnebodnen
rogorc `deklaraciul,~ aseve `operaciul~ SedegTa dones. Tumca amgvar
SedegTa simravles aerTianebs erTi saerTo veqtori -- politikuri,
usafrTxoebis da ekonomikuri profilis mravalmxrivi saerTaSoriso
struqturebis, rogorc dasaxuli miznebis ganxorcielebis yvelaze
efeqturi instrumentebis, gamoyeneba.
Semdgomi Tavis mizania mocemuli periodisTvis, aSS-is sagareo
politikis sistemis operirebis garemos meore Sris - Sidapolitikuri
garemos daxasiaTeba da im SedarebiT `mudmivi~ parametrebis gamoyofa,
romlebic sistemis Sesaval etapze gansazRvraven misi operiebis zogad
reJimebs. Cvens mizans aseve warmoadgens ganvsazRvroT, Tu ra korelacia
arsebobs saerTaSoriso da Sida garemos aRweril parametrebs Soris.
58
2.3 aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemo
rogorc avRniSneT, Cvens mier gamoyofilia saxelmwifos
Sidapolitikuri garemos, rogorc saxelmwifos sagareo politikis sistemis
funqcionirebis garemos erT-erTi qvesistemis, ori ZiriTadi struqtura:
socialur-ekonomikuri da ideologiuri struqtura. aRniSnuli
struqturebi da maTi Semadgeneli komponentebi, Cveni kvlevis miznebis
Sesabamisad, saSualebas gvaZlevs gamovyoT mocemuli periodisaTvis aSS-is
Sidapolitikuri garemos ZiriTadi procesebi da am procesebis Semadgeneli
movlenebi, rogorc aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli
SedarebiT mudmivi parametrebi da maTi Semadgeneli konkretuli cvladebi.
2.3.1 socialur-ekonomikuri struqtura.
socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis gamoyofili parametrebi asaxavs im
ZiriTad procesebs, romlebic ukavSirdebian socialur -ekonomikuri
struqturis zemoaRniSnul sam ZiriTad makroekonomikur komponents--
ekonomikis zrdis temps, biujetis Sesrulebis dones da savaWro balanss.
migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli procesebi yvelaze mkafiod gansazRvravs
saxelmwifo politikas, romelic Tanamedrove amerikuli sabazro
ekonomikis pirobebSi wamyvan rols TamaSobs socialur-ekonomikuri
prioritetebis formirebaSi. 1 Tavis mxriv, socialur-ekonomikuri
procesebis asaxva sagareo politikaze swored rom saxelmwifos
ekonomikuri marTvis funqciiT aris gaSualebuli.
1989-2000 wlebis periodi literaturaSi ZiriTad daxasiaTebulia,
rogorc ekonomikuri zrdis periodi, romelic mimdinareobs saxelmwifos
mkacri fiskaluri politikis fonze (Cegzy^ 2001^ cnh&12). miuxedavad amgvari
saerTo suraTisa, mocemul periodSi, arsebuli socialur-ekonomikuri
realobis gaTvaliswinebiT, Cven gamovyofT or -- 1989-1995 da 1995-2000
1 magaliTad, 1920-iani wlebis bolosa da 30 wlebis dasawyisis ekonomikuri krizisis periodSi, aSS-is mTavrobis socialur-ekonomikuri politikis analizi ix. naSromSi:
Rfxfhfdf D&D& Cjwbfkmyj-"rjyjvbxtcrfz Gjkbnbrf U&Uedthf^ 1929-1933 uu& Rfyl& Lbccthnfwbz^ Vjcrdf^ 1980
59
wlebis -- periods, romelic ekonomikuri zrdis, biujetis Sesrulebis da
savaWro balansis gansxvavebuli tendenciebiT xasiaTdeba.
2.3.1.1 ekonomikuri zrdis tempi
1990 wlisTvis aSS-is realuri ekonomikuri zrdis tempi wliurad
Seadgenda 1.7%-s da mocemuli maCvenebliT aSS CamorCeboda danarCen
mowinave industriul saxelmwifoebs (World Bank Report, 1992, p. 219). arsebobs
saerTo azri imis Taobaze, rom ekonomikuri zrdis tempis Semcireba aSS-is
ekonomikis mwarmoeblurobis dacemis Sedegia. mTlianad, 1989-1995 wlebis
periodSi mwarmoeblurobis saSualo wliuri zrda 1%-is irgvliv meryeobs.
mocemuli periodis ekonomikuri zrdis SedarebiT dabali tempi, pirvel
rigSi, ukavSirdeba 1990-1991 wlebis recesias, xolo garkveuli aRmasvla 1992
wlidan, ufro metad recesiasTan mimarTebiT SedarebiTi gaumjobesebis
xasiaTs atarebs. 1 mwarmoeblurobis dacema, Tavis mxriv, ukavSirdeba iseT
socialur-ekonomikur cvladebs, rogoricaa Semosavlebis Semcireba,
umuSevrobis zrda, sawarmoebis gakotreba da sxva (Bureau of Economic Analysis,
2002).
1989-1995 wlebis periodis ekonomikuri zrdis SedarebiT neli tempi
Cvens mier ganixileba, rogorc aSS sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze
arsebuli garemos parametri. aRniSnuli parametri, Tavis mxriv, iwvevs
iseT mizanmimarTul makroekonomikuli cvladebis amoqmedebas, romlebic
mimarTulia aRniSnuli tendenciis Secvlaze. maT Soris ZiriTadia
saxelmwifos, rogorc ekonomiuri politikis gamtareblis, orientacia: --
kapitalis 2 sawarmoo resursebis akumulirebaze; -- saxelmwifo danazogis
gazrdaze; -- Sida da ucxouri pirdapiri da portfeluri investiciebis
ganviTarebaze da sxva. aRniSnul makroekonomikur cvladebs Cven
ganvixilavT, rogorc sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebul
cvladebsac. Cven ar ganvixilavT TiToeuli am cvladis uSualo
1 TviT recesiis periodi, romelsac bevri sparseTis yuris oms ukavSirebs, xasiaTdeba mTliani Sida produqtis zrdis klebiT 1.8%-dan 0.5%-mde. 2 pirvel rigSi, igulisxmeba fizikuri kapitali.
60
zemoqmedebas sagareo poltikis sistemaze, magram avRniSnavT, rom maTi
erToblivi zemoqmedeba swored rom gansazRvravs aRniSnuli parametris
erTian zemoqmedebas sistemis operirebis reJimze.
SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom aRniSnuli parametri, romelic
moiTxovs qveynis ekonomikuri resursebis maqsimalur mobilizacias, amave
dros ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJims, romelic
gulisxmobs: 1. naklebad eqspansiur sagareo politikas da 2. sagareo
politikis ekonomikuri aspeqtebis wamowevas.
1990-iani wlebis meore naxevari ganuxreli ekonomikuri zrdis
periodia, rodesac mSp-s procentuli maCvenebeli izrdeba 2.7%-dan 1995
wels, 4.1%-mde 2000 wels, xolo mwarmoeblurobis saSualo wliuro zrda
3%-is irgvliv meryeobs. 1995-2000 wlebSi ekonomikuri zrdis SedarebiT
maRali tempi da stabiluri xasiaTi Cvens mier ganixileba rogorc sgareo
politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli parametri, romelic gansazRvarvs
sistemis operirebis Sesabamis reJims. aRniSnuli parametri, Tavis mxriv,
iwvevs makroekonomikuli cvladebis amoqmedebas, romlebic mimarTulia
aRmavali ekonomikuri ciklis `Serbilebaze~, ekonomikis e.w. `gadaxurebis~
Tavidan asacileblad. es cvladebi, pirvel rigSi, gulisxmobs: 1. warmoebis
faqtorebis intensiur ganviTarebas (SeadrebiT eqstensiur ganviTrebasTan);
da 2. mastabilizirebeli fulad-sakredito politikis gatarebas. miviCnevT,
rom am cvladebis erToblivi zemoqmedeba sagareo politikis sistemaze
swored rom gansazRvravs aRniSnuli parametris -- ekonomiuri zrdis
maRali tempis -- erTian zemoqmedebas sistemis operirebis reJimze.
migvaCnia, rom miuxedavad erTi SexedviT arsebuli winaaRmdegobisa,
mocemuli parametris sapasuxod, sagareo sistemis operirebis reJimi aseve
iTvaliswinebs: 1. naklebad eqspansiur sagareo politikas. 2. sagareo
politikis ekonomikur aspeqtebze fokusirebas.
2.3.1.2 biujetis Sesruleba
61
1989-1995 wlebSi ekonomikuri zrdis SedarebiT dabali tempisa da
orwliani recesiis paralelurad, mimdinareobs meore procesi - biujetis
deficitis ganviTareba da, Sesabamisad, saxelmwifo valis zrda.
rogorc cnobilia, saxelmwifo biujetis deficiti uaryofiT
saxelmwifo danazogs 1 asaxavs da Sesabamisad amcirebs sasesxo kapitalis
miwodebas, zrdis sargeblis ganakveTs da amcirebs investiciebis
moculobas. amave dros, aSS-is Ria ekonomikaSi sasesxo kapitalis
miwodebis SemcirebasTan erTad mcirdeba wminda ucxouri investiciebi, 2
rac Tavis mxriv, gulisxmobs realuri savaluto kursis zrdas, amerikuli
saqonlis gaZvirebas da eqsportis Semcirebas. sabiujeto deficiti iwvevs
savaWro deficitis zrdas, rasac ekonomistebi `tyup deficitsac~ uwodeben.
aRniSnul movlenebs Cven ganvixilavT, rogorc aSS sagareo politikis
sistemis Sesavalze arsebul cvladebs, romlebic intensivobis xarisxis
mixedviT Sesabamis zemoqmedebas axdenen sistemaze; aRniSnuli cvladebis
zemoqmedebis erTobliobas ganvixilavT, rogorc erTiani, SedarebiT
mudmivi parametris-- sabiujeto deficitis--zemoqmedebas sagareo politikis
sistemaze. sabiujeto deficitis parametris sapasuxod, romelic Sida
politikur doneze saxelmwifosgan moiTxovs mkacri fiskaluri politikis
gatarebas, sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJimi aseve gulisxmobs:
1. naklebad eqspansiur sagareo politikas; 2. sagareo politikis ekonomikur
aspeqtebze fokusirebas.
aTwleulis meore naxevridan, ekonomikuri zrda aisaxeba biujetis
deficitis Semcirebaze. Tu 1996 wels biujetis deficiti jer kidev mSp-s
1.5%-s Seadgenda, 1999 wlisTvis proficitma -- 1.3%, xolo 2000 w. 2.3%
Seadginda. Sesabamisad, izrdeba mTliani saxelmwifo danazogi deficituri
8.5 miliardidan 1995 wels, 462.7 miliardamde 2000 wels. MmTliani
1 saxelmwifo, an sxvagvarad sazogadoebrivi, danazogi ekonomistebis mier daxasiaTebulia, rogorc sxvaoba sagadasaxado Semosavlebsa da saqonlisa da momsaxurebisaTvis gaweul saxelmwifo xarjebze. (ix. g. menqiu, ekonomikis principebi, 2000, gv. 726) 2 wminda ucxouri investiciebi ekonomistebis mier daxasiaTebulia, rogorc sxvaoba qveynis moqalaqeebis mier ucxour aqtivebSi gadaxdil Tanxasa da ucxo qveynis moqalaqeebis mier samamulo aqtivebSi gadaxdil Tanxas Soris. (ix. g. menqiu, ekonomikis principebi, 2000, gv. 850)
62
saxelmwifo investiciebic izrdeba 238.2 miliardidan 1995 wels, 318.3
miliardamde 2000 wels, rac daaxloebiT orjer aRemateba Sesabamis
maCvenebels 1989-1995 wlebis periodSi (Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2002).
aRniSnuli cvladebis zemoqmedebis erTobliobas ganvixilivaT,
rogorc erTiani, SedarebiT mudmivi parametris -- biujetis proficitis --
zemoqmedebas sagareo politikis sistemaze.
biujetis proficitis parametris sapasuxod, romelic Sida
politikur doneze iwvevs naklebad SezRuduli saxelmwifo ekonomikuri
politikis gatarebas (kerZod, izrdeba saxelmwifo Sesyidvebi da
investiciebi), sagareo politikis sisitemis operirebis reJimi gulisxmobs:
1. ufro eqspansiur sagareo politikas; 2. sagareo politikis ekonomikur
aspeqtebze fokusirebas, rac, amave dros, ukve didwilad ganapirobebs aSS-
is saerTaSoriso valdebulebebis Sesrulebas.
2.3.1.3 savaWro balansi
gamoyofili ekonomikuri zrdis tempis da biujetis Sesrulebis
wyvili parametrebi, korelaciaSia mesame parametrTan -- savaWro balansTan.
mTlianobaSi, bolo 50 wlis ganmavlobaSi, aSS eqsporti da importi,
rogorc mSp-s procentuli wili saerTo zrdis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba.
magram rogorc zemoT avRniSneT, 1980-iani wlebidan 1995 wlis CaTvliT,
sabiujeto deficitis fonze viTardeba `tyupi deficitis~ fenomeni da 1995
w. savaWro deficiti 110 miliard dolars Seadgens. sagulisxmoa, rom 1990-
iani wlebis meore naxevarSi, sabiujeto deficitis daZlevis fonze, savaWro
deficiti kidev ufro izrdeba da 2000 wlisTvis aRwevs mocemuli
aTwleulis piks -- 445 miliards. es tendencia am SemTxvevaSi ukve sxva
procesebTan aris dakavSirebuli, da aSS-is ekonomikis zrdas ukavSirdeba. 1
1 kerZod, aq ukve saxezea savaWro partniorebTan urTierTqmedebis ufro swrafi ganviTareba da aSS-is adgilobrivi moxmarebis zrda, risi dakmayofilebac ukve ver xerxdeba Sida warmoebiT, xolo gansxvaveba warmoebasa da moxmarebas Soris gazrdili importiT kompensirdeba. amave dros, aSS-is mzardi ekonomika sul ufro metad momxiblavi xdeba ucxoeli Tu adgilobrivi investorebisaTvis, romelTa mzardi moTxovna
63
Cven ar ganvixilavT savaWro deficitis gamomwvev calkeul faqtorebis, anu
sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli cvladebis konkretul
zemoqmedebas sistemaze. Tumca aRniSnuli cvladebis zemoqmedebis
erTobliobas ganvixilavT, rogorc erTiani parametris -- uaryofiTi
savaWro balansis -- zemoqmedebas sagareo politikis sistemaze.
marTalia, ekonomistebs Soris ar arsebobs konsensusi imis Taobaze,
Tu zogadad ramdenad saxifaToa ekonomikisaTvis savaWro deficiti, faqtia,
rom igi erovnuli danazogis Semcirebis tendenciaze miuTiTebs, rac
grZelvadian terminebSi ekonomikuri zrdis Semaferxebeli pirobaa.
Sesabamisad, aRniSnuli parametri iwvevs iseTi makroekonomikuri cvladebis
amoqmedebas, romlebic isev da isev mimarTulia mwarmoeblurobis donis
amaRlebaze. maT Soris, am SemTxvevaSi, ukve ZiriTadia saxelmwifos
orientacia infrastuqturis, ganaTlebis da teqnologiuri inovaciebis
ganviTarebaze, rac Tavis mxriv, Sida resursebis mobilizacias gulisxmobs.
Sesabamisad, sagareo politikis sistemac, romelic reagirebs
uaryofiTi savaWro balansis parametrze, operirebs reJimSi, romelic kvlav
gulisxmobs: 1. naklebad eqspansiur sagareo politikas da 2. sagareo
politikis ekonomikur aspeqtebze fokusirebas.
2.3.2 aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis reagireba socialur-ekonomikuri
struqturis parametrebze.
rogorc avRniSneT, gamoyofili socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis
sapasuxod, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistema operirebs reJimSi, romlis
erT-erT ZiriTad aspeqts warmoadgens SezRuduli, an piriqiT, gazrdili
eqspansiuroba. konkretualad ra Sinaarss vdebT am cnebebSi?
Tu 1970-ian wlebSi Zlieri ekonomika aduRabebda aSS-is aliansebs da
uzrunvelyofda misi samxedro Zalebis ganlagebas msoflios sxvadasxva
kuTxeSi gadasaxadis gadamxdelebze damatebiTi dawolis gareSe, sabiujeto
investirebaze aseve ukve ver kmayofildeba Sida erovnuli danazogebiT. Sesabamisad, viTardeba kidev erTi Tanamavali procesi -- qveynis sagareo valis zrda.
64
da savaWro deficitebis zrdis fonze, politikuri istebliSmenti
iZulebulia gadasinjos Tavisi prioritetebi. Tavs iCens aSS-is Sida
politikur-ekonomikuri usafrTxoebis problemebi, romelTa Soris
ZiriTadia: siRaribis problema, demografiuli mdgomareobis gaureseba,
sapensio uzrunvelyofis problema, samedicino uzrunvelyofis problema,
saganmanaTleblo sistemis araadeqvaturoba, garemos dacvis mdgomareobis
gauareseba da sxva (Cegzy^ 2001^ cnh&12^ Country Profile Table, 2002). aRniSnuli
socialur-ekonomikuri problemebi pirvel rigSi iwvevs saxelmwifos
ekonomikuri politikis Sida prioritetebze koncentracias, rac, bunebrivia,
zRudavs aSS-is `gadaxdisunarianobas~ saerTaSoriso masStabiT. Sesabamisad,
SezRuduli `gadaxdisunarianobis~ pirobebSi, aSS uwindeli warmatebiT
ukve ver axorcielebs mis iseT `aRiarebul~ misiebs, rogoricaa: evropis
usafrTxoebis garantiebis uzrunvelyofa, aRmosavleT aziaSi balansis
SenarCuneba, Tavisufali savaWro zonebis ganviTarebis xelSewyoba,
saerTaSoriso finansuri institutebis mxardaWera. aseve, izRudeba aSS-is
SesaZleblobebi gadaWras saerTaSoriso masStabis calkeuli konkretuli
problemebi, romlebic (SesaZloa arapirdapir) emuqreba mis interesebs.
sapirispirod, eqspansiuri sagareo politika gulisxmobs e.w.
`amerikuli misiis~ warmatebul Sesrulebas, romlis idealizebul, Tumca
tradiculad damkvidrebul orientirs sagareo politikis `moraluri~
TvalTaxedva warmoadgens (qoCoraZe, 2005, gv. 267-275). am orientirs kargad
axasiaTebs ronald reigani, romlis Tanaxmad, aSS-is sagareo politikis
saboloo mizans mTels msoflioSi `Tavisuflebis gavrceleba~ warmoadgens
(Chace, 1992, p.170). Tavisuflebis gavrceleba uaRresad `Zviri~ misiaa, da, isev
da isev, misi warmateba aSS-is gadaxdisunarianobazea damokidebuli.
miviCnevT, rom rogorc SedarebiT SezRuduli aseve, eqspansiuri
sagareo politika, eyrdnoba sagareo politikis ekonomikur mimarTulebas,
rogorc saerTaSoriso valdebulebebis Tu amocanebis Sesrulebis erT-erT
ZiriTad instruments. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom mocemul periodSi, sagareo
65
ekonomikuri politikis ganviTarebaSi ori tendencia upirispirdeba
erTmaneTs.
1. pirveli tendencia, romelic ufro metad axasiaTebs SedarebiT
SezRuduli ekonomikuri ganviTarebis konteqsts, mimarTulia sakuTriv
aSS-is ekonomikuri interesebis gatarebaze. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom es
tendencia ZiriTadad ganpirobebulia mikroekonomikuri faqtorebiT da
reagirebs konkretuli kompaniebis da mrewvelobis dargebis lobirebaze.
mTlianobaSi, sagareo politikis sistemis gamosaval etapze (da ZiriTadad
operaciul doneze, romelic, am SemTxvevaSi, upirispirdeba deklaraciul
dones) es tendencia gulisxmobs proteqcionistuli savaWro politikis
gatarebas da, garkveul wilad, saerTaSoriso vaWrobis liberalizaciis
Seferxebas. mag. 1988 wlidan 1995 wlamde `mwarmoeblis subsidirebis
ekvivalentis~ (PSE) maCvenebeli meryeobs 21%-30% Soris. aTwleulis meore
naxevarSi, aRniSnuli maCvenebeli klebulobs da meryeobs 13%- 16% Soris. 1
am tendenciis Sesabamisad, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze,
rogorc deklaraciul, aseve operaciul doneebze, SemuSavebulia
ekonomikuri politikis konkretuli mimarTulebebi, romlebic xels uwyoben
aSS-is biznesis SeRwevas ucxour bazrebze. 2 aRniSnuli mimarTulebebi
gansakuTrebiT gamoikveTeba 90-iani wlebis pirvel naxevarSi, rodesac,
magaliTad, NAFTA-s CarCoebSi, aSS meqsikisa da kanadisagan iTxovs
ekologiuri da SromiTi kanonmdeblobis gatarebas.
2. meore tendencia, romelic ufro metad ukavSirdeba ekonomikuri
aRmavlobis konteqsts da ufro metad reagirebs makroekonomikur
faqtorebze, mimarTulia `globaluri finansuri arqiteqturis~
reformirebaze. aRniSnuli mizani, pirvel rigSi, gulisxmobs finansuri da
1 Sesabamisi maCveneblebis mimoxilva ix: The Level of Support for Agriculture in OECD Countries, Economic Perspectives, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No.2, May 1999; http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/ 2 am mimarTulebebs ganekuTvneba: ucxoeTis saxelmwifoTa mier samrewvelo dargebis deregulacia; ucxoeTis saxelmwifoebis mier Sromisa da garemos dacvis standartebis dacva; aSS-is inteleqtualuri sakuTrebis dacva. samive mimarTulebis mizania gamoricxos aSS eqsportis maRali Rirebuleba ucxour bazrebze.
66
ekonomikuri sistemebis gamWvirvalobas da emsaxureba globaluri
ekonomikis stabilurobis xelSewyobas.
sagareo politikis sistemis Sedegebis operaciul doneze, aRniSnuli
tendencia gamoixateba aSS-is mxridan saerTaSoriso savaluto fondze (ssf)
zewolaSi, wevri qveynebis mier finansuri da ekonomikuri indikatorebis
sajaroebis gasazrdelad. 1 meore mxriv, globaluri finansuri
arqiteqturis reformireba aseve gulisxmobs ssf-s gaZlierebas, raTa mas
aSS-sagan damoukideblad SeeZlos SesaZlo finansuri krizisebis acileba. 2
globaluri ekonomikis stabilurobis xelSewyobas emsaxureba agreTve
msoflio bankis da sxvadasxva regionaluri bankebis ganviTarebis
programebi. magram, iseve rogorc ssf-s SemTxvevaSi, aqac politikuri
istebliSmentis damokidebuleba ar aris erTmniSvnelovani, gansakuTrebiT,
arsebuli funqcionaluri gadafarvebis gaTvaliswinebiT. Sesabamisad,
kongresi, romelic 1998 w. iRebs ssf-s 18,000 milioniani dafinansebis pakets,
iTxovs ssf-s, msoflio bankis da regionaluri bankebis muSaobis reformas,
wevr saxelmwifoTa gazrdili pasuxismgeblobis fonze. 3
`globaluri finansuri arqiteqturis~ reformirebis meore ZiriTad
mimarTulebas warmoadgens saerTaSoriso vaWrobis liberalizacia,
1 am mimarTebiT, ukve 1996 wels ssf-m SemoiRo: 1. `monacemTa gavrcelebis specialuri standarti~ (Special Data Dissemination Standard ), romelic ayalibebs wevr saxelmwifoTa mier sajarod warmodgenili ekonomikuri da finansuri monacemebis kriteriumebs; da 2. `monacemTa gavrcelebis zogadi standarti~ (General Data Dissemination Standard), romelic xels uwyobs aRniSnul monacemTa Segrovebis optimizacias. 1998 wels didi Svideulis samitze berminhemSi, aSS-is TaosnobiT ssf-s winaSe daisaxa damatebiTi amocanebi saxelmwifoTa finansuri da ekonomikuri informaciis gamWvrivalobis gasaumjobeseblad. 2 marTlac, samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis krizisis Semdeg, ssf-Si iqmneba axali 50,000 milion dolariani sagangebo sarezervo fondi (New Arrangements to Borrow) da damatebiTi sakredito saSualebebi (Supplemental Reserve Facility; Contingent Credit Line) finansuri krizisebis Tavidan asacileblad.
3 aRniSnuli mtkiceba efuZneba Semdeg wyaroebs: Gramm, Phil (Senator, Chairman of the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, United States Senate), Reforming and Refocusing the International Monetary Fund, "Reforming the International Financial Institutions," An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol. 6, No.1, February 2001 (http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/); Meltzer, Allan (Professor of political Economy and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University), Reforming the International Financial Institutions: A Plan for Financial Stability and Economic Development, "Reforming the International Financial Institutions," An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol. 6, No.1, February 2001 (http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/);
67
ZiriTadad msoflio savaWro organizaciis (WTO) meSveobiT. Cven ukve
visaubreT saerTaSoriso vaWrobis liberalizaciis ormagi datvirTvis
Taobaze, sadac aSS cdilobs uzrunvelyos ormagi mizani: wamyvani rolis
damkvidreba ekonomikur mmarTvelobaSi; da sakuTari interesebis lobireba
axali ekonomikuri sivrceebis farglebSi. aq wina planze wamovwevT aSS-is
Zalisxmevas uzrunvelyos WTO-s procesis ganviTareba saerTaSoriso
konsensusis, rogorc globaluri finansuri arqiteqturis ganviTarebis
umTavresi pirobis, safuZvelze.
WTO-s procesis ganviTarebis sakmaod winaaRmdegobriv fonze, aSS
aqtiurad ibrZvis mocemuli amocanis misaRwevad. klintonis administracia
acxadebs, rom procesis Semdgomi ganviTareba damokidebulia swored rom
industriuli qveynebis mzadyofnaze gaauqmon savaWro barierebi ekonomikis
yvelaze mgrZnobiare seqtorebSi. kerZod, aSS-is iniciativa ZiriTadad
mimarTulia: 1. eqsportis subsidirebis moxsnaze; 2. tarifebis dawevasa da
importis qvotebis gazrdaze; da 3. saxelmwifo savaWro uwyebebis reformaze
(Aaron, 2000). Tumca, rogorc zemoTac aRiniSna, Znelia mkafio zRvaris
gatareba, erTi mxriv, WTO- s procesis xelSewyobas, rogorc `globaluri
finansuri arqiteqturis~ reformirebis erT-erT mimarTulebasa da, meore
mxriv, sakuTriv aSS-is ekonomikur interesebis lobirebas Soris, vinaidan
aRniSnuli procesi, saboloo jamSi, aSS-is eqsports emsaxureba. 1
*****
amgvarad, Sidapolitikuri garemos socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis sam
ZiriTad komponentTan dakavSirebuli procesebi da maTi Tanamavali
movlenebi, romlebic, Sesabamisad, Cvens mier ganixileba, rogorc sagareo
politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli SedarebiT mudmivi parametrebi da
maTi Semadgeneli cvladebi, gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis
operirebis zogad reJims, romelSic gamovyofdiT or urTierTSeRewevad,
1 es aspeqti, isev da isev, yvelaze mkafiod gamoikveTeba soflis meurneobis dargSi, sadac aSS-is mzardi mwarmoebluroba da adgilobrivi bazris gajerebuloba sul ufro metad zrdis amerikuli agrobiznesis damokidebulebas ucxoeTis bazrebze.
68
globalur da erovnul dones. globalur doneze sistemis mizania
globaluri ekonomikuri stabilurobis xelSewyoba; xolo erovnul doneze
-- sakuTriv aSS-is ekonomikuri interesebis lobireba. sistemis
gamosavalze Zevs aRniSnuli reJimebis ganxorcielebis konkretuli
politikuri saSualebebi, romlebic ganekuTvnebian rogorc `deklaraciul~
aseve `operaciul~ SedegTa kategorias. amgvar SedegTa erT-erT
erTobliobad miviCnevT finansuri da savaWro profilis saerTaSoriso
institutebis gamoyenebas. amavdroulad, aRniSnul doneebze sistemis
operirebis balansi (anu Tu operirebis romeli donea wamyvani drois
garkveul monakveTze) ganapirobebs sistemis operirebis metad, Tu naklebad
eqspansiur xasiaTs, anu im xarisxs, romliTac sruldeba `amerikuli misia~
msoflio masStabiT.
2.3.3 korelacia saerTaSoriso garemos parametrebs da Sidapolitikuri
garemos socialur-ekonomikur parametrebs Soris
SesaZleblad migvaCnia Semdegi korelaciebis Cveneba saerTaSoriso
garemos parametrebsa da Sidapolitikuri garemos socialur-ekonomikur
parametrebs Soris:
dadebiTi datvirTvis korelaciad miviCnevT korelacias, erTi mxriv,
komunizmis damarcxebis, axali ekonomikuri centrebis warmoqmnis da
saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis parametrebs da,
meore mxriv, aSS-is ekonomikuri aRmavlobis parametrebs Soris. am
mimarTebiT, wminda Teoriul doneze miviCnevT, rom komunizmis damarcxebam
xeli Seuwyo axali savaWro SesaZleblobebis warmoqmnas, ramac Tavisi
garkveuli wvlili Seitana aSS-is savaWro brunvis zrdaSi, ekonomikuri
zrdis miRwevasa da biujetis deficitis daZlevaSi. Tumca pirdapiri
korelacia, ra Tqma unda, dafarulia mravli sxva faqtoris zemoqmedebiT.
ufro naTelia uSualo kavSiri civi omis dasrulebasa da aSS-is Tavdacvis
biujetidan asobiT milardi dolaris gamonTavisuflebas Soris, rac
struqturuli reformebis ganxorcielebas moxmarda.
69
aseve, erTi mxriv, axali ekonomikuri centrebis ganviTarebiT
ganpirobebulma gazrdilma konkurenciam da saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi
urTierTkavSiriT ganpirobebulma globalizaciis procesebma Tavisi
wvlili Seitanes aSS-is savaWro brunvis zrdaSi, ekonomikuri zrdis
miRwevasa da biujetis deficits daZlevaSi. 1
uaryofiTi datvirTvis korelaciad miviCnevT korelacias, erTi mxriv,
arastabilurobis axali kerebis warmoqmnas da axali safrTxeebis
ganviTarebasa, da meore mxriv, aSS-is ekonomikur daRmavlobas Soris, sadac
savaWro SesaZleblobebis Sekveca, ekonomikuri sanqciebisa da aSS-is
samxedro mzadyofnis aucilebloba uaryofiTad aisaxeba savaWro brunvaze
da sabiujeto deficitis daZlevaze.
arsebuli korelacia saerTaSoriso garemos da Sidapolitikuri
garemos socalur-ekonomikuri struqturis parametrebs Soris aisaxeba
Sesabamis korelaciaSi aRniSnuli parametrebiT ganpirobebuli sagareo
politikis sistemis operirebis reJimebs Soris. kerZod, SeiZleba
aRiniSnos pirdapiri korelacia, da mniSvnelovani gadafarvac ki, sagareo
politikis sistemis operirebis gansxvavebuli reJimebis doneebs Soris:
erTi Mmxriv, saerTaSoriso garemos usafrTxoebis da politikuri
stabilurobis uzrunvelyofis `globalur" dones da saerTaSoriso
ekonomikuri stabilurobis uzrunvelyofis `globalur~ dones Soris, da
meore mxriv, aSS-is erovnuli usafrTxoebis da politikuri stabilurobis
uzrunvelyofis `erovnul~ dones da sakuTari ekonomikuri interesebis
lobirebis `erovnul~ dones Soris. Sesabamisad, sistemis operirebis
`globaluri~ da `erovnuli~ doneebis balansi ganapirobebs sistemis
operirebis eqspansiurobis xarisxs, imisda mixedviT, Tu romeli done aris
dominanturi drois mocemul monakveTze.
1 mTlianobaSi 1991-1999 wlebSi mSp-Si sagareo vaWrobis brunvis wili 4.8 procentuli punqtiT gaizarda, SedarebiT 80-ian wlebTan, sadac am maCvenebelis zrda 3.5 procentul punqts Seadgenda.
70
2.3.4 ideologiuri struqtura
ideologiur struqturas Cven ganvixilavT, rogorc mocemuli
sazogadoebis kulturul, istoriul da politikur tradiciebze
dafuZnebul RirebulebaTa erTobliobas, romelic gansazRvravs mocemul
sazogadoebaSi mTavrobis rolsa da miznebs. Sesabamisad, aSS-is
pluralisturi sazogadoebis ideologiuri struqturis ZiriTadi
parametrebis gamoyofisas vixelmZRvanelebT kriteriumiT, romlis Tanaxmad
aRniSnuli struqturis funqcionireba mimarTulia misTvis damaxasiaTebeli
demokratiuli Rirebulebebis SenarCunebasa da ganmtkicebaze. amdenad, Cven
gamovyofT parametrebs, romlebic asaxavs aSS-is ideologiuri struqturis
zemoT aRniSnuli komponentebis funqcionirebas, mimarTuls TiToeuli
maTganis ZiriTadi Rirebulebebis SenarCunebasa da ganmtkicebaze.
2.3.4.1 politikuri partiebi
aSS-is ori ZiriTadi politikuri partiis - demokratiuli da
respublikuri partiebis - funqcionirebis daxasiaTebisas Cven amovdivarT
ori ZiriTadi daSvebidan: 1. aSS-is politikuri partiebi ayeneben ra
erovnuli masStabis sakiTxebs da asaxaven ra mosaxleobis farTo fenebis
moTxovnebs, warmoadgenen demokratiis maJoritaruli modelis1
ganxorcielebis saSualebas; da 2. aSS-is politikuri partiebi,
gansazRvraven ra xelisuflebis qmedebis ideologiur platformebs,
warmoadgenen misi aRmasrulebeli da sakanonmdeblo Stoebis dakavSirebis
saSualebas. amave dros, Tu vixelmZRvanelebT zemoT aRniSnuli
kriteriumiT, rom politikuri partiebis, rogorc saxelmwifos
ideologiuri struqturis komponentebis, funqcionireba mimarTulia maTi
tradiciuli Rirebulebebis ganmtkicebaze, SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba,
rom: 1. partiebis maJoritaruli demokratiis gatarebis funqcia
1 demokratiis maJoritaruli modelis Tanaxmad, `xelisuflebis pasuxismgebloba xalxis moTxovnilebebis mimarT xorcieldeba masebis politikaSi monawileobis saSualebiT.~ (q. janda, j. beri, j. goldmeni, `amerikuli demokratia,~ Tbilsi, 1995, gv. 181)
71
korelaciaSia maTi ideologiuri poziciebis dapirispirebasTan; xolo 2.
xelisuflebis ori Stos dakavSirebis funqcia korelaciaSia partiebis
ideologiuri poziciebis daaxloebasTan.
amdenad, gamovyofT ideologiuri struqturis aRniSnuli komponentis
-- politikuri partiebis -- or parametrs: 1. ideologiur dapirispirebas; da
2. ideologiur daaxloebas.
partiaTa wminda ideologiuri dapirispireba/daaxloebis
paralelurad, Cven aseve ganvixilavT partiaTa `saxelisuflebo~
dapirisipireba/ daaxloebas, romelTac adgili aqvT, erTi mxriv, kongressa
da prezidents Soris da, meore mxriv, kongresis SigniT. am tipis
dapirispireba/daaxloebas Cven davaxasiaTebT, rogorc `zednaSenur~
movlenebs, romlebic efuZneba ideologiur dapirispireba/daaxloebas.
aRniSnuli parametrebis, da maTi Semadgeneli cvladebis, zemoqmedebas
aSS sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJimze gavaanalizebT
socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis gamoyofili parametrebis konteqstSi.
1989-1995 wlebis negatiuri socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis fonze,
gamovyofT Semdeg principul dapirspirebebs:
saarCevno 1992 wlisaTvis, kongresis demokrati liderebi Sida
socialur-ekonomikur problemebs pirdapir ukavSirebdnen aSS-is uunarobas
etvirTa `amerikuli misia~ msoflio masStabiT (Hamilton, 1992, pp.32-51).
demokratebi konkretulad akritikebdnen buSis administraciis `sabWoTa
politikas~, romelic, maTi mtkicebiT, moklebuli iyo erTian strategiul
xedvas (Congressional Record, November 20, 1991). 1990 da 1992 wlebis
warmomadgenelTa palatis arCevnebi inarCunebs demokratebis umravlesobas,
romelic sul ufro metad amZafrebs saxelisuflebo dapirispirebas
prezidentTan (1992 Congressional Quarterly Almanac, p.5). rogorc avRniSneT,
amgvari dapirispireba zednaSenuri xasiaTisaa, romelic partiul-
ideologiur dapirispirebas efuZneba da romlis aqcentebic Sesabamisad
Zevs qveynis Sida ganviTarebisa da misi saerTaSoriso rolis gansxvavebul
xedvaSi. arsebobs Sexeduleba, rom civi omis dasrulebisa da sparseTis
72
yures omSi gamarjvebis Semdeg, buSs hqonda realuri SesaZlebloba mieRwia
orpartiuli konsensusisTvis sagareo politikaSi (Gergen, 1992, p. 12), magram
buSma ver SesZlo amgvari konsensusis miRweva. yvelaze gavrcelebuli
interpretaciiT, civi omis Semdgomi periodis sxva liderebis msgavsad,
buSi Tavs aridebda did `programul~ proeqtebs, romlebic ukve
araaqtualuri iyo `axali realiebisaTvis~ (Drucker, 1994, pp.106-112). Cven
migvaCnia, rom buSis warumatebloba ganexorcielebina or-partiul
konsensusze dafuZnebuli `axali msoflio wesrigis~ doqtrina, pirvel
rigSi, ganpirobebuli iyo mocemuli periodis Sida socialur-ekonomikuri
parametrebiT, romlebic uSualod moqmedebdnen respublikeli prezidentis
reitingze. Tumca aq umTavresi swored is garemoebaa, rom aRniSnuli
faqtorebi zRudavdnen aSS-is rogorc sakanonmdeblo, aseve aRmasrulebeli
xelisuflebis unars realurd etvirTa saerTaSoriso lideris roli
`axali msoflio wesrigis~ dasamkvidreblad. igive mizeziT, prezident
klintonis gamarjvebiT xelisuflebis orive StoSi demokratebis
damkvidrebis pirobebSi, verc demokratulma partiam SesZlo moepovebina
axali drois dominanturi partiis roli. 1994 wlis e.w. `revoluciuri~
arCevnebisaTvis, 103-e mowvevis demokratul kongress amerikuli presa
axasiaTebda, rogorc yvelaze araefeqtur kongress, sadac respublikelebis
da e.w. `axali demokratebis~ dapirispirebam piks swored Sida politikur
sakiTxebze miaRwia.
mocemul periodSi gamovyofT principuli daaxloebis Semdeg
tendenciebs:
1992 saarCevno wlisTvis, `saxelisuflebo~ daaxloeba kvlav
fiskaluri sakiTxebiT iyo ganpirobebuli, rodesac buSi TanamSromlobda
orive partiasTan sabiujeto deficitis Sesamcireblad (Paget, 1996).
daaxloebis tendencia mkafiod gamoikveTa sagareo politikis sferoSi,
sadac xelisuflebis orive Stos mier sagareo politikis `racionaluri~
safuZvlis Zieba daaxloebis winapiroba xdeba. gamoikveTa ramdenime
mimarTuleba, romelsac miuxedavad partiuli mikuTvnebulobisa, iziarebda
73
rogorc kongresi, aseve TeTri saxlis administracia. 1 amave dros, rogorc
demokratebis, aseve respublikelebis winasaarCevno programebSi gamosWvivis
sagareo politikis internacionalisturi xasiaTi, romelic partniorebTan
TanamSromlobazea orientirebuli (Hamilton, 1992, pp. 32-51; Leach, 1992, pp.17-31;
Ornstein, 1992, pp.1-16, Yankelovich, 1992, pp.1-12).
mocemuli socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis negatiuri parametrebis
pirobebSi, romlebic amave dros viTardebian saerTaSoriso garemos
mouwesrigeblobis, arastabilurobis da dezintegraciis maxasiaTeblebis
aRwerili parametrebis fonze, politikuri partiebis daaxloeba-
dapirsipirebis parametrebi (da maTi Semadgeneli cvladebi) sagareo
politikis sistemis Sesavalzeve gansazRvraven misi operirebis uaRresad
winaaRmdegobriv reJims da, Sesabamisad, winaaRmdegobriv Sedegebs.
yofili sabWoTa kavSiris mimarT amgvar SedegTa TvalsaCino magaliTs
warmoadgens kongresis ukiduresi kritikis fonze, administraciis mier
wamoyenebuli `Tavisuflebis mxardaWeris aqtis~ kanonproeqti (Freedom
Support Act). aRniSnuli kanonproeqti realurad warmoadgenda administraciis
mcdelobas moepovebina kongresis mxardaWera misi `sabWoTa politikis~
mimarT. meore mxriv, arc kongresi da arc prezidenti ar Cqarobdnen
sagareo daxmarebis damtkicebasTan dakavSirebuli politikuri safasuris
gaRebas. `aqtis~ irgvliv gamarTuli debatebi saukeTesod asaxavda arsebuli
politikuri dapirispirebebis srul speqtrs (bukia, 2000, gv. 50-51).
amgvarad, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom SedarebiTi ekonomikuri daRmavlobis
pirobebSi, politikuri partiebis dapirispirebis parametri, atarebs mkveTr
ideologiur xasiaTs da, pirvel rigSi, korelaciaSia aRweril negatiur
socialur-ekonomikur parametrebTan. meore mxriv, daaxloebis parametri
ufro metad atarebs saxelisuflebo xasiaTs, sadac gamomdinare saerTo
amocanebidan, xdeba orpartiuli kongresis an xelisufleobis orpartiuli
1 es mimarTulebebia: -- aSS-is wamyvani saerTaSoriso rolis ganxorcieleba mravalmxrivi saerTaSoriso monawileobis safuZvelze; -- demokratiuli ganviTarebis xelSewyoba yofil sabWoTa banakSi; -- sagareo politikaSi ekonomikuri sanqciebis da savaWro urTierTobebis mzardi rolis aRiareba.
74
Stoebis poziciaTa Tanxvedra. am SemTxvevaSi, partiaTa saxelisuflebo
daaxloeba, pirvel rigSi, korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso garemos
parametrebTan. mTlianobaSi, partiuli motivaciiT ganpirobebulma
winaaRmdegobrivma urTierTqmedebebma SezRudes aSS-is sagareo politikis
sistemis unari emoqmeda optimalur reJimSi, romelic dafuZnebuli iqneboda
racionalur mimarTebaze xelisuflebis saerTaSoriso da Sidapolitikur
valdebulebebs Soris. Sesabamisad, SeizRuda aSS-is unari, aRmoeCina
qmediTi mxardaWera, rogorc daSlis piras mdgari, aseve Semdgom ukve
calkeul respublikebad daSlili sabWoTa kavSirisadmi.
1995-2000 wlebis ekonomikuri aRmavlobis periodSi, gamovyofT
amerikuli partiebis principuli dapirispirebis Semdeg tendednciebs.
1996 saarCevno wlisTvis, demokrati prezidentisa da respublikuri
kongresis partiuli niSniT dapirispireba ZiriTadad ukavSirdeboda
saerTaSoriso sistemis problemebs da ganisazRvreboda im sirTuleebiT,
romlebic Tan sdevda sagareo politikis orientirebis Camoyalibebas.
literaturaSi amgvari uTanxmoebis mizezad moiazreba, erTi mxriv, civi
omis periodis aliansebis rRveva da, meore mxriv, kongresis fokusireba
saSinao politikis sakiTxebze. arsebobs Sexedulebac, romelic arsebul
uTanxmoebas kongresSi TaobaTa cvlas ukavSirebs (Lindsay, 2000, pp.5-8). Cveni
azriT, arsebuli partiuli uTanxmoeba ganpirobebulia saerTaSoriso
sistemis ganviTarebis parametrebiT da im orpartiuli konsensusis
TandaTanobiTi gaqrobiT, romelic arsebobda civi omisa da uSualod mis
Semdgom periodSi. 1 amave dros, Tu e.w. `pirveli rigis~ dapirispireba aSS-
is saerTaSoriso rolis Taobaze gamoikveTa ufro `internacionalisturad~
ganwyobil TeTr saxlsa da ufro `izolacionisturad~ ganwyobil kongress
Soris, `meore rigis~ dapirispireba aseve partiuli niSniT gamoikveTa TviT
kongress SigniT.
1 kerZod, konsensusis Camoyalibeba principulad ver moxerxda aSS-is saerTaSoriso movlenebSi da, Seabamisad, sagareo operaciebSi monawileobis xarisxis Taobaze.
75
sagulisxmoa is garemoebac, rom mocemuli ekonomikuri aRmavlobis
periodSi, rodesac vaSingtonis sabiujeto debatebis fokusi TandaTanobiT
inacvlebs Warbi saxsrebis mizanmimarTuli gamoyenebis alternativebze,
sagareo daxmarebisa da saerTaSoriso monawileobis sakiTxebi kvlav
dapirispirebis sagnad rCeba da ar figurirebs ganxilul alternativebs
Soris.
migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli dapirispirebebi ZiriTadad saxelisuflebo
xasiaTisaa da ZiriTadad atarebs kongresisa da prezidentis institutebis
tradiciuli konfrontaciis xasiaTs. Tumca, isev-da-isev amgvari
dapirispireba ufro `zednaSenuri~ xasiaTisaa da Tavisi arsiT mainc
partiul-ideologiur dapirispirebas efuZneba.
partiuli niSniT aRniSnuli dapirispirebebis paralelurad,
mimdinareobs ideologiuri daaxloebis procesic. klintonis
administraciis meore vadis periodidan mkafio zRvari partiebis zogad
ideologiur CarCoebs Soris mniSvnelovnad mcirdeba. 1 2000 w.
saprezidento arCevnebma kidev ufro metad warmoaCina partiebis ZiriTadi
poziciebis Tanxvedra. prezidentobis kandidati jorj v. buSi acxadebs
rom igi axali tipis respublikelia, romlis filosofia e.w. `TanamgrZnob
konservatizmSi~ mdgomareobs (The Economist, July 1, 2000, pp.23-25). Tavis mxriv,
umciresobaSi yofnis xuTi wlis Semdeg, demokratebi acxadeben, rom isini
swored rom `axali tipis~ demokratebi arian, romlebic bevrad ufro
`demokratiuli~ mmarTvelobis ganxorcielebas isaxaven miznad. 2
1 SeiZleba iTqvas, rom amerikis finansuri elita aRar aris sworxazovnad
asocirebuli respublikur partiasTan. magaliTad, bolo xuTi saprezidento arCevnebis analizma aSS-is yvelaze mdidar 100 qalaqSi uCvena, rom demokratebis wil mosuli xmebis raodenoba gaizarda 25%-idan 1980 wels, 41%-mde 1996 wels. xolo 1996 w. klintonma 17 umdidresi saarCevno olqidan, 13-Si moipova gamarjveba.
2 kongresSi sul ufro Zlierdeba demkratebis zomieri fraqcia `blu dog-i~
romelic Tavis wevrebs Soris biznesis warmoamdgenelebsac aerTianebs. fraqcia im centristuli jgufis dasayrdenia, romelic uwin SedarebiT ugulebelyofili iyo demokratebis ZiriTadi birTvis mier, magram TandaTanobiT sul ufro angariSgasawevi gaxda.
76
SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom ganxilul periodSi partiebis
daaxloebis parametri ufro metad ideologiuri xasiaTisaa da
ganpirobebulia Sesabamisi socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebiT, romlebic
erTi mxriv, xels uwyoben aSS sazogadoebis socialur-ekonomikur
harmonizacias, xolo meore mxriv, ganapirobeben partiebis ideologiuri
platformebis centriskenul ganviTarebas. amave dros, dapirispirebis
parametri saxelisuflebo xasiaTs atarebs da pirvel rigSi korelaciaSia
saerTaSoriso sistemis parametrebTan.
ganvixiloT, Tu rogor gansazRvravs aRniSnul periodSi partiaTa
dapirispireba/daaxloebis parametri da misi Semadgeneli cvladebi sagareo
politikis sistemis operirebis reJims.
dapirispireba prezidentsa da kongress Soris sistemis gamosavalze,
pirvel rigSi, gamoikveTa sagareo daxmarebis sakiTxebSi. 1995 w. kongresma
miiRo e.w. `amerikis sagareo interesebis aqti,~ romelic gamiznuli iyo
sagareo daxmarebis mniSvnelovan Sekvecaze. meore mxriv, kongresma ar miiRo
sagareo daxmarebis kanonmdeblobis -- administraciis sagareo politikis
qvakuTxedis -- reformis winadadeba, romelic iTvaliswinebda aqcentis
gadatanas tradiciuli ormxrivi daxmarebidan eqvsi farTo mimarTulebis
dafinansebaze. 1 yofil sabWoTa kavSirTan mimarTebaSi, mxardaWeris
ideologia SenarCunebuli iyo deklaraciul doneze, Tumca realur
terminebSi gamoxatuli mxardaWera gacilebiT naklebi aRmoCnda. 2
amave dros, partiaTa ideologiuri daaxloeba arbilebs sagareo
politikis sistemis operirebis konfrontaciul `waxnagebs.~ radikali
`revolucioneri~ respublikelebis pozicia or-partiul TanamSromlobazea
1 es mimarTulebebia: demokratiis ganviTareba, mSvidobis xelSewyoba, humanitaruli
daxmareba, vaWrobisa da investirebis meSveobiT ekonomikuri zrdis xelSewyoba, diplomatiisa da mdgradi ganviTarebis xelSewyoba.
2 1995 fiskaluri wlis sagareo operaciebis asignirebis kanonis farglebSi kongresma daamtkica ruseTisa da yofili sabWoTa respublikebisadmi 850 milioni aSS dolaris odenobis ekonomikuir daxmareba, iseve rogorc 400 milioniani birTvuli iaraRis daSlis nan-lugaris programa. es klintonis mier moTxovnil Tanxaze 50 milioniT iyo naklebi da, ra Tqma unda, ver Seedreboda 1994 fiskaluri wlisaTvis miRebul 2.5 miliardian daxmarebas.
77
orientirebuli, xolo klintonis sajaro gamosvlebi aseve respublikur
kongresTan TanamSromlobis suliskveTebiT xasiaTdeba. 2000 wlis
prezidentobis kandidatebi mxars uWeren internacionalistur sagareo
politikas da ganeridebian TavianTi partiebis izolacionisturad
ganwyobil frTas (bukia, 2001, gv. 176-178).
amgvarad, erTi mxriv, partiebis ideologiuri daaxloeba da, meore
mxriv, saerTaSoriso sistemis movlenaTa simwvave qmnida niadags aSS-is
aqtiuri saerTaSoriso monawileobisaTvis. magram civi omis periodis
konsensusis gaqrobam da erovnuli interesebis erTiani koncepciis
Camoyalibebis sirTulem xeli Seuwyo partiuli niSniT saxelisuflebo
dapirispirebas da kvlav SezRuda e.w. `amerikuli misiis~ Sesruleba.
daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom politikuri partiebis, rogorc
ideologiuri struqturis komponentebis, urTierTqmedeba ideologiuri da
saxelisuflebo daaxloeba-dapirispirebis parametrebis mixedviT, sagareo
politikis sistemisaTvis relevanturia im mimarTebebiT, romlebic
yalibdeba, erTi mxriv, kongresis farglebSi da, meore mxriv, kongressa da
prezidents Soris. amave dros, partiebis daaxloeba-dapirispirebis
parametrebis ganxilva saerTaSoriso garemosa da socialur-ekonomikuri
garemos parametrebTan korelaciaSi, saSualebas gvaZlevs vamtkicoT, rom
aRwerili tendenciebis xasiaTi ganpirobebulia aRniSnuli parametrebis
Semadgeneli cvladebis intensivobiT. kerZod, e.w. `radikaluri~ cvladebi,
romlebic dominireben saerTaSoriso sistemasa Tu Sidapolitikuri
sistemis socialur-ekonomikur struqturaSi, ganapirobeben partiebis
urTierTqmedebas daaxloebis parametrze; xolo SedarebiT `liberaluri~
cvladebi ganapirobeben urTierTqmedebas dapirispirebis parametrze.
Sedegad, partiebis urTierTqmedeba daaxloeba-dapirispirebis parametrebze
ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis winaaRmdegobriv
reJims, sadac sistemis gamosavalze miRebuli operaciuli Tu
deklaraciuli Sedegebi ar gamoirCeva komplementarulobiT da asustebs
erTmaneTis efeqturobas.
78
2.3.4.2 sazogadoebrivi azri da masmedia
literaturaSi yvelaze gavrcelebuli TvalsazrisiT amerikuli
sazogadoebrivi azri Sors aris sagareo politikis `kvalificiuri~
analizisagan da Semoifargleba politikis `pragmatuli SefasebiT~ (The
Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, 1999; Sabatier, 1991, p. 271; Gerner, 1991, p. 144).
sapirispiro pozicia iziarebs zogad debulebas amerikuli sazogadoebis
arainformirebulobis Taobaze, magram amtkicebs, rom sazogadoebrivi azris
reagireba sagareo politikaze Tanmimdevrulia (Hinich and Munger, 1994; Holsti,
1997).
sazogadoebrivi azris analizisas, Cven, pirvel rigSi, amovdivarT misi
socialur-ekonomikuri funqciidan zemoqmedeba moaxdinos sagareo
politikis formirebaze, vinaidan demokratiuli sazogadoebis pirobebSi,
sagareo politikis `pragmatuli Sefaseba~ warmoadgens swored rom
`pragmatul~ iaraRs politikuri istebliSmentis marTvisa (bukia, 2003,
gv.222-226). sazogadoebriv azrs Cven ganvixilavT wyvili parametris --
`konsolidireba-gafantulobis~ parametrebis mixedviT, romlebic
korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso garemosa da Sidapolitikuri garemos
parametrebTan. viTvaliswinebT ra literaturaSi ganxilul sazogadoebrivi
azris formirebis mravalgvar faqtors, 1 migvaCnia, rom mimdinare
politikur konteqstSi, erT-erT aseT gadamwyvet faqtors warmoadgens
media. udaoa, rom media wamyvan rols TamaSobs rogorc mimdinare
`informaciuli konteqstis~ uzrunvelyofaSi, aseve moqalaqeTa
stereotipebis da molodinebis formirebaSi, romlebic, Tavis mxriv,
ganapirobeben Sesabamisi `politikuri mesijebis~ aRqmas.
mediis funqciebs Soris, literaturaSi tradiciulad gansakuTrebuli
mniSvneloba eniWeba: 1. politikuri `dRis wesrigis~ gansazRvras da e.w.
`SesaZleblobebis fanjrebis~ 2 Seqmnas; 2. politikosebisaTvis `realur~
1 rogoricaa eris istoriuli gamocdileba, kulturul-ideologiuri Tvisebebi da sxva. 2 termini gulisxmobs garkveul drois monakveTs, romlis manZilzec politikosebisTvis upriania reagirebis gakeTeba garkveul Sida Tu saerTaSoriso mniSvnelobis movlenaze.
79
droSi informaciis miwodebas da aRniSnul sakiTxebze maTi poziciis
gaxmovanebas (Strobel, 2000, pp.38-42). saubroben aseve sxvadasxva politikuri
interesebis mier mediis mikerZoebuli gamoyenebis Sesaxeb (Pickering, 2000, pp. 5-
19). kvlevis miznebis Sesabamisad, aRniSnul funqciebs Cven gavaerTianebdiT
or ZiriTad funqciaSi; esenia: 1. sazogadoebriv azrze zemoqmedebis da 2.
sazogadoebrivi azris gamoxatvis funqciebi. amgvarad, Cvens kvlevaSi media
asrulebs erTgvar SemakavSirebel rols erTi mxriv, 1. saerTaSoriso da
Sida politikur garemosa da sazogadoebriv azrs Soris; da meore mxriv 2.
sazogadoebriv azrsa da sagareo politikis istebliSments Soris.
Sesabamisad, medias da sazogadoebriv azrs Cven ganvixilavT rogorc
ideologiuri struqturis kompleqsur komponents. medias Cven
davaxasiaTebT damoukidebeli wyvili parametris -- `intensiuri-wyvetili
gaSuqebis~ parametrebis -- mixedviT, romlebic asaxaven mediis fokusirebis
xarisxs saerTaSoriso da Sidapolitikuri garemos movlenebze. amave dros,
davuSvebT, rom `intensiuri-wyvetili gaSuqebis~ wyvili parametri
Sesabamisad korelaciaSia sazogadoebriv azris `konsolidireba-
gafantulobis~ wyvil parametrTan.
rogor gansazRvravs sazogadoebrivi azris da mediis aRniSnuli
parametrebi sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJims?
socialur-ekonomikuri struqtris negatiuri parametrebis periodis
mediis mimoxilva gviCvenebs, rom is ZiriTadi Tematuri sakiTxebi,
romelebic intensiuri gaSuqebiT xasiaTdeba, calsaxad ukavSirdeba Sida
socialur-ekonomikur problemebs. migvaCnia, rom presis amgvari
koncentracia swored rom Sida socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis
aRwerili parametrebiT aris ganpirobebuli. mediis intensiuri gaSuqebis
Sesabamisad izrdeba sazogadoebrivi azris koncentracia Sida politikis
sakiTxebze, rac xSirad `socialuri konservatizmis~ terminebSi xasiaTdeba
(Yankelovich, 1992, p.4; Ornstein, 1992, p.2,3,15). warmoCindeba aseve uaryofiTi
Sinaarsobrivi datvirTvis korelacia politikuri partiebis ideologiuri
`dapirspirebis~ paramametrsa da sazogadoebrivi azris `konsolidirebis~
80
parametrs Soris, sadac sazogadoebrivi azri uaryofiTad aris ganwyobili
partiebis araTanmimdevruli qmedebebisadmi. 1
mocemuli periodis mediaSi gaSuqebuli serTaSoriso sakiTxebi
saerTaSoriso garemos warmoadgens `mouwesrigeblobis,~ `arastabilurobis~
da `dezintegraciis~ maxasiaTebelebis parametrebiT. 2 amgvari asaxva ar
uwyobs xels sazogadoebrivi azris konsolidirebas saerTaSoriso
movlenebSi aSS-is aqtiuri monawileobis Taobaze, -- anu sagareo
politikasTan mimarTebaSi, sazogadoebrivi azris ganviTareba mimdinareobs
`gafantulobis~ parametris mixedviT. amave dros, aRebuli periodis
WrilSi, saerTaSoriso sakiTxebi ZiriTadad `wyvetili~ gaSuqebis
parametriT xasiaTdeba, romelic pirdapir korelaciaSia sazogadoebrivi
azris `gafantulobis~ parametrTan. `gafantulobis~ aRniSnuli parametri,
amave dros, uaryofiTi datvirTvis korelaciaSia politikuri partiebis
`saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametrTan, romelic Tavisi SinaarsiT, met-
naklebad, internacionalisturi xasiaTisaa. amdenad, 90-iani wlebis
dasawyisSi mosaxleobaSi e.w. `gulSematkivrobisagan daqanculobis~
sindromi viTardeba (Gallup, January 1992).
SeiZleba iTqvas, rom aRniSnuli tendenciebi uSualod aisaxa aSS-is
SesaZleblobebze, gamoeyenebina Tavisi resursebi saerTaSriso asparezze 3
da, kerZod, mis mzadyofnaze, aRmoeCina ekonomikuri daxmareba yofili
saocialisturi qveynebisaTvis (Gergen, 1992, p.13). sagareo politikis sistemis
gamosavalze, iseT sakiTxSic ki, rogoric iyo saerTaSoriso vaWroba, Tavs
iCenda winaaRmdegobrivi tendenciebi, sadac SedarebiT sxva industriul
qveynebTan, aSS axali savaWro barierebis SeqmniT gamoirCeoda (The National
Election Studies Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior).
1 mtkiceba efuZneba presis analizs: The Washungton Post, January, 1989 -- December, 1995: USA Today, January 1989 -- December, 1995. 2 mtkiceba efuZneba presis analizs: The Washungton Post, January, 1989 -- December, 1995: USA Today, January 1989 -- December, 1995. 3 mocemul periodSi, arsebuli saerTaSoriso wesrigis SenarCunebaze aSS Tavisi mTliani erovnuli produqtis 6%-s xarjavda.
81
meore mxriv, maSin rodesac mediis da sazogadoebrivi azris saerTo
interesi saerTaSoriso sistemis aRwerili parametrebis mimarT sustia, is
konkretuli movlenebi, anu cvladebi, romlebic Tavisi intensivobiT
`radikalur~ mniSvnelobas uaxlovdebian mainc iwveven mediis intensiur
gaSuqebasa da sazogadoebrivi azris konsolidacias. marTlac, ori
msoflio omisa da Semdgomi 40 wliani civi omis gamocdilebam daanaxa
amerikelebs, rom aSS-s ar SeuZlia, `dausjelad~ Camoscildes
saerTaSoriso movlenebs da rom did saxelmwifos yovelTvis didi
valdebulebebi akisria (Yankelovich, 1992, p.7).
1995-2000 wlebis ekonomikuri aRmavlobis periods kongresis
kvleviTi centris eqsperti stenli sloani axasiaTebs, rogorc `aSS-is mier
Tavisi saerTaSoriso valdebulebebis ugulebelyofis~ xanas (Sloan,
citirebulia: Lindsay, 2000, pp.40-43). marTlac, 1996 da 2000 saarCevno wlebSi
amerikuli mosaxleoba pirvel rigSi yuradRebas qveynis socialur
problemebze amaxvilebs, rac, bunebrivia, saarCevno wlebis specifikiT aris
ganpirobebuli (ABC/Washington Post, September, 2000; Gallup, July, 2000); magram ufro
farTo konteqstSi, zogadad mcirdeba ra koncentracia socialur-
ekonomikur problemebze, sagareo politikis sakiTxebi meti intensivobiT
Suqdeba mediaSi da SedarebiT ufro metadac eqceva sazogadoebrivi azris
TvalsawierSi. 1 mocemuli periodis mediaSi gamokveTil Tematikaze
dayrdnobiT, miviCnevT, rom mediis `intensiuri gaSuqebis~ parametri pirvel
rigSi korelaciaSia da faqtiurad warmoadgens reaqcias saerTaSoriso
garemos Cvens mier ganxilul or ZiriTad parametrze -- `axali ekonomikuri
centrebis Seqmnisa~ da `saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi
urTierTdamokidebulebis~ parametrebze; anu im parametrebze, romelTa
Semadgeneli maRali intensivobis cvladebic, uSualo kavSirSia amerikuli
mosaxleobis ekonomikur keTildReobasTan.
mediis `intensiuri gaSuqebis~ da sazogadoebrivi azris
`konsolidaciis~ parametrebis sagareo politikis sistemis reJimze
82
zemoqmedebis erT-erT saukeTeso ilustracias, albaT, warmoadgens
klintonis administraciis mier gatarebuli globalizaciis mxardaWeris
sakmaod Tanmimdevruli politika. 2 meore mxriv, aRniSnul periodSi,
rodesac sazogadoeba zogadad kmayofilia, rogorc qveynis Sida socialur-
ekonomikuri viTarebiT, aseve misi saerTaSoriso statusiT, viTardeba
erTgvari socialuri `TviTkmayofilebis~ sindromic, romelsac brukingsis
institutis mkvlevari jeims lindsi `afatiur internacionalizms~ uwodebs
(Lindsay, 2000). sazogadoebrivi azris amgvar gaorebas, romelsac Cven
davaxasiaTebdiT rogorc mis `gafantulobas,~ meore mxarec gaaCnia. kerZod,
igi xels uwyobs garkveuli viwro, Tumca Zlieri inetresebis warmoCenas,
romlebic Tavisi intensivobis xarjze aRweven zemoqmedebis maRal xarisxs
sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis Sedegebze. 3
daskvnis saxiT vityodiT, rom sazogadoebrivi azris da mediis
cvalebadoba, erTi mxriv, `konsolidirebisa~ da `intensiuri~ gaSuqebis
parametrebis, da meore mxriv, `gafantulobisa~ da `wyvetili~ gaSuqebis
parametrebis mixedviT, - sadac, saerTaSoriso sistemis da Sida socialur-
ekonomikuri struqturis cvladebis radikalurobos xarisxis Sesabamisad,
icvleba maTi fokusirebis aqcentebi - ganapirobebs aSS sagareo politikis
sistemis operirebas cvalebad reJimSi, sadac erTmaneTs enacvlebian e.w.
`internacionalisturi~ da `ganridebis~ doneebi. aRniSnuli doneebi ar
arian erTmaneTTan urTierTSevsebis `komplementarul~ damokidebulebaSi.
1 mtkiceba efuZneba presis analizs: The Washington Post, January, 1996 -- September ,2002; USA Today, January, 1996 – September 2002
2 administarcia iRebs zomebs vaWrobisa da investiciebis barierebis Sesamcireblad, romelTa Sorisac ZiriTadia `Crdilo-amerikuli Tavisufali vaWrobis SeTanxmeba (NAFTA), `tarifebsa da vaWrobaze zogadi SeTanxmebis~ (GATT) urugvais raundis dasruleba, `msoflio savaWro organizaciis~ mxardaWera da sxva.
3 swored amgvar `deklaraciuli~ tipis Sedegebad SeiZleba CaiTvalos klintonis administraciis sakmaod damyoli reaqcia WTO-s sawinaRmdego sietlis saprotesto aqciebze, rodesac konkretuli adgilobrivi interesebis `dasamSvideblad~ klintonma mouwoda saerTaSoriso SromiTi standartebis ganmtkicebisTvis, rac Tavis mxriv, `uzrunvelyofili~ iqneboda savaWro sanqciebis gziT. xolo amgvari tipis `operaciul~ Sedegebs ganekuTvneba aSS-is sakmaod winaaRmdegbrivi `meoradi savaWro sanqciebi,~ romlebic iTvaliswineben damsjel zomebs im ucxouri kompaniebis mimarT, romlebic awarmoeben bizness iranTan, libiasTan da kubasTan.
83
2.3.4.3 interesTa jgufebi, arasamTavrobo organizaciebi da analitikuri
centrebi
aSS-is pluralistur sazogadoebaSi, Sidapolitikuri sistemis
ideologiuri struqturis mniSvnelovan komponents warmoadgens interesTa
jgufebi, arasamTavrobo organizaciebi da analitikuri centrebi, romelTac
Cven gavaerTianebT `specialuri interesebis~ kategoriaSi. (qoCoraZe, 2005,
beWdvis procesSi.)
aRniSnuli komponentebis politikur procesebze zemoqmedebis
saSualebebi gansxvavebulia. interesTa jgufebi ZiriTadad mimarTaven
pirdapiri lobirebis saSualebebs, xolo arasamTavrobo organizaciebi da
analitikuri centrebi -- zemoqmedebis arapirdapir, inteleqtualur
(gamokvlevebis, konferenciebis da a.S.) saSualebebs. orive SemTxvevaSi
aRniSnuli erTeulebis mizania ganapirobon sagareo politikis sistemis
operireba reJimSi, romelic xels Seuwyobda sagareo politikis maTTvis
sasurveli konkretuli miznebis miRwevas. Cven ar SevexebiT literaturaSi
jer kidev mimdinare polemikas imis Taobaze Tu ramdenad keTilismyofelia
specialuri interesebis lobireba aSS-is politikuri sistemisaTvis.
avRniSnavT mxolod, rom maTi funqcionireba, pirdapir ukavSirdeba aSS-is
e.w. `kooperaciuli federalizmis~ modelis ganviTarebas, sadac `gamWoli~
interesebi mmarTvelobis yvela doneze fiqsirdeba. ganixilaven specialuri
interesebis iseT funqciebs, rogoricaa sazogadoebis politikuri
reprezentacia, sazogadoebis politikur procesebSi monawileobis
uzrunvelyofa, sazogadoebis informireba da politikuri istebliSmentis
kadrebis aRzrda. Cven gamovyofT specialuri interesebis sagareo
politikaze zemoqmedebis funqcias, romelsac ganvixilavT, erTi mxriv, maTi
sazogadoebriv azrze da, meore mxriv, politikur istebliSmentze
zemoqmedebis TvalsazrisiT. 1 aRniSnul zemoqmedebas Cven ganvixilavT
`Zlieri~ - `susti~ zemoqmedebis wyvili parametris Sesabamisad. amave dros
1 amave dros miviCnevT, rom ukanasknel periodSi izrdeba specialuri interesebis uSualod sazogadoebriv azrze zemoqmedebis xarisxi, rac nawilobriv gamowveulia maT mier mediis mzardi gamoyenebiT.
84
davuSvebT, rom `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametri dadebiT korelaciaSia
sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ da mediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~
parametrebTan. anu miviCnevT, rom sazogadoebrivi azrisa da mediis
araintensiuri fokusireba saerTaSoriso sistemis garkveul sakiTxze qmnis
im neitralur fons, romelic xels uwyobs am sakiTxebTan mimarTebaSi
specialuri interesebis efeqtur zemoqmedebas.
specialuri interesebis cvalebadoba `Zlieri~-`susti~ zemoqmedebis
wyvili parametris RerZze, maTi `viwro specializaciis~ gamo, sagareo
politikis sistemis funqcionirebis reJims sakmaod erTmniSvnelovnad
ganapirobebs, warmarTavs ra mas Sesabamisi konkretuli interesebis
dasakmayofileblad. amave dros, es zemoqmedeba xorcieldeba, rogorc
saerTaSoriso sistemis, aseve Sidapolitikuri sistemis socialur-
ekonomikuri struqturis parametrebTan urTierTqmedebaSi. Tumca es
urTierTqmedebebi ar aris calsaxa da damokidebulia yoveli konkretuli
specialuri interesis matarebeli erTeulis xasiaTze. magaliTad, miviCnevT,
rom iseT farTo jgufebs, rogoricaa biznes korporaciebi da, garkveul
wilad, fermerTa kavSirebi gaaCniaT mkveTrad gamoxatuli pozicia
socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis savaWro deficitis parametrTan
mimarTebaSi. 1 am jgufebis lobi pirdapir ukavSirdeba aRniSnuli
parametris Secvlas da ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis
funqcionirebas reJimSi, romelic mimarTulia sagareo politikis
ekonomikuri aspeqtebis wamowevaze. biznes interesebis `Zlieri~
zemoqmedebis parametri asve korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso sistemis
`saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis~ parametrTan,
romelic aseve ganapirobebs sistemis operirebas reJimSi, romelic sagareo
politikis ekonomikur aspeqtebzea fokusirebuli. 2 `arastabilurobis
1 am poziciis Tanaxmad, savaWro deficiti asaxavs usamarTlo konkurencias, sadac ucxouri kompaniebisTvis advilia aSS-is Sida bazarze SeRweva, xolo amerikul kompaniebs ucxouri mTavrobebis mier Seqmnili barierebi eRobebaT. 2 1992 wels swored biznesis lobim dauWira mxari `Crdilo amerikuli Tavisufali vaWrobis SeTanxmebas~ (NAFTA). biznesis lobis zemoqmedeba aisaxa sagareo daxmarebasTan mimarTebaSic, rodesac, magaliTad, 1993 wlis `sagareo operaciebis asignirebaTa aqtSi~
85
axali kerebis~ da `axali safrTxeebis ganviTarebis~ parametebs ukavSirdeba
aseve samxedro industriis `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametri, 1 xolo
`komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametrs ukavSirdeba iseTi `eTnikuri~ interesTa
jgufebis zemoqmedeba, rogoricaa, magaliTad, `amerikel ebraelTa
kongresi~, `amerikel somexTa erovnuli komiteti,~ `azebaijanul-Turquli
lobi~ da sxva. eTnikuri interesTa jgufebis sagareo politikis
sistemaze `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametri ganapirobebs sistemis gamosaval
etapze iseT deklaraciul Tu operaciul Sedegebs, rogoricaa rus
ebraelTa emigraciis sakiTxi da masTan dakavSirebuli `jeqson-vanikis~
savaWro SezRudva, sagareo daxmareba somxeTisa da mTiani yarabaxisaTvis,
`Tavisuflebis mxardamWeri aqtis~ 907-e Sesworeba da sxva.
literaturaSi arasamTavrobo organizaciebis da analitikuri
centrebis gavlena sagreo politikis sistemaze, pirvel rigSi, aRiniSneba
samSvidobo procesebis xelSewyobis, anu e.w. `meore arxis diplomatiis~
zemoqmedebis TvalsazrisiT (Notter and McDonald, 1998). arsebobs aseve
mosazreba, romelic am organizaciebis aqtivobas ukavSirebs istebliSmentis
orinetacias Tavdacvis dafinansebis gazrdaze, rac iwvevs amgvari kursis
rogorc mxardamWerTa, aseve mowinaaRmdegeTa warmoqmnasa da aqtiurobas
(Watson, 1990).
migvaCnia, rom arasamTvarobo organizaciebis da analitikuri
centrebis warmoqmnisa da aqtiurobis xarisxi ZiriTadad korelaciaSia
saerTaSoriso sistemis parametrebis Semadgeneli cvladebis
`radikalizmis~ xarisxTan. Sesabamisad, am organizaciebis zemoqmedeba
sagareo politikis sistemaze ukavSirdeba saerTaSoriso sistemis aRweril
didwilad iyo gaTvaliswinebuli ekonomikuri xelSewyobis programebi. igive lobis mniSvnelovani waqezebiT muSaobdnen aseve 1997 wels saxelmwifo da komerciis departamentebi `investirebis mravalmxrivi SeTanxmebis~ (MAI) miRwevisaTvis, romelic uzrunvelyofda investirebis xelSemwyob pirobebs amerikuli kompaniebisaTvis. 1 magaliTad, samxedro korporaciebis (Lockheed Martin, Textron, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, etc.) TanadgomiT xorcieldeba prezident klintonis `nato~-s aRmosavleTiT gafarToebis iniciativa; igive konteqstSi xorcieldeba TanamSromloba samxedro kompaniebsa da eTnikuri interesebis gamomxatvel jgufebs Soris, rogoricaa `poloneli amerikelebis~, `ungreli amerikelebis~ da `Cexi amerikelebis~ organizaciebi.
86
parametrebs, romelTa Sorisac gansakuTrebul mniSvnelobas mivaniWebT
`komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametrs. arasamTavrobo organizaciebi da
analitikuri centrebi, romlebic muSaoben aSS-is sagareo politikaze (mag.
aRmosavleT-dasavleTis instituti, karnegis mSvidobis saerTaSoriso
fondi, Ria sazogadoeba - sorosis fondi da mravali sxva) warmatebiT
ewevian post-komunistur sivrceSi samoqalaqo sazogadoebis, Tavisufali
mewarmeobis, adgilobrivi TviTmmarTvelobis ganviTarebis da demokratiuli
aRmSeneblobis sxva amocanebis mxardamWeri politikuri kursis lobirebas.
amave dros unda aRiniSnos, rom federalur doneze, xelisufleba iCens
uaRres sifrTxiles, raTa ar gaxdes romelime erTi interesis gamomxatveli
jgufis zemoqmedebis obieqti (Taft, 2000) da cdilobs iTanamSromlos
arsamTavrobo organizaciebis da analitikuri centrebis maqsimalurad
farTo speqtrTan, rac Tavis mxriv, amcirebs TiToeuli maTganis sagareo
politikis sistemaze zemoqmedebis xarisxs. Tumca specialuri interesebis
sagareo politikis sistemaze zemoqmedebisas, ZiriTad winaaRmdegobas qmnis
TviT saerTaSoriso sistemis Tu Sidapolitikuri sistemis konkretuli
movlenebiT ganpirobebuli Sida dapirispirebebi, romlebic pirvel rigSi
warmoiqmneba gansxvavebuli xasiaTis interesTa jgufebs Soris 1 da,
naklebi xarisxiT, arasamTavrobo organizaciebsa da analitikur centrebs
Soris. interesTa jgufebis da arasamTavrobo organizaciebis aqtivoba aseve
SeiZleba ewinaaRmdegebodes sazogadoebrivi azrisa da mediis saerTo
ganwyobebs, magram rogorc ukve avRniSneT, am ukanasknelTa maRali
`konsolidaciisa~ da `intensiuri~ gaSuqebis parametrebis SemTxvevaSi,
specialuri interesebis zemoqmedebis intensiuroba ukuproporciulad
klebulobs da igi aRar ganixileba Cvens mier, rogorc sistemis operirebis
reJimis ganmsazRvreli faqtori.
2.3.4.4 politikuri istebliSmenti
1 magaliTad, biznes korporaciebsa (Business Roundtable; National Federation of Independent Businesses) da mSromelTa profesiul kavSirebs (AFL-CIO) Soris.
87
aSS-is sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli politikuri
istebliSmentis, rogorc ideologiuri struqturis erT-erTi
umniSvnelovanesi komponentis, funqcionirebis analizi literaturaSi
ZiriTadad xorcieldeba aRmasrulebeli da sakanonmdeblo xelisuflebis
urTierTqmedebis WrilSi. arsebuli analizis qvakuTxeds warmoadgens
dilema demokratiul mmarTvelobasa da mkafio sagareo politikis
ganxorcielebas Soris, romelzedac jer kidev aleqsis de tokevilma
SeaCera yuradReba (de Tocqueville, 1994, pp.80-90). Cveni kvlevis miznebis
Sesabamisad, politikuri istebliSmentis kategoriaSi moviazrebT sam jgufs
-- prezidentis adminisitracias; saxelmwifo da Tavdacvis departamentebs;
da warmomadgenelTa palatisa da senatis sagareo urTierTobaTa
komitetebs -- romelTa Soris urTierTqmedebac vityodiT, rom saboloo
jamSi albaT daiyvaneba kontrolis ganxorcielebisaTvis brZolaze. Cveni
modelis farglebSi, aRniSnuli urTierTqmedeba ganxilulia saerTaSoriso
sistemisa da Sida-politikuri garemos parametrebis zemoqmedebis
TvalsazrisiT, rac Cveni azriT, warmoaCens amgvari urTierTqmedebis
siRrmiseul faqtorebs. istebliSmentis SigniT Camoyalibebul formalur
funqcionalur urTierTobebs Cven ganvixilavT rogorc SedarebiT mudmiv
struqturas, romelic gansazRvravs sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis
formalur arxebs, magram ver axdens arsebiT zegavlenas mis Sedegebze.
gamovyofT istebliSmentis operirebis araformalur funqcionalur
urTierTqmedebebs, romelTa parametrebsac gaaCniaT arsebiTi unari
zemoqmedeba moaxdinon sistemis operirebis Sedegebze. amgvar
urTierTqmedebebs Cven ganvixilavT wyvili `TanamSromloba-gamijnulobis~
parametrebis mixedviT. `TanamSromlobis~ parametrad miviCnevT
urTierTqmedebis process, sadac Semadgeneli cvladebis (anu movlenebis)
jamuri qmedeba gansazRvravs uwyebebis koordinirebul moqmedebas saerTo
miznis misaRwevad. `gamijnulobis~ parametrad miviCnevT urTierTqmedebaTa
process, sadac Semadgeneli cvladebis jamuri qmedeba gansazRvarvs
arakoordinirebul moqmedebas, saerTo miznis sazianod. amave dros,
88
konkretuli cvladebi, romlebic gansazRvraven uwyebebis operirebas
`TanamSromloba-gamijnulobis~ RerZze kavSirSi arian aRniSnuli uwyebebis
`organizaciul kulturasa~ da wamyvani personaliebis individualur
TvisebebTan.
ganxiluli periodis socialur-ekonomikuri struqturisNnegatiuri
parametrebis konteqstSi, sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel pirvel pirebs
Soris politikis ZiriTad mimarTulebebze TanamSromloba dominirebs.
aRniSnuli garemoeba didwilad ganisazRvreba didi xnis piradi da saqmiani
kontaqtebiT, romlebic akavSirebda prezident buSs Tavisi kabinetis wamyvan
wevrebTan, iseve rogorc TviT prezidentis personiT, romlisTvisac, misi
gamocdilebidan gamomdinare, sagareo politika prioritetuli iyo. Tumca
sagareo politikis mesveurebis muSaobis amgvar models, Cven pirvel rigSi
vxsniT saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebis “radikaluri” xasiaTiT,
romlebic Tavisi Zlieri zemoqmedebiT iwveven xelmZRvaneli pirebis
daaxloebas `TanamSromlobis~ parametrze. 1 meore mxriv, cnobilia, rom
saxelmwifo mdivani beikeri sistematurad ugulebelyofda saxelmwifo
departamentis aparats. misi amgvari pozicia saxelmwifo departamentis
profesionalebis ukmayofilebas iwvevda da, saboloo jamSi, mis
qmediTobaze aisaxeboda. amgvari Sidauwyebrivi winaaRmdegoba SeiZleba
ganvixiloT, rogorc `gamijvnis~ parametris proecireba, romelic
realurad asaxavs dapirispirebas prezidentis ofissa da saxelmwifo
deparatmentis aparats Soris. es dapirispireba, pirvel rigSi, SeiZleba
ganvixiloT partiuli dapirispirebis parametrTan korelaciaSi, sadac Tavs
iCens ideologiuri dapirispireba respublikel prezidentsa da saxelmwifo
departamentis, tradiciulad, ufro demokratulad orientirebul
moxeleebs Soris, romelTa dafinansebac, amave dros, bevrad CamorCeboda
1 amave dros, amgvar models Cven ar gavaigivebT literaturaSi cnobil `ierarqiul~ an `konsensusis~ modelebTan, vinaidan aq ar daikvirveba arc mkacri ierarqiuli TanamSromloba, rogorc es, magaliTad, damaxasiaTebeli iyo hari trumenis administraciisTvis, da arc iZulebiTo konsensusi, rogorc es damaxasiaTebeli iyo lindon jonsonis adminsitraciisTvis.
89
sxva departamentebis dafinansebas. 1 Tumca dapirispireba arsebobda TeTr
saxlsa da pentagonis samxedro specialistebs Sorisac, romlebic
uaRresad SeSfoTebulni iyvnen sabrZolo arsenalebis Semcirebis buSis
iniciativebis gamo. 2 `gamijvnis~ parametri `muSaobs~ aseve samxedro
uwyebis xelmZRvanelobasa da aparats Soris, sadac ukve prezident
klintonis administraciis Tavdacvis mdivani les aspini mxars uWers
evropaSi aSS SeiaraRebis Semcirebas, `strategiuli Tavdacvis iniciativis~
(SDI) programis gauqmebas, da mTlianad Tavdacvis biujetis Sekvecas, rac
samxedro biurokratiis ukmayofilebas iwvevs. more mxriv, klintonis
erovnuli usafrTxoebis mrCeveli entoni leiki 3 kolegialur
urTierTobebs inarCunebs saxelmwifo mdivan uoren kristoferTan da
maqsimalurad Tavs aridebs uwyebaTaSorisi urTierTobebis niqsoniseul
models. 4 magram, saxelmwifo departamentis bevri profesionalisTvis
kristoferi, mxolod-da-mxolod prezidentis surogatia, romelic, Tavis
mxriv, ver atarebs Tanmimdevrul sagareo politikas. 5 amasTan mimarTebiT,
presa pirdapir wers saxelmwifo departamentis samuSao suliskveTebis
dacemis Taobaze (The Washington Post, June, 1994). analogiurad wina prezidentis
adminsitraciisa, gamijvna sagareo politikis aparatis pirvel pirsa da
aparatis biurokratias Soris, aseve warmoadgens im gamijvnis proeqcias,
romelic warmoiqmna TeTr saxlsa da aparatis biurokratias Soris,
miuxedava imisa, rom aq ver SevZlebT saubars raime gamoxatul ideologiur
dapirispirebaze.
1 1989 w. saxelmwifo departamentis fondebi Seadgenda Tavdacvis sferoSi gamoyofili fondebis 1%-ze naklebs. 2 am iniciativebis erT-erT TvalsaCino gamoxatulebas warmoadgenda gaxmaurebuli maltis samiti, romelic START -is farglebSi ori supersaxelmwifos samxedro arsenals 50%-iT amcirebda. 3 leiki Tavis droze muSaobda henri kisinjeris erovnuli usafrTxoebis sabWoSi. 4 TanamSromloba gansakuTrebiT gamoikveTa iseT sakiTxebSi, rogoric iyo bosnia, haiti da somali. 5 saxelmwifo departamentis profesionalebi, kerZod, gamoTqvamdnen ukmayofilebas, CineTisa da gaeros mimarT warmoebuli politikis cvalebadobis Taobaze.
90
dapirispirebas TeTr saxlsa da sagareo politikis istebliSmentis
aparats Soris ganvixilavT saerTaSoriso sistemis im radikalur
cvladebTan da parametrebTan mimarTebaSi, romlebic Seadgenen
saerTaSoriso sistemis `mouwesrigeblobis~ da `arastabilurobis~
maxasiaTeblebs. miviCnevT, rom aRniSnuli parametrebi arRvevdnen ra
sagareo politikis garkveul orientirebs, amave dros, aviwrovebdnen
sagareo politikaze pasuxixmgebeli istebliSmentis monawileTa wres.
sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze, biurokratiul aparatsa da
mis liderebs Soris `gamijvnis~ parametris moqmedebam kulminacias miaRwia
1995 wels, rodesac saxelmwifo mdivani kristoferi da vice prezidenti al
gori, `mTavrobis reorganizaciis~ programis farglebSi, gamovidnen
sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli sami didi uwyebis - saerTaSoriso
ganviTarebis saagentos (AID), SeiaraRebis kontrolisa da ganiaraRebis
saagentos (ACDA) da aSS sainformacio saagentos (USIA) saxelmwifo
departamenTan mierTebis iniciativiT. iniciativas, Tavis mxriv, aqezebda
senatis sagareo urTierTobaTa komitetis respublikeli Tavmjdomare jesi
helmsi (Congressional Quarterly Almanac, 1995, pp.3-9).
sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli biurokratiuli aparatis nakleb
efeqturoba misi liderebis pirispir, iseT saerTaSoriso konteqstSi, sadac
saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebi `radikalur~ mniSvnelobas uaxlovdebian,
aseve SeiZleba aixsnas TviT biurokratiuli organizaciis Teoriis
meSveobiTac. kerZod, jeims uilsonis `warmatebulobis principebis~
Tanaxmad, organizacia warmatebulia Tuki mas SeuZlia: 1. gadawyvitos, Tu
rogor gadaWras Tavisi kritikuli amocanebi; 2. miaRwios Sida konsensuss
am kritikuli amocanebis CamoyalibebsaTan dakavSirebiT; 3. miaRwios
moqmedebis Tavisuflebasa da gareSe politikur mxardaWeras mocemuli
amocanebis axleburad gansazRvrisaTvis (Wilson, 1989). migvaCnia, rom rodesac
sagareo politikis aparati operirebs saerTaSoriso garemoSi, sadac
Semadgeneli cvladebi `radikaluri~ mniSvnelobisaa, zemoT aRniSnuli
principebi TiTqmis miuwvdomeli xdeba. aqve gasaTvaliswinebelia sagareo
91
politikis aparatis biurokratiuli kultura, romlisTvisac sociologi
robert mertonis Tanaxmad, damxasiaTebelia `miznebis wanacvleba~ - anu
garkveuli Sidauwyebrivi procedurebis swori Sesrulebis prioritetuloba
arsebiT miznebTan SedarebiT (Merton, 1952, pp.361-71). amgvari
Sidaorganizaciuli kultura gansakuTrebiT akninebs biurokratiuli
aparatis, da pirvel rigSi, saxelmwifo departamentis rols saerTaSoriso
sistemis radikaluri cvladebis konteqstSi, sadac swrafi da qmediTi
gadawyvetilebebis miRebas arsebiTi mniSvneloba eniWeba. amave dros,
rogorc zemoT avRniSneT, vinaidan sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli
aparati ZiriTadad funqcionirebs iseT Sidapolitikur garemoSi,
romlisTvisac ar aris damaxasiaTebeli sazogadoebrivi azris
saerTaSoriso movlenebze xangZlivi fokusireba, calkeulma `specialurma
interesebma~ SeiZleba zemoqmedebis sakmaod intensiur xarisxs miaRwion.
amdenad, rogorc administraciis, aseve kongresis sagareo urTierTobebis
komitetebis mxridan aparatisadmi `frTxil~ damokidebulabas ganvixilavT
korelaciaSi `sazogadoebrivi azris gafantulobisa~ da `specialur
interesTa intensiuri zemoqmedebis~ parametrebTan.
ra reJimSi reagirebs aSS-is sagreo politikis sistema sagareo
politikaze pasuxismgebeli istebliSmentis operirebis modelze, sadac
moqmdebs `TanamSromlobis~ parametri istebliSmentis sami komponentis -
TeTri saxlis, kongresis komitetebis da sagareo politikis uwyebebis -
liderebs Soris, magram moqmedebs `gamijvnis~ parametri aRniSnul
liderebsa da sagareo politikis aparatis biurokratias Soris?
SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom ganxiluli periodis
saerTaSoriso sistemis movlenaTa konteqstSi, sagareo politikaze
pasuxismgebeli istebliSmentis liderebi, romlebic principSi moklebulni
arian didi gamocdilebis mqone profesional biurokratiul aparatTan
nayofier TanamSromlobas, saerTaSoriso sistemis yovel individualur
movlenaze sapasuxod, atareben individualur politikur kurss.
Sesabamisad, sagareo politikis sistema yoveli calkeuli movlenis
92
pirispir, operirebs individualur reJimSi, romelic moklebulia sistemur
xasiaTs. operirebis amgvari reJimi, ZiriTadad reaqtiuli xasiaTisaa.
kerZod, yofil sabWoTa kavSirTan mimarTebaSi, amgvari reJimi sistemis
gamosaval etapze ZiriTadad uzrunvelyofs `deklaraciuli~ tipis
Sedegebs, sadac erTmniSvnelovnad Camoyalibebulia aSS-is erovnuli
interesebisaTvis yofili sabWoTa kavSiris stabiluri, demokratiuli,
sabazro ekonomikis principebze agebuli ganviTarebis mniSvneloba, magram
ar arsebobs konsensusi imis Taobaze, Tu ra tipis da ra moculobis unda
iyos aSS-is daxmareba zemoaRniSnuli miznis misaRwevad (Hill, 2001). rogorc
zemoT avRniSneT, am mimarTebiT, sistemis gamosavali etapis erT-erT
yvelaze xelSesaxeb Sedegs warmoadgenda `Tavisuflebis mxardaWeris aqti~,
romlis azerbaijanisadmi daxmarebis SezRudvis cnobilma 907-e muxlma
kargad warmoaCina yofili sabWoTa respublikebisadmi amgvari
araTanmimdevruli politikis Sedegebi. amave dros, dapirispireba TeTr
saxlsa da sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel aparats Soris uSualod
aisaxa TviT `aqtis~ SemuSavebis procesze (Congress and Foreign Policy:1992, U.S.
House of Representatives, 203rd Congress, p.20).
saerTaSoriso sistemaSi, sadac cvladebi nakleb `radikalurebi~
arian, icvleba sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli aparatis operirebis
modeli. mniSvnelovnad izrdeba aparatis SesaZlebloba Tavad gansazRvros
sakuTari kritikuli amocanebi (uilsonis principebis Tanaxmad). Sesabamisad
izrdeba misi roli sagareo politikis SemuSavebasa da ganxorcielebaSi.
Cvens mier ganxilul aSS-is ekonomikuri aRmavlobis periodSi,
saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebi sagareo politikis istebliSmentze
zemoqmedeben Sidapolitikuri struqturis cvladebTan unisonSi. kerZod,
civi omis dasrulebisa da sparseTis yures omis warmatebiT
ganxorcielebis Semdeg, daZleul iqna e.w. `vietnamis paradigmasTan~
dakavSirebuli demokratiuli partiis Sida ganxeTqileba. aRniSnuli
movlena Sidapolitikuri sistemis ideologiuri struqturis cvladia,
romelic, Tavis mxriv, xels uwyobs demokratulad orientirebuli
93
biurokratiuli aparatisa da demokrati liderebis daaxloebas. swored
amgvar daaxloebaze saubrobda 1997 w. saxelmwifo mdivani v. kristoferi,
rodesac acxadebda istebliSmentis SigniT pasuxismgeblobis delegirebis
Sesaxeb (Christopher, 1997). sagareo politikis aparatis SigniT daaxloebis
erT-erT TvalsaCino magaliTs warmoadgens sruli Tanxmoba erTi mxriv
prezidents, saxelmwifo mdivans da Tavdacvis mdivans Soris, da meore
mxriv, sagareo politikis biurokratias Soris 1999 wlisaTvis `nato~ -s
gafarToebis sakiTxebze. 1 mocemul periodSi aseve ukeTesi TanamSromloba
viTardeba klintonis erovnuli usafrTxoebis mrCevlebs antoni leiks da
Semdgom samuel (sem) bergersa da sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel
aparats Soris. Tumca aq ukve gasaTvaliswinebelia individualuri
faqtorebic, vinaidan orive liders axasiaTebs gamoxatuli loialoba
saxelmwifo departamentis (maTi wina samsaxuris) mimarT da orive cdilobs
xeli Seuwyos demokratuli partiis memarcxene da memarjvene frTebis
daaxloebas. demokratTa erTiani frontis ganmtkicebas aseve cdilobs
saxelmwifo mdivani madlen olbraiti (The Almanac of American Politics, 1994, p.25).
biurokratiul aparatTan TanamSromlobis gaumjobesebis
paralelurad, gamoikveTeba sapirispiro tendenciac, kerZod urTierTobebis
ganviTareba `gamijvnis~ parametrze gasagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel
liderebs Soris. am parametris amoqmedeba gamoikveTa, magaliTad, erTi
mxriv, saxelmwifo mdivan madlen olbraits da Tavdacvis mdivan uiliam
perisa da, meore mxriv, kongresis erT-erT TvalsaCino liders, senatis
samxedro samsaxuris komitetis Tavjdomares sem nans Soris. dapirispireba
viTardeba `nato~ -s gafarToebis imave sakiTxze. 2 rogorc zemoTac
avRniSneT, dapirispireba prezidentis adminsitraciasa da kongresis
liderebs Soris mniSvnelovnad izrdeba partiuli niSniT, 1995 wlis
1 Tumca, `nato~ -s gafarToebis aqtiuri mowinaaRmdege iyo aSS-is yofili elCi moskovSi jek metloki, romelic miiCnevda, rom aRniSnuli iniciativa ruseTSi agresiuli Zalebis aRzevebas gamoiwvevda. 2 wamyvani demokrati senatoris pozicia iTvaliswinebs `nato~ -s gafarToebis `mibmas~ `evrokavSiris~ gafarToebaze, rac prezidentis administraciis mier aRqmulia, rogor `evropa-evropisaTvis~ tipis mikerZoebuli pozicia.
94
respublikuri kongresis mosvlisa da niut gingriCis programuli
dokumentis `kontraqti amerikasTan~ miRebis Semdeg, sadac `nato~ -s sakiTxi
aRniSnuli winaaRmdegobebis erT-erTi qvakuTxedi xdeba. daxmareba yofili
sabWoTa respublikebisadmi TeTr saxlsa da kongresis liderebs Soris
aseve dapirispirebis erT-erT magaliTs warmoadgens (Congressional Quarterly
Weekly, 1999, July 10, pp. 1664-65).
mkveTr gamijvnas TeTr saxlsa da kongresis liderebs Soris
analitikosebi xSirad xsnian TviT respublikuri partiis Sida
uTanxmoebebiT, iseve rogorc respublikelebis axali saxeebiT, romlebic
agresiulad cdiloben sakuTari `dRis wesrigis~ gatarebas (Congressional
Quarterly Weekly, November 28, 1998, p. 3203). davasaxelebT agreTve mniSvnelovan
individualur faqtorsac, rogoric iyo senatis sagareo urTierTobaTa
komitetis Tavjdomaris, jesi helmsis, winaaRmdegobriv figura. Tumca
liderebs Soris `gamijvnis~ mocemuli parametris amoqmedebis ZiriTad
pirobad Cven isev da isev saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebis SedarebiT
nakleb radikalurobas miviCnevT.
ra reJimSi reagirebs aSS-is sagareo politikis sistema sagareo
politikaze pasuxismgebeli istebliSmentis operirebis modelze, sadac,
erTi mxriv, moqmdebs `TanamSromlobis~ parametri sagareo politikaze
pasuxismgebel liderebsa da aparatis biurokratias Soris, xolo meore
mxriv, moqmedebs `gamijvnis~ parametri TviT am liderebs Soris?
SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom ganxiluli periodis saerTaSoriso
sistemis movlenaTa konteqstSi, sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze
Camoyalibebuli politika, SedarebiT winare ganxilul periodTan, ufro
metad operaciuli bunebisaa, Tumca xasiaTdeba meryeobis meti xarisxiT.
SesaZlebelia mtkiceba, rom am ori sibrtyis gadakveTaze miRebuli
politika Tavisi SedegebiT, nakleb sasikeToa ara mxolod sagareo
politikis `obieqti~ saxelmwifos grZelvadiani intersebisTvis, aramed,
TviT aSS-is grZelvadiani erovnuli interesebisTvisac.
95
amgvari cvalebadi politikis nakleb sasurveli Sedegebis erT-erT
magaliTs warmaodgens `evropaSi Cveulebrivi SeiaraRebis~ (CFE)
xelSekruleba, romelmac rigi transformaciebis Semdeg, e.w. `saflango
dokumentis~ ZaliT, sabolood dauSva SeiaraRebis gadanawileba
ruseTisaTvis kritikul zonebSi (kerZod, Crdilo kavkasiaSi) (Flank Document
Agreement to the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty). dokumentis miRebis procesSi
swored rom gamovlinda urTierTqmedeba saerTaSoriso sistemis cvlads -
ruseTis xisti poziciis cvlads - da aSS-is Sidapolitikuri sistemis
cvlads - sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel liderebis gansxvavebuli
poziciebis cvlads - Soris. 1 zogadad, istebliSmentis politika ruseTis
mimarT, erTi mxriv kompromisuli iyo, xolo meore mxriv, kvlav `Sekavebis
politikis~ racionals efuZneboda, rac, Sesabamisad, iwvevda obieqti
saxelmwifos araerTmniSvnelovan reagirebas.
daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom aSS sagareo politikis Sinagani
winaaRmdegobrioba, romelic sxva faqtorebs Soris, gamowveulia sagareo
politikaze pasuxismgebeli istebliSmentis Sida winaaRmdegobriobiT,
Tavisi arsiT, saboloo jamSi, specifiuria amerikuli demokratiuli
mmarTvelobisaTvis, romelic gacilebiT ufro rTuli procesis meSveobiT
axorcielebs qveynis sagareo politikas, vidre nebismieri avtoritaruli
reJimi, an Tundac saparlamento respublika.
*****
amgvarad, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom maSin rodesac aRwerilma
saerTaSoriso sistemam gaafarTova aSS-is sagareo politikis
SesaZleblobebi, aSS-is Sida politikurma sistemam -- sadac gadajaWvulia,
erTi mxriv, sazogadoebrivi ganwyobebis, partiuli orientaciebis,
xelisuflebis Stoebis da politikuri liderebis urTierTqmedebis
faqtorebi da, meore mxriv, mravalmxrivi socialur-ekonomikuri faqtorebi
1 istebliSmentis liderebis mxridan ganusazRvreli iyo agreTve pozicia ruseTis axali prezidentis v. putins mimarTac, sadac, erTi mxriv, gmobdnen putinis politikas CeCneTSi, xolo, meore mxriv, wamoswevdnen mis `liberali reformatoris~ imijs. (CQ Weekly, January 8, 2000, p. 58)
96
-- igi sagrZnoblad SezRuda. zemoT ganxiluli parametrebiT ganpirobebuli
sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis gansxvavebuli reJimebi, romlebic
sistemis dinamikaSi, erTmaneTTan winaaRmdegobaSi modian, an piruku avseben
da aZliereben erTmaneTs, sistemis gamosavalze, yoveli konkretuli
`obieqti~ saxelmwifos mimarT, gansazRvraven rogorc politikis zogad
farTo kurss, aseve ufro konkretul operaciul Tu deklaraciul
Sedegebs. rogorc zemoT iTqva, aRniSnuli Sedegebi kvlav ubrundebian
sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis garemos da warmoqmnian sistemis
Sesavalze arsebul cvladebs.
97
Tavi III
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionireba saqarTvelos damoukidebel saxelmwifod
CamoyalibebasTan mimarTebaSi
winamdebare Tavis mizania vuCvenoT Cvens mier ganxiluli aSS-is
sagareo politikis sistemis operireba drois mocemul monakveTSi
konkretuli `obieqti~ saxelmwifos -- saqarTvelos mimarT. amave dros, Tu
meore TavSi, sadac SevecadeT gagveanalizebina aSS-is sagareo politikis
sistemis funqcionirebis meqanizmi, ZiriTadad veyrdnobodiT Cveni modelis
SemecnebiT-analitikur funqcias, mocemul TavSi, aRniSnul funqciasTan
erTad, daveyrdnobiT prognostul-analitikur funqciasac, romelic
saSualebas mogvcems, erTi mxriv, gavaanalizoT saqarTvelos saSinao da
sagareo politikis erTi garkveuli sakiTxis aSS-is sagareo politikis
sakiTxad Camoyalibebis procesi da, meore mxriv, ganvsazRvroT mocemul
sakiTxze -- da ufro swored mis drosTan adaptirebul variaciaze -- aSS-
is sagareo politikis ganviTarebis SesaZlo mimarTulebebi. kerZod, Cveni
modeli saSualebas gvaZlevs davaxasiaToT, Tu rogor aisaxeba
saerTaSoriso garemosa da aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos gamoyofil
paramatrebze (Y) saqarTvelos saSinao da sagareo politikis garkveuli
parametri da misi Semadgeneli cladebi (X). amgvari asaxvis Sedegebs Cven
ukve ganvixilavT, rogorc (Y) parametrebis axal cvladebs (YX), romlebic
Sesabamis zegavlenas axdenen aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemaze.
drois periodSi, romelSic ganvixilavT Cveni modelis
funqcionirebas da romelic amavdroulad kritikulia Tavad saqarTvelos
saxelmwifoebriobis ganviTarebis TvsalsazrisiT, gamovyofT saqarTvelos
saSinao da sagareo politikis Semdeg urTierTdakavSirebul ZiriTad
parametrebs: `saqarTvelos suverenitetis uzrunvelyofa~ da `saqarTvelos
98
Sida da gare usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofa.~ `saqarTvelos suverenitetis
uzrunvelyofis~ parametrze, Tavis mxriv, gamovyofT or umniSvnelovanes
cvlads - `saqarTvelos brZolas damoukideblobisaTvis ~ da `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobis damkvidrebas;~ xolo `saqarTvelos Sida da gare
usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis~ parametrze gamovyofT sam umniSvnelovanes
cvlads -- `saqarTvelos Sida politikur-ekonomikur stabilurobas,~
`saqarTvelos politikur-eTnikur konfliqtebs~ da `saqarTvelos
urTierTobebs regionalur saxelmwifoebTan." migvaCnia, romAaRniSnuli
parametrebi da maTi Semadgeneli cvladebi yvelaze mniSvnelovania aSS-is
erovnul interesebTan mimarTebaSi, gamomdinare im zogadi konteqstis
mniSvnelobidan, romelic moicavs: samxreT kavkasiis regionis politikur
da samxedro stabilurobas; regionis ekonomikur ganviTarebas da
ideologiur orientacias; da regionis Sida da gare politikur-
ekonomikuri kavSirebis ganviTarebas (Odom and Dujarric, 1995, pp.2-3, p.81;
utiaSvili, 2000, gv.37-60).
am naSromSi, modelis ilustraciis mizniT, Cven gavaanalizebT
mxolod pirvel cvlads - `saqarTvelos brZolas damoukideblobisaTvis,~
romlis asaxvac saerTaSoriso garemosa da aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos
gamoyofil paramatrebze uaRresad winaaRmdegobriv xasiaTs atarebda da
amave dros Seicavda niSandobliv miniSnebebs, rogorc arsebuli
globaluri politikuri reJimis, aseve saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa
Teoriis TvalsazrisiT.
3.1 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi
3.1.1 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis urTierTqmedebebi saerTaSoriso garemos Sreze
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolas~ ganvixilavT, rogorc
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis garemoSi gamoyofil `obieqti
saxelmwifos~ Sris cvlads, romelic pirvel rigSi, urTierTqmedebaSi
Sedis saerTaSoriso garemos im parametrebTan da cvladebTan, romlebic,
99
Tavis mxriv, Seadgenen saerTaSoriso garemos `arastabilurobis~ da
`mouwesrigeblobis~ maxasiaTeblebs. kerZod, upirveles yovlisa, es aris
`komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametri da misi Sesabamisi cvladebi. sabWoTa
kavSirTan mimarTebaSi, `komunizmis damarcxebis~ aRniSnuli parametris
cvladebs Soris, pirvel rigSi, gamovyofT `baltiispireTis respublikebis
mier damoukideblobis gamocxadebas~, `sabWoTa kavSiris centraluri
mTavrobis mier axali sakavSiro xelSekrulebis gaformebis mcdelobas~ da
`putCis Cavardnas~. vTvliT, rom aRniSnuli sami cvladi warmoadgens
sabWoTa kavSirSi komunizmis damarcxebis parametris gansxvavebul
aspeqtebs. amave dros, migvaCnia, rom saerTaSoriso garemos Sreze
`saqarvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis urTierTqmedeba
aRniSnul cvladebTan mniSvnelovnad ganapirobebs saqarTvelos
damoukideblobis sakiTxis aSS-is sagareo politikis sakiTxad formirebas.
3.1.1.1 baltiispireTis respublikebis damoukidebloba
1990 w. baltiispireTis respublikebis mier damoukideblobis
gamocxadebas, rogorc cnobilia, farTo saerTaSoriso rezonansi mohyva da
Tuki gaviTvaliswinebT im faqts, rom aSS-s oficialurad arc arasodes
uRiarebia baltiispireTis iZulebiTi gaerTianeba sabWoTa kavSirSi,
logikuri iqneboda gvevarauda, rom aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis
Sesavalze aRniSnuli faqtori SeiZenda `radikaluri~ cvladis
mniSvnelobas, romelic sistemis gamosaval etapze mniSvnelovan cvlilebebs
gamoiwvevda yvela Sesabamis moTamaSesTan mimarTebaSi. Cven vakeTebT
sapirispiro daskvnas Semdeg msjelobaze dayrdnobiT.
1990 w. Jurnali `kongreSenal kvorterli~ werda, rom litvis mier
damoukideblobis gamocxadebas adgili hqonda erTob uxerxul dros
rogorc sabWoTa kavSirisaTvis, aseve Tavad dasavleTisTvis (Congressional
Quarterly, April 7, 1990). marTlac, litvis moTxovnam warmoaCina gorbaCovis
mTavrobis Sida sirTuleebi, buSisTvis ki, romelic mxars uWerda
gorbaCovis reformebs, am ukanasknelis politikur warmatebas didi
100
mniSvneloba hqonda sakuTari Sidapolitikuri poziciebis gasamtkiceblad.
arsebobda mosazrebac, rom gorbaCovis interesebis gaTvaliswinebiT, buSi
imisTvisac ki iyo mzad, rom daeTmo litvis damoukidebloba (PPipes, Hearing
before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on European Affairs, 1991, p.42). kerZod, moskovis da
litvis dapirispirebis Taobaze, buSi acxadebda, rom aSS-is sagareo
politika ar iyo mimarTuli gorbaCovsa da landsbergiss Soris arCevanis
gakeTebaze; aSS mxars uWerda erTa TviTgamorkvevas, magram misTvis
upirvelesi mniSvneloba am procesis mSvidobian warmarTvas hqonda. igive
pozicia Camoayaliba buSma latviis damoukideblobis mopovebis procesis
mimarTac; aSS-is mTavrobis erTaderTi rCeva iqneboda dialogis warmarTva
moskovTan, romelSic aSS ver Seasrulebda Suamavlis rols (Congressional
Quarterly, May 5, 1990). sagulisxmoa, rom mas Semdegac ki, rodesac gorbaCovma
tankebi gagzavna vilniusSi, kongresma miiRo rezolucia, romelic sakmaod
rbilad akritikebda mis qmedebas. zogierTi eqsperti imasac ki miiCnevda,
rom aSS-m da sabWoTa kavSirma miaRwies farul SeTanxmebas, romlis
Tanaxmadac aSS sityvierad Searbilebda Tavis pozicias baltiispireTis
Taobaze, iqidan sabWoTa jarebis gamoyvanisa da sparseTis yureSi sabWoTa
mxardaWeris sanacvlod. amgvari kompromisi harvardis universitetis
mkvlevaris n. goldmanis mier Sefasebuli iyo, rogorc administraciis
`moqnili xelovneba~ (Congressional Quarterly, February 2, 1991)
1991 w. 2 seqtembris preskonferenciaze, sadac buSma oficialurad
ganacxada baltiispireTis respublikebis cnobis Sesaxeb, 1 man kidev
erTxel gamoxata gorbaCovis mxrdaWera da ganacxada, rom baltiispireTis
precendenti ar gulisxmobda aSS-is analogiur pozicias sxva
respublikebisadmi. TiToeuli respublikis sakiTxs aSS ganixilavda
damoukideblad, respublikebsa da centrs Soris urTierTobebis garkvevis
kvaldakval (Congressional Quarterly, September 7, 1991).
1 sagulisxmoa, rom buSs meti dro dasWirda, raTa sruli diplomatiuri aRiareba mieniWebina baltiispireTis respublikebisaTvis, SedarebiT dasavleTis sxva saxelmwifoebTan, romelTac putCis CavardnisTanave scnes baltiispireTis respublikebis damoukidebloba.
101
zemoaRniSnulidan gamomdinare, SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom
marTalia baltiispireTis movlenebis cvlads, sistemis gamosaval etapze
sabolood mohyva Tvisobrivad axali Sedegi, anu baltiispireTis
respublikebTan, rogorc suverenul saxelmwifoebTan, diplomatiuri
urTierTobebis damyareba, damoukideblobis mopovebisTvis mebrZol sxva
respublkebTan mimarTebaSi, igi ar warmoadgenda `radikalur~ cvlads,
vinaidan maTTan damokidebulebaSi mas arsebiTad ar Seucvlia aSS-is
politikis ZiriTadi mimarTuleba -- sabWoTa kavSiris erTiani (Tumca
transformirebuli) struqturis SenarCunebis mcdeloba.
3.1.1.2 sakavSiro xelSekruleba
rogorc cnobilia, gorbaCovis mTavrobis mier axali sakavSiro
xelSekrulebis Taobaze 1991 w. aprilis gadawyvetilebis miRebas win
uZRoda 1991 w. martis centraluri mTavrobis referendumi, sabWoTa
kavSiris, `rogorc Tanabaruflebiani suverenuli respublikebis
ganaxlebuli federaciis,~ SenarCunebis Sesaxeb. miuxedavad referendumis
sakmaod orazrovani xasiaTisa, rac sakmaod mZafrad iyo warmoCenili
kongresis mosmenebze, 1 mas istebliSmentis mkafio reaqcia ar mohyolia.
erTaderT gamonaklisad SeiZleba CaiTvalos kongresis `evropaSi
usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~ komisiis moxseneba, romelSic
referendumi warmodgenilia, rogorc respublikebiT manipulirebis
`unayofo mcdeloba~. Tumca amave moxsenebaSi xazgasmulia, rom amgvar
Tundac warumatebel referendums SeuZlia dasabami daudos `realur
molaparakebebs~ centrsa da respublikebs Soris arsebuli
winaaRmdegobebis dasaZlevad (Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 1991).
1 mxedvelobaSi gvaqvs kongresis warmomadgenelTa palatis sagareo saqmeTa komitetis evropisa da axlo aRmosavleTis, adamianis uflebebis da saerTaSoriso organizaciebis qvekomitetebis mosmenebi, romlebic uSualod mieZRvna sabWoTa referendumis Temas da mis orazrovan mniSvnelobas demokratizaciis procesisaTvis. (Referendum in the Soviet Union: Implications for Democratization. Hearing before the Subcommittees on Europe and the Middle East and on Human
102
amgvar fonze savsebiT logikuria, rom buSis administraciam mxari
dauWira 1991 w. 23 aprilis gadawyvetilebas ruseTsa da 9 respublikas
Soris, e.w. `1+9~ SeTanxmebis miRwevis Taobaze. rogorc ambobda saxelmwifo
mdivani j. beikeri, axali sakavSiro xelSekrulebisa da axali
konstituciis meSveobiT, sabWoTa kavSirSi Seiqmneboda axali politikuri
legitimurobis miRwevis SesaZlebloba (Baker, 1991, p. 682).
amgvarad, marTalia erTi mxriv, aSS-is politikuri istebliSmentis
mier xelSekrulebis mxardaWeris politika SeiZleba warmoCenili iyos,
rogorc im winaaRmdegobis moxsna, romelic arsebobda gorbaCovis
mTavrobasTan TanamSromlobasa da respublikebis demokratiuli Zalebis
mxardaWeras Soris -- rogorc amas, magaliTad, amtkicebs `rend
korporeiSenis~ specialisti arnold horeliki (Horelick, 1991, p.90 ) --
migvaCnia, rom realurad igi asaxavda centraluri mTavrobisa da erTiani
sabWoTa kavSiris struqturis SenarCunebis xelSewyobis politikas,
respublikebSi `separatistuli~ moZraobebis ganviTarebis sapirispirod.
amgvarad, damoukideblobisaTvis mebrZol respublikebTan mimarTebaSi,
axali sakavSiro xelSekrulebis miRebis mcdeloba, warmoadgens susti
`radikalurobis~ matarebel cvlads, romlis zemoqmedebac aSS-is sagareo
politikis sistemis gamosaval etapze aisaxeba aSS-is xelisuflebis mier
sabWoTa kavSiris transformaciis am yvelaze sasurveli scenaris
mxardaWeraSi (Carpenter, 1991, p.38; Fairbanks, 2000, piradi interviu).
3.1.1.3 putCi
1991 w. 19-21 agvistos `putCis~ movlenebi Cvens mier ganixileba,
rogorc `radikaluri" cvladi, romelsac aSS-is sagareo politikuri
sistemis gamosavalze mniSvnelovani Sedegebi mohyva yvela sabWoTa
respublikasTan mimarTebaSi. `putCis~ dramatulma Cavardnam cxadyo
Rights and International Organizations of the Committee on Foreign Affairs House of Representatives, One Hundred Second Congress, First Session, March 13, 1991, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington: 1991)
103
komunisturi reJimis sruli gabankroteba da dasabami daudo politikuri
aqcentebis respublikebze gadanacvlebas.
rogorc cnobilia, `putCs~ win uZRoda boris elcinis ivnisis viziti
vaSingtonSi, rodesac gansxvavebiT TeTri saxlis administraciisagan 1 ukve
sakmaod naTlad gamoikveTa kongresis gaZlierebuli yuradReba
respublikebisadmi (Congressional Quarterly, June 22, 1991). amave dros, `putCis~
Cavardnis Semdeg, buSis davalebiT moskovSi saswrafod Camodis j. beikeri,
romelic acxadebs, rom aSS-is survilia iTanaSromlos elcinTan da
sabWoTa kavSiris sxva mowinave reformatorebTan qveynis politikuri da
ekonomikuri transformaciis xelSewyobis mizniT (US Department of State
Dispatch, September 16, 1991). Tumca, is ZiriTadi problema, romelic kvlavac
rCeba politikuri istebliSmentis winaSe, isev da isev sabWoTa kavSiris
fragmentacia da respublikebis xelisuflebis legitimurobaa (Zoellick,
October 2, 1991, US Department of State Dispatch, October 7, 1991).
uSualod saqarTvelosTan mimarTebaSi, `putCis~ faqtors sakmaod
orazrovani mniSvneloba hqonda. erTi mxriv, rogorc yvela danarCen
respublikasTan mimarTebaSi, `putCma~ uCvena komunisturi reJimis
dabrunebis saSiSroeba da, Sesabamisad, meti legitimuroba SesZina
damoukideblobis moZraobas; magram meore mxriv, `putCma~ arasasurvel
SuqSi warmoaCina saqarTvelos imJamindeli xelisufleba, romlis poziciac
mis mimarT sakmaod konformistuli aRmoCnda.
*****
migvaCnia, rom aSS sagareo politikis sistemis saerTaSoriso garemos
Sreze, `komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametris sami cvladis --
`baltiispireTis respublikebis damoukideblobis,~ `sakavSiro
xelSekrulebis,~ da `putCis~ -- urTierTqmedeba `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladTan, erTi mxriv, akninebs sakuTriv
saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis sakiTxis mniSvnelobas
1 vizitis dros buSma araorazrovnad ganucxada elcins, rom aSS kvlavac SeinarCunebda maqsimalurad axlo oficialur urTierTobebs gorbaCovis mTavrobasTan.
104
sabWoTa kavSiris erTiani struqturis SenarCunebis sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi,
da, meore mxriv, eWvqveS ayenebs mis TavisTavad Rirebulebas WeSmariti
demokratiulobis TvalsazrisiT. Sesabamisad, amgvari urTierTqmedebis
rogorc obieqturi aseve subieqturi Sedegebi xels uwyobs `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis uaryofiT asaxvas Cveni modelis
meore -- aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos Sreze.
3.1.2 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis
urTierTqmedebebi Sidapolitikur Sreze
migvaCnia, rom Cvens mier aRwerili modelis Sidapolitikur Sreze,
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi, pirvel rigSi,
urTierTqmedebaSi Sedis ideologiuri struqturis parametrebTan da
cvladebTan. ganvixiloT aRniSnuli urTierTqmedebani Cveni modelis
funqcionirebis Tanaxmad.
3.1.2.1 masmedia da sazogadoebrivi azri
rogorc vuCveneT kvlevis meTodologiur nawilSi, drois periodSi,
romelic xasiaTdeba aSS-is Sidapolitikuri Sris socialur-ekonomikuri
struqturis negatiuri parametrebiT (ekonomikuri zrdis Senelebuli tempi,
savaWro da sabiujeto tyupi deficitebi), mediis `intensiuri gaSuqebis~ da
sazogadoebrivi azris `konsolidaciis~ parametrebze ZiriTadad qveynis
Sida politikur-ekonomikuri sakiTxebi eqcevian. aseve vuCveneT, rom
mediaSi saerTaSoriso garemos movlenaTa gaSuqeba ZiriTadad asaxavs
saerTaSoriso garemos ganviTarebas `mouwesrigeblobis,~
`arastabilurobis~ da `dezintegraciis~ Sesabamisi parametrebis mixedviT,
rac, Tavis mxriv, ar uwyobs xels sazogadoebrivi azris konsolidirebas
saerTaSoriso movlenebSi aSS-is intensiuri monawileobis Taobaze. anu,
sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, saerTaSoriso garemosTan mimarTebaSi,
105
sazogadoebrivi azris ganviTareba mimdinareobs `gafantulobis~
parametrze.
migvaCnia, rom `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi
swored rom sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ da mediis `wyvetili~
gaSuqebis amgvar parametrebze aisaxeba, sadac TviT sabWoTa kavSiris
calkeul respublikebad daSlis perspeqtivac ki ar iwvevs sazogadoebrivi
azris Sesabamis fokusirebas. sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis periodSi aSS-Si
Catarebuli gamokiTxvebi uCveneben, rom mosaxleobis did nawils ar hqonda
gaazrebuli, Tu ra mniSvneloba SeiZleba hqonoda sabWoTa sistemis
politikur da ekonomikur dezintegracias, rogorc Tavad aSS-is, aseve
globaluri usafrTxoebis TvalsazrisiT (Congressional Quarterly, June 8, 1991).
amgvar fonze, is mwiri informaciac, romelic Cndeba presaSi saqarTvelos
damoukideblobasTan mimarTebaSi negatiuri Sinaarsia da ZiriTadad moicavs
sam Temas. es Temebia: 1. `nacionalisti lideri~ gamsaxurdias dapirispireba
ruseTTan. am Temis konteqstSi gaSuqebulia ori ZiriTadi sakiTxi:
saqarTvelos uari monawileoba miiRos damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa
Tanamegobrobis SeqmnaSi; da ruseTis dadanaSauleba saqarTvelos
Sidapolitikuri konfliqtebis inspirirebaSi. 2. gamsaxurdias
dapirispireba dasavleTTan. am Temis konteqstSi ZiriTadad gaSuqebulia
gamsaxurdias braldeba aSS-is mimarT saqarTvelos damoukideblobis
winaaRmdeg konspiraciaSi. 3. damoukideblobis mopovebis procesSi `brZola
qarTvelebs Soris.~ am Temis farglebSi gaSuqebulia gamsaxurdias
dapirispireba Sidapolitikur opoziciasTan. 1
1 mocemuli analizi efuZneba Semdeg sagazeTo publikaciebs: Eleven Republics Lay USSR to Rest, Wall Street Journal , December 23, 1991; Georgia Leader Says Kremlin Stirring Unrest, The Atlanta Constitution, February 7, 1991; Kremlin Role Questioned in Georgian Ethnic Strife, New York Times Current Events Edition, February 10, 1991; Civil Strife: Soviet Georgia Is Torn By Groups Competing In Independence Drive, Wall Street Journal, February 21, 1991; Georgian Nationalist Wins Election, May 28, 1991; Georgians Blast Leader, Chicago Tribune, September 9, 1991; Leaders Show their Old Habits, New York Times Current Events Edition, September 18, 1991; Soviet Georgians Feud Fights, USA Today, September 20, 1991; Soviet Georgian Police Beat Up Dissidents, USA Today, September 22, 1991; Georgia Chief Alleges U.S.-Soviet Conspiracy, The Washington Post, September 11, 1991.
106
saqarTvelosTan SedarebiT, damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis sakiTxi
ufro pozitiurad aris gaSuqebuli azerbaijanTan da, gansakuTrebiT,
somxeTTan mimarTebaSi, sadac wamoweulia Semdegi Temebi: azerbaijanis
prezidentis mutalibovis mzadyofna monawileoba mieRo dsT-s
Camoyalibebis procesSi; somxeTis umaRlesi sabWos mier damoukideblobis
deklaraciis damtkiceba saerTo saxalxo referendumis Semdgom; somxeTis
pirveli demokratiulad arCeuli prezidentis ter-petrosianis mzadyofna
respublikis sruli damoukideblobis misaRwevad; ter-petrosianis viziti
vaSingtonSi da saubari prezident buSTan aSS-is mier somxeTis
damoukideblobis aRiarebis Taobaze; 1
vTvliT, rom mediaSi samxreT kavkasiis danarCeni ori respublikis
Sesabamisi problemebis gaSuqebis SedarebiT dadebiTi konteqsti, uaryofiT
kontrastSi warmoaCens sakuTriv saqarTvelos problematikas.
saqarTvelos damoukideblobis sakiTxis amerikul mediaSi asaxul sam
ZiriTad zemoaRniSnul Temas Cven ganvixilavT, rogorc mediis `wyvetili
gaSuqebis~ parametris Semadgenel sam cvlads, romlebic, Tavis mxriv,
ganapirobeben `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis aSS-
is sagareo politikis sakiTxad Camoyalibebas.
Cvens xelT arsebuli informaciiT, drois mocemuli periodisaTvis,
ar arsebobs sazogadoebrivi azris gamokiTxvis monacemebi uSualod
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi.
Tumca, Cveni modeliT gaTvaliswinebuli korelacia masmediisa da
sazogadoebrivi azris Sesabamis parametrebs Soris iZleva evristuli
daskvnis gakeTebis saSualebas -- anu, mediis mier `saqarTvelos
1 gamoyofili Temebi efuZneba Semdeg sagazeTo publikaciebs: Moldova , Azerbaijan Bring 11 Republics Behind Commonwealth, Boston Globe, December 21, 1991; Azerbaijan Suspicious of Commonwealth Plan, The Washington Post, December 15, 1991; Armenia Declares Independence, The Los Angeles Times, September 24, 1991; Democratic Spirit Sweeps Armenia, Christian Science Monitor, October 17, 1991; Leader Vows Secession As Armenians Go to Polls, Boston Globe, October 17, 1991; Armenian Leader Seeks Recognition of Republic by Bush, Christian Science Monitor, November 14, 1991; Bush Tells Armenian Leader U.S. Seeks Relationship, The Washington Post, November 15, 1991.
107
damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ negatiuri Sinaarsis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~
parametri, garkveul wilad, aseve gulisxmobs aRniSnul sakiTxze
sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ parametris amoqmedebasac. aseve
evristul doneze miviCnevT, rom amgvari `gafatulobis~ parametric Tavisi
Sinaarsobrivi datvirTviT negatiuria. anu, amerikuli sazogadoebis im
nawilisaTvis, romelic ecnoba presis mimoxilvebs, `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobisaTvis brZola~ ZiriTad mis Sida da gare konfliqtebTan
aris asocirebuli.
aSS sazogadoebrivi azris amgvari, Tundac hipoteturi pozicia, Cvens
mier ganixileba, rogorc sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ parametris
cvladi, romelic, garkveul wilad, gansazRvravs `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis aSS-is sagareo politikis
sakiTxad Camoyalibebas.
3.1.2.2 specialuri interesebi
rogorc avRniSneT Cveni kvlevis meTodologiur nawilSi, specialuri
interesebis `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametri umetes wilad korelaciaSia
mediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~ da sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~
parametrebTan.
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi ar aisaxeba
interesTa jgufebis `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametrze, anu sabWoTa
kavSiris daSlis periodisaTvis, Cvens xelT arsebuli monacemebiT,
aRniSnuli sakiTxi ar warmaodgens romelime organizebuli jgufis
lobirebis sagans. 1 meore mxriv, Tu specialuri intersebis kategoriidan
calke gamovyofT adamianis uflebebze momuSave arasamTavrobo
1 Tumca, jer kidev 1921 wels kanzaseli kongresmeni edvard liTeli aSS-is ruseTTan megobruli urTierTobebis damyarebis wil, moiTxovda somxeTidan, azerbaijanidan da saqarTvelodan ruseTis `okupaciuri jarebis~ gayvanas; 1926 da 1954 wlebSi saqarTvelos damoukideblobis sakiTxs mieZRvna kongrsis warmomadgenelTa palatis ori sakomiteto mosmena; da Semdgom, 1969 wels `amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi saqarTvelos asociaciam~ gamarTa saqarTvelos mier damoukideblobis gamocxadebis 50 wlisTavisaTvis miZRvnili konferencia.
108
organizaciebs, analitikuri centrebsa da akademiuri wreebis
warmomadgenlebs, udaod gamoikveTeba garkveuli zemoqmedeba, gansakuTrebiT
politikur istebliSmentTan mimarTebaSi. Tumca aq aRsaniSnavia is faqti,
rom aRniSnuli interesebis fokusSi saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis
brZolis sakiTxi ar warmoadgens gamokveTilad calke mdgom sakiTxs, da
warmoCenilia sabWoTa respublikebis erovnul-ganmanTavisuflebeli
moZraobebis ufro farTo konteqstSi. migvaCnia, rom erovnul-
ganmanTavisuflebel moZraobebTan dakavSirebiT, arasamTvrobo
organizaciebis, analitikuri centrebis da akademiuri wreebis, iseve
rogorc maT mier gaSualebuli politikuri istebliSmentis TvalTaxedvas
ori mimarTuleba axasiaTebs:
a) pirveli mimarTuleba dasabams iRebs 1970-iani wlebis Sua
periodidan, rodesac vietnamis omisa da `uotergeitis~ fonze, aSS-is
sagareo politikis wina planze gamoikveTeba e.w. `moralisturi~ aspeqti da
adamianis uflebebis dacvis sakiTxi gansakuTrebul mniSvnelobas iZens. 1
swored adamianis uflebebis problemis gagrZelebad iyo aRqmuli
sabWoTa respublikebis 1990-iani wlebis brZola erovnuli
TviTgamorkvevisTvis amerikeli analitikosebis da politikosebis erTi
nawilis mier (Raanan, 1990, pp.45-47; Seitz, 1990, pp.73-75). ukve 1989 w.
warmomadgenelTa palatis sagareo urTierTobaTa komitetis adamianis
uflebaTa da saerTaSoriso organizaciebis qvekomitetis mosmenaze
aRiniSneboda, rom somxeTis, saqarTvelos da azerbaijanis e.w. erovnuli
sakiTxebi ar unda yofiliyo aRqmuli, rogorc `eTnikuri problemebi~, an
`socialuri uwesrigobani~, vinaidan sinamdvileSi isini warmoadgendnen
brZolas erovnuli TviTgamorkvevisaTvis, romelic iseve imsaxurebda aSS-is
mxardaWeras, rogorc amas imsaxurebda adamianis uflebebis dacvis
moZraoba `perestroikis~ dawyebamde (Thorne, 1989, pp.164-165). harvardis
1 rogorc cnobilia, 1975 w. prezidenti fordi, dasavleTis mokavSireebTan erTad, xels awers `helsinkis daskvniT aqts,~ romlis debulebebis udidesi nawili adamianis uflebebis dacvas eZRvneba. amave dros, am debulebebiT gansazRvruli saerTaSoriso standartebi didwilad mimarTuli iyo sabWoTa represiuli praqtikis SezRudvaze.
109
universitetis profesori riCard paipsi axsenebda amerikel kongresmenebs,
rom Tuki aSS mxars uWerda sabWoTa kavSiris demokratizacias, misi daSla
dadebiTi movlena unda yofiliyo, vinaidan demokratiuli Zalebi
moqmedebdnen ara sakavSiro, aramed respublikur doneze da sabWoTa
kavSiridan gamoyofa swored am demokratiul Zalebs surdaT (Pipes, 1991,
p.42). `adamianis uflebebis dacvis saerTaSoriso ligis~ mier
warmomadgenelTa palatis adamianis uflebebis dacvis qvekomitetisadmi
wardgenil moxsenebaSi aRniSnulia, rom marTalia sabWoTa konstitucia
respublikebs aniWebs gamoyofis uflebas, igi realurad ganuxorcielebadia
(International League for Human Rights, 1989, pp.4-5). bostonis universitetis
profesori uri raanani kiTxvis niSnis qveS ayenebs sabWoTa kavSiris
daSliT gamowveuli SesaZlo destabilizaciis yvelaze xmamaRal
argumentebs, amtkicebs ra, rom imperiul sabWoTa saxelmwifosTan
SedarebiT, damoukidebeli saqarTvelo, an damoukidebeli litva ar
Seuqmnis muqaras saerTaSoriso sazogadoebriobas (Raanan, 1991, p.50).
Tumca, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom ukanaskneli Tvalsazrisis gamoklebiT,
gamoyofili poziciis farglebSic ki, aSS-is urTierTobebi respublikebTan
moiazreba, rogorc moskovis centralur mTavrobasTan damyarebuli
urTierTobebis Semavsebeli, da ara Semcvleli mimarTuleba (Carpenter, 1991,
p.42; Simes, 1991, pp. 462-463).
kerZod, kongresis mosmenebze gamoTqmuli rekomendaciebi
respublikebTan mimarTebaSi Semdegnaerad SeiZleba davajgufoT:
- centrTan konstruqciuli urTierTobebis SenarCunebis paralelurad,
aSS-ma unda ganaxorcielos pirdapiri daxmareba im respublikebisadmi,
sadac xelisuflebaSi demokratiuli gziT arCeuli xelmZRvaneloba
movida.
- sabWoTa kavSiris saerTaSoriso organizaciebSi gawevrianebis
mxardaWeris paralelurad, aSS-ma unda gaiziaros respublikebis
survili gawevriandnen saerTaSoriso savaluto fondsa da sxva
110
saerTaSoriso organizaciebSi. aSS eqsport-import banksa da `opiks~
(sazRvargareT kerZo investirebis korporacias) aseve unda mieces
rekomendaciebi mxari dauWiron calkeuli proeqtebis ganxorcielebas
respublikebSi.
- aSS-is pozicia Tavisufali vaWrobis ganviTarebis Sesaxeb, unda
iTvaliswinebdes centralur evropas, baltispireTs da kavkasiis
respublikebs.
- gorbaCovis `zemodan-qvemoT~ demokratizaciis kursis mxardaWeris
paralelurad, aSS-ma mxari unda dauWiros demokratizacias `qvemodan-
zemoT~ da xeli Seuwyos respublikebis doneze pluralistuli
sazogadoebis ganviTarebas.
amgvarad, xazi gvinda gavusvaT, rom respublikebis mxardamWeri
zemoaRniSnuli rekomendaciebi amave dros gaweuli iyo centraluri
mTavrobis mxardaWeris konteqstSi.
b) meore mimarTuleba efuZneba aSS-is mier sabWoTa kavSiris
teritoriuli mTlianobis aRiarebas, xolo respublikebis swrafvas
damoukideblobisadmi afasebs rogorc nacionalistur, separatistul
moZraobas.
1990 w. senatis sakomiteto mosmenaze gamosvlisas, z. bJezinski
acxadebs, rom erovnuli sakiTxi sabWoTa kavSirSi sul ufro mZafri xdeba
da aisaxeba ara mxolod moskovis politikur debatebSi, aramed fizikur
ZaladobaSic (Bzezinski, 1990, p.6). SeiZleba iTqvas, rom aRniSnuli erovnuli
problema, rogorc akademiuri, aseve politikuri wreebis warmoamdgenelTa
umravlesobis mier gaigivebulia destruqciul nacionalizmTan,
gansxavvebiT civiluri, aRmSenebluri nacionalizmisagan, romelic
dasavleTis damaxasiaTebel niSnad aris miCneuli. sabWoTa nacionalizmis
aRzevebis ZiriTad mizezad moiazreba is, rom gorbaCovis mier globaluri
klasobrivi brZolis ideis uaryofis Sedegad, komunizmis idea Secvala
nacionalizmis ideam, rogorc xalxebis TviTidentifikaciis erTaderTma
saSualebam. amave dros, gansxvavebiT dasavleTis nacionalizmisagan,
111
romelic gawonasworebulia sagareo savaWro-ekonomikuri urTierTobebiT,
ekonomikuri siduxWire da brZola arasakmarisi resursebisaTvis amZafrebs
sabWoTa nacionalizms. sabWoTa nacionalizmis aRzeveba aseve pirdapir aris
dakavSirebuli da xSirad gaigivebuli eTnikuri winaaRmdegobebis
gamwvavebasTan, ris gamomwvev ZiriTad mizezebad moiazreba:
- centris mxridan disidenturi Tvalsazrisebis devnis Sewyveta;
- sabWoTa kavSiris ekonomikuri krizisi da misi Semdgomi gamwvaveba
eTnikur niadagze. 1
zemoaRniSnulis fonze, politikur debatebSi nacionalizmis sakiTxi
ZiriTadad daxasiaTebulia, rogorc muqara sabWoTa kavSiris
stabilurobisadmi.
1991 w. warmomadgenelTa palatis erT-erT mosmenaze gamoikveTa
mosazreba, rom maSin rodesac gorbaCovis mier SemoTavazebuli axali
sakavSiro xelSekruleba icavda respublikebSi mcxovrebi erovnuli
umciresobebis uflebebs, srulebiTac ar iyo cxadi, rom, sabWoTa kavSiris
daSlis SemTxvevaSi, aRniSnuli uflebebi aseve daculi iqneboda calkeuli
respublikebis mier. mosazreba efuZneboda arguments, rom kerZod samxreT
kavkasiis respublikebSi (saqarTvelos konkretuli miTiTebiT), nacionaluri
ganwyobebis aRzevebas mohyva represiebi erovnuli umciresobebis mimarT
(Carpenter, 1991, pp. 32-33). 1991 w. madlen olbraiti (im periodSi `erovnuli
politikisa da kvleviTi centris~ prezidenti) kongresis erT-erT mosmenaze
acxadebda, rom sabWoTa kavSiris romelime erTi jgufis uflebebis cnobas
SeeZlo muqara Seeqmna sxva jgufebis uflebebisadmi, rogorc, kerZod, es
xdeboda saqarTveloSi, somxeTsa da azerbaijanSi (Albright, 1991, p. 483).
amgvarad, moiazreba, rom sabWoTa kavSiris daSlas Tan axlavs
calkeuli respublikebis farglebSi da, pirvel rigSi, samxreT kavkasiis
respublkebSi, erovnul umciresobaTa uflebebis Selaxvis realuri
saSiSroeba. aRiniSneba isic, rom erovnuli moZraobis talRaze mosuli
zogierTi respublikis lideri ufro metad dainteresebulia Zalauflebis
112
mopovebiT, vidre pluralisturi demokratiuli sazogadoebis
ganviTarebiT. gamomdinare aRniSnuli poziciidan, erovnuli moZraobisa da
eTnikuri konfliqtebis pirispir, centraluri xelisufleba aRiqmeboda,
rogorc politikuri, regionaluri da ekonomikuri stabilurobis
xelSemwyobi Zala (Soviet Disunion: The American Response, 1991, p.40). centraluri
mTavrobis mxardasaWerad, akademiur wreebSi gamoiTqmeboda mosazrebac, rom
gorbaCovis bolodroindeli qmedebebi ganpirobebuli iyo ara imdenad
komunisturi memarjvene flangis zewoliT, ramdenadac misi sakuTari
mcdelobiT moqceuliyo `slavuri eleqtoratis~ ZiriTad nakadSi. xolo
saxelmwifo mrCevlis r. zoelikis gancxadebiT, gorbaCovma airCia
memarjvene kursi, raTa SeenarCunebina sabWoTa kavSiri da aRedgina wesrigi
reformebis `gadasarCenad.~ zoeliki am kurss `avtokratuli reformebis~
kurss uwodebs, anu kurss, rodesac saxelmwifo mimarTavs mkacr zomebs
socialur-ekonomikuri modernizaciis misaRwevad (Zoelic, 1991, pp.11-19).
rogorc avRniSneT, gamoyofili Tvalsazrisis erT-erT ZiriTad
safuZvels warmoadgens aSS-is mier sabWoTa kavSiris teritoriuli
mTlianobis aRiareba. rogorc daadastura warmomadgenelta palatis
sgareo saqmeTa komitetis mosmenaze saxelmwifo mdivnis moadgilem r.
seizma, baltiispireTis respublikebis gamoklebiT, aSS-is politika sabWoTa
kavSiris respublikebis mimarT efuZneba: 1. 1933 w. sabWoTa kavSiris
teritoriuli mTlianobis cnobas da masTan diplomatiuri urTierTobebis
damyarebas; 2 da 2. 1975 w. helsinkis SeTanxmebiT, aSS-is mier arsebuli
sabWoTa sazRvrebis dadasturebas (Seitz, 1990, p.73). Sesabamisad, gamomdinare
aRniSnuli poziciidan, urTierTqmedeba sabWoTa kavSiris centralur
mTavrobasa da mis `teritoriul erTeulebs~ Soris xasiaTdeba, rogorc
sabWoTa kavSiris Sidasaxelmwifoebrivi saqme, romelic `demokratiuli
procesis safuZvelze~ unda gadawydes (Bzezinski, 1990, p.6).
1 sagulisxmoa, rom eTnikur dapirispirebebze msjelobisas, kongresis mosmenebze, pirvel rigSi, kavkasiis magaliTi mohyavT. 2 rogorc cnobilia, am periodSi aranairad ar dasmula sabWoTa kavSiris Semadgeneli respublikebis statusis sakiTxi.
113
amgvarad, erovnul-ganmanTavisuflebeli moZraobebisadmi
arasamTavrobo organizaciebis, analitikuri cenrebisa da akademiuri
wreebis arniSnul or pozicias Cven ganvixilavT, rogorc maTi mxridan
politikur istebliSmentze sakmaod `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametris
cvladebs, romlebic, Tavis mxriv, xels uwyoben `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis aSS-is sagareo politikis
sakiTxad Camoyalibebas.
3.1.2.3 politikuri istebliSmneti
Cveni kvlevis meTodologiur nawilSi, vuCveneT, rom drois im
periodisTvis, romelic xasiaTdeba aSS-is Sidapolitikuri sistemis
negatiuri socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebiT, moqmedebs `TanamSromlobis~
parametri istebliSmentis samive komponentis liderebs Soris, magram
moqmedebs `gamijnulobis~ parametri, erTi mxriv, TeTri saxlis da
kongresis liderebs da, meore mxriv, sagareo politikis aparatis
SedarebiT ufro dabali rgolis biurokratias Soris. amgvari
urTierTmimarTebebi, Tavis mxriv, korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso sistemis im
parametrebTan da cvladebTan, romlebic Seadgenen `mouwesrigeblobis~ da
`arastabilurobis~ maxasiaTeblebs, kerZoT ki, -- `komunizmis damarcxebis~
da `arastabilurobis axali kerebis warmoqmnis~ parametrebTan da maT
Sesabamis `radikaluri~ mniSvnelobis cvladebTan. aseve vuCveneT, rom
istebliSmentis sami `Stos~ liderebs Soris `TanamSromlobis~ parametri
korelaciaSia partiebis `saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametrTan; xolo
ganxilul konkretul SemTxvevaSi, specialuri interesebis (arasamTavrobo
organizaciebis da analitikuri centrebis) politikur istebliSmentze
`Zlieri zemoqmedebis~ parametri aseve korelaciaSia istebliSmentis
`TanamSromlobis~ parametrTan. orive SemTxvevaSi, dadebiTi korelacia
ganpirobebulia zemoT xsenebul saerTaSoriso sistemis parametrebiT.
114
migvaCnia, rom `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi
(da misi Semadgeneli konkretuli faqtorebi), swored rom warmoadgens
amgvari `radikaluri~ mniSvnelobis matarebel cvlads, romelic aisaxeba
politikuri istebliSmentis liderebis `TanamSromlobis~ parametrze.
Tumca msgavsad `specialuri interesebis~ SemTxvevisa, aqac saqarTvelos
damoukideblobis sakiTxi dgeba ara imdenad, rogorc erTi calkeuli
respublikis sakiTxi, ramdenadac rogorc Tavad sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis
gacilebiT ufro farTo da mwvave sakiTxi (Henning, 2000; Enders, 2000, piradi
interviu). ganvixiloT, Tu rogor aisaxeba sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis
sakiTxi, da mis konteqstSi saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis
sakiTxi, politikuri istebliSmentis `TanamSromlobis~ parametrze.
sabWoTa kavSirSi mimdinare dezintegraciuli procesebis fonze, aSS-
is analitikosebis da politikuri istebliSmentis mier aqtiurad ixileba
sabWoTa kavSiris ganviTarebis SesaZlo scenarebi. gamovyofT oTx maTgans,
roemlTac mocemul pariodSi albaTobis sakmao xarisxi gaaCndaT: 1.
`perestroikis~ bolo periodis `zigzagebis~ proecireba reformebisa da
represiebis kursis monacvleobaze. mosalodnelia Zalis gamoyeneba
`separatistuli~ respublikebis mimarT. 2. sabWoTa kavSiris evoluciuri
gziT ganviTareba, romelic moqnili federaluri struqturebis
Camoyalibebiskenaa mimarTuli. 3. xelisuflebaSi Zlieri Sovinisturi
ruseTis ideiT SeiaraRebuli represiuli Zalebis mosvla. saerTaSoriso
asparezze es Zalebi cdiloben dakarguli sabWoTa poziciebis dabrunebas.
4. sabWoTa kavSiris daSla `balkanizirebul~ respublikebad, avtonomiur
olqebad da regionebad, sadac TiToeuli maTgani amyarebs sakuTar
xelisuflebas da wyvets TanamSromlobas yofil partniorebTan.
mosalodnelia ltolvilTa masobrivi migraciebi da arastabilurobis
gavrceleba aRmosavleT evropisa da samxreTis muslimanuri saxelmwifoebis
mimarTulebiT (Allison, Blackwill, 1991, pp.77-97).
eWvgareSea, rom aSS-is politikuri istebliSmentisaTvis yvelaze
sasurvelia meore scenari -- transformirebuli sabWoTa kavSiris, rogorc
115
erTiani saxelmwifos SenarCuneba, demokratiuli politikuri sistemiTa da
sabazro ekonomikiT. rogorc aRniSnavs z. BbJezinski, transformirebuli
sabWoTa kavSiri dasavleTis sagareo politikis `Suqura~ unda iyos
(Bzezinski, 1991, p. 14). meore mxriv, im SemTxvevaSic ki Tu sabWoTa kavSiris
Sida poltikuri movlenebi evoluciurad ganviTardeba, misi sagareo
politika kvlavac problematuri rCeba aSS politikuri
istebliSmentisTvis. marTlac, is ZiriTadi sakiTxebi, romlebic am
mimarTebiT gamoikveTeba vaSingtonis winaSe Semdegnairad SeiZleba
Camoyalibdes: iqneba Tu ara moskovi dasavleTis da aSS-is partniori
aRmosavleT evropis ganviTarebaSi? iTanamSromlebs Tu ara moskovi
regionaluri konfliqtebis mogvarebaSi? iTanamSromlebs Tu ara moskovi
masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis gadinebis SeCerebaSi?
vaSingtonSi aRmosavleT evropasTan mimarTebiT moskovis or pozicias
afiqsireben. pirveli poziciis Tanaxmad, moskovis sagareo politika `axali
azrovnebis~ Sesabamisi unda yofiliyo da aRmosavleT evropa ganexila
rogorc `dasavleTis zRurbli,~ romelTanac kompromisze dafuZnebuli
dialogi unda waremarTa. marTlac, am pozicias, yovel SemTxvevaSi
deklaraciul doneze mainc, metnaklebad misdevda sabWoTa kavSiris sagareo
saqmeTa saministro. meore poziciis Tanaxmad, romelic ekava komunisturi
partiis centraluri komitetis saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa departaments,
sabWoTa kavSiris oficialur sagareo politikas ar gaaCnda naTeli
strategiuli koncefcia, rac TiTqosda xels uwyobda dasavleTis gavlenis
gavrcelebas da zians ayenebda qveyanas (ibid, pp. 11-12).
ganvixiloT, Tu rogori iyo sabWoTa kavSirisadmi aSS-is politikuri
isetbliSmentis ZiriTadi midgomebi, sabWoTa kavSiris rogorc Sida
politikis, aseve sagareo politikis da, kerZod, aRmosavleT evropis mimarT
warmoebuli politikis amgvari ganusazRvrelobis fonze. gamovyofT
ramdenime Tvalsazriss, romlebic yvelaze mkafiod aris gamoxatuli da
gaaCniaT Sesabamisi faqtobrivi dasabuTeba:
116
a) pirveli Tvalsazrisis Tanaxmad, aSS-is mier evropuli integraciis
xelSewyoba da TviTkmari evropis ganviTareba warmoadgenda mTavar
saSualebas sabWoTa krizisis dasavleTiT gavrcelebis aRsakveTad (Bzezinski,
1991, p10; Nye,1992, p.95; Gaddis, 1991, pp. 116-117). erT-erTi yvelaze Zlieri
argumenti aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisis sasargeblod, albaT aris aSS-is
TaosnobiT `natos~ axali politikuri misiis ganviTareba evropis
transformaciisa da stabilizaciis procesis xelSesawyobad, razec zeviT
gvqonda saubari. davamatebT mxolod, rom `natos~ 1991 w. noemberis romis
samitze, sadac xdeba `axali strategiuli koncefciis~ deklarireba, buSi
pirdapir acxadebs, rom reagireba sabWoTa kavSiris arastabilur
ganviTarebaze unda ganxorcieldes aSS-sa da evropis strategiebis
harmonizaciiTa da SeTanxmebuli moqmedebiT (President Bush, November 7, 1991, US
Department of State Dispatch, November 11, 1991).
aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisis farglebSi SeiZleba aseve davuSvaT, rom
sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis periodSi aSS kvlavac agrZelebs e.w.
`aRmosavleTis politikis~ kurss, romelic jer kidev vili brandtis
`ostpolitikis~ msgavsad, vaSingtonisaTvis TandaTanobiT sul ufro
aucilebeli xdeba (Kissinger, 1994, pp. 733-736). es mtkiceba efuZneba Semdeg
argumentebs: 1. pirvel rigSi, aRniSnuli kursi reagirebda TviT sabWoTa
kavSiris sagareo politikis saxecvlilebaze: -- sabWoTa kavSiris sagareo
politika nakleb ideologizirebuli gaxda; -- Seicvala sabWoTa pozicia
regionalur konfliqtebze. 1 -- gorbaCovma mxari dauWira aRmosavleT
evropaSi Zireul politikur cvlilebebs; 2. vaSingtoni ar cdilobda
aSkarad Careuliyo aRmosavleT evropis mSvidobiani revoluciebis
procesSi; Tumca cnobilia isic, rom buSis administracias SeeZlo
sapirispiro kursis arCevac, raTa sabWoTa kavSirTan erTad
1 rogorc cnobilia, mesame samyaroSi sabWoTa kavSiris wina wlebis wiaRsvlebma ar gaamarTla kremlis molodinebi da axalma sabWoTa politikam gezi aiRo konfliqtebis mogvarebaze koaliciuri mTavrobebis Camoyalibebisa da arCevnebis xelSewyobis gziT.
117
gaekontrolebina aRmosavleT evropaSi mimdinare movlenebi. 1 meore mxriv,
vaSingtoni arc moskovis damarcxebas zeimobda aSkarad. arsebuli
SefasebebiT, vaSingtonis amgvari dabalansebuli politika warmoadgenda
mis yvelaze mniSvnelovan wvlils 1989-1991 wlebis movlenebSi (Mandelbaum,
1991, pp.6-22; Clad, Stone, 1992, pp.196-205). 3. aSS-is TaosnobiT ganxorcielebuli
`natos~ deklaraciebi misi axali politikuri misiis Taobaze, realurad
mimarTuli iyo ara imdenad sabWoTa kavSiridan momavali safrTxis
Sekavebaze, ramdenadac evropis darwmunebaze, raTa mas ar hqonoda `Zalis
vakuumis~ SiSi (White House fact sheets, November 8, 1991; US State Departmenr Dispatch,
November 11, 1991 ).
b) meore Tvalsazrisis Tanaxmad, sabWoTa kavSiris `CarTva~
saerTaSoriso procesebSi warmoadgens aucilebel zomas SesaZlo
saerTaSoriso destabilizaciis asacileblad. 2 am farTo TvalsazrisSi,
Tavis mxriv, SeiZleba ori konkretuli poziciis gamoyofa, romlebic
avseben erTmaneTs. 1. pirveli pozicia yuradRebas amaxvilebs sabWoTa
kavSirTan dialogis warmarTvaze birTvuli omis Tavidan asacileblad
(Allison, Blackwill, 1991, p. 91). am poziciis udao arguments warmoadgens is
garemoeba, rom sabWoTa kavSiris aramSvidobiani gziT daSlis SemTxvevaSi,
uzarmazari birTvuli arsenali SeiZleba centraluri xelisuflebis
kontrolidan gamosuliyo. 3 Tumca, aqve gvinda avRniSnoT, rom sabWoTa
1 1989 w. 28 martis New York Times-is informaciiT, j. beikeri mzad iyo am sakiTxis moskovTan gansaxilvelad. 2 aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisi saTaves iRebs im periodidan, rodesac prezidenti buSi 1989 w. maisSi texasis universiteSi gamosvlisas, pirvelad axasiaTebs aSS-is sabWoTa politikas, rogorc politikas `Sekavebis miRma~ da mogvianebiT, 1989 w. dekembris maltis samitze pirvelad warsdgeba, rogorc reiganis administraciis bolo periodis `aRmosavleTis politikis~ kursis gamgrZelebeli. 3 marTlac, rogorc cnobilia, 1991 w. ivlisis moskovis ukanasknel samitze, gorbaCovi da buSi sabolood xels aweren strategiuli SeiaraRebis Semcirebis xelSekrulebas (START), romelsac aTwliani molaparakebebi uZRoda win. igi 30-40%-iT amcirebda orive qveynis strategiul birTvul SeiaraRebas, iTvaliswinebda molaparakebebis gagrZelebas kvotebis Semdgom Semcirebaze da Sefasebuli iyo, rogorc startegiuli balansis miRwevis da birTvuli konfliqtis gamoricxvis umniSvnelovanesi wanamZRvari. amave dros, 1991 w. seqtemberSi buSi akeTebs gancxadebas administarciis gadawyvetilebis Sesaxeb calmxrivad gaanadguros 3,000 erTeuli axlo-radiusis raketa da mouwodos sabWoTa kavSirs igive nabijis gadadgmisaken. am gadawyvetilebas buSi asabuTebda imiTac, rom rusi
118
kavSirTan `birTvuli TanamSromlobis~ politikas kongressa da
amomrCevlebze orientirebuli, Sidapolitikuri ganzomilebac hqonda da ar
iyo calsaxad gamiznuli moskovis `ganeitralebaze~. 1 2. meore pozicia
yuradRebas amaxvilebs sabWoTa kavSirTan dialogis warmarTvaze
Cveulebrivi SeiaraRebis sferoSi dapirispirebis asacileblad. aRniSnuli
pozicia efuZneba im garemoebas, rom miuxedavad swrafi ekonomikuri
vardnisa, sabWoTa kavSiris Cveulebrivi SeiraRebis sidide da ganlageba
kvlavac uaRresad SemaSfoTebeli iyo aSS-sa da evropeli
mokavSireebisaTvis. 2 Tumca am poziciasTan mimarTebaSic aseve SesaZleblad
migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom aSS-is aRniSnuli politika ar iyo calsaxad
momarTuli sabWoTa kavSiris `CarTvaze~ da axlda bevri gareSe, Tu
Sidapolitikuri aspeqti, romelic TavisTavSive Seicavda winaaRmdegobebs
aRniSnuli politikis gatarebisadmi. 3
demokratebis mier `putCis~ damarcxebis Semdeg, rogorc kremlis, aseve sabWoTa respublikebis liderebi kiTxvis niSnis qveS ayenebdnen uzarmazari birTvuli iaraRis saWiroebas. 1 buSis am politikas uaRresad dadebiTi rezonansi mohyva demokratiul kongresSi, romelic buSs akritikebda `strategiuli Tavdacvis iniciativis~ da B-2 bombaTmSenis Seqmnis programebis gamo. 2 marTlac, aSS dgams qmediT nabijebs am mimarTebiT sabWoTa kavSiris `CarTvisaTvis.~ 1989 w. maisisaTvis, ukve ZiriTadad moxazuli iyo `xelSekruleba evropaSi Cveulebrivi SeiarRebis Sesaxeb~ (CFE). SeiaraRebis kvotebsa da kategoriebze mravalricxovani winaaRmdegobebis daZlevis Semdeg, raSic udao wvlili miuZRviT imJamindel aSS saxelmwifo mdivans j. beikers da sabWoTa kavSiris sagareo saqmeTa ministrs e. SevardnaZes, 1990 w. 19 noembers, parizSi sabolood Sesdga CFE xelSekrulebis xelmowera, romelSic 21 saxelmwifom miiRo monawileoba. 3 kerZoT, aq viTvaliswinebT Semdeg garemoebebs: 1. CFE xelSekrulebis xelmoweris Semdeg, sabWoTa konservatoruli Zalebis mier wamoyenebuli axali pretenziebis sapasuxod, buSma gadawyvita ar moeTxova senatis mier xelSekrulebis ratifikacia, rac Tavis mxriv, sabWoTa kavSirs warmoaCenda, rogorc xelSekrulebis miRebis ZiriTad dabrkolebas. 2. miuxedavad imisa, rom 1991 w. 25 noembers senatma sabolood moaxdina CFE xelSekrulebis ratifikacia, kongresma daitova ukan dasaxevi gza da miiRo damateba, romlis mixedviTac, aSS-is xelSekrulebaSi dasarCenad, saWiro iyo senatis sagangebo rezolucia (im SemTxvevaSi Tu sabWoTa kavSiris romelime respublika uars ityoda misi pirobebis dakmayofilebaze). 3. sabWoTa kavSirTan dialogs Cveulebrivi SeiaraRebis Taobaze sakmaod Zlieri opozicia hyvada TviT aSS-is politikur istebliSmentSic. respublikeli `hardlainerebis~ mtkicebiT, pirvel rigSi, CFE xelSekruleba sabWoTa kavSirs miscemda legalur safuZvels ganelagebina jarebi aRmosavleT evropaSi da, amave dros, gzas gauxsnida saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebisaken, riTac sabWoTa kavSirs agreTve miecemoda SesaZlebloba mieRo sesxebi samxedro programebis dasafinanseblad. meore rigSic, aSS-is SigniT buSis popularulobis zrda sabWoTa kavSirTan urTierTobebis ganviTarebis safuZvelze, advilad SeiZleba gamxdariyo moskovis mxridan manipulirebis
119
g) mesame TvalsazrisiT, saerTaSoriso destabilizaciis gamoricxvis
ZiriTad gzas warmoadgens TviT sabWoTa kavSirSi mimdinare
restruqturizaciis procesebis xelSewyoba (Conressional Quarterly, June 8, 1991;
Allison, Blackwill, 1991, pp. 77-97). aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisi, pirvel rigSi,
efuZneba debulebas, romlis Tanaxmad aSS-sTvis aucielebelia 1970-iani
wlebis daZabulobis Senelebis periodis Secdomebis gaTvaliswineba,
rodesac ormxrivi urTierTobebi mxolod SeiaraRebis kontrolis
mowesrigebaze iyo mimarTuli da droebiTi daTboba maleve Secvala
konfrontaciis axalma safexurma. aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisi aseve emyareba im
farTo gamoxmaurebas, romelic hpova gorbaCovis `glasnostis~ da
demokratizaciis politikam amerikul sazogadoebaSi (Allison, Blackwill, 1991,
pp.92-93). aRniSnul TvalsazrisTan mimarTebaSi SesaZleblad migvaCnia
mtkiceba, rom aSS-is sagareo politikis sistema `operaciul~ doneze mainc
ver anxorcielebda sabWoTa kavSiris restruqturizaciis raime
mniSvnelovan ekonomikur uzrunvelyofas. Cveni argumentacia efuZneba
Semdeg debulebebs:
-- miuxedavad gakeTebuli gancxadebebisa ormxrivi vaWrobis gafarToebis
Sesaxeb, normaluri savaWro urTierTobebis ganviTareba sabWoTa kavSirTan
am periodSi realurad SeuZlebeli iyo, vinaidan kvlavac moqmedi 1974 wlis
savaWro aqtis `jekson-vanikis Sesworeba~ krZalavda sabWoTa kavSirisaTvis
`upiratesi xelewyobis savaWro reJimis monawile saxelmwifos~ (MFN)
statusis miniWebas (Congressional Quarterly, June 8, 1991). garda amisa, arsebobda
rigi ekonomikuri faqtorebisa -- centralizebuli sabWoTa ekonomikuri
sistema, centralizebuli sabWoTa savaWro sistema, arakonvertirebadi
rubli, sabWoTa produqciis arakonkurentunarianoba da sxva -- romlebic
aseve gamoricxavdnen sabWoTa kavSirTan normaluri savaWro urTierTobebis
ganviTarebas (US Department of State Dispatch, August 12, 1991).
sagani. Sesabamisad, amerikuli opozicia miiCnevda, rom `samSvidobo dividendebiT~ gataceba naadrevi iyo da, realurad, aucilebeli iyo sabWoTa kavSirze zewolis kursis SenarCuneba.
120
-- senatis wamyvani demokratebi iTxovdnen, rom aSS-s miebaZa Tavisi
saerTaSoriso konkurentebisaTvis da sagareo daxmarebisTvis ufro metad
komerciuli xasiaTi mieniWebina (Congressional Quarterly, June 2, 1990). 1991 w.
maisSi senati iRebs dadgenilebas sabWoTa kavSirisaTvis 1.5 miliardi aSS
dolaris Rirebulebis sasoflo-sameurneo kreditis gamoyofis Sesaxeb.
Tumca, Tavad rezoluciis iniciatoris, senatis umciresobis lideris bob
doulis TqmiT, krediti realurad scildeba dRis wesrigSi myof sagareo
politikis sakiTxebs da komerciul xasiaTs atarebs (Congressional Quarterly,
June 22, 1991). 1992 w. ukve iwereba, rom udidesi wili dasavleTis 24
miliardiani erToblivi daxmarebisa, romelic egzom farTod iyo
reklamirebuli pirvel rigSi aSS-is mier, warmoadgenda Cveulebriv savaWro
kreditebs, xolo realuri daxmareba aqedan mxolod 2 miliards Seadgenda
(Dybvik, Wireless Files, March 18, 1992).
-- 1991 w. noembrisaTvis, agvistos putCis Semdegac ki, gamoikveTa
orpartiuli opozicia 1992 w. Tavdacvis biujetis muxlisadmi, romelic 292-
miliardiani Tavdacvis biujetidan iTvaliswinebda 1 miliardis gamoyofas
sabWoTa kavSiris humanitaruli daxmarebisa da samxedro industriis
demobilizaciisaTvis. oponentebi acxadebdnen, rom aRniSnuli muxli
daarRvevda miRweul sabiujeto SeTanxmebas, romelic awesebda ra
Tavdacvis, saSinao da sagareo xarjebis limitebs, krZalavda maT Soris
Tanxebis gadanawilebas (Congressional Quarterly, November 9, 1991). Tavdacvis
biujetis humanitaruli miznebisaTvis gamoyenebas uaryofiTad Sexvda
administraciac, romelic amgvar zomas naadrevad miiCnevda (Congressional
Quarterly, August 31, 1991: Congressional Quarterly, Septemebr 7, 1991). sabolood,
kongresma aRniSnuli muxli ganaxevrebuli odenobiT daamtkica (Congressional
Quarterly, November 30, 1991).
-- ufro zogad doneze, aSS-is politikur debatebSi gamudmebiT ismis
kiTxva, Tu ramdenad marTebulia daxmarebis gaweva gorbaCovis
mTavrobisadmi, romelic aSkarad scdeba demokratiuli reformebis
121
Tavdapirvel kurss 1 da, amave dros, arc gadaxdisunariania (Mandelbaum,
1991, pp 6-22).
amgvarad, SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom Sidapolitikuri
faqtorebis gaTvaliswinebiT, aSS-is politikuri istebliSmenti ar aris
mzad gaiRos mniSvnelovani resursebi sabWoTa kavSiris ekonomikuri da
politikuri restruqturizaciis xelSesawyobad, xolo marSalis gegmis
tipis e.w. `didi garigebis~ valdebulebis aReba politikurad
gaumarTleblad aris miCneuli.
viTvaliswinebT ra sabWoTa kavSirisadmi aSS politikuri
istebliSmentis zogad midgomebs da am midgomebis motivaciis ganxilul
Tvalsazrisebsa da Tanmxleb garemoebebs, marTebulad migvaCnia mtkiceba,
rom istebliSmentis `TanamaSromlobis~ parametrze, sabWoTa kavSiris
daSlis sakiTxi saboloo jamSi aisaxeba, rogorc erTiani pozicia,
romelic iTvaliswinebs, maqsimum, swrafvas sabWoTa kavSiris stabiluri
struqturis SesanarCuneblad, da minimum, sabWoTa kavSiris mravalmxrivi
krizisis lokalizebas mis sazRvrebs SigniT.
Cveni Tvalsazrisis argumentaciisas aseve gamovyofT or aspeqts:
1. qronologiurad, Cveni Tvalsazrisi, iTvaliswinebs ra politikuri
istebliSmentis personaliebis individualur gamocdilebas, eyrdnoba buSis
saarCevno kampaniisa da misi prezidentobis pirveli weliwadis analizs,
romelic warmoaCens mis maqsimaluri undoblobas aSS - sabWoTa kavSiris
urTierTobebisa da sabWoTa reformebis mimarT (Obertorter, 1998, pp. 330-332).
aRsaniSnavia isic, rom buSis administarciis wamyvani figurebi, saxelmwifo
mdivani jeims beikeri, mrCeveli erovnuli usafrTxoebis sakiTxebSi brent
skoukrofti da Tavdacvis ministri dik Ceini, iseve rogorc TviTon buSi,
mWidrod TanamSromlobdnen prezident fordis administarciis periodSi,
rodesac `detantis~ politika kvlav daZabulobis eskalaciam Secvala.
1 amgavri argumentebi efuZneba iseT faqtebs, rogoricaa sabWoTa jaris galaSqreba litvaze da latviaze, mxardWeris gagrZeleba avRaneTis, kubis, Crdilo koreis diqtaturebisadmi, samxedro prioritetebis SenarCuneba sabWoTa mrewvelobis ganviTarebaSi da sxva.
122
buSis gundi, reiganis administraciis bolo periodTan SedarebiT,
xasiaTdeboda gacilebiT ufro pragmatuli da frTxili damokidebulebiT
sabWoTa kavSiris mimarT. rogorc cnobilia, buSs erTi weliwadi dasWirda,
raTa misuliyo sabWoTa kavSirTan urTierTobis im zRurblTan, romelic
reiganis meore vadis bolosTvis iyo miRweuli. buSis Semdgomi
qmedebebidan gamomdinare, aseve SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom buSma
Tavisi adminisitraciis bolomde SeianarCuna amgvari frTxili
damokidebuleba sabWoTa kavSirisadmi da naklebad eqvemdebareboda
swrafvas `axali msoflio wesrigis~ zogadi idealebisaken.
2. miuxedavad sabWoTa reformebis aSkara warumateblobisa, sabWoTa
kavSiris arsebobis bolomde buSi acxadebda sabWoTa centraluri
mTavrobis mxardaWeras, rac ewinaaRmdegeboda sabWoTa kavSiris
damoukidebeli respublikebis nebayofilobiT federaciad Tu
konfederaciad transformaciis SesaZleblobas. aqac or aspeqtze
SevCerdebiT:
a) miuxedavad buSis gancxadebebisa, rom vaSingtonis politika ver
daefuZneboda mxolod erT adamians, anu `perestroikis arqiteqtors~
gorbaCovs (Congressional Quarterly, May 5, 1990), migvaCnia, rom administarciis
politika faqtiurad moskovis centraluri mTavrobis, anu gorbaCovis
mxardaWeras warmoadgenda. moviyvanoT ramdenime sagulisxmo garemoeba:
-- cnobilia, rom 1989 w. maltis samitis Semdeg (pirveli sabWoTa-amerikuli
samitisa, roemlic ar emyareboda civi omis periodis aRmosavleT-
dasavleTis dapirispirebis models), `natos~ StabbinaSi gamarTul
preskonferenciaze buSma sajarod dauWira mxari gorbaCovis gancxadebas
imis Taobaze, rom germaniidan jarebis gayvanis `xelovnuri daCqareba~
faqtiurad am procesis Semaferxebeli iqneboda (Oberdorter, 1998, p 458).
migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli gancxadebis daxasiaTeba SesaZlebelia mxolod
rogorc uaRresad frTxili poziciis gamoxatulebisa, romlis mizania
123
maqsimalurad ar gaaRizinos meore mxare da Seuqmnas mas, iseve rogorc
mTel danarCen msoflios, sruli loialurobis STabeWdileba.
-- 1990 w. ivnisis vaSingtonis samitisTvis, administraciisaTvis ukve naTeli
unda yofiliyo, rom gorbaCovis varskvlavi Caesvena. uSualod samitis win,
gorbaCovma udidesi politikuri dartyma ganicada, rodesac boris elcini
ruseTis prezidentad airCies. naTeli iyo, rom amgvar konteqstSi,
gorbaCovs Tavisi Seryeuli mdgomareobis gasaZliereblad, haeriviT
esaWiroeboda vaSingtonis mxridan ekonomikuri daxmarebis aRTqma da
savaWro xelSekrulebis miRweva. miuxedavad kongresis kategoriuli
winaaRmdegobisa, romelsac savaWro xelSekrulebis ganxilvac ki ar surda
manam sanam moskovs ekonomikur blokadaSi hyavda moqceuli litva, buSis
administraciam kvlav gaiziara gorbaCovis pozicia da wavida savaWro
xelSekrulebis xelmoweraze, Tumca im pirobiT, rom prezidenti ar
gaugzavnida xelSekrulebas kongress, sanam sabWoTa kavSiri ar miiRebda
kanonmdeblobas imigraciis Taobaze. litvis sakiTxi arc ki iyo
wamoyenebuli rogorc ratifikaciis piroba, isev da isev gorbaCovis
poziciis gaTvaliswinebiT.
-- sabWoTa kavSiris farTomasStabiani daxmarebisadmi kongresis uaRresad
winaaRmdegobrivi poziciis fonze, buSi kvlav naxulobs saSualebas, raTa
`daajildovos~ gorbaCovi erayis winaaRmdeg TanamSromlobisaTvis.
vaSingtonis SuamavlobiT, saudis arabeTi gamoyofs 4 miliardian kredits
zamTris periodSi sabWoTa kavSiris dasaxmareblad.
-- sabWoTa kavSiris mzardi dezintegraciis fonze, buSi cdilobs kvlav
moaxdinos gorbaCovis mxardaWeris demonstrireba. 1990 w. 24 ianvars buSi
acxadebs, rom igi darwmunebulia imaSi, rom gorbaCovi gauZlebs eTnikur
konfliqts azerbaijanSi da separatisul moZraobas baltiispireTis
respublikebSi (Congressional Quarterly, January 27, 1990). 1991 w. ivlisis bolo
samitis Semdeg, buSi sabWoTa lideris mxardamWeri sityviT gamodis kievSi,
damoukideblobis maZiebeli ukrainuli parlamentis winaSe. igi mouwodebs
damoukideblobisaTvis mebrZol Zalebs ganasxvavon Tavisuflebisa da
124
damoukideblobis cnebebi da aRniSnavs, rom `aSS mxars ar uWers imaT, vinc
Seecdeba Soreuli tirania adgilobrivi despotizmiT Secvalos.~ am sityvam,
romelic `wiwila kievis~ (anu `mfrTxali kievis~) saxeliT aris cnobili,
uaRresad uaryofiTi STabeWdileba datova ukrainis ganmanTavisuflebel
moZraoba `ruxze~ da niSandoblivi iyo sxva respublikebisTvisac (Oberdorter,
1998, p.458). buSis TqmiT, maSin rodesac zogierTebi mouwdebdnen aSS
mTavrobas gaekeTebina arCevani gorbaCovsa da damoukideblobisaTvis
mebrZol liderebs Soris, `realuri arCevani~ Zalzed SezRuduli iyo,
vinaidan aSS SeinarCunebda `maqsimalurad mtkice urTierTobebs prezident
gorbaCovis sabWoTa mTavrobasTan~ (Brown, 1994, p.521)
amave dros, moskovis centraluri mTavrobisadmi deklarirebuli
mxardaWeris fonze, administracia ar iyo mzad eTxova kongresisaTvis
sabWoTa kavSiris maStaburi daxmarebis damtkiceba, iTvaliswinebda ra: --
oponentebis mzard kritikas arareformirebuli sabWoTa kavSiris
mxardaWerisadmi; -- kongresis opozicias sabWoTa kavSirisTvis
mniSvnelovani saxsrebis gamoyofisadmi; -- da aSS-is sabiujeto deficits,
rac mwvave sakiTxad dadgeboda momaval saprezidento arCevnebSi. es kidev
erTxel miuTiTebs imaze, rom administracias xelT ar ewifeboda mieRo
operaciuli donis gadawyvetilebebi sabWoTa kavSiris realuri,
mSvidobiani, sabazro ekonomikisa da demokratiis principebze dafuZnebuli
transformaciis misaRwevad.
b) aRniSnul viTarebaSi, aSS-is poltikuri isetbliSmenti maqsimalurad
mxars uWers sabWoTa respublikebsa da centrs Soris axali sakavSiro
xelSekrulebis gaformebas, romelic sabolood 1991 w. 20 agvistosTvis
daigegma. am periodis analitikur literaturaSi iwereboda, rom
dasavleTis mTavrobebi, aSS-is CaTvliT, marTalia scnobdnen erTa
TviTgamorkvevis uflebas, faqtiurad sabWoTa respublikebis mier am
uflebis gamoyenebis winaaRmdegi iyvnen da mouwodebdnen kidevac moskovs,
Seekavebina respublikebis miwrafebebi suverenitetisadmi (ra Tqma unda,
Zalis gamoyenebis gareSe) (Bialer, 1991, p. 173; Laqueur, 1992, p.108) aSS-sTan
125
mimarTebiT ki xazgasmiT aRiniSneboda, rom absolutamde ayvanili
TviTgamorkvevis ufleba aSS-is konstituciur principebs ewinaaRmdegeboda
da misi ganurCeveli ganxorcieleba sabWoTa kavSiris teritoriaze aseve
ewinaaRmdegeboda aSS-is interesebs. amdenad, nebismieri SeTanxmeba,
romelic misaRebi iqneboda 12 sabWoTa respublikisa da centraluri
mTavrobisaTvis, aseve misaRebi iqneboda aSS-is xelisuflebisTvisac
(Congressional Quarterly, June 16, 1990; Bzezinski, 1991, pp.1-20).
sabWoTa kavSiris nebismieri formiT SenarCunebis miswrafeba
arapirdapiri formiT gamovlinda 19 agvistos putCis dReebSic, romelmac,
rogorc cnobilia, CaSala momdevno dRes dagegmili sakavSiro
xelSekrulebis dadeba. miuxedavad vaSingtonis mier sabWoTa
xelisuflebis arakonstituciuri gziT uzurpaciis dagmobisa, 1991 w. 21
agvistos, Crdiloatlantikuri sabWos Sexvedraze briuselSi, saxelmwifo
mdivani j. beikeri acxadebs, rom aSS ar aRiqvams moskovis putCs, rogorc
konfliqts dasavleTsa da aRmosavleTs Soris da Sesabamisad, sabWoTa
liderebs ar miscems sababs raime gareSe muqaris daSvebisa. amave dros,
aSS kvlavac gaagrZelebs sabWoTa kavSirTan TanamSromlobas SeiaraRebis
kontrolze, miuxedavad imisa, Tu vin iqneba moskovis xelisuflebis
saTaveSi (Secretary Baker, August 21, 1991).
putCis Cavardnis Semdeg, rodesac ukve sruliad naTeli xdeba, rom
sabWoTa kavSiris fragmentacia Seuqcevadi procesia, aSS-is sagareo
politikis sistemis mizani SeinarCunos sabWoTa kavSiri, rogorc erTiani
integrirebuli struqtura, gansakuTrebiT mkafiod gamoixateba. 1991 w. 2
oqtombers kongresSi gamosvlisas, saxelmwifo mdivnis moadgile
ekonomikisa da soflis meurneobis sakiTxebSi robert zoeliki aRniSnavs,
rom ZiriTadi sakiTxi, romelic dRiswesrigSi dgeba aris Tu ramdenad aris
jer kidev SesaZlebeli respublikebis SekavSireba. zoelikis TqmiT, Tu
putCamde centraluri mTavroba muSaobda `erTi-plus-cxra~ SeTanxmebaze
(e.i. gorbaCovi plus cxra respublikis lideri), axla SesaZlebeli iyo
saubari `cxra-plus-erTi~ SeTanxmebaze, rac gulisxmobda imas, rom axla
126
Tavad respublikebi gadawyvetdnen Tu ra zomiT dauTmobdnen isini
xelisuflebas centrs. zoeliki aseve aRniSnavs, rom ar SeiZleba
respublikebis gaigiveba demokratiul reformebTan, vinaidan bevri
respublikis politikuri kursi ar aris garkveuli, xolo zogierTi
lideri centraluri xelisuflebis daSlas erovnuli umciresobebis
Sesaviwroeblad iyenebs. zoeliki aseve xazs usvams axlad damoukidebel
respublikebs Soris integraciuli an koordinaciuli struqturebis Seqmnis
prioritetulobas (Zoellick,, October 2, 1991, US Department of State Dispatch, October 9,
1991).
sabWoTa kavSiris politikuri evoluciis koncefcias efuZneba agreTve
j. beikeris mier Camoyalibebuli aSS - sabWoTa kavSiris urTierTobebis 5
ZiriTadi principi, romelic mouwodebs sabWoTa liderebs demokratiuli
mmarTvelobis, kanonis uzenaesobis da saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebis
dacvisaken. es principebi aseve unda daedos safuZvlad TviT respublikebs
Soris Camoyalibebul urTierTobebs (Secretary Baker, September 4, 1991).
aRniSnul azrs yvelaze mkafiod ayalibebs Tavad buSi, rodesac faqtiurad
saubrobs respublikebis reintegraciis ekonomikur berketebze. buSis
TqmiT, imisaTvis rom im respublikebma, romelTac centrTan kavSiris
SenarCuneba surT, miiRon dasavleTis daxmareba, maT erTmaneTTan unda
gaaformon urTierTobis garkveuli xelSekruleba, raTa dasavleTisaTvis
naTeli iyos, Tu vin aris misi partniori mxare. xolo respublikebma,
romelTac sruli damoukidebloba surT, unda gaarkvion, Tu rogor
apireben isini TavianTi ekonomikuri urTierTobebis warmarTvas ruseTTan,
sabWoTa kavSirTan da dasavleTTan (President Bush, August 26, 1991).
amgvarad, SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom aSS-is politikuri
istebliSmentis ZiriTad pozicias warmoadgenda sabWoTa kavSiris erTiani,
Tumca TeoriaSi transformirebuli, struqturis SenarCuneba, rac pirvel
rigSi, ganpirobebli iyo, erTi mxriv, regionaluri destabilizaciis
Tavidan acilebis aucileblobiT da, meore mxriv, sabWoTa kavSiris yvelaze
did erTan, ruseTTan urTierTobis SenarCunebis aucileblobiT.
127
istebliSmentis amgvari pozicia, Cvens mier amave dros ganixileba,
rogorc drois mocemuli periodisTvis istebliSmentis `TanamSromlobis~
parametris cvladi, romelic ganapirobebs `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis aSS-is sagareo politikis
sakiTxad Camoyalibebas.
3.1.2.4 politikuri partiebi
rogorc vuCveneT Cveni kvlevis meTodologiur nawilSi, mocemul
periodSi, romelic xasiaTdeba negatiuri socialur-ekonomikuri
parametrebiT, gamoikveTeba partiebis `ideologiuri dapirispirebis~
parametri, romelic korelaciaSia aRiSnul socialur-ekonomikur
parametrebTan. amave dros, partiaTa daaxloebis tendencia ufro metad
atarebs `saxelisuflebo~ daaxloebis xasiaTs, gamomdinare im saerTo
amocanebidan, romlebic dgeba xelisuflebis orpartiuli Stoebis, an ufro
viwrod, orpartiuli kongresis winaSe. partiaTa `saxelisuflebo~
daaxloeba dadebiT korelaciaSia aRweril saerTaSoriso garemos
parametrebTan, romelTaganac, am SemTxvevaSi, ZiriTadia `komunizmis
damarcxebis~ da `arastabilurobis axali kerebis~ parametrebi.
meTodologiur nawilSi Cven aseve vuCveneT, rom partiaTa urTierTqmedeba
`daaxloebis~ parametrze didad aris ganpirobebuli saerTaSoriso sistemis
parametrebis cvladebis `radikalurobis~ xarisxiT. Cveni modelis Tanaxmad,
saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebis `radikalurobiT~ ganpirobebuli
`saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametri aseve dadebiT korelaciaSia
politikuri istebliSmentis `TanamSromlobis parametrTan.~
migvaCnia, rom `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi
Tavisi intensiobiT uaxlovdeba `radikaluri~ cvladis mniSvnelobas da
Sesabamisad, aisaxeba partiaTa `saxelisuflebo~ daaxloebis parametrze.
amave dros, sagulisxmoa, rom aRniSnul parametrze, ukve SesaZlebelia
uSualod saqarTvelos problematikis calke gamokveTa.
128
amgvari asaxvis konkretul Sedegebze msjelobis saSualebas gvaZlevs
kongresis `evropaSi usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~/`helsinkis~
komisiis moxsenebebi da mosmenebi, romlebSic asaxulia kongresis orive
partiisa da orive palatis warmomadgenlebis daskvnebi da romlebic,
pirvel rigSi, niSandoblivia swored rom yofili sabWoTa kavSiris
teritoriaze aSS-is sagareo politikis principebis TvalsazrisiT (Hearing:
U.S. policy Toward the OSCE, Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe. October 10,
2002U).
kongresis `evropaSi usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~ komisiis
moxsenebaSi saqarTvelos 1990 wlis oqtombris pirveli mravalpartiuli
arCevnebis Sesaxeb, warmoCenilia is winaaRmdegobrivi Sidapolitikuri
konteqsti, romelSic mimdinareobda saqarTvelos brZola
damoukideblobisaTvis. 1 moxsenebis ZiriTad Temas warmoadgens
saqarTvelos mier gorbaCovis `sakavSiro xelSekrulebis~ ukugdeba da
sruli damoukideblobis miRwevamde gardamavali periodis gamocxadeba.
`evropaSi usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~ komisia imedovnebs, rom
aRniSnul gardamaval periodSi movlenaTa Semdgomi ganviTareba ukarnaxebs
vaSingtons Tu ra pozicia unda daikavos man saqarTvelos mier sruli
damoukideblobis gamocxadebis SemTxvevaSi. `evropaSi usafrTxoebisa da
TanamSromlobis~ komisiis midgoma aRniSnuli problemisadmi uaRresad
frTxilia, gansakuTrebiT imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom mis wevrebTan
Sexvedrisas, prezidenti gamsaxurdia ganacxadebs saerTaSoriso
Tanamegobrobis mxardaWeris gadamwyvet mniSvnelobaze saqarTvelos mier
1 am konteqstis ZiriTadi aspeqtebia: mwvave konfliqti arCevnebSi gamarjvebul `mrgval magidasa~ da opoziciur `erovnul kongress~ Soris, romlis sisxlian konfliqtSi gadazrdis potenciali ukve imTaviTvea gamokveTili; maRali albaToba imisa, rom moskovi ar dauSvebs saqarTvelos mier Tavisi resursebis srul gakontrolebas, an ucxo qveynebTan damoukidebeli ekonomikuri kavSirebis damyarebas; erovnuli politika, romelic zRudavs erovnul umciresobebs da sisxliani dapirispirebebis potencialis matarebelia; SesaZlebloba imisa, rom moskovi gamoiyenebs aRniSnul eTnikur dapirispirebebs saqarTveloze zewolis gansaxorcieleblad; zviad gamsaxurdias faqtori, romlis pirovnebisa da politikuri prioritetebis ganmsazRvreli roli daxasiaTebulia, rogorc `politikis personalizacia~ saqarTveloSi.
129
sruli damoukideblobis misaRwevad (Report on the October 28, 1990 Supreme Soviet
Elections in Georgia, Commission on Security and Cooperation In Europe, December, 1990, pp.
163-187).
vTvliT, rom zemoxsenebuli dokumenti amavdroulad SeiZleba
CaiTvalos aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze `deklaraciuli~
donis erT-erT Sedegadac, vinaidan igi, miuxedavad Tavisi aRweriTi
xasiaTisa, faqtobrivad warmoadgens komisiis pozicias da iZleva pirdapir
rekomendacias saqarTvelos mimarT aSS-is politikis Taobaze.
Tuki am dokumentes SevadarebT analogiur dokuments azerbaijanis
mimarT, sadac 1990 w. seqtemberSi aseve Catarda pirveli mravalpartiuli
arCevnebi azerbaijanis umaRles sabWoSi, gamoikveTeba is garemoeba, rom
gansxvavebiT saqarTvelosagan, azerbaijanis saboloo pozicia gorbaCovis
`sakavSiro xelSekrulebis~ mimarT sabolood ar aris dafiqsirebuli.
xazgasmulia, rom gamarjvebuli komunisturi partiis lideris aiaz
mutalibovis xelisufleba qveynis pozicias `sakavSiro xelSekrulebis~
mimarT iyenebs rogorc moskovTan vaWrobis berkets azerbaijan-somxeTis
konfliqtTan mimarTebaSi. Tumca, msgavsad saqarTvelos konteqstisa, aSS
politikur istebliSments eZleva rekomendacia gamoiCinos maqsimaluri
sifrTxile azerbaijanTan politikuri urTierTobebis ganviTarebisas
(Report on the September 30, 1990 Supreme Soviet Elections in Azerbaijan, Commission on
Security and Coperation in Europe, 1990, pp. 139-162).
SeSfoTeba saqarTvelos politikuri kursis Taobaze kidev ufro
izrdeba `sakavSiro xelSekrulebis~ referendumTan dakavSirebiT
saqarTvelos kontr-referendumis da 1991 w. aprilSi damoukideblobis
gamocxadebis kvaldakval. kongresis `helsinkis~ komisiis moxsenebaSi,
romelsac aseve miviCnevT aRweriTi tipis `deklaraciuli~ donis Sedegad,
xazgasmulia saqarTvelos Sida `politikuri qaosis~ mdgomareoba.
paralelurad, wamoweulia uaRresad daZabuli eTnikuri urTierTobebi,
sadac gamoikveTeba eTnikur umciresobaTa SeSfoTeba gamsaxurdias
`saqarTvelo qarTvelebisaTvis~ politikis Taobaze. `helsinkis~ komisiis
130
daskvniT, saqarTvelos, rogorc damoukidebeli saxelmwifos, aRiareba
saerTaSoriso sazogadoebriobis mier, damokidebulia saqarTvelos mier im
`fundamentaluri sakiTxebis~ gadaWraze, romlebic Seexeba
`urTierTmimarTebas demokratiasa da wesrigs Soris.~ saqarTvelos unars
droulad gadaWras aRniSnuli sakiTxebi komisa eWviT ekideba (Report of the
Helsinki Commission on the U.S. Congressional Delegation Visit to Vienna, Latvia, Estonia,
Lithuania, Georgia, Armenia and Moscow, September 3-10, pp. 21-31, 1991).
Tuki gavavlebT paralels analogiur moxsenebebTan somxeTis
Taobaze, vnaxavT Tu ramdenad gansxvavebulia aqcentebi am ori respublikis
mimarT ((Report of the Helsinki Commission on the U.S. Congressional Delegation Visit to
Vienna, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Georgia, Armenia and Moscow, September 3-10, pp. 33-37,
1991; Report on the Armenian Referendum on Independence, September 21, 1991, October 1,
1991). kerZod, somxeTis 1991 w. 21 seqtembris damoukideblobis referendumis
Taobaze `evropaSi usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~ komisiis moxsenebaSi
xazgasmulia, rom somxeTi aris erTaderTi respublika, romelic
damoukideblobis damkvidrebas arsebuli sabWoTa kanonmdeblobis Tanaxmad
cdilobs. 1
somxeTTan SepirispirebiT, gorbaCovis 17 martis `sakavSiro
referendumisadmi~ saqarTvelos agresiuli pozicia wamoweulia aseve
komisiis specialur moxsenebaSic. `pravdisa~ da `tasis~ informaciaze
dayrdnobiT, moxsenebaSi aRniSnulia, rom miuxedavad saqarTvelos
xelisuflebis muqarisa, samxreT oseTis da afxazeTis araqarTveli
mosaxleobis umravlesobam monawileoba miiRo referendumSi da dadebiTad
Seafasa axali kavSiris Camoyalibeba, magram saqarTvelos parlamentma
arakanonierad scno da gaauqma 17 martis referendumis Sedegebi.
MmoxsenebaSi aseve Sefasebulia 1991 w. 31 martis saqarTvelos
damoukideblobis `kontr-referendumis~ Sedegebi. aRiniSneba, rom samxreT
1 moxsenebaSi xazgasmulia, rom saqarTvelosa da baltiispireTis respublikebis msgavsad, somxeTma aseve uari ganacxada gorbaCovis referendumSi monawiloebis miRebaze, magram maTgan gansxvavebiT, `somxeTis boikoti efuZneba mis gacxadebul ganzraxvas gamovideas sabWoTa kavSiridan sabWoTa kanonebis Sesabamisad.~
131
oseTma saqarTvelos referendums boikoti gamoucxada. aseve saeWvod aris
miCneuli referendumis Sedegebi afxazeTSi, sadac gamsaxurdias mTavrobis
monacemebis Tanaxmad, mosaxleobis 60%-ma miiRo monawileoba da aqedan 97%-
ma mxari dauWira damoukideblobas. MmoxsenebaSi aRiniSneba, rom es cifrebi
ar eTanxmeba 17 martis referendumis monacemebs, romelTa Tanaxmad, masSi
monawileoba miiRo afxazeTis mosaxleobis 52.4%-ma da kavSiris
SenarCunebas mxari dauWira 98.4%-ma. moxsenebaSi uaryofiTad aris
gaSuqebuli 31 martis referendumis Catarebis mTeli konteqsti, romelsac
araqarTuli mosaxleobisadmi uSualod prezidentisagan momavali muqara
gasdevda xazad (Compendium of reports on the March 17, 1991 Referendum on the Future of
the USSR, April,1991).
amave dros, somxeTis referendumis Catarebamde ramdenime dRiT adre,
`helsinkis~ komisiam kongresSi warmoadgina rezoluciebi, romlebic
mouwodebda aSS-is xelisuflebas mxari daeWira somxeTis
damoukideblobisaken swrafvas (Resolutions on Armenian Independence, October, 1991).
komisiis Sesabamis moxsenebaSi xazgasmulia somxeTis xelmZRavnelobis
`mSvidi mzadyofna~ da unari uzrunvelyos respublikis damoukidebloba
arsebuli sabWoTa kanonmdeblobis sruli dacviT (Report of the Helsinki
Commission on the U.S. Congressional Delegation Visit to Vienna, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania,
Georgia, Armenia, and Moscow, September 3-10, 1991). 1991 w. 16 oqtombris
saprezidento arCevnebSi ter-petrosianis gamarjveba `evropaSi
usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~ komisiis mier aseve Sefasebulia
rogorc damoukideblobis sakiTxze somxeTis mosaxleobis mxardaWera ter-
petrosianis pragmatuli politikisadmi (Report on the Presidential Elections in
Armenia, Presidential Elections and Independence Referendums in the Baltic States, the Soviet
Union and Successive States, a Compendium of Reports 1991-1992, Commission on Security and
Cooperation in Europe, August 1992, p.82) .
migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli Sefasebebi, romlebic fiqsirdeba Sesabamis
moxsenebebsa da mosmenebSi, amave dros erTiandeba saerTo SefasebaSi
132
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis miarT. es
Sefasebaa: sisxliani dapirispirebebis potencialiT gajerebuli konteqstis
arseboba, romelic eWvqveS ayenebs damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis procesis
demokratiul-samarTlebriv safuZvlebs. amgvari Sefaseba Tavis mxriv
ganapirobebs garkveul orpartiul pozicias, romelic gulisxmobs
politikosTa mxridan raime konkretuli valdebulebebisagan Tavis
Sekavebas.
aRniSnuli saerTo pozicia Cvens mier ganixileba, rogorc partiaTa
`saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametis cvladi, romlic gansazRvravs
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTis brZolis~ sakiTxis aSS-is sagareo
politikis sakiTxad Camoyalibebas.
3.1.3 aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis Sedegebi `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis cvladTan~ mimarTebaSi
amgvarad, `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi,
Sedis ra urTierTqmedebaSi aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis garemos ori
Sris -- saerTaSoriso garemosa da Sidapolitikuri garemos --
parametrebTan da cvladebTan, viTardeba, rogorc aSS-is saagreo politikis
sakiTxi, romelic Tavis mxriv, gardatydeba ra sagareo politikis sistemis
Sesabamis reJimebSi, sabolood yalibdeba, rogorc sistemis gamosavalze
arsebuli Sedegi. sakuTriv rogoria amgvarad Camoyalibebuli sakiTxi?
zemoT ganxiluli urTierTqmedebebis safuZvelze miviCnevT, rom
aRniSnuli sakiTxi dgeba ori aspeqtiT: pirveli, ufro viwro aspeqtiT,
romelic ukavSirdeba uSualod saqarTvelos problematikas, migvaCnia, rom
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemaSi saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis
brZolis sakiTxi dgeba, rogorc sakiTxi qveynisa, romelic realurad ar
aris mzad amgvari amocanisTvis, arc politikuri xelmZRvanelobis, arc
samoqalaqo sazogadoebis, arc ekonomikuri infrastruqturis ganviTarebis
TvalsazrisiT. meore, ufro farTo aspeqtiT, romelic ukavSirdeba
zogadad sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis problematikas, migvaCnia, rom
133
saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis sakiTxi dgeba, rogorc
sakiTxi wevri respublikisa, romlis gamoyofac zogadad miuRebelia TviT
sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis TvalsazrisiT.
Cveni modelis Tanaxmad, amgvarad formirebuli sakiTxi ukve
gardatydeba sagareo politikis sistemis Sesabamis reJimebSi, romlebic
ganpirobebulni arian da reagirebas axdenen saerTaSoriso Tu
Sidapolitikuri Sreebis im parametrebze da cvladebze, romlebTanac
urTierTqmedebs ganxiluli `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~
cvladi. rogorc vuCveneT Cveni kvlevis meTodologiur nawilSi, es
reJimebia:
1) `evropis gafarToebul arealze stabilurobis da mowesrigebulobis
SenarCuneba.~ aRniSnuli reJimi, rogorc iTqva, reagirebs saerTaSoriso
sistemis Sris `komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametrze da Cvens SemTxvevaSi,
ufro viwrod,- `baltiispireTis respublikebis damoukideblobis,~
`sakavSiro xelSekrulebis,~ da `putCis~ cvladebze, romlebic rogorc
aRvniSneT, erTi mxriv, aknineben, sakuTriv `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis mniSvnelobas da, meore mxriv,
eWvis qveS ayeneben mis TavisTavad demokratiul `Rirebulebas.~ rogorc
iTqva, sistemis gamosavalze, mocemuli reJimi gansazRvravs rogorc
deklaraciuli, aseve operaciuli donis Sedegebs, romelTa Sorisac
umTavresad migvaCnia, erTi mxriv, `natos~ da, meore mxriv, `euTk~-s axali
politikuri misiebis ganviTareba.
2) `ganridebis~ reJimi. Cvens konkretul SemTxvevaSi, aRniSnuli reJimi
reagirebs negatiuri Sinaarsis matarebeli mediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~ da
sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ parametrebze. sistemis gamosavalze
amgavri reJimi gansazRvravs deklaraciuli da operaciuli donis
`Caurevlobis~ politikis Sedegebs.
3) specialuri interesebis Sesabamisi `viwro operirebis reJimi.~ Cvens
konkretul SemTxvevaSi, aRniSnuli reJimi, reagirebs ra arasamTavrobo
organizaciebis da analitikuri centrebis mxridan politikur
134
istebliSmentze `Zlieri zemoqmedebis~ parametrze, sistemis gamosavalze
xels uwyobs sakmaod xisti `moralisturi~ politikis ganviTarebas.
4) `qmediTi daxmarebis aRmoCenis SezRuduli unari.~ aRniSnuli reJimi
reagirebs politikuri partiebis `saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ da
`ideologiuri dapirispirebis~ parametrebze. Cvens konkretul SemTxvevaSi,
aRniSnuli reJimi, pirvel rigSi, reagirebs negatiuri Sinaarsis matarebel
`saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametrze da sistemis gamosavalze xels
uwyobs deklaraciuli da operaciuli donis `distancirebis,~ an gandgomisa
da Caurevlobis politikis Sedegebs.
5) `individualur movlenebze individualur reJimSi reagireba.~ aRniSnuli
`reaqtiuli~ xasiaTis reJimi reagirebs sagareo politikis istebliSmentis
`TanamSromlobisa~ da `gamijnulobis~ parametrebis monacvleobaze. Cvens
konkretul SemTxvevaSi, `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~
cvladi ZiriTadad aisaxeba istebliSmentis samive `Stos~ liderebis
negatiuri Sinaarsobrivi datvirTvis mqone `TanamSromlobis~ parametrze.
aRniSnuli reJimi sistemis gamosavalze ganapirobebs e.w. `status qvos~
politikis deklaraciul da operaciul Sedegebs.
aRsaniSnavia, rom sistemis operirebis bolo oTxi reJimi, romelic
ukavSirdeba Sidapolitikuri Sris ideologiuri struqturis parametrebs,
amave dros, reagirebs Sidapolitikuri Sris socialur-ekonomikuri
struqturis `negatiur~ parametrebzec, romlebic, Tavis mxriv,
gansazRvraven `naklebad eqspansiuri sagareo politikis~ reJims.
aSS-is sagareo politikis zemoxsenebul reJimebSi gardatexis da
Sesabamisi gadawyvetilebebis miRebis procesis gavlis Sedegad,
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxi sistemis gamosaval
etapze iRebs, rogorc deklaraciuli, aseve operaciuli donis, negatiuri
Sinaarsobrivi datvirTvis mqone Sedegis saxes (ix. danarTi 3).
kerZod, aRniSnuli Sedegi ewinaaRmdegeba sabWoTa respublikebis
mimarT deklarirebul e.w. `ori-mimarTulebis~ politikas (two-track policy),
romelic senator j. bidenis TqmiT, erTi mxriv, gulisxmobs
135
TanamSromlobas moskovTan SeiaraRebis kontrolisa da sxva saerTaSoriso
mniSvnelobis sakixebze, xolo meore mxriv, iTvaliswinebs pirdapir
urTierTqmedebas respublikebTan demokratiuli ganviTarebis
xelSesawyobad (Biden, J. Hearing before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on European Affairs of
the Committee on Foreign Relations, February 28, 1991, p.19).
aRniSnuli Sedegi ar iTvaliswinebs arsebul rekomendaciebs aSS-is
xelisuflebisadmi daamyaros pirdapiri urTierTobebi da gauwios
pirdapiri daxmareba respublikebs moskovis centralur mTavrobasTan
SeTanxmebis gareSe (Hearing before the Subcommittees on Europe and the Middle East on
Human Rights and international Organizations of the Committee on Foreign Affairs House of
Representatives, March 13, 1991, p.23) .
aRniSnuli Sedegi ugulebelyofs kongresSi warmoTqmul mowodebebs
ganxorcieldes diplomatiuri da ekonomikuri zewola moskovis centralur
xelisuflebaze, respublikebSi damoukideblobis moZraobis winaaRmdeg
represiuli zomebis aRsakveTad.
1990 w. senatis sakomiteto mosmenaze z. bJezinski svamda kiTxvas, Tu
ra unda moemoqmedebina aSS-s, Tuki damoukideblobis moZraobebi iseT
qveynebSi, rogoricaa saqarTvelo, an ukraina winaaRmdegobaSi movidoda
gorbaCovis politikasTan (Bzezinski, July 24, 1990, p.3). rogorc sCans pasuxi am
SekiTxvaze iTvaliswinebda umoqmedebas, rac miuxedavad deklarirebuli
mxardaWerisa demokratiuli procesebisadmi, praqtikulad centraluri
mTavrobis mxardaWeras gulisxmobda.
amave dros, aSS-is amgvari politikis Sedegebi sakmaod
araerTmniSvnelovani aRmoCnda saqarTvelosTvis. erTi mxriv, misi Sida da
gare usafrTxoebis uaRresad myife balansis mdgomareobaSi, saqarTvelo
aRmoCnda klasikuri `usafrTxoebis dilemis~ winaSe, rodesac qveyana,
cdilobs ra sakuTari damoukideblobisa da usafrTxoebis damkvidrebas,
safrTxes uqmnis sxvaTa (am SemTxvevaSi saqarTvelos avtonomiuri
erTeulebis) damoukideblobasa da usafrTxoebas, romlebic Semgom ukve
Tavis mxriv, emuqrebian mis suverenitets. Tumca meore mxriv, arsebuli
136
Sida da gare usafrTxoebis kritikul pirobebSi, saqarTvelo ar misdevs
Zlier saxelmwifosTan e.w. `mitmasnebis~ (bandwagoning) aseve cnobil
politikas, romelsac xSirad axorcieleben susti saxelmwifoebi maTi
usafrTxoebis problemebis pirispir. 1 liberalizmis Teoriis
TvalsazrisiT, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saerTaSoriso asparezze saqarTvelo
ibrZvis im `absoluturi~ ZalauflebisaTvis, romelic mdgomareobs misTvis
sasurveli Sedegis (am SemTxevvaSi damoukideblobis damkvidrebis)
miRwevaSi, da ara im `relatiuri~ ZalauflebisaTvis, romelic mdgomareobs
misi oponentebis daZlevaSi. aRniSnulis fonze, migvaCnia, rom saqarTvelos
magaliTi misi saxelmwifoebriobis ganviTarebis adreul periodSi, e.w.
`hegemonis stabilurobis~ Teoriis sawinaaRmdegod, arRvevs saerTo
stabilurobis im reJims, romlis SenarCunebasac cdilobda aSS evraziis
kontinentze.
3.2 prognozis funqcia
aRwerili mravalfaqtoriani analizis modeli, garkveuli
eqstrapolaciis safuZvelze, amave dros iZleva aSS-is sagareo politikis
sistemaSi saqarTvelos Sidapolitikuri sistemisa da sagareo politikis
orientaciis gansazRvruli cvladebis asaxvis SesaZlo mimarTulebebis
prognozirebis saSualebas. Cvens mier gaanalizebul SemTxvevaSi, modelis
prognozis funqcia ukve bunebrivia Seexeba ara imdenad `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ konkretul sakiTxs, ramdenadac mis droSi
adaptirebul variacias -- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebas,~
romelsac aseve ganvixilavT, rogorc `saqarTvelos suverenitetis
uzrunvelyofis~ farTo parametris cvlads.
am naSromis farglebSi, Cvens amocanas ar warmaodgens amgvari asaxvis
zedmiwevniTi prognozi, Tumca modelis muSaobis ilustraciis mizniT,
1 `mitamasnebis~ politikis Taobaze ix: darCiaSvili, d., pataraia, T. `dabruneba evropaSi? saqarTvelos erovnuli usafrTxoebis zogierTi aspeqti,~ biuleteni, saqarTvelos strategiuli kvlevebisa da ganviTarebis centri, nomeri 44, seqtemberi, 2000, gv. 38-51; rondeli a. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebi, Tbilisis damoukidebeli universiteti, 1996, gv. 122-124.
137
SevecdebiT vuCvenoT aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis is
zogadi tendenciebi, romlebic mosalodneli unda iyos saerTaSoriso
garemos, aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos da aSS-is sagareo politikis
`obieqti~ saxelmwifos, am SemTxvevaSi saqarTvelos, sagareo politikis
orientaciisa da Sidapolitikuri garemos ganviTarebis Sesadar pirobebSi.
kerZod, migvaCnia, rom SedarebiT grZelvadiani periodisaTvis, romlis
ganmavlobaSic:
1. saerTaSoriso garemosaTvis kvlavac damaxasiaTebeli iqneba
`komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametris gagrZelebuli moqmedeba, iseve rogorc
`arastabilurobis axali kerebis~ da `axali safrTxeebis ganviTarebis~
parametrebis moqmedeba (romlebic mWidrod arian dakavSirebuli da
Seadgenen saerTaSoriso garemos `mouwesrogeblobis~, `arastabilurobis~
da `izolacionizmis~ maxasiaTeblebs);
2. aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos socilur-ekonomikuri
struqturisTvis kvlavac damaxasiaTebeli iqneba ekonomikuri zrdis
SedarebiT neli tempis, biujetis deficitis ganviTarebis, da uaryofiTi
savaWro balansis ganviTarebis parametrebi;
3. aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos ideologiuri struqturisTvis
damaxasiaTebeli parametrebidan, mocemul cvladTan mimarTebaSi, kvlavac
gamoikveTeba politikuri partiebis `saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~,
sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~, masmediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis,~
specialuri interesebis `Zlieri zemoqmedebis~ da politikuri
istebliSmentis liderebis `TanamSromlobis~ da liderebsa da
biurokratiul aparats Soris `gamijnulobis~ parametrebi;
4. `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ cvladi,
saerTaSoriso garemos Sreze urTierTqmedebis Sedegad, Tavisi intensivobis
xarisxiT kvlavac miuaxlovdeba `radikalur~ mniSvnelobas; da bolos,
5. saqarTvelos, rogorc `obieqti~ saxelmwifos Sidapolitikur da
sagareo politikis orientaciis sistemaSi ar iqneba miRweuli
mniSvnelovani Zvrebi samoqalaqo sazogadoebis, ekonomikuri
infrastruqturis da regionaluri TanamSromlobis ganviTarebaSi;
138
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxi SesaZloa
Camoyalibdes, rogorc aSS-is sagareo politikis sakiTxi, romelSic
kvlavac Semdegi ZiriTadi aspeqtebi iqneba gamokveTili:
-- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis SedarebiTi
daknineba evraziis kontinentze dsT-s myari stabilurobisa da
usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis pirispir;
-- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis asocireba mis
Sidapolitikur da sagareo urTierTobaTa dapirispirebebTan;
-- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis asocireba
politikuri elitis nacionalistur-Sovinistur ganwyobebTan da
qmedebebTan;
-- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis demokratiul
RirebulebaTa eWvqveS dayeneba.
amgvari `pesimisturi scenariT~ formirebuli sakiTxi, aSS-is sagareo
politikis sistemis zemoT aRweril reJimebSi gardatexis Sedegad, sistemis
gamosavalze, savaraudod miiRebs operaciuli da deklaraciuli donis
Sedegis saxes, sadac Semdegi ori mimarTuleba iqneba gamokveTili: 1.
saqarTvelos mravalmxriv saerTaSoriso forumebSi maqsimaluri CarTvis
xelSewyoba (arsebuli sakiTxebis gadaWris `koleqtiuri~ gzebis Ziebis
mizniT); 2. aSS-is mxridan saqarTvelos politikuri procesebSi qmediTi
calmxrivi monawileobis gamoricxva. meore mimarTuleba, romelic
srulebiTac ar gamoricxavs pirvels, Tavis mxriv, SeiZleba moicavdes: --
saqarTvelos demokratiuli ganviTarebisaTvis teqnikuri daxmarebis
Sekvecas; -- saqarTvelos politikur-eTnikuri konfliqtebis mogvarebaSi
saSuamavlo rolis minimizacias; -- saqarvelos saerTaSoriso
urTierTobebis mxardaWeris minimizacias.
bunebrivia, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis garemos zemoT
CamoTvlili parametrebis gansxvavebuli kombinaciebis SemTxvevaSi,
aRniSnuli sakiTxi sxva saxiT dadgeba aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemaSi
da mis Sesabamis reJimebSi gardatexis Semdgom sxva Sedegis saxes miiRebs,
romelic, savaraudod, gacilebiT ufro optimisturi iqneba. Tumca,
139
migvaCnia, rom aSS-is sagareo politikis yvelaze `pesimisturi~ scenaris
ganviTarebis SemTxvevaSic, qveynis roli msoflio wesrigis e.w. `hegemonuri~
uzrunvelyofis procesSi ar daknindeba, Tuki misi damoukidebeli politika
kvlavac iqneba mimarTuli liberaluri gagebiT `absoluturi" Zalauflebis
miRwevaze.
bunebrivia, yvela SesaZlo kombinaciebis gaTvla, ar Sedis mocemuli
naSromis miznebSi, Tumca vTvliT, rom SemoTavazebuli modeli iZleva
amgvari analizis SesaZleblobas.
daskvna
Cveni kvlevis miznebis Tanaxmad, naSromSi warmodgenilia sagareo
politikis analizis zogadi meTodologia, romelic efuZneba ra
saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa da saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri procesebis
kvlevaTa urTierTmimarTebas, gansazRvravs saxelmwifos sagareo politikis,
rogorc Ria, dinamiuri sistemis konceptualur da operaciul mxareebs.
konceptualur doneze, sagareo politikis sistema warmodgenilia, rogorc
politikur-ideologiuri urTierTqmedebebis erToblioba, romlis
meSveobiTac xdeba sagareo politikis gamtarebeli saxelmwifos
politikur-ideologiuri Rirebulebebis proecireba im saxelmwifos
sazogadoebaze, romlis mimarTac xorcieldeba sagareo politika. Tumca
Zlieri hegemonisa da susti saxelmwifos urTierTqmedebis SemTxvevaSic ki
(mocemul naSromSi, aSS-sa da saqarTvelos magaliTze), amgvar proecirebas
ara aqvs aucilebeli xasiaTi. operaciul doneze, sagareo poltikis sistema
warmodgenilia, rogorc droiTi da sivrciTi urTierTqmedebebis
erToblioba, romelic funqcionirebs Sesabamis garemoSi da reagirebs am
garemosaTvis damaxasiaTebel Sesabamis parametrebze da maT Semadgenel
cvladebze.
SemuSavebuli meTodologia gvTavazobs sistemis operirebis garemos
e.w. `koncentrul~ models, romlis qvesistemebi -- saerTaSoriso sistema,
sagareo politikis `subieqti~ saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema da
140
sagareo politikis `obieqti~ saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema da
sagareo politikis orientacia -- Seadgenen erTmaneTis mimarT
urTierTSeRwevad Sreebs. TiToeuli Sris parametrebi da cvladebi, maTi
politikuri, ekonomikuri da ideologiuri datvirTvis Sesabamisad,
korelaciaSi arian erTmaneTTan da gansazRvraven sagareo politikis
sistemis operirebis zogad reJimebs. mocemuli modeli saSualebas
gvaZlevs gavaanalizoT sagareo politikis konkretuli sakiTxebis
warmoqmnisa da Semdgomi ganviTarebis procesi.
sistemis Sesaval etapze gamoyofilia ori tipis cvladebi: maRali
intensivobis mqone e.w. `radikaluri~ cvladebi, romlebic garkveuli
xarisxiT orientacias ucvlian sistemas da ubiZgeben mas Tvisobrivad
axali Sedegebis miRebisaken; da SedarebiT dabali intensivobis mqone
`liberaluri~ cvladebi, romlebic ar ubiZgeben sistemas axali
Sedegebisaken da mas saSualebas aZleven met-naklebad igive `reJimSi~
gaagrZelos funqcionireba. sistemis gamosaval etapze gamoyofilia
`deklaraciul~ da `operaciul~ SedegTa ori farTo kategoria, romelTa
urTierTmimarTebaTa variaciebi, Tavisi Tanmimdevrulobis xasiaTis
mixedviT, yoveli konkretuli SemTxvevisTvis SeiZleba gansxvavebuli iyos.
sistemis Sesavalsa da gamosavals Soris arsebuli gadawyvetilebebis
miRebis etapze gamokveTilia sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel uwyebaTa
urTierTqmedebis araformalur-funqcionaluri da sagareo politikaze
pasuxismgebeli personaliebis individual-fsiqologiuri faqtorebi,
romlebic, Tavis mxriv, urTierTqmedeben saxelmwifos Sida poltikuri
sistemis cvladebTan.
SemuSavebuli zogadi meTodologia da mis safuZvelze
ganxorcielebuli analizi, amave dros, saSualebas iZleva gaeces dadebiTi
pasuxi saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa disciplinis sam, Cveni azriT,
kardinalur kiTxvas: -- warmoadgens Tu ara saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis
Teoria erTiani socialuri, politikuri, eTikuri da ekonomikuri Teoriis
nawils da amavdroulad moicavs socialuri sinamdvilis Semecnebis yvela
am aRniSnul aspeqts; -- iZleva Tu ara saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis Teoria
141
`normatuli~ Tvalsazrisis ganviTarebis SesaZleblobas, sadac politikis
eTikisa da moralis sakiTxebi iZens iseTive mniSvnelobas, rogorc wminda
racionaluri sakiTxebi; -- cnobs Tu ara saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa
Teoria saxelmwifos Sida politikur Zalebsa da gareSe movlenebs,
rogorc saxelmwifos ganviTarebis Tanabaruflebian faqtorebs.
sagareo politikis analizis zogadi meTodologiis safuZvelze,
naSromSi Camoyalibebulia konkretuli saxelmwifos, aSS-is sagareo
politikis sistemis analizis modeli, romelic sistemis funqcionirebis
zogad principebs warmoaCens konkretul istoriul-geografiul fonze.
mocemul fonze, romelic moicavs civi omis dasrulebisa da uSualod mis
Semdgom periods, rodesac met-naklebi simkveTriT Camoyalibda `axali
msoflio wesrigis~ ganviTarebis konturebi, aSS-is saagreo politikis
sistemis operirebis garemos qvesistemebSi gamoyofilia konkretuli
parametrebi, romlebic, gansazRvraven ra sistemis operirebis zogad
reJimebs, Seadgenen nebismieri calke aRebuli saxelmwifos mimarT aSS-is
sagareo politikis SemuSavebis konteqsts.
a) saerTaSoriso garemos qvesistemaSi, romelic Tavis mxriv
warmodgenilia `mowesrigebuloba-mouwesrigeblobis~, `stabiluroba-
arastabilurobis~ da `integracia-izolaciis~ maxasiaTeblebiT,
gamoyofilia Semdegi urTierTdakavSirebuli parametrebi da maT mier
gansazRvruli reJimebi: 1. `komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametri,
saerTaSoriso sistemas axasiaTebs `mouwesrigeblobis~ da
`arastabilurobis~ maxasiaTeblebis mixedviT da gansazRvravs sistemis
operirebis zogad reJims, romelic mimarTulia evropis gafarToebul
arealze stabilurobis da mowesrigebulobis SenarCunebisaken sagareo
politikis SedarebiT danawevrebuli miznebisa da amocanebis Sesrulebis
gziT. 2. `arastabilurobis axali kerebis aRmocenebis~ parametri
saerTaSoriso sistemas aseve axasiaTebs `mouwesrigeblobis~ da
`arastabilurobis~ maxasiaTeblebis mixedviT da gansazRvravs sistemis
operirebis zogad reJims, romelic mimarTulia mokavSireTa Ziebasa da
erToblivi Zalisxmevis koordinirebaze usafrTxoebis saerTo problemebis
142
gadasaWrelad. 3. `axali safrTxeebis ganviTarebis~ parametri
saerTaSoriso sistemas axasiaTebs ara mxolod da ara imdenad
`mouwesrigeblobisa~ da `arastabilurobis~ mimarTulebiT, ramdenadac
`integracia-izolaciis~ wyvili maxasiaTeblis RerZze, integraciis
mimarTulebiT da gansazRvravs sistemis operirebis zogad reJims, romelic
oTx mimarTulebas moicavs: -- SeiaraRebis gauvrceleblobis globaluri
reJimis xelSewyobas; -- regionaluri usafrTxoebis gaZlierebas; --
marginalur saxelmwifoTa mimarT sanqciebis ganxorcielebas; -- aSS-is
sakuTari Tavdacvisunarianobis gaZlierebas. aRniSnuli sami parametri
aSS-is saagreo politikis sistemas aniWebs operirebis kidev erT
umniSvnelovanes reJims, romelic uSualod ukavSirdeba aSS-is sakuTari
usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofas -- globaluri masStabiT demokratiis
ganviTarebis xelSewyobas. 4. `axali ekonomikuri centrebis Seqmnis~
parametri saerTaSoriso sistemas axasiaTebs `integraciisa~ da
`arastabilurobis~ sakmaod myife balansis mdgomareobiT da gansazRvravs
zogad reJims, romelic sagareo politikis ekonomikur aspeqtebzea
fokusirebuli. 5. `saxelmwifoebs Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis~
parametri saerTaSoriso sistemas axasiaTebs `mowesrigebulobis,~
`stabilurobis,~ da `integraciis~ maxasiaTeblebiT da gansazRvravs
sistemis operirebis reJims, romelic mimarTulia rogorc globaluri
masStabis usafrTxoebis da ekonomikuri keTildReobis misaRwevad, aseve
sakuTriv, aSS-is usafrTxoebisa da ekonomikuri interesebis dasacavad.
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze gamoyofili
saerTaSoriso sistemis parametrebi (da konkretuli cvladebi,)
gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis erTian zogad reJims,
romelSic gamovyofdiT or urTierTSeRwevad dones: globalur dones da
erovnul dones. globalur doneze, sistemis mizania saerTaSoriso
garemos usafrTxoebis, politikuri stabilurobis da ekonomikuri
keTildReobis uzrunvelyofa; erovnul doneze, sistemis mizania sakuTriv
aSS-is erovnuli usafrTxoebis, politikuri stabilurobis da ekonomikuri
keTildReobis uzrunvelyofa. mocemuli doneebi urTierSeRwevadia da
143
sistemis operirebis warmateba erT doneze ganapirobebs mis warmatebas
meore doneze.
b) aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos qvesistemaSi, romelSic cal-calke
ganxilulia socialur-ekonomikuri da ideologiuri struqturebi,
gamoyofili parametrebi da maT mier gansazRvruli reJimebi xasiaTdeba
meti cvalebadobiT, romlis amplitudac, aRebul drois periodSi, moicavs
or fazas.
pirveli faza (1989-1995 w.), romelsac vuwodebT `negatiuri socialur-
ekonomikuri parametrebis~ fazas, xasiaTdeba Semdegi socialur-ekonomikuri
parametrebiT: 1. `ekonomikuri zrdis SedarebiT neli tempi~; 2. `sabiujeto
deficiti~; da 3. `savaWro balansis deficiti~. aRniSnuli parametrebi
moiTxovs ra ekonomikuri resursebis maqsimalur mobilizacias da mkacri
fiskaluri politikis gatarebas, ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis
operirebis reJims, romelic gulisxmobs: -- naklebad eqspansiur sagareo
politikas; da -- sagareo politikis ekonomokuri aspeqtebis wamowevas.
meore faza (1995-2000 w.), romelsac vuwodebT `pozitiuri~ socialur-
ekonomikuri parametrebis fazas, xasiaTdeba Semdegi socialur-ekonomikuri
parametrebiT: 1. `ekonomikis zrdis SedarebiT maRali tempi~; 2. `savaWro
balansis deficiti~; da 3. `biujetis proficiti.~ pirveli ori parametri,
moiTxovs ra aRmavali ekonomikuri ciklis `Serbilebas~ da Sida
resursebis mobilizacias, aseve ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis
operirebis reJims, romelic ZiriTadad gulisxmobs: -- naklebad eqspansiur
sagareo politikas; da -- sagareo politikis ekonomikuri aspeqtebis
wamowevas; xolo `biujetis proficitis~ parametris sapasuxod, romelic
Sida politikur doneze uSvebs naklebad SezRuduli saxelmwifo
fiskaluri politikis gatarebas, sistemis operirebis reJimi gulisxmobs
ufro eqspansiuri sagareo politikis ganxorcielebas.
Sidapolitikuri garemos socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis
SedarebiT mudmivi parametrebi da maTi Semadgeneli cvladebi,
gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis zogad reJims,
romelSic aseve gamivyofT or urTierTSeRewevad globalur da erovnul
144
dones. globalur doneze sistemis mizania globaluri ekonomikuri
stabilurobis xelSewyoba; xolo erovnul doneze -- sakuTriv aSS-is
ekonomikuri interesebis lobireba. aRniSnul doneebze sistemis operirebis
balansi (anu operirebis romeli done aris wamyvani drois garkveul
monakveTze) ganapirobebs sistemis operirebis metad Tu naklebad eqspansiur
xasiaTs, anu im xarisxs, romliTac sruldeba e.w. `amerikuli misia~
msoflio masStabiT.
amave dros, gamokveTilia garkveuli korelacia saerTaSoriso
garemos parametrebsa da Sidapolitikuri garemos socialur-ekonomikuri
paarmetrebs Soris. kerZod, dadebiTi Sinaarsobrivi datvirTvis
korelaciad aris warmodgenili korelacia, erTi mxriv, `komunizmis
damarcxebis,~ `axali ekonomikuri centrebis warmoqmnis~ da `saxelmwifoTa
Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis~ parametrebsa da, meore mxriv, aSS-
is ekonomikuri aRmavlobis `pozitiur~ socialur-ekonomikur paramterebs
Soris. uaryofiTi datvirTvis korealciad aris warmodgenili korelacia,
erTi mxriv, `arastabilurobis axali kerebis warmoqmnis~ da `axali
safrTxeebis ganviTarebis~ parametrebsa da, meore mxriv, aSS-is ekonomikuir
daRmavlobis `negatiur~ socialur-ekonomikur parametrebs Soris. arsebuli
korelacia saerTaSoriso garemos da Sidapolitikuri garemos socalur-
ekonomikuri struqturis parametrebs Soris aisaxeba Sesabamis korelaciaSi
aRniSnuli parametrebiT ganpirobebuli sagareo politikis sistemis
operirebis reJimebs Soris.
Sidapolitikuri garemos ideologiur struqturaSi gamoyofilia
Semdegi wyvili parametrebi: 1. `negatiuri~ socialur-ekonomikuri
parametrebis faza xasiaTdeba politikuri partiebis `idelogiuri
dapirispirebis~ - `saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametriT. `pozitiuri~
socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis faza xasiaTdeba politikuri partiebis
`saxelisuflebo dapirispirebis~ - `ideologiuri daaxloebis~ parametriT.
aRniSnuli parametrebi, korelaciaSia mocemuli periodis aRweril
socialur-ekonomikur da saerTaSoriso garemos parametrebTan da maTi
Semadgeneli cvaldebis intensiobis xarisxTan da gapirobeben aSS sagareo
145
politikis sistemis operirebis reJims, romelic zogadad zRudavs aSS-is
unars aRmouCinos qmediTi mxardaWera, rogorc daSlis piras mdgari, aseve
ukve calkeul respublikebad daSlil sabWoTa kavSirs. sistemis
gamosavalze miRebuli `deklaraciuli~ Tu `operaciuli~ donis Sedegebi ar
gamoirCeva komplementarulobiT da asustebs erTmaneTis efeqturobas. 2.
`negatiuri~ socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis faza xasiaTdeba
erTmaneTTan korelaciaSi myof mediis saerTaSoriso movlenebis `wyvetili
gaSuqebis~ da igive sakiTxebze sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~
parametrebiT. mosaxleobaSi e.w. `gulSematkivrobisagan daqanculobis~
sindromis ganviTarebis fonze, sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~
parametri uaryofiT korelaciaSia politikuri partiebis `saxelisuflebo
daaxloebis~ parametrTan, romelic met-naklebad internacionalisturi
xasiaTisaa. orive parametri amave dros korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso
garemos parametrebTan, romlebic saerTaSoriso garemos warmoadgenen
`mouwesrigeblobis~, `arastabilurobis~ da `dezintegraciis~
maxasiaTeblebiT. .`pozitiuri~ socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis faza
xasiaTdeba aseve erTmaneTTan korelaciaSi myofi mediis saerTaSoriso
movlenebis `intensiuri gaSuqebis~ da sazogadoebrivi azris
`konsolidaciis~ parametrebiT, romlebic, Tavis mxriv, korelaciaSia
saerTaSoriso garemos `axali ekonomikuri centrebis Seqmnisa~ da
`saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis~ parametrebTan.
sazogadoebrivi azrisa da mediis aqcentebis cvalebadoba, erTi mxriv,
`konsolidirebisa~ da `intensiuri gaSuqebis~ parametrebis, da meore mxriv,
`gafantulobisa~ da `wyvetili gaSuqebis~ parametrebis mixedviT, -- rac
didwilad gansazRvrulia saerTaSoriso sistemisa da Sida socialur-
ekonomikuri struqturis cvladebis `radikalizmis~ xarisxiT --
ganapirobebs aSS sagareo politikis sistemis operirebas reJimSi, sadac
erTmaneTs enacvlebian e.w. `internacionalisturi~ da `ganridebis~ doneebi,
romlebic ar arian erTmaneTTan `urTierTSevsebis~ damokidebulebaSi. 3.
rogorc `negatiuri,~ aseve `pozitiuri~ socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis
fazaSi, specialuri interesebis (interesTa jgufebis, arasamTavrobo
146
organizaciebis, analitikuri cenrebis) politikur procesebze zemoqmedebis
TvalsazrisiT, moqmedebs `Zlieri/susti zemoqmedebis~ wyvili parametri,
sadac `Zlieri zemoqmedebis~ parametri dadebiT korelaciaSia
sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ da mediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~
parametrebTan. amave dros, arasamTavrobo organizaciebis da analitikuri
centrebis aqtiurobis xarisxi ZiriTadad korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso
sistemis parametrebis Semadgeneli cvladebis `radikalizmis~ xarisxTan.
specialuri interesebis cvalebadoba aRniSnuli wyvili parametris
mixedviT, sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebas gansazRvravs
sakmaod erTmniSvnelovnad, konkretuli specialuri interesis orientaciis
Sesabamisad. 4. `negatiuri~ socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis faza
xasiaTdeba politikuri istebliSmentis sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli
pirveli pirebis `TanamSromlobis~ parametriT, romelic, pirvel rigSi,
korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebis `radikalizmis~ xarisxTan.
amave periodSi moqmedebs pirvel pirebsa da qveda rgolis biurokratias
Soris `gamijnulobis~ parametri, romelic nawilobriv korelaciaSia
partiebis `ideologiuri~ dapirispirebis parametrTan. politikuri
istebliSmentis operireba aRniSnuli wyvili parametris mixedviT
ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis operirebas yovel calkeuli
movlenaze individualuri reagirebis reJimSi, romelic moklebulia
sistemurobas. `pozitiuri~ sacialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis faza
xasiaTdeba sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel pirvel pirebsa da qveda
rgolis biurokratias Soris `TanamSromlobis~ parametrisa da politikuri
istebliSmentis liderebs Soris `gamijnulobis~ parametris moqmdebiT.
aRniSnuli wyvili parametris moqmedeba, Tavis mxriv, korelaciaSia
saerTaSoriso sistemis Sesabamisi parametrebis cvladebis `radikalizmis~
xarisxis SemcirebasTan da politikuri partiebis `ideologiuri~
daaxloebis parametrebTan. aRniSnuli wyvili parametri ganapirobebs
sistemis operirebas reJimSi, romelic xasiaTdeba meti operaciulobis,
Tumca amave dros meryeobis meti xarisxiT.
147
ganxiluli parametrebiT ganpirobebuli sagareo politikis sistemis
operirebis gansxvavebuli reJimebi, romlebic sistemis muSaobis dinamikaSi
erTmaneTTan winaaRmdegobaSi modian, an piruku avseben da aZliereben
erTmaneTs, sistemis gamosavalze, yoveli konkretuli `obieqti~
saxelmwifos mimarT, gansazRvraven rogorc politikis zogad farTo kurss,
aseve konkretul operaciul Tu deklaraciul Sedegebs.
vTvliT, rom SemuSavebuli zogadmeTodologiuri aparati scdeba ra
e.w case study-is aRwerilobiT teqnologiebs (Stake, 1995), fokusirebas axdens
im politikur procesebze, maT tipebsa da maT Soris arsebul sistemur
kavSirebze, romlebic safuZvlad edeba da gansazRvravs sagareo politikis
sferos da, Sesabamisad, saSualebas gvaZlevs gavakeToT Teoriuli
ganzogadoebebi sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis Taobaze.
naSromSi aSS-is sagreo politikis sistemis analizis modeli
gamoyenebulia aSS-is sagareo politikis warmosaCenad saqarTvelos mimarT,
saqarTvelos saxelmwifoebriobis ganviTarebis erT-erT yvelaze kritikul
- saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis - periodSi. amave dros
aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis konkretuli
gamovlinebis analizis safuZvelze naCvenebia SemuSavebuli modelis
qmediToba.
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZola~ ganxilulia, rogorc
aSS saagreo politikis sistemis garemos `obieqti saxelmwifos~ Sris
cvladi. saerTaSoriso garemos Sreze aRniSnuli cvladi, pirvel rigSi,
urTierTqmedebaSi Sedis `komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametrTan da am
parametris farglebSi moqmed `baltiispireTis respublikebis mier
damoukieblobis gamocxadebis~, `centraluri mTavrobis mier axali
sakavSiro xelSekrulebis gaformebis mcdelobis~ da `putCis Cavardnis~
cvladebTan.
aRniSnuli urTierTqmedebis Sedegebi, erTi mxriv, akninebs sakuTriv
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis mniSvnelobas
sabWoTa kavSiris erTiani struqturis SenarCunebis sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi
148
da, meore mxriv, eWvqveS ayenebs mis TavisTavad `Rirebulebas~ WeSmariti
demokratiulobis SuqSi. Sesabamisad, amgvari urTierTqmedebis rogorc
obieqturi aseve subieqturi Sedegebi xels uwyobs `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis uaryofiT asaxvas sagareo
politikis analizis modelis meore -- aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos
Sreze.
aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos Sreze, aRniSnuli cvladi pirvel
rigSi urTierTqmedebaSi Sedis ideologiuri struqturis aRweril
parametrebTan, kerZod: mediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~, sazogadoebrivi azris
`gafantulobis,~ arasamTavrobo organizaciebis da analitikuri centrebis
`Zlieri zemoqmedebis,~ politikuri partiebis `saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~
da politikuri istebliSmentis sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli
liderebis `TanamSromlobis~ parametrebTan. aRniSnuli urTierTqmedebebis
Sedegad, `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxi yalibdeba,
rogorc aSS sagareo politikis sistemis sakiTxi, romelic, rogorc
uSualod saqarTvelos, aseve sabWoTa kavSiris porblematikis konteqstSi,
erTi mxriv, eWvqveS ayenebs TviT saqarTvelos mzaobas
damoukideblobisaTvis, xolo meore mxriv, ar cnobs sabWoTa kavSiris
daSlis mizanSewonilobas.
SemuSavebuli modelis Sesabamisad, amgvarad Camoyalibebuli
sakiTxi ukve gardatydeba sagareo politikis sistemis Sesabamis reJimebSi,
romlebic, Tavis mxriv, reagireben saerTaSoriso da Sidapolitikuri
Sreebis im parametrebze da cvladebze, romlebTanac urTierTqmedebs
ganxiluli `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi. es
reJimebia:
1. `evropis gafarToebul arealze stabiluribis da
mowesrigebulobis SenarCuneba;~ sistemis gamosavalze,
mocemuli reJimi gansazRvravs rogorc `deklaraciuli~, aseve
`operaciuli~ donis Sedegebs, romelTa Sorisac umTavresad
migvaCnia, erTi mxriv, `natos~ da, meore mxriv, `euTk~-s axali
politikuri misiebis ganviTareba.
149
2. `ganridebis~ reJimi; sistemis gamosavalze aRniSnuli reJimi
gansazRvravs `deklaraciuli~ da `operaciuli~ donis
`Caurevlobis~ politikis Sedegebs.
3. specialuri interesebis Sesabamisi `viwro operirebis reJimi~;
sistemis gamosavalze aRniSnuli reJimi xels uwyobs xisti
`moralisturi~ politikis ganviTarebas.
4. `qmediTi daxmarebis aRmoCenis SezRuduli unari~; aRniSnuli
reJimi xels uwyobs `deklaraciuli~ da `operaciuli~ donis
`distancirebis~ politikis Sedegebs.
5. `individualur movlenebze individualur reJimSi reagireba~;
aRniSnuli reJimi sistemis gamosavalze ganapirobebs `status
qvos~ politikis deklaraciul da operaciul Sedegebs.
aRsaniSnavia, rom sistemis operirebis bolo oTxi reJimi,
Sidapolitikuri Sris ideologiuri struqturis parametrebis kvaldakval,
reagirebs Sidapolitikuri Sris socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis
`negatiur~ parametrebzec, romlebic, Tavis mxriv, gansazRvraven `naklebad
eqspansiuri sagareo politikis~ reJims.
zemoaRniSnul reJimebSi gardatexisa da Sesabamisi gadawyvetilebis
miRebis procesis gavlis Sedegad, `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis
brZolis~ sakiTxi sistemis gamosaval etapze iRebs, rogorc
`deklaraciuli~ aseve `operaciuli~ donis, negatiuri Sinaarsobrivi
datvirTvis matarebeli erTiani Sedegis saxes. aRniSnuli Sedegi: 1.
ewinaaRmdegeba sabWoTa respublikebis mimarT deklarirebul e.w. `ori-
mimarTulebis~ politikas; 2. ar iTvaliswinebs xelisuflebisadmi gaweul
rekomendaciebs, raTa man daamyaros pirdapiri urTierTobebi
respublikebTan moskovis centralur mTavrobasTan winaswari SeTanxmebis
gareSe. 3. ugulebelyofs kongresSi gaJRerebul mowodebebs ganxorcieldes
diplomatiuri da ekonomikuri zewola centralur xelisuflebaze,
damoukideblobis maZiebeli respublikebis winaaRmdeg represiebis
aRsakveTad. amgvarad, aRniSnuli Sedegi, saqarTvelos damoukideblobis
150
mxardaWeris pirispir, realurad uzrunvelyofs sabWoTa kavSiris
centraluri mTavrobis mxardaWeras.
Tavis mxriv, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis aRniSnuli Sedegebi
skmaod araerTmniSvnelovania saqarTvelosTvis, sadac Sida da gare
usafrTxoebis uaRresad kritikul pirobebSi: 1. saqarTvelo, erTi mxriv,
aRmoCndeba klasikuri `usafrTxoebis dilemis~ winaSe da safrTxes uqmnis
mis avtonomiuri erTeulebs, romlebic Semdgom ukve Tavad emuqrebian mis
damoukideblobasa da usafrTxoebas; 2. xolo, meore mxriv, saqarTvelo ar
misdevs Zlier saxelmwifosTan e.w. `mitmasnebis~ (band-wagoning) aseve cnobil
politikas, romelsac xSirad anxorcieleben susti saxelmwifoebi
analogiur viTarebaSi. liberalizmis Teoriis TvalsazrisiT, SeiZleba
iTqvas, rom saerTaSoriso asparezze saqarTvelo ibrZvis im `absoluturi~
ZalauflebisaTvis, romelic mdgomareobs misTvis umTavresi miznis --
damoukideblobis mopovebis -- miRwevaSi. migvaCnia, rom ganxilul periodSi
saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis faqtori e.w. `hegemonis
stabilurobis~ Teoriis sawinaaRmdegod, arRvevs saerTo stabilurobis im
reJims, romlis SenarCunebasac cdilobs aSS evraziis kontinentze.
SemuSavebuli modelis analitikur-SemecnebiTi funqciis garda,
naSromSi asaxulia modelis prognostuli da Sesabamisi aqtorebisTvis
rekomendaciis gawevis funqciebis ganviTarebis SesaZlebloba.
gaanalizebul SemTxvevaSi, modelis prognozis funqcia Seexeba ara
imdenad `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ konkretul sakiTxs,
ramdenadac mis droSi adaptirebul variacias -- `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobis damkvidrebas,~ romelsac aseve ganvixilavT, rogorc
`saqarTvelos suverenitetis uzrunvelyofis~ farTo parametris cvlads.
kerZod, SedarebiT grZelvadiani periodisaTvis, romlis
ganmavlobaSic iarsebebs saerTaSoriso sistemis, aSS-is Sida politikuuri
sistemis da saqarTvelos Sidapolitikuri sistemisa da sagareo politikis
orientaciis Sesadari pirobebis Tavmoyris SesaZlebloba, `saqarTvelos
damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxi SesaZloa Camoyalibdes, rogorc
151
aSS-is sagareo politikis sakiTxi, romelSic Semdegi ZiriTadi aspeqti
iqneba gamokveTili: -- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~
sakiTxis SedarebiTi daknineba evraziis kontinentze dsT-s myari
stabilurobisa da usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis pirispir; --
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis asocireba mis
Sidapolitikur da sagareo urTierTobaTa dapirispirebebTan; --
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis asocireba
politikuri elitis nacionalistur-Sovinistur ganwyobebTan; --
`saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis demokratiul
RirebulebaTa eWvqveS dayeneba.
amgvari `pesimisturi scenariT~ formirebuli sakiTxi, aSS-is sagareo
politikis sistemis zemoT aRweril reJimebSi gardatexis Sedegad, sistemis
gamosavalze, savaraudod miiRebs `operaciuli~ da `deklaraciuli~ donis
Sedegis saxes, sadac Semdegi ori urTierTdakavSirebuli mimarTuleba
iqneba gamokveTili: -- saqarTvelos mravalmxriv saerTaSoriso forumebSi
maqsimaluri CarTvis xelSewyoba (arsebuli sakiTxebis gadaWris
`koleqtiuri~ gzebis Ziebis mizniT); -- aSS-is mxridan saqarTvelos
politikur procesebSi calmxrivi qmediTi monawileobis gamoricxva.
ganxiluli parametrebis gansxvavebuli kombinaciebis SemTxvevaSi,
saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis sakiTxi bunebrivia sxva
formiT Camoyalibdeba aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemaSi da mis Sesabamis
reJimebSi gardatexis Semdgom, savaraudod, ufro pozitiuri Sedegis saxes
miiRebs. Tumca, migvaCnia, rom aSS-is sagareo politikis yvelaze
arasasurveli scenaris ganviTarebis SemTxvevaSic, saqarTvelos roli
msoflio wesrigis e.w. `hegemonuri~ uzrunvelyofis pirobebSi ar
daknindeba, Tuki globaluri demokratizaciis procesSi misi
damoukidebeli politika kvlavac iqneba mimarTuli liberaluri gagebiT
`absoluturi" Zalauflebis miRwevaze.
152
gamoyenebuli literatura
1. aleqsiZe, l. Tanamedrove saerTaSoriso samarTali, Tbilisi,
`saqarTvelos macne,~ 2001 w. gv. 26-52.
2. baraTaSvili, n., `ivane javaxiSvili da saqarTvelos sagareo politikis
orientacis wanamZRvrebi~, disertacia politikur mecnierebaTa
kandidatis samecniero xarisxis mosapoveblad, Tbilisi, 1999.
3. bukia, m. (igive qoCoraZe m.), `sagareo politikis analizis
meTodologiisaTvis,~ politika, Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 78 - 83.
4. bukia, m., `mediisa da sazogadoebrivi azris roli aSS-is sagareo
politikis formirebaSi,~ amerikis Seswavlis sakiTxebi, Tbilisi, 2003, gv.
222-226.
5. bukia, m., `bil klintonis administraciis periodis amerikis SeerTebuli
Statebis Sidapolitikuri sistema da misi gavlena qveynis sagareo
politikis zogierT mimarTulebaze,~ saistorio Studiebi, Tbilisi, 2001,
gv. 172-188.
6. bukia, m., `aSS-is Sidapolitikuri sistema civi omis dasrulebis pirvel
wlebSi da misi gavlena aSS-is politikaze yofili sabWoTa kavSiris
mimarT,~ saistorio Studiebi, Tbilisi, 2000, gv. 38-52.
7. bukia, m., `aSS-is sagareo politikis transformacia evrazis kontinentze
80-ian wlebSi~, qarTuli diplomatia, weliwdeuli, Tbilisi, 2001, gv. 500-
526.
8. gogiaSvili, o. politikuri ideologiebi, Tbilisi, 2004.
9. daviTaSvili, z., `meTodis problema saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis
kvlevisas~, qarTuli diplomatia, weliwdeuli 6, Tbilisi, 1999, gv. 255-261.
10. darCiaSvili, d., pataraia, T. `dabruneba evropaSi? saqarTvelos
erovnuli usafrTxoebis zogierTi aspeqti,~ biuleteni, saqarTvelos
strategiuli kvlevebisa da ganviTarebis centri, nomeri 44, seqtemberi,
2000, gv. 38-51.
153
11. kakaCia, k., `politikuri realizmis amerikuli skola da Tanamedoveoba,~
disertacia politikur mecnierebaTa kandidatis samecniero xarisxis
mosapoveblad, Tbilisi, 2002
12. macaberiZe, m., `erovnuli usafrTxoeba, cneba da Sinaarsi~,
politologiis sakiTxebi, Tbilisi, 1992, nomeri 1, 1991, gv. 17-30.
13. menqiu, g., ekonomikis principebi, Tbilisi, `diogene,~ 2000.
14. oTinaSvili, r. `ekonomikuri usafrTxoebis saxelmwifo strategia,~
saqarTvelos strategiuli kvlevebisa da ganviTarebis centri,
biuleteni, nomeri 73, agvisto, 2002, gv. 2-25.
15. rondeli, a. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebi, Tbilisis damoukidebeli
universiteti, 1996.
16. solana, x., saqarTvelos respublika, 11 Tebervali, 1997.
17. utiaSvili, S. `kavkasiis usafrTxoebis perspeqtivebi. mSvidobiani
kavkasia?~ saqarTvelos strategiuli kvlevebisa da ganviTarebis centri,
biuleteni, nomeri 41, agvisto, 2000, gv. 37-60.
18. qoCoraZe, m. `idealizmi da realizmi amerikis sagareo politikaSi,~
amerikis Seswavlis sakiTxebi, Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 267-275.
19. QqoCoraZe, m., `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZola aSS-is
specialuri interesebis TvalsawierSi,~ amerikis Seswavlis sakiTxebi,
Tbilisi, 2005, (beWdvis procesSi).
20. Wania, v. politologiis safuZvlebi, Tbilisi, 2000. 21. janda, q., beri, j., goldmeni, j., `amerikuli demokratia,~ Tbilsi, 1995 22. Aaron, D. (Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade), "Keeping Market Access on
Track, " Economic Perspectives, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol.5,
No.1, February 2000, http://usinfo.state.gov/journals.
23. ABC/Washington Post, September, 2000.
24. Adelman, C. “Foreign Aid: Effectively Advancing Security Interests,” Harvard International
Review, Fall 2007, pp. 62-68.
25. Albright, M., (President of the Center for National Policy and Research), Opening Statement,
"Foreign Operations, Export Financing, and Related Programs for 1992, " Hearings Before a
Subcommittee of the Committee on Appropriations House of Representatives, One Hundred
154
Second Congress, First Session, April 23, 1991, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington:
1991.
26. Allen D., "'The Context of Foreign Policy Systems: The Contemporary International
Environment", in Clarke M., White, B., Understanding Foreign Policy, Edward Elgar Publishing
Limited, 1989, pp. 60-83.
27. Allison, G. and Robert Blackwill, "America's Stake in the Soviet Future," Foreign Affairs,
1991, vol.70, issue 3, pp.77-97.
28. Almanac of American Politics 1994, National Journal Inc. 1994.
29. American Public Opinion Report, Council Chronicle, The Chicago Council on Foreign
Relations, 1999.
30. Ambrose S.E and Douglas G. Brinkley, Rise to Globalism, American Foreign Policy Since
1938, Penguin Books, 1997.
31. Aron, R. 1967, citirebulia: Rummel, R.J. Understanding Conflict and War: Vol. 4: War,
Power, Peace (http://www.2hawaii.edu/~rummel/wpp.chap2.htm).
32. Aron, R., Peace and War: A Theory of International Relations. F.A. Praeger, New York, 1968.
33. Art, R. J. and Seyom Brown, U.S. Foreign Policy. The Search for a New Role, New York,
1993,
34. Art, R. "Bureaucratic Politics and American Foreign Policy: A Critique," Policy Sciences, 1973
(4), pp.467-490.
35. Atwood, P.L. The United States and Costa Rica, 1945-1960: The Containment of liberal
Nationalism, Boston University, 1990.
36. Bacevich, A.J., American Empire, Harvard University Press, Cambridge,
Massachusetts/London, England, 2003
37. Baker, J. A. (Secretary of State), Prepared Statement, Foreign Operations, Export Financing,
and Related Agencies Appropriations for Fiscal Year 1992; May 23, 1991, U.S. Government
printing Office, Washington, 1991.
38. Baker, J. (Secretary of State), US Approach to Changes in the Soviet Union, Opening statement
from news conference, Washington, D.C., September 4, 1991.
39. Baker, J. (Secretary of State), Conflict in the Soviet Union, Excerpts from remarks during a
meeting of the North Atlantic Council, Brussels, Belgium, August 21, 1991, US Department of
State Dispatch, August 26, 1991.
155
40. Beck, M. D., "To Proliferate or to Control: Russia and Exports of Strategic Technology",
Dissertation, Ph.D., 1998, University of Georgia.
41. Belton, J., (Vice President of the American Enterprise Institute ), "America's Scepticism About
the United Nations," The United States and the United Nations, U.S. Foreign policy Agenda,
USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 2, No.2, May 1997, http://usinfo.state.gov/journals.
42. Bennis, Ph., " Real Reform At the UN, The Progressive Response", Volume 4, Number 34,
September, 2000 , http://www.fpif.org/progrsp/volume4
43. Bialer, S., " The Death of Soviet Communism," Foreign Affairs, 1991, vol.70, issue 4, pp. 167-
18.
44. Biden, J. (Senator), Soviet Disunion: The American Response, Hearing before the U.S. Senate
Subcommittee on European Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations, February 28, 1991,
U.S. Government Printing Office: 1991.
45. Booth, K. and Steve Smith, ed. International Relations Theory Today, the Pennsylvania State
University Press, 1995.
46. Brecher, M. The Foreign Policy System of Israel, London, Oxford University press, 1972.
47. Brown, S., The Faces of Power. Constancy and Change in United States Foreign Policy From
Truman to Clinton, Columbia University Press, New York, 1994.
48. Brzezinski, Z. , "Selective Global Commitment," Foreign Affairs, 1991, vol. 70, issue 4, pp.1-
20.
49. Brzezinski, Z., Statement , Soviet Disunion: Creating a Nationalities Policy, Hearing Before the
Subcommittee on European Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States
Senate, One Hundred Fifth Congress, Second Session, July 24, 1990.
50. Bull, H., “International Theory: The Case for a Classical Approach,” World Politics, 18, 1966,
pp.361-377.
51. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts Tables, May24, May 29,
2002. http://www.bea.gov
52. Bush, G. President of the United States, "A time of Decision for the NATO Alliance",
Intervention at the NATO Summit, Rome, Italy, November 7, 1991, US Department of State
Dispatch, November 11, 1991.
53. Bush, G. President of the United States, Change in the Soviet Union, Excerpts from news
conference, Maine, August 26, 1991, US Department of State Dispatch, September 2, 1991.
156
54. Carpenter, R., H. (Covington and Burling, International Human Rights Law Group),
Referendum in the Soviet Union: Implications for Democratization, Hearing Before the
Subcommittees on Europe and the Middle East and on Human Rights and International
Organizations of the Committee on Foreign Affairs House of Representatives, One Hundred
Second Congress, First Session, March 13, 1991, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington:
1991.
55. "Congress and Foreign Policy:1992," U.S. House of Representatives, 203rd Congress, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, 1993.
56. Chace, J., The Consequences of the Peace, Oxford University press, 1992.
57. Chen, X.Z., "Politics of the Most-Favored-Nation Treatment: An Analysis of the U.S. Trade
Policy Toward China", Dissertation, Ph.D., 1998, Bowling Green State University.
58. Christopher, W. Online News Hour, Farewell: January 14, 1997.
http:www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/international/january97/christopher_1-14.html.
59. Clad, J. C. and Roger D. Stone, "New Mission for Foreign Aid," Foreign Affairs, 1992, vol. 72,
issue 1, pp. 196-205.
60. Clarke, M., "The Foreign Policy System: A Framework for Analysis," in Clarke M., White, B.,
Understanding Foreign Policy, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1989, pp. 27-55.
61. Clarke, M., and Smith S., "Perspectives on the Foreign Policy System: Implementation
Approaches", in Clarke M., White, B., Understanding Foreign Policy, Edward Elgar Publishing
Limited, 1989, pp.163-183.
62. Commission on Security and Co-operation in Europe, "Referendum in the Soviet Union," A
Compendium of Reports on the March 17, 1991 Referendum on the Future of the USSR,
Compiled by the Staff of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, Washington,
DC, April, 1991.
63. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, Report on the Armenian Referendum on
Independence, September 21, 1991, October 1, 1991.
64. Congressional Quarterly Almanac, 1992 .
65. Congressional Quarterly Almanac, "State Department Authorization; Lawmakers Look for
Deep Cuts in Foreign Affairs Spending,", 1995, pp.3-9.
66. Congressional Quarterly Weekly, "Caution is the Watchword on Hill As Putin Takes Charge in
Russia,", January 8, 2000, p. 58.
157
67. Congressional Quarterly Weekly, "The New Faces of Foreign Policy," Special Report,
November 28, 1998, p. 3203.
68. Congressional Quarterly Weekly, "Will a Cold Shoulder Replace Post-Cold War Optimism?"
Special Report, 1999, July 10, p. 1664-1665.
69. Congressional Quarterly, Congress Clears Soviet Aid Bill in Late Reversal of Sentiment,
November 30, 1991.
70. Congressional Quarterly, Strings to Proposed For Foreign Aid, June 2, 1990.
71. Congressional Quarterly, "Crackdown in Baltics Puts U.S. on Diplomatic High Wire," February
2, 1991.
72. Congressional Quarterly, "Foreign Policy Dominates Session with Reporters," May 5, 1990.
73. Congressional Quarterly, "Russia's Yeltsin Charms Congress, But Aid Is Another Question,"
June 22, 1991.
74. Congressional Quarterly, "Seeking a Foreign Policy Lever In a Post-Cold War World," June 8,
1991.
75. Congressional Quarterly, A World of Difference Lurks Behind Foreign Aid Vote, June 22, 1991.
76. Congressional Quarterly, Bush Announces Recognition of Baltics’ Independence, September 7,
1991.
77. Congressional Quarterly, Bush Still Backs Gorbachev, January 27, 1990.
78. Congressional Quarterly, Democrats Look to Defense for Funds to Aid Soviets, August 31,
1991.
79. Congressional Quarterly, Foreign Policy Dominates Session with reporters, May 5, 1990.
80. Congressional Quarterly, House Panel Acts to Shift Foreign Aid Priorities, June 16, 1990.
81. Congressional Quarterly, Seeking a Foreign Policy Lever In a Post-Cold War World, June 8,
1991.
82. Congressional Quarterly, Soviet Aid Package May Be Doomed By Calls to Keep Money at
Home, November 9, 1991.
83. Congressional Quarterly, Supporters Seek U.S. Aid Fore Freed Baltic States, September 7, 1991.
84. Congressional Quarterly,"Lithuanian Events Highlight U.S. Stake in Gorbachev," April 7, 1990.
85. Congressional Record, November 20, 1991.
86. Country Profile Table, The World Bank Group, United States Data profile,
http://devdata.worldbank.org.
158
87. Cumings, B. “The American Way of Going to War: Mexico (1846) to Iraq (2003), ” Orbis, A
Journal of World Affairs, Volume 51, Number 2, Spring 2007, pp. 195-215
88. Dai, A. C., "The End of Cold War Thinking: Change and Learning in Foreign Policy Beliefs
and Identities", Dissertation, Ph.D., 1999 , Yale University.
89. Daly, C.K. U.S.-Turkish Relations, A Strategic Relationship Under Stress, The Jamestown
Foundation, February 2008, http://www.jamestown.org
90. Davis M. D., "The United States, The United Nations, and the Invention of Multinational Peace
Operations", Dissertation, Ph.D., 1998, University of Maryland College Park.
91. De Tocqueville, Alexis, " Democracy in America", Basic Readings in U.S. Democracy, ed. by
Melvin Urofsky, Washington, D.C. pp.80-90.
92. Dougherty, James E. and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., Contending Theories of International
Relations, A comprehensive Survey, Longman, 1996.
93. Drucker, P. F., The New Realities, Harper Collins Publishers, 1994.
94. Dybvik, R. , Balancing Domestic Needs with World Leadership, Wireless Files, March 18,
1992.
95. Easley, S. L., "From Finish to Start: Linearity, Advocacy, and Symbolism in United States
Foreign Aid Policymaking", Dissertation, Ph.D., 1999, Case Western Reserve University.
96. East, M., "National Attributes and Foreign Policy," in Why Nations Act: Theoretical
Perspectives for Comparative Foreign Policy, edited by Maurice East, Stephen Salmore, and
Charles Hermann, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1978.
97. Easton, D. A Systems Analysis of Political Life, The University of Chicago Tribune, Press,
1979.
98. Economist, May 20th, 2000, Vote for China’s Freedom, pp. 21-22.
99. Economist, July 1st, 2000, "A French Lesson" , pp. 31-32.
100.Elston, J. U., " United States Security Policy and the UN in the Post Cold War Era, Dissertation,
Ph.D., 1998, The University of Nebraska.
101.Enders, W., Vice President, International Strategy and Policy, Director, Hicks and Associates,
Inc. (14 marti, 2000, piradi interviu)
102.Fabbrini S. and Daniela Sicurelli, “Bringing Policy-Making Structure Back In: Why Are the US
and the EU Oursuing Different Foreign Poicies?” International Politics, The Hague, May 2008,
Vol. 45, Issue 3, pp. 292-300, at http://proquest.umi.com
159
103.Facing a Changing World, Institute for National Strategic Studies, http://www.ndu.edu.
104.Fairbanks, C., The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Director, Johns Hopkins University,
Washington, D.C. (23 marti, 2000, piradi interviu)
105.Farrands C., "The Context of Foreign Policy Systems: Environment and Structure", in Clarke
M., White, B., Understanding Foreign Policy, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1989, pp. 84-
107.
106.Flank Document Agreement to the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, U.S. Senate
Republican Policy Committee, Legislative Notice, May 9, 1997 .
107.Freedom Support Act, 1992 CQ Almanac, pp. 525-531.
108.Frelich, R. M., "The Vietnam Syndrome and its Influence on United States Decision-Making in
the Gulf War," Thesis, M. A.,1998, University Laval (Canada).
109.Gaddis, J. L., "Toward the Post - Cold War World," Foreign Affairs, 1991, vol. 70, issue 2,
pp.114-122.
110.Gallup, July, 2000.
111.Gallup/CNN/USA Today, January 1992.
112.Geddes, B., "Paradigms and Sand Castles in Comparative Politics of Developing Areas", in
Comparative Politics, Policy, and International Relations, North-western University Press,
Evanston, Illinois, 1991, pp. 59-62.
113.Gentry, M. C., " From Containment to Inclusion: United States Foreign Economic Policy and
the Former Soviet Union", Dissertation, 1999, University of South Caroline.
114.George, A. L., "The Operational Code: A Neglected Approach to the Study of Political Leaders
and Decision-Making," International Studies Quarterly, 1969 (2), pp.190-222.
115.Gergen, D., " America's Missed Opportunities," Foreign Affairs, 1992, vol., 71, issue 1. pp.2-
19.
116.Gerner, D. J., " Foreign Policy Analysis: Renaissance, Routine, or Rubbish?" in Comparative
Politics, Policy, and International Relations, Northwestern University Press, Evanston, Illinois,
1991. pp.123-185.
117.Goldstein, J., International Relations, Longman, 2003.
118.Granieri, R.J. “ Allies and Other Strangers: European Integration and the American Empire by
Invitation,” Orbis, A Jornal of World Affairs, vol. 50, number 4, Fall 2006, pp.691-707.
160
119.Green M. J. and Daniel Twining, “Democracy and American Grand Strategy in Asia: the
Realist Principles Behind an Enduring Idealism,” Contemporary Southeast Asia, April 2008,
Academic OneFile, Bunche Library – Department of State, at http://find/galegroup.com
120.Hamilton, H. E., "The Public Deploys the Troops? Public Opinion and Public Deliberation over
United States Military Involvement in Somalia", Dissertation, Ph.D., 1999, The University of
Iowa.
121.Hamilton, L.H., (Representative from Indiana, member of the House Committee on Foreign
Affairs), "A Democrat Looks at Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs, 1992, Vol. 71, Issue 3, pp.
32-51.
122.Hartmann, F., America's Foreign Policy in a Changing World, Harper Collins College
Publishers, 1994.
123.Hassig R.C., and Kongdan Oh, "North Corea: A Rogue State Outside the NPT Fold", Today's
Nuclear Equation, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, March 2005,
http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/
124.Hearing: U.S. Policy Toward the OSCE, Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe,
October 10, 2002. http://www.csce.gov
125.Henning, J. International Strategy and Policy, Director, Hicks and Associates, Inc. (14 marti,
2000, piradi interviu)
126.Hill, F., "A Not-So-Grand Strategy: United States Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Since 1991", Politique Entrangere, February 2001.
http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/views/articles/fhill/2001politique.htm
127.Hinich, M. and Michael C. Munger, Ideology and the Theory of Political Choice, 1994
http://www.press.umich.edu/titles/10198.html.
128.Hofferbert, R., 1974, citirebulia: Sabatier, Paul, "Public Policy: Toward Better Theories
of the Policy Process," in Comparative Politics, Policy, and International Relations.
Northwestern University Press, Evanston, Illinois, 1991. p273-275.
129.Hoffmann, 1965, citirebulia: Rummel, R.J. Understanding Conflict and War: Vol. 4:
War, Power, Peace (http://www.2hawaii.edu/~rummel/wpp.chap2.htm).
130.Holsti, K.J. International Politics: A Framework for Analysis, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, Prentice-
Hall, 1978.
161
131.Holsti, O. R., Richard A. Brody, Robert C. North, "Measuring Effect and Action in the
International Reaction Models: Empirical Materials from the 1962 Cuban Crisis," Journal of
Peace Research, 1964 (1) pp. 170-190.
132.Holsti, O. R., Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy, University of Michigan, 1997.
133.Holum, J. D. (Acting Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security
Affairs), "New Security Threats: The U.S. Response," U.S. Security Policy in a Changing
World, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 3, No.3, July 1998. http://usinfo.state.gov/journals.
134.Hook, S.W and John Spanier, American Foreign Policy Since World War II, A Division of
Congressional Quarterly Inc. Washington, D.C. 2000.
135.Horelick, .A L. (the Rand Corporation), Statement, Hearings before the Defence Policy Panel of
the Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives, 102 Congress, First Session, July
30, 31, August 1, 1991, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington: 1992.
136.Huliaras, A, “Evangelists, Oil companies and Terrorists: The Bush Administration’s Policy
towards Sudan,” Orbis, A Journal of World Affairs, vol. 50, number 4, Fall 2006, pp. 709-724.
137.International League for Human Rights, "Human Rights in the USSR: Seeking Compliance of
the National Laws with International Standards," Comments on the USSR's Third Periodic
Report to the Human Rights Subcommittee, October 15, 1989.
138.Jarvik, L. “NGOs: a ‘New Class ‘in International Relations,” Orbis, A Journal of World Affairs,
Volume 51, Number 2, Spring 2007, pp. 217-238.
139.Kaarbo J., “Coalition Cabinet Decision Making: Institutional and Psychological Factors,”
International Studies Review, March 2008, Vol. 10, at http://proquest.umi.com
140.Kalaitzidis, A. “Adding the Domestic Determinants to Greek Foreign Policy,” Journal of
Political and Military Sociology,” DeKalb: Winter 2007, Vol. 35, Issue 2, pp. 219-237, at
http://proquest.umi.com
141.Kingdom, J., citirebulia: Sabatier, Paul, "Public Policy: Toward Better Theories of the
Policy Process," in Comparative Politics, Policy, and International Relations. Northwestern
University Press, Evanston, Illinois, 1991. p278-279.
142.Kissinger, H., Diplomacy, Touchstone, Rockefeller Center, New York, 1994.
143.Kugler, J., "The Study of War and Peace: Quo Vadis?" in Comparative Politics, Policy, and
International Relations, Political Science: Looking to the Future, Edited by William Crotty,
Northwestern University Press, 1991, pp. 187-213.
162
144.Kupchan, C.A, "Proposals for Renewing the Atlantic Partnership," US Foreign Policy Agenda,
An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol. 9, No.2, June 2004,
http://usinfo.state.gov/journals.
145.Lahneman, W. J., Anchoring American Foreign policy in the Absence of a Clear and Present
Danger (Role Realignment), Dissertation, Ph.D. 1999, Johns Hopkins University.
146.Laqueur, W., " Russian Nationalism," Foreign Affairs, 1992, vol. 71, issue 5, pp.103-116.
147.Leach J. A., "A Republican Looks at Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs, 1992, vol. 71, issue 3,
pp. 17-31.
148.Lieber, K. A.,. and Robert J. Lieber, "The Bush National Security Strategy", U.S. Foreign
Policy Agenda, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol. 7, No.4, December
2002. http://usinfo.state.gov/journals
149.Lindsay, J. M., "The New Partisanship: The Changed Politicks of American Foreign Policy, "
U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, September 2000, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 5-8.
150.Lindsay, J.M., "The New Apathy", Foreign Affairs, September/October, 2000.
http://www/brook.edu/views/articles/lindsay/2000sept_fa.htm
151.Lindsay, J.M. "Looking for Leadership", The Brookings Review, Winter 2000, vol. 18. No.1.
pp.40-43
152.Logan, D. L., "Facing Islamic Fundamentalism: A Case for Principled Engagement in United
States Policy", Dissertation, M.A., 1998, Regent University.
153.Lundestad, G. , East, West, North, South; Major Developments in International Politics: 1946-
1996, Scandinavian University Press, Oslo, 1997.
154.Mandelbaum, M., Bush Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, 1991, vol.70, issue 1, pp.6-22.
155.March, J., and Johan Olsen, "The New Institutionalism: Organizational Factors in Political
Life," American Political Science Review, September, 1984, pp. 734-749.
156.McArdle, C., " U.S. Policy toward Europe", in Robert Art, Seyom Brown, U.S. Foreign Policy.
The Search for a New Role, New York, 1993, pp. 270-288.
157.McClelland, C.,, "The Beginning, Duration, and Abatement of International Crises:
Comparations in Two Conflict Arenas," in International Crises: Insights from Behavioral
Research, edited by Charles F. Hermann, New York, Free Press, 1972.
158.Merton, R. K. "Bureaucratic Structure and Personality" in Merton, ed., .Reader in Bureaucracy,
1952, New York: Free Press, 361-71.
163
159.Mills, P. B., " Diplomatic Recognition as Coercive Diplomacy: The Inter-American
Experience", Dissertation, Ph.D., 1999, The University of Arizona.
160.Moon, B. , “The Foreign Policy of the Dependent State,” International Studies Quarterly, 1983,
pp. 315-340
161.Moore, David, "Governmental and Societal Influences on Foreign Policy in Open and Closed
Nations, " Comparing Foreign Policies, edited by James N. Rosenau, New York: John Wiley &
Sons for Sage Publications, 1974.
162.Morgenthau, H.J., Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, New York,
Alfred A. Knopf, 1948.
163.National Security Strategy for a New Century, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary,
December 1999, http://www.pub. whitehouse.gov.
164.Newsom, E. D. (Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs), Security Assistance:
"The Bridge Between Diplomacy and Use of Force", U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, Preventing
Conflict: Military Engagement in Peacetime, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No. 3, December
1999. http://usinfo.state.gov/journals.
165.Notter, J. and John McDonald, "Building Regional Security: NGOs and Governments in
Partnership", U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changing World, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 3, No.3,
July 1998. http://usinfo.state.gov/journals.
166.Nye, J. S., Jr. "What New World Order? " Foreign Affairs, 1992, vol. 71, issue 2, pp. 83-96.
167.Nye, citirebulia: White, B., "Analysing Foreign Policy: Problems and Approaches," in
Understanding Foreign Policy, Edited by Michael Clarke and Brian White, Edward Elgar
Publishing Limited, 1995, p. 11.
168.Nye, J. S., "U.S. Security Policy: Challenges for the 21st Century," U.S. Security policy in a
Changing World, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 3, No.3, July 1998.
http://usinfo.state.gov/journals.
169.Oberdorter, D., From the Cold War to a New Era. The United States and the Soviet Union
1983-1991, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998.
170.Odom, W., E. and Robert Dujarric, "Commonwealth or Empire?" Hudson Institute, 1995.
171.Ornstein, N. J., "Foreign Policy and the 1992 Election," Foreign Affairs,1992, vol. 71, issue 3,
pp. 1-16.
164
172.Oxford Analytica, “US/Middle East: Will US Nuclear Umbrella be Extended?” May 22, 2008,
at: http://www.oxan.com
173.Oxford Analytica, “US/Pakistan: Policy Reforms Seek to Stem Terrorism” May 1, 2008, at: http://www.oxan.com
174.
175.Papava, V. , “The Political Economy of Georgia’s Rose Revolution,” Orbis, A Journal of World
Affairs, Volume 50, Number 4, Fall 2006, pp. 657-667.
176.Paget, K. M., "The Balanced Budget Trap," The American Prospect Online, Issue 29,
November-December 1996, http://www.americanpropsect.com/archives
177.Paterson T.G and Dennis Merrill, Major Problems in American Foreign Relations, Volume I
and Volume II, D.C. Heath and Company, 1995
178.Pettman,R., Human Behaviour and World Politics, London, Macmillan, 1975.
179.Pickering, T. R., "The Changing Dynamics of U.S. Foreign Policy-Making," The Making of
the U.S. Foreign Policy, Vol. 5, Issue 1, March 2000, pp. 5- 10.
180.Pipes, R. (Harvard University, Cambridge, MA), Soviet Disunion: The American Response,
Hearing before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on European Affairs of the Committee on Foreign
Relations, February 28, 1991, U.S. Government Printing Office: 1991.
181.Posner E. and Adrian Vermeule, “The Credible Executive,” The University of Chicago Law
Review, Chicago, Summer 2007, Vol. 74, Issue 3, pp. 865-914, at http://proquest.umi.com
182.Polat, A. Reassessing Andijan: The Road to Restoring U.S.-Uzbek Relations, The Jamestown
Foundation, June 2007, http://www.jamestown.org
183.Powell, Colin L, From Globalism to Regionalism, in New Perspectives on U.S. Foreign and
Defence Policies, Edited by Patrick M. Cronin, National Defence University Press, Washington,
DC, 1993. pp. 135-136.
184.Raanan, U., Prepared Statement, "Soviet Disunion: Creating a Nationalities Policy," Hearing
Before the Subcommittee on European Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations, United
States Senate, One Hundred Fifth Congress, Second Session, July 24, 1990.
185.Rarick, C. “Economic Sanctions: Failed Foreign Policy Tool and a Cost to American Business,”
Economic Affairs, September 2007, pp. 65-71, Academic Onefile. Bunche Library – Department
of State, http://find.gaalegroup.com
165
186.Referendum in the Soviet Union, A Compendium of Reports on the March 17, 1991
Referendum on the Future of the USSR. Compiled by the Staff of the Commission on Security
and Cooperation in Europe, Washington, DC, April, 1991.
187.Referendum in the Soviet Union: Implications for Democratization. Hearing before the
Subcommittees on Europe and the Middle East and on Human Rights and International
Organizations of the Committee on Foreign Affairs House of Representatives, One Hundred
Second Congress, First Session, March 13, 1991, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington:
1991.
188.Report of the Helsinki Commission on the U.S. Congressional Delegation Visit to Vienna,
Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Georgia, Armenia, and Moscow, September 3-10, 1991.
189.Report on the October 28, 1990 Supreme Soviet Elections in Georgia, November 27, 1990,
Elections in the Baltic States and Soviet Republics, A Compendium of Reports on Presidential
Elections Held in 1990, compiled by the Staff of the Commission on Security and Cooperation
in Europe, Washington, DC, December 1990.
190.Report on the Presidential Elections in Armenia, Presidential Elections and Independence
Referendums in the Baltic States, the Soviet Union and Successive States, a Compendium of
Reports 1991-1992, Compiled by Staff of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in
Europe, Washington, DC, August 1992.
191.Report on the September 30, 1990 Supreme Soviet Elections in Azerbaijan, October 25, 1990,
Elections in the Baltic States and Soviet Republics, A Compendium of Reports on Presidential
Elections Held in 1990, compiled by the Staff of the Commission on Security and Cooperation
in Europe, Washington, DC, December 1990.
192.Republican National Committee Website. http://rnc.org/school/contract.html
193.Resolutions on Armenian Independence, OSCE Digest, October 1991.
194.Rieff, D. "A New Hierarchy of Values and Interests," World Policy Journal, Vol. 16, No. 3, Fall
1999, pp.28-34.
195.Ripley, R., Congress, the Bureaucracy, and Public Policy, Brooks/Cole Publishing Company,
1990.
196.Ronayne, P. V., " Never Again? The United States and the Prevention and Punishment of
Genocide Since the Second World War", Dissertation. Ph.D., 1999, University of Virginia.
166
197.Rosenau, J. N. “Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy,” 1966 , citirebulia Gerner,
Deborah J. " Foreign Policy Analysis: Renaissance, Routine, or Rubbish?" in Comparative
Politics, Policy, and International Relations. Northwestern University Press, Evanston, Illinois,
1991. pp. 134-135.
198.Rummel, R. Understanding Conflict and War: Vol.4: War, Power, Peace , 1979
http://www2.hawaii.edu/~rummel/WPP.chap2.htm
199.Sabatier, P., "Public Policy: Toward Better Theories of the Policy Process," in Comparative
Politics, Policy, and International Relations. North-western University Press, Evanston, Illinois,
1991, pp. 265-266.
200.Schonberg, K. K., " Moments of Transition in American Foreign Policy", Dissertation, Ph.D. ,
1998, University of Virginia.
201.Schwarz, B. “America’s Think Tank,” Columbia Journalism Review, New York, May/Jun
2008, vol. 47, pp. 61-63.
202.Seitz, R. G. (Assistant Secretary of State), Statement Before the Subcommittee on Europe and
the Middle East of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, June 13, 1990, pp. 73-75.
203.Senate Endorses $1.5 Billion in Soviet Loan Guarantees, CQ, May 18, 1991.
204.Shelton, H. H. (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), " Shaping a Better World: Military
Engagement in Peacetime," U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, Preventing Conflict: Military
Engagement in Peacetime, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No. 3, December 1999.
http://usinfo.state.gov/journals.
205.Simes, D., (Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Statement,
"Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs Appropriations for 1992,"
Hearings Before a Subcommittee on Appropriations House of Representatives, One Hundred
Second Congress, First Session, April 23, 1991, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington:
1991.
206.Simon, J. , "Partnership for Peace: Charting a Course for a New Era", U.S. Foreign Policy
Agenda, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol. 9, No.2, June 2004,
http://usinfo.state.gov/journals
207.Singer, J. D., "The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations," International Politics
and Foreign Policy. Edited by James N. Rosenau. New York: Free Press. 1969.
167
208.Smith, M.," Comparing Foreign Policy Systems: Problems, Processes and Performance", p. 191,
in Clarke M., White, B., Understanding Foreign Policy, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1989,
pp. 185-212.
209.Snyder, R.C., Bruck, H.W. and Sapin, B., "Decision-making as an Approach to the Study of
International Politics," Foreign Policy Analysis, Series No.3, Princeton University,
citirebulia: Gerner, Deborah J. " Foreign Policy Analysis: Renaissance, Routine, or
Rubbish?" in Comparative Politics, Policy, and International Relations. Northwestern University
Press, Evanston, Illinois, 1991. pp. 134-135.
210.Sokolski, H.D., "After Iran: Keeping Nuclear Energy Peaceful," Today's Nuclear Equation, An
Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, March 2005, http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/
211.Sorensen, Th., ‘Kennedy’, New York: Harper & Row, 1965, p.509, citirebulia:
Hartmann, F., America's Foreign Policy in a Changing World, Harper Collins College
Publishers, 1994.
212.Sprout, H. and Sprout, M., The Ecological Perspective on Human Affairs, Princeton University
Press, 1965, citirebulia: Clarke M., White, B., Understanding Foreign Policy, Edward
Elgar Publishing Limited, 1989.
213.Stake. R., "The Art of Case Study Research," Sage Publications, 1995.
214.Starostenko, R., " American-Ukrainian Foreign Relations: From the Declaration of Ukrainian
Independence, December 1, 1991 to the End of the First Clinton Administration, 1995",
Dissertation, M.A. 1998, University of Houston-Clear Lake.
215.Strobel, W. P., "The Media: Influencing Foreign Policy in the Information Age, The Making of
the U.S. Foreign Policy, Vol. 5, Issue 1, March 2000, pp.38-42.
216.Taft, J., "Non-Governmental Organisations: The Voice of the People," The Making of the U.S.
Foreign Policy, Vol. 5, Issue 1, March 2000, pp. 27-32.
217.Tarnoff, P., 'Forging a Foreign Policy that Reflect American Values, p.7, U.S. Foreign Policy
Agenda, vol. 1, November 4, March 1996, pp.5-8.
218.The National Election Studies Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior,
http://www.umich.edu/~nes/nesguide.
219.Thorne, L. Testimony to the Subcommittee on Human Rights and International Organizations of
the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, November 2, 1989, U.S. Government Printing Office:
1990.
168
220.Topic, G., "A Long Tradition of Cooperation and Support," Improving Lives: Military
Humanitarian and Assistance Programs, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State,
November 2004, http://usinfo.state.gov/journals
221.U.S. Department of State Dispatch, "New opportunities in US-Soviet Relations," September
16, 1991.
222.U.S. Department of State Dispatch, Gist: US-Soviet Economic Policy, August 12, 1991.
223.U.S. Department of State Dispatch, November 11, 1991.
224.U.S. Department of State Dispatch, October 7, 1991.
225.USA Today, January 1989 – December 1995.
226.USA Today, January 1996 – September 2002.
227.Wallace,W., Foreign Policy and the Political Process, London, Macmillan, 1971.
228.Washington Post, January 1996 -- September 2002.
229.Washington Post, January, 1989- December 1995.
230.Washington Post, June 20, 1994.
231.Watson, C., "U.S. National Security Policy Groups", Greenwood Press, 1990.
232.White House Fact Sheets, NATO's Evolving Role in Atlantic Security, Office of the Press
Secretary, Rome Italy, November 8, 1991.
233.Williams, W. The Tragedy of American Diplomacy, A Delta Book, New York, 1982.
234.Woodruff, W., "The Burden of Power in a Fragmented World", The World Today, vol.48, no.6,
June 1992, pp.103-108.
235.Wilson, J., Bureaucracy : What Government Agencies Do and Why They Do It, Basic Books,
1989.
236.World Bank, World Development Report, 1992, p. 219.
237.Wright, J. M., " The Evolution of American Peacekeeping: A Tool of United States Foreign
Policy", Dissertation, M.A., 1998, Dalhousie University (Canada ).
238.Yankelovich, D., " Foreign Policy after the Election," Foreign Affairs, 1992, vol 71, issue 4,
pp. 1-12.
239.Zoelick, R. B. Under Secretary of State for Economic and Agricultural Affairs and Counsellor,
Prepared Statement, "Soviet Disunion: The American Response," Hearing before the U.S.
Senate Subcommittee on European Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations, February 28,
1991, U.S. Government Printing Office: 1991.
169
240.Zoellick, R. B. Under Secretary of State for Economic and Agricultural Affairs and Counsellor,
Statement before the Subcommittee on Europe and the Middle East of the House Foreign Affairs
Committee, "Relations of the United States with the Soviet Union and the Republics,"
Washington, DC, October 2, 1991.
241.Ujyxfhjd L& D&^ Ujynfhtdf B& D& @Ddtltybt d gjkbnbxtcre. yfere&@ >hbcn& Vjcrdf&
1996&
242. Cegzy^ D&<& Fvthbrfycrfz "rjyjvbrf% Yjdst Htfkmyjcnb b ghbjhbntns XXI Dtrf^ Vjcrdf
2001&
243. Rfxfhfdf D&D& Cjwbfkmyj-"rjyjvbxtcrfz Gjkbnbrf U&Uedthf^ 1929-1933 uu& Rfyl&
Lbccthnfwbz^ Vjcrdf^ 1980&
170
danarTebi
danarTi 1.
saerTaSoriso sistema
subieqti saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema
obieqti saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema da sagareo politikis orientacia
saerTaSoriso sistema
171
danarTi 2.
cvladi
garemos Sesabamisi parametrebi da cvladebi
sagareo politikis sakiTxi
mocemuli parametrebiT
ganpirobebuli Sesabamisi reJimebi
gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesi
Sedegi