8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 1/24

Conflict in the South China Sea: 

Derailing China’s ‘Peaceful Development’?

  . 

PF Internasjonal Politikk Og Økonomi

 

Oslo, Norway

September 8, 2011

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 2/24

 

• Conflicting sovereignty claims

 –  na an   energy secur ty

•China’s

 

rise 

and 

challenge 

to 

U.S. 

primacy –  Secure Sea Lines of  Communication (SLOC)

 –  Control beyond second island chain

• ASEAN’s assertion of  centrality and regional 

autonomy

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 3/24

 

South 

China 

Seaclaimants:

•China

•

Taiwan•Vietnam

•The Philippines

•Ma aysia•Brunei

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 4/24

UN Commission on Limits of  Continental Shelf   – May 13, 2009

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 5/24

China’s 9‐dash 

ne‐

s ape 

ma   la in  

claim 

to 

over 

o   t e 

Sea

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 6/24

Binh Minh 02

Incident

Reed Bank

Incident

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 7/24

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 8/24

 

•  

contains 

 –  10 times more than its gas reserves

• na c a ms  a   ooses a ou   m on 

tons of  oil annually or about 40% of  its total 

o s ore 

pro uc on 

ue 

o 

e 

ac v es 

o 

countries in the South China Sea. 

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 9/24

 

•  

800 deep‐water wells in the East Sea, Yellow 

producing 500 million tons of  oil by 2020.

 

reserves by 40% in next two decades

• etnam s  omest c gas  eman   w   tr p e  y 

2025 (World Bank)

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 10/24

China’s Rise and 

Challenge to U.S. Primacy

•

China’s 

economy 

will 

overtake 

the 

U.S.• Military modernization

 –  Submarine fleet

 –  Anti‐carrier ballistic missile

• Anti‐access/area denial

 

• Yulin Naval Base, Hainan Island

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 11/24

First 

and 

Second 

Island 

Chains

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 12/24

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 13/24

 

Base, Sanya 

ug  o 

28 

Feb 

08

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 14/24

Yulin Naval Base

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 15/24

Secure 

Sea Lines of  Communication

•

100,000 

ships 

transit 

Straits 

of  

Malacca 

annually

• >25% of  world’s traded goods pass through 

South China Sea

• 25% of  all oil shipments carried by sea pass 

.  

mission cubic metres per day)

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 16/24

SLOC Strategic Overview

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 17/24

a nan 

Island

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 18/24

China’s ‘String of  Pearls’

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 19/24

ASEAN’s Assertion of  Centrality and 

Regional Autonomy

• Zone of  Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (1971)

 

(1976)

• Declaration on Conduct of  Parties in the South 

China Sea (2002)

• ASEAN Regional Forum

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 20/24

ASEAN’s Assertion of  Centrality and 

Regional Autonomy

ASEAN‐centric multilateralism

•

East Asia Summit expansion• ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM)

• ADMM Plus

• Pursuit of Code of Conduct

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 21/24

Derailing China’s ‘Peaceful 

Development’?

•

Regional 

“arms 

dynamic”•  

 – Kilo submarines, Gepard frigates

 –  n ‐s p m ss es

• Force modernisation by the Philippines

• U.S. military activities in China’s EEZs

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 22/24

 

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 23/24

Derailing China’s ‘Peaceful 

Development’?•  

Sea policy‘   –  

second lesson’

• Lea ers ip transition at next congress o   t e 

Chinese Communist Party

• Build up of  civilian maritime  jurisdiction 

enforcement fleet

8/4/2019 Thayer Conflict in the South China Sea

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea 24/24

Conflict in the South China Sea: 

Derailing China’s ‘Peaceful Development’?

  . 

PF Internasjonal Politikk Og Økonomi

 

Oslo, Norway

September 8, 2011