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The 8th8
PROGRAM BOOK
6 &
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The 8th
8
: 11/16() 16:40~17:00
:
:
.
1LG 15
2 VR 2017
3
SKT NUGU
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The 8th8
November 16 (Thu.)2017. 11. 16()
B
003 002 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
The 8th
8
The 8th
8
,
8
.
2010 ,
, ,
, ,
.
:
. (AI), 4
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.
.
. .
, .
, .
(Decent Work) .
.
, ,
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.
.
4 ,
. , ,
. 4.0
4.0 .
,
.
CJ
005 004 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
The 8th
8
The 8th
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8 2017 11 7
.
. ,
.
.
,
.
? .
.
, ,
.
8 2017 11 7
, ,
6.
007 006 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
The 8th
8
The 8th
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The 8th8
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008
012
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087
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Contents
009 008 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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11 16() 2
6
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14:00 - 16:306
(B)
( & )
?
6 &
The 8th8
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013 012 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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8
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6 6
,
.
, , , .
:
( 2017), :
( 2017), When flexibility meets familialism:
Two tales of gendered labour markets in Spain and South Korea(Journal of
European Social Policy 2016), : , ,
( 2016) .
. 4
. ,
.
. (
) 4.0(Work 4.0)
. .
,
.
/
/
/
015 014 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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8
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6 6
: ,
: Uber , AMT
: 4.0
The 8th Asia Future Forum
2017.11.16
, , ( )
O (resilience) - -
O Always in transition :
O (Uber)(Amazon Mechanical Turk) 4.0(indutry 4.0)
- - (product innovation)(process innovation)(https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/content/product-and-process-innovation)
O
O ,
O
4
4 CPS, , (Arvind A., 2016)
CPS(Cyber-Physical Systems) : , , ->
: The Fourth Industrial Revolution : Things to Tighten the Link Between IT and OT
.
017 016 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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6 6
Digital
Economy
(OECD, 2015)
4
(UNCTAD, 2017)
,
,
,
4
4
Industry 4.0, , , , (MiklsGUBN & Gyrgy KOVCS, 2017)
4(process innovation)
4
: Industry 4.0 Challenges and solutions for the digital transformation and use of exponential technologies. Delortte
: Impact of digitalisation and the on-demand economy on labour markets and the consequences for employment and industrial relations
On-demand economy : (, 2017)
Gig economy : (McKinsey, 2015)
Gig Economy
. ,
Gig Economy
019 018 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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:
: Frey and Osborne (2013), The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization? University of Oxford.
O Frey and Osbourne(2013)
O Frey and Osbourne(2013)47% 10 20
O 702,
O , , , , , ,
O ,
.
: Hall, Jonathan V., and Alan B. Krueger(2015), An Analysis of the Labor Market for Ubers Driver-Partners in the United States
. 1
Gig Economy :
: the Survey of Adult Skills(PIAAC, 2012) , OECD(2016)
.O OECD(2016) , Frey and Osbourne(2013)
O Frey and Osbourne(2013)(an occupation-based approach) OECD(2016) (a task-based approach)
O ,
O OECD(2016) OECD 21 9%
:
: OECD(2016)
: ICT
:
(communicative
task)
:
.
O 12%, 6%
O , ,
O , .
O
O , , . (communicative tasks), ICT(),
021 020 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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: On-demand work platform Uber Case Study
-> Job replacement
: ?
: ?
: ?
. 4
:
:
: OECD(2016)
. 4 O , ,
O (1930) (technology unemployment). (automation)(substitution effect)
O , (compensation effects). Arntz et al.(2014)(labour-saving technology effect)
O Autor at al.(2003), ,
() Uber Case Study
Q. ? ( - 2016 6), . ?
()
() Uber Case Study
Q. ? ( - 2016 6)
:
023 022 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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() Uber Case Study
2015.05
2015.06 4152
2015.12
Q. ?
() Uber Case Study
Q. ?
. .
, ->
, .
, . -> 80% , ->
, .
() Uber Case Study
2017 1 ->
2016 10 , , , , -> '(employer)' '(worker)' .-> (, 2016)
() Uber Case Study
+
, Job
EZ10( 40 km 15 kV 10)
() . 2025
, .
Q. ?
025 024 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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AMT(Amazon Mechanical Turk) AMT case study
: Hitlin, Paul, Research in the Crowdsourcing Age, 2016, a Case Study, Pew Research Center
. Mechanical Turk
O AMT(requesters)(workers)(tasks)
O
O (free-agent workers)
O (gig economy)(social contract), ,
AMT(Amazon Mechanical Turk) : Crowd work platform AMT case study
: https://www.mturk.com/mturk/welcome
. Amazon Mechanical Turk
O Mechanical Turk 2005(Amazon), 18
O CEO(Jeff Bezos)AMT, . artificial artificial intelligence
O , AMT
AMT(Amazon Mechanical Turk) AMT case study
: Hitlin, Paul, Research in the Crowdsourcing Age, 2016, a Case Study, Pew Research Center
. Mechanical Turk
-
AMT
24
2~3
,
AMT(Amazon Mechanical Turk) AMT case study
: Hitlin, Paul, Research in the Crowdsourcing Age, 2016, a Case Study, Pew Research Center.
. Mechanical Turk
027 026 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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:
: James Manyika, Susan Lund, Jacques Bughin, Kelsey Robinson, Jan Mischke, and Deepa Mahajan, 2016, Independent work: Choice, necessity, and the gig economy, McKinsey Global Institute.
. 15
O
O (independent workers)
O McKinsey Global Institute(2016)15, 25~30% . 15%. 6%
AMT(Amazon Mechanical Turk) AMT case study
O AMT workers1) , - 51%( 36%), 88% 50( 66%)
2) 5-. 7.25, 52% 5. 540 1. 8% 8
3) 63%- 53% AMT , 25% AMT . AMT, ,
O AMT requesters- 2015 1278, - 36%, 31%.- 61% 10,
:
: McKinsey Global Institute(2016) , 2017. : ,
. 15 O , 2013 2013 48( 10% 48) 20, 2020, 150~250
O 15, 15%(Freelance Physician, Deliveroo, TaskRabbit, Uber, Upwork), 2400(Etsy, eBay, DaWanda) . 900, 130, 300(Airbnb, Boatbound, Getaround, BlaBlaCar)
O . ,
,
, ,
, , Uber
Amazon Mechanical Turk
eBay
Airbnb
4.0 Industry 4.0 case study
: Federal Ministry of Labour and social affairs, based on Hirsh-Kreinsen, 2016
. O 4(industry 4.0)
O 4.0, ICT
O , ,
O , --
029 028 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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:
O ? 1) , ,
2) , , Skill-based technological change Routine-based technological change(Goos, Manning, and Salamons 2014)
3) Process innovation, Product innovation Platform economy
- - :
4) , 2 (, )
5) .
4.0 Industry 4.0 case study
: Federal Ministry of Labour and social affairs, based on Hirsh-Kreinsen, 2016
. O , 4.0
O 4.0.
O . -. ,
O (Airbus, Bosch 2017).
:
: David H. Autor, 2015, Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 29, No. 3.
. EU:(1993~2010)O 16, 7
O
O ,
O , (nonroutine tasks), , ,
O ,
:
: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee(2016)
. GDP
O ,
O 5% 80% , 1%
O 1975. GDP
O
O Suan Fleck, John Glaser and Shawn Sprague 1947-2000GDP 64.3%, 2010 3 57.8%
031 030 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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O 1) , 2) (decent work) 3) : , , /
O 1) ,
(Esping-Andersen 1999)2) : workfare
3) : ,
4) :
5) 6)
:
: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee(2016)
. GDP
O GDP 1998 GDP
O
O 1) , .
()- - ?
2) Crowd Work
3) 2 : ?
- -
4) ?: marginalization
O 1) : 2) + robotization
:
: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee(2016)
O :
O 1% ( vs ) (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41095004)
O ,
O
033 032 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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. 70%
:
.
.
: (2013)
4: 1) 2) 3) 4) (Mastercard 2013)
:
: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee(2016)
O
O Informal sector ,
O -
O
O Crowd Work
https://hbr.org/2016/05/the-countries-that-would-profit-most-from-a-cashless-world
. ''
: (2017.05.16) '' ...
034 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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6
&
037 036 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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6 6
Rutgers , 2003
. , ,
,
SSK [ ] .
, 2013 .
, - . , ,
, , Comparative Politics, Journal of European Social Policy, Policy
& Politics, Asian Survey , The Political Economy of the Small
Welfare State in South Korea (2017, Cambridge University Press),
(2015, ) .
?
,
.
.
,
. ,
. .
.
. , ,
.
039 038 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
The 8th
8
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6 6
?
( )
... , ,
, , ,
, , , ,
( . , 1988: 64).
(work) (leisure) , (the least
advantaged) .
, (public
funds) (John Rawls, 1988: 257).
I.
(Basic Income) . 2016 6 2500 (
300 ) .
2017 2,000 2 560 ( 69 )
.
. , Utrecht 250
960 ( 117 ) .
2020 750 ( 92 )
.
. 2017
43
. , 8
7
( 21, 1145 . 2017.1.10.).
. ,
.
(cognitive work)
.
. ,
, .... ,
...
. ( , 2017: 257).
,
. ,
,
,
.
, ,
. ,
. , ,
. ,
,
(Rawls, 1988). ,
, ( , 2011).
,
.
, .
.
II. (Basic Income) , ,
1.
, '
'(BIEN: Basin Income Earth Network) .
, ,
1)
. ,
(household) (individual) , , ,
(unconditional) , ,
1) A basic income is a periodic cash payment unconditionally delivered to all on an individual
basis, w ithout means-test or work requirement (www.basicincome.org/basic-income).
041 040 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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(Periodic) , , (in-kind) ,
(cash payment) , ,
(means test) (universal) .
,
(full basic income)
(partial basic income) .
.
,
.
2.
1) : vs.
.
.
Milton Friedman 1962 Capitalism and Freedom (negative
income tax) . 4 $3,600
(AFDC, Food Stamp ) .
1 $3,244 , $10,000 ( 1,200
) 4 . ,
. 3,600
, 50% ( )
.2) 7,200 (GI, Guranteed Income)
(Moffitt, 2003).3) ,
, .
,
(poverty trap)
. (Murray, 2008).
. 16 < >
. , ,
. ,
2) 3,600 ,
. . , 50%
( ,
3) M ilton Friedman. 1962. Capitalism and Freedom. Chicago: Chicago University Press; Robet A.
Moffitt. 2003. The Negative Income Tax and the Evolution of U.S. Welfare Policy. Journal of
Economic Perspectives. Vol.17(3): 119-140.
( , 2014: 7
). 1875 < > ,
.
.
. ,
, (social income) ,
.
.
.
.
(Van der Veen
and Van Parijs, 2006).
(abundance) .
, .
.
2)
.
4 . . 2
. , , , ,
, , , ,
. ,
.
.
1970 ,
.
,
. ,
. , ,
, , gig
, ( , 2017).
, ,
, .
, .
.
2016 (WEF) 4 2020 710
043 042 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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8
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6 6
, 200 .
10
. 100% 600
50 (The
Economist 2017. 01. 14, 2017 ).
,
. ,
.
3.
,
. ,
. , ,
. 2016 6
2500 ( 300 )
. 2020
750 ( 92 )
,
. 2016
, 43
. .
1)
2017 560 (partial basic
income) . , 2,000
2 . ,
. 20%
, 2
. , .
. ,
,
( , 2016).
2)
2016 30 ( 40 )
. .
.
5,000
.
.
.
, .
, < > (12 ), (13~18 ),
(19-29 ), (65 ) + ( , ) .
100 ( 8 3 3 )
. 2,800 28 . , 5,000 30 ( 2 5 )
. 15 . < > 28 400 7%
, < > [ ]
15 .
.
0~5 , 19~24 , 65
, 1 40% 2
30 ~35 , 60% 10 , 3
10 .
( 21. 1152 . 2017.3.8.).
III.
. ,
4
.
.
045 044 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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1. ?
1) vs.
,
. . ,
.
( . . , 2017).
.
< 1> (2000-2016)
< 1> , . OECD
2008 , Industry 4.0
.
. 4 ,
.
< 2>
: .
: (12 ),
(8 ).
2000 2,116 2016 2,624 .
2003 954 2017 1,334 400 .
2000 OECD
. (substitution
effect) .
(scale effect)
.
,
. , , , , , 5 ,
. 5
. , , .4)
,
. , , 70% .
4) . , , ,
100% .
.
. . ,
( ), . ,
. .
047 046 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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30% ,
70% .
, (EITC) .
,
.
,
( )
. , 19 29 100 ( 8
3 ) , 750 , 7 5 .
,
. 2016 9.8% .
20% . 100
, 20%
500 .
. , 6
, 40 .
, 40 , .
.
60 , 80 ,
. ,
(EITC)
. ,
, .
2) ( )
< 3> , 2
. OECD
. , GDP 40%
.
. 2014
, .
,
.
< 3> , ,
: Socio-Economics History Bloc
https://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2009/05/23/us-tax-revenues-tanking-bond-bub
ble-bursting/Accessed on March 10 2017
,
. , 100 5,000
, 600 . 2017 400 ,
. , . 5,000 10
120 60 . 2017 39 , 65
70% 20 10 ,
11 , 4
, 10 .
. .
, .
. , ,
, , .
, . ,
.
.
, .
049 048 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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8
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6 6
. ,
. ,
. , .
.
, ,
. ,
.
.
,
. ,
( )
.
2. 4 ?
, 4 .
,
. .
?
1
. 19 ( , Luddites) , 1930
(technological unemployment) , 1980
( , 2017).
. ,
. Silicon Valley Rust Belt
.
< 2>
: (2017)
4
. , ,
.
,
.
(Jason Furman) .
.
.....
. , ,
,
. [ ]
(US Executive Office of the President, 2016: 38).
051 050 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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< 3> ( )
: (2017)
< 2> < 3> , 50
.
.
.
.
.
(Abstract Tasks) (Manual Tasks) (Routine Tasks)
. , ( )
. .
.
.
( , 2017; , 2017: 18).
4 (scale effect)
.
, 4
.
Rust Belt Silicon Valley .
. ,
. ,
, .
. ,
.
,
,
. ,
.
.
1800 1900 .
Karl Marx [ ]
( )
.
.
,
, .
.
19 20
(Keynesian Welfare State) .
, , .
. , 8
.
.
,
.
, . 4
.
.
3. ?
, ?
. ,
. TV
, .
, . 1
, 2015 1 17 100 1915
( , 2017: 36). 100
. 1991
053 052 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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8
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8
6 6
, .
, .
,
. ,
,
. .
.
.
.
, ,
.
(stakeholder grants) . ,
. , , , , ,
. ,
. ,
(Dual Nation)
. .
. ,
. .
.
, . ,
, , ,
, ,
, .
( , 2017).
, .
. .
20 2 36
2 . .
( ) ,
. .
( , 2017).
.
.
. , .
.
.
IV.
.
.
...... , ,
,
(2017: 261) .
. (
) ( , 2014),
,
( , 1987)
.
, , (2014: 19) ,
, , .
...... ,
.
.
(Winkelmann and Winkelmann, 1995).
, .
, ,
.
055 054 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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, , , , , . 2017. 4 . KDI
.
. ?. 8(2): 40-68.
. 2016. ?: (needs)
. 43(4):79-107
. 2017. : .
2017 3 .
. 2016. . 1148 . .
. 2016. , , .
18 (2016.12 )
. 2017. .
( . 2017.2.1.)
. 2017. . .
. 2017. : , , .
33(3): 253-269
. 2017. 4 . Vol.
66.
( ). 1987. - :
. ( ). 1988. I : .
( ). 2014. : .
( ). 2014. : .
. 2017. 4 : .
.
Executive Office of the President. 2016. Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the
Economy.
Fiedman, M ilton. 1962. Capitalism and Freedom. Chicago: Chicago University Press.
Moffitt, Robet A. 2003. The Negative Income Tax and the Evolution of U.S.
Welfare Policy. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 17(3): 119-140.
Murray, Charles. 2008. Guaranteed Income as a Replacement for the Welfare
State. Basic Income Studies: An International Journal of Basic Income Research. 3(2)
Rawls, John. 1974. Reply to Alexander and Musgrave. The Quarterly Journal of
Economics. Vol.88(4): 633-655.
Rawls, John. 1988. The Priority of Rights and Ideas of the Good. Philosophy &
Public Affairs. 17(4): 251-276.
Van der Veen, Robert and Philip Van Parijs. 2006. A Capitalist Road to
Communism.Basic Income Studies: An International Journal of Basic Income
Research. 1(3)
Vasek, Thomas. 2013. WORK-LIFE BULLSHIT: Warum die Trennung von Arbeit und
Leben in die Irre fuuhrt. Munchen: Riemann Verlag. (2014). .
W inkelmann, Liliana and Rainer W inkelmann. 1995. Happiness and unemployment:
a panel data analysis for Germany. Applied Economics Quarterly. 42(4): 293-307.
057 056 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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MIT ,
, .
, , Electoral Studies, Party Politics, Journal of European
Social Policy, Social Science Journal 15 2
. , , , .
.
.
, .
,
. .
,
. ,
,
.
059 058 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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,
: ,
1
, , (gig economy), . : lazy welfare queens: ,
2 4 AI (automation)
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 2 / 57
. .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 1 / 57
. : , 2016 7 16 (Basic Income Earth Network; BIEN) , .
.
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 3 / 57
,
.
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 4 / 57
061 060 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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:
:
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 6 / 57
?
, . = .
, ,
.
, ,
. .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 5 / 57
:
BIEN
, (a periodic cash payment unconditionallydelivered to all on an individual basis, without means-test or workrequirement)
5 1 : . , .
2 : . (voucher) (in-kind transfers) .
3 : , .4 : 5 : .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 7 / 57
:
BIEN
, (a periodic cash payment unconditionallydelivered to all on an individual basis, without means-test or workrequirement)
1 : ( ), ( )
2 (means condition) (work condition) 1 (means-unconditional)
(work-conditional): ,
2 (work-unconditional) (means-conditional): (lazy welfare queens),
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 8 / 57
063 062 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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:
, 2016; Murray, 2008; Van der Veen and Van Parijs, 2006; Van Parijsand Vanderborgt, 2017.
: , ( , )4 : 2016 (World EconomicForum; WEF) OECD 15 500
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 10 / 57
:
( )1 - Milton Friedman(1962): (negative income tax)2 - : Thomas More(16), Karl Marx(19)
(): Bertrand Russell, Thomas Paign(): F.A. Hayek
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 9 / 57
:
: futurism.comJungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 11 / 57
:
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 12 / 57
065 064 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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:
: International Federation of Robotics, 2015Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 14 / 57
:
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 13 / 57
:
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 15 / 57
:
(demand-driven economy): .(deadweight loss) (work incentive)
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 16 / 57
067 066 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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:
Herbert Simon (Boston Review, October 2000)Christopher Pissarides (at the 2016 World Economic Forum)
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 18 / 57
:
Silicon Valley CEOs and Scientists
Ellon Musk (CEO of Tesla and SpaceX)Richard Branson (CEO of Virgin Group)Andrew Ng (chief scientist at Baidu)Sam Altman (Prisident of Y combinator; start-up incubator)Bill Gross (Co-founder of Pacific Investment Management)Chris Hughes (Facebook Co-founder)
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 17 / 57
:
, ; , 2016; , 2016; , 2016; Greenstein,2017.
1 1 (The Luddites) .
, , : = , Rust belt = Silicon Valley
2 .
ex. (Earned Income Tax Credit: EITC)
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 19 / 57
:
1 2 (cf. 2018 = 630 ) 30 , 10%p (, 2016)
! - .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 20 / 57
069 068 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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:
Luzi Stamm, a Swiss MP, right-wing Swiss Peoples Party: (BBC, June 2016).Joe Biden, Former Vice President under Obama, Democrats: (The Hill, September 2017).Lodewijk Asscher, a Dutch MP and former Minister of Social Affairsand Employment, Labour Party: , (Radar Extra, August, 2017).
= .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 22 / 57
:
Brynjolfsson, Professor at MIT Sloan School of Management (MITTechnology Review, June 2016)Robert Gordon, Economist at Northwestern Univ. (MIT TechnologyReview, June 2016)Charles Wyplosz, Economist at Geneva Graduate Institute (TheGuardian, June 2016)
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 21 / 57
:
,
: (random assignment) .
, ., , .
(ex.) 1000 (social experiment) .= .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 23 / 57
2017 1 (The Social Insurance Institution ofFinland, Kansanelkelaitos, KELA)
DV: ( )
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 24 / 57
071 070 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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: (2 )
: 2000: 560 . 2. 560 . .: . .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 26 / 57
: 25-68
.
: Power Calculation : 550 , : (basic social securitybenefits) 550
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 25 / 57
:
: Ville-Veikko Pulkka, 2017, "Notes on the Finnish Basic IncomeExperiment"
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 27 / 57
:
(large-scale fieldexperiment): Olli Kangas
KELA : (goodenough if the first phase)
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 28 / 57
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KELA
KELA
Power Calculation cf. PC
1 : 2 ,
3
2 .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 30 / 57
KELA
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 29 / 57
: ?
:
vs.
?
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 31 / 57
:
: KELA
:
560 400 ., , 2 2 . .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 32 / 57
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""
2009 8.3% . 0% ( 1/4 2013 )
- 7 -
(bias) 3) KELA
(4) 1) 2009 8.3% . 0% ( 1/4 2013 ) 2)
1. GDP
: Eurostat; (2016, 18)
2.
: Eurostat; (2016, 18)
3. (1) , ! 1) vs. 2) , (work unconditionality) 3) 4) , . 5) , KELA , , , .
(2) (external validity) : , .
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2.6 2.4 3.8 0.8 -0.7 -5.1 1.6 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 1.3 1.0 3.9 2.8 4.1 5.2 0.7 -8.3 3.0 2.6 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7 0.2 4.3 2.8 4.7 3.4 -0.6 -5.2 6.0 2.7 -0.3 1.2 2.6 4.1 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.6 -0.6 -4.3 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.9 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.7 3.7 3.3 1.1 -5.6 4.1 3.7 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.7 2.8 1.6 2.4 2.4 0.2 -2.9 2.0 2.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.2 3.5 3.7 1.7 -3.8 1.4 1.7 -1.1 -0.2 1.4 2.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 6.0 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.0 6.6 6.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 6.9 6.4 8.2 8.4 7.8 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.4 7.4 7.7 7.1 6.1 6.2 8.3 8.6 7.8 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.4 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.3 5.6 7.6 7.8 8.1 7.9 7.6 6.1 5.3 10.4 11.2 10.1 8.5 7.4 7.6 7.0 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.6 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.0 7.4 9.1 9.3 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.3 10.4 5.7 5.9 5.0 4.2 3.7 4.4 5.0 5.0 5.8 7.3 7.4 6.9
: Eurostat; (2016, 18)
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 34 / 57
Hawthorn Effect:
, (ex. TheEconomist, June 2017)
: (bias)
KELA
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 33 / 57
:
vs. , (work unconditionality)
, ., KELA , , , .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 35 / 57
: (external validity)
, .
, .
1
2
3 4
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 36 / 57
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, , .
- . ?
: DV Hawthorn Effect
KELA : Spill-over Effect( , ), Spill-over effect (Rosenbaum, 2010)
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 38 / 57
, , , [ vs. ]
(financial incentives) (Job Training)
,
(work-unconditional benefits) , - X
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 37 / 57
1 2015 1 Participation Act (PA) : (social
assistance recipients) , (ex. 1 5 ,, ) = workfare!
2 : 3 , =
4
, , . (Utrecht), (Tilburg), (Groningen) / (Ten Boer), (Wageningen), (Nijmegen), (Deventer), (Amsterdam)
5 , 2017 4 PA-Annex
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 39 / 57
, 200 5
0 (reference): PA .1 (control): PA 2 (exemption): 960 , PA
(re-integration duty) 3 (exemption group with intensified exposure):
4 (exemption group with service bonus): 150
5 (labor market incentive group): PA , 50%
DV1 program effectiveness: , , (debt)2 : , , , ,
PA (work-unconditionality)
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 40 / 57
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0 (reference): PA ()1 (control): PA ()2 (exemption): 960 , PA . , ( )
3
4 PA , 50% . , 199 .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 42 / 57
, : PA-Annex (2017 4 )
, (insufficient effort) = ( , ?) 199
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 41 / 57
PA-Annex
PA-Annex
PA-Annex . (Wageningen), (Nijmegen), (Deventer).
: PA-Annex
PA, PA-Annex
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 43 / 57
PA-Annex ()
, 5
PA-Annex ()
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 44 / 57
081 080 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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., PA-Annex .
1 ( )
2 199 PA : =
. , 5 .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 46 / 57
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 45 / 57
: ?
workfare vs. welfare .
() , . .
()
, ( ).
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 47 / 57
: Spill-over Effect
PA workfare .
Spill-over effect ,
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 48 / 57
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5 ( ) .
: (internal validity) , Spill-over effect , , : . PA " " : ,workfare , .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 49 / 57
(gold standard)
.
, ,
, .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 51 / 57
:
, , vs.
, ,
, (bias) .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 52 / 57
085 084 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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. , .
(2016): , . . ?
.(2016): (ex. ,) ,
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 54 / 57
:
,
welfare vs. workfare
, (social assistance beneficiaries) , -(work-unconditionaland means-conditional) : BIEN .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 53 / 57
.
: vs. : welfare vs. workfare
.- ., () .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 55 / 57
: ,
, =
.
Hawthorn effect , .Spill-over effect .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 56 / 57
087 086 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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, . , . . , . .
Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 57 / 57
( )
(
Head of Prop Trading, Quantitative Strategies, Automated Trading, Bank of
America Merill Lynch, New York)
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.) ,
.
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089 088 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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, .
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Moore Utopia ( ) .
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. 30 , 20
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091 090 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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.
, , ( , ,
2016; , , 2017).
( , 2013). ( )
. , ,
. ,
,
( 2017: 131).
.
(Basic Income Earth Network:BIEN)
.
(2017a, 2017b) , , ,
, , , .
.
.
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.
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.
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( 2017).
,
. , ,
(Van Parijs 1997)
.
( )
, , , 4
( 2017). 1 ,
2 , IT 3 4
(Haldane 2015). 4
. (sharing
economy) (platform economy) (Schor 2014;
Sundararajan 2017)
. , ,
(Kenny and Zysman 2016)
(Schor 2014).
(Scholz 2016).
.
( 2017).
, , 1
(
2017). (workforce on demand),
(liquid labour), (crowdsourcing) .
,
( 2017).
( 2017).
093 092 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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( )
( )
. , ( )
?
.
1. ?
, .
, 5 ( , , , ,
) . . ,
? van Parijs(2006)
.
- - ,
, .
, ( , )
( , 2017).
.
2. ?
. 4
? .
. Future babble: why expert predictions fail and why we believe
them anyway ( : )
1).
1) ( , p.115),
(p.385),
(p.65),
.
.
, , .
.
, , , (2017a). : .
, , , (2017b).
, 69(3), 289-315.
(2013). :
(2017). 2017 2 2
, , , , , , , , , ,
(2017). .
.
, , (2017). :
, , (2016). ? , 23(2),
201-237.
Haldane, A. G.(2015). Growing, fast and slow. Speech given at University of East
Anglia, 17.
Kenny, M. and Zysman, J.(2016).What is the future of work? Understanding the
platform economy and computation-intensive automation, BRIE Working Paper
2016-9.
Scholz, T.(2016).Platform Cooperativism: Challenging the Corporate Sharing
Economy, Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, New York Office
Schor, J.(2014).Debating the Sharing Economy, Great Transition Initiative.
Sundararajan, A.(2017).The Collaborative Economy: Socioeconomic, Regulatory and
Policy Issues,Directorate General for Internal Policies, Policy Department A: Economic
and Scientific Policy, European Parliament.
Van Parijs P.(1997). Basic Income: Guaranteed Minimum Income for 21st Century?.
Fundacio Rafael Campalans.
095 094 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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OECD ,
GDP (
.) .
.
, ,
5) .
.
( , )
. ,
,
. , ( , )
, , , ? ,
.
4. ?
. .
. ,
( , 2013). ,
(Andersson, 2000).
. M.Friedman(Capitalism and
Freedom) , Werner, C.Murray,
( ) .
.
, ( ) .
5%
. .
,
.
, ( ) .
.
5) &
( , 2015) .
4 ? 4 1940 .
1940 (Albert Carr) , 1948
, 1955 , 1970 , 1984
4 , 1990
2) . , 1,202 CPU,
176 GPU 1 , 20
5 ( , 2016).
, AI, 3D ( )
. ,
. ,
, .
,
.
3. ?
Van parijs, Guy standing
. .
.
( ) . ,
,
3) . , 4) -
- .
43 , (2014) 305 .
. GDP
(p.341), Y2K
(p.371), 2008
(p.259) (
). , .
?
2) 4
. , , 3
( , 2016).
3)
( , 2015: Kim&Moon,
2017).
4) floating pool
. , .
096 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract
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(2014). 2012 ,
, p.280-325. : .
(2016). " , , 4 " FUTURE HORIZON , 28:
4-5
(2015). " " , 67(4):
203-224
(2017). " , ? - , ,
" . 54: 81-119
(2013). : , ?
, 23(1): 91-122.
Andersson, J. (2000). The history of an idea In van der Veen, R. and Groot, L.
(eds.), Basic income on the agenda Amsterdam: Amsterdam University.
Kim & Moon(2017). "A study of Trade-off relationship between incom security and
social services" 2017 EASP conference
Van Parijs, P. (2006). Basic income. In Ackerman, B., Alstott, A., and van Parjs,
P. (eds.), Redesigning distribution, pp. 7-38. New York: Verso.